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Forecasting Tropical Cyclones
Forecasting Tropical Cyclones Philippe Caroff, Sébastien Langlade, Thierry Dupont, Nicole Girardot Using ECMWF Forecasts – 4-6 june 2014 Outline . Introduction . Seasonal forecast . Monthly forecast . Medium- to short-range forecasts For each time-range we will see : the products, some elements of assessment or feedback, what is done with the products Using ECMWF Forecasts – 4-6 june 2014 RSMC La Réunion La Réunion is one of the 6 RSMC for tropical cyclone monitoring and warning. Its responsibility area is the south-west Indian Ocean. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/# Introduction Seasonal forecast Monthly forecast Medium- to short-range Other activities in La Réunion TRAINING Organisation of international training courses and workshops RESEARCH Research Centre for tropical Cyclones (collaboration with La Réunion University) LACy (Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones) : https://lacy.univ-reunion.fr DEMONSTRATION SWFDP (Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project) http://www.meteo.fr/extranets/page/index/affiche/id/76216 Introduction Seasonal forecast Monthly forecast Medium- to short-range Seasonal variability • The cyclone season goes from 1st of July to 30 June but more than 90% of the activity takes place between November and April • The average number of named cyclones (i.e. tropical storms) is 9. • But the number of tropical cyclones varies from year to year (from 3 to 14) Can the seasonal forecast systems give indication of this signal ? Introduction Seasonal forecast Monthly forecast Medium- to short-range Seasonal Forecast Products Forecasts of tropical cyclone activity anomaly are produced with ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System, and also with EUROSIP models (union of UKMO+ECMWF+NCEP+MF seasonal forecast systems) Other products can be informative, for example SST plots. -
Improving Lightning and Precipitation Prediction of Severe Convection Using of the Lightning Initiation Locations
PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE Improving Lightning and Precipitation Prediction of Severe 10.1002/2017JD027340 Convection Using Lightning Data Assimilation Key Points: With NCAR WRF-RTFDDA • A lightning data assimilation method was developed Haoliang Wang1,2, Yubao Liu2, William Y. Y. Cheng2, Tianliang Zhao1, Mei Xu2, Yuewei Liu2, Si Shen2, • Demonstrate a method to retrieve the 3 3 graupel fields of convective clouds Kristin M. Calhoun , and Alexandre O. Fierro using total lightning data 1 • The lightning data assimilation Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information method improves the lightning and Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, 3Cooperative convective precipitation short-term Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS), NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, University of Oklahoma forecasts (OU), Norman, OK, USA Abstract In this study, a lightning data assimilation (LDA) scheme was developed and implemented in the Correspondence to: Y. Liu, National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting-Real-Time Four-Dimensional [email protected] Data Assimilation system. In this LDA method, graupel mixing ratio (qg) is retrieved from observed total lightning. To retrieve qg on model grid boxes, column-integrated graupel mass is first calculated using an Citation: observation-based linear formula between graupel mass and total lightning rate. Then the graupel mass is Wang, H., Liu, Y., Cheng, W. Y. Y., Zhao, distributed vertically according to the empirical qg vertical profiles constructed from model simulations. … T., Xu, M., Liu, Y., Fierro, A. O. (2017). Finally, a horizontal spread method is utilized to consider the existence of graupel in the adjacent regions Improving lightning and precipitation prediction of severe convection using of the lightning initiation locations. -
Date Pilot Aircraft Serial No Station Location 6/1/1950 Eggert, Wayne W
DATE PILOT AIRCRAFT SERIAL_NO STATION LOCATION 6/1/1950 EGGERT, WAYNE W. XH-12B 46-216 BELL AIRCRAFT CORP, NY RANSIOMVILLE 3 MI N, NY 6/1/1950 LIEBACH, JOSEPH G. B-29 45-21697 WALKER AFB, NM ROSWELL AAF 14 MI ESE, NM 6/1/1950 LINDENMUTH, LESLIE L F-51D 44-74637 NELLIS AFB, NV NELLIS AFB, NV 6/1/1950 YEADEN, HUBERT N C-46A 41-12381 O'HARE IAP, IL O'HARE IAP 6/1/1950 SNOWDEN, LAIRD A T-7 41-21105 NEW CASTLE, DE ATTERBURY AFB 6/1/1950 BECKLEY, WILLIAM M T-6C 42-43949 RANDOLPH AFB, TX RANDOLPH AFB 6/1/1950 VAN FLEET, RAYMOND A T-6D 42-44454 KEESLER AFB, MS KEESLER AFB 6/2/1950 CRAWFORD, DAVID J. F-51D 44-84960 WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB, OH WEST ALEXANDRIA 5 MI S, OH 6/2/1950 BONEY, LAWRENCE J. F-80C 47-589 ELMENDORF AAF, AK ELMENDORF AAF, AK 6/2/1950 SMITH, ROBERT G F-80B 45-8493 FURSTENFELDBRUCK AB, GER NURNBERG 6/2/1950 BEATY, ALBERT C F-86A 48-245 LANGLEY AFB, VA LANGLEY AFB 6/2/1950 