THE ’S MILLER CENTER SPRING 2021

WHAT’S NEXT FOR AMERICA? Page 6 WHY I GIVE

WHY SUPPORT THE MILLER CENTER? When I worked at the in I’m not only a Wahoo but a government aff airs Washington, D.C., there was a regular Friday major, so the Miller Center’s focus falls exactly lunch where experts would come in to discuss in my area of interest. important issues of the day. Miller Center events make me nostalgic for that. I never had heard of the Center until I watched HOW HAS THE PANDEMIC AFFECTED WHAT YOU Statecraft: Th e Bush 41 Team on PBS. I was CHOOSE TO WATCH? wowed by that documentary and the story it told about the George H. W. Bush administration. Last year turned me into a 24/7 learner. I’ve participated in a lot of webinars—seen the I didn’t fully appreciate the scholarship and good, the bad, the ugly—and the Miller resources that went into the production until a Center is the gold standard. few weeks later, when a former colleague sent me an email with information about an event that Th ese programs have been not just timely but was to be hosted by the Miller Center. I attended a way to sustain me through the captivity. and signed up to receive notifi cations about Th ey really were an invaluable opportunity upcoming programming. Now I know about to hear civil discourse about critical issues. the two or three Miller Center events each week. We should all be making sure the Miller WHAT ASPECT IS MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU? Center has the funds to carry out that mission. DIANE HODGES IORIO Th e events. I feel like I’m sitting across from Bill UVA Class of 1980, College of Arts & Sciences [Antholis, director of the Miller Center]. It feels like a conversation designed for me.

IN PURSUIT OF RACIAL EQUITY THE MILLER CENTER FOCUSES ON ISSUES AFFECTING BLACK AMERICANS

America has struggled with racial inequities since our founding. justice reform, and the rise of white nationalist groups—all through It is part of our history. the lens of history and public policy.

With a dramatic rise in activism in this space, the Miller Center Here are a few highlights from recent events and curated online has been instrumental in facilitating critical national conversations, exhibits at millercenter.org: convening experts to explore such topics as race relations, criminal

“Each successive president, from on, tried to suppress “President Johnson recognized that poverty was the root cause of crime. those people who were pushing for racial equality. . . . That’s the history So as part of the effort to address historical inequality and discrimination, that jangles against our perception of what American politics are all about— he simultaneously launches a war on crime. . . . Crime becomes the the idea that presidents are leaders on race. But, in fact, the long history essential issue that explains urban inequality, urban poverty. Urban indicates something different.” programs increasingly become crime-control programs.” Russell Riley, Miller Center professor; Elizabeth Hinton, professor; “Presidential leadership and race” event Race and the Crisis of Justice documentary

“Since the great migration of the 1920s, constituted a signifi cant voting bloc. And so the fi rst president to actually recognize that and seek out the African American vote was Harry Truman. For the fi rst time, the leader of a major American political party backed the civil rights agenda. . . . Truman made that calculation and won narrowly in 1948.” Kevin Gaines, Miller Center faculty senior fellow; “Presidential leadership and race” event

Russell Riley Kevin Gaines Elizabeth Hinton Find more related content at millr.cr/racial-equity

2 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 A LETTER FROM THE DIRECTOR By BILL ANTHOLIS Director & CEO, Miller Center

President came into the amid simultaneous epic Responding in kind, George W. Bush crises: an insurrection at the Capitol, ongoing impeachment proceedings, and his team attempted to reach across the Covid-19 pandemic, an economic coma, a nationwide reckoning on party lines, working with liberal lion racial justice. on education reform and appointing Democrat No newly elected or re-elected president has faced so many crises at once. to his cabinet.

In a recent study, David Marchick, director of the Center for Presidential Economic uncertainty is fueled when political rivals fail to cooperate. In Transition, and I examined 10 previous crises that presidents have had to 2008–09, the outgoing Bush team and incoming Obama administration manage during a transition. Five were political crises, where the victor of worked closely to address the recession. In contrast, FDR and Herbert the election faced questions about the legitimacy of the outcome. Five were Hoover had a hostile transition, deepening the crisis and delaying recovery. economic crises since 1900, where Americans’ livelihoods were at risk. Finally, fl exibility and pragmatism are as important as fast, bold action. Political crises are almost as old as the republic itself. In 1800-01 and Charging at the problem may be critical. So is building support around a 1824–25, Electoral College indecision threw the election to the House vision for national unity. of Representatives. In 1860–61, seven states seceded after Election Day, and another four after the inauguration. In 1876–77, disputed vote tallies Bridge-building, focusing on recovery, and being pragmatic are not easy. in four states led to a hasty Electoral Commission, which determined Given the nation’s deep polarization, any suggestion of bipartisanship can the winner. In 2000–01, controversial vote-counting in Florida led to six sound naïve. weeks of uncertainty, ultimately fi nding resolution in the Supreme Court. Still, there are glimmers of hope. Many Republicans now have Economic crises have also occurred with frightful regularity since 1900. Two acknowledged President Biden’s victory and have embraced his legitimacy. were especially severe. In 1932–33, the new president faced nearly 25 percent Biden focused his inaugural address on restoring our democracy and on unemployment and failing banks. In 2008–09, the greatest recession since calling for national unity. He also has assembled an experienced team, the Great Depression left millions without jobs and homes. prioritized addressing the pandemic and economic uncertainty, and IN PURSUIT OF demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle. RACIAL EQUITY Th e current moment combines an economic crisis, as deep as any our THE MILLER CENTER FOCUSES ON ISSUES AFFECTING BLACK AMERICANS country has seen, with a political crisis—especially President Trump’s Th e president’s challenge moving forward is to restore a sense of common eff orts to challenge the legitimacy of the November election and the purpose consistent with the best of American tradition and values. You shocking insurrection on January 6. can count on us to stay engaged, with constructive nonpartisan analysis and advice. History provides lessons for how to move forward.

