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Ghana at a Glance: 2002-03

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Ghana at a Glance: 2002-03 COUNTRY REPORT Ghana Ghana at a glance: 2002-03 OVERVIEW The New Patriotic Party government will continue its economic reform programme, concentrating on improving fiscal and monetary discipline. It will also continue its campaign against corruption and investigate the excesses of previous administrations. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) opposition will be involved in a key internal struggle to determine the future shape of the party. Pro-democratisation and traditionalist factions will argue over the need to reform the party. The economy is forecast to grow at a rate of 4.3% in 2002 and 4.8% in 2003. Inflation will fall back steadily to average only 11% in 2003. The current-account deficit is forecast at 5.3% of GDP in 2002 and 4.9% of GDP in 2003. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Turmoil continues within the NDC, as modernising and traditionalist factions dispute the future direction of the party. The former minister of justice and attorney-general, Obed Asamoah, intends to stand as party chairman, which supporters of the former president, Jerry Rawlings, see as an attempt to usurp the traditional leader. In an effort to forestall the internal elections, the traditionalists have postponed the party congress, due to have been held in December 2001, until April 2002. Economic policy outlook • A new monetary policy framework is starting to emerge, with the appointment of a new governor of the Bank of Ghana and the passing of the Bank of Ghana Bill which gives him greater freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy. This should reinforce the downward trend in inflation which started in 2001. Economic forecast • Ghana’s population was 18.8m in 2000, according to census data published by the Ghana Statistical Service—a 53% increase on 1984. January 2002 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2002 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1350-7052 Symbols in tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Ghana 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2002-03 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 15 Economic policy 20 The domestic economy 20 Economic trends 21 Agriculture 22 Industry and mining 25 Infrastructure 26 Financial and other services 28 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 11 Forecast summary 15 Revenue collection, Jan-Jun 2001 16 Overall fiscal outturn, Jan-Jun 2001 16 Medium-term expenditure framework, 2001 25 Electricity supply and consumption 28 Balance of payments, Jan-Jun 2001 29 Reserves List of figures 12 Gross domestic product 12 Real exchange rates 20 Population 29 External debt, 2000 EIU Country Report January 2002 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2002 Ghana 3 Summary January 2002 Outlook for 2002-03 The New Patriotic Party government will continue its economic reform programme, concentrating on improving fiscal and monetary discipline. It will also continue to negotiate with the opposition on the scope of the National Reconciliation Bill which is to investigate the excesses of previous administrations, enabling victims to receive a fair hearing and compensation. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) opposition will be involved in an internal struggle which will determine the future shape of the party. Pro- democratisation and traditionalist factions will argue over the need to reform the party. The economy is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2002 and 4.8% in 2003. Inflation will fall back steadily to average only 11% in 2003. The current- account deficit is forecast at 5.3% of GDP in 2002 and 4.9% of GDP in 2003. The political scene The former deputy finance minister, Victor Selormey, has been sentenced to eight years in prison for his part in a corruption scandal. Corruption will remain high on the political agenda. The government has passed a National Reconciliation Bill, seeking to establish a South African-style truth and reconciliation commission. The NDC’s national congress has been postponed because of a dispute between modernisers and traditionalists within the party; it will now be held in April 2002. The Nkrumahist Convention People’s Party, the People’s National Convention, and the National Reform Party have agreed to merge, creating a single powerful Nkrumahist party. Economic policy The government has published its mid-year review of the budget. The review shows that the government had some success in controlling expenditure, raising revenue and reducing domestic borrowing. Paul Acquah, a former deputy director of the IMF’s Africa Department, has been appointed governor of the Bank of Ghana, and the bank has been given greater independence over the conduct of monetary policy. The domestic economy Ghana’s population was 18.8m in 2000, according to census data released by the Ghana Statistical Service. There may be delays in cocoa shipments owing to the low global price. The government’s golden share in Ashanti Goldfields is again being questioned. The stockmarket held up reasonably well in 2001. The ghana index-linked bond has been well received by the financial markets. Foreign trade and payments The balance-of-payments deficit in the first half of 2001 was worse than expected. The Paris Club has signed an agreement with Ghana to reschedule public external debt. Editors: John Arthur (editor); David Cowan (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: January 18th 2002 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report January 2002 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2002 4 Ghana Political structure Official name Republic of Ghana Form of state Unitary republic Legal system A new constitution, based on the US model, was approved by referendum in April 1992 National legislature Parliament; 200 members elected by universal suffrage every four years National elections December 2000 (presidential and parliamentary); next elections due December 2004 Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two four-year terms; John Agyekum Kufuor was sworn in on January 7th 2001 for his first term National government Cabinet, appointed by the president in January 2001 Main political parties New Patriotic Party (NPP), the ruling party; National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party; other parties include the People’s National Convention (PNC), the Convention People’s Party (CPP), United Ghana Movement (UGM) and National Reform Party (NRP) President John Agyekum Kufuor Vice-president Aliu Mahama Key ministers Attorney-general & justice Nana Akufo Addo Communications & technology Felix Owusu Adjapong Defence Kwame Addo Kufuor Economic planning & regional integration Paa Kwesi Nduom Education Christopher Ameyaw Akumfi Energy Albert Kan-Dapaah Environment, science & technology Dominic Fobih Finance Yaw Osafo-Maafo Food & agriculture Courage Quarshigah Foreign affairs Hackman Owusu Agyeman Health Richard W Anane Information and presidential affairs Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey Interior Malik Yakubu Alhassan Lands & forestry Kasim Kasanga Local government Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu Manpower development & employment Cecilia Bannerman Mines Kwado Adjei Darko Parliamentary affairs Pap Owusu-Ankomah Private sector development Kwamena Bartels Roads & transport K Adjei-Darko Tourism
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