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Hyundai Glovis Buy (086280 KS ) (Maintain)

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Hyundai Glovis Buy (086280 KS ) (Maintain) [Korea] Logistics October 16, 2020 Hyundai Glovis Buy (086280 KS ) (Maintain) Poised for a re -rating TP: W215,000 ▲ Upside: 19.8% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jay JH Ryu [email protected] Raise TP Raise TP to W215,000 and maintain Buy We raise our target price on Hyundai Glovis to W215,000. We revised up our 2020 and 2021 operating profit estimates by 0.6% and 8.7%, respectively. Hyundai Motor Group’s (HMG) market share is rebounding, and uncerta inties regarding the company’s ownership structure are likely to dissipate. Re -rating catalyst 1 Focus on fundamentals : HMG ’s resurgence Historically, Hyundai Glovis’s value has moved in tandem with HMG’s market status. HMG looks well-positioned to expand its presence in the global auto market on the back of electric vehicles (EVs). Given HMG’s new release cycle, we believe Hyundai Glovis’s volume is highly likely to recover. Re -rating catalyst 2 Both affiliate and non -affiliate volume to improve, supporting margin recovery The recovery in affiliate volume should lead to fleet expansion, which should , in turn, enhance the company’s ability to win over non-affiliate volume. Falling pure car carrier (PCC) charter rates and the current weakness of competitors also provide a good opportunity for the company to expand its fleet. The company should see new business opportunities through its affiliates (e.g., hydrogen distribution/transportation). Re -rating catalyst 3 Expectations on ownership structure overhaul There are growing expectations on HMG’s ownership structure overhaul (to unwind circular shareholdings). We expect Hyundai Glovis’s value to rise in the process, as it did during the company’s previous attempt to merge with Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS/Buy/TP: W250,000W/CP: W234,500). Regardless of the approach taken, we believe the overhaul will benefit Hyundai Glovis by accelerating its business revamp. Key data Current price (10/15/20, W) 179,500 Market cap (Wbn) 6,731 140 Hyundai Glovis KOSPI OP (20F, Wbn) 706 Shares outstanding (mn) 38 120 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 687 Free float (%) 48.6 100 EPS growth (20F, %) 18.3 Foreign ownership (%) 35.2 80 P/E (20F, x) 11.3 Beta (12M) 1.38 60 40 Market P/E (20F, x) 16.2 52-week low (W) 73,300 10.19 2.20 6.20 10.20 KOSPI 2,361.21 52-week high (W) 179,500 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Absolute 23.8 75.1 19.7 Revenue (Wbn) 16,358 16,866 18,270 16,703 19,093 19,543 Relative 28.1 37.7 4.8 OP (Wbn) 727 710 877 706 928 937 OP margin (%) 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.2 4.9 4.8 NP (Wbn) 680 437 502 594 612 674 EPS (W) 18,147 11,663 13,395 15,851 16,307 17,968 ROE (%) 18.2 10.6 11.2 12.1 11.4 11.5 P/E (x) 7.5 11.1 10.7 11.3 11.0 10.0 P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. October 16, 2020 Hyundai Glovis Raise TP to W215,000 and maintain Buy We revise up our 2020 and 2021 net profit estimates for Hyundai Glovis and raise our target price to W215,000 (from W140,000). We maintain our Buy rating. We derived our target price using a residual income model (RIM) and reduced the risk-free rate to 1.6% (vs. 2.0% previously), considering the recent low interest rate trend. We also revised up our long-term net margin (3.4%) and growth estimates. Although a near-term correction is possible following the stock’s strong rally (fueled by expectations on HMG’s likely ownership structure overhaul), we believe there is still ample room for further gains, given: 1) HMG’s recovering market share; and 2) the potential for a post-pandemic earnings rebound. Furthermore, expectations regarding the removal of ownership structure uncertainties should continue to serve as a catalyst for share prices. Table 1. Hyundai Glovis: RIM valuation (Wbn) 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F Revenue 18,270 16,703 19,093 19,543 20,004 20,475 20,885 (Growth) 8.3% -8.6% 14.