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1 Biological Species Report for the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus

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1 Biological Species Report for the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus Biological Species Report for the Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) Version 1.4a Bicknell’s thrush (Photo credit: Alan Schmierer) August 2017 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Northeast Region Hadley, MA 1 This document was prepared by Anthony Tur (USFWS-New England Field Office (FO)/Northeast Regional Office (RO)), Krishna Gifford (USFWS-Northeast RO), and Beth Forbus (USFWS-Headquarters (HQ)). We greatly appreciate the assistance of Dr. Randy Dettmers (USFWS-Northeast RO), Dr. John Lloyd (Vermont Center for Ecostudies), Dr. Jason Hill (Vermont Center for Ecostudies), Chris Rimmer (Vermont Center for Ecostudies), and Nancy Green (USFWS-HQ) who provided helpful information or review of sections of the working draft document. We would like to thank the following USFWS staff for their review and comments on version 1.0 of the document: Dr. Randy Dettmers (Northeast RO), Anna Harris (Maine FO), Dr. Cherry Keller (Chesapeake Bay FO), Dr. Mark McCollough (Maine FO), Martin Miller (Northeast RO), Sarah Nystrom (Virginia FO), Nicole Ranalli (Pennsylvania FO), Nicole Rankin (Southeast RO), and David Simmons (New England FO). We also would like to thank the following State or Territory natural resources staff, as well as our peer reviewers, for their assistance in reviewing and providing constructive comments on version 1.1 of the document: John W. Ozard (New York Department of Environmental Conservation, Bureau of Wildlife-Avian Diversity Unit), John Kanter and Dr. Pam Hunt (New Hampshire Fish and Game, Nongame and Endangered Wildlife), Ramon Luis Rivera (Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources), Dr. Toni Morelli (U.S. Geological Survey-Northeast Climate Science Center), Alyssa Rosemartin (USA National Phenology Network, University of Arizona), Dr. Yves Aubry and Dr. Junior Trembley (Environment and Climate Change Canada-Science and Technology Branch), and Becky Whittam (Environment and Climate Change Canada-Canadian Wildlife Service). Suggested reference: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). 2017. Biological Species Report for the Bicknell’s thrush (Catharus bicknelli). Version 1.4a. August 2017. Hadley, MA. 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 6 LIFE HISTORY AND BIOLOGY ............................................................................................... 10 Species Description and Taxonomy .......................................................................................... 10 General Life Cycle .................................................................................................................... 11 Feeding ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Breeding Behavior and Habitat ................................................................................................. 12 Fall Migration Behavior and Habitat ........................................................................................ 14 Wintering Behavior and Habitat ............................................................................................... 14 Spring Migration Behavior and Habitat .................................................................................... 16 SURVEY DATA AND POPULATION TRENDS ...................................................................... 17 Survey Efforts ........................................................................................................................... 17 Population Estimates ................................................................................................................. 19 Abundance Trends .................................................................................................................... 20 Summary of Survey Data and Trends ....................................................................................... 22 FACTORS INFLUENCING VIABILITY ................................................................................... 23 Existing Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush ................................................................. 23 Breeding Range ..................................................................................................................... 23 Summary of Existing Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush in its Breeding Range ..... 34 Wintering Range ................................................................................................................... 34 Migration Range ................................................................................................................... 36 Summary of Existing Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush in its Wintering and Migration Ranges .................................................................................................................. 37 Behavioral Disruptions and Mortality .................................................................................. 37 Summary of Current Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush.............................................. 40 Future Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush .................................................................... 42 Anticipated Changing Climate Parameters in the 21st Century ............................................ 42 Projected Future Effects of Climate Change to Bicknell’s Thrush Breeding Habitat .......... 43 Summary of Projected Future Effects of Climate Change to Bicknell’s Thrush Breeding Habitat ................................................................................................................................... 49 Increased Interspecific Competition Due to Climate Change............................................... 50 Climate Induced Increase in Predation by Red Squirrels ..................................................... 51 Anticipated Effects of Climate Change to Wintering Habitat .............................................. 52 Summary of Future Factors Influencing the Bicknell’s Thrush ............................................... 53 3 FUTURE SCENARIO CONSIDERATIONS .............................................................................. 54 Non-Climate Stressor Scenario ................................................................................................. 56 Optimistic Scenario ................................................................................................................... 56 Low Warming Scenario ............................................................................................................ 57 High Warming Scenario ........................................................................................................... 58 Summary of Future Scenario Considerations ........................................................................... 59 REFERENCES CITED ................................................................................................................. 61 4 LIST OF TABLE AND FIGURES Figure 1. Photo of Bicknell’s thrush............................................................................................10 Figure 2. Range map for the Bicknell’s thrush............................................................................11 Figure 3. Example of Bicknell’s thrush habitat from Mt. Mansfield, VT...................................13 Figure 4. Example of potential Bicknell’s thrush habitat in the Dominican................................15 Figure 5. Some locations with previously observed or declining numbers of Bicknell’s thrush .......................................................................................................................................................20 Figure 6. Estimated acres of total timber versus acres of timber stand improvement treatment in Maine from 2000 to 2015............................................................................................................. 28 Figure 7. Estimated annual removal or harvest of growing stock trees in New Hampshire from 2006 to 2015..................................................................................................................................29 Figure 8. Total number of cords harvested for all tree species versus spruce-fir in Vermont from 1997 to 2014..................................................................................................................................30 Figure 9. Millions of green tons of softwood harvested for pulpwood and chips in New York from 1999 to 2014..........................................................................................................................31 Figure 10. Estimated total acres harvested vs harvested using commercial thinning in five Canadian provinces from 1990 to 2014.........................................................................................32 Figure 11. Observed and projected trends in global CO2 emissions under four RCP scenarios (figure from Sanford et al. 2014, p 165)........................................................................................43 Table 1. Specific high-elevation landbird surveys in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada since 1991 (table adapted from Hart and Lambert 2010, p. 7).........................................18 Table 2. Extent of tree cover on four Caribbean islands occupied by wintering Bicknell’s thrushes in 2000 and the extent of decline for the period 2001 to 2014 (Hansen et
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