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TRFs climatic model of Here, Pleistocene gia contraction during Africa. dic- refugia and Central be of expansion to in out thought repeated found are by is structure tated genetic world of the patterns tropical in present-day continuous (TRF) of forest expanse rain second-largest dissim- The in comparable patterns. resulting to ilar individualistically, leading or climate change, dynamics, region climate of evolutionary a to face in similarly Species the respond biomes. may in hyper-diverse diversity in conservation particularly genetic 2020) species change, 27, January for of review for fundamental dynamics (received 2020 is evolutionary 21, October the approved and Norway, Understanding Oslo, Oslo, of University Stenseth, Chr. Nils by Edited Sup Normale Ecole Biologiques, a Helmstetter J. 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Table this (H1b; 16–18). hypothesis to (7, refer tolerances adapta- environmental We different and/or of phenotypes, could because tions, species individualistically hypothesis, species- responded refugia details). “strict have for the the 1 under as Table even this see Alternatively, to (H1a; refer hypothesis ecological We refugia” of independent (7). independent traits life-history events, or climatic Pleistocene shared 1). (Fig. that 15) 6, Lower mountainous (3, In in coast located Atlantic (3). the be areas to to refugial close thought regions discrete are several refugia into or most Africa Central Guinea, 14) in (6, 90% as single much a as contracted have to gested doi:10.1073/pnas.2001018117/-/DCSupplemental at online information supporting contains article This 2 1 the under Published Submission.y Direct PNAS a is article This interest.y competing no declare paper.y authors the The wrote T.L.P.C. and A.J.H. and K.B., data; A.J.H., analyzed T.L.P.C. tools; and and reagents/analytic N.G.K., new K.B., contributed T.L.P.C. A.J.H., research; research; performed designed T.L.P.C. T.L.P.C. and B.S., A.J.H., contributions: Author n nlsso idvriy ntttBuso etad 40 otele,France.y Montpellier, 34000 Bertrand, Bouisson Institut Biodiversity, of Analysis Biodiversit and la sur Recherche la pour Fondation address: [email protected] y Email: addressed. be may correspondence whom To ,Cameroon e, idvriyi eea,adi eta fiai particular. forest in Africa rain Central tropical in and of general, conservation impor- in similar has biodiversity the study to for Our led implications region. this tant change within climate dynamics forest past rain that the view challenge results long-standing Our traits. life-history and codis- factors environ- mental different of by driven range responses indi- evolutionary asynchronous, a vidualistic variable, reveal of dataset We dynamics species. genomic plant evolutionary tributed unparalleled the an Cen- estimate of generated to forests We rain tropical Africa. biodiverse tral or highly similar the either hypoth- within exhibit this esis tested could We area responses. conserva- evolutionary same individualistic biodiversity the in improved Species for tion. fundamental is climate change past to responses evolutionary species’ Understanding Significance ´ ee eifre h vltoayhsoiso ait of variety a of histories evolutionary the inferred we Here, implies 9) (3, hypothesis refugia the of interpretation strict A b all oaetr Sonk Bonaventure , pce epne nasmlreouinr a to way evolutionary similar a in responded species mtqee ’clge D d’Ecologie, et ematique ´ NSlicense.y PNAS e ´ b n hmsL .Couvreur P. 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EVOLUTION Stability Is Linked to Genetic Structure. We recovered evidence for significant geographic structure in all species (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). Our genetic clustering analyses using Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components (DAPC) (28) and TESS3 (29) revealed that intraspecific diversity was highly structured, with four species exhibiting four or more distinct genetic clus- ters (Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Figs. S2–S4). The topology of individual-level phylogenetic trees built using the entire dataset revealed groupings of individuals that closely matched those from clustering approaches (Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Figs. S5–S11). To test the impact of stability on genetic structure across species, we used three main definitions of “stable areas.” The