First, in any crisis, presidential success depends on building a strong and experienced team that works well together. Political crises place a premium on reaching across the aisle to begin to heal the nation. Th is is always easier said than done. And yet, it still is worth doing. READ OUR FULL STUDY, “TRANSITIONS IN CRISIS,” AT After the divisive 2000 Florida recount, Vice President gave millr.cr/transitions-in-crisis an eloquent concession speech: “I say to President-elect Bush that what remains of partisan rancor must now be put aside, and may God bless his stewardship of this country.”

DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS PHOTOGRAPHY CONTRIBUTORS Howard Witt Biden White House Flickr Guian McKee Michael Nelson CREATIVE DIRECTOR Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff David Courtney PUBLISHED BY University of Virginia’s WRITERS National Archive Miller Center Natalie Russell Obama White House Flickr Thomas van der Voort Shutterstock GOVERNING COUNCIL FOUNDATION BOARD U.S. Department of Defense OF DIRECTORS COPY EDITOR Stephen M. Burns, chair U.S. Department of State Alice W. Handy, chair Gail Hyder Wiley Whitehouse.gov Wikimedia Commons

VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 3 NEW HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON ORAL HISTORY PROJECT IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS WILL PRESERVE THE HISTORY OF HER SERVICE TO THE NATION

Hillary Clinton ranks among the most “Secretary Clinton is one of the leading fi gures accomplished women in American political in American politics and diplomacy,” said history, having served as secretary of state, University of Virginia President Jim Ryan. a senator, and . “I am very pleased that she chose the Miller No other woman has secured the presidential Center to conduct her oral history and am nomination of a major party. Despite these confi dent that this work will inform and accomplishments, there has been little inspire for years to come.” scholarship about her career, especially as secretary of state. Th e Hillary Rodham Clinton Oral History Project will be directed by two scholars renowned for their study of government and diplomacy: Barbara Perry, the Gerald L. Baliles numbering in the hundreds, are conducted by Professor and director of Presidential Studies Miller Center oral historians alongside leading at the Miller Center; and Allida Black, editor experts in , history, law, business, emeritus of the Eleanor Roosevelt Papers, who and public policy. joins the Miller Center as a distinguished visiting scholar. “Capturing and preserving the thoughts and recollections of the most senior offi cials who worked with and for a historic fi gure such as Secretary Clinton allows scholars, students, and the general public to better understand Th e Miller Center’s Hillary Rodham Clinton the events of her time and their context,” Oral History Project, beginning work this year, said William Antholis, the Miller Center’s will address this gap. director and CEO.

Th e fi rst phase of the project will address Th e Hillary Rodham Clinton Oral History Clinton’s tenure at the State Department. Project is being funded by private donations. All Clinton will sit for a remarkable 20 interviews gifts are tax-deductible charitable contributions. and off er candid, detailed refl ections on her service as America’s chief diplomat. More than For nearly a half century, the Miller Center has TO GIVE A GIFT TO THE 70 other voices—supporters and critics, allies collected candid and confi dential recollections MILLER CENTER, VISIT and rivals, diplomats and generals—will also from every White House from be included. to . Th ese interviews, now millercenter.org/donate

THE PRESIDENCY: FACING CONSTITUTIONAL CROSSROADS NEW MILLER CENTER VOLUME EXPLORES THE NATION’S HIGHEST OFFICE DURING THE TRUMP ERA

Donald Trump’s presidency challenged the Constitution what could bring down that democratic republic: the on a daily basis. Born of a conversation exploring that idea irrationalities of the people. Starting with Th eodore during a Miller Center faculty meeting in 2017, the new Roosevelt, presidents realized they could have more power book Th e Presidency: Facing Constitutional Crossroads will by relating directly to the people. Th ey didn’t have to be be published in May by the University of Virginia Press. limited by the language of the Constitution.”

“We’ve had other times in U.S. history that the presidency Th e Presidency features insights from leading scholars and was at a crossroads,” said Barbara Perry, the Miller Center’s political scientists from across the nation, with a variety of director of Presidential Studies, who co-edited the volume specialties: constitutional law, public policy, ethics, military with Michael Nelson, a Miller Center nonresident faculty policy, Congress, and the presidency. In each chapter, these senior fellow and professor of political science at Rhodes scholars go as far back as our nation’s founding to provide College in Memphis. Th e Trump presidency was one of the deep historical and constitutional context needed to put those infl ection points. the Trump era into its proper perspective. FOR MORE ABOUT THE PRESIDENCY AND TO ORDER A COPY, “Th e Founders were excited and hopeful about creating a new democratic republic,” Perry added. “But they knew GO TO millr.cr/the-presidency

4 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 THE WORLD: A BRIEF INTRODUCTION A CONVERSATION WITH ONE OF AMERICA’S MOST PROMINENT AUTHORITIES ON FOREIGN POLICY

If the COVID-19 pandemic has taught us Q: A SCHOLAR NAMED WALTER LIPPMANN WROTE anything, it’s that we live in an interconnected THAT THE PREVAILING PUBLIC OPINION HAS BEEN society, where a virus that originated in a wet DESTRUCTIVELY WRONG AT CRITICAL JUNCTURES. market somewhere in can sweep across MASS OPINION, HE SAID, HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE A the globe within weeks, causing widespread DANGEROUS MASTER OF DECISIONS WHEN THE STAKES death and upheaval. It has never been more ARE LIFE AND DEATH. ARE THERE DANGERS IN GETTING important for Americans to understand the THE PUBLIC TOO INVOLVED IN FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES? dynamics of the world around them. And yet, by and large, they do not. A: It takes one aback slightly to hear such a full-throated defense of elitism. I’m not sure this In an attempt to educate is unique to foreign policy; it applies to how to the public, Richard Haass, deal with money supply or full employment. president of the Council People may call for police reform, on Foreign Relations and a but aren’t aware of the mechanics of what hundreds of real-world veteran American diplomat, Q: IS THERE A PARTICULAR HISTORICAL EVENT WHERE wrote his latest book, The experiments and experiences have shown will or won’t work. And YOU FIND YOURSELF SURPRISED BY THE LACK OF World: A Brief Introduction. UNDERSTANDING OR KNOWLEDGE? Last December, Haass sat that’s why we don’t have direct down with Todd Sechser— democracy for the most part. A: The question is how to use history rather than a UVA professor of politics, We don’t run the country by abuse it. When I worked for President George a Miller Center faculty senior plebiscites and referenda. We have H. W. Bush, during Operation Desert Storm, fellow, and head of the UVA a representative democracy, and we were doing extraordinarily well. And we had Democracy Initiative’s the whole idea is that people are the air campaign, then several days of a ground Statecraft Lab—to talk pretty busy going about their lives, campaign. And the question was, where do you about the importance of and they entrust a small number stop? Or do you keep going? And do you go to understanding these issues. with the full-time job of managing ? I wrote a memo for the president, and the affairs of the republic. I talked about the Truman-MacArthur decision Q: EVERYTHING IN OUR SOCIETY IS MORE GLOBAL. after the liberation of , following SO WHY ARE AMERICANS LESS INTERESTED? With all due respect to Mr. Lippman, who’s one the Inchon landing and the attempt to reunify of the great minds to ever put pen to paper on A: One of the things the exit polls showed after the peninsula by force. And I talked about what these issues, I don’t necessarily embrace the elites our recent election is just how few Americans I thought was history’s lesson about this, about to the extent that that quote suggests. voted on the basis of foreign policy. If you expanding your warrior aims and the flush of tactical success and the danger in doing that. watched all the debates and the town halls, these Q: AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS issues barely figured. And yet we are living with DISENGAGED FROM FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES, IT IS VERY Q: CAN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA DO A BETTER a virus that began in China; we just marked the DEEPLY POLARIZED. HOW DOES THIS AFFECT FOREIGN 19th anniversary of 9/11; is JOB OF WORKING TOGETHER? having terrible effects with fires and floods and POLICY MAKING? A: The answer is we can, and we have to. storms. People aren’t connecting the dots. A: The president enjoys tremendous leeway when It’s a very different . If the United it comes to the conduct of foreign policy, even States and China can’t cooperate on regional If people don’t know about the world or though the country is divided and polarized and global issues—whether it’s Korea, North don’t care about it, they don’t hold elected in many ways. I do think there’s some potential Korean proliferation, climate change, or global representatives to account. They don’t ask for bipartisanship out there. I think there is health—it’s a much, much worse century. So questions. It makes it much easier for the a bipartisan pushback against authoritarian that seems to me the foreign policy challenge. United States to slide into isolationism. regimes around the world. There may be How do you push back against China, where I do have a general policy preference as well, bipartisan support for increasing the resilience it’s warranted, but do so in a way that doesn’t which is the United States stays involved in and diversity of supply chains. And there’s preclude the cooperation that’s in our self- the world. Something that can probably best been bipartisan support for a closer relationship interest? One might say, that’s why God be sustained by the involvement and support with India. invented diplomats. of the American people. TO WATCH THE FULL CONVERSATION GO TO millr.cr/the-world

VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 5 AFTER ELECTION 2020,and its WHAT’S NEXT FOR UVA INSTITUTE OF DEMOCRACY UVA

AMillerM Center leadsE UVA InstituteR of DemocracyI initiativeC to putA 2020 in context? In a year of the unexpected, one thing was predictable: Th e 2020 mainstream media outlets—Wall Street Journal, Times, presidential election was going to be controversial. And perspective Washington Post, USA Today, PBS, NBC, CBS, Fox, and many would be hard to come by. Enter the University of Virginia’s new more—and the Miller Center’s two election-related blogs, Institute of Democracy, a cross-Grounds collaboration among “Election 2020 and its Aftermath” (millr.cr/election2020) and UVA scholars whose work—in history, politics, law, and other “From Election to Transition” (millr.cr/transition), which took disciplines—would help assess America’s political system as well readers through Inauguration Day. as the beliefs and practices that underpin it. Th e Center also hosted six live virtual events to open the At the nexus of this eff ort has been the Miller Center, off ering both conversation to the UVA community and the general public, long-standing expertise on the American presidency and a consistent who attended in record numbers. role as a convener of nonpartisan, wide-ranging dialogues. Here are a few of the many scholarly insights from this impressive In the days leading up to , and in the weeks afterward, collaboration, which owes much to the generous support of the scholars met virtually at the Center to trade ideas and insights George and Judy Marcus Democracy Praxis Fund. on the news of the day. Th eir work then appeared in two places: 793 78 AVERAGE VIEWERS PUBLISHED OP-EDS SCHOLAR MEDIA PER EVENT 271APPEARANCES 200+ 33 8,949READERS UNIQUE BLOG POSTS TELEVISION 6 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 APPEARANCES 6 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 Instead of drawing us closer as we fi ght a

AFTER ELECTION 2020,and its common enemy, COVID-19 has revealed the depths of the divide in American culture. The virus is a hoax or the virus is By sprinkling sand in the election gears, life threatening. Masks are evidence of the Founders hoped to preclude their concern for others or a sign of weakness worst fear—the selection of demagogues and a threat to liberty. And when the to represent us. White House itself became a hotspot, The American electorate did not the band played on as the president’s Barbara Perry, Miller Center embrace Trump’s antagonistic stance supporters cheered at packed, Hatch toward the world. Public opinion Act–violating campaign rallies. surveys for years have shown that large , UVA Democracy majorities of Americans believe that Initiative/Miller Center alliances, international trade, and active engagement in world affairs are good for the United States. And on Election Day, several million more Americans voted for a candidate who advocated strengthening U.S. alliances, staying involved in international institutions, and cooperating to address transnational For Senator Biden, bipartisanship on his There is a basis for a bipartisan consensus problems like climate change. sponsored bills remained high, above both that China and represent long-term House and Senate averages. This suggests strategic challenges to the United States, Todd Sechser, UVA Politics/Miller Center that he consistently made an effort to and although there may be differences of reach out to members of the opposing emphasis and tactical approaches, those party as he sought to advance his issues are likely to be manageable for the legislative agenda. Biden team. Craig Volden, Frank Batten School Eric Edelman, Miller Center of Leadership and Public Policy