CARTMILL, JOHN B F-86A 48-293 LANGLEY AFB, VA LANGLEY AFB 6/2/1950 HAUPT, FRED J F-86A 49-1026 KIRTLAND AFB, NM KIRTLAND AFB 6/2/1950 BROWN, JACK F F-86A 49-1158 OTIS AFB, MA 8 MI S TAMPA FL 6/3/1950 CAGLE, VICTOR W. C-45F 44-87105 TYNDALL FIELD, FL SHAW AAF, SC 6/3/1950 SCHOENBERGER, JAMES H T-7 43-33489 WOLD CHAMBERLIAN FIELD, MN WOLD CHAMBERLAIN FIELD 6/3/1950 BROOKS, RICHARD O T-6D 44-80945 RANDOLPH AFB, TX SHERMAN AFB 6/3/1950 FRASER, JAMES A B-50D 47-163 BOEING FIELD, SEATTLE WA BOEING FIELD 6/4/1950 SJULSTAD, LLOYD A F-51D 44-74997 HECTOR APT, ND HECTOR APT 6/4/1950 BUECHLER, THEODORE B F-80A 44-85153 NAHA AB, OKI 15 MI NE NAHA AB 6/4/1950 RITCHLEY, ANDREW J F-80A 44-85406 NAHA AB, OKI 15 MI NE NAHA AB 6/4/1950 WACKERMAN, ARNOLD G F-47D 45-49142 NIAGARA FALLS AFB, NY WESTCHESTER CAP 6/5/1950 MCCLURE, GRAVES C JR SNJ USN-27712 NAS ATLANTA, GA MACDILL AFB 6/5/1950 WEATHERMAN, VERNON R C-47A 43-16059 MCCHORD AFB, WA LOWRY AFB 6/5/1950 SOLEM, HERMAN S F-51D 45-11679 HECTOR APT, ND HECTOR APT 6/5/1950 EVEREST, FRANK K YF-93A 48-317 EDWARDS AFB, CA EDWARDS AFB 6/5/1950 RANKIN, WARNER F JR H-13B 48-800 WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB, OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB 6/6/1950 BLISS, GERALD B. -
Wind Energy Forecasting: a Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy
Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy Keith Parks Xcel Energy Denver, Colorado Yih-Huei Wan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado Gerry Wiener and Yubao Liu University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Boulder, Colorado NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. S ubcontract Report NREL/SR-5500-52233 October 2011 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy Keith Parks Xcel Energy Denver, Colorado Yih-Huei Wan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado Gerry Wiener and Yubao Liu University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Boulder, Colorado NREL Technical Monitor: Erik Ela Prepared under Subcontract No. AFW-0-99427-01 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Subcontract Report 1617 Cole Boulevard NREL/SR-5500-52233 Golden, Colorado 80401 October 2011 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 This publication received minimal editorial review at NREL. NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Eyes on the Ocean NDBC Buoys Supporting Prediction, Forecast and Warning for Natural Hazards for Oceans in Action Stennis Space Center August 17, 2016
Eyes on the Ocean NDBC Buoys Supporting Prediction, Forecast and Warning for Natural Hazards for Oceans In Action Stennis Space Center August 17, 2016 Helmut H. Portmann Director, National Data Buoy Center National Weather Service August 17, 2016 1 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Near to above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year 70 percent likelihood of 12 to 17 named storms Hurricane Alex January TS Bonnie May TS Colin June TS Danielle June Hurricane Earl August Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter NationalNational Weather Data Buoy Service Center 2 Influence of La Nina Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell NationalNational Weather Data Buoy Service Center 3 NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center NationalNational Weather Data Buoy Service Center 4 www. ndbc.noaa.gov www. ndbc.noaa.gov NationalNational Weather Data Buoy Service Center NDBC Observing Platforms Tsunami Weather Buoys in Place for > 30 Years Wx TAO 106 met/ocean WX buoys 47 C-MAN stations 55 TAO Climate Monitoring buoys + 4 current profiler moorings 39 DART Tsunami Monitoring stations NationalNational Weather Data BuoyService Center 6 National Data Buoy Center Electronics Labs Facilities at SSC, MS MCC Operates 24/7/365 Sensor Testing & Cal High Bay Fabrication Paint & Sandblasting Wind Tunnel & Environmental Chambers In-Water Testing Machine Shops El Nino - La Nina Detection NDBC maintains an -
May 20 Virtual Media Briefing on NOAA's 2021 Atlantic Hurricane
TRANSCRIPT NOAA 2021 Hurricane Season Outlook Virtual Media Briefing May 20, 2021 at 12:30 p.m. EDT via GoToMeeting Hosted by NOAA National Weather Service Public Affairs Media advisory about briefing NOAA to announce 2021 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 20 Hurricane Outlook news release NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season 0:22 Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining the announcement of NOAA's 2021, Hurricane Season Outlook. 0:29 This media briefing is being recorded, so if you do not wish to be recorded, please disconnect at this time. 0:34 My name is Lauren, and I'm the media contact for today's Hurricane Outlook. 0:39 At the conclusion of this media briefing, maybe contact e-mail, or by phone, using the contact information included in the media advisory to use to access today's webinar. 0:48 Due to a scheduling conflict, the Secretary of Commerce was unable to join us today, but we are very glad to welcome Deputy Commerce Secretary John Graves in her stead. 0:57 In addition to Deputy secretary grades, I'm joined by Ben Friedman, the App to NOAA Administrator, Matthew Rosencrantz. Now as lead hurricane season forecaster and FEMA administrator as well. 1:09 We'll begin today's briefing with remarks from our speakers and then we'll take questions from reporters. If you'd like to ask a question during the question and answer portion of this briefing, please click the hand icon in the GoToWebinar window next to your name. 1:22 I'll then call upon each quarter. -