first consisted of the traditional refugia proposed by Maley (3) or Anhuf et al. (6) (Fig. 1) that are common to all species. For the two others, we estimated stable areas based on regional climate and species-specific habitat (30): 1) We identified climatically stable areas at the regional level by calculating differences in temperature and rainfall between the LGM and present (31); and 2) we inferred stable habitats between the LGM and present Fig. 1. Major vegetation types of Lower Guinea and bathymetry of the (e.g., ref. 15) by building ecological niche models (ENMs; see SI Gulf of Guinea. Refugial areas proposed by Maley (3) and Anhuf et al. (6) Appendix for methodological details) for each species. for our study area are shown. Vegetation layers are taken from ref. 19. Inset Initially, we tested whether traditional refugia (3, 6) were on the top right shows the area in the context of the African continent. Bathymetry contour values for every 100 m for the Gulf of Guinea (north: important for determining patterns of present-day genetic diver- 5.5; south: −7.0; west: 6.0; east: 14) were downloaded from ref. 95. The sity (H1). We expected individuals in or close to these tradi- light blue region indicates ocean floor greater than 100 m in depth. Map tional refugia to be more genetically diverse (10). We calculated was drawn with QGIS (v3.123). individual-level expected heterozygosity (He ), observed het- erozygosity (Ho ), and allelic richness and compared these to dis- tance from traditional refugia (Fig. 1 and SI Appendix, Figs. S12– Annonaceae [custard-apples (21); four species]. Our species S18). A significant relationship was found in five of the seven sampling covers a range of habit types, ecological tolerances, and species, depending on the distance and diversity metrics used. animal-mediated dispersal syndromes (SI Appendix, Tables S1 Decreasing distance to the coast [representing the single coastal and S2). We used a comparative phylogeographic approach (22– refugium hypothesis of Anhuf et al. (6)] was significantly asso- 24) to test how similar evolutionary dynamics are among Lower ciated with higher levels of genetic diversity in Annickia affinis Guinea TRF plant species. and Podococcus barteri. Both concepts of traditional refugia were If species follow the expectations of the refugia hypothesis linked to increased genetic diversity in Anonidium mannii and (H1; Table 1), then, under the strict species-independent refu- Sclerosperma mannii. No significant relationship was found for gia hypothesis (H1a), we expect to find high levels of genetic the remaining species. In a second analysis, we used analysis of structure, concordance in the timing of the emergence of this molecular variance (AMOVA) to test how much genetic vari- structure, and demographic trends showing similar patterns of ance is explained by the three different definitions of stability contraction (i.e., genetic bottlenecks) and expansion of popu- defined above. We found that proximity to stable areas gener- lations across all sampled species, independent of their life- ally explained a small amount of genetic variance (<10%; SI history traits or environmental preferences (7, 25). In contrast, Appendix, Fig. S19). Even so, stable areas explained a significant under the relaxed species-dependent refugia hypothesis (H1b; amount of variance in all species. Most notably, in A. mannii, all Table 1), we expect to infer responses to Pleistocene climatic three versions of stability explained large amounts of variance, events, but no evolutionary or temporal concordance, with each while for P. barteri, we found that climatic stability explained species responding in its own individualistic manner (7, 16, 18). substantially more variance than the others. Using family-tailored nuclear-marker baiting kits (26, 27), we sequenced hundreds of nuclear loci in more than 750 individuals. A Common Equatorial Genetic Discontinuity. We found a conspic- By doing so, we reduced biases linked to the use of different types uous latitudinal genetic discontinuity at the climatic inversion or few molecular markers, enabling us to undertake evolution- located 0 to 3◦ North, in Southern Cameroon/Northern Gabon ary and temporal analyses with increased accuracy in a common (Fig. 2H). It was recovered in all species distributed across framework. the equator (6/7) (Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Figs. S2 and S4). We then examined how important