President Trump’s quixotic attack against There was one area where the an imagined crisis of voter fraud is an administration did respond vigorously: attempt to sow confusion and prevent the , the effort to counting of the lawfully submitted ballots develop a vaccine in record time. And of hundreds of thousands of citizens in now we have such a vaccine. How will such swing states as Michigan, , this shape historians’ assessment of the and that will determine the Trump administration’s record? As with so Party loyalty among voters was just outcome of the election. This threatens much of presidential history, the answer is as high as it always is in presidential the voting rights of all Americans. more complicated than a fi rst impression elections: 94 percent of Democrats Kevin Gaines, would suggest. supported Biden and 93 percent of UVA African American Studies/ Guian McKee, Miller Center Republicans voted for Trump. Those Miller Center numbers, if anything, represent a small uptick in partisan loyalty from 2016. Biden might plan to be a president for all Americans, but he wasn’t a candidate for them. Independents voted for Biden over Trump by 14 points (54 percent vs. 40 percent), a signifi cant change from 2016, when independents favored Trump Now that the Electoral College has cast its votes, President-elect Biden faces a new over Clinton (46 percent vs. 42 percent). crisis. Unlike the one faced by during his transition in 1860 and 1861, this one will not lead to civil war. But Joe Biden still must address it—fi rst by uniting the supermajority Jennifer Lawless, UVA Politics/Miller of Americans who are committed to a united state of reality. . . . Lincoln’s crisis featured the Center; and Paul Friedman, UVA Politics secession of seven states. . . . Biden’s crisis is not about states but about state of mind. About two-thirds of the country believes that Biden won the election, fair and square. But another one-third does not. William Antholis, Miller Center

VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 7 While Vice President Biden has ample government experience, he and his team still need to appoint roughly 4,000 Transitions tend to be perilous intervals for fi rst-term presidents, because critical decisions about individuals to executive branch positions, policy and personnel are made in a pressure cooker, when electoral victory has made the incoming designate about 80 people to fi ll senior team supremely confi dent. In the words of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, transitions are positions in the White House, determine times of maximum ignorance paired with maximum arrogance. That’s why so many consequential key legislative priorities, executive mistakes are made in transitions. orders, and carefully consider the content of the forthcoming inaugural Russell Riley, Miller Center address (among many other less- glamorous tasks). Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, Miller Center

Much of [the Trump] administration’s Struggles over race, religion, and immigration deregulatory campaign has been carried have fueled ideological polarization and out through a cumbersome and time- a legislative stalemate in Congress, which consuming bureaucratic process, known has made parties even more dependent on as “notice and comment” rulemaking. presidents to advance their objectives. As Since reversing course on these regulatory a consequence, presidents of both parties actions involves following the same have sought to achieve their policy objectives process, this means the Biden administration with administrative powers rather than could be tied up for many months—if navigate a complex system of separated not years—just in rolling back Trump’s In the wake of American withdrawal, powers to pass legislation. deregulatory program. 11 countries completed the Trans-Pacifi c Sidney Milkis, Miller Center Partnership without the United States— Rachel Augustine Potter, UVA Politics in effect, setting the region’s trade and investment standards without its largest economy and traditional standard setter. In a region whose business is business, that gap between American rhetoric and action has been a source of consternation to governments that Trump and his followers do not have [Biden’s COVID-19 task force] needs trust, view full-spectrum U.S. engagement such a coherent ideology, nor do they not mandates. Indeed, issuing mandates as an essential balance to the rise of enjoy the kind of geographical monopoly may even erode trust. By starting with a Chinese power. that the Confederates possessed. But position of expertise that spans most of Evan Feigenbaum, Miller Center their arguments are animated by some the essential domains, the task force will of the same tactics that allowed the be able to provide states with coherent Lost Cause to thrive for more than 150 evidence-based data and guidelines— years, which may help , too, something that has been lacking since the live on past its political moment. beginning of the crisis. Caroline Janney, UVA History Margaret Riley, UVA School of Medicine/ School of Law

[Hispanics] are a diverse cohort with distinct lived experiences, [The 1968 presidential transition] took place against the backdrop of several shattering political histories, voting preferences, developments that year: the Tet Offensive and a deeply divisive war in Vietnam; the withdrawal of and generational differences. And President Lyndon B. Johnson from the presidential race; the assassinations of civil rights icon Martin paying attention to these distinctions Luther King Jr. and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Robert F. Kennedy; civil and racial unrest may have proved critical to the way throughout the nation; and violent altercations at the Democratic National Convention in . Hispanics voted this year. To many Americans, the nation seemed to be unraveling. Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, Marc Selverstone, Miller Center Miller Center 8 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER1968 CENTER | SPRING 2021 GEORGE AND JUDY MARCUS: STRENGTHENING DEMOCRACY $1 MILLION FUND SUPPORTS CIVIL DISCOURSE IN A DIVISIVE POLITICAL CLIMATE

I applaud and support the Miller Center’s eff orts Center’s events on these topics—viewable on around rebuilding public trust in our shared demand at millr.cr/past-events. It also facilitated democratic institutions.” enhancements to millercenter.org that give current events (impeachments, elections, and presidential Th e George and Judy Marcus Democracy Praxis transitions, for example) the historical context for Fund was established in December 2019 to help which the Miller Center is known. the Miller Center provide substantive, historical, and fact-based context directly to government “From Election to Transition” is the blog offi cials and the public. In particular, Praxis that the Miller Center established in October funds support facilitating civil discourse on 2020, in concert with UVA’s new Institute of Praxis. Th ere couldn’t be a more fi tting word for issues that matter, with voices from across the Democracy, to bring real-time analysis from a philanthropic endeavor that sustains America’s political spectrum. experts across the University of Virginia directly democratic principles. Like democracy, the word to the public (millr.cr/transition). Th is included praxis has Greek roots, referring to the act of Since then, Praxis dollars have been put toward a both fellows and scholars from the Miller Center putting theory into practice. And it is the name slew of media projects, including a documentary as well as UVA’s Department of Politics, the of the fund created for the Miller Center by about George H. W. Bush that the Center Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Greek-born George Marcus and his wife, Judy. coproduced with VPM. Statecraft: Th e Bush 41 Team aired nationally on PBS last year and Policy, UVA School of Law, and more—a true “Judy and I are proud to lend our support in is now available on Amazon Prime. Praxis multidisciplinary eff ort. these challenging times,” said Marcus, who funds supported conversations from former founded Marcus & Millichap in Calabasas, Bush offi cials and other policy experts on the “We’re thankful to be a part of so many critical , one of the largest commercial real art of public service. projects at the Miller Center,” Marcus said. “Th is estate brokerage fi rms in the United States. organization embodies the great values of public “Accurate information and real-time analysis In the turbulent presidential election and transition service: nonpartisan discourse, impact at the provide a climate in which democracy can thrive. period, the Praxis Fund supported the Miller highest levels, and an abiding love of democracy.” TALKING TRANSITIONS WITH THE PARTNERSHIP FOR PUBLIC SERVICE

