Paranormal Misinterpretations of Vision Phenomena Fabricating History, Part 2: False Messages in Stone Exeter UFO Incident Solved 9/11 from a Decade Later

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The Magazine for Science & Reason Vol. 35 No. 6 | November/December 2011

Paranormal Misinterpretations of Vision Phenomena Fabricating History, Part 2: False Messages in Stone Exeter UFO Incident Solved 9/11 from a Decade Later

Published by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:42 PM Page 2

AT THE CEN TERFOR IN QUIRY –TRANSNATIONAL

Paul Kurtz, Founder Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Schroeder, Chairman Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow www.csicop.org Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed itor-in-chief, Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, Astronomy and director of the Hopkins New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine The Skeptic magazine (UK) Observatory, Williams College Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Newton, MA Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist; au thor; con sum er City Univ. of New York–Lehman College ad vo cate, Al len town, PA Harriet Hall, MD, family physician; investigator, Stev en Pink er, cog nitive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Willem Betz,MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Puyallup, WA Ir ving Bie der man, psychol o gist, Univ. of C.E.M. Han sel, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Wales Philip Plait, astronomer; lecturer; writer South ern CA David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer; au thor; ex ec u tive Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Columbia Univ. di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly Times science correspondent Doug las R. Hofstad ter, pro fes sor of human Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. California, Santa Cruz of Eng land, Bris tol Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Profes sor of Phys ics and Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laborato- pro fes sor of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ries, Albuquerque, NM Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Le on Jar off, sci en ces ed itor emer i tus, Time founding member; founder, James Randi Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist; pro fes sor emer i tus Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Educational Foundation of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal Public Policy, Washington, DC Wal la ce Sam pson, MD, clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, Ser gei Ka pit za, former ed i tor, Rus sian edi tion, Sacramento City College; writer Sci en tif ic Amer i can Stan ford Univ.; ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Al ter na tive Med i cine for science education, Howard Hughes Medical Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny Institute, Madison, WI Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Richard Saunders, vice president, Australian Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; chairman, Recycled Energy Development, director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Sydney, Australia Westmont, IL Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist; ex ec u tive John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist; ed i tor, Na tion al biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate di rect or, Nation al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u cation Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer; di rect or, K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Univ. of Southern California’s Annenberg Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy, El ie A. Shneour, bi o chem ist; au thor; president and School of Journalism SUNY at Buffalo research director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic; pro fes sor Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer La Jol la, CA emer i tus of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. No bel lau re ate in phys ics Mountain View, CA Geof frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Atlanta, GA Dick Smith,film pro duc er; pub lish er; Ter rey Hills, Univ. of Utrecht, the Neth er lands Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and N.S.W., Aus tral ia Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; of Phi los o phy and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. Berke ley professor of human development and applied psychology, Uni v. of Toronto Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Eliz a beth Loft us*, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Univ. of CA, Ir vine Rob ert Stein er, ma gi cian; au thor; El Cer ri to, CA Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Association and Rationalist International Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Mex i co City of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Karen Stollznow*, linguist; skeptical investigator; Plymouth, Exeter, UK Brown Univ. writer; podcaster Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, Jill Cor nell Tar ter,as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. M.I.T. Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, Moun tain View, CA Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Car ol Tav ris,psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA SE Louisiana Univ. Cen ter An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Los Al tos Hills, CA Berke ley Per al ta, NM Kend rick Fra zier*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Neil de Grasse Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City Christopher C. French, professor, Department the Netherlands Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine of Psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Medaille Col lege con trib ut ing ed i tor Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London Steven Novella, MD, assistant professor Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Yves Gal i fret, executive secretary, of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Univ. of Tex as at Austin; No bel lau re ate Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, l’Union Rationaliste E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and Nye Labs Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia evolutionary biology, Har vard Univ. James E. Oberg, sci ence writer (Italy); research fellow of CICAP, Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. the Italian skeptics group Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), of Hert ford shire, England Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Mar burg, Ger ma ny Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, Department of Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe Sci en ces Univ. Pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine In sti tute; No bel lau re ate Robert L. Park,professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ.

* Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion only.) SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:42 PM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir er November/December 2011 | Vol. 35, No. 6

38 COLUMNS Did Shakespeare FROM THE EDITOR From Shakespeare to American Write ‘Shakespeare’? Archaeology...... 4 Much Ado about Nothing JOE NICKELL NEWS AND COMMENT The Age of Denialism: When Beliefs Trump Scientific Facts/Pseudoscience, 44 Mythbusting, Evolution Gain Attention Paranormal Misinterpretations of World’s Top Science Journalists/ of Vision Phenomena Science Recognizes Morrison’s Fight against Doom Hysteria/Psychics Fail MICHAEL MAUSER Tests on ABC Special ‘Beyond Belief’/ New Jersey Supreme Court Overhauls Eye- 48 witness ID Rules/For tean Author Hilary Civilizations Lost and Found: Evans (1929–2011)/SensaSlim Lawsuit Seeks to Silence Skeptics/AAAS Con- Fabricating History demns Personal Attacks on Climate Sci- Part Two: False Messages entists/Budd Hopkins (1931–2011): in Stone UFO Abductionist/Skeptic’s Dictionary BRADLEY T. LEPPER, KENNETH L. FEDER, for Kids...... 5 TERRY A. BARNHART, and IN VES TI GA TIVE FILES DEBORAH A. BOLNICK Psychic Connections: Investigating in Hungary JOE NICK ELL...... 23 COMMENTARY NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD 14 The Lost Girl: 9/11: Perspectives from Investigating a Case of “Psychic Detection” a Decade Later MAS SI MO POLIDORO ...... 26 CLARK R. CHAPMAN AND ALAN W. HARRIS THINK ING ABOUT SCI ENCE The Hopeless War against SPECIAL REPORT Intelligent Design Creationism MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI...... 28 16 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ‘Exeter Incident’ Solved! UFO Mothership and A Classic UFO Case, Fleet over London Forty-Five Years ‘Cold’ ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 29 JAMES MCGAHA AND JOE NICKELL THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE Have You Had Your INTERVIEW Antioxidants Today? STEVEN NOVELLA ...... 32 20 SCIENCE WATCH ‘Getting People to Think The Effect of Teachers Unions on More Deeply’ Student Performance An Interview with Miracle Detective KENNETH KRAUSE...... 34 Scientist Indre Viskontas SHARON HILL SKEPTICAL INQUIREE Kinoki Drains Wallet, Not Toxins BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 37 FOLLOW-UP REVIEW NEW AND NOTABLE...... 61 55 Slaying the Beast LETTERS TO THE EDI TOR...... 62 Disputing ‘Seven Deadly of the Gévaudan Medical Hypotheses’ BLAKE SMITH...... 60 THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 DAVID H. GORSKI | MARK CRISLIP Monsters of the Gévaudan: AVRUM Z. BLUMING and CAROL TAVRIS e Making of a Beast by Jay M. Smith HARRIET HALL | REYNOLD SPECTOR SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/28/11 11:16 AM Page 4

