The of Jobs Understanding Growth in India

Sam Asher ()

WDR 2009 Plus 10

March 25, 2019 Overview

This project seeks to establish basic facts about the geography of in India and what these patterns imply about the constraints in the Geography of jobs What policies can help the economy generate jobs for the 8m people who join the labor force every year? Even in rural areas, 2/3 of income comes from non-farm sources, yet job growth has been stagnant Salaried employment is particularly rare, with ILO estimates putting it at less than 20% of jobs Part of broader agenda on the economic geography of development in India, with a particular focus on the role of cities A flexible data platform

The Socioeconomic High-res Rural-Urban Geographic panel for India (SHRUG) High resolution socioeconomic aggregation of and administrative data 600,000 villages and 5,000 towns from 1990 to the present, neighborhood-level disaggregation where possible Version 1.0 release is imminent, see Asher and Novosad (2019) Data

Ecoonomic Census: all non-farm firms (1990, 1998, 2005, 2013) Population Census: demographics, infrastructure, amenities (1991, 2001, 2011) Socioeconomic census microdata (2002, 2012) Satellite imagery: night lights, agricultural estimates GIS data: village/town locations, elevation, mineral deposits Electoral data, politician characteristics Economic performance is highly local

Decomposition of variance of employment growth in EC 2005-2013 reveals that most variation is below the district level States only account for 8% of variation in urban growth, and even districts only 24% Put differently: 3/4 of variation in employment growth is across locations within districts Similar for rural areas, and other measures such as poverty rates Yet we also find evidence that state policies are potentially important drivers of job opportunities across India Big changes in employment at state borders: BIMARU

(a) Employment / capita (adults) (b) Employment growth (2005-2013)

.3 1

.25

.5 Employment / capita (adults) Employment growth (2005−2013) .2

0 −100 −50 0 50 100 −100 −50 0 50 100 Distance to BIMARU border Distance to BIMARU border Employment growth is much higher in dense (urban) areas

But population growth gradient much less steep, potential evidence of frictions in labor mobility

(a) Employment growth (b) Population growth

.5 .4

.2

0 Pop growth 2001−2011 (log) Emp growth 2005−2013 (log)

−.2 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Density (pop / sq km) Density (pop / sq km) Ongoing and future projects

Understanding (the lack of) growth in rural areas Rural roads Agricultural productivity and structural transformation Administrative remoteness Cities and opportunity Spillovers to rural areas Intergenerational mobility Segregation and economic outcomes Explaining (constraints on) urban growth FSI, Delhi metro as natural experiment Frictions in labor mobility: cost of living, disamenities, non-trasportability of public services Temporary migration – seeking data and funding!