transition” wasn’t even in administrations,” with a cast of experts to regular use until 1948. examine all aspects of this critical process.

Today the process is very Former White House chiefs of staff diff erent. ’s (George W. Bush), Andrew H. Card Jr. (George false claims about the W. Bush), Denis McDonough (Barack Obama), election aside, the transition and Mack McLarty () looked from one administration at transitions from inside the White House. to the next—and even Former Advisor Stephen J. from a fi rst to a second Hadley (George W. Bush), former Homeland term of a presidency—is Security Advisor (Obama), and always fraught with peril. former Counselor to the President Coordination as thousands (Obama) joined the Miller Center’s Barbara For most of American presidential history, the of important roles change Perry and Melody Barnes to discuss transition in transition from one administration to another hands aff ects both domestic and foreign policy unprecedented times. And the move to governing was, in the words of the Miller Center’s Russell in a constantly changing world. And the lessons was the focus of Secretary of Labor Riley, “unremarkable.” In the 19th and early of how to maximize effi ciency and minimize (Clinton), Counselor to the President Karen 20th centuries, the president had much less risk come only with hard-won experience. Hughes (George W. Bush), Senior Advisor power and his time was not as precious. A (Obama), and former Secretary of March inauguration allowed more leeway Th at experience was put to good use on October Education (George W. Bush). for a new administration to acclimate itself, 2, as the Miller Center joined the Partnership and the entire process took place largely out for Public Service’s Center for Presidential TO WATCH THE SESSION, VISIT millr.cr/talking-transitions of public view, wrote Riley in the Washington Transition to host “Talking Transitions: Post. Indeed, he noted, the term “presidential Perspectives for fi rst- and second-term 1968 VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 9 ON WHAT NOT TO DO SECRET WHITE HOUSE TAPES LBJPRESIDENT BIDEN COULD LEARN FROM THE MISTAKES PRESIDENT JOHNSON MADE AS HE MANAGED A SPLINTERED DEMOCRATIC PARTY by Guian McKee

Among the many problems that face President Joe Biden is the question of how to manage his administration’s relationship with the progressive wing of his own party. Handling such intraparty tensions will be crucial to his ability to keep his coalition unifi ed. Biden is far from the fi rst president to face ideological tensions within his own party. One case stands out, though, in part because a secret White House taping system captured key aspects of the resulting confl ict: that of Lyndon Johnson in the aftermath of his landslide 1964 election victory. Th e details of these conversations are available thanks to the Miller Center’s Presidential Recordings Program, which carefully transcribes and analyzes thousands of hours of tapes of American presidents, recorded between 1940 and 1973. In early 1965, Johnson enjoyed large (D-CT) announced that he would soon hold a Johnson had thus concluded that Kennedy Democratic majorities in the new Congress. series of hearings on the problems of American would take advantage of urban unrest in order Over the next two years, he succeeded in cities in the Senate Government Operations to further his own policy and political goals. passing landmark legislation on voting rights, Subcommittee on Executive Reorganization, In an August 10 conversation with Senate health care, education, anti-poverty, housing, which he chaired. Kennedy also served on the Majority Leader Mike Mansfi eld (D-MT), environmental protection, and the arts—the full committee, and Johnson saw the hand of the Johnson warned that the hearings would range of what the administration had dubbed slain president’s at work in the hearings. jeopardize moderate and conservative “the Great Society.” Th e next day, he explained this in a recorded Democrats around the country: Yet all was not well. against the war in phone call to Treasury Secretary Joe Fowler: PRESIDENT JOHNSON: Now, Mike, you know we’re PRESIDENT JOHNSON: Vietnam and rebellions against racial injustice What I’m more concerned about going to destroy ourselves with this interparty grew larger and more divisive. By mid-1966, than anything else now is that [Robert F.] Bobby politicking, don’t you? Johnson’s critics challenged not only his Kennedy [D-NY], Martin Luther King [Jr.], MANSFIELD: Yes, sir. continuation of the war but also what they [ W.] Joe Alsop, all the papers, New York . . . saw as an inadequate response to poverty and Times—they’re getting on a $100 billion jag for PRESIDENT JOHNSON: And I think that you and Dirksen racial discrimination at home. the cities. ought to sit down and talk to [John L.] McClellan Among those calling for a greatly expanded FOWLER: Yeah. [D–AR] and the ranking member of Government federal eff ort in the latter area was Johnson’s PRESIDENT JOHNSON: Operations. And this committee has no jurisdiction in And I’ve got a $2 billion bill the world to report a damn thing. All it’s going to do is bitter rival, Senator Robert F. Kennedy of that they won’t pass, but they want $100 billion. New York, who had begun to fashion an stir it up. It’s an oversight committee. And that’s $10 billion a year for 10 years. Now, if we MANSFIELD: urban anti-poverty program. Meanwhile, got anything like that, we’d really be ruined. And I Yeah. Kennedy privately derided Johnson’s proposed think that’s what they’re going to do with these riots. PRESIDENT JOHNSON: And I think that if you’ve got Demonstration Cities bill: “It’s too little, it’s And I think they’re going to have enough riots going to stir up something, you ought to do it in January, nothing, we have to do 20 times as much.” on. I think, just between us, that Bobby’s busy riding because you’re just going to beat the hell out of people On August 1, 1966, the insurgency emerged in the labor people and riding the Negroes so that he can like [Lee W.] Metcalf [D–MT] and these boys in Congress when Senator Abraham Ribicoff provide the solution. [Snorts.] Omaha, Nebraska, that are in Congress, and fi ve

