GEOPOLITICS OF GLOBALIZATION: HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND WHY WILL CHANGE EVEN MORE
CHALLENGES FOR TEXTILE INDUSTRY
Paulo Portas
PORTO, OUTUBRO 2019 IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth is sluggish: it may rebound in 2020, but risks are rising
Real GDP growth (%)
3.4 7.0 2.5 3.0 2.4 6.1 2.4 6.1 1.4 2.1 5.8 1.2
5.7 3.6 3.2 1.1
Source: IMF, October 2019. 2 IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook – October 2019. OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Trade uncertainty dragging down global growth
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook – September 2019. Review since May. Laurence Boone, Chief Economist, OECD. 4 WB GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment
Source: The World Bank, Economic Outlook – June 2019. 5 WTO GOODS TRADE BAROMETER Revamped trade indicator shows goods trade to remain weak in Q3
Sustained weakness in the barometer index was driven by below trend values in all component indices. The international air freight (91.4) and electronic components (90.7) indices showed the strongest deviations from trend, with readings well below the previous release.
Indices for export orders (97.5), automobile production and sales (93.5) and agricultural raw materials (97.1) all remained below- trend although they show signs of having bottomed out. Only the index for container shipping (99.0) was close to the baseline value of 100.
Source: WTO, August 2019. 6 WTO PROJECTIONS FOR 2019-20 WTO lowers trade forecast as tensions unsettle global economy Press release – 2019 Trade Forecast, October 1st 2019 World merchandise trade volume and real GDP growth, 1990-2020 20 8,0
15 6,0
10 4,0
5 2,0
0 0,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5 -2,0
-10 -4,0
-15 -6,0 Volume of world merchandise trade Real GDP at market exchange rates Ratio
Note: GDP is measured at market exchange rates. Data for 2019 and 2020 are projections. Trade and GDP – left axis; ratio of trade on GDP – right axis. 7 Source: WTO for trade, IMF for GDP, 2019. THE RAPID GROWTH OF WORLD TRADE World exports and imports of goods and services (constant 2010 trillion USD), 1970-2018 25
20
China joins WTO, 2001
Oil crisis, 1973-74 15
10 Treaty of Maastricht, 1993 European Economic Area (internal market), 1994 Financial crisis, 2007-2008
5
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Exports Imports
Source: The World Bank, 2019. 8 CHANGES IN GLOBAL TRADE Global network of merchandise trade, selected years, 1986–2016
Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on the United Nations Comtrade database, 2018.
Note: The node size and edge width depict export flows as a share of world gross product. The node/edge colour reflects the commodity versus manufacture intensity. The direction of edges is clockwise. When the exports of a given node are less than 5 per cent of its total exports, the edges are not reported. “Advanced Asia” refers to Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (China) and Taiwan Province of China. 9 THE NEW SHARE OF WORLD GDP Share of global real GDP PPP (%) 50
45 45 40
35
30
25 21 20
15 18
10 8
5 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Africa North America Latin America and the Caribbean Asia and Pacific Europe
The chart above shows the percentage share of world’s real GDP split by continents, and illustrates that the share of world’s real GDP in the Asian region grew considerably faster than all other continents, from 16.8% in 1960 to 45.2% in 2018. Projections until 2023 show trends being reinforced.
Source: IMF, 2019. 10 CHINA’S SHARE OF WORLD GDP Share of global real GDP PPP (%) 30%
25% 19%
20% 16%
15% 15%
10%
5%
0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Highlighted number for 2018. China US EU Projections for 2019-2024.
Source: IMF, 2019. 11 OLD PLAYERS AND… CHINA Selected WTO Members Merchandise Trade (% global trade)
1980 2000 2018 12,0%
11,7% 10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0% 3,6% 3,2% 2,5% 3,0% 2,9% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,0% 0,9% 1,1% 1,0% 1,1% 1,0% 1,3% 1,2% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,9% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,0%
Source: The World Bank, 2019. 12 THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION AS A BATTLEFIELD Dispute settlement by member, 1995-2019
Complainant Respondent 154
124
102
85
43 39 33 31 24 26 25 21 22 23 20 20 18 16 15 15
Argentina Brazil Canada China EU India Japan Korea Mexico USA
Source: WTO, 2019. 13 MODERN WARFARE: TRADE WARS
USD 185 bn USD 550 bn on the US on China
September 5, 2019 US and China agree to restart trade talks next month
The visit to Washington by top Beijing officials is set for early October.
