- UnlteCI States DepanmennJ Slate 1J BufHu or tntelligQne4} and Aes93rcll J tnte aigence Rese•rch Report e'

China: Aftermath of the Crisis IRR No. 210 • July 27, 1989 ;

.. ·: ·.. \, . '·. . . " . . " ·...... ; . •'

' •

: .. ··.. SECAEl

United Stat9ll Department of State Bureau or lntelligen~ and Research

(U) China: Aftetntath 'Of the Crisis

lme1Ugenee Reseatch f'lepolt No. 21 a July 27, 1989

Ill ... Uol:t''d'Sta!~~~.-...:<11'_., .... ,.l'iW ___ t --~~· .. -I!O!i4114------·------··1~----iji'·ii ..• ·.•.... . ~f·

Key .M~gniMltl

{lOU) 111e siUIIIDn tn Clllna wtl rema1t1 unllllllled 111111a1 tdl 1111ng Xlaaplng 11110 Olherpartyeidllrs die. ·... ,. . ":'.. .l •..

•

SECIIET Dedasslfy: OADR (Fingor, T.) SECRET 2· .. . ------.. __

• easrc economic problema are bouncllll get wotta belon!Uiey get bet· lei. Ditforencas &xlst v.1lhln the leaclarahlp over 1M dln!dlon and ICOp8 ol needed ecotiOiric reform. II haldln,u'D succeed In &Nftlng China • towarcl self-felance, lhe resulting de<:_ In foreign trac1e ancllflllftl· ment -MI exacerbate unclilrlylng probl&ms.

• Contention may al&o """'"'o-llie •cope and aevarlty of lhe ln'­ nal craeltdoWII. •

••. . ... r;;. • . ., .•.. .. :·· .•. hawexpreased~~ dflouOh a l$w&xcepdona ...... •rppMed Cl*la'a 1811!:8t'om piii«MM--111~ . . =Qtlsm In the East • • l~lllmat!Ona!Ortanlzdona: Allhougblhlt UN !iii.~~~~ 1111!1: dale not 1o lllllrlfet'eln lnlemal aflalnr,lhe WCHid ~-~!:. . w!DP.fi)Qnt Balik (AOB} !lave IJOOCPOned coiiGfdlndiOrlafpijnclng IDins. seCRn . 3 .

-- •

. .

'

CCPOI-·-•Iott ..... , •

• Ww....,l!urope: Ra•clb--. generdy __.,. ...., .,.,. US ._,_, I.e, on.llon oftjgh.-..t...... "'" ••IV ... ._.aiothNinocoi-..onof.- lnll.....,...,,...... ,. -... and pubic Cltldlmol hMnallllgiD ......

• C.n-.,Aullnlll,,...z 'mel: AI-'--" 1 :tNgll...,. -"'... PAC. c..-and"*' ., - -ICIIcltnr ...... - ·_c.n.la,_ '* a :t ..AIM I' to far_...... ,

• ,,.,...,..... ~AI...,,.IIIIiatal~_...... ttlaUgh .llf:*lllu lflllld 1NI•""'Itnllan "'.. lllll"*'tlllllllilc:e . could OOI ..._Iftlt'l .... II, IIIII I._ . ::.. •. . •'""""• . • .....liz?!, , Wl*olllclei...... ,..._.....WV .,,,,ltd ·--Jt;aied ••forma-. and-- ...pdwlill&o"'-C . . -- ~• . .,.'*!f.. . . . : ...... -... .,.. • IIUBIIJI J,ll'll?ll.. TIIIIJUisM,811c1 ..-• ap•ll-*1 ...,..., ...... "111azF111 ...... • ...... -Oimllnr.aa..l22clleorlll-.: ,,•• N'I,__.,.,

SECRET SF.-:...PIET"

~ .

• The""""' Wortcl' ()!klal """"',.. h .. - _..., by .,...,.,. O

•

~-- 1

...... • ' ...... ·-1' ...,.;,, . -.~· .. ..,-: .....~1. ·,·~...JH .... ~ ...... ,:; ·· ~ . .. . ·J1.•.·:) ...... t•.! • ~~· : e.q SECAET

. ~ . ---· .

ond 1he "'ll"'" nHd to ,_._In aomo rnlb11c: (C) How Did Cfllna Qfl to This Point? lashlDeng. S..•ll _,.._1*11' -..- .. o.no belong 11111'10 ,aonlnG ""' __...... l'nllrill ~haW bMR •••*'V rcr ...... ~·--,..... •zro.once.- ..... - o.v'l *'**h6, ..:I ...pact o.nv"' d\ICIWI ~ ---_ _, paiiiQ6e.