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0% NP (ex-minority interests) 502 594 612 674 692 717 710 (% of revenue) 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% Equity (ex-minority interests) 4,670 5,119 5,599 6,142 6,703 7,289 7,925 (Growth) 9.6% 9.6% 9.4% 9.7% 9.1% 8.7% 8.7% Forecast ROE 11.2% 12.1% 11.4% 11.5% 10.8% 10.2% 9.3% COE 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% Spread 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 3.8% Residual income 266 337 328 363 349 342 299 Terminal value 1,574 NPV of FCFF 2,128 Beta 0.7 PV of terminal value 916 Risk premium 6.0% Current book value 4,670 Risk-free rate 1.6% Equity value 8,054 COE 5.6% Shares outstanding (‘000) 37,500 Target P/B (12-month forward) 1.4x Target price (W) 215,000 Target P/E (12-month forward) 13.2x Current price (W) 179,500 Target PEG (12-month forward) 2.5x Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 October 16, 2020 Hyundai Glovis Figure 1. Hyundai Glovis: P/E band chart Figure 2. Hyundai Glovis: P/B band chart (W) (W) 400,000 500,000 450,000 350,000 3.3x 400,000 300,000 350,000 2.6x 20.2x 250,000 300,000 16.8x 2.0x 200,000 250,000 13.5x 200,000 150,000 1.4x 10.1x 150,000 100,000 6.8x 100,000 0.7x 50,000 50,000 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Peer valuation table: Global logistics players (Wbn, %, x) Revenue OP NP ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Company Market cap 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F Korea CJ Logistics 4,197 10,952 11,734 346 404 110 142 3.5 4.4 37.5 29.2 1.2 1.2 11.8 10.1 Hyundai Glovis 6,394 16,513 18,496 679 863 502 617 10.3 11.1 12.7 10.3 1.3 1.3 6.7 5.8 Hanjin Transportation 564 2,146 2,246 111 128 14 192 1.5 16.6 44.1 3.5 0.6 0.5 10.7 10.2 Japan Yamato Holdings 11,915 18,029 18,464 738 844 394 456 6.8 8.0 29.1 24.9 1.9 1.8 7.8 7.0 Nippon Express 6,209 21,605 22,641 520 664 371 443 6.4 7.3 15.9 13.1 1.0 0.9 7.8 6.8 Mitsubishi Logistics 2,830 2,379 2,510 113 131 399 137 9.5 4.1 8.3 20.4 0.8 0.8 13.6 12.5 Kintetsu World Express 1,811 6,031 6,140 240 239 129 130 9.0 9.8 14.3 14.1 1.3 1.2 6.0 5.9 Sankyu 2,915 6,136 6,281 412 419 266 279 11.1 10.5 10.2 9.6 1.1 1.0 5.4 5.3 Kamigumi 2,757 3,003 3,145 264 274 196 205 5.2 5.3 13.0 12.3 0.7 0.6 5.9 5.7 Seino Holdings 3,157 6,419 6,812 188 277 124 189 2.7 4.1 23.8 15.2 0.6 0.6 5.5 4.4 Hitachi Transport System 4,096 7,124 7,429 355 387 249 245 8.6 9.2 15.7 16.0 1.5 1.4 8.2 8.0 Fukuyama Transporting 2,803 3,155 3,286 191 223 126 153 4.7 5.2 18.7 16.1 0.9 0.8 9.4 8.5 China Xiamen Xiangyu 2,329 56,284 63,131 371 420 221 253 9.5 10.2 11.0 9.6 1.1 1.1 11.3 9.9 Hong Kong Sinotrans 4,344 13,449 13,940 376 435 347 391 7.2 7.9 6.6 5.9 0.5 0.4 10.7 10.0 Kerry Logistics 4,255 6,696 7,203 428 428 240 255 7.0 6.4 18.4 15.6 1.1 1.1 8.5 8.2 Singapore Singapore Post 1,300 1,129 1,172 101 114 74 85 6.1 6.8 18.5 16.3 1.0 1.0 10.2 9.4 Vietnam Gemadept 349 127 143 27 31 22 25 6.8 7.5 17.9 15.6 1.2 1.2 9.8 9.2 Malaysia Pos Malaysia 168 623 721 (12) 37 (18) 20 (4.4) 5.0 - 8.6 0.4 0.4 5.3 2.9 Tasco 101 219 226 17 17 8 9 5.2 5.7 23.3 19.8 6.1 6.1 8.4 8.2 India Container Corp.
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  • Issues and Decision Memorandum
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