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ADAPTATION, OCEANS-CLIMATE CHANGE AND ROAD TO COP 15 COPENHAGEN
Hendra Yusran Siry Presented at the Journalist Workshop 'Road To Copenhagen', "Are We Ready for Climate Change Adaptation?" Bogor, 23 October 2009
Adaptation (i)
• A process of adjusting to changes in variables that influence human wellbeing & survival • Takes place at different levels, with different actors, different levels of consciousness, purpose and timing • Goes hand-in-hand with development processes, is part of it • Will also need to reflect other changes, not just climatic
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Adaptation (ii)
Emerging concept that has gained much popularity since early 2000s The ‘other’ climate change policy option along with mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation practice still lagging behind theory Adaptation policy and funding recently more secure Strong links with development
Vulnerability “Climate change will lead to changes in geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems. An impact describes a specific change in a system caused by its exposure to climate change. Impacts may be judged to be harmful or beneficial. Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which these systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts . The concept of risk , which combines The magnitude of the impact with the probability of its occurrence, captures uncertainty in the underlying processes of climate change, exposure, impacts and adaptation.”
IPCC Assessment Report 4 [Chapter 19.1.1]
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Climate Change and Its Adverse Impacts
IPCC, 2001
Vulnerability in Marine Affairs and Fisheries Changing in hydrological, biological and ecological functions of marine and coastal ecosystems (coral reefs, mangrove, sea grass) Degradation environmental quality Sea level rise Freshwater scarcity Reduce environmental services Warming and acidification Extreme weather and climate events El Nino, La Nina, Typhoon Potential loss of economic livelihood Food security Subsistence fisheries Potential loss of settlements Potential conflicts of resources access Trans-boundary issues
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Climate Change Impacts on Indonesia SeaEffects Level Rise Disappearing Small Islands Salt Water Intrusion
Ocean Warming Decline in Fisheries Harvest Loss of Biodiversity Increased Temperature Increased Fire Risk Increased Disease Risk Increased Rainfall Floods and Land Slides Changes in Planting Season Increased Evaporation Drought, Food Security
Increased Tropical Transport Vulnerability Storms Food and Water Scarcity
Ocean and Coastal Hazards
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The impacts so far >1400 disaster (2003 – 2005): 53 % hydro- meteorological led by extreme climate event Low-level water on eight reservoirs in Java; low capacity on electrical generator Coral bleaching during El Nino 1997 (90 – 95% bleaching at 25 meter depth) Sea level rise [land subsidence]: small island disappearance Fishing ground; CPUE; migratory species; high cost for production
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Blue Carbon: What is it
Frameworks STILL LACK TECHNOLOGY EXTENSIVE
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Approaches
reduce the adverse negative impacts maximizing opportunities and anticipate to the consequences intervention to human system and natural system
Adaptation Strategies (1)
Protect Hard-structures (d am, embankment, floodwalls, seawall, revetment, groin, detached breakwater, tidal barriers, water intrusion barriers) Soft-structures (periodically beach nourishment, development and enhance sand dunes and wetland) Indigenous (reforestation such as coconuts, mangrove; wood and stone wall breakers)
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Adaptation Strategies (2)
Retreat Set-back (less technology ) Moving the vulnerable buildings/infrasturtures (more technology and costs involved) Moving prediction (less technology) Realignment (required technology on location-based) Upland management (less technology) Reduce water extraction (more technology)
Adaptation Strategies (3)
Accommodative Emergency planning (early warning and evacuation system) Disaster insurance (less technology) Land and coastal use management (required various technology) Enhancing vulnerability areas management (less technology) Drainage system management (flows, pipe diameters, drainage dimension, pump capacity) Desalination (advanced technology involved/desalination unit)
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MMAF Priority on Adaptation Risk-based driven Impacts to 3Ps :Pro-growth, Pro-job dan Pro-poor) Inventory and identification vulnerable coastal and small island Inventory, identification and evaluation of adaptation capacity; Community resilience (socially and economically) Ecosystem resilience Reduce adverse impacts of climate change Protect marine and fisheries infrastructures Integrated coastal and ocean management
WORLD OCEAN CONFERENCE 2009 & CORAL TRIANGLE INITATIVE SUMMIT
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WORLD OCEAN CONFERENCE 2009
Date : 11 – 14 May 2009 at Grand Kawanua Convention Centre, Manado, North Sulawesi • 11-12 May: Senior Official Meeting • 14 May: Ministerial/High Level Meeting
Objectives: Adoption of Manado Ocean Declaration (MOD)
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WORLD OCEAN CONFERENCE 2009 SOM and Ministerial/HLM are participated by delegates from 74 countries and 13 IGOs Side Events: Global Ocean Policy Day (GOPD), attended by 500 local and international participants from 65 countries International Symposium, attended by more than 2000 local and international participants from 37 countries discussing more 400 papers and 69 Posters. International Exhibition, displayed 250 exhibitors from local and international participants.