Slgo-pole¥ cii().IIOO - - at loiUO, ....,Oorlg'a ~ ·~ ~ 1ho party, gov-11.-...IIIIIY---''11...,...... ,...,..-~. Hlt-·-:a-~ --.-...... ,.,.. Npoltall/1..., tD _...... ,,., ...... fllftiWeocflllarta IIIII '"'••ciCAi bJ .. • •• Cl1 ..torm. T1w Olfter ...,_ ~..-•ap TaMI1tat .. s gn••liP"saa, .,...,., kwu';g t6aW..., lfteft tiWJ&It ._...... _...... • -- ~ ~al....,...... '*...... _ .. ··- , ..... ~···--~-._...... ell . ln.' __...... poiJ. .. p.,_. t'l .. •:~ ,..mtiJ!I(y dOIItr e~~•-"'.,...." a •••.,.. • •••0"1 ••Rill.. tG....,.,...... a.. ... ac. .. nma•••~g~r~ar...-: ert11 tD NfDml a ,...... Iiila,. ...,.....-lnpa•• ...... "'""' ... " ...... ----tli•D... _.., • ._.. .. p.nWgn ... uU1.- ~ •ll ~· *' tnd n.•afM•w...... ---..: lte- In.,. IIIP loaMI..._, MCM••• _.. 10 ...,_...... IIU?J I~~~ .. ---...... iiiid tiiCio>.-.f ... .,...... ,..,...... ' ' , .. .. •.

SECAET - moot O

111• lmp•c:t of the Fourth Plenum

. •

• .n..g . .., econordatelormar end PoiDro ~ 11«. wal'llmldco.n..tSw.-y....S,...­ IOIN Slooolng Conoo-.

• u •••• ,.,.,_,, ~ ...,. of tta. pc•tt• fWOifvlrd .,...... \. . • ...... -y ., .. ., - ...... , ,...... ,._ o.ng...,...... , •-ocr•-..,.. ...,.._.., Ml*"" al Ill& ---"" projji .... but ... c.n Ccaotn 'too """""'"*'-•.._.-..,..,. -.we I& nat,.-· . ,...... (CJ ...... ZIIH.. OUL.. ,. Ceo*~~~. C::1...... 111•11 . a-...... -....- 010111...... 6&10...... ~ .... •*' I , ...... ,, ... .. lftDI"~...... 1111 ....I, ...,Wid ...... ,""'-oocr ...... -.,.(q -- ...... ··"'··- .,..Sl·-· Ill& -...... ColltW wt.. .-. ... po~~•P..,cHif._._... ..,s•-.-•• ~-...,,,- o.-.~~~~ec~... ..,.cwn~c::aw••-tar ..... --... ··-""" ..,._,..... ~--...,. ologHIJ­ ._ .._..oil HI ...... to .m..tt• .. "n'Js~ • • ' .

SECRET SEC$U:T • 7 ..

() I, ""'-...ndlnQ . u-.c...... ~... ~- . . ·< ...... ~ d ...... ~ .c..u.· IGM:dlll {C) AI.- al ol - .....,

-...~- ...... --.--"' Rope. Ooo ...... lll*oood e_ ,.. - 01> lloe ...W ob(....., Storodlng CuntMs wil c:cnt~nu& to dtovel~. 1he - ..o Woco-nl· Boll> ot lheoo -ortlllllw •t-IS.-point leaning achloved, how- to 8<1 10

tomDeniland-~- 10r ~ emojor pwgo--·- ot ..tuuua.cy ... (CI The Lo1111, Hot s.. n w....- In 1bo ~ ...... C8f11)lligo eQOitlll bcu the leld.,.Np oroll

Dooplle eflorllto ""-"'- ... ..,.,....,. """'~-·-·-,_...,~~~~.,....vo 11101101.., •eiii*I'UP -.glng ... - VIIOUgl'alt ...... ,...... ,., ...... "',..,..~ ...... pl...... thO10~-- - trnpaftn ...... _..., Dong'~ •• ~ • .,•• ! ltJ8W COII'1IeNnCit" .... tift. ... ·--· "' eon-. p:ogrwn ---~ ond ...... lei Obi - .... """"" and_.,. ....- ...... , ...... ,. ... ,...... and • ~ - (I ...... , ...... palty and ...... •t.,..,..,...... ,.flfa.auGiiftDifl'dcu••' .... ol...... o~~ .,_....B ·~_pd--"'-poll-.. h'OUglilio...,._. - al g' """ !J!h .. II' tt.. _.,