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, From Shakespeare to American Archaeology Thom as Cas ten, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Joe Nick ell, Amar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin ur indefatigable Senior Research Fellow Joe Nickell takes on a claim in CON SULT ING ED I TORS Sus an J. Black more, Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E. C. Krupp, our cover story that goes back centuries but is new to the pages of SI: the Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man bizarre notion that William Shakespeare didn’t actually write the plays 0 CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, and poems attributed to him. If it seems to readers that Nickell has expertise in Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow almost everything, they may be right. In this case his PhD in English literature DEPUTY ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford and his experience with claims about literary fraud serve him well. But this is MAN A GING ED I TOR Julia Lavarnway no stuffy academic paper. It’s a fresh, readable, and fun look at how anti-Strat- ART DI RECT OR Chri sto pher Fix fordian pseudoscholars examine data “through the looking glass,” twisting all PRO DUC TION Paul E. Loynes reason, logic, and evidence to see what they want to see. Sound familiar? The ASSISTANT EDITOR Julia Burke processes have much in common with the other kinds of pseudoknowledge we WEB DEVELOPER Jon Childress examine regularly in these pages. WEBMASTER Matthew Licata PUBLISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr Nickell then joins with astronomer and retired military pilot James McGaha COR PO RATE COUN SEL Steven Fox to solve—I don’t think that is too strong a word—a classic UFO case going back BUSINESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau champ forty-five years, the “Exeter” incident in New Hampshire. FIS CAL OF FI CER Paul Pau lin Michael Mauser gives us an informed and fascinating look at vision phenom- DATA OF FI CER Jacalyn Mohr ena—mostly processes right inside our eyes—that people sometimes misinter- STAFF Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, Roe Giambrone, Leah Gordon, An tho ny San ta pret as paranormal. Lu cia, John Sul li van, Vance Vi grass We also continue the three-part series “Civilizations Lost and Found: Fabri- COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Michelle Blackley cating History” that began in our previous issue. Archaeologists Ken neth L. IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS Thom as Flynn Feder (a longtime CSI fellow and author of two fine books on archaeological DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga

frauds) and Bradley T. Lepper (lead author of this issue’s segment, “False Mes- The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial jour nal of the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, sages in Stone”), historian Terry A. Barnhart, and anthropologist Deborah A. an in ter na tional organ i za tion. Bolnick are providing an extraordinary examination of notorious claims that

Egyptians, Hebrews, and Celts, among others, left their mark in pre-Columbian The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER(ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi month - North America. In doing so our authors correct numerous distortions, including ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 Rensch Road, Am herst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od icals post age paid some outright fraudulent claims, presented in the DVD The Lost Civilizations at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of fi ces. Sub scrip tion of North America. And they give us a nicely nuanced look at how real archaeol- pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. Ca na di an and for eign or ders: ogists evaluate evidence about the real people who populated North America Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac com pa - before Columbus. ny or ders; please add US$10 per year for ship ping. Ca na di an and for eign cus tom ers are en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter - Card. Canada Publications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. * * * Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box 4332, Station Rd., Toronto , ON M5W 3J4. Robert Sheaffer has compiled a book of the first In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of the two decades of his “Psychic Vibrations” columns Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636- from the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. I am pleased to 1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Email: [email protected] report they are graced by more than a hundred of Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to rial in quir ies should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, the delightful drawings our longtime illustrator 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Fax: 505-828- Rob Pudim has drawn for SI over the years. It is 2080. EMAIL: [email protected]. Be fore sub mit - ting any man u script, please con sult our Guide for Au thors for fun and informative to see both together. You can styles, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal re quire ments. order the book, Psychic Vibrations: Skeptical Giggles It is on our website at www.csi cop.org/pub lications/guide. from the Skeptical Inquirer, via Sheaffer’s blog, Or you may send a re quest to the edi tor. Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP TI- BadUFOs.com. CALIN QUIR ERrep re sent the views and work of in di vid u al au thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse - * * * ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stat ed. Cop y right ©2011 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All I hope to see many of you at our CSIcon confer- rights re served. The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ERis availa ble on 16mm mi - cro film, 35mm mi cro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni - ence in New Orleans October 27–30. It marks a resumption of Committee for ver si ty Micro films In ter na tion al and is indexed in the Read - Skeptical Inquiry/SKEPTICAL INQUIRER conferences. Our last was the “Hoaxes, er’s Guide to Pe ri odi cal Lit er a ture. Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad dressed Myths, and Manias” conference in Albuquerque in 2003. to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. —KENDRICK FRAZIER Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716- 636-1425). Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s ad dress, with six weeks ad vance no - tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may not speak on be half of CSI or the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER. Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER, P.O. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. “...promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 5

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

The Age of Denialism: When Beliefs Trump Scientific Facts Kendrick Frazier

We’ve all seen the face of denialism in skeptics), science journalists operate at an unconscious level. Most of us don’t discourse involving politically and so- under the basic assumption that more stray far from the beliefs of our friends.” cially charged scientific issues. Climate and better information is always prefer- When facts contradict beliefs, cognitive change, evolution, vaccines, AIDS, the able. They provide accurate scientific in- dissonance then leads us to deny the 9/11 attacks, the Holo caust—they’ve all formation to the public and hope it will facts. “We will selectively filter out the attracted powerful denialist movements inform scientific understanding about facts that counter our views.” that, from the viewpoint of most science- important public issues. With denialism, Debora MacKenzie, a writer in the oriented people, seem especially resistant it doesn’t work that way. Brussels office of New Scientist and au- to scientific evidence. As I somewhat plaintively titled my thor of a 2010 cover article “Living in Why has denialism become such a editorial in our September/October 2011 Denial,” reinforced that point. “Most big obstacle to scientific understanding? issue (written before this conference), denialists simply think the way most What is responsible for its rise and stay- “Who Really Wants Reliable Sci en tific people think—in terms of feelings, fa- ing power? What, if anything, can be Information?” done about it? And what is the role of “Telling people with strong partisan the science journalist in confronting it? beliefs that something is not true rarely Like skeptics and scientists, science convinces them,” science journalist Shan- Providing people journalists find themselves continually kar Vedantam, author of The Hid den facing denialist arguments from their Brain, told the audience. “In fact, refuta- who hold strong audiences and the public. The problems tion causes the belief to go up.” beliefs reliable denialism raises are increasingly trouble- And there you have it. Providing peo- some, and if research cited at a re cent ple who hold strong beliefs reliable infor- information that might panel discussion on the topic is any mation that might undermine those be- undermine those guide, the situation may be virtually in- liefs causes them to cling to those beliefs tractable. Nevertheless, some positive even more strongly. beliefs causes them suggestions did emerge, among them to Vedantam, who recently moved from to cling to those tell better stories—compelling true sto- the Washington Post to National Public beliefs even ries dramatizing the scientific facts. Radio (see his SI piece, “Difficulty in These were among the conclusions Debunking Myths Rooted in the Way more strongly. of a provocative consideration of “Jour- Mind Works,” January/February 2008), nalism in the Age of Denial” at the gave an informed tutorial on denialism World Conference of Science Journal- via Skype from his home in the United ists in Doha, Qatar, June 27–29, 2011. States (at 4 AM his time) when a family The panel was organized and moder- illness kept him from traveling to Qatar. miliar stories, and their own group ated by Cristine Russell, president of He described research showing that identity,” she emphasized. When they the Council for the Advancement of rather than being formed by evidence, hear a conflicting claim, cognitive dis- Science Writing, former Washington our beliefs are tied to our loyalties to sonance takes over. “It is far easier to Post science reporter, and senior fellow ideas and causes. Emotional ties predict deny the science than to accept that at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science what one is willing to believe. “We de- your whole worldview is wrong.” and International Affairs. velop friendships and loyalties that shape Yves Sciama, a freelancer from France, Like scientists and educators (and our beliefs. This process largely happens wondered whether the honeymoon be-

Skeptical Inquirer | November / December 2011 5 SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 6

reveal to us (his example: the Sun seems The panelists did offer a few sugges- to go round Earth; my example: green- tions. Science journalists’ job is to com- house gases being added to the atmos- municate the science effectively, Mac - phere are invisible and so are easily ig- Kenzie noted. That being the case, and nored). A second stage relates to the if facts don’t sway denialists and others complexity of scientific evidence, espe- who hold strong views, she suggests we cially about predicting the future. He sug- “speak the language of anecdotes, feel- gests that much of the doubt about ings, and group identity.” She was seri- climate change is a different kind of ous. Stories have a much stronger im- “skepticism” (about prediction) than pact on people than facts and evidence, that exhibited, for instance, by Holo - and therefore effective science commu- caust deniers. nication should employ these same tools (“Skepticism” is itself another mis- to get across the science. She called for leading term in this context. Science- using “familiar narratives”; for instance, oriented, evidence-based skeptics prefer the fact that families have actually lost to call those who don’t accept good sci- children to diseases that could have been entific evidence doubters or deniers.) prevented by vaccinations. That’s a nar- Shankar Vedantam, author of The Hid den Brain He and the others seemed to agree rative that is not only powerful but true. tween science and society earlier in the that denialism is worsening. “It is hard Science-oriented, “just the facts, twentieth century is now coming to an to believe that denialism is not expand- please” people may feel that tactic is be- end. “Scientist-bashing is becoming more ing,” Vedantam said. He noted that in neath them, but MacKenzie said it is common,” Sciama noted, whereas it was regard to global climate change, disbe- not. “It may be uncomfortable, but if almost unheard of decades earlier. lief in the United States is going up. stories help communicate the science, The main concern of Philip Hilts, (Will this summer’s prolonged record then do it.” head of the Knight Science Journalism high heat across much of the United Still another constructive suggestion Fellowships at MIT, is the “deliberate States change that perception? Not came from an audience member and misuse of nonsense.” He said tactics used likely, if Texas Governor Rick Perry’s risk-communications expert, David Ro- by the tobacco companies from 1953 to strange anti-global warming—and anti- peik of Harvard. (He spoke at another 1994 to try to counter the evidence that evolution—comments just days after panel session on risk reporting.) Ropeik, smoking causes cancer are now being announcing he was a candidate for pres- in his comments to the panel and in a used by oil companies to try to counter ident are any guide.) brief conversation afterward with the the evidence of climate change. The to- Sciama raised the interesting issue of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, said denialism is bacco companies tried to assert that there differing national attitudes toward cli- a very real thing, but it can and should was always doubt. If necessary, they mate change. Surveys show that in Brazil, be quantified, and then managed, like would “buy a scientist to say so.” 92 percent of the people say global warm- any risk-versus-perception gap. Dealing Now, with climate change, Hilts said, ing is taking place, and only 5 percent with it in this straightforward way is an the vested interests are again “deliberately think mankind is not contributing to effective and rational approach. He manipulating for gain.” He said the role global warming. “In the developing elaborates in his 2010 book How Risky of science journalists is to “chase down countries trust in science is comparable Is It, Really? Why Our Fears Don’t Al- the folks” who are misusing and misrep- to that in the U.S. in the 1950s,” Sciama ways Match the Facts. resenting the scientific evidence. said. Still, why denial of global warming Science journalists will no doubt keep Vedantam likewise reserved his harsh- dominates “in Anglo-Saxon countries— writing their good science stories. Per - est judgments for those who “actively and U.S./U.K./Australia—re mains to be ex - haps the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER’s experi- actually disbelieve” what they know to be plored.” ence in dealing with the paranormal and true, the tobacco industry again being the If reliable scientific facts don’t have any pseudoscience has something to offer leading example. positive effect in changing the views of here. We have no illusions that our eval- Yet Vedantam noted that denialism is deniers—and in fact cause them to cling uations will persuade hardcore paranor- not monolithic. He called for a slightly to their beliefs even more strongly— malist believers. But opinion leaders in more nuanced, “granular” analysis. In fact where does that leave us? It’s a rather science, education, and media—and a he said using the term denialism can be bleak picture. It is discouraging not only vast segment of the public who do want name-calling. (But what else to call it? I for science journalists but also for every- good, reliable information—tell us they ask.) Denialism comes in different de- one concerned that we lack well-in- find them useful. Some even express grees, and the levels shouldn’t always be formed citizens in modern de moc racies deep appreciation. Denialism won’t dis- conflated. Stage one is disbelieving the where scientific and technical questions appear, but good information still has a evidence by trusting only what our senses affect virtually every national issue. thirsty audience.

6 Volume 35 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 7

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Pseudoscience, Mythbusting, Evolution Gain Attention of World’s Top Science Journalists

KENDRICK FRAZIER

The World Conference of Science Journ - alists in Doha, Qatar, June 27–29, could at times have been mistaken for a classic skeptics conference. This is not altogether surprising, considering that science journalists, as the intermediaries between scientists and the public, encounter the same kinds of public misunderstanding and misperceptions (plus outright distortions) about science and the natural world that skeptics combat. More than seven hundred science journalists from ninety countries—half of them from Africa, Asia, and the

Middle East—met in a sprawling new ‘Investigating Pseudoscience’ panelists (from left): Frazier, Vágó, Agostinelli, Federico Kukso of Argentina (translating), and Sergeev. university/academic research complex Another speaker, István Vágó, former of the Qatar Foundation on the out- head of the Hungarian skeptics group skirts of Doha to consider issues they and a prominent Hungarian television encounter in their professional lives. It Sergeev emphasized host, sees some of the same problems in was the first such conference outside the that in Russia much Hungary. After scientific socialism was Western world. pseudoscience is banned, faith in science declined and I participated in a session on “Investi- not just annoying the population’s new freedoms resulted gating Pseudoscience” with other skeptics in a rise of pseudoscience and scandals. and science journalists from Russia, misconceptions and Vágó blamed television for part of the Hungary, and Argentina. Moderator Ta- misunderstandings problem: television provides easy an- tiana Puchigina, who works in Moscow swers to hard questions. He also la - for the online news site Science and but “also a new kind mented that un healthy people waste so Technology in Russia, told an interviewer of criminal activity much money on worthless and bogus afterward that she arranged the session dangerous for science pseudo-medical treatments. after seeing how severe of a problem Alejandro Agostinelli, a freelance sci- pseudoscience is in Russia. (Nine years and society.” ence journalist in Argentina, de scribed ago SI devoted most of an entire issue his experiences in active skepticism. to “Science and Pseudoscience in Rus- $50 million lawsuit. Among the three is From 1990 to 1994 he was a member of sia,” July/August 2002, and it is clear Eduard Krug lyakov, who wrote one of CAIRP (the Argentinian Center for In- that the situation hasn’t improved much those 2002 SI articles. vestigation and Refuta tion of Pseudo- since then.) Sergeev emphasized that in Russia science), the first Latin Amer ican organ- Alexander Sergeev, science editor of much pseudoscience is not just annoy- ization with the same goals as the the popular Russian magazine Vokrug ing misconceptions and misunderstand- American CSICOP, now our Commit- Sveta and science observer for Russian ings but “also a new kind of criminal ac- tee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI). The Radio Liberty, agreed with her bleak as- tivity dangerous for science and society.” group worked closely with the local sessment. He reported that after three It is carried out for profit, and it involves media in examining alternative medicine, well-known Russian physicists, all mem- corruption of public officials and other folk healing, astrology, mental control, bers of the Russian Academy of Sciences criminal acts. It is a highly troubling mystic healing powers, and UFOs. and its commission on pseudoscience issue. In Russia, he lamented, “pseudo- Among its successful activities: in 1995 and science fraud, publicly exposed the science is developing dynamically, and CAIRP used experts and props to dem - activities of a pseudoscientist close to the the old counter-actions against it are onstrate that the filmed autopsy of the leaders of Russia, they were hit with a now ineffective.” Roswell “ET” was a fraud.

