Winter Warning Consolidation Product Description Document

Part I - Mission Connection a. Product/Service Description – The National Weather Service (NWS) is seeking feedback on options for a possible consolidation of Winter precipitation warning products. Two options will be proposed:

1. The current “Blizzard Warning,” “Ice Storm Warning,” and “Winter Storm Warning” products would be consolidated into one “Winter Storm Warning” product with the specific hazard (ice, snow, blizzard) called out in the “What” bullet of the product text. 2. The current “Blizzard Warning,” “Ice Storm Warning,” and “Winter Storm Warning” would be consolidated into one Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) and renamed as different ‘types’ of Winter Storm Warnings:

1. “Winter Storm Warning: (for) Accumulating Snow” 2. “Winter Storm Warning: (for) Mixed Precipitation” 3. “Winter Storm Warning: (for) Significant Icing” 4. “Winter Storm Warning: (for) Blizzard Conditions”

Note: For the second option, the presentation of the headlines in operation could be flexible - a colon can be used after "Winter Storm Warning" OR it could be read as "Winter Storm Warning for Blizzard Conditions".

The proposed changes are summarized via the graphics below.

b. Product Type – Operational c. Purpose - Social science research indicates users of NWS products can become confused by the number of hazard messages NWS issues before and during active weather. Especially while dangerous weather is unfolding, it is critical that NWS hazard messages are simple, short and direct. d. Audience - The target audiences for these products are customers and partners 1

such as emergency managers, state and local officials including school superintendents, Departments of Transportation (DOTs), media and the general public. These proposed changes affect all Weather Forecast Offices. e. Presentation Format – These are text-based products which appear on the Watch, Warning, and Advisory page on weather.gov and are transmitted via all other standard dissemination methods. Some of these products are sent via NOAA Weather Radio and the Emergency Alert System. f. Feedback Method – Feedback will be gathered through representatives from federal, state, county, and local government agencies and broadcast media during scheduled customer review meetings and via a web-based survey linked to the product page:

Link here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/winterwarning

Customer comments or questions may be addressed to:

Michelle Hawkins, Chief, Severe, Fire, Public and Winter Weather Services Branch NWS Headquarters E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 301-427-9346

Part II – Technical Description

a. Format and Science Basis – The format is described in Part I under “Presentation Format.” Forecasters will use available tools to determine the risk of these hazards occurring in their areas and issue products according to criteria and expected impacts.

b. Availability – These products will be available at all times and issued when criteria are met.

Proposed Examples for Consolidation of Winter Warning Products:

1. Current Blizzard Warning

MAZ018-019-021>023-140000- /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180314T0000Z/ Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA- Barnstable MA-Dukes MA- Including the cities of Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, and Vineyard Haven 410 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Plymouth County, Barnstable and Dukes Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous. 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates at times. The afternoon commute will be impacted. Wet snow and strong winds will result in power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.

Consolidation Option 1 for Blizzard Warning

Proposed Winter Storm Warning

MAZ018-019-021>023-140000- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180314T0000Z/ Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA- Barnstable MA-Dukes MA- Including the cities of Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, and Vineyard Haven 410 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... 3

* WHERE...Plymouth County, Barnstable and Dukes Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous. The afternoon commute will be impacted. Wet snow and strong winds will result in power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.

Consolidation Option 2 for Blizzard Warning

Proposed Winter Storm Warning: (for) Blizzard Conditions

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHERE...Plymouth County, Barnstable and Dukes Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous. The afternoon commute will be impacted. Wet snow and strong winds will result in power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely 4 dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.

2. Current Ice Storm Warning

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-190245- /O.UPG.KMKX.WS.A.0002.180219T2100Z-180221T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.IS.W.0001.180219T2100Z-180221T0000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, and Mayville 1245 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

...ICe STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel will be dangerous and nearly impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Ice Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice accumulation will make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Snapped power lines and falling tree branches are also possible. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Consolidation Option 1 for Ice Storm Warning

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058-190245- /O.UPG.KMKX.WS.A.0002.180219T2100Z-180221T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.W.0001.180219T2100Z-180221T0000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, and Mayville 5

1245 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel will be dangerous and nearly impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Snapped power lines and falling tree branches are also possible. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Consolidation Option 2 for Ice Storm Warning

Proposed Winter Storm Warning: (for) Significant Icing

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel will be dangerous and nearly impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 6