Stock markets in Asia welcomed the news. The CSI 300 benchmark of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks closed up 1 % and Japan’s Topix ended the day 1.8 % higher.
In August, Mr Trump ramped up the trade war dramatically with China, imposing 10% tariffs on another US$300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1. China also moved to retaliate with up to US$185 billion in tariffs on US goods.
In return for a series of modest concessions, most of which had been offered by President Xi Jinping’s administration in previous negotiating rounds, Donald Trump agreed to suspend another set of tariff increases originally scheduled to take effect on October 15.
Source: FT, 2019. 14 THE WORLD’S LARGEST COMPANIES
1990 2019
Company Revenue ($M) Country Company Revenue ($M) Country
General Motors 126,974 USA Walmart 500,343 USA
Ford Motor 96,933 USA Sinopec Group 348,903 China Exxon 86,656 USA R. D. Shell 326,953 The Netherlands
IBM 63,438 USA China N. Petrol. 326,008 China
General Electric 55,264 USA State Grid 311,870 China
Mobil 50,976 USA Saudi Aramco 265,172 Saudi Arabia
Altria Group 39,069 USA BP 260,028 UK
Chrysler 36,156 USA Exxon Mobil 244,582 USA
DuPont 35,209 USA Volkswagen 244,363 Germany
Texaco 32,416 USA Toyota Motor 242,137 Japan
The world’s 500 largest companies generated $32.7 trillion in ➢ For the first time, since 1945, there are more Chinese firms in the revenues and $2.15 trillion in profits in 2018. Together, this year’s world’s top 500 ranking, than American. Fortune Global 500 companies employ 69.3 million people ➢ In global value (assets), Americans represent 28.8%, Chinese firms worldwide and are represented by 34 countries. represent 25.6%. ➢ 6 out of 10 fastest companies are Chinese. 15 Source: Fortune Global 500, 2019. THE NEW ECONOMY MEANS…
The world’s largest The largest The largest phone The most valuable taxi company owns accommodation company has no retailer has no no cars provider owns no telco infrastructure stores* real estate (*Amazon Go may change this)
The most popular The most valuable The largest movie The largest media provider photo company place owns no software vendor creates no content sells no cameras cinemas doesn’t write the apps
16 E-WORLD: GUESS WHO? Market capitalization of the largest internet companies worldwide In billion US dollars. As of September 3rd 2019
Microsoft 1 038
Apple 930
Amazon.com 885
Google/Alphabet 811
Facebook 521
Alibaba 449
Tencent 404
Ant Financial 150
SalesForce.com 134
Netflix 127
PayPal 126
Note: Ant Financial projected valuation expressed in view of its potential IPO.
Source: YCharts, 2019. 17 THE GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR DATA
Sources of EU debate: • Tax digital services? • Filter or remove copyrighted material from websites (Article 13)? • Tackle fake news? • Monitor hate speech? • Reinforce cybersecurity against terrorism? • Tackle political campaign manipulation?
18 Source: Le Monde, 2018. ONLINE PLATFORMS: AMERICA VS ASIA MARKET VALUATIONS In billions US dollars
Source: Dr. Holger Schmidt (TU Darmstad/Netzoekonom.de) December 2018
19 The WIPO finds that China now accounts for 21% of global patent applications. That's right behind the long-time leader US at 22% in 2018, down from 29% in 2017.
If current trends continue, China could surpass the US for patent filings within 2 years. Just a decade ago, China was ranked 7th worldwide for number of patent applications. Source: World Intellectual Property Organization, Nikkei,2019. CHINA’S GAINING MOMENTUM Gross domestic spending on R&D. Total, % of GDP, 2000 – 2018.