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For my part, I offered an overview of Busters was just one of the forums de- take on important stories, and they have science and pseudoscience in modern scribed. Julia Wilson and Leonor Sierra a role and responsibility to bust myths. America. I treated anti-science as a spe- of Sense About Science, a U.K. group He called it “kick-ass journalism.” cial case that is especially virulent in that promotes public myth-busting by That session was followed by a ple- public policy today, in which propo- young people, headed that discussion nary on “Evolution and the Evolving nents are actively hostile to scientific along with science journalists Ylann World of Science Journalism.” Scien tific ideas—or at least to those perceived to Schemm of Elsevier in the Nether lands, American Editor Mariette DeChristina, yield answers incompatible with their Alaa Ibrahim of American University in past president of the National Associa - ideology and beliefs. I urged science Cairo, and Pallab Ghosh of the BBC in tion of Science Writers, moderated a journalists to consider investigative ar- the United Kingdom. Wilson de scribed panel whose members came from South ticles about pseudoscience as an oppor- an effort in which a group of young peo- Africa, Argentina, and the United States. tunity not only to expose bogus claims ple in the United Kingdom decided to But the lead talk was by our Committee but also to inform people in an enter- challenge companies’ claims about for Skeptical Inquiry colleague Eugenie taining way about real science and how “detoxing.” They asked what evidence C. Scott of the National Center for Sci- it differs from pseudoscience. supported the detox claims; when the ence Education. She noted how the jour- That session was followed by a re lated companies admitted they had none, the nalistic principle of “balance” can be a one with the intriguing title “Warriors group publicized that fact (with tran- problem in reporting on evolution. As she Against Claptrap: Are Myth-Busters the scripts of the responses) and gained wide says, fairness and balance apply to opinion. New Generation of Civic Scientist?” attention. “It is not an opinion that the Earth goes New myth-busting groups and efforts Veteran BBC science broadcaster Ghosh around the Sun. ... It is not a matter of are spring ing up all over. This panel ad- concluded with some philosophical wis- opinion that living things have ancient dressed the impact of some widely pub- dom about the nature of the profession. ancestors.” licized myth-busting campaigns that Science journalists’ prime responsibility is (The “balance” problem is well un- have captured the public imagination. to act in the interests of their audience. derstood by science journalists, but it re- The popular U.S. television show Myth- Sometimes they need to be brave and mains a serious issue in general journalism, where non-expert reporters frequently feel they must give cre- ationist views equal weight to Science Recognizes Morrison’s the long-accepted scientific facts of Fight against Doom Hysteria evolution.) Scott forthrightly condemned a Committee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow 2009 incident in which a noted science and frequent SKEPTICAL INQUIRER con- magazine, the British weekly New Sci- tributor David Morrison is the subject of the newsmaker interview article in the entist, published a cover announcing in August 19 Science “as the scientific com- large print, “DARWIN WAS munity’s unofficial defender of reason WRONG.” (The article itself was again the onslaught of . . . ‘cosmopho- about horizontal gene transfer and, says bia’”—irrational fears of end-of-world Scott, wasn’t the real problem.) doom from harmless comets (such as “The New Scientist cover is simply Elenin) and nonexistent rogue planets wrong,” Scott bluntly told the assem- (such as Nibiru). The article chronicles bled journalists. “This cover was ex- Morrison’s tireless efforts to correct tremely irresponsible.” She noted that falsehoods and misinformation about just two days later opponents of evo- supposed astronomically caused im- lution on the Texas Board of Educa- pending doomsdays. It can be read on - tion cited the cover as evidence that line at www.sciencemag .org/content/333/6045/928.summary? evolution is wrong. New Scientist Ed- sid=0b572d2f-f680-4303-8e6d71b6d0 itor Roger Highfield lamely re- 9820ac. sponded at the time that he knew cre- This article follows on an earlier ationists would probably “take it out one, in the same series in Science ( June of context.” This was hardly any sur- 10, 2011), on frequent SI contributor prise to Scott, who wondered why he John Mashey’s efforts to combat false- then did it. “Cover the science,” she hoods and misinformation about cli- said, “but don’t make it easy for cre- mate change. ationists to take it out of context.”

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Psychics Fail Tests on told the parents of missing child Shawn Hornbeck in 2004 that their son was ABC Special ‘Beyond Belief’ dead—only to have him found alive and well in 2007. Banachek called Browne’s BRYAN FARHA actions “horrible” and “disgusting.” In The ABC television network aired a ment, which began with “house healers” this segment, Banachek did a brilliant one-hour Primetime Nightline special in Oakland, California, performing an job of demonstrating to Chang how to on August 17, “Beyond Belief,” in exorcism of sorts at the request of a real duplicate the effects of alleged psychic which psychics failed test after test. To estate agent. The house in question ap- ability. Asked about people who claim the skeptic, the psychics’ demonstra- parently wouldn’t sell because of “bad to communicate with the dead, Ba- tions were weak, including the usual energy” from the previous owners. The nachek replied, “I think those people are cold reading techniques, guessing, div- property still did not sell—even after scum. I really, really think they’re scum.” ination, suggestion, and telling people mediums (trained at the Berkeley Psy- David Wright did the final segment what they want to hear. Much of the chic Institute) “cleansed” the house. on “psychic moms” such as Allison Du - unsuspecting public, however, might This segment was basically devoid of a Bois (from The Real Housewives of Bev- find this deception believable. Of par- skeptical perspective. erly Hills), who inspired the television ticular acclaim was the superb perform- show Medium, and Rebecca Rosen. ance of Banachek—a magician and the These mediums emphasize the subject’s administrator of the James Randi Ed- mother in their readings. This was clearly ucational Foundation’s Million Dollar the program’s weakest segment because Paranormal Challenge. it made no attempt to provide a skeptical The network used an unusual three- perspective of the medium’s reading of host format. Elliot skeptically reported Wright. In fact, Wright claimed their The host of the first segment was that all information readings were accurate and revealed “de- Good Morning America anchor Josh El- connected to tails that don’t pop up on Google.” But after the show’s conclusion, the pertinent liot. He received a reading from “medi- Van Praagh’s apparent um” James Van Praagh. Van Praagh details from the reading were discovered started with the usual cold reading tech- “hits” was available in an earlier New York Times wedding an- niques, such as telling Elliot about his on the Internet. nouncement, which was posted on Twit- childhood, “There’s a sense of being Chalk this one up to ter by a user. Overall, ABC did a decent job of wanted.” Van Praagh proceeded to sup- research and homework. ply one accurate insight after another— fair presentation, and there was adequate and far more specifically than when cold skeptical representation. Bana chek’s reading. But Elliot skeptically reported magic, coupled with his critical thinking that all information connected to Van approach, made for the perfect educa- Praagh’s apparent “hits” was available on tional tool. He was brilliant. Removing the Internet. Chalk this one up to re- the segments by Wright, who was too search and homework. The next segment was presented quick to believe, would have made for an In the next segment, presented by again by Juju Chang. Twenty psychic de- even more skeptical program. Juju Chang, several contenders tried to tectives had claimed to be able to find a The day after the program aired, the snare James Randi’s million dollar missing child. Sixteen months later, the James Randi Educational Foundation prize, including a medium who failed child was still missing. Credit Chang for challenged the show’s psychics to be to divine the only dead person’s photo asking very skeptical questions to some tested for the million dollar prize under (Elvis) in a series of envelopes, and a of the psychics. Banachek returned for randomized, controlled conditions with - tarot card reader who failed to match this segment and did an excellent job of out the use of cold reading. Said Chal- live subjects with their biographies. explaining how psychics waste authori- lenge director Banachek, “We’re issuing Even though the failed mediums ties’ time and resources with their “wild a challenge to these fakers. ...” agreed to the protocol, ABC disap- goose chases.” We’ll all anxiously await their re- pointingly elected to include their com- ABC had a retired FBI agent ex plain sponses, but don’t hold your breath. plaints regarding testing conditions. As that in his thirty-year career he never Bryan Farha is professor of behavioral studies usual, Randi did a good job explaining saw a psychic help find a single missing in education at Oklahoma City University. He is flim-flam with his no-nonsense ap- person. Then the program described the a CSI consultant and editor of Paranormal proach with the media. cruelty of Sylvia Browne’s most horrific Claims: A Critical Analysis. His email address is David Wright hosted the next seg- failed prediction of her career, when she [email protected].

