Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga Saturday, August 28th, 2021

Race 1 – Inner Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $100k Maiden Allowance for 2YOs

#1 Royal Spirit 3/1 #1A So Determined 3/1 Soft entry for Pletcher and Repole typically campaign dirt runners so this might just be a starting spot to give them a spin before making a surface switch.

#3 Electability 7/2 Turf pedigree is nothing remarkable here and likely gets offered as an underlay with Chad starting for one of his main owners. Contender but looking to beat.

#4 Spin Wheel 10/1 Both half-siblings are turf winners with one of them Grade 1 placed. Connections sport quite low win percentages in this spot, however.

#5 Martini’nmoonshine 15/1 Showed nothing in two dirt starts despite a collection of solid workout times. We’ll see if the surface makes the difference as both half-siblings have multiple wins on grass.

#7 Doctor Davis 5/1 Failed favorite on debut at 60/67, has a right to improve in 2nd start but #10 much more professional.

#8 Speaking Scout 8/1 Moves to higher percentage barn after 68h/64 debut and should run better today.

#9 Daunt 20/1 Nothing in particular stands out for runner starting with an 0 for 17 turf debut barn.

#10 Sweeping Giant 3/1 Only a handful of runners here have tried turf with this one being really the only of those to put up a respectable debut. 57/70 is a good running line to move forward off of here. No surprise to see this one co-favorite on the morning line.

Must include: 10 Fringe Adds: 4-5 Deep Toss-Ins: 7-3-8 Race 2 – Dirt – 6 Furlongs $100K Maiden Allowance for 2YOs

#1 Back To Normal 6/1 75/64h NEG debut points to a regression at face value. Could be argued that a track rated “good” can be more tiring on a runner depending on the consistency of the soil that day. Runner was also no match for winner and possibly could have given more if closer. Received some support last out and I may be looking to ignore the NEG and back this one’s 2nd try as the experienced horse in here.

#2 Dr. Perry 7/2 Connections are 0 for 6 hitting the board with first timers this summer. $690k purchase has a bullet gate workout before going into maintenance mode in preparation for today’s debut so should be well- intentioned.

#3 Be Better 3/1 Pletcher/Repole runner is in a more well-intentioned spot starting here on the main track than the pair of runners we seen from them in last race. Has a couple full siblings that can run a little bit.

#4 Hoist The Gold 73/62 NEG debut indicates a runner that has some work to do with energy distribution.

#5 Jack Christopher 9/5 Solid pedigree for owners who pick them pretty well. Dirt not Chad’s main spot but still does well enough in this 2YO debut spot. Under 2/1 is a bit low though.

#6 Illustrious 10/1 First foal of the damn has a solid sire and while there’s some big name trainers in this race we indicated don’t overly excel in this spot, that’s not the case here. Ward with Breeze Easy debut runners are 8 for 14 so how do you not back this one offering longest odds on the board.

#7 Steinbeck 8/1 $650k purchase for Pletcher has the look of a late runner.

Horizontal Wagers Competitive race full of potential may require spreading across multiple selections.

Race 3 – Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $103k Allowance NW2 for F&M 3YO & Up

#1 Princess Fawzia 10/1 Triggered a PLOW 2 back as runner learned how to traverse the wider turns of Belmont so could return to this Saratoga course with a better understanding of energy distribution. Liked to establish prominent position last year and could return to that spot today. Stands a shot with that 10/1 line being about right.

#1A Sparkling Sky 10/1 Had some good late acceleration when young with a win and a PLOW in first 3 starts. May be returning back to where she belongs here at two turns. 10/1 is fair as you also get the coupled entry.

#2 Vividly (GB) 8/1 Goes 2nd off the PLOW and ranks as another with a shot but needs odds as Final Figure improvement is demanded.

#3 Golden Plume 5/2 Moves on to face winners after an easy 55/69 debut score back in January. Likely had more to give if needed but does remain unproven against actual competition so don’t accept too short of odds.

#4 Windfall Profit 12/1 Hasn’t passed a rival in competition yet this year.

#6 Secret Time (GER) 9/2 Still looking for her first stateside victory, she couldn’t quite sustain down the stretch last out on a 58h/71h. Doesn’t appear to have it any easier here today with plenty of the field looking to bother her early with better Average and Last 4F Figures. Lost to a pair of worthy opponents last out.

