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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Poor at Wishard Hospital, to Unfunded Pensions, Could Have Inc Thursday, Oct. 23, 2003 Volume 10, Number 12 Page 1 of 9 he Peterson weathers T his ‘perfect storm’ Howey But Lloyd, Richard may be in trouble By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Indianapolis Deputy Mayor Mike O’Connor seemed ecstatic late last week. “Ya know what? We’ve weathered the Political perfect storm!” he said. Indeed, Mayor Bart Peterson appears to have done just that. The collision of Colts, skyrocketing property tax Report assessments, sneaky tax increases, costly sewer repairs and mounting costs ranging from public safety, to care for the The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink poor at Wishard Hospital, to unfunded pensions, could have Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is spelled an October riot and doom to a mayor. an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana. But today, the question isn’t whether Peterson will win, but by how much. Many are anticipating at least a 60 Brian A. Howey, publisher percent win, which would probably pull in the first Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer Democratic City-County Council in Unigov history. Jack E. Howey, editor While Mayor Peterson seems to have escaped his storm, his counterparts in Evansville and Fort Wayne, The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 Republican Mayors Russell Lloyd Jr. and Democrat Graham Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 Richard, who eked out narrow victories in 1999, don’t [email protected] appear to be as fortunate. Many observers from both political www.howeypolitics.com parties see these two incumbents as extremely vulnerable. As the HPR Horse Race explains (See pages 4-5), Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. Democrats appear to have a good chance at picking up may- oralities in Evansville, Mishawaka, Lafayette and New Subscriptions: $350 annually via e-mail; Albany. Republicans appear to be on the inside track to pick $550 annually including the HPR Daily up city halls in Fort Wayne, Anderson, Valparaiso, Crown Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. Point, and Marion. © 2003, The Howey Political Report. All rights And for the sheer spectacle of it, the most interesting reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or race may be taking place in Noblesville where Mayor reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- Dennis Redick, facing a domestic abuse trial in December, is tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without challenged by three opponents. He’d be more vulnerable if consent of the publisher. there was only one. “People say, ‘Graham, you could lose the Ticker: Bren Simon quits DNC p. 2 election over this,’ but I made a promise to my Horse Race ‘03: Mayoral race status p. 4 wife and family to keep them separate from 9th CD: Sodrel aiming at Rep. Hill p. 6 this...” - Fort Wayne Mayor Graham Richard, on Columnist: Robin Winston on what why he won’t release his tax returns, to the it will take to win governor p. 8 Fort Wayne Journal Gazette Horse Race ‘04: Some questions p. 9 Thursday, Oct. 23, 2003 Page 2 of 9 A key question is, should these GOP ticket with him, the greater chances forecasts come true, what impact would are for a revolt among the younger ranks such realignment have in 2004 and of the Marion County Republican Party. beyond. For that, the most interesting race They will cite the lack of a marquee chal- comes in the Hoosier capital, Indianapolis. lenger, Chairman John Keeler’s deal not to criticize Mayor Peterson, and a lack of BREN SIMON RESIGNS; Indianapolis party resources as the final seizing up of REPLACED BY PHOEBE Mayor Bart Peterson liked to what was once the bulwark for Indiana CRANE: Not only has she Republicans. left the Joe Andrew cam- explain in 1999 that “dynasties don’t go While GOP strategists see that bul- paign, Bren Simon has also quietly.” They screech, scream and make resigned from the ugly noises. We saw that during the recent wark transferred to the doughnut counties Democratic National battle over the ballot, where Republicans around Indianapolis, the fact is that the Committee. Democratic tried to detach at-large council seats from capital city can still provide a significant sources said that when Peterson’s coattails. amount of Republican votes in a 2004 Simon resigned, prior to Democrats now believe they got the gubernatorial race, and holding the leaving the Andrew ticket, better part of the compromise ballot. Polls mayor’s office might better position the her reason was she needed show Peterson with anywhere from a 25 party for the coming fundraising wars. more time for the campaign. to 30 point lead over the hapless So a post-election house cleaning in