10 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 ON WHAT from Iowa, with all this damn fool $100 billion KATZENBACH: Yes, I know they are. And he has my support and my confi dence, and so N e g r o s t u ff. PRESIDENT JOHNSON: [Daniel D. “Dan”] Rostenkowski forth. And I will, whatever fi gure I give in the . . . budget, I will fi ght for it, as I did last year. But I PRESIDENT JOHNSON: And I don’t think we can stand [D–IL] called last night and was rather abusive because I hadn’t denounced the rioters or nullifi ed, cannot keep him from being the victim of Bobby this publicity. I think that [Chicago Mayor Richard [Kennedy] and Ribicoff and [Joseph S.] Joe Clark J. “Dick”] Daley’s called me half a dozen times, and and they quoted him what I said in . [Roman C.] Pucinski’s [D–IL] written a big letter [Jr.] [D–PA] and [Wayne L.] Morse [D–OR]. NOT he said if you don’t stop Bobby and them here it’s just And I cannot keep him from being victim to the to us. And I was talking to some of the boys from the going to ruin me. He’s got all the Poles mad, and got Commies who were out here yesterday and said, TO DO all the Germans mad, got all the Italians mad, and northern areas, upstate New York and others, and they’re bitter. Th e Buff aloes and others. “Give the money to poverty, not Vietnam.” And PRESIDENT BIDEN COULD LEARN FROM THE MISTAKES PRESIDENT JOHNSON MADE AS HE [Mayor Henry W.] Maier from Milwaukee was I think that’s hurt poverty more than anything in LBJ in this morning, said he was sitting on a tinderbox. KATZENBACH: No, they are. Th ere’s no question. the world is that these Commies are parading, and MANAGED A SPLINTERED DEMOCRATIC PARTY He’s got 100,000 Negroes, and the Poles, and the by Guian McKee these kids, long-hairs, saying, you know, that they want poverty instead of Vietnam, and the Negroes. And I think that’s what the people regard as the Great Society. So you look into that and call the signal; make the decision. And if he comes, maybe you come with him, or if you don’t want to be involved in that kind of discussion, suggest to him what the agenda is, what we [will] talk about. Johnson’s linkage here of his liberal opponents in the Senate to what he saw as the “commies” and “long-hairs” protesting in the streets is telling. By this point in his presidency, LBJ had let himself become boxed in not only by Vietnam and its resulting budgetary pressures, but by his own anger at his opponents on the Left. Th is is the negative model that Joe Biden must avoid in the diffi cult and controversial moments that are sure to emerge in the coming years between his administration and the modern progressive Left. Indeed, LBJ tended toward self-destructive outbursts of anger and frustration. But possessed of a very diff erent personality, Biden should be better able to resist such Germans, and everything are fi ghting each other. Although many of the witnesses at the hearings damaging temptations. And we’re stirring it up, up there, and Teddy proved highly critical of Johnson’s anti-poverty Doing so will serve Biden well with less ideological [Kennedy] went down to Jackson, Mississippi, eff orts and called for a massive increase in federal elements of the American electorate, who will be and said, “If you can spend $2 billion on the and private support for development in the cities, crucial to his success. It also will help him remain soldiers in Vietnam, you ought to spend $2 billion on neither Kennedy nor Ribicoff directly endorsed open to real opportunities that progressives may the Negroes.” And [it is] the sheerest demagoguery, the level of expenditures that Johnson feared. recognize, to the new ideas that the Left has to saying that “if you can spend $24 billion a year on Nonetheless, the hearings set out a liberal marker address, and possibly to solve the pressing national 16 million Vietnamese, 14 million, [then] you for a more aggressive approach than the president and global crises. can spend that much on 20 million good Negro was willing to contemplate. In November’s Americans.” Well— midterm elections, the Democrats lost 47 seats Biden need not agree to every demand from in the House and three in the Senate, vastly progressives, but unlike Johnson, he will need to MANSFIELD: [faintly] Th at’s terrible. reducing their majorities and limiting Johnson’s maintain their help in the coalition that brought Johnson had clearly concluded that his interests room to maneuver. him the presidency. In showing what not to do, lay with the center of his party. As such, he LBJ’s example helps to create space for more By the end of the year, the fi ght over funding constructive models moving forward. saw little value in working with the party’s had turned back to the War on Poverty. Sargent Left, much less with even more radical fi gures Shriver, director of the Offi ce of Economic GO TO millr.cr/LBJ-Biden TO READ in the civil rights movement. Th e next day, he Opportunity, pushed for more funds for his THE FULL PIECE AND TO LISTEN TO expounded on that point in a conversation with agency, and contemplated resigning if Johnson THE SECRET WHITE HOUSE TAPES Attorney General Nicholas Katzenbach: and Congress did not agree. On the day after MENTIONED HERE PRESIDENT JOHNSON: What I’ve got is I’ve got the Christmas, LBJ discussed the situation with his Guian McKee, an associate people just calling me every day on this civil rights press secretary, Bill Moyers: professor in Presidential thing and I think if we don’t get it through pretty PRESIDENT JOHNSON: Now, I’m not anxious for him Studies at the Miller Center, is an expert on the presidency quick, we’re not going to get many of them because [Shriver] to stay, more than I am Bundy. I would of Lyndon Johnson. they’re sure getting mad. like for him to, and I think he’s the best one for it.

VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 11 FIRST YEAR KEY IN A KEY YEAR George H. W. Bush had Tiananmen Square and nominated Congressman , changing WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST DOMESTIC POLICY CHALLENGE THE the Berlin Wall. Bill Clinton faced a World Trade his career forever. Both National Security Advisor ADMINISTRATION FACED AND HOW DID IT RESPOND? Center explosion, a standoff in Waco, and Somalia. and Secretary of State James Cary: The savings and loan crisis really took George W. Bush confronted the impact and aftermath Baker backed Cheney’s nomination, which led off in early 1989 after the collapse of Lincoln of the 9/11 attacks. Barack Obama entered office in to the three of them collaborating to a remarkable Savings and Loan. Because S&Ls typically deal the midst of a generational financial and economic degree over the next four years, a huge factor in in mortgage, auto, and other consumer loans, crisis. For Donald Trump, the challenge of his first the foreign policy success of the administration. many Americans were financially affected by the months came from his own radical confrontation MOWHAT SURPRISED YOU MOST IN THE FIRST YEAR OF MENTScollapse of these types of banks. with accepted political norms. It has now become THE NEW ADMINISTRATION? axiomatic that each presidency, especially at its In response, President Bush introduced a bailout beginning, will be about dealing with the unexpected Lu: The unrelenting pace and intensity. It was plan for troubled S&Ls through the sale of $50 and overcoming the unforeseen. exhausting, exhilarating, and frustrating. Every billion in government bonds and established the day felt like a week, and no matter what you FDIC as the regulatory institution over S&Ls. thought your day was going to look like when it As President Joe Biden embarks on his presidential By August, he’d signed legislation that was a started, a new crisis inevitably came up. It wasn’t journey, Miller Center senior fellows Mary compromise with Congress on additional aid and Kate Cary, a veteran of the George H. W. Bush just the number of things on your plate; it was established the new Resolution Trust Company administration, and , who played key also the weightiness of the policy decisions. to oversee troubled banks. roles for President Obama, offer memories and There were never any easy decisions. lessons from their first year. Cary: I’m going with a funny handwritten sign The S&L crisis had the potential to wreak WHAT WAS AN EARLY CHALLENGE THE that was posted over the phone in the White massive damage to the economy, but instead ADMINISTRATION FACED? House Office of Media Relations that read: the administration was able to move quickly Cary: When the Democratic Senate rejected the When a reporter calls, first ask them what they and stop the hemorrhaging. nomination of Sen. John Tower for Secretary of want and THEN say no. Defense, he became the first Cabinet nominee Lu: When President Obama took office in rejected in nearly 30 years, and only the ninth in January 2009, the country was facing the biggest American history. In response, Bush successfully economic downtown since the Great Depression.

12 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 KEY

When presidents fi rst take offi ce, they usually fi nd that winning the election isn’t the hard part

To turn around the economy, we needed to believe that we would have been better off Cary: Get back to your roots—don’t forget stabilize the fi nancial and housing sectors, without it, for relations between our two the days of “ Joe” and being the party provide relief to the auto industry, prevent layoff s countries were already on a fi rm foundation, of working Americans. Be aware that the more in state and local governments, and create private which George Bush had helped to create.” than 70 million Americans who voted for Donald sector jobs. A critical part of the economic WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE YOU WOULD GIVE TO Trump have good-faith concerns about the future recovery was the successful implementation THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION? of our country. Our elected leaders need to start of the $800 billion American Recovery and addressing the real worries of working Americans MOMENTSReinvestment Act, which was overseen by Lu: Tap into the expertise of career federal and their distrust of our political system. Vice President Joe Biden. employees. Whatever the issue—whether it’s the pandemic, the economy, or climate change— I remember President Bush 41 occasionally used WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST MISTAKE THE NEW there are dedicated public servants in the federal to answer the phone in the Oval Offi ce with a ADMINISTRATION MADE? agencies who are eager to roll up their sleeves smile, saying, “President of all the people. How Cary: Bush and [National Security Advisor] and help address these challenges. We also need can I help you?” President Biden would be smart Brent Scowcroft declared a “strategic pause” to do more to encourage the best and brightest to to govern as president of all the people, not just while they reviewed all aspects of U.S. foreign consider government service. the ones who got him elected. policy immediately after the inauguration. Th is also allowed the Soviets to look like they were driving the agenda, especially when and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard TO SUPPORT THE WORK OF THE MILLER CENTER Shevardnadze met in Vienna in March of 1989. MAIL YOUR GIFT TO MILLER CENTER FOUNDATION Th is led to criticism in the media that the new PO BOX 37963 administration lacked “vision,” and seemed to BOONE, IOWA 50037-0963 annoy both our allies and our adversaries. In OR VISIT Doro Bush’s book, My Father, My President, HISTORY IS TALKING, told the author, “I still ARE YOU LISTENING? millercenter.org/donate

VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 13 PRESIDENTIAL ORAL HISTORY 5 LESSONS No previous experience fully prepares one to IF PAINFUL DECISIONS HAVE TO BE MADE, MAKE THEM IN William Galston, deputy domestic policy be president. Th e most important training THE FIRST YEAR. advisor to President Clinton: presidents receive is on the job. But presidents and their aides can learn much about the fi rst No president can be indiff erent to sustained political year from those who have gone before. support, but at the same time achieving sustained political support at the cost of doing what needs to What follows—drawn almost entirely from the be done is a hollow victory. Staff people around Presidential Oral History Program of the Miller the president have to be worried about feeding a Center—are fi ve lessons that any new president president’s desire for sustained high poll ratings. can apply, or at least be informed by, from the At some point, you have to say, “Mr. President, knowledge of those who already have served you’re right. You’re going to pay a price. We’re all in one or more administrations. going to pay a price. But if we don’t do this, we’ll never get another chance and the country will be POLITICS IS PART OF POLICY, NOT ITS OPPOSITE. the worse for it.” Politics is about persuasion, an Clinton had no desire to cut federal spending and axiom that is raise taxes during his fi rst year in offi ce. Nor did no less true after Reagan welcome the deep recession of 1981–82. But the election they chose to act in confi dence (justifi ed, as it turned than before. out) that their policies would help get the economy in strong shape by the time they ran for reelection. David Rubenstein, CREATE A DECISION-MAKING PROCESS SO THAT ROUTINE domestic policy MATTERS DON’T REACH YOU. s t a ff a i d e t o President Jimmy Th e polls that matter are not conducted in the fi rst Carter, 1977–81: year. Th e framers granted presidents a four-year term so that the long-range consequences of their Early on, he was very much, “I only want to know sometimes-diffi cult fi rst-year measures would what the best policy is and I’ll worry about the have time to emerge. politics of it later. You give me the best policy.” Later on those kinds of bravado statements tended to Roger Altman, deputy secretary to disappear and he wanted to know what he could pass, Secretary of the Treasury what we could get through, what did this committee in the Clinton administration: chairman want, what did this interest group want. 1 Remember, you’re playing for four years, you’re not Carter learned from experience that policy and playing for one year. . . . One of the oldest rules of politics are intertwined and, after his fi rst year presidential management is, take your pain up front. in offi ce, listened hard to his congressional and . . . Nobody took more pain up front than Ronald interest group liaisons when shaping successful Reagan. I mean, the worst recession since the Great political strategies to secure approval of the Depression2 occurred in 1981 and 1982 and in the fall Panama Canal treaty, civil service reform, of ’82, in early August, Reagan was being described and other controversial measures. as , politically dead, gone, might as well already make his reservations back to Santa Barbara and so forth. And it turned around and by TO GIVE A GIFT TO THE MILLER CENTER, VISIT November ’84, as you remember, it was “Morning in America” and he won 49 states. Th at’s the way to do it.