#7 Kitten By The Sea 8/1 Woke up last out with a big performance. Any repeat of that 63h/75 gives her a great shot to repeat here. 8/1 would be juicy enough to back a bet here although I’d expect her to take more action than that as she’s gone off the favorite in 3 of her last 4.

#8 Love And Thunder (IRE) 7/5 Big favorite enters off a couple performances with turf spreads +17 and +19 that make her the main stretch threat against this group. Will need to include as the most formful turf runner but can still be vulnerable if a rival gets away up front with plenty of kick. #7 feeling good currently.

Horizontal Wagers Must use: 7-8 Fringe adds: 1-3 Deep Toss-Ins: 6

Race 4 – Inner Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $400k Grade II Ballston Spa S. for Older F&M

#1 High Opinion 8/1 Finished in exacta 5 of last 6 spins always passing rivals late. Has been known to come up short pretty often but a switch to today’s track proved successful at 55/72. Even in today’s short field, you can still find a handful of rivals that can match the Final Figure as well as turf spread she offers. Belongs in this spot but can’t rate as one of the top contenders. Losing Lasix for first time is always a question as well.

#2 Tamahere (FR) 7/2 Has been disappointing since triggering a PLOW on a yielding track in April. The Euro bounce angle seems to have stuck with this one since winning her first stateside try. Until she starts showing better, hard to recommend.

#3 Viadera (GB) 8/5 Closed last season with a pair of 80+ Finals on the heels of a TDL, the strongest form cycle pattern for a turf runner. Solid 2021 debut with a 58/76 on this track which fits well for what it will take to win this. Does have company however.

#4 New York Girl (IRE) 6/1 Solid enough turf spreads in the +18 range over this year but does lack a bit on the Final Figure. Tough to ask her to accelerate much more so her ceiling may just be a notch below this field.

#5 Platinum 10/1 Most experienced runner in field went on a tear last fall winning 5 of 6 races before being claimed and bumped way up in class for these connections. From a $12,500 claimer to graded stakes placed, this one has some momentum going here. Last out’s 59/73h on this track won’t get it done today but an interesting entry with some odds nonetheless.

#6 Kalifornia Queen (GER) 2/1 Has had the look of a high class turf runner since Day 1 in the states sporting a +21 turf spread first out and triggering a PLOW in 3rd start over here. Looks to move off a 57/76 here.

Horizontal Wagers Tough race to find value in with top two likely holding most of the win likelihood here. Use 2 & 6 and move on.

Race 5 – Dirt – 6.5 Furlongs $85k Maiden Allowance for NY-bred YOs

#4 Whittington Park 2/1 The 78/66 NEG running line on debut is one that leaves him susceptible to runners who may be more compressed to take over late. However, of those that have ran the 78 4F Figure stands out as an advantage. In maiden events, speed becomes especially important as a handful of these runners don’t possess the will to pass a rival at all. Boasts the best pedigree of the field and is a must use.

#5 Raw Courage 12/1 Has gotten some support at this level but hasn’t seen a fast dirt track yet. Could see what this one really has to offer today.

Horizontal Wagers #4 looks like a strong contender in a shaky field and could be considered as a single in this sequence.

Race 6 – Turf – 5.5 Furlongs $103k Allowance for 3YOs & Up

#1 After Five 5/1 Negative turf spread runner backed off a bit last out when facing winners for the first time. Stands a chance to get buried from the inside spot but does possess a good foundation to turn things around here against a field largely made up of runners not as seasoned in this spot as this one. 5/1 does seem about right.

#3 Gins and Tins 15/1 Consistent runner has been in there racing with pretty predictable results. Does get a upgrade today but lacks any indication of a sudden move forward.

#6 Charmed (GB) Lightly-raced runner is a good workhouse sporting a lot of bullets and enters with an excuse stumbling in last out but finishing up on a 77/72 that should be improved upon today.

#7 Colton’s Command 5/1 Connections showed confidence with this one by starting him right out at a mile where he was much the best. Professional enough to run a PLOW on 2nd asking, I’d maintain this one has the tools to have a good career on grass despite shaky results against winners thus far. Was caught a bit off guard when cut back to a sprint with a 77/70h and should be better prepared today after seeing the race flow that comes with that distance.

