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Colliers CEE Report

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Colliers CEE Report EX DING BORDERS OFFICE MARKET IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES October 2019 OFFICE MARKET IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES INTRODUCTION CONTENTS 2 Welcome to our publication about the office sector in Central and Eastern Europe. The report presents the situation in the office markets in 15 CEE countries (Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, INTRODUCTION Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine). In the study, we focused on key market indicators such as total office stock, take-up and leasing conditions, vacancy levels, space under construction and a forecast for the upcoming years. The presentation of the office market in each country is also enriched with a short commentary, an interesting fact from the market and photos of modern office projects. 4-5 The report has been divided into 3 parts: • A map presenting 15 CEE countries with key economic data; ECONOMIC DATA • The comparative part, where on aggregated charts we present H1 2019 office market data for 15 CEE countries; • Presentation of the office market in each country. In recent years, the CEE region has been characterized by dynamic development, which goes hand in hand with the growth of modern office projects. We forecast that by 2021 the total office stock in the 2 6-7 15 CEE countries will exceed 30 million m . More and more office buildings can boast of prestigious certificates, modern technological and environmental solutions or an innovatively designed space. OFFICE MARKET We believe that thanks to this publication the potential of the 15 CEE countries will be rediscovered IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES IN H1 2019 and will be further developed. It is worth looking at what opportunities each country has to offer. We hope you find this an interesting read! 8-36 15 CEE COUNTRIES PROFILES Albania 8 AUTHORS Belarus 10 Bulgaria 12 Croatia 14 Czechia 16 Estonia 18 Kevin Turpin Dominika Jędrak Anna Maroń Hungary 20 Regional Director Director | Research Analyst | Research Latvia 22 of Research | CEE and Consultancy Services and Consultancy Services +420 606 725 032 +48 666 819 242 +48 882 014 433 Lithuania 24 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Montenegro 26 Poland 28 Romania 30 Serbia 32 Slovakia 34 Ukraine 36 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | H1 2019 3 RYNEK BIUROWY W KRAJACH CEE ESTONIA 1 5.0% TALLINN 2 3.9% 1.3 MILLION 3 € 1,341 LATVIA 4 46,150 1 6.5% ECONOMIC 2 4.8% 3 € 1,036 4 80,355 1.9 MILLION RIGA DATA LITHUANIA 1 5.7% BELARUS 1 4.4% 2 3.4% 2.8 MILLION 3 € 1,263 2 3.0% 4 111,260 VILNIUS 3 € 463 4 268,100 MINSK 9.5 MILLION 38.4 MILLION POLAND COUNTRIES WARSAW 15 1 3.8% 2 5.1% KYIV CZECHIA 3 € 1,173 UKRAINE 4 1,230,300 1 1.9% 1 9.2% PRAGUE 2 2.9% MILLION SLOVAKIA 42.2 2 3.3% 3 € 1,263 3 € 382 MILLION PEOPLE 1 5.4% 162 4 290,000 10.6 MILLION 4 1,520,000 2 4.1% 5.4 MILLION 3 € 1,023 BRATISLAVA 4 133,060 2 HUNGARY 9.8 MILLION MILLION M 1 3.4% 4.9% BUDAPEST OF EXISTING 2 ROMANIA 27 3 € 1,100 4,0% 4 280,000 1 OFFICE SPACE 19.5 MILLION 2 4,1% ZAGREB 3 € 1,073 4.1 MILLION CROATIA 4 531,590 1 7.1% SERBIA BUCHAREST 2 2.7% 1 11.7% 2 BELGRADEBELGRADE MILLION M 3 € 834 2 4.4% 3.7 4 160,000 3 € 435 BULGARIA UNDER CONSTRUCTION 4 256,000 7.2 MILLION 1 4.4% 0.6 MILLION MONTENEGRO 3.2% SOFIA 7 MILLION 2 PODGORICA 1 15% 3 € 617 4.5% LEGEND 2 4 270,380 3 € 775 1 Unemployment rate (%) 4 19,210 2 GDP growth 2017/2018 (%) TIRANA 3 Average monthly gross salary (EUR/month) POPULATION ALBANIA 4 Number of students 2.9 MILLION 1 12.1% 2 4.2% 3 € 422 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | POLSKA | 2019 5 4 113,000 OFFICE MARKET IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES OFFICE MARKET IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES IN H1 2019 Total office stock (m 6,000,000 in H1 2019 5,000,000 6 4,000,000 3,000 2 2,000 ,00 ) and vacancy rate (%) COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 0 1,000,000 ,00 0 0 Belgrade Bratislava Bucharest Budapest | H1 Kyiv 500,000 Minsk New supply in H1 2019 (m Take-up in H1 2019 (m Podgorica 12% 2019 400,000 T otal sto Prague 10% 200,000 300,000 Riga c 8% 180,000 200,000 k Soa 160,000 Tallinn 6 100,000 % Vacancy rate Tirana 140,000 4 Vilnius % 120,000 2 100,000 2% ) Warsaw 2 0 80,000 ) Zagreb 0% Waltrovka, developer: Penta, Prague 60,000 Belgrade 40,000 Bratislava 20,000 Bucharest Budapest 0 Kyiv Minsk Belgrade The total modern office stockPo ding