ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 27 APRIL 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

ELECTION VIOLENCE PREDICTED FOR SECOND ROUND

It is all or nothing for the ZANU-PF regime, whose past record shows it is grimly determined to hold onto power.

By Meshack Ndodana in Harare

With a run-off between Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai looking increasingly likely, there are signs that the Zimbabwean regime will launch a crackdown to ensure victory for the incumbent at all costs.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, is dragging its feet on announcing

the official result of the presidential Credit: Lazele ballot, although it has said that A policeman checks the sealing of ballot boxes at Harare North polling station. Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Picture taken March 29. Change, MDC, won the parliamentary election also held on March 29. figures, neither of the top two Tsvangirai’s MDC faction — the bigger Although the MDC has claimed candidates will be awarded over 50 of two that contested the elections — outright victory, most observers think per cent of the vote, requiring them to initially said that it would take part in a that when the ZEC announces the final contest a second round. second round, but changed its mind

NEWS IN BRIEF

The High Court ruled on April 8 that The ZEC announced on April 5 that opposition and miscounting votes in the opposition Movement for ZANU-PF had won half the seats in order to rob President Robert Democratic Change, MDC, could the Senate, the upper house of Mugabe of victory in the presidential pursue its legal action to force the parliament. The opposition took the election held on March 29. Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, rest, with Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC to release the result of the March 29 faction winning 24 and the other White farmers said that since it was presidential election. The ZEC had MDC grouping, led by Arthur announced that ZANU-PF lost the argued that the court had no Mutambara, with the remaining six. parliamentary election, a fresh wave mandate to rule on the matter. In the House of Assembly, the ZEC of invasions of white-owned announced earlier that Tsvangirai’s commercial farms had started. Politically motivated violence is MDC got 99 of the 210 seats, ZANU- resurfacing in rural Zimbabwe, with PF 97, and Mutambara’s faction ten. The Catholic Commission for Justice reports on April 7 that war veterans and Peace has joined the domestic and ZANU-PF party militia have Zimbabwean police arrested a and international community in unleashed violence in three districts number of election officers, accusing urging the ZEC to release the results in the south of the country. them of conniving with the of the presidential election.

APRIL 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING after reports emerged that pro- A member of the party’s governing am not the only one who has killed. Mugabe war veterans, youth militia body or politburo told IWPR that Who will protect us if Tsvangirai comes and armed forces had been deployed ZANU-PF did not trust Tsvangirai, not into power? We are not going to let in rural areas. least because they feared he would him win. Mugabe is going to continue take away the farms awarded to many ruling this country,” he said. Now it says that in order to protect regime insiders by Mugabe’s 2000 Zimbabweans from a wave of political land reform, in which white farmers The performance of both Mugabe and violence, it will boycott a run-off vote were forcibly dispossessed. ZANU-PF, scoring more than 40 per unless the United Nations is invited in cent of the 2.4 million votes cast on to observe the elections. The politburo member said Tsvangirai March 29, belies the expectations of might also sanction the prosecution of some who expected voter support for Tsvangirai warned journalists that Mugabe and others named as the regime to collapse because of the ZANU-PF would use violence to culpable in the “Gukurahundi” killings unprecedented economic decline that ensure victory for Mugabe. of the Eighties, in which Mugabe’s has left the country with the world’s military stand accused of murdering highest inflation rate. “ZANU-PF is preparing a war on the large numbers of civilians in a bid to people such as we saw in 2000 and eliminate political opposition in the Since life is close to unbearable for 2002 [elections]. The run-off is thus a Matabeleland and Midland regions. many Zimbabweans, it might seem ‘run-over’ of the people,” he said. “I, strange that Mugabe should still get so Morgan Tsvangirai, the legitimate “Unfortunately, no matter what many votes. winner of this election will not Tsvangirai says about guaranteeing participate in the run-off. If President President Mugabe’s safety, we just Mugabe thinks he can bulldoze his cannot trust the man,” said the ZANU- way into a further era of illegitimacy, PF insider. “So if one day he gets a call ZANU-PF fears Mugabe then history will judge.” from [British prime minister] Gordon could face prosecution Brown or [United States president] under a new regime. George Bush and is told to arrest Mugabe, do you think he won’t do that MDC to boycott election and will say, ‘I gave him my word’? re-run unless United Obviously not.” However, Zimbabwean politics run Nations observers are deep, and calls for a fresh start are allowed in. The politburo member was referring to only part of the picture. The present Mugabe’s oft-stated view that Britain political environment cannot be and the US are to blame for divorced from the role of ZANU-PF, Zimbabwe’s problems. Statements by and Mugabe personally, in the 1970s The consequences of a second Bush and Brown that Mugabe must war of liberation and in the violence of election surrounded by violence step down have merely made him the post-independence years. Many would be dire, said the opposition more determined to win the run-off. people, particularly the younger leader, who predicted, “A run-off will generation, underestimate the effect of polarise and traumatise this country. “If he loses, then Mugabe would have Mugabe’s credentials on rural voters. The country does not need another lost to the British and the Americans war.” and to quote him, ‘never, never, ever, In the Seventies, ZANU’s armed wing, ever’ will we let that happen,” said the the Zimbabwe African National Tapiwa Mashakada, a senior MDC politburo member. Liberation Army, ZANLA, left a deep official, told IWPR that his party would imprint on the ethnic Shona provinces not help legitimise Mugabe by taking He concluded by warning, “We will from which it operated, and still affects part in a second round. protect our president and ensure that voting patterns there. Tsvangirai does not go anywhere near “We are not going to expose our State House.” “The legacy of the liberation struggle people to violence. A run-off is going has left a deeper memory in rural to be bloody, and we are going to see A former guerrilla from the 1970s war areas than in urban areas,” said some of the worst violence ever. We of liberation admitted to IWPR that he Sabelo J. Ndlovu-Gatsheni of the will only participate if a United Nations had committed murder during an Ferguson Centre for African and Asian observer mission is invited to monitor earlier election campaign, and insisted Studies at the Open University in the elections,” said Mashakada. that war veterans would never let Britain. “Memory of a rural guerrilla is Tsvangirai take over. in fact a memory of ZANU as an With the parliamentary election emancipatory force. This memory will handed to their opponents, ZANU-PF This man feared a Tsvangirai victory take time to pass from peasant officials have everything to lose if might lead to retribution against consciousness. ZANU is reaping Mugabe fails to win a new term. people like him. “I have killed, and I dividends from this consciousness.”