Donlllltl' PekySig.-...UIY'St'. Tbe ~ al ct··-"'-- plordWI-'lW ~· .._ ~ 1'Wo 1...... ~ Cit- ...... ~'"" ...... "' 1\jd-May ....,_,.., n..ooftrt b and ...... ,..,..... tlle-t ...... ,_.. -'<. )"11--- ... plenol:t nfll!l ... --- · ~of .. ..- ll>e ...... of ... --...... c..... 9liii&;IMh ...... tlllllOalil .._...,. .,.. ~ CooiUI..... , ·~ '* .....,.._...... note .... ~..... eddtw'dOtar ...... ~ ...... - diaiM!d f1ir ...., MM*'nG till£-'* ...... ,. .I!UI.....-.. -- ..,....,- ·-·-·.. ..,. Oeng, foe,. od-&ill... ldl Jbglcoil••••· tDp ...... pllr:Wift ~ .rid l'8rtoua ~ · t wno.le~~ uraoo_.,.. --~~~~...... -.oun-c- - ... --••M-"'1-•:n•c't w al ~ dun: sale p(ailw .nd aw"*'U anMI. ~.... -"'..._ .. _..... __ ... c:aau. ~ ...... OBnnl .... 2 ~ ~ ...... """" phM. ... •• ... 9 , ,.. oi1141P01111:r plelun ...... "' """" 2-1... - ~ diNgc_,...._ ...lor_ JIIIcdl'ando,,... -• r ..,_,..,..,.. --tn Iii' ...££1"""- ...... -.~-and.,....q-- ~.u. • .,. .... - ...- .... ·-m:.ll>e~ ...... -., ... perly ... "'""""'""" ... -··• :I'!IOd .... qlng "' ~ ~ ~ ~ ... kl...... Oll"raa"'J ....,..,..,._ • ______'rr'wa- _...._ • =*'-~ pa ..on _ lnd zn-111d 1111 "'4'J1C1'1n and ,. • 1onlng lifting par1y _....,.. and ~ ...... 1l>e """" IIW'ODRwtMIII-h114U::&'MIM...... p.un v:uiocl •IOf-ofl', - · ,_ d£5t..- """""""---- : ...ytng ...... ,.

SECRET SECRET . g .

....,oct 1118 lund- COIIII'IIdieli011S iMorenl In r-- ---,------·, •Otl>g '• ellon to p-hit progrott>--end ~~ own poo~i.,_,.OI diiCM'C) the bold retom> wWig ol the pe~~y.

Gtu1e r Cons istency on Fo rett..n P-oftey. s--on rli-1'106- ln...:M and ...... lmpol'llnc8 Gillie cpen f>CIGY. Tho.,..._.""'"""""" quo -lhe Contnd Colmlllln'• ~ lltld f~ondly ~es wH/1 all oourtltleo ....Ud contlooo 1o ciO.. Iop and a- Olllf.W.SI8nt ...._ and alict.sl n of LM US I'Mit perslrls ., ~

- The JUM 25-W3S -(Win~­ lng 11>e oontdly to Chlna'11 fUII.n ol opening up llo ooun11y and leam!ng eIng uoelul from all ...... -. Thtcons11181>cy ntont ci-on -an poky...., l'lllled-Deng't -~~·­ to Pf Ill M l1i1t lilped. ol f* PlC9&11 « ...... ,... -~~~ .... ~ '**"'- to - .... .,,_, ""'--"'"'-"'Chlna'll~ pooifon.

(C)

. A p-tJ' contr•• or .,.._,.. , ...... ~ ...... - •• lonitt-ln111S•--... ~ ... ~,..rfed ...... ,."'"" ...... poWOIII!f..Wa!ftlto""'-·-· -· lrolholel; ..-cfbliiniw...... ~ ..lniiiiNI· N'*'-,.,__ ...... ,.,,UI