otheric a15 CEE countries Bratislava in H1 2019 reached 27 million m developers completed 707,000 m Prague Bucharest Space under construction in H1 2019 (m m 2 Riga Budapest is currently under construction. Soa Kyiv The largest resources of modern office space Tallinn were recorded in Warsaw (5.5 million m 1,000,000 Minsk (3.6 million m Tirana Podgorica Stock over 1 million m Warsaw 800,000 Prague (2.6 million m Vilnius 600,000 Riga (1.9 million m 400,000 (1.35 million m Zagreb Soa 2 2 ) and in Prague (3.5 million m . In H1 2019 200,000 Tallinn The largest increase of new supply in H1 2019 2 2 , while 3.7 million Tirana was noted in Bucharest with2 a), 23%Sofia increase (2.2 million over them ), Bratislava (1.8 million m Warsaw whole 2018. Second place in terms of the amount2 2 was noted in Bucharest 0 of new office space completed) andin MinskH1 2019 (1 millionwas taken m 2 Vilnius by Sofia (91,000 m ) Belgrade Zagreb (80,500 m located in the capitals of the countries, although office 2 Bratislava markets are also developing in regional cities. ), Budapest Bucharest In H1 2019, in all capitals of 15 CEE countries, tenants 2 2 leased over 1.5 million m ), Kyiv 2 Budapest ). The majority of modern office projects is ). The most active tenant sectors included: IT, Kyiv 2 2 professional services and banking. The BPO/SSC ), followed by Warsaw 2 ), Zagreb Minsk ). sector is also developing dynamically in the majority of the 15 CEE countries. The most popular city among Podgorica tenants in H1 2019 was Warsaw (almost 406,000 m Prague leased space), Budapest came second (243,400 m Riga and Prague third (211,030 m Soa 2 The lowest vacancy rate was recorded in Belgrade of modern office space. Tallin (3.5%), Minsk (3.8%) and Zagreb (4.5%). The most Tirana amount of available office space in H1 2019 was noted Warsaw in Sofia (10.2%), Bucharest (10%) and Podgorica Vilnius (10%). Zagreb Currently, the largest amount of modern office space under construction is in Warsaw (832,730 m 2 Budapest (464,000 m ). We forecast that in 2021 the supply of modern office stock will exceed the level of 30 million m 2 2 ) 2 ) and Sofia (437,000 m 2 ), 2 2 ). 7 OFFICE MARKET IN 15 CEE COUNTRIES TALLINN ESTONIA LATVIA MARKET COMMENTARY RIGA Demand for class A office space continued unabated ALBANIA LITHUANIA during H1 2019, especially for large-sized open plan VILNIUS offices. Much of this increase in activity was driven MINSK by re-locations and/or expansions of international companies on the look out for higher quality office BELARUS space and specifically, serviced offices. Tirana’s office stock remained unchanged in H1 2019, TIRANA POLAND OFFICE MARKET H1 2019 WARSAW and reached 107,100 m2, with prime office rental KYIV rates stable. We forecast a slight downward pressure TOTAL STOCK: 107,110 m2 on primary rental rates over the next few quarters, PRAGUE UKRAINE as new projects due to be delivered to the market 2 NEW SUPPLY: 0 m in the next 12 months will increase the availability CZECHIA of office stock. VACANCY RATE: 8.9% SLOVAKIA BRATISLAVA 2 European Trade Center (ETC Building), TAKE-UP: 330 m Primary rents currently stand at EUR 24.50 developer: Edil-Al shpk m2/month in the CBD and EUR 18.00 m2/month SPACE UNDER BUDAPEST 37,230 m2 in the periphery, with secondary rates at CONSTRUCTION: HUNGARY EUR 18.00 m2/month in the CBD and EUR 14.00 ROMANIA RENTAL RATES Class A: 24.50-18.00 ZAGREB m2/month in the periphery. (EUR/M2/MONTH): Class B: 18.00-14.00 CROATIA BUCHAREST Kastrati Group, Balfin Group, BELGRADEBELGRADE MAIN DEVELOPERS: SERBIA Edil Al shpk, Alb Star shpk OTHER MARKETS: Durres, Vlora MONTENEGRO SOFIA BULGARIA PODGORICA TIRANA LARGEST PROJECTS ALBANIA UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECT DEVELOPER Downtown One Project Kastrati Construction shpk Forever Green Tower AL & GI shpk MET Tirana Building MET Invest shpk Twin Towers, developer: TID shpk ABA Business Center, developer: Gener 2 shpk MARKET DATA Total office stock (m2) evolution Take-up (m2) in Tirana (2015-2021) and vacancy rate (%) in Tirana (2015-2021) Albania is going 180,000 20% 25,000 18% 16% 140,000 20,000 through its first green 11.1% 12% 12% 15,000 100,000 9.8% 9.3% 8.9% 8.8% 9% 8% 10,000 60,000 certification process 4% 5,000 20,000 0% 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2019 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 for LEED Gold for forecast forecast forecast forecast forecast forecast Total stock Vacancy rate * take-up calculated as difference between occupied stock in subsequent years Downtown 1 building.
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