#8 Mamba On Three 10/1 3 for 4 on turf in his short career so far, he’ll take a deserved step up today. Set some blazing 4F Figures in the Gulfstream victories but was much more compressed last out on a 73h/72 running line. Deserves some consideration for double-digits for a sneaky trainer. Alvarado ends up here despite being the #7’s lifetime rider.

#9 Shiraz 3/1 Sports some heavy 4F Figures from Belmont’s configuration which could work well with today’s track switch. Has some foundation from last year in the 83/76 range on this track, a running line that can lock this one in as top contender.

#10 Christopher 8/1 May have found his ideal surface and distance easily victorious last out when trying a turf sprint. The 77h/73 needs a push to run with today’s rivals but the easy victory indicates there could be more to give here.

#11 Big Package 5/2 Sports a couple big running lines as of late featuring solid 4F Figures to get him into position and a compressed spread with worthy Final Figures to get him home. The 77/75 from last rates well for this race but concerning he has a history of taking races off after running big.

#12 Lomu 30/1 Has shown little progress for new barn despite the ability to pop bullet works in the morning.

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 9 Fringe Adds: 11-8 Deep Toss-Ins: 1-7-10-6

Race 7 – Dirt – 7 Furlongs $500k Grade I Ballerina Handicap for F&M 3YOs & Up

#1 Gamine 3/5 She’ll be a single for many and could very well look like a paid workout today. The 88/82 NPT last out was her most “forward” dirt spread of her career making it likely she’ll show better energy distribution today. Very tough to beat.

#5 Sconsin 9/2 Not often do sprinters trigger negative dirt spreads (4F minus Final) so this one looks to have some big late speed. With the compressed 83h/82h coming off an NPT, this one can certainly keep the momentum going and race well today. Win chances will come down to race flow as she will need a set- up with Gamine being heavily pressured to open the door. Works well to include if you’re looking to beat Gamine in any horizontal sequences.

#7 Ce Ce 4/1 Likely needs to go early here and pressure Gamine up against the rail to stand a shot.

Race 8 – Dirt – 7F $600k Grade I Forego Stakes for 4YOs & Up

#1 Mischevious Alex 6/1 Failed badly last out as the favorite on a very forward 81h/70h. Runners that work up to big ceilings then falter often won’t run back to their full potential without a layoff.

#2 Whitmore 4/1 Triggered a CPT 3rd off the layoff, a spot where that form cycle pattern is the most powerful for older runners. Was laid off a bit after that where the positive effects could have worn off a little. I’d bet on the 79/77 from last out to be improved on here.

#3 Lexitonian 9/2 Blew up the tote last out when bursting off a dud off an NPT, a spot we indicated can produce big payoffs. Loses some appeal without the juicy odds to back.

#4 Mind Control 7/2 Goes 2nd off the NPT after finding a spot 76h/76 SOFT victory. Remains eligible here to move forward 2nd time for new connections.

#5 Doubly Blessed 15/1 Router enters deep waters here as he’ll need to set down harder than he has before. Likely will be outran early and needs a lot of help with several strong sprinters here having to go backwards in stretch to allow him to get up. Not impossible but a lot needs to happen for him.

#6 Chance It 20/1 Runner has been pretty compressed throughout career which leads to a spot where he doesn’t possess the 4F to find an early spot to take advantage of coupled with a Final Figure that isn’t strong enough for this field either.

#7 Yaupon 5/2 Showed up looking good off the Dubai ship with an 83h/82h victory, a vast improvement in energy distribution compared to the previous Pimlico try at 86h/81. Should be ready to set down in a spot that points to improvement.

#8 Firenze Fire 6/1 Seems to be falling out of form since a pair of summer wins with the Final Figure tumbling fast from 79 to 74h

Horizontal Wagers I like spreading across 2,4,7 here as a trio that should produce the winner of this race a high percentage of the time.

Race 9 – Dirt – 7 Furlongs $500k Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial for 3YOs

#1 Drain The Clock 6/1 Does his best work with front-running position but runs into a tough spot today likely bothered all the way by next door rival Jackie’s Warriror. Runner caught slop last out which can often carry a runner further than usual so is essentially now still needing to work off a DTOP earned 2 races back. Regression could be likely.

#2 Jackie’s Warrior 1/1 Has a number of routes in the past running lines where pulling the race from within the race using 4F/6F Figures shows he can flash speed over any distance. The 88h/77 from Belmont transfers better to Saratoga than on that track so plenty of positives here for the morning line favorite. This field as a whole is still relatively lightly-raced so there remains the threat of up-and-coming runners ready to burst a top effort.