'"'CAET • Tho oca1e ol on..::.. lr>qt.lslll. ~ sold into<"'"*' syotom (willie, -....,, !>",... lo have1olcle toralgn vl$it0t1hlll SCM"M o. .000 1"9 ooon"""c 11eo will\ d .....tries) n1 ..a-tng WOe ta~ wall aa 1ne nat1n ol ch~~~g•• ciOS.IJOI!Ical 0< mliHIIY ""w.glomento wit> lhe grNI lev- and IN puOishmentl ....,....., wt• become -r$. ~IUoally d>argod .. hardliners tly to gin vp ., 11111i· relonn ~gn. "conllmod ~. lncMirog M_y,...... _f'OIIImolnCNna-no1 morw e x.8CVUOnl, wllllbo QCIII'npllcaM Chln1'1 efforts ....ceosarty potlend • tiRieglc ohlflln --witt 10 golknl~n rolallonl back on ., ewn - · lltoUI'ilodS-OIIdftoSoYiotlJnlofl. So•nOit>t olden - -1'NIIon .-regal~ pollllcollr> IUoncoha.. -.- ..~ont~Denglo­ (C) LD,ger Term Progi'MI41• ,gtaclo.,_"'llfbl_leoo....,.,_IOSo.ltc_-. lito tnll '""" f>o - Union. lnciii!O new Sacloty. ThO -""' ,.. _._ tor .....,. hlrfteOO!Iofort "'~..__...... ,.. tie """'*"""" lrr4>oet on Ch!N'W - n Deng'o relon'n program ol ll1e .-ogle rMltS c4 -'1 ~ MQOI' \0 C8jlltlllze "" "'* ,_ J ...... n.. pt<>blllllty Is t'jgh torcmlir1ued ~ ~ ..... by~.,.. miiWy lluiiQ04 ... bo lr$1robQy, j!UI)CWated by-· ol.-o...... 10 unclooa.t- ~by~- "'" Soviot-. IAoroovo<, .... who,_ loci .... n ... .,,... """""'~' n ~ wll­ ,_...," _., _ .... People'tl,jb.a. no~-...,·-- Ina.­ mlliiWy Ilea"' ... ~ \ · .,..lngly - ~--latally--- n ~ 11n11 - d11lcloll1 --~_...,... ..a.IIY· ~ ll probably - ....-- ...... __ _ pec8d loloo ___ N -lna*-;M teglrne_,..,.,...... ,_,.,_,_...... ,.. - Ill COI.W'IIod an lo """" """"d on do­ __ ...., .. .,...... , .. -._- .,._...., ...... 'lpec:W-­ ..... - ----.-cia\sNp .... ~ CDIM'D.l cdillal •. .... The D*wM . 1n _.. ~ ...... - '"" In ... l'i"' al ..,.,....-..,., precluding,_ - _.... poiOoo mw- lo .dclreeo-e"""' ... ~---p--... p_,.i& Dtng' aPNg~anls ~...,..nML butt\ ...... ,._... ___ !Mcer- ~ --IOioeopHoldl..,_ ~ IIIII llmldlly arral8 --...... ll1d - - ..... Forlholrpoll. .,..._ IIIII- IIIIOIOV lJI'OICy. O...'o ro-• .... IN West <~$\ ...... -~~~o. .-n ...... - -...y w~~~~e-oer~~~y ...... uno•--·"'""_,. -.,..s. n...... -*lcq ...... bnrbol st.fi>"lllllan ot .....~""''*'..,.and ... -IIG--~~~ tnm polltc.l ...... ~lllng ---~. Cl*>ooo cont.,_ """'*liliUlll ...... - ""8ollhgl0 begin - lond 10 faYOr "'*tlrtllzlng .,.._ on fto "" ..- ..,_ ...... Marly- .... SECRET - · - :1 - Clldf"''O meal o1 Chloe.'s ITejot tr- potU\oiO, ha"" s-..-. Plll>lei"O,...filarodanlmpcotopped short ot lrado sanc(lons. Mlnlltor Anoloeo\U hoollrguopi~1da ~bow I'1Bt bullnell 1'"M UN -lnlerndonol QrganlliiUone. UN Is INolnt ...... , • - t.- t ""'"o.-..1 ,_ ~Pam de c.o.w,- -.g""' ,_...., ... PAC In.._ UN ,__ no! ltl l" --e.n..h,--.--.. oc·•·d~ ...... - .I'AC. ~tor Securtt)' Colrd _ _._Tho WEOG ~ .. --·1,.,...... , . ~ twt••'1 EYq:~•.n n Olhefl Gnql) ~ tlltl ~" lndlvlckJ.., - lot otrong..