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SUMMARY OF MOD
Commit to long-term conservation, management, and sustainable use of marine living resources; Establish national strategies to sustainably manage marine and coastal ecosystems and enhance their resilience Reduce land- and sea-based pollution; Increase understanding and information exchange on coasts, oceans and climate change, particularly in developing countries.
UNFCCC PROCESS - 2009
Bonn I Bonn II Bonn III
Kopenhagen Barcelona Bangkok
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UNFCCC (per Bangkok Sept 09)
SBSTA SBI 30 AWG-LCA KP 30 7 AWG-KP9
Overlapping areas
AWG-LCA
Adaptation Mitigation
Shared vision for cooperative action BAP
Finance Technology Transfer
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Flashback on Oceans Dimensions Bonn II (1 – 12 June 2009): Joint submission by 13 countries Bonn III (10 – 14 August 2009): Support maintain the paragraphs in AWG/LCA revised negotiating text Bangkok (28 Sept – 10 Oct 2009): Continue maintaining and improving existing paragraphs
Update Bangkok (1): Status on Consolidated Text ocean-dimension paragraphs in consolidated text (FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/INF.2 Date 15 September 2009) Annex I. Shared vision: 5 paragraphs/sub-paragraphs PP 12 (Page 6), Paragraph 3 (Page 7), Paragraph 5 (Page 7) Paragraph 18 (Page 9 - 10) and Paragraph 25 (Page 13) Annnex II. Adaptation: 15 paragraphs/sub-paragraphs Paragraph 10 (c) (Page 25); Paragraphs 12 (b) (Page 26); Paragraphs 13 (a) (ii) (Page 27); Paragraphs 14 (i) (Page 28); Paragraph 14 k (Page 28); Paragraph 15 (g) (Page 31); Paragraph 23 (Page 34-35); Paragraph 30 (f) (iii) Page (35); Paragraph 35 (Page 40); Paragraph 48 (c) (Page 40); Paragraph 48 (b) (i) (Page 46); Paragraph 53 (Page 47); Paragraph 56 (j) (Page 49); Paragraph 61 (e) (Page 53) and Paragraph 61 (o) (Page 54) Annnex V. Transfer Technology: 1 sub-paragraph Paragraph 31 (c) (Page 157); Annnex VI. Capacity building: 1 sub-paragraph Paragraph 2 (j) (Page 177):
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Update Bangkok (2): Status Joint Submission the joint submission paragraphs in consolidated text (FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/INF.2 Date 15 September 2009)
Annex I. A. Paragraph 3 (page 7) Annex I. A. Paragraph 18 (page 9 -10) Annex I. E. Paragraph 14 (k) (page 28) Annex I. E. Paragraph 56 (i) (page 49) Annex I. E. Paragraph 61 (e) (page 53) Annex V. Paragraph 31 ( c) (page 157) Annex VI.Paragraph 2 (j) (page 177)
Update Bangkok (3): Status on Non Paper
ocean-dimension paragraphs in some of the Non-Papers prepared by the Chairs and the Co-chairs Shared vision (Non-Paper No. 5): para 3 p.1; para 4 p.2 Note from the Chair: Possible merger Adaptation (Non-Paper No. 8): para 4 (c) p.3; para 6 (c) p.4; para 8 (a) (ii) p.4; para 28 (c) 6 p.12; Annex V (e) p.22; and Annex V (o) p.23 Possible inclusion the oceans dimensions : para 4 (d) p.3; para 5 (g) (ii) p.5; para 24 (a) p. 10; para 25 (b) and (e) p. 10; para 26 p.11; para 28 (b) (i) p.11; and Annex II (b) p. 16. Transfer Technology (Non-Paper No. 4): Annex 1 ( c) p.11 Possible integrated to Paragraph 12 or 16 as new sub-para. Capacity building (Non-Paper No. 6): para 3(j) p.6 Note from the Chair: No change
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What next? need to ensure the inclusion of ocean considerations into the final texts for the UNFCCC meeting in Copenhagen. Barcelona (2 – 6 Nov): Keep maintaining paragraphs on ocean dimension. Copenhagen (7 – 18 Dec): Inclusion of oceans dimensions to COP-15 UNFCCC final decision.
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Thank you
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