#3 Newbomb 30/1 Last out winner on today’s course but the 77/72h lacks in comparison to this field by enough that you’d need super stout odds to ask for that much improvement.

#4 Following Sea 5/1 Faltered in the deep waters of the Haskell when checked up last out but does have an 84h/78 NPT to build from 2 races back. Assuming a better trip and a move forward from Belmont, we can hold him to that 5/1 odds line as a target to back.

#5 Judge N Jury 15/1 Triggered a REV last out when professional enough to only put up the 4F needed to secure the lead providing him the energy to draw well off. Now finds a field that’ll work him a bit tougher so safe to say he could revert to a running line more representive of 2 race back when showing an 82/72.

#6 Life Is Good 8/5 Runner is a perfect 3 for 3 all in professional manner. You would normally see a runner come off a REV (Reversal) to try more distance but instead this one looks to set down with a cut back. Runner has never been challenged so there’s no telling where the ceiling might be. For that reason, you can’t toss out. Also because runner has never been challenged, there’s the threat that he’ll fold when looked in the eye. For that reason, you can’t single him.

Race 9 Wagering There’s really no way to find good value in this race. It’s a short field that consists of a couple heavy co- favorites that likely can’t be tossed out nor singled. Skip.

Race 10 – Dirt 9 – 9 Furlongs $600k Grade I Personal Ensign S. for Older F&M

#1 Dunbar Road 20/1 After peaking at age 4, her 5-year old season is off a little slower as she failed to move forward upon 2nd start of the year dropping a 71/77 into a 70h/75. Midpack type runner right back.

#2 As Time Goes By 6/1 Maintained a pretty consistent set of Figures throughout the spring campaign losing only to Swiss Skydiver in 4 races. She’d like you to draw a line through last when stumbling in that one. Questionable as to whether this one has any room to move forward. Her consistent set of figures may already be her giving her very best. You’d think shipping cross coasts would automatically make this one well- intentioned but who knows as Baffert’s Saratoga ships haven’t been overly impressive the last couple years with 5 of the last 8 missing the board completely.

#3 Bonny South 10/1 Perhaps she didn’t like the track or didn’t like being rated to a career low 4F Figure, but either way didn’t fire well late last out. To be fair, leading into that stretchout to 10F, she had been gaining sustainable pace rather than late pace so letting her go would have fell into her current condition much better than rating. Should be ready to fire better here thinking that last race didn’t take much out of her. Finds a tough field today but recent Figures do give her a shot at this field that features some prominent names possibly not who they used to be. I’d set my fair odds at 8/1 here.

#4 Swiss Skydiver 7/2 After an epic sophomore campaign, you have to wonder if it took enough out of her we may not see the 4-year old season be her peak as it is with most other runners. She’s failed to make the board her last 2 and her dirt spreads of -3 to -5 this season lack late run compared to the bulk of today’s field.

#5 Royal Flag 10/1 Runner possesses competitive spirit having hit the exacta in 8 of 10 lifetime spins. Should be in good condition here stringing together consistent running lines with competitive Finals. In deep here but a look for double digits if she can be worked into a sequence without a significant investment.

#6 Letruska 6/5 Deserving favorite will try to take them gate-to-wire, something she does often. Regression is always a worry when dealing with runners returning from a Lifetime Top Final. There are some rivals that can match her on the 4F end, but she has been very good at remaining relaxed up front. Most of this field has been capable of running an 80+ Final at some point, but it does appear to be a field that is mostly past its prime. It is possible she can regress here and still win.

#7 Miss Marissa 20/1 As an outsider, her running style doesn’t bode well for her upset chances against this particular group.

#8 Harvey’s Lil Goil 8/1 Grades stakes winning turf runner has previous dirt experience as a COMP runner and winner in 2nd career start as well as a minor stakes victory and a Grade 1 show finish. Runner is a student of energy distribution having set a big PLOW 3 back and accelerating to a Lifetime Top Final last out. Entered here hoping for a meltdown up front leaving the door open for runner trained to take advantage. Could be a good add to horizontal wagers as she covers the scenario of a fast pace well. She has some fans and may take a bit too much money here for me to consider as a straight win bet.