Skeptical Inquirer | November / December 2011 9 SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 10

“It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” – Thomas Paine You are invited to join the Center for Inquiry to Act, Combat, and Promote…

Since 1976, three remarkable organizations have been in the forefront of efforts to promote and defend critical thinking and freedom of inquiry. The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (founded in 1976), the Council for Secular Humanism (1980), CSI Fellow and SkEPTICAl INquIrEr Editorial Board Member and the Center for Inquiry James Alcock leads a class at a Skeptics’ Toolbox event. The Toolbox (1991) have advocated, has been held every year, except once, since1992. championed, and, when necessary, defended the freedom to inquire … while Your Help Is a Necessity! ACT, COMBAT, and PROMOTE demonstrating how the fruits Each year, magazine of objective inquiry can be We are currently focused on three subscriptions fund a smaller used to understand reality, goals central to our core objectives: percentage of this work, even refute false beliefs, and achieve as the need for activism in- Act to end the stigma results that benefit humanity. attached to being creases and the population nonreligious. we serve grows. In many ways, our organizations have been ahead of their Combat religion’s More than ever, CFI and its time. Now, they are privileges and its influence affiliates depend on the on public policy. truly 3 For Tomorrow. generosity of our supporters Through education, advocacy, both to fund daily operations Promote science-based publishing, legal activism, skepticism and critical thinking. and to build capital and its network of regional for the future. branches, CFI and its affiliate Make your most generous gift

organizations continue to today . . . or request information Your support today can provide support for everyone on planned giving or a bequest. who seeks a better life—in protect tomorrow for us all. For more information, return the this life—for all. Your generous gift can perpetuate our work toward attached card or contact us at: Center for Inquiry the kind of world you—and Development Office your grandchildren—can feel P.O. Box 741 Amherst, NY 14226 proud to live in. 1-800-818-7071 [email protected] website: www.centerforinquiry.net SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 11

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

New Jersey Supreme Court ing it. By some estimates, as many as one-third of eyewitness identifications in Overhauls Eyewitness ID Rules criminal cases are wrong, and nearly two BENJAMIN RADFORD hundred people who were convicted of crimes based on positive eyewitness identifications were later exonerated In August the New Jersey Supreme The chief justice, Stuart J. Rabner, through DNA evidence. Court issued new rules to prevent in- wrote in a unanimous decision that the The problem of eyewitness unreliabil- nocent people from being wrongly con- legal system had to catch up with scien- ity (and memory unreliability) has been victed of a crime based upon eyewitness tific evidence in order to ensure justice: known in academia for years; psycholo- testimony. According to an article in gists such as Elizabeth Loftus have long the New York Times, Study after study revealed a troubling lack of reliability in eyewitness iden- documented how sincere, honest people The New Jersey Supreme Court, ac- tifications. ... From social science re- make important mistakes when report- knowledging a “troubling lack of research to the review of actual police ing what they have seen. But it’s only reliability in eyewitness identifications,” lineups, from laboratory ex periments cently that the legal system has recog- issued sweeping new rules . . . making to DNA exonerations, the record it easier for defendants to challenge proves that the possibility of mis- nized—and taken steps to mitigate—the such evidence in criminal cases. The taken identification is real. In deed, it problem of eyewitness mis identification. court said that whenever a defendant is now widely known that eyewitness The research also has implications for presents evidence that a witness’s misidentification is the leading cause other types of eyewitness reports. The identification of a suspect was influ- of wrongful convictions across the bulk of evidence for “unexplained” re- enced, by the police, for instance, a country. judge must hold a hearing to consider ports is eyewitness accounts. Many peo- a broad range of issues. These could The idea that people often incorrectly ple who believe in the existence of Big- include police behavior, but also fac- see, remember, and report what they ex- foot or extraterrestrials, for example, do tors like lighting, the time that had perience is not merely theory but a so based on the disproven premise that elapsed since the crime or whether the victim felt stress at the time of the proven fact; there are over two thousand sincere, honest eyewitnesses can’t be misidentification. published scientific studies demonstrat- taken.

Fortean Author Hilary Evans (1929–2011) Hill UFO abduction story. He compared the Hills’ (at the time novel) narrative to ROBERT SHEAFFER earlier accounts of otherworldly beings and religious visions, finding many com- Hilary Evans, a leading British For tean of “anomalistic” subjects was extraordi- mon themes and formulations in both author and researcher of “marginal hu - nary. He met frequently with colleagues and suggesting that a “life crisis” of the man experiences,” died on July 27, 2011. and was responsible for much sharing of percipient was likely the cause. When- He was the author of many books, in- information. I met Evans at the Encoun- ever the trite phrase “a gentleman and a cluding Visions, Apparitions, Alien Visitors ters at Indian Head conference in New scholar” is used, there can be no better il- (1984) and Gods, Spirits, Cosmic Guar - Hampshire in 2000, which was organ- lustration of that ideal than Hillary dians (1987). Evans was a founder of ized to scrutinize the Betty and Barney Evans. what is called the “psychosocial hypothesis.” It attributes the perception of anomalous phenomena such as UFOs, apparitions, and so forth to a sort of psychodrama occurring inside the percipient’s head that is shaped by society’s expectations and beliefs. It is very in - fluential today among British Forteans, many of whom are quite skeptical of the literal truth of paranormal claims. Evans and his late wife, Mary, operated the Mary Evans Picture Library in London, a major repository of over one million images. The Evans’ private collection of esoteric books and Vic toriana was legendary, and Hilary’s knowledge