- ~.,. '"'"' ... ---"'..,"""q....:on'lll~tor- ...... S.O-rQona!al 1111C1 des~ Ulf lutwl ..... ~ ... oar-... - "*""I o1 ••dll ~··· . ---torCI!Neo·---.-...... ,_...... ,.,. ,._... dlofo ... .._ ...... __ ... _.._.,.._., .... _..,.ICJ..,...._•.-os£1,_ ~..S · w__ ..,.,.Nltl.'""""~ .. ~­ C8AI:lll . * ...... us. ~ ltlrlgdoon. - ln tw 01*1:111 ecCJIIIOmf, ....,. ~- oxliililkhi a. J.p..- ..~ ...... al pondlng-...... l'fte, ...... _... , ...... O'itlll--1 t -···--~h ecaiOMic ~ ..._ CDdiiQ lit PRC . . ·: -"-~IIi 1... "'­ Wtool;:"' ~ ~ 'ltl ODJide• ..a..... Japan • ~ · . Wai!M ..- ....-. w• ~ .., uu.- tc:.,.._ n ~ Sew;cot&EUq~s.,_~~~Gam...,, llf -...,..nudth*ccw,.,...,.. I noUt.p•n• lWy, Bs'pm. a.,,.., ·.pd:'"'~~ ...,.sdt --h~g«>oo..,'IZ ..... -ol t •..,.ndecf dlti'Qtf- FE Ph~ tf aftto ,..... ""' us ...... ~ El#tflilr> Oolmuoll¥­ -bl..... lft ....ftlb~ I I,.._. ~ -~-· , ~ ~-.-...... -~,_ hdl culiiJUu.. on-~~_- ac;a4.,...... ·~ • ua.a piqlc&' · ... .. -0*-- ... ~-. tlt'lt---· Tho EC ....-mt an .r.-·2&-27 -lftiiUally .....-. o:olllnifw....-olml ...... _.. .-.... -cf -• • -..--.-~ ...... ~ Weet "'-...., ... _ . and..... tiCMologlcal p!Ofe(U; -·-"'-· _,.,.aon. .Tho EC -delbit«c:f, ...... _.... ~ "'-- - . Japan on4 Bovill Kor.. . Oflldllroodlon 101M relorm ,_..,,. - ba 'llnlnenooly ham'lll' Ill evontt In Chtr>a by bCtll Japan end Saufl 1"" !lull by w...... c:ounttteo. 111'4'118<1 lll8t 1M - were 1101 1n raot -. Japan llos oscal81ed 1U ro•po""" from '-""" .,.,...... -....y. OGf1\ • \o desalbing 1M us+ of fohas--'gnovo...... ,. -ln'!bllll ' but .... 1101 ...... any ,...... ""*'-"""'" M!- Uno .., Oomoaal!cJuol!ca P*'f en...... , Pol< Cllun-Kyu orqrMorA Chlna'o ..... Ioiii - 'IIJn - .... 088ft - ft ~~~- ~ ~- ..no~to~hDN - ..... !'ftC.-· __ .. -.-,..,., -•...... An- 1ft ... Socloll.. 1I\'GIIII. A P~· ....s..- ~,...... B.IJICWI o.lf....,lal on c.ng'll Jllw t II'a•"' .,..;rq IN "" ...... if ...... ut .....IQIIIfrio ...... 10 "' ...... of the ·~~-y ...... lwr· w-. w 111 11 ...., .lo _,..lhiiStMoe ,_ _,....._ .. ~. ., ...... __ ~~>a- cnrna .. ,...,.., • ...,..,. -.,.. optnet1of.. ~-~,.., ....,._. h prh:lpiL ' ' .....,.., .,. _.,_~-.. ~ 1n an • ,,,, ·rc co , ...,... .. ef Chi!•. ~. ~ f1le ..,_ ar····d II,.... If IW""' Wad ~ pM<:8 ...... ---~ QIN'o ,.., "'-"'*rAil. and ,_ - E»ocfu •.,.,.. ~. &proaillii'L• Md 1 I n11cJn.. munlol J*lto IIWo ,. _, -tAr - of llo miHiry .....,~ ~ B f rg. "'"'P•• a...ol ...... -~- P'elppet~ Soo_, - -.1 '* ,_ a.'" Gowotn­ .....-: ~ cftk:IIICOIIIIIM.. M ieps....-dby -rr.woc'J:ftiFTL• ·-· ' -- ' ,.. fi0"*'8 ... tlo - IN ec.•••• 01 ~ -lii>en<~>~*-'loovoiY .. ~. lo _. ....- ""'~~ina "" - - PolvlloM ...,..,. .~ -.m Ewrrpe """ .,..,.,_ -· OUI!agtw ,.., 111-··-.. · Bo'nv. Goir-... -lor a Jl"op wflh 1lie- ...... _ ...... c...... CII>POI_ ... - A morch Iaior In Boowt. Gotbac:llow .... i•od ~ CNno - fii.Cicil .of ...... el - c-. his "regNN" ..... -"P'- nolrrg .... - - ...... "'•"'"' ~~~~'· GAooce. and FJrqnd