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Ndlovu-Gatsheni explained how during the insurgency, “ZANU imbibed DON’T UNDERESTIMATE Maoist mobilisation strategies of the ‘fish and water’ type — the rural peasants became the sea within MUGABE’S RESILIENCE which ZANLA forces played their politics”.

The post-independence period saw the mass killings of the Gukurahundi campaign, conducted in ethnic Ndebele areas, and later on, violence used during the seizure of white- owned farms and in the election campaigns of 2000 and 2002.

The people involved in past violent action to uphold ZANU-PF’s rule have so far enjoyed impunity, and can be expected to do what they can to ensure Mugabe stays their president.

Pre-election violence was notably lacking ahead of the first round, and the MDC was able to penetrate

constituencies seen as no-go areas. In Credit: Lazele the southern Masvingo province, for People queue for bread beside Mugabe campaign posters. Picture taken March 28. instance, the MDC won more than half of the parliamentary seats; it won an absolute majority in Manicaland and Reports of President Robert would mean neither man had an also snatched some rural Mugabe’s imminent absolute majority so that they would constituencies in the ZANU-PF political demise may be have to contest a run-off. strongholds of Mashonaland East and West and the Midlands. exaggerated. Jonathan Moyo, a former information minister who is now an independent Many fear Mugabe will not allow this By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare member of parliament, estimated to happen again. The deployment of that Tsvangirai is likely to get 49.4 or ZANU-PF militants and war veterans 49.5 per cent of the vote, followed to secure victory would raise the Although the result of Zimbabwe’s by Mugabe with 42.5 or 42.6 per prospect of violent clashes with presidential election is still unknown, it cent. defiant MDC supporters. is clear that President Robert Mugabe still commands a substantial share of With the ZEC stalling on its Despite these fears, some ordinary the vote — confounding predictions announcement, there are fears that voters told IWPR that the MDC should that his support would crumble away Mugabe’s officials are engaged in a go into the run-off because people entirely amid growing resentment at last-minute attempt to fix the result in would come out in large numbers to the dire state of the country. his favour. vote against him. As the Zimbabwe Electoral Moyo, however, dismissed allegations “I hope the MDC won’t let us down by Commission, ZEC, continues to of vote-rigging, saying this would be refusing to contest the run-off,” said withhold the final figures from the difficult to arrange and the final result Harare resident Mary Musodzi. “I can March 29 ballot, Morgan Tsvangirai of was likely to reflect the true situation. tell you that Zimbabweans, who all this the main faction of the Movement for time thought it was impossible to beat Democratic Change, MDC, has But even by the MDC’s count, Mugabe Mugabe, now realise that people can claimed victory with over 50 per cent. has scored upwards of 40 per cent of actually vote him out. Those that did the vote. not vote will go and vote, and Mugabe A source in the ZEC and a member of will lose badly in the second round.” the ruling ZANU-PF party’s politburo The results of the parliamentary member both told IWPR that Mugabe election held the same day as the Meshack Ndodana is the pseudonym could get up to 45 per cent and presidential ballot have been released, of a reporter in Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai about 48 per cent. This and show that ZANU-PF got 97 of the

