Israel and Middle East News Update

Thursday, December 17

Headlines: ● Ashkenazi Set to Quit Blue & White, as Party Crumbles ● Bennett Rejects Liberman Bid for Front Against Netanyahu ● Gives Initial Approval to Legalization of Outposts ● to Complete Setting up Abu Dhabi Embassy in January ● US Refuses to Share Intel with Qatar Over Support for Iran ● Sudan Revokes Citizenship of Former Hamas Leader ● Saudis Pushing for Gulf Dispute Breakthrough at Summit ● Gantz: There is Room in Jerusalem for a Palestinian Capital

Commentary: ● Ma’ariv: “Red Avi’’ - By Orit Lavi-Nessiel

● : “Four Warning Signs en Route to Third Lockdown” - By Itamar Eichner

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts December 17, 2020 Times of Israel Ashkenazi Set to Quit Blue & White, as Party Crumbles Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi is about to bolt the Blue & White party in the highly likely scenario of elections being called by next week, according to a senior source in the party. As ’s party loses more and more ground in opinion polls. Gantz is reportedly still trying to reach a last-ditch compromise with Netanyahu regarding the budget and the future of the government. However, Likud is said to be demanding that Netanyahu be given another “exit point” enabling him to dissolve the government without having to hand over the premiership to Gantz, and also that Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn be fired from his post due to his support for judicial activism. Gantz said that he would oppose the latter demand. See also ‘‘New Elections Seen as a Virtual Certainty as Knesset Dispersal Deadline Looms’’ (Times of Israel)

Ynet News Bennett Rejects Liberman Bid for Front Against Netanyahu The head of the right-wing Yamina party Naftali Bennett rejected a call by Yisrael Beytenu chair Avigdor Liberman to unite in order to prevent Prime Minister Netanyahu from forming the next government, saying they should rather focus their efforts on helping Israel's 800,000 unemployed. The most pressing issue was to help the multitudes of people left without a job and "not four politicians," Bennett said as he rebuffed Liberman's overture. "The plan is already in place and you [Liberman] are invited to help. The rest is of no interest," Bennett said. In a letter to Bennett, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid and former Likud MK Gideon Sa'ar, who last week announced his was forming his own party, Liberman wrote: "The creation of a liberal, Zionist coalition is the order of the day, especially in light of the growing cooperation between Netanyahu and representatives of the Islamic movement." See also ‘‘Paradox: Netanyahu Now Protected by Israeli Arab Legislator’’ (Al-Monitor)

Jerusalem Post Knesset Gives Initial Approval to Legalization of Outposts In a move that could expand Israel's footprint in Area C of the West Bank, the Knesset gave an initial 60-40 approval to legislation that would legalize some 65 West Bank outposts. Neither Prime Minister Netanyahu or Alternate Prime Minster Gantz were present for the vote, according to the Knesset Land of Israel Caucus that submitted the private members bill. Joint List Party head MK Aymen Odeh charged that the legislation was a form of de facto annexation. During the debate warning by Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn that the legislation was likely unconstitutional under Israeli law and problematic in the sphere of international law went unheeded. Despite the Right's initial victory, it’s unclear if there is enough time to complete the legislative process prior to the Knesset's expected dispersal next week. See also ‘‘In Struggles for West Sahara and West Bank, Thorny Parallels May Loom for Israel’’ (Times of Israel) 2 I24 News Israel to Complete Setting up Abu Dhabi Embassy in January As the increasingly warm peace between Israel and the UAE continues to develop following the ratification of the normalization agreement, Israel's Foreign Ministry confirmed it would establish its embassy in Abu Dhabi by the first week of January 2021. Media reports from Israel, quoting diplomatic sources, said that the embassy “may even be as large as the missions in Washington, London and Moscow.” An Israeli ministerial delegation was in Abu Dhabi last week scouting out potential locations for the diplomatic mission. The delegation also visited Manama in Bahrain, which is the second Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nation to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Immediately after the signing of the normalization deal, it was revealed that Israel had operated a quasi-embassy in Bahrain for more than a decade, but with the development of official relations, the need for artifice has gone. Israel handed the UAE a letter on September 25 expressing hope to open an embassy in Abu Dhabi soon. See also ‘‘Gulf Normalization Isn’t About Fearing Iran, It’s About Embracing Israel’’ (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post US Refuses to Share Intel with Qatar Over Support for Iran The British MP Ian Paisley delivered a presentation during a House of Commons debate, saying the American government does not share military intelligence with Qatar because Qatar is aligned with Iran. He added that “Today, I have left in the House of Commons Library a very important report by Cornerstone into the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which links some of the activities in the Gulf with Qatar and Iran, and with the Muslim Brotherhood.” Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, the largest military installation in the Middle East, hosts units of the US Air Force, the British Royal Air Force and a forward headquarters of US Central Command. The US government is currently seeking to mediate an end an economic and diplomatic blockaded imposed on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and the UAE due to Qatar’s alleged support of Iran’s regime and jihadi terrorist movements. See also ‘‘Second US Lawsuit Hits Qatar National Bank Over Terrorist Finances’’ (Al-Monitor)

