Spotlight on Uzbekistan Executive Summary Spotlight on Uzbekistan finds that the much talked about reform process in Uzbekistan is real, but that so are the significant holes in it, with a lot of work still needing to be done to create an open economy, pluralist politics and free society. It remains unclear if President Mirziyoyev’s plans are simply for the authoritarian modernisation seen so far or whether something more ambitious is planned. Since 2016, there has been appreciable economic progress, a reduction in state interference in everyday life, and notable increase in some freedoms, particularly for activists and experts who choose in some way to engage with the Government’s reform project. This genuine progress has garnered Uzbekistan much international good will as it has returned to the world stage. However, Mirziyoyev’s pro-business approach and connections to leading business people have created new concerns about cronyism, corruption and citizens forced out of their homes with inadequate compensation as part of building the new Uzbekistan. So far the reforms have created a type of ‘managed freedom’, where there is space for ‘constructive criticism’ but some sensitive topics remain off limits. The response to recent crises have highlighted the successes and failings of the new system: showing swift action to get on top of the initial challenges; rapid, numerous but not wholly joined up initiatives to tackle the economic and social impact; a reticence to address historic and structural problems; and new opportunities for local abuses of power. As Uzbekistan becomes more self-confident about the progress of the reforms and its place in the world, it needs to show a more self-confident approach towards its own past, convening a national conversation involving those who suffered under Karimov, the Government and with local and international experts. The publication makes key recommendations for the Government of Uzbekistan. It should: Continue reforming the civil service to improve structures and capacity while being more measured and consultative when creating new legislation and decrees. Develop a more competitive political environment in Uzbekistan by removing restrictions on registering new parties and allowing independent candidates to stand for election. Reform local government by requiring the direct elections of Governors and Mayors, with greater public consultation on planning decisions, action on forced evictions, lack of compensation, the provision of social infrastructure and protecting historic buildings. Require transparency for all holders of public office including politicians and judges with declarations of external sources of income and assets, while making public the ownership details of firms involved in the new cotton ‘clusters’. Move beyond ‘constructive criticism’ to true freedom of expression and association including by delivering new anti-defamation laws without the threat of prison or massive fine and allowing independent NGOs to register, while helping them do so. Help facilitate the end of the boycott of Uzbek cotton by urgently registering the cotton monitoring NGOs and independent trade unions, working with them to end forced labour. Continue the reform of the Prosecutor General’s Office, security services and judiciary to prevent the harassment of activists and political opponents. Deliver transitional justice and greater openness about the Karimov legacy that includes helping the rehabilitation of victims of past abuse and an open public dialogue. Continue to expand both religious and social freedoms that prioritise individual choice over community pressure, with more women in senior government positions, action on domestic violence, freedoms for religious groups and ending laws against the LGBTQ community. International institutions and governments should: Critically but actively, engage with Uzbekistan to further the reforms and insist on an international human rights health check ahead of decisions whether to elect Uzbekistan to the UN Human Rights Council or be chosen to host the 2027 Asian Games. 2 Spotlight on Uzbekistan Contents …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………... 1. Introducing Mirziyoyev’s Uzbekistan 4 By Adam Hug 2. Economic reforms in Uzbekistan: Achievements, problems, perspectives 52 By Yuliy Yusupov 3. The investment climate in Uzbekistan 61 By Kate Mallinson 4. Corruption and reform in Uzbekistan: The elephant is still in the room 66 By Professor Kristian Lasslett 5. Reversing brain drain is the key to Uzbekistan’s future 77 By Navbahor Imamova 6. The perils of rebuilding Uzbekistan: The rise of glass and glitter 84 By Dilmira Matyakubova 7. Media landscape in Uzbekistan 93 By Nikita Makarenko 8. Challenges NGOs in Uzbekistan are still facing 99 By Dilmurad Yusupov 9. Rebranding Uzbek Cotton: An Opportunity for Lasting Reform 109 By Lynn Schweisfurth 10. Rehabilitation here and now: Pursuing transitional justice in Uzbekistan 115 By Steve Swerdlow 11. Is President Shavkat Mirziyoyev a reformer or a follower of the Karimov dictatorship? 