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INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. A Bell & Howell Information Com pany 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 BUILDING FOUNDATIONS TO SETTLE PROTRACTED CONFLICT: THE INDO-PAKISTANI CASE DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Tinaz Pavri, B.A., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1994 Dissertation Committee Approved by D.A. Sylvan C.F. Alger Adviser M. Hermann Department of Political Science R.K. Herrmann UMI Number: 9517065 UMI Microform 9517065 Copyright 1995, by UMI Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 To my parents For their belief that I could do anything ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many individuals influenced the writing of this dissertation, both directly and indirectly. I am most appreciative of the seemingly limitless guidance and encouragement that my adviser, Donald Sylvan, offered at every point. I can't imagine a more dedicated and caring dissertation chair. It was in Margaret Hermann's class that the seed for this dissertation was planted, and for that I'm grateful, for it proved more fulfilling than I imagined. Chad Alger was always ready to offer valuable suggestions and Richard Herrmann was a valued adviser. Friends and relatives have all contributed their support, particularly Tom and Firooza, who will both have suffered a double dose of dissertation writing when this is all over. My parents, although oceans away, were always my inspiration. An award from the Graduate School enabled me to conduct interviews in India and thus acquire an understanding of the problem that words cannot always convey. iii VITA March 11,1966 .................. Born, Bombay, India 1987 ............................ B.A. , St. Xavier's College, Bombay 1989 ............................ M.A., Ohio University Athens, Ohio 1989-present .................. Graduate Assistant, Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science Studies in: International Relations Conflict and Peace Comparative Foreign Policy Transnational Relations iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................... iii VITA ...................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................ ix CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 1 The Study of Conflict....................... 1 Settlement and Resolution: A Clarification of T e r m s .......................................6 Introducing Prenegotiations.....................10 Foundation Building or Pre-Prenegotiation: A M o d e l ........................................20 Elements of Foundation Building: Relating Specific Hypotheses to the Existing Literature. 23 Conclusion.....................................38 II. RESEARCH DESIGN 41 The General Strategy............................41 Units of Analysis.............................. 43 The Cases: Time Periods under Analysis .... 45 Variable Descriptions and Coding Instructions . 48 Independent Variables .................... 48 Dependent Variable: Conflict De-escalation and Settlement.............................68 A Discussion of Data Sources .......... 70 Accounting for B i a s ........................73 How Chapters are O r g ani zed................ 75 v III. THE FIVE CASES................................ 77 The First Indo-Pakistani War: To Whom does Kashmir Belong? ........................... 81 The Rann of Kutch: Successful De-escalation and Settlement................................ 88 Kashmir Again: The Second War, 1965 94 1971: War and the Creation of Bangladesh . 98 The Crisis of 1990: Timely De-escalation. 106 IV. THE FIRST WAR: KASHMIR, 1947 112 Third Party Nature and Characteristics . 118 Third Party Roles and Strategies...............122 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party having the Capacity to Aid in Settling Crisis. 125 Perception by Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness ............................ 125 Structures and Processes of Communication . 126 Other Independent Variables ................ 131 Dependent Variable: War and Ceasefire - Settlement Fails ............................ 136 V. THE RANN OF KUTCH: SUCCESSFUL SETTLEMENT 141 Third Party Nature and Characteristics .... 142 Third Party Roles and Strategies ............ 149 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party having the Capacity to Aid in Settling Crises...............................157 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness ........................... 158 Structures and Processes of Communication . 159 Other Independent Variables ................ 165 Dependent Variable: Successful Settlement . 169 VI. KASHMIR AGAIN: THE SECOND WAR, 1965 174 Third Party Nature and Characteristics .... 176 Third Party Roles and Strategies ............ 182 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party having the Capacity to Settle Crises ........ 190 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness ............................ 191 Structures and Processes of Communication . 193 Other Independent Variables ................ 198 vi Dependent Variable: Ceasefire - Failure of Settlement................................... 199 VII. 1971: WAR AND THE CREATION OF BANGLADESH 205 Third Party Nature and Characteristics . 207 Third Party Roles and Strategies .......... 215 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Parties having the Capacity to Aid in Settling Crises .221 Perception of Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness........................ 223 Structures and Processes of Communication . 225 Other Independent Variables ................ 231 Dependent Variable: War and the Acceptance of Ceasefire - Failure of Settlement .......... 234 VIII. THE CRISIS OF 1990: TIMELY DE-ESCALATION 239 Third Party Nature and Characteristics .... 241 Third Party Roles and Strategies ............ 246 Perception by Conflicting Actors of Third Parties having the Capacity to Aid in Settling C r i s e s .................................... 251 Perception by Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness...................... 252 Structures and Processes of Communication between Conflicting Actors .................. 252 Other Independent Variables ................ 260 Dependent Variable: Successful Settlement . 265 IX. THE RESULTS: A COMPARISON 270 Third Party Characteristics ................ 272 Third Party Strategies .................... 280 Perception by Conflicting Actors of Third Parties having the Capacity to Aid in Settling C r i s e s ....................................... 292 Perception by Conflicting Actors of Third Party Even-handedness........................ 292 Communication Structures and Processes . 295 Other Independent Variables ................ 303 Outcomes: Settlement Failures and Successes . 309 The Essence of the Conflict ................ 312 Does Foundation Building Matter? How? .... 314 Foundation Building - A Revised Model .... 316 Foundation Building and Prenegotiations: A Return to the Beginning.................... 3 20 vii Foundation Building: Generalizing to Other Contexts..................................323 APPENDIX A: LIST OF INTERVIEWEES 326 APPENDIX B: QUESTIONNAIRE 328 BIBLIOGRAPHY 330 viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 3.1 Chronology of Events, The War of 1947 ......... 87 3.2 Chronology of Events, The Rann of Kutch .... 93 3.3 Chronology of Events, The Second War over Kashmir.97 3.4 Chronology of Events, The War of 1 9 7 1 ........... 105 3.5 Chronology of Events, The Crisis of 1990 .... Ill 4.1 Bilateral Assistance (to India by Great Britain, to Pakistan by Great Britain) ................ 118 4.2 Bilateral Trade (India and Great Britain, Pakistan and Great Britain) .................. 119 4.3 Number of Messages Sent by Pakistan to India through Indirect Channels .......................127 4.4 Number of Messages Sent by Pakistan to India through Direct Channels .........................128 4.5 Number of Messages Sent by India to Pakistan through Indirect Channels .................... 128 4.6 Number of Messages