I24 News Sudan Revokes Citizenship of Former Hamas Leader Sudan has revoked the citizenship of former Hamas leader Khaled Mashal and some 3,000 other foreign nationals, Arab media sources reported. The move comes after the US formally removed Sudan from a blacklist of countries supporting terrorism, less than two months after Sudan reportedly agreed to normalize relations with Israel. The Sudanese transitional authorities, in place since mid-2019 after a revolution that ousted longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir from power, welcomed this decision which should end nearly three decades of isolation and raise hopes of better economic conditions. The US imposed the sanctions in 1993 after accusing Omar al-Bashir of having relations with "terrorist organizations", in particular the Al-Qaeda network, whose leader Osama bin Laden sought refuge. Mashal, 64, retired as Hamas chairman in 2017 and has lived in exile in numerous Arab states including Jordan and Syria for fear of Israeli assassination. See also ‘‘Sudan Welcomes Us Move to Clear $1B in Arrears to World Bank’’ (Jerusalem Post)

3 Reuters Saudis Pushing for Gulf Dispute Breakthrough at Summit An annual Gulf Arab summit has been put off to January while parties locked in a rancorous row that led to a boycott of Qatar work towards announcing a tangible deal, though a final resolution is likely to take longer, informed sources said. The other nations involved were more circumspect when welcoming progress in mediation efforts by Kuwait and the US, which wants Gulf Arabs to be united against Iran. Four sources familiar with the matter said they expected an announcement to coincide with the summit, which is normally held in December and has not grouped Qatar’s emir together with leaders of the boycotting states since 2017. A Gulf source said a deal, to be finalized by ministers ahead of the government leaders’ summit, could result in a set of principles for negotiations or a more concrete move involving reopening airspace to Qatar as a show of good faith. The Saudis appear more keen than their allies, the diplomat said, and Doha was willing to hold out for a comprehensive deal, especially given that President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to take a firmer stance with Saudi Arabia.

Jerusalem Post Gantz: There is Room in Jerusalem for a Palestinian Capital "Jerusalem will remain undivided, but there is room for a Palestinian capital in it," Defense Minister Benny Gantz told London-based Arabic news outlet Asharq al-Awsat in an interview, Israeli media reported. He expressed his hope that peace in the Middle East could begin to be achieved by attempting to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Former mayor of Jerusalem and current Likud MK Nir Barkat immediately attacked Gantz, stating that, "Jerusalem is the capital of only one nation. It is the capital of the eternal Jewish people" and it is "the capital of the State of Israel." The international community and the Palestinians hold that east Jerusalem, including the Old City, is the future capital of a Palestinian state. Israel believes that a united Jerusalem should remain in its hands as the capital of the Jewish state. Gantz's words, however, are consistent with President Trump's peace plan, which allowed Israel to maintain sovereignty over territory in Jerusalem within the boundary of the security barrier. It placed areas of municipal Jerusalem outside the barrier, within the boundaries of a future Palestinian state. See also ‘‘New UN Mideast Envoy Knows Israeli–Palestinian Conflict From up Close’’ ( News)