Source: OECD, 2019. 21 GLOBAL CHALLENGES NATURAL RESOURCES FOR A NEW ECONOMY The case of rare earths
Applications
22 Source: UNCTAD, US Geological Survey, Statista, 2018. ESTIMATED CHANGES IN 2050 The US and Europe losing ground to emerging Asia
23 RISK REGIONS # PERSIAN GULF # SOUTH CHINA SEA
Oil Tankers’ Tracking Signals Are Vanishing in the Strait of US military raised frequency of transport movements Hormuz through the strategic waterway # KOREAN PENINSULA # KASHMIR
South Korea’s Moon calls for peace with North Korea by 2045 India revokes Kashmir's special status THE BIGGEST RISKS THE WORLD FACES WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM 2019
25 Source: The Global Risks Report, WEF, 2019. SHORT-TERM RISK OUTLOOK Percentage of respondents expecting risks to increase
91 88 85 82 80 73 72 69 67 64
Source: The Global Risks Report, WEF, 2019.
Major risks include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on safe, advanced-country government bonds. 26 IS THE ECONOMY GREAT AGAIN?
8 Real GDP (% change from previous period), seasonally-adjusted at annual rates Real GDP grew at 2.1% in Q2, after increasing at 3.1% in Q1. 6
4 3,1 2,1 2
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2019.
27 BUDGETARY OUTLOOK FISCAL EXPANSIONISM
0,0% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 93% 90% -1,0% 78% 78% 76% 80%
70% -2,0% -2,8% -2,8% 60% -3,1% -3,0% -3,2% 50%
-3,1% 40%
-4,0% -4,4% 30% -3,8% -4,2% 20% -5,0%
10% Obama Administration Obama -6,0% Projections 0%
Fiscal Deficit (-) or Surplus (left axis) Net Exports of Goods and Services (left axis) Debt Held by the Public (right axis)
Source: US Congressional Budget Office, 2019. 28 “IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID”
Source: Bruce Mehlman, 2019. 29 DEGLOBALIZATION from 1914 until 1947
Average Tariff Rates on Total Imports, 1830-2010
GATT’47
Great Depression
Source: Albert H. Imlah, Economic Elements, 2011.
30 THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROTECTIONISM in the past…
“The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was initially to safeguard US farmers from external agricultural products.
Despite the good intentions behind it, the act did not end up well at all. American imports fell from $1.33bn in 1929 to $390m in 1932, and exports decreased from $2.34bn in 1929 to just $784m in 1932.
The first phenomenon was caused by the higher level of American duties that increased foreign companies’ costs and consequently pushed up the price of their products.
The latter was due to the retaliation of America’s trade partners, who increased their own tariffs on American goods – the subsequent fall in US exports led to fewer jobs in the USA.”
Source: Protectionism in America: An Overview, 2017. 31 OTHER FORMS OF PROTECTIONISM
The Buy American Act (1933) applies to all US federal government agency purchases of goods valued over the micro- purchase threshold, but does not apply to services.
The Buy America Act (1983) provisions are applied to transit-related procurements valued over USD 100,000, for which funding includes grants administered by the Federal Transit Authority (FTA) or Federal Highway Administration.
(Both these have exceptions, exemptions and waivers, namely by executive decision.)
32 GIVE ME YOUR FUTURE MILLIONNAIRES How immigration boosts capitalism 20%
25% 55%
Immigrants and their children have founded 45% of the U.S.' Fortune 500 companies
Fortune 500 companies founded by immigrants or their children employ 13.5 million people
On average, they employ 11% more people than the average Fortune 500 company with a nonimmigrant founder
The share of successful US companies that have immigrant founders is growing, despite the Trump Administration making it more difficult for immigrants to come to the US
Source: New American Economy Research Fund, 2019. 33 THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP
On 8 March 2018 in Santiago, Chile, the CP TPP was formally signed by 11 countries, making it the third largest free trade area in the world by GDP (12% of world GDP), after NAFTA and the EU.