• CCI"DC'T - . Co v In ~lng u an oiii'CIIll 1<> Cnina'a pcoo1110n Ia undlanged. Thai mtby Oft1oloto IR>Cialislp<~· · may be to&WIO NCOnd """'vf1l! ~ lnOir OO'oM1Q dopenaence on CH,_ equ;pmen~, but ..a.too Jn. Mild Support Fl'om Hanlttnt Reg-: Eat ···-""' OldvanJriGeOUt p~... - !Mit • Gennat>r 1m _, """' sy,.,_,..c to CHna't - -"""'.,.-be pn.uicn of •amlconttftutlcNI eJEnents., • ~te -10 _._ 0,.,., ,_ prg - .... _ ..,.. __p!MdfU>I<:~- -. -"'~ _,_,_.,....._ E.cltoc1* ._, PltAtil wlh I» P'dc Pill... hi · - negdW .....~~- to ­ - lhiol -~ ...-. .. .-- .... * ....,.!he appoowr• ~to -11)1. The ..ootMion ,...,..,., PRC -·I HOng Kong ~ ...... ,. , d8ffl'ted R*llltlw....,. ~·--In ~far .. -Alborlla.---··"'boltiU.­u-.onc~CNna••-ng-lhroughvl-. 11101 decedao. --~ Pll*1""""-'time"' ,_ BB!ir-•oon•• ., •--"'~"'- ~Rd=.o-;-t.!.-:.:;.;J: - ·cor-..- ...... ___ .,..., leo--roc· I ·-• ...... -do .. ~ .. -...... -...... , 6t>n'Jltl-.,_. ----llldiO .. NNew...... ,....-._ M'o'r-llalbiMIIII - ...., ______u.o ..,....,_,....., w-.ot>fltHallllot ooo-11111 .. -IIINGIIIe In Bo"og- A•pne• ....kl'lf9*M I ...... ,....._'"" lllocS Ci*-'1 ..... In .. I o•dl a a ...., .'II In be 1Up,Hd ... Caocu• f-orlor-.Opth£•• ....11011 CN•aa Ia ...... ~ ...... ct.wllap-. -~--"'oiN~ - ·... .-...... - .. bt',...... _.,., ...... _ hlild, .. -...., -.. lor ll>e-Rouge. ,...... --"*'­ Flllj>4noe ._ ...... , ,.,.. .,. -·· Clolna'a .... - ....ogoll' --·.... In ,..t to ""'-0101_...... -~·~­ ...-...on tranldamlllk::WO&> tlanlntllll.,.,_tMrRo~-...... Phllpplno .-.._-.. ""'' • 11-. Somot. ""'*"'Y ._,.... - ...... ,._ s.andl tram .. Chfl:lll ~ lepillll.. 'V IIIIo ,_. • ,.....,.on d a• •• .,. • nsrllli1lll ,_-no ..., r .,,.._Dong 1n ~· ~modi,.._ '+"*-'l. uw.-. bal'l tD 11r1ct ai...,. prstl s• lftd 110 p4IIIT'l0Cr'ICJ -*- na awo aa o Jriogtd!jr - 1111n0 ""- et1lo lollt ~ ...... _... I'Nippo• ...,.'*"... llr9"· '--~--- llo'Yon ...... ,.,01*- ln...... - ...... AI60Cia- andbUM"III .... III. St._, .....'JlW~ .... oi-AIIoni'J" ••(ASEAN).-• ...... -~~~~-~~ Woolam"-1- ...... , CXIJICiemrted ttw alill!Ha GwaiiiWit. •~ PAC. Tlw ...... pceiilllll'lll--- ..... -IO .. --~ ...... ~ II t;t&Mnl.tD ct.alill papiiiW ~ ...... _...,,.,....,...... -~ -­ lll.llalllcllli ,_-....,., .....-- d ... --~~---_ ...._. piiJeol .-..o"-" ~ b¥ ~ ..r r. PICI'e. deepeD­ ,_,...... ,.,__ .... de..,n. ~ Oftldlll· ·---d·~ PRC ,....._ 1hat Ing~,.._,...... ,.....,.,.... SECl'IET - • I< • tnd..,alan m~ and inlelNgenoe olllc:lol•. •~ lI,. weyo ""''*"'us o1 Chinose l111en!lco used 11141 tloos _,.,dOtg lna-ltw1ng subo-. erad ...r 11>wu cntlclzed In 1ho pIllty.•. ..-lhe -.hlp ol fle CCP nonlnlorlel•""' policy and 10 give - C>C>Yerage et'IICI h CNneee Go~" HII'V:II't catetu1 acJ. 1o 11>o ...,,...... c- - "' • pollojo' of Murolly ""' ~ ~ lheoomploodlyDI 11o -tel!tdoo• wllh Is flll&.plan leaders fear .,., e~~~prea14ont of QiiWtl otigtt>o(. A mlfor UCHWit f11-fa'lo( b):) COI't-- soicl~ will\11>o-., Bol.lniJ by their c-·· llnlto "' 'Y"' repair ...... Willi ""'PRe. 6111 ...... - Is N _,..., .... tho 0111 I fll!lllly, ,_.,.__..,· ~ ...... -ily---_l'!tnolki--Ni CIMIIry"w­d only ..,...... """ .. - O!ruvgle-"""" ~~~­ that he !loped ... u:no\ In Cttlna- bot .... ~ pcllleal .,.,..,..,, IILfglll - eerprtg't - on qolcldy. bulmott tiiO­ --. Be41ng. Doti>M- ~"'""' -did_..,. 1011 otto, nl Mailofelor. ChinOMgoouJ>$ LHI, Iii.- ~. ha -118 pecpie C<'l:y clelvwed prot"""' to tne PRC ~- •-a-.....,...ot.-nOtlna,• ;ng flaC. a...''' pctlcy--~ llle~ ~·peace pnaa. • IIIIIGIPO" lssuod ASEAII'o """-' afticial ( dlmMd- ,_. ...· Pttno Of ton:e t.llnlo1or agahlt 1M .... - mec~ - d\•• ..,.,.11 . ....,_., mrtwy ro-., - ~~N~a~ty ....­ P-,_... ,.. •• Oib•lor~lft...,. priV11181y ..omed.,.. us ollw Bill-·-- goon·r.t ,_., e4N111d --undlft•ctiQ ..cl ~ IUIIIIy "' -· - .. _., ....""""'0 ...... ,. .. n.r...... , ...... ,... tar .. a.lltue OoJw;JW6 pc*r an .. ____ ._ fi!Mdn.-ltiN OCf'IM~ ·cou ..,...... ,., . ._ ·- ,·~amtltiiO.,...ht - ..... Cit.,._ •....,._. CtlnM IWI' A c. (»!jll rndl tW#I ~lit toni! .. - .. a..ldi*Pe 1ft ll1e-. V0A. I!8C, rod N s~--awenn.. -- - ...... jM)Ic _id ·- __· but ,., --- ...... ,_ -ID a11col CO\IOf8g8-.....- ..-lotl1cllc Hcf'cl -~ l '""" -~l'lbeo ~~-aiHong IQioliln'l __-~· _., ___ Ling ..." 10 - 0.. klr ll1e ...... "' CDUiilllli i~ ...... or coridti•••• Ct*tii!J ac:ta& \\ltl.maee mecla - oe-.., ...... -PRC ~ « ...... alii! Ill Go\...... ll'ldld'PNifdent 0*!111 ...... , ~CDI ..... on--f'te4em­ v.-c sn..glul'l • Iii Mr 1<>. ond • - · OiWbdoi• cr b ~ • sCiiililn'l tplkel Fereign Seoiiltli)'l: Will to ...... ,.. caoc:IIlli At ,_ f~ ccnll- a BIIC'-',_ Hanoi ,...... IMII\JM...... 1het ~ • MdwtJidy-'"" .. atlt no-•. tuwa..,, ---lw,ll ...... - IUIII'Q twt b .,_.,.,..., .. _,.., a-••• .... ----""'tdotmnld atlt-. .. _, _,_~~,.,.,. PAC ~-· dU ::atblng troop~ M'O «< 1'1Udems. Qt.... -.,. - Cion LOU In South p ..... -by-" a*-. lllo...... Arrwetca ~ ...... ~ ...... W...g • -

SECA.ET SECReT

COUil1liti be4oro his plaDMd- ao>d sob-"'Y can­ the Alnorican oonsplrw:y In <::In and pal a heavy ao---..sil IO IN US. Hlo ~ - - """" lor II.' - ~., - ...... oery Cuban sugar et~n1ta&ted with hurted Mexice11 I.Oo­ lllogecl, ,... 'led ~!y by agents olh -­ metoee--llot his .-sago was bolonced. tn ECIIodor, ""-"flOCidy ll1e us. -lis _, goU. • Q\an sald stwentd..,..,do..,... "'~ Wltwas necessal)l 10 roeslalllish po.Cllic or4«. Qlan sad 11'19 Tho Irony 10 lllal Oang and .... """""" - po11Cf ot _...... would ,..,_ and loNign po1;cy ,...,• • rril"-'<:y Mf> ""' ...... ,.,•• ...., lboy -.gatd woold riOt -.. the 0\AU'If~. They are -of a..~ ..-a!lng "" OM\ t0 ..uti - ..,.by PRC• ·slgned ~ to Of*1 ccnou- '-"' SIMII>ghol- Santllgo. lnlllal .-.of lite boruvo•lll PRO~ t""lolca·C111ciem- *'' ..._ On.lliiea, CeslrDobO __Ihe_ - lOr-lit 1M Mnirr)' 011 ~ Allllh tpetw:uz••, a~ca(lf WlologlcalwoctrJ'I'ilw. Ceen he not IJlllou•Mdh __ .,. ec ....,•-·-·• ~--~ ...... VIt*:tl~ - 0( QMoncut. ondhe ~ --­ ...,_• ...__. .,....,_...,.,..by . In,...,...... , • good-'"""' - 1>1 -be Yuan Muond ___,.,..lo ~n..,.. an -~~-·-· ~-- ... -..-..- ...... ------..Qrolclal7-h .... l'n coa.,._ aft'o,.aulon.e.....,..-..o.ry ...... dllpfit...,...... md PrMioll)'. -- a ~ - IJ'IIsed a. ... Pi- ... ~ lor Ills lno!gte hill 011-...... Wettem ¥aluM.~ -.aut.r::e • • g4obal 111M and ""~>~••"' er-,• ....-on - al the oblllegfc lind ...... nc - _., bo "" booolo "" PlA10 M.CJPIIII Wtnot"'*ilbl. polqr_.. PRC.

A_,..,. 7 a.'l.-uutn ~ ••eno.w heel El---C>llla.ly _ _llw """ PAC. . -·-- '-.. w chilli ol ·· •••kin--.. (,Nil\' , ...... af -...... ood ... I"'CIIU.UwW>--~~~- la__ lca....,., - · Ollna'a illlllyto-.... diP-·-·- ..... --tD - ·--"'""~­ media.-.. ~ ... _...... damage b 10te9t ••lllo ..- depend on a.. toreet dM'No• IIR : 111 ca and 1Nt IUDh -.on. e>CIOnt olllte orogollog ,..-ge, _lor.,.-·*"' ...... ~ wa tiN p1ar11r owr.,....aonal ~

SECNT SECRET . 17 .