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210 seats in the lower House of That was the case in Zambia, where celebrate,” he said. “I am sorry to Assembly, two less than the 99 won by the United National Independence pour water on your celebratory Tsvangirai’s MDC. Party lost a 1991 election and has mood.” performed dismally since then. The Even adding in the ten seats won by same happened in Malawi, where Pondai Bamu, a Zimbabwean the other MDC faction led by Arthur Kamuzu Banda’s Malawi Congress academic at the Transitional Justice Mutambara and assuming the two Party never bounced back from its Institute at the University of Ulster, groups would cooperate on legislative 1994 defeat, and in Zambia, where Belfast, gave a similar assessment matters, the opposition would still not President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia prior to the elections. have the two-thirds majority needed to lost to former trade unionist Frederick pass the constitutional changes seen Chiluba in 1991. by many as central to political change in Zimbabwe. Yet in Zimbabwe, there are clearly still Significant numbers of significant numbers of people who still people still support support Mugabe and believe his Mugabe and believe his achievements outweigh his failings. Even though the MDC won They believe his rhetoric that the West rhetoric. most seats in parliament, it is to blame for Zimbabwe’s problems does not have enough to and point to his role as liberator and push through constitutional now defender of the national interest, change. high literacy levels, and land reforms “The problem with commentators on that were ostensibly intended to Zimbabwean politics is that we have improve livelihoods. tended to think with our emotions and so we speak with little These results reflect the constituency- If there is blame to be apportioned, objectivity,” he predicted. “After based system used for the these people look to Mugabe’s March 29, a lot of us will be very parliamentary election. The continuing entourage, whom they hold disappointed because what we strength of ZANU-PF is reflected in the responsible for systemic corruption hoped would happen will not have raw numbers, which suggest it actually and inefficiency. happened. Frankly speaking, won more votes overall than Morgan Tsvangirai will not be able to Tsvangirai’s MDC — 45.94 compared This group of voters is mistrustful of command the majority to become with 42.9 per cent. Tsvangirai, and suspects, for example president.” that he is sympathetic to the white Turnout was disappointing; of the 5.9 farmers dispossessed by Mugabe’s The ZANU-PF politburo member told million registered voters, only 2.4 2000 forcible land redistribution, and IWPR that his party was ready for a million actually took part in the might seek to restore their property if presidential run-off and still believed election. he were elected. Mugabe could win.

Mugabe’s opponents see him as a For Mugabe allies in ZANU-PF, this He said people should not hero-turned-dictator whose policies close-run election amounts to a sort of underestimate the ruling party’s have led to economic collapse over victory against arch-enemies Britain ability to patch up internal the last ten years and whose record on and the United States, in that the differences and unite in the face of human rights and political freedom is results at least show that Mugabe is its greatest ever challenge. What abysmal. They say he has manifestly not as unpopular as some thought and was at stake here, he said, was failed to address massive problems the ballot has not been a walkover for political survival, not just for the such as rising poverty and hunger, Tsvangirai. president but for ZANU-PF itself, corruption, bad governance, and high which did not want to go down like mortality rates as the health system Political analysts say neither ZANU-PF other liberation movements that lost collapses and HIV/AIDS grows. nor Mugabe should be elections. underestimated. The president has For some of Mugabe’s critics, it is proved remarkably resilient despite “We believe that we can cover the enough that ZANU-PF has been frequent predictions of his imminent gap,” said the politburo member. pushed aside as the governing party demise. “President Mugabe is not yet down and that he has either lost or been and out until Tsvangirai beats him with forced into a second round. These Analyst Brian Kagoro suggested that the required 50 per cent-plus. He will setbacks are reminiscent of the the MDC would do well to put its never give up even if it means a third experience of other African liberation declaration of victory on hold. or fourth round.” movements which overstayed their time in power and never recovered “It’s not over until it’s over. I am not Nonthando Bhebhe is the pseudonym after performing poorly in elections. celebrating. There is nothing yet to of a reporter in Zimbabwe.

4 ISSUE 27 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS WORLD PRESS APPEAL TO ZIMBABWE NEIGHBOURS

US and UK media say countries in the region should pressure Mugabe to accept election results.

