SPECIAL REPORT

Ecuador gets into the electoral scene with a view to 2017

Quito, January 2013

BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO salta a la escena electoral con miras a 2017

1. INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION 2. THE REVOLUTION IS STILL UNFINISHED The political, social and economic future of Ecuador for the next 3. ELECTORAL MACHINERY: four years (2013-2017) will be decided by voters on 17 February THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR 2013. The country is undergoing a new electoral process that will RESOURCES conclude with the appointment of the President and Vice President 4. AN OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY of the Republic, 134 lawmakers (national, regional and migrant) and 5. CONCLUSION five representatives for the Andean Parliament. AUTHORS Pre-electoral panorama points to the re-election of the current Head Llorente & cuenca of State, Mr. , as he stands as the strongest figure with greater leadership in comparison to its seven contenders. If forecasts are right, Correa would consolidate his position as the president with longer consecutive tenure, although he already achieved a record on 15 January 2013: six years in power without a break.

What about the other seven contenders? They all have an official opposition to the current Government, even Alberto Acosta, who seven years ago was one of the ideologues of the called “citizens’ revolution”. However, opposition in Ecuador is still unfocussed, with individual agendas and interests, whose sole point of convergence is to criticize economic and social policies of Correa’s regime.

The electoral campaign started with that outlook on January 4, and it will last up to 14 February 2013. Thus far, figures reveal that Rafael Correa-Jorge Glas pairing is widely leading voting intention. According to Cedatos, this political pairing gathers 55.7% of voters’ intention, followed by -Juan Carlos Solines pairing with 22.8%, while on third place appears the blank vote. If the trend continues, Correa’s re-election will only need the first round, as happened in 2009.

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THE REVOLUTION IS STILL such as the signing of public UNFINISHED contracts with companies linked to Correa’s brother, There has been five areas of action accusations of overpricing that have determined the called ambulances before purchasing “citizens’ revolution”, led by the them and contributions to President, Rafael Correa, since the Ministry of Public Health. the beginning of his Government The last scandal comes from in January 2007. However, none the multi-million credit to of these areas have reached their the Argentinian Gastón Duzac climax in six years. A review of the by Cofiec, a seized bank Regime’s debt with the country is that is also managed by the presented below: State, since one of the major accomplices would be Pedro • Constitutional revolution: Delgado, Correa’s cousin that This area has two readings. was ousted of the Government One is intended to assert after admitting that he has that institutional revolution faked its university degree. is based on the approval of a new Constitution in 2008, None of these cases have been underpinned by the good investigated in depth nor living ideas. cleared up. The Government has come out well by pointing The second demonstrates out that accusations are instead that the Constitution derived from the “media of the citizens’ revolution is lynching” against the State not completely tangible for that the corrupted press has Ecuadorians yet, given that orchestrated by using all its there are still laws awaiting communication equipment passage, such as the ones (State media, national related with Water Resources, channels, advertising…) to Lands and Cultures, which are warn that former governments vital to make the constitutional (also) registered high rates of principles a reality since they corruption. give rights to nature, tend to an equitable distribution of However, the great milestone private property and ensure in fighting corruption has cultural rights of citizens. But taken place in the last 18 these are only a few examples. month with the called “metida de mano en la justicia” ‒ • Fight against corruption: It handling the justice‒. In May is one of the most questioned 2010, Ecuadorians approved topics of the “citizens’ by Referendum the creation revolution”. The self-named of a Transitional Judiciary Government of clear hands, Council (whose members Rafael Correa stands up as the only leader for the citizen’s revolution. Thus far, Alianza País, his lucid minds and burning hearts were appointed by three political party, has appointed no successor. has left a mark of its scandalous powers of the State) to reform corruption internal activities, the whole system of justice

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through, for instance, the the country may receive the abolition of bureaucratic greatest percentage of product processes and the dismissal generated by this market and of judges lowering resolutions launching the tender procedure or allowing the expiration of for 16 oil blocs to carry out protective measures. exploration activities.