#9 Graceful Princess 15/1 Dramatic turnaround in last sporting a -11 dirt spread after most of her runs featured spreads above 0. The 79h Final Figure was a Lifetime Top and you have to think things just aligned for her that day. Tough to repeat without the foundation and progression to explain the result.

Race 10 Wagers #3 Bonny South to WIN at 8/1 or better Exacta Box #3 with 5,6,8

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 3-6 Fringe Adds: 8-5 Deep Toss-Ins: 2-4-1

Race 11 – Turf – 12 Furlongs $750k Grade I S. for 4YOs & Up

#1 Tribhuvan (FR) 2/1 Takes his 4th straight stretch out in distance here drawn inside and very likely to go to the lead here. Could see comfortable fractions but possibly vulnerable as he continues to add distance while not being the best at rating. He gives rivals here that run turf spread over +20 a target to run at.

#2 Gufo 3/1 Never off the board in 11-race career looks to improve kick here on the heels of a 40/73 PLOW at today’s distance.

#3 Rockemporer (IRE) 6/1 Outrun late last time at this distance but now works back to it today. Runner has been consistent but no remarkable progress made with his acceleration. Likely see another honest effort here but not quite good enough.

#4 Channel Maker 8/1 Defending champ may have needed one in last after a semi-successful stint in the Middle East. Has been a cyclical type runner so look for this one to begin improving starting here in hopes of making yet another Breeders’ Cup appearance.

#5 Moretti 15/1 Possibly only entered here in case weather washes this one off the grass, but assuming he is indeed intended to make his turf debut, it’s quite the tough spot for him. He has a good range of distances ran on dirt and it works well that as the distance increases, so does his spread of distributing energy more evenly. These dirt running lines can translate well to turf but often the advantage is that a dirt runner will produce speed on turf and hold it better due to the less stressful surface. In this field, he meets established turf runners that have already made a name for themselves doing just that so he’s up against it here.

#6 Japan (GB) 9/2 Unfortunately, no pace figures available for foreign runners at this time. He’s been all over Great Britain and won multiple Group 1 events though and you can consider most everything Aidan O’Brien sends abroad to be live. Seems to prefer firmer ground to softer so could take well to American turf.

#7 Cross Border 4/1 Well-raced here in 2021 with a consistent record of high Final Figures and big turf spreads. Should be looking to stalk and pounce here. Nothing wrong with the outside where he can gallop in the clear until the real race starts entering the final turn. If you’ve ever heard the term “horse for the course,” check out his Saratoga record of 6 wins and a second from 7 starts.

Race 11 Wagers #7 Cross Border to WIN at 4/1 or better

Trifecta: 7 with 4,6 with ALL 7 with ALL with 4,6 4,6 with 7 with ALL

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 7 Fringe Adds: 4-6 Deep Add-Ons: 1-2-5

Race 12 – Dirt – 10 Furlongs $1.250,000 Grade I Travers Stakes for 3YOs

#1 Midnight Bourbon 9/2 Went down in the Haskell but escaped unharmed and looks to get back on track today after a push through Triple Crown season where we saw him sustain pace while still building his Final Figure when prompting a pair of 80+ performances in the Derby and Preakness. Outside of facing off with today’s strong favorite, the rest of the field is a much more manageable field than he’s used to seeing.

#2 Essential Quality 4/5 Undefeated outside the Derby where he did well to run through a tough trip (as many get in that race). He has multiple victories triggering a SOFT pattern as he’s a smart runner able to time it right and only exert what’s needed to reel in his opponents. Can’t see a rival locking up for a duel with this one and winning. Rivals most capable of upsetting likely need to “shoot to steal” here.

#3 Keepmeinmind 6/1 His best Finals show up as the distance gets longer so looks like a good stretch out for him today. He’ll need a set up and trip but it’s a bit discouraging he seemed to have gotten that opportunity last out and still couldn’t close the deal. I need a bit better than 6/1.

#4 Dynamic One 6/1 Took a big step forward when seeing today’s track last out at 65h/76. Another on the improve that can get up late but is begging for a meltdown up front. Needing help from rivals to win means you need odds to back. If you’re trying to cover the meltdown scenario, I’d rate this one a better threat than #3.