127 By Nadejda Atayeva 12. Uzbekistan: on the brink of social explosion 133 By a Uzbekistan based human rights group 13. COVID-19: Actions taken in Uzbekistan 136 By Eldor Tulyakov 14. The pursuit of an uneasy balance: post-Karimov Uzbekistan and the Great Powers 146 By Dr Luca Anceschi and Dr Vladimir Paramonov 15. Conclusion and recommendations: A road map for future reforms in Uzbekistan 152 By Adam Hug . Acknowledgements 161 Disclaimer: The views expressed in each essay in this publication are those of the individual authors alone and do not represent the views of The Foreign Policy Centre. The views expressed by each author do not represent agreement with the views expressed by other essay contributors or necessarily with the publication’s conclusions and recommendations drafted by the editor. 3 Spotlight on Uzbekistan 1. Introducing Mirziyoyev’s Uzbekistan …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………... By Adam Hug1 Spotlight on Uzbekistan In September 2016, longstanding Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev assumed the Presidency of Uzbekistan following the death of President Islam Karimov, the despotic ruler who had dominated the country since independence. After decades of heavy repression and isolation by a regime Mirziyoyev was intimately involved with, many international and local observers have been surprised and cautiously heartened by Uzbekistan’s efforts to open up to the outside world and address some of the regime’s more egregious abuses, but questions have remained over the long-term intentions of the new leadership. The recent coronavirus crisis has provided an acid test for assessing the government’s progress, and its response - effective in suppressing the virus - has highlighted progress made in many areas while further illuminating some continuing areas of concern. This introductory essay, and the Spotlight on Uzbekistan essay collection as a whole, seeks to assess the progress Uzbekistan has made since 2016, identify the challenges that remain and develop ideas for further action. A brief history of modern Uzbekistan Uzbekistan can trace its roots back to the first settlements of the Scythian people before their absorption into the Persian Empire and its successor states until the Arab conquest in the 7th century. The Mongol conquests in the 13th century consolidated the migration of Turkic peoples to the region that had been gradually taking place in previous centuries. Timur (known in the West as Tamerlane) founded his empire in Samarkand, and later rulers (notably Islam Karimov) have sought to frame him 1 Adam Hug became the Director of the Foreign Policy Centre in November 2017, overseeing the FPC's operations and strategic direction. He had previously been the Policy Director at the Foreign Policy Centre from 2008-2017. His research focuses on human rights and governance issues particularly in the former Soviet Union. He also writes on UK foreign policy and EU issues. 4 Spotlight on Uzbekistan as a founder of Uzbekistan.2 The remnants of the Timurid Empire were conquered in turn by the Shaybanids, who also took the name Ozbeg (Uzbek) in honour of a senior leader of the Mongol Golden Horde from which they descended, establishing smaller kingdoms in the region. Russia attempted to push south into the region as part of its imperial expansion with the failed Khivan expedition in 1717 under the rule of Peter the Great. This was followed a century and a half later by the Russian capture of Tashkent in 1865, the annexation of Samarkand from the Emirate of Bukhara in 1868, and the annexation of the Khanate of Kokand in 1876, with the full and final absorption of the remnants of the Emirate of Bukhara and Khanate of Khiva in 1920. Until 1924 the Soviet regions somewhat mirrored their predecessor states with the Khorezm People's Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) replacing the Khanate of Khiva, the Bukharan People's SSR covering the former Emirate of Bukhara, and the Turkestan Autonomous SSR (ASSR) covering everything else. This was dissolved in 1924 with the creation of the Uzbek SSR, which, after the departure of the Tajik ASSR to form its own republic in 1929, comprises the territory that makes up Uzbekistan today, with Tashkent replacing Samarkand as its capital in 1930. Islam Karimov ascended to the position of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan in 1989, becoming the first and only President of the Uzbek SSR a year later and at its independence in