Trends in Absolute Income Mobility in North America and Europe dynamicsofinequality.org DIAL Working Paper Series 04/2021 Robert Manduca, Maximilian Hell, Adrian Adermon, Jo Blanden, Espen Bratberg, Anne C. Gielen, Hans van Kippersluis, Keun Bok Lee, Stephen Machin, Martin D. Munk, Martin Nybom, Yuri Ostrovsky, Sumaiya Rahman, Outi Sirniö This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 0 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 724363 Trends in Absolute Income Mobility in North America and Europe Robert Manduca1, Maximilian Hell2, Adrian Adermon3, Jo Blanden4, Espen Bratberg5, Anne C. Gielen6, Hans van Kippersluis7, Keun Bok Lee8, Stephen Machin9, Martin D. Munk10, Martin Nybom11, Yuri Ostrovsky12, Sumaiya Rahman13, & Outi Sirniö14 Abstract We compute rates of absolute upward income mobility for the 1960-1987 birth cohorts in eight countries in North America and Europe. Rates and trends in absolute mobility varied dramatically across countries during this period: the US and Canada saw upward mobility rates near 50% for recent cohorts, while countries like Norway and Finland saw sustained rates above 70%. Decomposition analysis suggests that differences in the marginal income distributions, especially the amount of cross-cohort income inequality, were the primary driver of differing mobility rates across countries. We also demonstrate that absolute mobility rates can be accurately estimated without linked parent-child data. 1 Assistant Professor Robert Manduca, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan,
[email protected] 2 Dr. Maximilian Hell, Department of Sociology, Stanford University,
[email protected] 3 Dr. Adrian Adermon, Institute for Evaluation of Labor Market and Education Policy,
[email protected] 4 Dr.