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SensaSlim Lawsuit Seeks AAAS Condemns to Silence Skeptics Personal Attacks on GURMUKH MONGIA Climate Scientists

Those who seek to undermine and discredit the findings of modern climate science have increasingly been resorting to legal action, threats, ha- rassment, and other decidedly nonsci- entific at tacks directed against climate scientists themselves. The situation has been of growing concern to the world scientific community. Now the board of directors of the American Association for the Ad - vance ment of Science—publisher of the leading journal Science and dedi- Ken Harvey is in a legal battle with the makers of the cated to advancing science around the dubious product SensaSlim. world—has issued a formal statement Skeptical activists have reason for con- that supposedly performed the study. calling for an end to such personal at- cern when organizations invested in They allege that the institute’s website, tacks on climate scientists. questionable treatments take action in- in a page claiming to list its staff, instead “We are deeply concerned by the tended to silence their critics. The recent features images of doctors grabbed from extent and nature of personal attacks case of Simon Singh and the British the website of a lung clinic in the United on climate scientists,” the statement, Chiropractic Association (BCA) was States. issued June 28, reads. “Reports of ha- one such noteworthy case that received Allegations have come to light from rassment, death threats, and legal chal- a good deal of popular support and the Australian Competition and Con - lenges have created a hostile environ- helped to highlight the need for libel re- sumer Commission (ACCC) of a rela- ment that inhibits the free ex change of form in the United Kingdom. tionship between SensaSlim and a con- scientific findings and ideas and makes Singh’s victory over the BCA’s accu- victed felon and con artist named Peter it difficult for factual information and sations of libel also highlights the im- Foster. Foster is known to have perpe- scientific analyses to reach policymakers and the public. This both impedes portance of standing behind the people trated illegal schemes in the past, in- the progress of science and interferes who challenge these organizations so cluding the creation of several fraudu- that they may persevere against them. with the application of science to the lent slimming products such as the Cho It is in this spirit that the Australian solution of global problems.” Lo and Bai Lin slimming teas and Skeptics are calling for support from the The statement says science is a Trimmit diet pills, among others. skeptical community for Ken Harvey, self-correcting system that has well- The Australian Skeptics are en - who put in a complaint to Australia’s established methods to resolve discouraging like-minded individuals to Therapeutic Goods Ad min istration agreements over interpretation of support the fight against organizations (TGA) regarding a product called Sen- data; “scientists should not be sub- saSlim and was subsequently hit with an that resort to these kinds of tactics. Ken jected to fraud investigations or ha- Harvey is currently engaged in a legal $800,000 (AUD) defamation suit. rassment simply for providing scien- SensaSlim is advertised as a mirac- battle with SensaSlim because he dared tific results that are controversial.” ulous weight-reducing oral spray. Its to complain to the TGA. Those who Policymakers should not be able to manufacturer claims it is the result of wish to support Harvey are encouraged subvert the peer-review processes of twenty years of research and that its ef- to contact the Australian Skeptics by science, it says. ficacy has been proven in a large-scale email at [email protected]. “AAAS vigorously opposes attacks clinical trial involving over eleven Tim Mendham, executive officer of the on researchers that question their per- thousand people from over one hun- Australian Skeptics, may also be con- sonal and professional integrity or dred countries. This trial has not been tacted by phone at 02 8094 1894 for in - threaten their safety based on dis- published in any peer-reviewed med- formation on how to donate. In addi- pleasure with their scientific conclu- ical journals, however, and critics who tion, checks made out to Austral ian sions,” the statement continues. have looked into the matter are unable Skeptics may be sent to PO Box 20, The full statement is on the orga- to locate the Swiss research institute Beecroft 2119, Australia. nization’s website (www.aaas.org).

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Budd Hopkins (1931–2011): Skeptic’s Dictionary Pioneering UFO Abductionist for Kids

ROBERT SHEAFFER GURMUKH MONGIA

The famous UFO abductionist Budd Hopkins succumbed to cancer in New York City on August 21 at the age of eighty (www.intrudersfoundation.org/ inside.html). The “UFO abduction” scenario changed significantly after the publication of Hopkins’s book Missing Time in 1981. Prior to that, UFO ab - ductions were said to occur only when people ventured out to lonely, de serted places late at night and en countered aliens (see, for example, the cases of Betty and Barney Hill and Travis Wal- ton). Hopkins’s contribution en tirely The growth of the skeptics commu- severed the connection between UFO nity has resulted in an increase in on- sightings and UFO abductions. Hop- line resources, but most of them have kins wrote of a new “abduction sce- Hopkins was not one been created with a specific audience nario that is, if anything, even more with whom to have a in mind: most often a well-educated, disturbing to contemplate. Many peo- discussion or de bate. older one. But the exciting fact is that ple have simply been taken from their younger and younger minds are be- homes while they were either asleep, or He was right, you were coming interested in skeptical topics. engaged in some quotidian activity, like wrong, and you were This is an encouraging development; watching television or reading” (Miss- probably stupid as well. however, it seems that resources geared ing Time, p. 79). Often the aliens, and toward this demographic have been their helpless prey, simply float through slow to develop. Robert Carroll of the closed windows or even walls. In such Skeptic’s Dictionary noticed this dis- cases, the law of gravity and all of crepancy and took action. By enlist- Newton’s Laws of Motion seem to be a substantive discussion. He would have ing the help of pre-teen consultants, suspended. To ex plain why nobody none of it, and his attitude toward me Carroll has developed a new branch ever sees or photographs someone else (and likely toward all skeptics) was al- of the Skeptic’s Dictionary: the Skep- being abducted, Hopkins suggested ways hostile. Hopkins was not one with tic’s Dictionary for Kids! that the aliens have the ability to make whom to have a discussion or debate. This new resource offers skeptical themselves and their abductees invisi- He was right, you were wrong, and you in sights written in kid-friendly lan- ble during this process. were probably stupid as well; it was that guage and includes plenty of illustra- Hopkins was a member of the fa- simple. Hopkins concealed flaws in tions and links to sound files to help mous troika of UFO abductionists, cases he was proclaiming to the world with the pronunciation of difficult along with John Mack, MD, and David were ironclad proof of abductions. His words. There are, at present, forty-five Jacobs (who is now the sole survivor), ex-wife Carol Rainey be came disillu- entries in the Skeptic’s Dictionary for during abductology’s heyday in the sioned with his careless research and Kids, all written for the benefit of chil- early 1990s. Hopkins was the founder duplicity and became one of his most dren ages nine and up. This is a rich re- and executive director of the Intruders severe critics. For more about source for children in general, especially Foundation, taking its name from his Rainey contra Hopkins, especially the for children who love topics like aliens, 1987 best-selling book Intruders, which Brooklyn Bridge Abduction (“Lev i tated ghosts, and cryptids. The website, in 1992 was made into a primetime Linda”), see my “Abduct ology Im- which is free of advertisements, is miniseries on CBS-TV. Hopkins was plodes” (“Psychic Vibrations,” SI, available at sd4kids.skepdic.com. n one of the organizers of the 1992 May/June 2011). I also discussed “Levi - Abduc tion Study Confer ence at MIT tated Linda” in my “Psychic Vibra tions” Gurmukh Mongia is a computer scientist sponsored by physicist David Pritchard, column in the Spring 1993 SI, which working in the field of web development. He which I attended. has been reprinted in the new book Psy- currently operates a blog and podcast re- Each of the several times I met chic Vibrations: Skeptical Giggles from the lated to critical thinking, The Dumbasses Hop kins I attempted to engage him in Skeptical Inquirer (2011). Guide To Knowledge(www.dumbassguide.info).