this barrier is to explaining Results genetic diversity in each species. We performed a hierarchical Generated sequence data were analyzed in four main steps. AMOVA to show that, though ubiquitous, this North–South bar- First, we inferred intraspecific genetic structure for each species rier explains different amounts of variance among species (SI using 2,000 (2k) to 6k single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) Appendix, Table S3): It is important in A. mannii and P. barteri, (SI Appendix, Table S1). Second, phylogenetic relationships but less so in the other species. between resulting genetic clusters were reconstructed by using whole-sequence datasets of up to 365 nuclear loci (SI Appendix, Asynchronous Population Divergence. To estimate the timing Table S1). We used a subset of nuclear loci together with fossil- of population divergence, we took a secondary calibration calibration information to date the origin of intraspecific genetic approach. We first produced time-calibrated backbone trees at structure. Third, we inferred the demographic history of each a higher taxonomic level, which allowed us to make use of species and their genetic clusters separately. Finally, we inves- fossils that are not available for the focal groups (SI Appendix, tigated associations between intraspecific genetic variation and Figs. S20 and S21). We inferred divergence times between a range of environmental factors related to geography, climate, genetic clusters using multiple phylogenetic approaches. We stability, and soil characteristics. built population-level phylogenetic trees using divergence times

2 of 10 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2001018117 Helmstetter et al. Downloaded by guest on October 3, 2021 Downloaded by guest on October 3, 2021 xaddoto n otatdit tbeaes Therefore, al. et areas. Helmstetter stable species into as contracted and Pleistocene, of the out during expanded repeatedly fluctuated Trends. have Demographic there Major that Two indicating pattern. common Ma, this driving 4.2 event diver- to single these no 0.3 the of likely from during was ages ranged commonly median events the most gence However, species, in 3). per occurred (Fig. event Pleistocene inversion For major climatic ways. one the different only across in divergence divergence climate example, past population that the affected hypothesis However, the change supporting Ma. species, consider- 1 among differed ably time around bound- through events and divergence Pliocene–Pleistocene of Ma), distribution the 2.5 points—during (approximately ary time two frequently and most 3 at occurred (Fig. divergence topolo- species Population all similar S24–S29). in Figs. reconstructing produced times when divergence approaches analyses and two migration gies StarBEAST These of our trees. levels species upon low (DENIM) expands incorporating migration by approach and This (ILS) sorting notwithstand- generally (33). estimation lineage topologies divergence incomplete used their ing also and reason- we 2), comparison, were ( individuals loci trees trees (Fig. five individual-level Species clock-like supported reflected subsampled cluster. and most well genetic species ably 32 each our represent the of to each selected for or We habitat (32) inferred (83). approach on coalescent based Bayesian StarBEAST the or areas and refugia trees stable backbone defined discrete in traditionally inferred to the refers either Stability are dynamics. and and times structure adverse genetic during influence even also species might a mechanisms of stability. other climate populations that harbor note to We inferred flora. forest rain Guinean species-independent Strict Subhypotheses of assumption the under expectations population genetic dynamics temporal species and impacting) spatial not resulting (or with impacting tested fluctuations hypotheses climatic Main 1. Table eei structure Genetic pta distribution Spatial eei diversity Genetic eorpi history Demographic eprloii fpplto litcn,temporally Pleistocene, population of origin Temporal niomna factors Environmental References fgntcclusters genetic of species within ihnspecies within ihnspecies within mn species among and within tutr mn species among structure nuniggntcvrainsaiiyepandistribution explain stability variation genetic influencing ihnspecies within hs xettosaecnee rudtehptei htsal ra rrfgapae nipratrl nteeouinr yaiso Lower of dynamics evolutionary the in role important an