Climate Change and Disaster Management Ross Prizzia, Ph.D
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Climate Change and Disaster Management Ross Prizzia, Ph.D. Climate Change and Disaster Management Ross Prizzia S entia P ublishing C ompany Copyright © 2015 by Ross Prizzia Sentia Publishing Company has the exclusive rights to reproduce this work, to prepare derivative works from this work, to publicly distribute this work, to publicly perform this work, and to publicly display this work. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. ISBN 978-0-9961672-7-7 Printed in the United States of America. ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Ross Prizzia is a Professor of Public Administration and Director of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management Programs at the University of Hawaii West Oahu. Dedicated to my children, Frances, Rossi, and Rocco. Thanks and Aloha, Ross Table of Contents Chapter 1 Disasters and Climate Change...........................................................................5 Evidence of Climate Change...........................................................................5 The Impact of Climate Change on National Security....................................7 Worldwide Awareness of Climate Change and Natural Disasters............... 9 Changes in the Magnitude and Frequency of Climatic Extremes................ 10 Changes in Average Climatic Conditions and Climate Variability............... 11 Climate Change Related Disasters.................................................................12 Climate Change and Disasters in Asia Pacific Region.................................. 15 Chapter 2 Approaches to Climate Change.......................................................................22 Climate Change Management.......................................................................22 Social and Economic Trends That Counter Adaptation and Mitigation......23 Adaptation Strategies ...................................................................................24 Sharing the Cost of Adaptation.................................................................... 26 The Need for Adaptation.............................................................................. 28 Adaptation Criteria....................................................................................... 31 Adaptation Through Local Planning............................................................31 Adaptation Imperative..................................................................................32 Some Adaptation Initiatives..........................................................................34 Climate Change Mitigation.......................................................................... 37 Climate Change Mitigation Measures...........................................................44 Federal Actions.............................................................................................45 City, State and Regional Actions................................................................... 46 Voluntary Actions......................................................................................... 47 Cost of Emissions Reductions.......................................................................48 Geoengineering.............................................................................................50 Technology Transfer..................................................................................... 51 National Risk Management Research Laboratory.........................................53 Chapter 3 Disaster and Climate Change Preparedness...................................................64 Climate Change Preparedness at the Local Level......................................... 64 Climate Change Preparedness at the National Level...................................67 Disaster and Climate Change Preparedness in the Asia Pacific Region...... 72 Role of International Organizations in Climate Change Preparedness in the Asia Pacific Region.................................................... 74 The Asia Development Bank (ADB).............................................................77 Recommendations to Improve Disaster and Climate Change Preparedness in the Asia Pacific Region.................................................... 78 Improving Preparedness Through Innovation.............................................79 The Role of Global Climate Organization System in Disaster and Climate Change Preparedness.............................................................81 Chapter 4 Disaster and Climate Change Response and Recovery.................................99 Climate Change Response and Recovery at the Federal Level in the United States........................................................................100 White House Innovation for Disaster Response and Recovery Initiative Demo Day.................................................................104 FEMA’s Disaster Response and Recovery Efforts at the National and Local Level................................................................107 Disaster and Climate Change Response and Recovery in the United States at the Local Level.....................................................109 Disaster and Climate Change Response and Recovery in the Asia Pacific Region........................................................................111 The Role of Humanitarian and Professional International Organizations........................................................................................... 115 Lessons Learned: Guidance for Climate Change Disaster Recovery......... 118 Recommendations and Best Practices of Climate Change Disaster Response and Recovery................................................ 120 Chapter 5 Climate Change and Sustainable Development........................................... 146 Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Equity............................. 146 Stockholm and Rio de Janeiro..................................................................... 149 Agenda 21....................................................................................................150 Meeting in Lima...........................................................................................153 Climate Change as a Moral Imperative....................................................... 153 Climate Justice............................................................................................. 155 2015 A Special Year for Climate Change and Sustainable Development.... 157 Climate Change and Sustainable Development in the United States........ 160 The Role of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).........................164 President Obamas Climate Change Adaptation Plans and Sustainability Plans............................................................................168 President Obamas Climate Action Plan......................................................172 Chapter 6 Climate Change Challenges of the Future.....................................................193 The Perils of Climate Change...................................................................... 193 Climate Change: Challenges and Recommendations.................................195 Technology and Initiatives to Improve Climate Change Resilience..........196 Health Effects of Climate Change in the Future........................................204 Future Effects of Climate Change on Mitigation.......................................205 Future Climate Change Impact on Insurance.............................................208 Future Climate Change Impact on Infrastructure and Government Budgets.........................................................................209 Concluding Remarks...................................................................................212 C h a p t e r i Disasters and Climate Change Evidence of Climate Change The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earths climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports by scientific bodies of national or international standing and by opinion surveys among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to this overall scientific opinion via peer-reviewed publications. The areas of collective agreement are summarized in these high level, reputable reports and surveys. The assessments of global warming by national and international science academies and scientific societies are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by rising global average sea levels, increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, and widespread melting of snow and ice. Most of the global warming since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to human activities. Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society vary widely by location and scale. Some of the effects in temperate 5 and polar regions are positive and others elsewhere are negative. Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid