Equity Group Foundation
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Investor Briefing FY 2017 Performance Macroeconomic Environment Indicators & Trends 1 % Jan-13 Inflation has been on a sustained recovery since mid 2017. Inflationary pressure now now pressure Inflationary 2017. mid since recovery sustained a on been has Inflation Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 within the targeted range targeted the within Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Inflation Mar-15 , May-15 inflation rate at a new low level of 4.46% of level low new a at rate inflation Jul-15 Sep-15 – Nov-15 Kenya 12 Jan-16 11 Mar-16 10 May-16 9 Jul-16 8 Sep-16 7 Nov-16 6 Jan-17 5 Mar-17 restrained 4 May-17 3 Jul-17 2 Sep-17 and currently currently and 1 Nov-17 0 Dec-17 Feb-18 band Lower Inflation Target band Upper CBR 2 Foreign Exchange – Kenya The Kenyan Shilling has been relatively stable in 2017 with the largest volatility between January and March driven by increased importation of food. 2018 continues to see a recovering Shilling. 105 104 KES/USD 103 102 101 100 99 98 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 2017 3 reserves accumulation reserves down slowed however has prices oil global in recovery continued The 4 months. recommended the against level stable remainFX reserves 2017 Jun since recovery a started have markets international Oil in the Crudeof prices Average Source: CBK Source: Cover Import of Months Recommended Import Cover Import of Months Foreign Reserves Reserves Foreign Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 – May-17 Kenya Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 4 months months importwithinof cover levels stable global of recovering the effectoil prices to continues remittances Diaspora growing The Months of Import Cover Import of Months Millions) (US$ Remittances Diaspora Monthly Foreign Reserves Reserves Foreign thus suppress the the suppress keeping Jan-17 Feb-17 147.5 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 – Kenya 154.9 203.8 Jun-17 175.2 176.1 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 5.4 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.8 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 5 21.2% Jul-15 21.0% Aug-15 20.8% Sep-15 19.5% Oct-15 18.7% Nov-15 18.0% Dec-15 17.0% Jan-16 Trend Growth Credit Sector Private 16.0% Feb-16 15.5% Mar-16 13.5% Apr-16 11.1% May-16 8.6% Jun-16 7.1% Jul-16 5.3% Aug-16 4.4% Sep-16 4.6% Oct-16 4.2% Nov-16 4.1% Dec-16 3.9% Jan-17 3.5% Feb-17 3.0% Mar-17 2.3% Apr-17 1.9% May-17 1.5% Jun-17 2.0% Oct-17 2.4% 6 Dec-17 Current Account Deficit – Kenya The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.4% of GDP in 2018 largely due to; • Lower imports of food • Lower imports in the second phase of the SGR project • Steady growth in tea and horticulture exports • Strong diaspora remittances • continued growth in receipts from tourism. Current Account Deficit/GDP -5.2% -6.2% -6.7% -8.4% -9.1% -8.8% -10.4% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7 Tourist Arrivals – Kenya Kenya remains a growing tourist destination. Tourists visits consistently growing except for electioneering months. Growth expected to be compounded by; • New Kenya – US direct flight • Lifting of travel ban In thousands +18% +36% -7% 105 +16% 106 +6% +15% 97 0% +23% +5% +22% +7% 90 90 87 -11% 80 79 78 75 73 73 72 76 72 73 67 68 69 69 63 65 59 55 Jul Apr Oct Jan Jun Mar Feb Nov Aug Dec Sep May 2016 2017 JKIA and MIA arrivals 8 Evolving Economic Environment 9 2018 Operating Environment 2018 Challenges 1. Region instability especially in South Sudan and DRC 2. Interest rate capping has continued to create a credit squeeze on businesses 2018 Rays of Hope 1. Lifting of travel sanctions by the US 2. Opening of direct flights to US from Kenya 3. IMF sponsored economic reforms expected to continue as part of a Stand-By Arrangement facility. Reforms include; • Reducing the fiscal deficit • Amending interest rate controls 4. No elections in any of the East African countries in 2018, leading to minimum disruptions to businesses 5. Reduced political risk in Kenya with the resolve of the ruling party and their opposition to bring the country together 6. End of the prolonged 2 year drought that had crippled agriculture, water and energy supplies 7. Continued growth in FX streams from Diaspora and growing tourism flows 8. Renewed focus on the Big 4 - agriculture, low income housing, affordable health and manufacturing 10 Emerging Opportunities in Africa Africa Agenda 2063 which holds a great opportunity for the continent's transformation a) Africa Continental Free Trade Area b) Free movement of persons supported by Africa open sky space c) Plan for accelerated industrialization