played refugia or areas stable that hypothesis the around centered are expectations These High loarcor Allopatric ihrwithin Higher vdneo population of Evidence atr eae to related Factors 3 ,7) 6, (3, eui oe H) uigavreciai eid eg,LGM), (e.g., periods climatic adverse During (H1): model Refugia .For S5–S11). Figs. Appendix, SI pce agsaetogtto thought are ranges Species parapatric tbeareas stable n expansion and (bottleneck) contraction congruent fgntcdiversity. genetic of l pce epne na in responded species All eui oe (H1a): model refugia risadevrnetlfcos n niomna factors environmental and factors. environmental and traits life-history of independent iia vltoayway evolutionary similar Rssgicnl otatdars oe unait n or one arid more into by ecosystems surrounded Guinea areas stable Lower ecologically discrete across several contracted significantly TRFs IAppendix, SI eae pce-eedn o applicable Not species-dependent Relaxed o ohigh to Low loarcor Allopatric ihrwti tbeaesN relationship No areas stable within Higher vdneo population of Evidence litcn,temporally Pleistocene, ifrn atr across factors Different 7 16) (7, atr eoee o n atclrarea. particular (H1a); any demographic for species common recovered no different pattern to found in we expect examination, trends par- might upon size however, we If population refugia, change. similar cross-species climate infer as areas past period acted different to areas time from differently ticular this populations responding over that also indicates constant are This relatively while 4B). Ka, was 70 (Fig. and cluster 20 final between expansion the in and trends decline of demographic evidence similar in have example, For not cases. did all species belonging same clusters the different to but patterns, species-level 4 (Fig. reflected species our within cluster ranges species’ as periods. bottlenecks glacial may during population which contracted LGM species, of one the but representative all to in be decline close rapid years of declines evidence 200,000 found last for the evidence over in including growth Ka), and decline (200 of fluctuat- experienced patterns species ing Annonaceae the time second, through 4A); increase size (Fig. population of experienced rate species constant palm relatively three a the First, (34): species. approach forest Plot rain way on impact an of less had cycles size these that population effective pattern in cyclical 1) similar (N (Table a decreases and expected increases we of model, refugia the under pce epne ndifferent in responded Species (H1b): model refugia nlf-itr traits life-history on dependent ways evolutionary orltosi nothers in relationship no n oeiec nohr expansion others in evidence no and nldn stability. including parapatric nsm pce and species some in xaso nsm pce btlncs or (bottlenecks) contraction population species some in expansion and (bottleneck) contraction incongruent pce xli itiuinseisexplain species distribution explain species fgntcdiversity genetic of eas siae ouainsz hnefrec genetic each for change size population estimated also We Stair- the using patterns demographic major two recovered We e .affinis, A. .Amr osattedin trend constant more A ). Hypotheses and mannii, A. he ffu lsesshowed clusters four of three affinis, A. We suaveolens. Greenwayodendron N orfgamdl(2:During (H2): model refugia No Low oprior No oeiec of evidence No o eesrl Pleistocene, necessarily Not ifrn atr across factors Different 4 7) (4, B–H e iest.N role No diversity. fstability. of expectations eprlyincongruent. temporally itiuino genetic of distribution vrti eidmyindicate may period this over Guinea Lower across contract not did TRFs periods, climatic adverse .I eea,teeresults these general, In ). NSLts Articles Latest PNAS | f10 of 3

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Fig. 2. Genetic-clustering results of seven Central African rain forest species. For each species, collection points for individuals (where known) are shown, colored by genetic cluster, as inferred with DAPC. To the bottom left of A–G is a phylogenetic tree showing the relationships among genetic clusters (including outgroups in white). Pie charts at nodes on the trees indicate support (posterior probability). H shows the location of major genetic discontinuities associated with the climatic inversion that were inferred for each species by using TESS3, by drawing a line along contact of ancestry coefficients among clusters in interpolation maps (SI Appendix, Fig. S2).