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[COMMENTARY 9/11: Perspectives from a Decade Later

CLARK R. CHAPMAN and ALAN W. HARRIS

year after the terrorist attacks of 2001, we wrote in a plant meltdown. As the Japanese have recently experienced, a low-probability SKEPTICAL INQUIRER cover story (Chapman and tsunami and nuclear disaster can hap- Harris 2002) that the resulting damage to our society pen. But as individuals and as a society, A we literally cannot afford the massive was largely self-inflicted. Not that we, the victims, were re- expenditures that would be required to sponsible for the attacks: al-Qaeda and the late Osama bin try to eliminate all low-probability Laden were accountable, of course, for killing three thou - threats. We must respond rationally to the likelihood and objective seriousness sand people and destroying billions of dollars worth of of each threat. property, notably the World Trade Center. Yet the damage The last decade has demonstrated to our society has been vastly greater. (For comparison that our fears of terrorism were indeed exaggerated, despite occasional terrorist roughly three thousand people died on ed that 25 percent of Americans be- incidents (at levels similar to terrorism in Amer icanhighways during September lieved that “another terrorist attack in the decades preceding 9/11). Consider 2001, but these deaths had no long- the United States” was “very likely” the resulting economic impacts. The lasting consequences to the nation.) It within the next few months; another 45 stock market immediately fell about 15 was bin Laden’s hope that our fearful percent felt it was “somewhat likely.” percent, involving a loss of market capi- responses to the attacks might result in Widespread but plainly irrational wor- talization of several trillion dollars, a more costly repercussions, which in - ries that “you or your family will be a vic- thousand times the loss of the buildings. deed have occurred and continue even tim of a terrorist attack” have abated little Other impacts during the year following today; he hoped they would under mine during subsequent years (over one-third the attacks included severe downturns our economy and society. We argued of Amer icans responded as recently as for the airline and hospitality industries that rational skepticism could mitigate 2009–2011 [AP-Gfk Poll 2011] that and the expensive establishment of secu- (not eliminate) our irrational, self-dam- they were either “somewhat” or “very” rity operations at public buildings around aging behavior. We claimed that our worried about personally becoming vic- the country. Concerns about terrorism, in nation was not facing an existential cri- tims of terrorism). the context of 9/11, were the stated rea- sis; rather, our leaders were enabling the In short, common perceptions about sons for initiating the wars in terrorists to win by playing into their the terrorist threat were nearly as dis- Afghanistan and Iraq, although other hopes that we would respond to the at- torted from reality as beliefs in astrol- considerations were also at work. A re- tacks with exaggerated fear. ogy, the foreign birth of President cent estimate (Belasko 2011) of the U.S. To our surprise, many SI readers dis- Obama, haunted houses, and other top- government appropriations, so far, for the agreed. Letter writers (SI Reader’s Fo - ics treated in these pages, including “War on Terrorism” (narrowly defined as rum, January/February 2003, pp. 61–65) conspiracy theories about 9/11 itself the Afghanistan and Iraq wars) is $1.3 argued that the barbarians were indeed (covered extensively in the July/August trillion. Since the expensive wars were at our gates, that the future of our coun- 2011 issue of SI). Meanwhile, we have not “paid for,” or rather they were paid for try was actually imperiled. More than faced very real perils during the past by increasing the national debt, some one suggested that the attacks were the decade as a society (e.g., the economic argue that our national response to ter- first salvo in a sure-to-escalate war, like crisis), as regions (e.g., hurricanes in rorism is at least one significant cause— Hitler’s first invasions or Pearl Harbor. New Orleans and the Gulf Coast), and though there are of course others—of the Some believed there would be an in- as individuals (e.g., heart disease). Of economic crisis of the past few years. In creasing frequency and magnitude of course, a major terrorist attack remains this sense, the al-Qaeda goal of enticing terrorist attacks. National polls in 2002 a slight possibility, as does the impact the United States to enter wars of attri- (New York Times/CBS Poll 2002) show - of a huge asteroid or a nuclear power- tion was partly achieved.

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Other, more subjective repercussions alyst David Ropeik discusses in his book plex” of which Eisen hower famously from 9/11, which polls show many peo- How Risky Is It, Really? (Ropeik 2010). warned us; and Sputnik launched the ple see as costs to society, include the in- Human beings meld the objective “facts” space program, along with major reforms conveniences of Transportation Security about relative risks with their own affec- of the U.S. education system and in- Administra tion (TSA) procedures at tive feelings and subconscious fight/flee creased appreciation of science and tech- airports, compromises of personal free- responses to hazards. Ropeik argues that nology, arguably leading to the revolution doms, invasion of privacy (for example, the perception gap is a dangerous hazard in electronics and computers. What is governmental eavesdropping on phone in and of itself. Ropeik quotes estimates the legacy of 9/11? Sadly, it is a wasteland calls of citizens), discrimination against that during the few fearful months fol- of fear and hate, expensive professional Muslims, torture of potential inform- lowing 9/11, about one thousand addi- armies fighting endless wars, and a brand ants, and so forth. Of course, these are tional deaths oc curred on U.S. highways new bureaucracy of Homeland Security intertwined with political and religious because people chose to drive rather than (in cluding the TSA), which promotes its attitudes, so we cannot know the degree fly. Even more profound damage was own continued existence and is unlikely to which other causes of such cultural done to American values and economic to go away. n and societal shifts were also at work. But health by our societal, rather than just in- the cliché that we are now “living in a dividual, perception gap. References post-9/11 world” documents the mag- Ropeik is not optimistic that we can AP-Gfk Poll. 2011. May 5–9. Available online at nitude of our irrational, fear-induced largely avoid such responses, due to www.pollingreport.com/terror.htm. Belasko, Amy. 2011. The cost of Iraq, Af - augmentations to the objective damage innate human traits that underlie the ghanistan, and other global War on Terror of the 9/11 attacks. affective aspects of our risk response. operations since 9/11. Congressional Re - We are disappointed and puzzled However, he argues that better risk com- search Service, Report RL33110. Available online at http://opencrs.com/document/ that, a decade after the attacks, there has munication by our leaders and com - RL33110/. been minimal return to the status quo mentators could adjust the balance be- Chapman, Clark R., and Alan W. Harris. 2002. ante. The Homeland Security in fra - tween rational and affective re sponses. A skeptical look at September 11th: How we structure continues to grow. While peo- We suggest that many negative repercus- can defeat terrorism by reacting to it more rationally. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26(5): 29–34. ple travel by air again, ex pensive X-ray sions from 9/11 could have been miti- Jenkins, B.M. 2010. Would-be warriors: Inci dents and microwave machines proliferate at gated—however imperfectly—had we of jihadist terrorist radicalization in the airports. The war expenditures and individually and collectively behaved dif- United States since September 11, 2001. RAND Corp. Occasional Paper. deaths (of U.S. soldiers, mercenaries, and ferently in the aftermath of 9/11, trying New York Times/CBS News Poll. 2002. Sep - foreign civilians alike) diminish at an ag- to take rational, conscious responsibility tember 8. Available online at www.nytimes. onizingly slow rate, though less than one for our behavior. Journalists, educators, com/packages/html/national/20020908_poll/ 020908poll-results.html. hundred al-Qaeda fighters are estimated bloggers, politicians, and other opinion Politifact.com. 2011. Available online at www. to remain in Af ghani stan (Politifact.com leaders have a responsibility to avoid politifact.com/rhode-island/statements/ 2011). The Congress, the Executive feeding terrorist fears and to promote 2011/may/15/david-cicilline/cicilline-says- Branch, and the Supreme Court con- rational evaluation of our national pri- there-are-only-25-30-al-qaeda-fight/. Ropeik, David. 2010. How Risky Is It, Really? tinue to chip away at our once revered orities. In particular, the community of New York: McGraw-Hill. rights to privacy and freedom from un- skeptics is especially knowledgeable warranted searches. Polls show fears of about the battle between objectivity and Clark R. Chapman is a re- terrorism barely retreating, even after irrationality and has special expertise search scientist at the Southwest Research Insti- years of zero civilian deaths by jihadis on and opportunities to try to close the tute in Boulder, Colorado. U.S. soil (according to a RAND report perception gap concerning terrorism. [Jenkins 2010]). Over-reaching provi- About once in a generation, a major sions of the post-9/11 Patriot Act have “game changing” event occurs: the eco- Alan W. Harris is a research been recently extended. It seems that we nomic crash of 1929, Pearl Harbor, the scientist, most recently at as a society, and many of us as individuals, launch of Sputnik, and now 9/11. Each the Space Science Institute are incapable of returning to our pre- of these events has spawned dramatic (also in Boulder, Colorado). 9/11 existence. Day after day, year after changes in how we live—some good, They developed their per- year, the government, driven by perceived some bad, some equivocal. The Great spectives on hazards from public pressure, persists in advancing the Depression led to “New Deal” social pro- researching what is perhaps the lowest probability terrorists’ goals. grams, including Social Security; Pearl but highest consequence Our disproportionate individual and Harbor and World War II and the Cold hazard of all: the potential end of human societal responses to 9/11 exemplify the War that followed led to the massive civilization due to the impact of an asteroid “perception gap,” which Harvard risk an- growth of the “military-industrial com- or comet.