ISAIAS (AL092020) 30 July–4 August 2020
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE ISAIAS (AL092020) 30 July–4 August 2020 Andy Latto, Andrew Hagen, and Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 1 11 June 2021 GOES-16 10.3-µM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS AT 0310 UTC 04 AUGUST 2020 AS IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR OCEAN ISLE BEACH, NORTH CAROLINA. Isaias was a hurricane that formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm affected the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and a large portion of the eastern United States. 1 Original report date 30 March 2021. Second version on 15 April updated Figure 12. This version corrects a wind gust value in the Winds and Pressures section and the track length of a tornado in Delaware. Hurricane Isaias 2 Table of Contents SYNOPTIC HISTORY .......................................................................................... 3 METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS ...................................................................... 5 Winds and Pressure ........................................................................................... 5 Caribbean Islands and Bahamas ..................................................................... 6 United States ................................................................................................... 6 Rainfall and Flooding ......................................................................................... 7 Storm Surge ....................................................................................................... 8 Tornadoes ....................................................................................................... -
MHAC Newsletter 5 AUTUMN 2019.Pdf
MHAC NEWSLETTER ISSUE 5 AUTUMN 2019 MENWITH HILL ACCOUNTABILITY CAMPAIGN What are we up against at Menwith Hill US base? WHAT ARE WE UP AGAINST HOW IS NSA/NRO MENWITH AT MENWITH HILL US BASE? HILL CONTRIBUTING TO US ISSUE 5 The Pentagon wants to test a space-based weapon in 2023.1 ‘DEFENSE’? The new Commander of US Space Command has spoken about ‘the changing realm of space operations — that it is The following are just some snippets of news about some of becoming a contested “war-fighting domain”’.2 NATO also the base’s roles. aims at recognising space as a domain of warfare this year and the UK will become the first nation to join ‘Operation CONTENTS Olympic Defender – a US-led international coalition formed IN US DRONE STRIKES to deter hostile actors in space.’3 A German court ruled back in March that the German Any war in space could be disastrous. government must ensure that any drone strikes coordinated What are we up against at Menwith Hill US base? pg2 through US military bases in Germany comply with 1 The US military also remains ‘the largest institutional international law. consumer of hydrocarbons in the world’ according to an How is NSA/NRO Menwith Hill contributing to US ‘defense’? pg2 independent study conducted by Lancaster and Durham Jennifer Gibson, staff attorney at Reprieve, has said the case universities.4 About one third of its emissions occurs in major puts the UK on notice. ‘UK personnel have played a “crucial conflict zones. and sustained role” in the US military drone programme, with UK officials reportedly taking part in so-called “hits”, What developments are planned at Menwith Hill? pg3 NSA/NRO Menwith Hill surveillance base has many roles “triangular[ing]” intelligence for targets lists, “tasking targets” in US ‘defense’, roles that depend on space. -
Thor's Legions American Meteorological Society Historical Monograph Series the History of Meteorology: to 1800, by H
