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The Changing Geopolitics of the Middle East The Inaugural Sulaimani Forum “The Changing Geopolitics of the Middle East” The American University of Iraq, Sulaimani Sulaimani – Kirkuk Main Road, Raparin Sulaimani, Iraq Tel: +964 (0)53-330-1011 The Inaugural Sulaimani Forum E-mail: [email protected] The Changing Geopolitics of the Middle East facebook.com/auis.edu.iq twitter.com/AUIS_news youtube.com/auisvideos The American University of Iraq, Sulaimani March 12-13, 2013 Conference Proceedings edited by Christine van den Toorn The Institute of Regional and International Studies E-mail: [email protected] facebook.com/IRISmideast twitter.com/IRISmideast Table of Contents 5 Introduction 8 In Their Own Words 10 Executive Summary 12 The Effects of the Arab Spring on the World 18 Iraq and Its Neighbors 24 Iraq: Internal Developments and External Relations 34 The Kurdish Question 42 The Oil Dimension 50 Women Leaders Participate in Rebuilding Nations 56 Conclusion 64 Appendix: The Social Media Aspect Institute of Regional and Sulaimani Forum The Sulaimani Forum is the signature annual event of the Institute of Regional and International Studies. Over the course International Studies (IRIS) of two days, scholars, experts, practitioners and policymakers from around the region and world convene to discuss the most pressing regional issues, current trends, and points of conflict. Through the promotion of rigorous scholarship and open Public lectures, open forums, smaller group discussions, and dialogue among academics and influential public leaders, closed door sessions assuring confidentiality conducive to the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) at candid exchanges, allows the academic and policy worlds to the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS) examines meet, discuss, and work together towards real solutions. today’s most complex regional and global development issues. Drawing from the diversity of fields of expertise at AUIS, the The first annual Sulaimani Forum, held in March 2013 and Institute includes in its scope of activities historical, cultural, summarized in these proceedings, proved to be a tremendous socio-economic, anthropological, and religious dimensions success. Focusing on “The Changing Geopolitics of the Middle pertinent to present day realities and problems. As a space East,” the Forum featured distinguished international scholars, for regional and international encounters, IRIS fosters mutual journalists, and government officials such as: Hoshyar Zebari, understanding and awareness that reaches across national Foreign Minister of the Republic of Iraq; Zalmay Khalilzad, borders, sectarian divisions, and differing perspectives. former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations; and Max Rodenbeck, Chief Middle East Correspondent AUIS is Iraq’s only independent, not-for-profit, American- for The Economist. Participants considered broad issues such as style institution of higher learning. It has excellent conference the social and economic repercussions of energy policies; the facilities and is well placed to assist scholars with logistics, emerging role of women leaders; and the global effects of the introductions, transport and other aspects of field work in the wave of unrest and change that has swept the region. They also region. The University’s location in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq explored particular cases: Iraq, its neighbors, and the Kurdish offers a safe space and a climate of tolerance that is uncommon issue, with diverse geopolitical implications for the Middle East in the Middle East, making it an attractive meeting place for and beyond. people who cannot easily convene elsewhere. These proceedings offer a comprehensive summary of each panel, detailing the main ideas and highlights of each panelist, while putting into context the importance and relevance of each issue and theme for Kurdistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and the world at large. 6 7 The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… Athanasios Moulakis, President, AUIS The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… “The mission of AUIS, as you know, is to serve the country and the region and to do so by The Sulaimani Forum, in their own words… fostering innovation and creativity. Our purpose is to promote the ideal of free inquiry and to provide a privileged space for open, informed, and responsible thought. We are fortunate to be located in this island of stability and security in a troubled region. So, we are delighted to move beyond our undergraduate mission and start the Institute of Regional and International Studies, to move to a higher level of inquiry and to provide people from the four corners of Barham Salih, Chairman of the Board, AUIS the world to discuss matters of importance. This is the first of an annual meeting which is the highest expression of this new institute in which we seek to put together—and we have already “I welcome you to the Sulaimani Forum which moves the assembled here as you will soon see—a distinguished group of academics, journalists, analysts, university beyond its undergraduate studies program and men and women of public life who all seek to understand and to promote understanding, branches out into research and inquiry about issues of current by which I mean both the intellectual understanding of matters and problems but also the affairs and geopolitics and economy and other matters of mutual understanding of people.” importance to this region and the world. We are convening at the Sulaimani Forum this year, which is the inaugural session, at a moment of profound change in the Middle East. Perhaps some can say that the Middle East has always been at moments of change but at least in my memory and contemporary Hoshyar Zebari, Foreign Minister of Iraq history never like this before. Everything is on the move. Everything seems to be in a state of flux with dire consequences “I’m really very impressed, honored, and delighted to be here at this Sulaimani Forum. I didn’t to the region and to the peoples of this land but also to the expect the amount of organizations and the number of guests and friends that you have gathered international community at large. That is why in the spirit of together. I believe this is the first such forum not only in Kurdistan but maybe in Iraq because concern for our future and the future of our generations, we the very idea of debate and exchange of ideas is really an alien thing in Saddam’s Iraq at least. In need to have a very serious debate: these issues of interest and the new Iraq also we haven’t done a good job to bring people together. In fact, we [Iraqis] are concern for our people and for our region and for the world at almost always the guests of other forums where we listen to others question us about the future large. I cannot say there will be easy answers to these issues; of our country and where we are going. So, to take the initiative and to take the lead is really an these are intractable issues rooted in history, culture, politics, achievement. And it is also so timely for the Institute of Regional and International Studies that and also regional and international interests. But I hope this you are proposing. There is no better place to hold this than Kurdistan because it is at the thick university and this Sulaimani Forum can bring experts and of all of these regional conflicts and international changes and that’s why really the timing and people of goodwill together, policy makers, opinion makers, to location of this forum and of this institute I personally whole-heartedly support.” make sure that this debate is guided in the right direction.” 8 9 Executive Summary The inaugural Sulaimani Forum brought together The tumult and turmoil of the changing geopolitics is not all bad and really cannot be and academics at the American University of Iraq, judged in this beginning, experimental stage, Sulaimanigovernment (AUIS) officials, for twopolicy days analysts, of discussion journalists, about suggested many of the Forum’s panelists. The some of the region’s most pressing geopolitical Arab Spring was the start of a long period issues. of transformation, a “cycle” in the words of Economist correspondent Max Rodenbeck. The geopolitical changes in the Middle East The experimentation phase is messy, risky, resulting from the Arab Spring are profound: and unstable, but hopefully will also include decades-old regimes have been dismantled, important steps like ‘institution building,’ and the realigning longstanding coalitions on a regional creation of ‘democrats’ and a ‘political culture.’ and global scale. The United States was caught The hope is that this will end in what Ihsan , off guard and must now deal with the Muslim professor at the Middle East Technical University, Brotherhood in Egypt. Egyptians are divided in calls a “democratic stability” that nations in Dağıthe their support for the Islamist group, and many Middle East and North Africa region have not desire a secular, liberal-minded government. seen before. Iran’s traditional ally, Syria, is embroiled in a seemingly endless civil war. Libyans and While exploring the current state and future implications of the Arab Spring on the region and Tunisians are still struggling to determine what options and scenarios for Iraq, for Kurdistan, and some
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