of Africa d) The joint development of infrastructure ( cross border roads, railways, energy pool strategy and communications) e) Transformation and natural resources mining and processing the same in the continent 11 Equity Group Business Model & Strategy – Post Interest Rate Capping 12 Equity Bank Business Model & Strategy – Post Interest Rate Capping (Adjusting and adapting to the new norm) Focus areas: 1. Non-funded income growth 2. Treasury 3. Subsidiaries and business diversification 4. Strengthening liquidity and balance sheet agility 5. Asset quality 6. Innovation and digitization 7. Efficiencies and cost optimization 13 Focus Area 1: Non-funded income growth Loan Interest Income Non Funded Income Total Interest Income Growth Trend Growth Trend Growth Trend +19% -7% +14% -21% 51.8 43.4 48.4 8.4 43.5 38.0 +24% Treasury Interest 5.4 14.3 34.1 Income 27.6 +1% 21.9 22.2 43.4 Loan Interest 38.0 Income 34.1 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 14 Focus Area 1: Non-funded income growth In Kes Million Fees & Commissions (Key Lines - Kenya) FX Income Salary Remittance Gross Merchant Mobile Banking Commission Commission 2,195 1,910 +15% 1,344 1,215 +11% 1,281 1,197 1,103 +16% +64% 731 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 Trade Finance Agency Commission AMEX Commission Diaspora Remittances 1035 893 +16% 828 717 +15% 274 178 +54% 198 151 +31% FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 *Equitel only charges on transfers to other banks and mobile operators 15 Focus Area 1: Non-funded income growth We have partnered with key payment …which has allowed us to grow our number of transactions companies… and commissions Volume (Billions) Commissions (Billions) +17% +25% 55.7 47.6 38.2 1.3 1.1 +16% 0.9 +24% ▪ Equity is leading in Acquiring and Issuing FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 ▪ Best in class payment channel services work well with merchants Merchant Transaction Volumes Merchant Commissions 16 Focus Area 2: Treasury In KES Billion In KES Billion In KES Billion Government Yield on Government Treasury Gross Income Treasury Income Mix Securities Portfolio Securities Contribution 59% 3% 19.2 76.0 128.0 74.1 0.9 0.7 12.0 Treasury Income 19.2 (16%) (25%) 11.7% 4.1 (21%) 100.6 11.0% Interest Income 12.0 Placements 0.5 Bond Trading 0.3 Income 3.3 FX Income (27%) All Other Income 62.0 (ex Treasury Income) (84%) 56.8 13.4 (75%) (70%) Interest Income 7.9 Gov. Securities (65%) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 Note: Income calculation above is before funding costs 17 Focus Area 3: Subsidiaries & business diversification . Double digit growth in profitability across subsidiaries . Enhanced PAT contribution to Group from 7% to 14% In KES Billion Contribution Contribution Uganda DRC Rwanda Tanzania S. Sudan EIA Finserve EIB Total EBKL FY 2017 FY 2016 Deposit 20.7 32.3 15.1 19.1 4.9 - - - 92.1 298.7 24% 21% Growth 52% 39% 20% 25% -33% 28% 8% Loan 14.0 21.8 11.5 17.3 0.1 - - - 64.6 214.5 23% 20% Growth 56% 28% 14% 7% -19% 24% 0% Assets 29.3 42.9 21.4 26.0 8.3 0.4 2.0 1.2 131.4 406.4 24% 22% Growth 60% 32% 36% 9% -25% -50% 11% 39% 25% 7% PAT (Kes) 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.11 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.6 16.3 14% 7% Growth (Kes) 81% 63% 80% 17% 121% 0% 21% 94% 126% 7% PAT (LCY) 30.6 0.003 3.9 4.8 0.13 0.3 0.2 0.1 16.3 Growth (LCY) 87% 60% 87% 18% 131% 0% 21% 94% 7% 18 Focus Area 4: Strengthening liquidity position and agile balance sheet ….to mitigate economic uncertainty and shocks and to support responsiveness and agility Liquidity Ratio (Group) 54.2% 50.6% 51.1% 52.1% 47.6% 42.7% Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 19 Focus Area 4: Strengthening liquidity position and agile balance sheet In KES Billion Funding Split Asset Split Growth per Group Growth per Group Funding Type Asset Class +11% +11% 524.5 524.5 10.3 20% 37.8 473.7 47.9 (2%) -11% 4% 473.7 (7%) 8.6 (9%) Other Liabilities 42.6 46.0 (2%) Other Assets Borrowed Funds 93.1 (9%) 128.0 (10%) 14% 27% (18%) (24%) Shareholders’ 82.0 Government 100.6 Funds (17%) Securities (21%) 79.6 24% Cash & Cash 64.4 (15%) Equivalents (14%) 373.1 11% 337.2 Deposits (71%) (71%) 266.1 279.1 5% Net Loans (56%) (53%) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 20 Focus Area 5: Asset quality (Group) NPL’s – Sector vs EGH Plc as at Q4 2017 NPL per sector as at Q4 2017 Sector (Kenya) 15.4% 10.7% 10.6% Group 9.9% 9.5% 9.1% 8.8% 8.4% 7.7% 7.4% 8.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.3% 6.7% 6.2% 6.3% 5.8% 4.6% 3.8% 3.3% 0.0% SME Total Micro Large Consumer Agriculture Enterprises Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Enterprises NPL Coverage 69.1% 64.4% 48.0% 50.3% (Spec.