Critics: • CPTPP may only benefit developed economies and large companies (opening up to foreign markets) • Higher exports to do not mean necessarily more development (need high content of domestic value-added) • Labour standards may lead to growth in informal sector 34 THE GREAT AMERICAN POWER Share of currencies in global foreign exchange reserves from 2000 to 2018
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
U.S. dollar Euro Pound sterling Japanese Yen Chinese renminbi Other currencies
Source: IMF, 2019. 35 THE GREAT AMERICAN POWER The US spends more on Defense than the next seven countries combined
36 POLITICAL STRESS AND RISK
Growth Tension with Populism Brexit Russia
Demography
Sovereign debt East Terrorism back to the East
Energy dependency Tension with Separatisms Turkey
Source: Vinciamo, 2019. Migration 37 EU ECONOMIES GROWING AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS
Malta 1,3 Hungary 1,1 Romania 1 Poland 0,8 Lithuania 0,8 Champions Cyprus 0,8 Greece 0,8 Denmark 0,8 Bulgaria 0,8 Latvia 0,7 Ireland 0,7 Czechia 0,7 Finland 0,5 Portugal 0,5 Satisfactory Netherlands 0,5 Spain 0,5 Estonia 0,4 France 0,3 Slovenia 0,2 Austria 0,2 Croatia 0,2 Non satisfactory Belgium 0,2 EU28 0,2 Italy 0 Sweden -0,1 Real GDP growth (in %), 2019 Q2 Germany -0,1 Laggards Data for LU and SK not available. United Kingdom -0,20 Source: Eurostat, September 2019. 38 GERMANY’S CAR INDUSTRY DEADLOCK
Source: Financial Times, 2019. 39 GERMANY’S MANUFACTURING SECTOR STRUGGLES
Source: Financial Times, 2019. 40 THE IMPACT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF BREXIT IN THE ECONOMY (1) UK significantly worse off under all Brexit scenarios…
Impact in a 15-year horizon. Source: The Guardian, November 28th 2018. 41 THE IMPACT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF BREXIT (2) THE UK ECONOMY CONTRACTED IN THE SECOND QUARTER Quarter-on-quarter % change
Source: Financial Times, August 2019. 42 “WHATEVER IT TAKES” ECB's benchmark interest rates
Sources: European Central Bank, 2019. 43 AFRICA THE NEW DEMOGRAPHIC GIANT
Africa’s young and growing population can become a powerful growth engine for the continent – provided there is an investment in education, health care and welfare. Africa’s population growth will account for approximately 58% of the global increase between 2018 and 2050.
Source: Twitter, 2019.
Source: World Population Prospects, 2019. 44 GETTING (SERIOUSLY) OLDER Population median age (years)
Source: European Parliamentary Research Service, 2013. 45 EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD By 2100, it’s projected that nearly half of the world’s children aged 0-4 years old will be in Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 2019. 46 PRODUCTIVITY IS FAILING IN DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Average growth (output per hour) in each decade
Source: The Conference Board / FT
47 LIFE PROSPECTS
48 Source: Ipsos Global Trends (2016), The Global Risks Report – WEF, 2019. EU TRADE AGREEMENTS Trade for all: 40 trade agreements with 70 countries
EU-South Korea Trade Agreement Free Trade Agreement and EU-China Investment Agreement Trade and Investment (Modernization) Investment Protection Agreement Negotiations started in 2013, to Signed on 30 June 2019. Agreement signed in 2011. The agreement with Singapore remove market access barriers to 99% tariffs eliminated. 65% Amended in 2014 to allow Croatia removes nearly all customs duties investment. It will replace bilateral import duties eliminated at to benefit from the deal. All import and gets rid of overlapping investment agreements. entry into force; remaining duties removed, since July 2016. bureaucracy, stimulates green Last round in June 2019, in gradually over 10 years. growth and promotes investment. Beijing. Next to be defined. Signed on October 19th 2018.