The main objective: reducing Nevertheless, the major criminal rates by implementing pending issue is the signing of a more efficient judicial large-scale mining contracts. system. Now, 18 months later, In 2012 only one agreement thanks to an investment of was reached with the Chinese about USD 300 million made company, Ecuacorriente, but only in 2012, the judicial sector important companies like has modern facilities and Kinross are on the waiting informatics systems. According list. The current political to polls, instability remains panorama does not help “I’m going to handle as the first cause for concern the Government to sign a justice, but only for the among the citizenry. new mining contract, due sake of the people” to the likely demonstrations • Economic revolution: It has by the indigenous and been promoted the popular environmentalist sectors. Rafael Correa and solidarity-based economy (micro-entrepreneurs, non- Finally, the great debt is in the official traders and artisans) agricultural sector. The regime through performing credits has not fulfilled expectations like 5-5-5 (up to USD 5 of re-distribution of lands nor thousand, a term of five activation of unproductive years at 5% interest), but at lands offered from the the same time, this effort has electoral campaign of 2006. been clouded by the increase Added to this are the problems of the Human Development that productive and export Voucher (BDH) from USD 35 to sectors of rice, corn and USD 50 since 2013, given that banana are undergoing, due this grant does not promotes to the impossibility of fixing citizens’ productivity aiming prices that satisfy all the value at generating sustainable chain and also due to the pests employment. in vegetable crops, which have caused massive losses in the Furthermore, the discourse of agricultural field. the economic revolution has focused on the exploitation • Education and health of natural resources and the revolution: Despite this promotion of agricultural Government has registered production. In the first case, the greatest allocation in the change in the model of oil- education and health sector in contracts was a success for the Ecuador’s history, the results State: providing services so that are not satisfactory yet.

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The lack of State’s planning, • Rescue of dignity, and the little trust in public sovereignty and search for services by users, have Latin American integration: hindered the development It is the fifth pillar of “citizens’ of this two pillars. However, revolution”. Actions and it should be recognized that outcomes: the agreement with both the education and health US by which that country had system have considerably a military base in the coastal changed, particularly regarding city of Mantal has terminated, infrastructures, due to the Ecuador joined the ALBA bloc, technological endowment and searched for closing relations improvement. with Iran, the relations with the International Monetary In this sense, in the public Fund has been set aside health field, it is worth to have as main creditors mention the recruitment of Chinese banks and investors, doctors working full time and important investments (8 hours per day) in State’s with in terms of hospitals, while in the basic oil refineries and waterworks education field it has been set have been negotiated. the obligation for teachers to work full time, and not five-six The pending topic is hours per day as in the past. achieving that The evaluation to universities accepts the proposal of is other milestone of the creating a body parallel to education revolution, whose the Organization of American purpose was the closure of 14 States (OAE) that, according educational establishments to Mr. Correa, ensures that did not meet quality sovereignty of countries, by The relations that Correa’s Government standards required: not excluding countries like has promoted with Iran have been the most infrastructure, libraries, from leaders’ summits, questioned by the international community. The picture captures the visit of the President investigation, teaching staff... which the President of of Iran, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ecuador will not attend as long as the Caribbean island is not invited. CAMPAIGN MACHINE: THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR RESOURCES

Eight pairings will participate in elections on 17 February 2013. The electoral campaign officially had begun on January 4, although it was since October, when candidatures were defined, when participants have started their tour around the 24 provinces in

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order to announce their proposals figure: Lenín Moreno, the and gain new followers. However, current Vice President, the majority of approaches had who was even worthy of a focused to criticize practices nomination for the Nobel developed by Rafael Correa’s Peace Prize due to his social Government between 2007 and work in favor of people with 2012. Among the most recurrent special needs. However, he criticized practices are, for has decided to withdraw instance, the defense of freedom from politics, leaving Jorge of expression and press, the cut in Glas as successor, who once tax burden and the decision of not in Government will manage exploiting mining resources. policies related to strategic sectors in Ecuador (oil and Furthermore, there are the mining, mostly). candidatures for occupying 134 seats in the National Assembly The communication power of where the Government expects to the current Government has consolidate a majority to pass the provoked the enhancement laws required for implementing of works carried out by its economic and social policies. the Regime in the last few The truth is that nowadays the months through, for example, governing party, Alianza País, has broadcasting up to one hour no longer a substantial majority, the inauguration of a center but it is “the greatest minority”, to reinforce citizens’ security as it has self-named it, since in the control in Quito (ECU 911). last four years it had to negotiate Thanks to resources like this, to carry out its plans with minor we have known in advance legislative blocs (variable majority) that, if Mr. Rafael Correa that occasionally contribute to reaches once again the reach its goals. In light of the power, he will aim, among above, electoral analysis point that other issues, to: the governing party wouldn’t reach a wide parliamentary majority »» Diversify productivity to either in next elections; it should come out of dependency therefore strengthen its capacity on raw materials exports. for negotiating. »» Control monopolies. »» Go further on lands re- An overview of the electoral distribution and sustainable proposals of the eight presidential agricultural productivity. pairings is presented below: »» Ensure universal access to education and permanence • . Rafael Correa – Jorge of children and youth Glas: “We already have a within the system. President, we have Rafael” »» Provide universal access is its slogan. This pairing to health, education, These are the fifth candidates for the presidency in top positions in Ecuador voters’ intention polls: have had to dismiss the most integration and social Rafael Correa, Guillermo Lasso, Lucio Gutiérrez, charismatic and cherished security. Alberto Acosta and Álvaro Noboa. (even by the opposing ones) »» Democratize, diversify