Distinct Sets of Environmental Factors Explain Patterns in Genetic rain forest plant species exhibiting a broad range of life-history Diversity Across Species. We tested how different environmen- traits. tal factors shaped intraspecific genetic variation in each of Overall, our results support the refugia hypothesis (H1; our species. Again, under the strict species-independent refu- Table 1), where species have undergone periods of contrac- gia model (H1a), we expected genetic variation across species to tion into stable areas and expansion out of them, mainly during be mainly explained by shared stable areas (Table 1). To inves- the Pleistocene. Indeed, as for most plant species studied to tigate this, we collated data relating to geographic distribution date in Lower Guinea (7, 15, 24, 36, 37), we recovered gener- of individuals, climate, soil type, and stability for each of the ally high levels of population structure: Four species had four seven species (SI Appendix, Table S5). We used a distance-based or more genetic clusters (Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Fig. S2). redundancy analysis (db-RDA) framework (35) to build mod- Even when fixing the number of genetic clusters and com- els and determine the total amount of genetic variance that can paring across our species, we still found geographically dis- be explained by these variables and their relative importance. parate patterns of genetic clustering (SI Appendix, Fig. S4). As expected under H1b, species differed in the total amount In contrast to the previously mentioned studies, our results of variance explained and by the factors that were most impor- are based on the same set of genome-wide markers in each tant (Fig. 5). Indeed, for the liana species M. enghiana, stability family, rather than small numbers of species-tailored markers, explained negligible variance, while for the tree species A. affinis which can be biased toward increased levels of diversity and stability was shown to be more important (Fig. 5). structuring (38). Other major differences among species emerged: For exam- Geographically, most genetic clusters within species are para- ple, soil characteristics explained diversity patterns in G. suave- patric in distribution (Fig. 2). These results are in line with the olens, while the geographic distribution of individuals was key in prediction of past population contraction, leading to genetic dif- S. mannii. However, some variables were common across mod- ferentiation (H1; Table 1), followed by range expansion (7). els, shared by up to seven species (SI Appendix, Table S7). A Secondary contact after expansion out of putative refugia has number of these were soil variables, including pH, depth to not led to genetic homogenization. Barriers to gene flow appear bedrock, and the presence of particular soil types (inceptisols to have been maintained since forest contraction, leading to the and ultisols). In terms of present-day environment, precipitation patterns of genetic structure observed today. However, these was a common explanatory variable, particularly the amount of clusters do not generally overlap with traditional refugia (Fig. 1), precipitation during the driest and warmest periods of the year. nor are they concordant among species. For all of our sampled Stability in precipitation over time and ENM-based stability were species, genetic diversity was linked (SI Appendix, Fig. S19) to at also common to seven and five species respectively, but were gen- least one or more of our three definitions of stability [traditional, erally not important explanatory factors, explaining low amounts climate, or habitat, (30)], favoring the refugia hypothesis (H1). of variance. A previous phylogeographic study of the palm P. barteri based on plastome data also inferred a strong correlation between Discussion habitat stability (ENMs) and unique and high genetic diversity Our study provides a perspective on the impact of the Pleistocene (15) in areas along the Atlantic coast. While the same pattern climatic fluctuations on the highly diverse flora of the Lower was observed in this study for the same species, climate-based Guinean TRF. Using a common comparative phylogeographic stability actually explained more genetic variance (SI Appendix, framework, we tested hypotheses relating to species’ evolution- Fig. S19) and, therefore, played a more important role than ary responses (Table 1) simultaneously across seven lowland habitat stability in P. barteri.