#5 Miles D 12/1 Did well to distribute his energy evenly enough to trigger a REV first time routing but his dirt spreads remain a bit tighter than others here. Seems best using his speed to an advantage going a bit shorter than today’s stretch out.

#6 Masqueparade 8/1 Got the jump on a couple of today’s rivals last out but couldn’t hold. The extra distance could be good if it meant he gets the lead again and sees softer fractions.

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 2 Fringe Adds: 6-4

Race 13 – Turf – 8.5 Furlongs $50k Maiden Claiming for F&M 3YOs & Up

#1 Dancing Firefly 9/5 Just missed on debut with the 48h/66 featuring the biggest turf spread this field has produced. Others have duplicated this Final Figure but the tiebreaker in turf contests comes down to turf spread. Understandable choice to be favorite but being buried on the inside is an iffy spot for a maiden claimer who may not possess the herd dynamics to work this trip out. Goes for solid connections but at this point, Saez might just be ready to go home. After riding at Saratoga yesterday, he made the trip to West Virginia to ride at Charles Town and now will be winding down another full card today. Just a thought.

#2 Grace In Motion 20/1 Pretty slow 64/62 move sprinting on debut. Perhaps the switch to a route here will put her closer to the pace and give her a reason to run on a bit better. She also gets Lasix today. Was not well-supported on debut and features weak trainer statistics. Certainly an outsider here but I wouldn’t count her as zero chance if you’re going super deep in this leg.

#3 Decreed 50/1 Certainly better on the less stressful turf surface than dirt but may lack the talent to put up a winning effort in a field of this size.

#4 Spanish Dreamer 15/1 Trainer is better than the meet record indicates but could be questionable placement. Pedigree doesn’t appear to be much for this turf route spot.

#5 Tales of Makenna 8/1 Sports a COMP (compression line) debut pattern which can sometime point to runners that may like turf due to their early understanding of even energy distribution. However, there remains a danger this is a false indicator in this case as this runner may have ran in this way just not liking the kickback of a sloppy track.

#6 Constitutionalrage 8/1 Seemed to be on the right track when opening the year up to a 56h/66 PLOW and finishing up 2nd next out off that positive form cycle pattern. New connections tried dirt for some reason to no avail. Needs to get back on track today being offered a field with many weak options.

#7 Tessler 10/1 Turf pedigree ranks quite weak for trainer who hasn’t sent out a turf debut winner at a mile in over 3 years.

#8 Spun For Lu Lu 20/1 Showed nothing in only turf try against much tougher with connections swallowing a loss on this $170k purchase.

#9 Elegant Laoban 50/1 Has a 51h/61 PLOW 2 races back to work off of here although that’s a bit slower than what other experienced runners have put up.

#10 Home For Christmas $230k purchase wasn’t up to par facing maiden allowance company and was quickly given up on taking the ultimate class drop after given a shot going both one and two turns on turf along with a non-effort on dirt. Certainly stands a better chance here offered up for $40k.

#11 She’s On Point 50/1 Safe for kids to ride.

#12 Sister Luck 3/1 They’ll take blinkers off here as she was a bit geared up and forward not sustaining through her dirt tries and will need to relax much better here to take well to turf. Her pedigree points much stronger to a career on dirt so I’m wondering if this entry for the new barn isn’t just a starting spot for her to have a lesson in spreading energy out over a race before she returns back to her intended dirt surface. Looking to leave out here as I’m not sure the low odds will match the true intention to win.

*Also-Eligibles*

#13 Love’s Misery 15/1 After a series of sprints to start career, tried two turns last out to a respectable 55h/66. Lacks late acceleration but does feature a Final Figure competitive with others to have ran here.

#14 Bella Principessa 4/1 Would rate as one of the top contenders if drawing in on the heels of a form cycle pattern triggering DPT on dirt and a 52/66h PLOW on turf. Can move forward beyond a foundation that includes a past 68 Final Figure which would win today.

#15 Killoean Rose 15/1 A little out of it early on debut but 51h/65h is a respectable starting spot with most 2nd time starters bound to move forward off initial efforts.

Horizontal Wagers Must Use: 14-1 Fringe Adds: 6-13-10 Deep Toss-Ins: 15-2

Any of the also-eligibles drawing in look like threats to make runs at the wire here. Without their additions, the #1 strongly rates most likely winner even with our thoughts on vulnerability factored in.

Analysis by Dustin Korth Find me on Twitter @predicteform