millercenter.org/donate 14 ILLUMINATION | UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA’S MILLER CENTER | SPRING 2021 3 from 5 LESSONS PASTEXPERIENCE IS THE BESTPRESIDENCIES TEACHER, EVEN IF IT’S DECADES OLD by Michael Nelson Every decision that lands on the president’s desk DON’T ASSUME YOU’RE OBLIGATED TO FIGHT YOUR congressional party. “We were absolutely should be one that only the president can make PREDECESSOR’S BATTLES. deluged” with “pet legislation” from congressional or actively wants to make. If the process for Democrats when succeeded making other decisions is clear and fair, they Republican president Gerald Ford in 1977, says can be safely delegated to the president’s team. Carter’s legislative liaison, Frank Moore. As a result, “we overloaded the circuits.” Stuart Eizenstat, domestic policy advisor to President Carter: FOREIGN POLICY IS DOMESTIC POLICY. No matter the nature People knew that Carter was insisting on making of the domestic and every last decision. And so, if that’s the case . . . take economic issues that everything to him. What should have happened is may dominate the the president should have said, Look, here is the fi rst year, world leaders [Presidential Review Memorandum]. You’ve given will be taking the new me the basic issues, here are my decisions, now you president’s measure go and settle it . . . and don’t come back to see me.” based on how they are handled. Dick Cheney, chief of staff to President Gerald R. Ford: , If you don’t trust the process, you’re going to start secretary of state to looking for ways around it. . . . All of a sudden you Everyone in Washington who is unhappy with President Clinton: have people freelancing, trying to get around the a decision made in the years before the new It’s hard to overestimate the degree of credibility the decision-making process because they feel the process president takes offi ce will want to relitigate it. president gained internationally by taking steps to lacks integrity. So it’s very, very important when Th e fi rst year should not be fi lled with leftover balance the budget [in 1993], and I think he owed you set up the shop to make certain that you have a issues. Working closely with Secretary of State that to his own determination. But the presence guaranteed fl ow—you know what’s going in; you James Baker, Brent Scowcroft (national security of [Secretary of the Treasury] Lloyd Bentsen and know what’s coming out. You know when it goes advisor to President George H. W. Bush) [National Economic Council Chairman] Bob Rubin in that it’s complete, that everybody’s got their shot moved quickly to negotiate an agreement with and [Offi ce of Management and5 Budget Director] at the decision memo. You know if there’s going to Democratic congressional leaders that settled steeled him to make that very diffi cult be a meeting, the right people are going to be in the what had been a long-standing and contentious decision and changed the whole course of the adminis- meeting, that the president has a chance to listen to interbranch fi ght over U.S. policy toward tration, I think, and put it on a much sounder track. all of that and then make a decision. Nicaragua during the Reagan administration. Some senior foreign leaders were initially inclined to Contrary to lore, Carter did not stay up late Scowcroft:4 regard Clinton, whose prepresidential experience assigning playing times on the White House At the outset of the [Bush] administration, was as of a small Southern state, as an tennis court. But he did go over the massive federal Central America loomed large. It had been a major unimpressive statesman, especially compared budget line by line. Focusing on the forest, while preoccupation of the Reagan administration. I thought with his globally surefooted predecessor, George allowing trusted OMB [Offi ce of Management and excessively so. . . . in this constant confrontation with H. W. Bush. Clinton’s early resolve in the fi rst- Budget] offi cials and White House staff members to the Congress [over policy toward Nicaragua]. It was year budget battle caused these leaders to reassess tend to each individual tree, would have served him not producing results, it was embittering everything, him and, eventually, change their minds. better in persuading Congress to pass a budget that and nothing was getting done. I thought we ought to refl ected his policy priorities. change that. I thought we ought to go up and try to THIS ESSAY IS PART OF THE MILLER CENTER’S co-opt the Congress. And Baker, interestingly enough, FIRST YEAR PROJECT. READ MORE AT the fi rst time we talked about Central America, said FIRSTYEAR2017.ORG the same thing. So that’s what we tried to do. Michael Nelson is a nonresident faculty senior Scowcroft served in an administration led by a fellow at UVA’s Miller Center president of the same party as his immediate and the Fulmer Professor of predecessor. But even a change in partisan Political Science at Rhodes control of the White House can leave the new College in Memphis. president with policies inherited from the 3 VISIT MILLERCENTER.ORG 15 NOTES FROM THE PRESIDENCY As 1940 drew to a close, Franklin Roosevelt (pictured at right) felt pressure from both sides of . The United Kingdom pleaded for American help to survive an onslaught from Nazi Germany. Should they fall, the United States eventually might have had to face a more powerful Hitler alone. But at home, FDR strove to maintain a neutral posture in his bid for a third term in of ce. His victory in November prompted this letter to King George VI (left), expressing gratitude at having overcome “the appeasement element, the pro-Germans, the communists, and the total isolationists.”