4 of 10 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2001018117 Helmstetter et al. 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Ma clusters 2.58 genetic the at DAPC of color between StarBEAST background start for of in the species change plots all The represents density (dashed). across represent DENIM divergence lines and population (dotted) black of represent Overlain age medians and these event. median of (triangles) the each side for StarBEAST either HPDs on using Lines 95% shown. by are estimated (circles) DENIM times divergence Median 3. Fig. 0246 u eut,hwvr ontfi ihasrc species- strict a with fit not do however, results, Our species, most in that, showed we dating, molecular Using * * ouaindvrec ie nLwrGienri oetspecies. forest rain Guinean Lower in times divergence Population * * * * * Time (Ma) Time * pce sam- species a suaveolens, G. * .suaveolens G. * 4)were (41) STARBEAST DENIM S. P. P. M. G. A. 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P. and important acaulis, most P. olens, the were factor variables important soil R most of a the sum not as (largest was recovered our it supporting However, was species, results. each Stability previous for 5). variable con- explanatory (Fig. differed significant species that variance across genetic support explaining siderably not factors did as our (35) prediction, the However, a analyses 1). be (Table Under redundancy to species distance-based stability species. across expected factor across we explanatory main (H1a), diversity hypothesis genetic refugia strict of influenced distribution have factors the environmental what tested we structure, (H1b). hypothesis further species-specific differed—lending relaxed the populations to stable support 4 (Fig. those others of not but locations species, some of in patterns found fluctuating were rapidly detect to ability N our versus limits kb data in (270 Annonaceae disparity than dataset kb; a 740 data palm the sequence to However, less palms. point contained effect than greater species a results had Annonaceae periods Our on glacial where species. of families plant effect these between muted demographic of long-term a 4), the from trajectory suggests (Fig. on fauna fluctuations This Ka and climatic flora 53–56). 300 Pleistocene other (36, last in worldwide the inferred TRFs over commonly gen- also decline a is exhibited population which Palms of plants. lack African eral found Central been other have that demographic several (52), in bottlenecks Pleistocene population found and gradual (36), 1). (41), response declines expansions We a demographic (Table recent in including expected fluctuations changes, 4). be climatic pattern might as (Fig. cyclical to decreases, somewhat and patterns increases a of experienced major species Annonaceae two revealing inland. further northern regions be between southern could differences and it environmental but reduced unclear, to remains related pattern this this behind along mechanism structuring 2 genetic (Fig. a Eastern divide show in not sampled Nevertheless, did species inland. (50). three Cameroon/Gabon further for flora down recovered Guinean break clusters to Lower Genetic appears the discontinuity sup- in genetic further event this This barrier rare climatic 3). a this (Fig. across is colonization event species that divergence hypothesis each the major in ports single, inversion a the just across recovered eco- we in 51)]. 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Fig. 4. Demographic histories of seven Lower Guinean rain forest species. Population size changes were reconstructed by using the Stairway Plot method. Median effective population sizes (Ne) over time are shown by colored lines. A shows patterns inferred using all individuals in each species. B–H show demographic trends for each genetic cluster detected within each species, based on the same color code as A. Additional plots, including CIs, can be found in ref. 92.

and/or geography (A. affinis, A. mannii, and S. mannii). Over- study gives a temporal context to the evolutionary dynamics for all, our analyses showed that each species possesses a unique multiple Lower Guinean Central African TRF plant species. The set of environmental variables that explains patterns in genetic idiosyncratic nature of genetic structure, population divergence, variation (Fig. 5), favoring our hypothesis H1b. demographic histories, and the environmental traits underlying Finally, given our variety of sampled species (SI Appendix, patterns of diversity across our seven species demonstrates that Table S2), we show that differences in life-history traits and phe- each has responded to past climate change differently, favoring notypes resulted in alternative evolutionary histories, supporting a relaxed species-dependent refugia hypothesis (7, 16–18). We previous studies (18, 48, 57). However, it was also suggested that show that similar patterns of genetic structure across species, species sharing life-history traits or phenotypes, such as habit such as the North–South discontinuity, are likely the result of dif- or dispersal syndromes, could respond in a similar evolutionary ferent underlying causal factors (66) (i.e., asynchronous origins manner to past climate change (7). We show that this isn’t nec- [Fig. 3] and varied demographic histories [Fig. 4]). Therefore, essarily true. For example, the three tree species sampled here rather than aiming for general patterns, it may be more perti- show differences in terms of spatial genetic structure and fac- nent to understand individual species’ ecology and evolutionary tors explaining the distribution of diversity (Figs. 2 A–C and 5), history, before combining these to understand how TRFs have though the temporal origin of this structure did exhibit some sim- responded to past climate change. Our framework would allow ilarities (Fig. 3). Differences were also evident for species with similar studies in Southeast Asian or Amazonian rain forests potentially similar dispersal syndromes. Given morphology to investigate whether similar, species-dependent