Thor's Legions American Meteorological Society Historical Monograph Series The History of Meteorology: to 1800, by H. Howard Frisinger (1977/1983) The Thermal Theory of Cyclones: A History of Meteorological Thought in the Nineteenth Century, by Gisela Kutzbach (1979) The History of American Weather (four volumes), by David M. Ludlum Early American Hurricanes - 1492-1870 (1963) Early American Tornadoes - 1586-1870 (1970) Early American Winters I - 1604-1820 (1966) Early American Winters II - 1821-1870 (1967) The Atmosphere - A Challenge: The Science of Jule Gregory Charney, edited by Richard S. Lindzen, Edward N. Lorenz, and George W Platzman (1990) Thor's Legions: Weather Support to the u.s. Air Force and Army - 1937-1987, by John F. Fuller (1990) Thor's Legions Weather Support to the U.S. Air Force and Army 1937-1987 John F. Fuller American Meteorological Society 45 Beacon Street Boston, Massachusetts 02108-3693 The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States Government. © Copyright 1990 by the American Meteorological Society. Permission to use figures, tables, and briefexcerpts from this monograph in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided the source is acknowledged. All rights reserved. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, elec tronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permis sion ofthe publisher. ISBN 978-0-933876-88-0 ISBN 978-1-935704-14-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-935704-14-0 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990 Library of Congress catalog card number 90-81187 Published by the American Meteorological Society, 45 Beacon Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02108-3693 Richard E. -
Hurricane Fact Sheet.Indd
National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA’s Role in Hurricane Research Why Does NASA Study Hurricanes? NASA is the world’s leader in developing state-of-the-art remote sensors that study all aspects of weather and climate. NASA uses this technology to study hurricanes and typhoons around the world and to help forecasters make better predictions on the storm’s behavior. Back in 1960, NASA launched the very first weather satellite called TIROS-1. TIROS-1 facts enabled approaching hurricanes that threat- ened the U.S. to be seen approaching from across the Atlantic for the first time. Today, NASA has several satellites circling the Earth look- ing at different aspects of hurricanes, including winds, ocean temperature, humidity, and rain- fall in storms. NASA’s research into hurricanes addresses two key questions: 1) How are global precipitation, evaporation, and the world’s water cycle changing? 2) How can weather forecasts be improved NASA and made more reliable over longer periods of Hurricane Katrina approaching New Orleans time using satellites, unique airborne datasets, in August 2005. Katrina is likely to be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S. in history. and computer modeling? Assessments from the damage it caused NASA’s satellite instruments also provide along the Gulf Coast, including the city of New unique data for meteorologists at the National Orleans, indicate damages will far surpass Hurricane Center to help them with their hurri- 1992’s deadly Hurricane Andrew, which brought cane forecasts. over $26 billion in damages to south Florida and southeast Louisiana. Credit: NASA What is a Tropical Cyclone? A generic name for a tropical depression (winds up to 36 mph); a tropical storm (winds 37- What Does NASA Provide? 73 mph); and a hurricane or typhoon (winds 74 NASA provides space-based satellite obser- mph to greater than 155 mph). -
Unemployment Insurance Program Letter No. 12-90
CLASSIFICATION UI U.S. Department of Labor CORRESPONDENCE SYMBOL Employment and Training Administration TEUMI Washington, D.C. 20210 DATE January 12, 1990 DIRECTIVE: UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM LETTER NO. 12-90 TO: ALL STATE EMPLOYMENT SECURITY AGENCIES FROM: DONALD J. KULICK S/S Administrator for Regional Management SUBJECT: UCFE — Department of the Air Force Civilian Personnel Office (CPO) Addresses and Routing of Claims Documents 1. Purpose. To advise State Employment Security Agencies(SESAs)of the update to the previously issued Department of the Air Fore* Civilian Personnel Office (CPO) address Listing and reemphasize the need to use the correct address for nailing UCFE claim documents to the appropriate personnel or payroll office address of all Federal agencies. 2. References. UIPL No. 48-89, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: UIPL No. 32- 89, Coast Guard Nonappropriated Fund Activities; and UIPL 22*88, Directory of Federal and Military Agencies Requesting Quarterly UCFE or UCX Detailed Benefit Payment Data. 3. Background. Some Federal agencies have brought to the National Office's attention that UCFE claims inquiries and determinations are being sent incorrectly to their Headquarters address instead of the field personnel office/CPO where the claimant was last employed. We have also been notified by the Air Force that their CPO listing has been updated to reflect changes in office acronyms, contact persons, and telephone numbers. 4. Listing of Department of Air Force CPQ Addresses, Attached is a listing of the most recent addressee of CPOs for the Air Force; it supersedes all previous lists of Air Force CPO addresses. Effective immediately, all SESAs should begin using this new listing for nailing Forms ES-931, 931A, 934, 936, notices of determination and appeals to the Air Force when an SF-8 is not presented.