Replacing her is Phoebe Indianapolis might be beneficial to Mitch Crane of Whitestown. In a Republican challenger, Greg Jordan. Daniels. letter signed by Sen. Evan Despite the array of “perfect storm” issues Bayh and Gov. Joe Kernan and plenty of voter anger over property to the DNC they wrote, taxes, Jordan has not been able to make Fort Wayne “Phoebe and her husband, his case via TV ads. He was neutered on While Mayor Richard was pointing Steve, have been steadfast the property tax issue because his name to his 60 percent approval rating in supporters not only of the appeared on the property tax bills (as September, here are some troubling facts State Party but, also of the county treasurer) and he comes from the for Democrats. A June poll had Buskirk National Party. Every time same party as the guy who wrote the tax up by 9 points. A WTPA-TV poll last either of us has called for help and assistance, reforms, Senate Finance Chairman Larry week had Richard with a 45-35 point lead. Phoebe Crane has answ- Borst. Jordan couldn’t take full advantage We’re suspicious of that 18-point ered the call. We are confi- of the property tax increases because swing. The WTPA poll was conducted dent of her ability to repre- Borst’s son, Phil, the council president, with only 76 percent of the participants as sent the values and ideals signed off. registered voters, and not even likely. of Hoosier Democrats on But what was really amazing was Richard won by fewer than 100 the National Committee. that during an interview with Jordan in votes in 1999 because he enjoyed a 27 June, he was unable to provide a critical percent Republican crossover, in part due MAGGIE KERNAN STUMPS review of the 1999 Peterson Plan. It was to the animosity between Buskirk and for- FOR RICHARD: Indiana's as if the Jordan campaign hadn’t even mer Sheriff Joe Squadrito. We don’t see new first lady, Maggie Kernan, was in Fort Wayne thought of opposition research. that happening again. on Wednesday to offer her Even more amazing is how Marion We also don’t see a profound issue support to Mayor Graham County and Indiana Republicans essential- dramatically alteriing this race. Of the Richard's re-election cam- ly ceded this race before it even began. issues that have surfaced in recent weeks, paign (Fort Wayne Journal Ask a Republican what a mayoral race none can be considered helpful for M.ayor Gazette). The low-key event would be like between, say, Sen. Murray Richard. He has refused to release his tax for reporters was at the Clark or Teresa Lubbers and Peterson, and returns in light of the FSSA investigation Foellinger-Freimann many would say “close.” With this county that has ties to a company Richard started, Botanical Conservatory, about a 50/50 split between Republicans Sigma Six. While linking Richard to that where Kernan wore a and Democrats, the real story here is how scandal appears to be a real stretch at this "Graham Richard for Mayor" button and carried a cam- the race was written off. point, the fact that he has decided not to The bigger the Jordan debacle on remove all doubt can’t be helpful. Richard Continued on page 3 Nov. 4, particularly if he pulls down the told the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 23, 2003 HPR price changes for first time in a decade Effective Nov. 1, a subscription to The Howey Political Report will be increased to $350 from the current $250. It is the first rate increase since the HPR was founded in 1994. The rate for the HPR Daily Wire will remain $200. The premium package rate (HPR and the HPR Daily Wire) will be $550. “We've held the line as long as we could,” Publisher Brian A. Howey said. “We have provided our subscribers with paign T-shirt. Kernan complete and accurate political coverage for almost 10 years, and have become a sig- became first lady last month nificant asset for the players and spectators in Indiana's political scene. But our costs when Indiana Gov. Frank have risen, particularly on health insurance, just as they have risen for every other busi- O'Bannon died and then-Lt. ness.” Gov. Joe Kernan took O'Bannon's place. Kernan and Richard are both HPR urges respect for copyright Democrats. "Joe's and my Poynter Institute columnist Eric Sinrod reports, “Companies and individuals support is fully behind him," need to be careful about not distributing copyrighted works, such as newsletters, with- Maggie Kernan said of out authorization. To bring this point home, as reported by the Washington Post, a fed- Richard. "He's got a great eral jury in Baltimore just rendered a multi-million dollar verdict against financial ser- vision for Fort Wayne." vices company Legg Mason for distributing unauthorized copies of daily stock market Kernan said Richard has protected the city from the e-mail commentary Lowry's Market Trend Analysis, published by Lowry's Reports, Inc.
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