patterns are (58, 59) and field observation (ref. 60 and personal observation found. Our understanding of individualistic responses will be by T.L.P.C.), A. mannii and S. mannii are often dispersed by ele- critical if we are to predict general responses to ongoing climate phants (SI Appendix, Table S2), which can travel long distances change and has important implications if we want to conserve and have a strong effect on population structure and recruitment those species most at risk. (61, 62). However, population structure and evolutionary dynam- ics of these species fall at the two extremes of our study (Figs. 2 B Materials and Methods and G, 3, and 4 A, C, and H), although geography is an important Sample Collection, Library Preparation, and DNA Sequencing. We sampled factor in both species (Fig. 5). and sequenced a total of 725 individuals from four Annonaceae and three TRFs contain an estimated 50% of the world’s plant biodiver- palm (Arecaceae) species across most of their ranges in Cameroon, Gabon, sity (63). As much as one-third of the tropical African flora is and Republic of the Congo (one specimen of P. barterii from Nigeria). At potentially threatened with extinction (64), so it is critical that each collection site, we surveyed for the presence of the seven species, sam- we understand the origins of diversity in this region (65). Our pling them if found. This typically resulted in three to seven species per

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[v1.8 sites. bcftools monomorphic minor using excluded and and SNPs SNPs (>10), filter biallelic individuals only to across (>0.01) depth frequency average (>25), in allele depth (>2), (>40%) HaplotypeCaller depth quality program mapping by by the quality SNPs to using filtered reads We SNPs (69)]. Duplicates paired called [v4.0 GATK (68)]. cleaned, we [v0.7.12 and our BWA removed, mapped using were We com- references and file. species-specific built reference new, were these a contigs form consensus to out loci, filtering bined paralogous After against. and reads coverage map to low species each for psuedoreference a Calling. SNP and palms both for 27 ref. of See that species. 60. 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EVOLUTION recommended (79, 80), based on fossil evidence from Futabanthus and performed ensemble modeling using all models. We then projected models Endressinia. (of all algorithms) into the past, performing a further ensemble modeling The analysis was run for 100 million generations, sampling every 10,000 step. Finally we converted ensemble projections to binary presencevabsence generations to generate a posterior distribution of 10,000 trees. Effective maps using KAPPA and TSS, allowing us to identify areas suitable for each sample-size values were examined by using Tracer (v1.7) (81), and the appro- species under a given statistic and present or past climate model. Further priate amount of burn-in was removed. Multiple runs were performed and information on our ENM approach can be found in SI Appendix, and details combined by using logcombiner. Treeannotator was used to generate a of model adequacy can be found in SI Appendix, Table S6. maximum-clade credibility tree, keeping target node heights. We repeated this process for 23 palm taxa, spread across subfamilies Demographic Inference. We used Stairway Plot (34) (v2), a model-flexible Arecoideae, Ceroxyloideae, and Coryphoideae and including two or three approach that uses site-frequency spectra (SFS), to infer changes in effec- samples for each focal species. We rooted trees on Coryphoideae taxa (21). tive population size (Ne) over time. We generated VCF files for each cluster, We used three fossils for calibration, following priors in Couvreur et al. (21), but did not apply a minor-allele frequency filter to avoid skewing the SFS. but modifying the prior for crown Hyphaeninae due to a recently published Stairway Plot uses SNP counts to infer changes in Ne, so the removal of fossil, Hyphaeneocarpon indicum (82) (SI Appendix, Table S4). SNPs with missing data may skew counts. We generated SFS for each clus- ter by calculating the minor-allele frequency at each SNP and multiplying Dated StarBEAST and DENIM Trees. To date divergence among genetic clus- this by the mean number of haploid samples, following Burgarella et al. ters in our focal species, we used a Bayesian approach involving the (87). This resulted in a new SFS that used all observed site frequencies and multispecies coalescent, implemented in StarBEAST (83). To improve mixing, minimized the number of SNPs removed. The total number of samples was we used the StarBEASTWithSTACEYOps template in BEAST2. When build- slightly reduced based on the amount of missing data. Breakpoints were ing a tree for each species, we included the closest outgroup taxa from the calculated as recommended in the manual. We used two-thirds of sites for backbone trees. We randomly chose five individuals per genetic cluster in training and performed 200 bootstraps. The number of observed sites was the focal species and defined each set of five as a different population. calculated as the total length of the SECAPR pseudoreference (see above) Subsetting in this way was previously shown to represent general patterns for each species. We