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Africa Confidential

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Africa Confidential 8 January 1999 Vol 40 No 1 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL EMERGING MAPS AFRICA 2 Map for 1999 Africa scrambles for Africa The conflict in Central Africa epitomises the nationalism, fluidity In the wars engulfing Central Africa, soldiers and business people and, often, conflict, which marks are redrawing Africa's state system at terrible human cost this New Year's map. Uncertainty reigns in the north-east, in the two At the heart of Africa, the Congo-Kinshasa war has dragged more than a dozen states into its vortex Congos and, as we go to press, in and dealt a powerful blow to the tottering state system established on the continent over the past 40 a Freetown that is under attack. years. Historians with a taste for symmetry suggest that Africa’s post-colonial state system may In Algeria, a new candidate is prove to have begun and finished with crises in the Congo. The differences at each end of the process emerging as the army's and FLN's presidential favourite. In Nigeria, are striking. Gen. Obasanjo's comeback means In the 1960s’ Congo crisis, Western capitalist nations vied with the Soviet Union and China for he's still the favourite for February's influence, while the United Nations tried vainly to hold the ring. In the 1990s’ Congo crisis, the scheduled presidential election - military, diplomatic and commercial running is dominated by Africans, while foreigners take, at though a month is a long time in most, a backseat role in mediation and business; UN officials readily concede that their leverage with politics. South Africa also expects a new both sides in Congo is ‘strictly limited’. In Congo 1960, the state system’s roadmap seemed pretty President, Thabo Mbeki, when clear: Africa was going to have a grid of some 50 independent states recognised and, to varying Nelson Mandela 'semi-retires' after degrees, buttressed, by the world’s great powers. In Congo 1999, only the bluffest politicians claim the mid-year general elections. to know where the crisis is leading. Both warring sides agree that the status quo cannot hold. Somalia's leadership remains Central to making sense of Congo is the health of Africa’s nation-states. The unmaking of Congo uncertain and multiple but some progress towards reconciliation points to several trends reshaping Africa and its component states: the privatisation of diplomacy and new structures is taking place. alongside the growth of informal business networks; the irrelevance of the Organisation of African Sudan remains isolated and Unity’s strictures on interfering in the affairs of sovereign states and the inviolability of colonial war-torn. Opposition divisions help borders; the primacy of personal (often criminal) enrichment over nation-state strategy; the the government but don't win it reorientation of Africa from Europe and North America towards Asia and the Middle East (key support. financiers and arms suppliers in the Congo war); and the dashing of Africa’s democratic aspirations, which had flowered again at the start of the 1990s. NAMIBIA 6 Awkward marriage, awkward divorce Out on a limb Three years ago, Africa Confidential wrote that ‘the awkward marriage of the nation in the sense Secessionist sentiment is growing of an ethnic coalition and the state as the principal source of political authority is coming under in the small but strategic strip of pressure from above and below’. Those pressures have intensified yet imply not a generalised land called Caprivi. It's still on a collapse of Africa’s nation-states and the end of its borders, but rather a massive restructuring of the very small scale but has already continent’s international system, which will strengthen some states and maybe obliterate others. produced a stream of refugees into neighbouring Botswana. And it is The redrawing of the state system from above is gaining momentum along two routes. Firstly,there worrying the government in is the agglomeration of states and economic systems into regional blocs where there is some pooling Windhoek, where President of political and economic sovereignty. The pace of these (initially economic) unions varies across Nujoma seems set for yet another the continent. Among the five member states of the Southern African Customs Union, there is a high term in power. degree of economic convergence and mutual commercial interest. After the face-off with Zimbabwe in the Southern African Development Community over the Congo war, South African diplomats POINTERS 8 now expect SACU to set the pace for economic integration, while SADC struggles with its regional rivalries. For a time, SACU and SADC may compete within the region but South Africa’s economic Sudan, Ghana, weight - more than 75 per cent of gross domestic product in the region - will tilt the balance towards Eritrea/Ethiopia and SACU. Most importantly, all states in the region back transnational economic unions of some kind: Angola and Zimbabwe’s oil and mineral-fired link-up with Congo-K, or Pretoria’s more conventional Tunisia and formalised trade and customs union with its neighbours. In East Africa, the regional imperative holds among the three states of the East African Doctor on trial and security chief Community - Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda - despite their domestic and foreign policy differences. investigated; a President speaks Kenya, with the strongest economy, stands to benefit most, and its businessmen have been to the nation despite his malaria; energetically buying into the state companies sold off by Uganda and Tanzania, which welcome warring neighbours buy planes foreign capital, whatever its source. It might also suit President Daniel arap Moi that some of from the same place; and some of the elite are convicted of drug Kenya’s wealthy Kikuyu entrepreneurs have switched their attention to neighbouring states and may trafficking. pose less of a challenge to the increasing grip on Kenya’s national economy of business people from Moi’s own Kalenjin group. 8 January 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 1 MAURITANIA MOROCCOTUNISIA ALGERIA TUNISIA LIBYA EGYPT Pop: 2.4m, GDP: $1,263m, Debt:MOROCCO $2,363m Pop: 27.5m, GDP: $25,382m, Debt: $21,767m Pop: 29.3m, GDP: $68,458m, Debt: $33,259m Pop: 9.3m, GDP: $15,367m, Debt: $9,886m Pop: 5.3m, GDP: $23,452m**, Debt: $7,000m* Pop: 60.3m, GDP: $61,660m, Debt: $31,407m Pres. Ould Taya stresses Undermined by securocrats such Foreign Minister Bouteflika Pres. Ben Ali and his ruling RCD Prompted by Mandela, Gaddafi Pres. Mubarak (70) will seek fourth ‘ouverture’ but little has changed as Driss Basri, opposition-led emerging as military and FLN will sweep early 1999 elections but may release the two Lockerbie 6-year term and is near certain to since November reshuffle government is drifting and failing favourite for presidential poll, will co-opt favoured opposition suspects in the hope of ending get it; with no clear successor, he toALGERIA implement economic and social maybe in April; military dominance politicians into National Assembly; sanctions but his 30th year in claims he’s winning a (brutal) war reforms; growing Islamist LIBYAin governmentEGYPT and elite faction- crackdown on Islamists will power will be plagued by Islamist with Islamists while insulated SENEGALWESTERN assertiveness and chance of fighting will continue but there continue insurgents, his ill-health and what economy has strengthened despite Pop: 8.8m, GDP:SAHARA $5,925m, Debt: $3,663m Sahara referendum in Dec. make may be attempt to co-opt regime- he calls “Arab treachery” wider emerging markets crisis Easy and relatively quiet victory in King Hassan nervous friendly Islamists into gov’t role May general elections gave Pres. BURKINA FASO Diouf room ahead of the Pop: 11.0m, GDP: $3,035m, Debt: $1,294m NIGER SUDAN presidential poll in Feb. 2000; he is WESTERN SAHARA MALI November’s rigged presidential Pop: 9.7m, GDP: $2,639m, Debt: $1,557m Pop: 27.9m, GDP: $10,107m†, Debt: $16,326m CAPEexpected to win butMAURITANIA retire early if Pop: na, GDP: na, Debt: na Pop: 10.3m, GDP: $2,784m, Debt: $3,020m poll, an opposition journalist’s After death of his friend Gen. August US attack has divided heated succession questions in Polisario believes mounting Factional intrigues beset ruling mysterious death and evidence Abacha in Nigeria, Pres. opposition but apparent VERDEthe PS are resolved international pressure should Adema coalition and opposition that the government is training Maïnassara looks isolated; growing strengthening of the ruling NIF MALI NIGER impel Morocco to accept CHADbut Pres. Konaré shows signs of and arming Sierra Leonean rebels economic and political problems regime is deceptive referendum this year; King Hassan recovery after a rough 18 months ERITREAhave further tarnished Pres. may herald more state repression THE GAMBIASENEGAL hopes for collapse of voter SUDAN Compaoré’s image ERITREA THEPop: GAMBIA 1.2m, GDP: $302m, Debt: $422m BURKINAregistration and UN withdrawal Regional focus on conflicts in DJIBOUTI CHAD Pop: 3.8m, GDP: $650m, Debt: $76m neighbouring Casamance and FASO Pop: 6.8m, GDP: $1,853m, Debt: $816m Border dispute with Ethiopia may GUINEA-BISSAU Guinea-Bissau divert attention from BENIN TUNISIA Postponement and probable produce more clashes but Pres. Pres. Jammeh’sGUINEA regime’s corruption cancellation of oil pipeline with Issayas will continue to shun OAU and authoritarianism but civil and GHANA NIGERIA MOROCCOCENTRAL Cameroon, and disastrous or US mediation; his fence- mending military opposition is growing TOGO ETHIOPIA intervention in Dem. Rep. of with Arab regimes (except Sudan) SIERRA LEONE COTE AFRICAN Congo dealt a double blow to Pres. will do little to help economy D'IVOIRE REP. Déby’s ‘civilianisation’ CAPE VERDELIBERIA CAMEROON ALGERIA Pop: 0.4m, GDP: $344m, Debt: $263m LIBYASOMALIA EGYPT ETHIOPIA After involvement in Angola peace WESTERN CENTRAL AFRICAN REP.
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