EU-MX Trade Agreement EU-Mercosur FTA EU-Chile Trade Agreement EU-AU Trade Agreement Political agreement on April Negotiations started in 1999 and (Modernization) Negotiations launched in 21st 2018. Full legal text to resumed in 2016, after long The EU and Chile concluded an June 2018. The EU is be finalized by year end. pause. Agreed in principle in June Association Agreement in 2002, Australia’s 2nd biggest trade Customs, climate-change 2019. Removes majority of tariffs which includes a comprehensive partner. Farming and and tackling corruption as on EU exports (saves €4bn in Free Trade Agreement. geographical indicators are part of the deal. duties) and preserves 355 EU Renegotiation was launched on pending topics. Last round in geographical indications. 16/11 2017 in Brussels. Ongoing. July 2019. 49 Source: European Commission, 2019. CHINA TRENDS IN 2019 From high-speed to high-quality growth
China’s economy slowed from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, mainly due to financial regulatory tightening in banking activity, and as a result of the widening trade dispute with the US. Further deceleration is projected for 2019 and 2020 (6.2% and 6.0%, respectively).
Reforms progressed in several key areas: 1) strengthening financial regulations; 2) control local government investment; 3) reduce pace of debt accumulation; 4) new FDI law (and revision of the list of FDI entry). The deficit of the general government sector is estimated at 11% of GDP.
If trade tensions escalate further, additional stimulus, mainly fiscal, would be warranted.
The global economy would benefit from a more open, stable, and transparent, rules-based international trade system. China can also benefit from further opening up and other structural reforms that enhance competition.
Source: OECD, September 2019. Source: IMF Article IV, August 2019. THE MIX OF KEYNES AND HAYEK How China is facing economic slowdown
Source: China Daily - National Bureau of Statistics, Government Work Report, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, 2019 51 A “CENTURY OF HUMILIATION” Intervention by Western powers and Japan, 1839-1949
The term itself was first coined in 1915 in response to Japan’s 21 Demands, relating to a period starting from the First Opium War (1839-42) and including the “Unequal Treaties”.
Both Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong declared the end of the Century of Humiliation in the aftermath of World War II.
A “narrative as a magnificent civilisation uniquely threatened by immoral barbarians, the innocent and blameless victim of international bullying and unwarranted imperialism”.
52 DENG XIAOPING the father of modern China
“Wealth is glorious.” – attributed to Deng Xiaoping.
“It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
Author of the reforms that made China a global superpower. “China must keep it’s light dim, waiting it’s time.”
The 4 modernizations: agriculture, industry, science and defence. (and about Deng Xiaoping) The “Beijing Consensus”: economic freedom versus political one. “China lived 100 years of humiliation, 30 years of mistakes and 30 years of reforms and staggering growth.” – “With Deng’s reforms, China changed in 40 years what other countries changed in 400” – by a member of CPC, according to a Yu Hua, writer. former French ambassador to Beijing
The normalisation of China-US relationship (Xioaping-Carter, 1979). 53 XI JINPING the accelerator
If Deng was the reformer, Xi is the accelerator.
After 3 years, we will win the final The fifth generation – whose formative experiences phase of the war on poverty. were shaped during the Cultural Revolution – arrives to power. This will be the first time in thousands of years of Chinese history that Xi’s own family story helps to explain his vision. extreme poverty has been eliminated.
January 4th 2018 The policy of the Four Comprehensives: ➢ building a moderately prosperous society; ➢ deepening reform; ➢ advancing the rule of law; ➢ strictly governing the Communist Party of China.
A new model for growth - Made in China 2025: ❖ Move away from world’s factory to high value products; ❖ Goal of 70% Chinese content of core materials by 2025; ❖ USD 300b to invest in high-tech sectors (pharma, auto, space, semiconductors, IT, robotics) to counter reliance on foreign firms; ❖ Compete with the US globally. 54 WRONG WESTERN PERCEPTIONS about China
Chinese copy, they don’t invent
China will be old, before it becomes rich
With China in the WTO, Western products will flow into China
Economic freedom will surely bring political freedom
55 CHINA’S DIGITAL ECONOMY A story of commercial success
Source: McKinsey, 2018. 56 CULTURAL EXCHANGES: TOURISM
Beyond Greater China, it is largely the economies of other Asian countries reaping the benefit of the rapid growth in outbound travel. Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Singapore are also among the top 10 destinations for Chinese tourists. The US and Italy complete the list.