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and regulate mass media had lost their money, so many to ensure full freedom of had died from depression and expression. others (millions) had been »» Delve into the political forced to emigrate to United strategy to consolidate States and Europe, with the Yasuní-ITT Initiative and, resulting family breakdown. thus maintaining the The Association of Private crude oil underground. Banks of Ecuador have also used economic resources to Those are some of the support this sector through proposals by the governing publicity pointing out that pairing that, according to the the banks that were guilty latest data by Cedatos, has of the crisis no longer exist, “A different Ecuador is 55.7% of voters’ intention. and that bankers causing it possible” is the slogan are no longer in the country. of Guillermo Lasso and • Guillermo Lasso – Juan Anyway, the proposals of the Car¬los Solines: The Lasso-Solines pairing are the his political movement — candidate comes from the following: CREO— for the campaign banking sector. He was the for the presidency” executive director of the Bank »» Ensure universal access to of , the second- health. biggest bank of Ecuador, until »» Create incentives for mid-2012. Within the electoral generating social housing. frame, his career as a banker »» Promote youth integration served him to promote an in labor markets. intense advertising campaign »» Simplify procedures for of that bank during the last starting and managing a year to publicize himself and business. his most important work: »» Promote the opening “El Banco del Barrio”, an of new markets for initiative that turned grocers Ecuadorian goods and and small traders into small services. “bankers”, including this »» Foster trade agreements profession, highly criticized in that serve national Ecuador since the economic interests. crisis underwent in 1999 and »» Reduce tax costs for 2000, in people’s economy. importing and exporting.

However, this point in favor has Since 4 January 2013, Lasso represented also his biggest and Solines are dedicated weakness, as the current to disseminate a work Government has served of proposal each day. That is, this situation to remind the on February14, the last day country —through advertising of the electoral campaign, and national channels— that they will offer the proposal as a consequence of the number 45. Thus far, this banking fraud of the last pairing ranks the second in century, many Ecuadorians Ecuadorians’ intention to

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vote with 22.8%, according country those who have to Cedatos. criminal records. »» Raise salaries and wages • Lucio Gutiérrez – Pearl in a fair manner for Ann Boyes: Lucio Gutiérrez everybody. intends to reach the »» Re-open closed universities presidency for the second that meet minimum time, and his fundamental requirements. premise is not to repeat »» Raise the Human past mistakes when, as a Development Voucher consequence of corruption to USD 65. and nepotism of his »» Re-open the media which first legislature, he was are closed. overthrown in April 2005 by a citizen’s revolt called “the • Alberto Acosta – Marcia rebellion of the forajidos”. Caicedo: The leader of This pairing, according to the called Coordinadora polls by Cedatos, is in third Plurinacional de Izquierda, place of voters’ intention that has gathered left- with 8.8%, and propose in wing parties such as campaign the following: the Movimiento Popular Democrático and »» Eliminate taxes- Pachakutik, has its origins in »» Eliminate waste and the “citizens’ revolution”, overprice in public works. of which was one of its »» Provide low-cost main ideologues. He was productive credits. President of the Constituent »» Request visa to Assembly in 2008, but when foreigners in order to the constitutional reform avoid that criminals, process concluded, he hitmen and drug dealers announced his withdrawal In March 2012, Ecuador signed the first large- enter freely to Ecuador. from Correa’s Government, scale mining contract with the Chinese company, Ecuacorriente, to exploit the resources of the »» Conduct a national which apparently had moved Mirador’s project, located in Zamora Chinchipe, in census for foreigners, to the right. the Amazon. and expel from the Alberto Acosta is radical regarding the oil and mining exploitation and the access of international companies in Ecuador. His fundamental precepts are opposed to large-scale mining, which, additionally, is one of the most important projects that Correa’s Government has at economic level. The proposals of the pairing Acosta-Salcedo are the following:

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»» Audit every oil, mining The pairing composed by contract and large- Alberto Acosta and Marcia scale projects to ensure Caicedo ranks, with these the compliance of proposals, fourth in voters’ constitutional mandates. intention with 8.2%, according »» Develop a sovereign to latest polls by Cedatos. economy and society based on food, energy, finances, • Álvaro Noboa – Anabella culture and technology. Azín: In 2013 the richest »» Generate mechanism to man of the country tries for enhance rights and care of the fifth time to reach the migrants. presidency of the Republic. »» Promote Latin American In this occasion, Álvaro integration and unity. Noboa, banana magnate of »» Equitable distribution Guayaquil, chose his wife of radio spectrum —Anabella Azín— as his frequencies. pairing, a fact that has been »» Massive and permanent criticized by public opinion. national campaign for The charity (giving food, computer literacy. mattress...) is once again the »» Ensure social justice as the common denominator of his basis of citizens’ security, electoral campaign, in which overcoming hunger, he appears closer to people, marginality, unemployment more vulnerable when and poverty. carrying quintals of potatoes »» Foster public and private or sugar on his back, food that business endeavors that he gives to people with poor Álvaro Noboa, a businessman from Guayaquil, has presented his candidature for the presidency for allow developing clean economic resources. In his the fifth time. Charity is, once again, a key point technologies. fifth electoral participation, in his campaign. Mr. Noboa ranks fifth in voters’ intention with 3%, according the company Perfiles de Opinión. His main proposals are the following:

»» Prioritize investment in health, education, mass transport, environmental sanitation and security. »» Transform universities into a center for research and development. »» Exploit the touristic field in Ecuador. »» Establish legal standards to ensure investment and clear rules to tax payment.

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»» Conduct evaluations to • Mauricio Rodas – Inés public employees. Manzano: Mauricio Rodas »» People deprived of their was the founder of Efthos freedom should work to Foundation, in Mexico. It have incomes for their is considered an eminently maintenance. theoretical politician. He appeared in Ecuador’s public • Nelson Zavala – Denis scene in 2008, when he was Ceva¬llos: Nelson Zavala is the promoting a strong “No” successor of the senior leader campaign to Referendum of the Partido Roldo¬sista in which Montecristi Ecuatoriano (PRE), Abdalá Constitution was approved. Bucaram, because after 17 From then on, he has opposed years having been overthrown to Correa’s Government given that a mental disability on issues such as freedom to be the President was argued of press and expression. in the National Congress. He This pairing, that has 1% of is an evangelical preacher, Ecuador voters’ intention, and since his candidature proposes the following: “Even people with was announced, he has been such propensity (to strongly criticized due to his »» Eradicate poverty homosexuality), that in opposition to GLBTI groups. and generate equal An overview of his proposals is opportunities for all the my opinion as well as in presented below: Ecuadorians. the eyes of God is wrong, »» Create quality employment come from heterosexual »» Modernize the productive and provoke a productive families” machine of Ecuador by leap of economy. fostering science and »» Promote national and modern productive foreign investment. Nelson Zavala, PRE’s techniques. »» Encourage international candidate »» Create the Ministry of Poor. relations with all the »» Boost oil and energy countries of the world sectors, by promoting and compliance with the construction of more international treaties and hydropower plants. commitments. »» Establish a plan for »» Create an effective first popular housing to reduce job program that benefits housing shortage. youth between the age of »» Deliver school bag. 15 and 30. »» Develop science and »» Create a crime prevention technology in the policy. agricultural sector. Voters’ intention for this Current voters’ intention for presidential pairing is under the Zavala-Cevallos pairing is 1%, according to the pollster less than 1%. Perfiles de Opinión.

