An Approach to Assessing the Technical Feasibility and Market Potential of a New Automotive Device

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Reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope; present discus- sions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research profes- sionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. An Approach to Assessing the Technical Feasibility and Market Potential of a New Automotive Device RAND Zero Emission Fuel Saver Study Team Prepared for Save the World Air, Inc. The research described in this report was conducted under the auspices of the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program (EEED) within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data An approach to assessing the technical feasibility and market potential of a new automotive device / RAND Zero Emission Fuel Saver Study Team. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4162-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Automobiles—Pollution control devices—Testing. 2. Automobiles—Fuel systems—Testing. 3. Market surveys—United States. I. RAND Zero Emission Fuel Saver Study Team. TL214.P6A67 2007 629.25'28—dc22 2007015174 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report details the research and assistance that the RAND Corporation provided between 2002 and 2006 to Save the World Air (STWA). STWA has several patented products designed to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions from internal combustion vehicle engines. STWA approached RAND to assist the company in developing a plan for assessing the technical basis for one of its products, known as the Zero Emission Fuel Saver (ZEFS™), and to assist the company in understanding how to evaluate potential market opportunities for the product. STWA sought RAND’s assistance because of RAND’s reputation for independence and objectivity, as well as its emphasis on empirical analysis. STWA also looked to RAND for advice on how the technology might be applied, assuming its technical viability. RAND made recommendations to STWA on structuring laboratory assessments of its products, including independent testing and veriﬁcation of the theoretical concepts and the protocols for such testing. RAND also assisted STWA in assessing national markets for devices intended to reduce emissions in the United States and around the world. This report may be of interest to individuals and organizations in the private and public sectors who seek an understanding of the challenges in bringing this kind of device to market. The RAND Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program (EEED) within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE). The mission of ISE is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. The EEED research portfolio addresses environmental quality and regulation, energy resources and systems, water resources and systems, climate, natural hazards and disasters, and economic development—both domestically and internationally. EEED research is conducted for govern- ment, foundations, and the private sector. Information about the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/environ). Inquiries about this and other EEED proj- ects should be sent to the following address: iii iv An Approach to Assessing the Technical Feasibility and Market Potential of a New Automotive Device Michael Toman, Director Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program, ISE RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 703-413-1100, x5189 [email protected] Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Tables ............................................................................................................ ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Background ....................................................................................................... 1 Organization of This Report.................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Understanding the Scientiﬁc Basis of the ZEFS .......................................................... 3 Literature Review ................................................................................................ 3 New Research .................................................................................................... 4 Investigations of Crude Oil................................................................................... 4 Investigations of Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Oil............................................................. 5 Fuel Viscosity and Combustion in Theory.................................................................... 7 Fuel Viscosity and Combustion in Practice................................................................... 7 CHAPTER THREE Results of Vehicle Tests ........................................................................................ 9 Overview .......................................................................................................... 9 Testing Protocols ................................................................................................. 9 Basic Protocol .................................................................................................10 Expanded Protocol for Automobile Testing ...............................................................11 Analysis...........................................................................................................12 Test Results ......................................................................................................12 Automobile Tests in California..............................................................................13 Motorcycle Tests in Asia .....................................................................................14 v vi An Approach to Assessing the Technical Feasibility and Market Potential of a New Automotive Device CHAPTER FOUR Identifying Markets for the ZEFS Device.................................................................17 Overview .........................................................................................................17

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