used an angiosperm wide mutation rate of 5.35e−9 well (50). Outgroup individuals were assigned to a separate species (multiple sites per year (88) and a generation time of 15 y, based on the generation species if necessary). time of the Annonaceae species Annona crassiflora (89). For palms, we used Like for the backbone trees, 32 loci were selected for each species based a mutation rate of 2.5e−8 and a generation time of 10 y (90). A longer gen- on root-to-tip variance. We used a constant population function and a coa- eration time of up to 50 y has been proposed for some of our study species lescent exponential population tree model. Given that our analyses were (91). Previous work in A. affinis (50) has shown that increasing generation among very close relatives and that we limited root-to-tip variance, we time does not change demographic trends and has only minor effects on chose to use strict clock models for each locus. These models are appropri- the timing of events, though Ne was markedly scaled down as a result, so ate for recently diverged lineages, given the expected low substitution-rate values of Ne should be interpreted with caution. variation and improved computational feasibility (84, 85) when using rela- tively large sequence datasets. We also tested using lognormal uncorrelated db-RDA. We used db-RDA (35) to uncover how genetic variation could be relaxed clock models for each locus for A. affinis and found similar ages to attributed to different geographic, climatic, soil, and stability variables. those obtained with the strict clock (SI Appendix, Fig. S30). Genetic distances were calculated by using principal coordinates analy- We added uniform priors on the root where the upper and lower bounds sis and used as a response variable. We used Moran Eigenvector’s Maps were set to the 95% HPD intervals from the relevant node in the appropriate (MEMs) to summarize spatial structure in the data (referred to as geogra- backbone tree. The analysis was then run as specified previously for the phy throughout). Explanatory variables included those variables used for backbone trees. Given that the Podococcus are sister species, we analyzed ENMs, MEMs, several variables related to stable areas, and US Department them together, while all other species were analyzed separately. of Agriculture soil taxonomy (SI Appendix, Table S5). We pruned correlated We also used DENIM (33) to account for migration among different variables from each dataset and then built db-RDA models for each species genetic clusters. We used the same input dataset as for StarBEAST, modi- by adding and removing variables in order to maximize the explained fying priors in accordance with the DENIM manual. This yielded topologies variance. Further details about this approach can be found in SI Appendix. and divergence times contingent on migration events between taxa for indi- vidual loci, which can be compared to StarBEAST results. Initial runs revealed Data Availability. Data associated with this manuscript are stored on Dryad that uniform divergence-time priors were incompatible with palm species, (92). Scripts used for analyses can be found on GitHub (93). Sequence data so normal priors were used instead. In this case, the 2.5% and 97.5% val- have been deposited in the Sequence Read Archive (94). ues of the normal distribution encompassed the 95% HPD intervals of the corresponding node in the palm backbone tree. See SI Appendix for more ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Prof. Moutsambote, Raoul Niangadouma, information on our dating approaches. and Theophile´ Ayole for help in the field. We also thank Olivier Hardy and his team for sharing samples of G. suaveolens. We thank the Institut ENMs. We constructed ENMs for each of the seven species using the R pack- de Recherche pour le Developpement´ (IRD) itrop High-Performance Com- age “biomod2” (86) and climatic, altitude, and soil variables (SI Appendix, puting (HPC) (South Green Platform) at IRD Montpellier for providing HPC Table S5). We collated known occurrence points for each species from resources that have contributed to the research results reported within our field data, including additional individuals beyond those that were this paper. We thank the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique et Technologique (CENAREST), the Agence National des Parques Nationaux sequenced for genetic data (1,691 individuals total; SI Appendix). The back- (ANPN), and Prof. Bourobou Bourobou for research permits (AR0020/16 and ground area for each species consisted of a 5◦ buffer around occurrence AR0036/15 [CENAREST] and AE16014 [ANPN]). Fieldwork in Cameroon was points. We inferred ENMs using five different model algorithms: gener- undertaken under the “accord cadre de cooperation” between the IRD and alized linear model, boosted regression trees, artificial neural networks, Ministere` de la Recherche Scientifique et de l’Innovation. We thank Prof. random forest, and MAXENT.Phillips (maxent). We evaluated model fit by Bouka Biona of the Institut National de Recherche en Sciences Excates et using Cohen’s kappa (KAPPA) and true skill statistic (TSS). Following this, we Naturelles of the Republic of Congo for research permits.

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