Source: World Tourism Organization UNWTO, 2019. 57 IMPRESSIVE RISING but some problems remain
AGEING INTERNET CONCENTRATION EXIT POLLUTION POPULATION CONTROL OF (NEW) WEALTH OF CAPITAL
34tr USD OF DEBT CLANDESTINE 140,000 PROTESTS HONG KONG TAIWAN EVERY YEAR (VS. SHENZHEN) ELECTIONS IN 2020 (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE) (CATHOLIC) CHURCHES
STATE OWNED CAPITALIZATION LABOUR PREJUDICE MINORITIES ENTERPRISES OF PUBLIC BANKS PRODUCTIVITY AGAINST (55 ethnicities) FOREIGN INVESTMENT e.g. UYGHURS (BOTH WAYS) 58 SILK ROADS: UNEQUAL RECIPROCALITY? (I) Investment regimes in China and in Europe
Chinese treatment of EU EU treatment of Chinese investors investors Exploration and exploitation of oil and natural gas Joint venture only No restrictions, invited by GR Printing of publications Minority only No restrictions No restrictions, acquisition of Manufacturing of complete automobiles Max. 50% Volvo Repair, design and manufacturing of ships Minority only No restrictions, activities in GR Aircraft design and production Minority only No restrictions No restrictions, CCTV in multiple Production of satellite TV broadcasting Minority only countries No restrictions, activities in the Nuclear power stations Minority only UK No restrictions, activities in ES Construction and operation of power grids Minority only and PT Construction and operation of network of railways Minority only No restrictions, activities in HU Construction and operation of civil airports Minority only No restrictions, invited by GR Telecommunication companies Minority only No restrictions, activities in EU Banks Max. 20% No restrictions, activities in EU Insurance companies Max. 50% No restrictions, activities in EU Source: Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China, 2019. 59 SILK ROADS: DIFFERENT STRATEGIES (II) The dependence of China’s manufacturing sector on exports
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Manufacturing value added (USD billion) 893 1.149 1.475 1.611 1.925 2.330 2.555 2.779 2.928 3.104 Net manufacturing exports (USD billion) 312 443 583 422 534 659 765 810 917 982 Manufacturing export dependence (%) 35 39 39 26 28 28 30 29 31 32 Share of foreign companies in China’s 47 48 46 46 45 44 43 41 40 36 manufactured exports (%)
Chinese and EU exports to third countries vs competitiveness indicators
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Labor costs China 100 119 139 155 175 200 224 247 270 297 n.a. EU 100 104 104 102 107 109 114 117 120 124 n.a. Total factor China 100 104 107 106 106 111 112 110 111 111 109 productivity EU 100 101 101 99 95 96 96 95 95 95 95 Export to third China 100 123 144 124 161 196 218 239 252 248 227 countries EU 100 114 127 104 123 145 147 154 156 142 138
Source: UNCTAD; China Department of Statistics; Eurostat; Conference Board, 2019. 60 SILK ROADS: THE FOCUS IN R&D… (III) R&D spending in manufacturing (USD bn, PPP)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EU 119 117 120 130 137 142 151
China 93 114 135 162 194 224 253
US 204 195 197 201 208 221 233
Sector-wide average 2013-14 Machines Cars Planes, ships, trains Pharma EU 16 32 10 14 China 26 19 11 10 US 14 12 19 49
Source: OECD, 2019. 61 THE QUESTION OF HONG KONG One people, two identities
Source: The Economist, August 2019. 62 THE MOST RAPID SHIFT IN THE WORLD’S ECONOMIC CENTER OF GRAVITY Evolution of the earth’s economic center of gravity (AD 1 to 2025)
The economic center of gravity is calculated by weighting locations by GDP in 3 dimensions and projected to the nearest point on the earth’s surface. The surface projection of the center of gravity shifts north over the course of the century, reflecting the fact that in 3-dimensional space America and Asia are not only “next” to each other, but also “across” from each other.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis using data from Angus Maddison; University of Groningen, 2018. 63 GEO POLITICS OF GLOBALIZATION: HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND WHY WILL CHANGE EVEN MORE
CHALLENGES FOR TEXTILE INDUSTRY
Paulo Portas
PORTO, OUTUBRO 2019