4 Ma’ariv – December 17, 2020 Red Avi By Orit Lavi-Nessiel ● Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn appears to be the person whose fate will decide whether early elections are held or not. Netanyahu never wanted him, and would have preferred to see Chili Tropper installed as justice minister instead. As opposed to all of the other people whom Blue and White appointed, Nissenkorn has been an effective and active minister. He has operated independently and has advanced a clear agenda. As someone who rose through the ranks of the , Nissenkorn is adept at forming alliances and fighting battles. That said, it seems that nothing prepared him for his role as the bodyguard tasked with protecting the State of Israel’s law enforcement agencies. Nissenkorn was forced to devote most of his energy to repelling attacks by members of the coalition on the justice system. The battle that was waged by publicly-elected officials against the top tiers of the professional civil service was never as brazen and as fraught. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is fighting for his own legal survival, has acted to delegitimize the State Attorney’s Office and the judges, while brainwashing his supporters and planting in their minds such concepts as the “deep state” and the “State Attorney’s Office within the State Attorney’s Office.” ● It is precisely on account of that behavior that it is imperative that Blue and White conduct itself properly and not make Kobi Shabtai’s appointment as the next police commissioner contingent upon the appointment of Amit Eisman as the next state attorney—in the very same way that it has demanded a budget, the alternating premiership arrangement and the appointment of reasonable candidates as civil servants—in other words: keeping the coalition agreement. The current chaotic reality appears to betoken that none of that is going to happen regardless of whether Nissenkorn voluntarily vacates the Justice Ministry or is forced to do so. This marriage [between the Likud and Blue and White] isn’t going to last, and the divorce is going to be ugly. Polling at just six seats, Blue and White—or what’s left of it—is on its way out. ● Nissenkorn has read the map and he, like so many others, realizes that what Netanyahu wants fails to conform with what the public needs. The weaker Blue and White’s ability to withstand his pressure becomes, the harder the fight being waged by Nissenkorn becomes. This week the High Court of Justice rejected the petition that was filed by Minister Miri Regev and MK Osnat Mark of the Likud, after they boycotted the Judges Selection Committee meeting and then asked the court to nullify the committee’s decision on the grounds of their own absence. Nissenkorn is trying to make the most of the power that he wields until the last moment, and that has driven Netanyahu hopping mad. Netanyahu sees the supposedly gray and unassuming Histadrut apparatchik [Nissenkorn] as a red cape in the political arena. Netanyahu’s scheming hasn’t ended there. He has operated incessantly behind the backs of his most senior partners in Blue and White, as in the normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, and this week when he announced the appointment of the next Mossad director. Netanyahu doesn’t consider them worthy of his attention.

5 ● Nissenkorn is a different story, though. That is why he is demanding his head. Blue and White is a failed political endeavor; we might best call it Benny Gantz’s “sixth dimension.” His presence on the political playing field was barely felt—and never mind Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi. Now they’re trying to justify their decision to enter a Netanyahu government by citing their achievements: stopping the annexation plan (I’m not at all sure that Netanyahu ever really wanted to or could have implemented that plan); fighting for the rule of law; and preventing a fourth consecutive election. However, judging by the current political situation, it looks like their sacrifices were all made in vain. After all that, however, Gideon Saar’s decision to quit the Likud appears to have reshuffled the entire deck. ● Netanyahu and Gantz are now less eager to hold new elections. The question is how might they continue to live together under the same roof and whether they won’t decide to sacrifice Nissenkorn to buy a few more months until the next crisis. Even though nothing good is threatening Blue and White, to borrow an expression that Avigdor Liberman likes to use, Nissenkorn is now facing a very tough dilemma. If he resigns, he will be playing into Netanyahu’s hands; if he stays, he will effectively block any chance of the current government continuing to serve out its term and will foil any last chance of political stability. The third option is that Gantz will capitulate to Netanyahu and will act behind Nissenkorn’s back to oust him from the Justice Ministry. Nissenkorn, in this case, is merely a metaphor.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – December 17, 2020 Four Warning Signs en Route to Third Lockdown By Itamar Eichner ● The vaccines are almost here but unless there is a last-minute change in the infection rate, the State of Israel will reimpose several severe restrictions next week. According to the data that were provided to the ministers by the National Security Council pointing to a major rise in the infection rate, Israel is soon expected to reach the numbers that the security cabinet decided would mandate the imposing severe restrictions (2,500 people testing positive for COVID-19 daily). The restrictions are likely to include closing street- side stores, closing open-air markets, closing schools in red and orange localities (except for kindergarten through the fourth grade) and reducing public transportation by half. Just last Tuesday, 2,878 people tested positive—the highest number since October 12. There was also a rise in the percentage of positive tests, which now stands at 3.5% (up from an average of 2.89% in the previous week) out of a record number of tests: 83,308—the highest since the start of the pandemic. “It is unthinkable that the government should automatically approve shutting down commerce in Israel, causing hundreds of thousands to be unemployed and the collapse of tens of thousands of businesses,” Science and Technology Minister Izhar Shay told Yedioth Ahronoth yesterday. “With all due respect to the numbers, the coronavirus cabinet and the cabinet must discuss the issue of restrictions in light of the changing circumstances, first and foremost, vaccines.” ● One of the central problems of the new severe restrictions is that they will be nationwide and not pertain specifically to problematic localities. For example, according to National Security Council data, there are 1,046 green localities, as opposed to just 48 that are red. In Jerusalem, for example, there are about 20 red neighborhoods, and the number of people who tested positive yesterday in Jerusalem was 589, the highest in the last two months. The number of people with COVID-19 in Jerusalem stands at more than 3,000, of which 1,000 are just from the past week. In the last few weeks, the virus has run rampant in East Jerusalem’s Arab neighborhoods, while there are claims of “herd immunity” among Haredi communities. But just last week the pandemic spread to the other parts of the city, and yesterday, for the first time, the number of new Haredi cases was higher than in other sectors. ● The coronavirus cabinet ministers are therefore critical of the decision to put the entire country under lockdown and not adopt a localized approach and to increase fines and enforcement in red localities. Furthermore, in order to stamp out infection, the public has to be persuaded to receive the vaccine, but up until now, a public information campaign has only been mounted in Hebrew and has focused on the Jewish sector, even though the percentage of positive tests in Arab society is among the highest. According to National Security Council data, 8.2% of tests conducted in Arab society come back positive as opposed to 5.87% in the Haredi sector and 1.9% in the general population. Last Monday, the Health Ministry launched a designated website with answers to the main questions about the vaccine, along with a video clip.