By Erica Beinlich in London

As Zimbabwe awaits the outcome of the March 29 presidential election, influential international media have called on neighbouring countries to ensure that the will of the people is respected.

Since the joint elections took place, opinion pieces published in leading US and the UK newspapers have pressed southern African states to do Credit: Lazele what they can to ensure ballot results Observer from the Southern African Development Community SADC at a polling station are properly processed and adhered in Harare. Picture taken March 29. to, so that votes for change in Zimbabwe were not cast in vain. upheld,” said The Independent on April another entrenchment by Mr Mugabe, Although official results from the 1. “The vote in Zimbabwe has already the disgrace will be theirs”. presidential poll have yet to be been recorded loudly.” announced, the Movement for The results, it said, will reflect on the Democratic Change, MDC, has Mugabe may have got away with whole of Africa and affect its standing already claimed victory. rigging the last two elections in 2002 in the world. and 2005, but this time, it seems, his defeat is so overwhelming that it would “At stake for Africa is the credibility of be hard for him to manipulate his way its institutions and their commitment to “The leaders of out of trouble. the rule of law,” said the Financial neighbouring African Times on March 31. countries must now make “Whether Mr Mugabe succeeds in clear that the will of the imposing fraudulent election results Zimbabwean people must will depend on whether other governments in southern Africa… SADC members face be upheld” resolve, at least, to do something “disgrace” if they tolerate — The Independent. about the situation,” agreed the election fraud Washington Post, in an editorial on — Washington Post. April 1.

According to the Zimbabwe Election If the incumbent president were to Commission, the main faction of the refuse to accept defeat, the South The responsibility for ensuring fairness MDC won a majority of seats in African Development Committee, falls squarely on two men, said the parliamentary elections held on the SADC, charged with overseeing the Times of London on March 31 — South same day, with 99 seats, while the elections, could probably pressure him African president Thabo Mbeki and ruling party, ZANU-PF, took just 97. into backing down by threatening him British Foreign Secretary David Miliband. with isolation, it said. “The leaders of neighbouring African According to the opinion piece, the countries must now make clear that the But, the Post warns, “if [SADC South African president must will of the Zimbabwean people must be members] tolerate another fraud and communicate to the rest of Africa

APRIL 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING whether the election results were urged Britain “to help the shattered convinced the transition will occur “plausible or whether they are a country more actively than it has done smoothly. “Mr Mugabe will probably product of shameless manipulation”. so far — and it will have no excuse for declare himself the victor despite the not doing so”. results,” he wrote. “But he will now have to contend with a different The Los Angeles Times on April 2 nation.” South African president agreed that Zimbabwe urgently required outside assistance. “Whether Thabo Mbeki must tell the Mugabe departs gracefully or dies in rest of the continent office years from now, Zimbabwe will whether election results need international help to end the “All the stuffed ballot were “plausible or whether culture of kleptocracy and to learn boxes in the world may not they are a product of from bitter experience how better to drown out Saturday’s cry of govern itself,” it said. shameless manipulation” rage” — Simon Tisdall in The Guardian. — Financial Times. Not only must the international community help Zimbabwe get out of this situation because it is the right thing to do, but also because it had a The SADC tasked Mbeki with hand in getting the country to this In the “Comment Is Free” section of overseeing talks between the MDC point in the first place, said Business The Guardian on March 31, Simon and ZANU-PF in an attempt to resolve Daily Africa, in an apparent reference Tisdall outlined Mugabe’s possible the political and economic crisis in to the legacy of colonialism. options when the results are Zimbabwe. However, the MDC announced — from stepping down claimed talks collapsed after Mugabe Regardless of who has played a role in peacefully to imposing martial law in a announced the March 29 date for plunging Zimbabwe into its current “Musharraf gambit”, a reference to elections, without introducing reforms state, other editorials said that the Pakistan’s current president. the opposition had called for. results of March 29 will mark a significant change in the country — Yet “all the stuffed ballot boxes in the Rigged elections in Zimbabwe could brought on by Zimbabweans world may not drown out Saturday’s do further damage to South Africa’s themselves. cry of rage”, he wrote. “Zimbabwe’s diplomatic reputation, following the political fundamentals changed failure of the talks, said the article. Basildon Peta, in a column in The irrevocably this weekend.” Independent on March 31, wrote that But regardless of the election results, while he is sure that Mugabe’s reign is Erica Beinlich is an IWPR reporter in Times columnist Bronwen Maddox finally coming to an end, he is not London.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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