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• Norman Wray – Ángela the financial system. Mendoza: He comes from »» Provide public services the political movement directly and efficiently in Ruptura. Norman Wray and territories. his party was ally of Correa’s Government until the first half of 2011. His separation from AN OVERVIEW OF THE the current Government was ECONOMY the result from the proposal of the Referendum, which The country’s economic propitiated the “handling” in development is one of the main the judicial sector. Ruptura concerns when talking about gathers left-wing intellectual Ecuador in 2017. Economic young politicians. Polls analysts hold that, in the case conducted by Perfiles de that Mr. Rafael Correa won once Opinión reveal that this pairing again, the economic policy would has less than 1% of voters’ continue in the same line, based on intention. It is expected that the increase in demand pushed by this party proves its political public expenditure. It means that influence in the National the economy will continue to grow Assembly, since it has strong thanks to resources that the State well-positioned candidates may invest in. For this purpose, at national level, like Paco it will try to generate more Moncayo and María Paula resources through oil, mining and Romo. The proposals they tax burden, that is, deepening in make are the following: extracting policies, which is what sustains public works funding. »» Fully exert stewardship, control and management of Nevertheless, in the event that environmental resources. the right reached the power »» Define people’s (Guillermo Lasso or Álvaro Noboa), participation policies on economy experts forecast that the deciding the extraction first step would be reducing public and exploitation of natural expenditure, which may provoke resources, as well as the a destabilization of the economy income distribution. and a possible economic downturn. »» Mainstream policies and There would be cuts, especially, program agendas with in allocations for infrastructure initiatives that include projects (waterpower plants, the fight against family the Pacific Refinery, metro in violence, violence and Quito…), since they do not think sexual exploitation. that cuts would reach social »» Speed up the change in expenditure, due to the voting matrix energy as a high- and political weight. Yet, to offset impact measure. the investment in public works, a Three of the candidates for the presidency have »» Increase the level government of such characteristics been in the ranks of Correismo: Alberto Acosta of national saving to could opt for privatizing projects. (left) and Norman Wray (right). convey more trust to The third clearly-evidenced trend

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is the one led by Alberto Acosta, It should be added to this the whose agenda is channeled to avoid usual national channels and mining exploitation, which would Saturday programs in which also mean less tax incomes and the President makes a weekly less public expenditure. Moreover, account of his activities. Acosta has repeatedly insisted in tax elimination (as the right- • Up to now, there is a lack wing candidates) such as the Tax of contents in the electoral on the Remittance of Currencies. campaign. As usual, the However, if this happened, the candidates are travelling all most likely scenario —according over the country to greet to what experts have said— is voters, deliver calendars and that imports would rocket and flyers, but not necessarily to “In the event that the the balance of payments would explain their proposals. Against right reached the power, therefore destabilize, which would this, there is the fact that the first step would jeopardize the dollarization. the current Government can demonstrate the work that has be reducing public Nonetheless, the most likely to done during these last six years, expenditure” happen is that the economic model which somehow disadvantages already adopted by the President Correa’s contenders. continues. If so, economic analysts warn that a future growth cannot • The possibility that Rafael be expected, because the current Correa was elected in the first model is being exhausted. Evidence round is overwhelming. About of this is that the Government a month before elections, has not been able to reach the polls show that he has more growth registered in 2008, when than 50% of voters’ intention, public expenditure exceeded despite the scandal because of expectations. The formula to the falsification by his cousin, reach sustained growth will be Pedro Delgado, of the university then investing in the production degree and that it has been put machine and, the subsequent into doubt the way in which employment creation. Correa’s pairing, Jorge Glas, obtained his tertiary degree.

CONCLUSION • Once again, Ecuador’s electoral process proves that there is • Elections of 2013 had proven a lack of leadership in the once again the little room for country and that political competing that candidates for parties have little or no concern the presidency have against for preparing figures that can the President Rafael Correa relieve the current Government in terms of communication. and aim to hold political offices Since 2007, the Government to define democratically the maintains a constant flow economic and social path of of information by allocating Ecuador. There are no attempts about USD 12 million per year in that respect or, at least, have in governmental advertising. yet to be seen.

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Authors

Manuel Delgado is the Director of LLORENTE & CUENCA in Ecuador. He is an expert in crisis, institutional and corporate communication. He was Chef de Cabinet of the Secretariat of State for Communications of the Government of for four years. [email protected]

Verónica Poveda, as Senior Consultant, leads the Public Affairs’ team of LLORENTE & CUENCA Ecuador. She worked as a journalist for five years, focusing on reporting political and legislative affairs. [email protected]

Cristina Cacuango is part of the Public Affairs’ team of LLORENTE & CUENCA Ecuador. She has five years of experience in journalism, three of which she worked in the economic field. [email protected]

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