7 ● There is no mention of vaccines or any relevant information in the Health Ministry’s Arabic language website. “As of tomorrow, we will be shooting videos in Arabic, Amharic, Russian and also for a Haredi doctor,” Health Ministry officials said yesterday. Despite the rise in infection and threats of a third lockdown, the chaos at Ben Gurion has continued apace. Everyday thousands of passengers land in Israel but are not tested for the coronavirus. This is outrageously irresponsible, and the prevailing assessment is that dozens of people infected with COVID-19 enter Israel every day from countries that are defined as being red. “According to the data, there is quite a lot of infection being brought from green countries, and arrivals aren’t even required to go into quarantine,” wrote Director of Public Health Services in the Health Ministry Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis in an internal memo. “That requires a change in approach.” ● One of the options that will be raised today by Health Ministry officials will be to define all of the world’s countries as being red, including the UAE. If this is done, everyone returning from overseas will be required to go into quarantine. But some Health Ministry officials say that this proposal is likely to encounter difficulties at this stage. Quarantine is not the only problem. The Dubai visa fiasco, which routinely causes hundreds of passengers to remain stuck at the check-in counters, is a source of chaos a lack of social distancing. “It was simply shocking. I hope that we weren’t infected,” said Idit Beinish, who waited for hours yesterday for a visa that never arrived, along with her three daughters. “We were promised a visa at the airport, but that didn’t happen, we were simply deceived.” Seventeen flights are scheduled to leave today for Dubai and Israel Airports Authority officials are afraid that the crowding at the counters will continue. Officials said that they were working in keeping with the instructions, but that the chaos surrounding the visas was very disruptive: passengers were refusing to leave the departure hall and airport officials tried to disperse the angry passengers, but to no avail. ● Business-owners are worried that malls and street-side stores may be forced to close once again. One of the main problems is that business-owners will have to put workers on unpaid leave once again, and some of them will certainly not be able to return to work later. “Who will pay me unemployment if I’m put-on unpaid leave again,” said Orna, who works in a shoe store, “I told my employer that I’m afraid to be put again on unpaid leave because if there’s another lockdown I’ll lose my rights with the National Insurance Institute. When I saw that things were good and that everything was open and that Ben Gurion Airport was bursting with passengers to Dubai, I felt confident and I informed my employer that I was returning to the store. Now I realize that I made a terrible mistake. I’m a single mother, who will pay me a salary?” Ofer Malls CEO Moshe Rosenblum said yesterday that he would not close the malls despite the impending severe restrictions. “They can’t force us to close,” he said. “We proved in the pilot that we met all the severe requirements and directives. ● Let them take the inspectors who watched us closely every day and send them to Ben Gurion Airport and to the open-air markets and enforce things properly there. If the coronavirus cabinet doesn’t uniformly impose severe restrictions, we will open the malls.” Considering the rise in the infection rate and the possibility that schools may be shut down in red and orange localities, parents and teaching staff are demanding a 8 return to the capsules format for kindergartens and the first and second grades ahead of the children’s anticipated return to school on Sunday after the Hanukkah holiday. “Kindergarten teachers in Israel carry the weight of the Israeli economy on their shoulders,” said the chairwoman of the kindergarten department in the Israel Teachers Union. “The kindergartens that were opened in a non-capsule format have 35 children in a space of 70 square meters at best with one teacher and one assistant. There is no way of maintaining distancing or complying with instructions. I call on the Health Ministry to come to its senses.”

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