(C) Appendix: China's New Leaders

Jiang Zemln

Urbane. enel>ebty ''"' meet ·w-;z..r ot China'$ top l..,dors. Jiang's ~ and ,.,.. - .nlndO:Oiod by 011 tncldenlln 1987 wnon ho "'"' ltom the VIP ,.,...., 81 S~ Nallonol Day fe$. t.Mdes to conduct a e:ymphony orc:hatra.ln • IOU5I inQ vel$lon ot the /11/emallon~. compfete >Oi1h llasflln9 ~ and doud$ ol """""'·

Ji.allll ~ales goom0111an, ancl a smOIIMr'CI of othor I~; lo a oonnoiss.. ., ot fJ&intinQ Md both ChineN ar.cl w..,...,.,_.,.,_...,plays lhepilnoand 1>81111>00 flllle. He '- a natty dre8Mt' """' gor...... -y enjoys giYe-dl; ~ he

-rnaniollaw"' h - Shlllgh&lon>e ...... 01 -·

ln9efn;JndltUld to- been In~ ... '"""""""10 - of """"'' oflon ID poA>Oo Mhomollld_lhe_..,,..on~. -wtnce ""ot -~ln ...... So!IG Ping A long1fme elqMflln-1)481 " "' og and­ - .... Sang Pmg lo .-In -II& "' ""' ..... P8I1Y pan!--- ..... 72, he It .... ollhe­ IBadel""''a oldef.n ~ lnd he 15 a dOM •~ cl01t9 ol \1100 Plonolor Yao Ylln and pariY- Cllon vun. 9oog !lao a ~ tot be(ng ~ and

SECRET SECRET - . 18. ~ruptlble. His promolon wll add ~rvallve bal· Pol-Sl:indlng Comrronoo eJid SeerfiAII!al and hlo laiiiO me Standing C~. respanslblll!y lcr propagat>de allairs ~st oorlalnly· will roqwe lhe 'on!lded' 1ten8ler.

Ll Rulhuan U ""' """"" h!Qh·lewl can~. lnculng dose n~IOIIonshlps -.1th ro!""'*" Wan u. Hu Qll. roo One ol "" -rsllip'o f$W ~made men. U late Hu Y-.g, and ltalle unlo<1 chlof Nl Zhltu. In Rllhlan (55) iS one cl - c:hlldntt1 lrom a poor 198$ Dong vlsfled TIGnjln and hlgllly ptalMd liMo ely -ant hM'nily. A.'J a ~ t>d\ft he llecarne a oar· and .. llll1'/l)l'f0flll'cmodllglor. '---· o.ng pontet and ·moc~e~-er."IIIM -ng himself in aleo ~sec~ lh "*" laldll>g ot - c~omon­ mal'! and gecmooy and an.ntln9righlodlooll0olucly S1rataos In 1986-87; u f'IIII'IM IIley MHJkl beexpollodlrom.-and~poorjob dteln II>& conoYIIei8COilt ~lho Mao-In 1117&-..ndlbo IJode uniol\4. epa!Gpmam. cllfl'- TlanJn waou no!~-·-· a._ olsbldenl-.n (tuggG$1fng u may -·..eel~ lko -In In 19811>11 ~>eeame\1ce IM)'crol11...,, a major 1~87), bu! 1'llffn ·-cld pla:f ... - ..... lnclu:olrial c:ily ,._. ~ He bocomemayor in 1982 In llel.t>g'$ protests - i.J del ..... - 10 lorooiiO and mu~ p!111Y dMIIn ISS7. H& SIOO joNd 11>11 P-In ISI87. A.'J may«, he !\as wangly 8UJ>­ """*"' ummrn"" Clly. 1.. paotedu. •open dOOr,··~ lheccmiNdian of. Ding Gllangtn clevolapnlellt ZOM Nl and atliiiCilve IOm'8 av-.lnorm- Ctoin&"'""""'"'­ 10 fotelgtlln- A .....opedlllllf. ling I'll)-Na 11M II> DefVIpaa., Hentalactldllft~~ --·AtklltdpoiUdalo, u.•~..,.._ ... beral.,._lniWI. ~-clllenp 111e 'peopWs _ _.._Ill._,. 6_.. ..tfl llridlle para-. Dlnil becwne...._of Rail-In I·· bu! """V'""' In 1!181 .. ""P'<'~ -·-- (IUCIIei*'Q annualllals af GO* lor ...... ,..IQ and --ln. flrcxo'oVIII c:ily lie. Dilen .,. -..y!Gr.. ..-tlillvaiCilldlle. Dlnil~ - ag a wong ceoddtdafor alapjablnsotn!l, u In - fOt - ... -··belere lloe'lllllfiiOI>- 1\as lllt

....·

; ·. . . .:...... - " . ,. " ..., . . .•. . . . •·. • '· . " . ,...... :• .·.""· ... :·.:'-·<4of"O:·~~ • :· ._...... : , :, ··~·· ~r ·t)U:· ("tto.oT'..•.

SECRET