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[SPECIAL REPORT ‘Exeter Incident’ Solved!

A Classic UFO Case, Forty-Five Years ‘Cold’

One of the great unsolved UFO cases—which provoked endless controversy between True Believers and Doubting Thomases—has at long last succumbed to investigation. The 1965 Exeter mystery is now explained.

JAMES MCGAHA and JOE NICKELL

t has been considered “one of the best-documented they came so close I fell to the ground and started to draw my gun.” The offi- UFO accounts on record” (APRO Bulletin 1965) and cer stated that there were “five bright I“one of the most spectacular and best-corroborated red lights”; indeed they were “extremely UFO close encounters of all time” (Davenport and bright and flashed on one at a time.” He added that “The lights were so bright, I Geremia 2001). What journalist John G. Fuller would sub- was unable to make out any form” (Ber - sequently relate in his book Incident at Exeter (1966) began trand 1965). The pair ran to the police in the early hours of a September morning in 1965 near a car. Bertrand radioed Patrol man David small town in southeastern New Hampshire. It has never Hunt, who arrived and also witnessed the lights, which finally moved away, east- been satisfactorily explained—until now. ward, toward the ocean (Fuller 1966, 14). Over the next several weeks, some Exeter Incident angle. They were so bright, they sixty reports of UFOs followed in the lighted up the area. The lights then area around Exeter. The case resulted in The story begins at 12:30 AM on Sep - moved out over a large field and acted tember 3, 1965, at Exeter, New Hamp - an article in Look magazine (Febru ary at times like a floating leaf. They 8, 1966), the book by Fuller (expan- shire. A policeman cruising on Route would go down behind the trees, be- 101 came upon a woman parked beside hind a house and then reappear. sively subtitled The Story of Unidentified Objects over America Today), and a host the road. She told him excitedly that a Muscarello then described what would flying object with red flashing lights had of articles, entries in UFO encyclope- prove to be a powerful clue to the UFO’s dias (e.g., Clark 1998, 364– 67), and dis- chased her for some distance. She identity: pointed to a bright light on the horizon. cussions in books (e.g., Hynek 1977, The policeman, Eugene Bertrand, watch - [The lights] always moved in the 154–66), as well as lectures, radio same sixty-degree angle. Only one ed it for a short time and, unimpressed, shows, and television documentaries. light would be on at a time. They J. Allen Hynek—the astronomer who left after reassuring the woman there was were pulsating: one, two, three, four, nothing to worry about. five, four, three, two, one. They were began as an admitted “outright ‘de- Then at 2:24 AM, eighteen-year-old so bright I could not distinguish a bunker’” but became, by the late 1960s, Norman Muscarello burst into the Ex- form to the object. I watched these a true believer in the reality of “the UFO lights for about fifteen minutes and phenomenon”—considered the case “a eter police station, “white, and shaking.” they finally disappeared behind some He had been hitchhiking along Route trees and seemed to go into a field. fine example of a Close Encounter of 150 toward his home in Exeter when At one time while I was watching the First Kind” (1977, 1, 154), terminol- he saw what he called “the Thing,” as them, they seemed to come so close ogy he created. Hynek observed that the I jumped into a ditch to keep from Pentagon was unable to explain the Sep- big as or bigger than a house (Fuller being hit. 1966, 11). As Muscarello (1965) later tember 3, 1965, Exeter phenomenon described it in a signed statement: Bertrand drove with Muscarello to and that “the scientific establishment” (a the site just before 3 AM. The two phrase dear to true believers) “in failing A group of five bright lights ap peared over a house about a hundred feet walked into the field, and Bertrand to deal with the evidence” was, like the from where I was standing. The lights himself witnessed the lights Muscarello Penta gon, “actually admitting that it has were in a line at about a sixty-degree had described. He stated, “At one time no explanation” (Hynek 1977, 165–66).

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In short, the object was still an uniden- base. This possibility was tested by hav- tween August 21 and September 10, tified flying object, implying that the ing both the runway marker lights and and furthermore it bore no red flashing mystery indicated something momen- the approach strobes turned off and on lights, instead having “a rectangular sign tous. Skep tics were, of course, skeptical. during a fifteen-minute period, but ob- carrying white flashing lights” (Fuller servers saw no effect from the Exeter 1966, 51). ‘Solutions’ site (UFO Phenomenon 1987, 103–104). Corona discharge from power lines. The Not surprisingly, the Exeter incident An Air Force Operation. Blue Book late UFO skeptic Philip J. Klass agreed provoked many speculations as to what suggested the incident might have been that the eyewitnesses had indeed seen the UFO might have been. Here are caused by planes from a SAC/ something unusual, but he speculated some of the proposals: NORAD training exercise dubbed “Big that “the Exeter UFOs” (including the Astronomical bodies. As shown by a Blast,” which occurred on Sep tember 2– one seen by Muscarello and the two po- folder in the files of Project Blue Book 3, 1965. Blue Book noted that “the town lice officers) might have been “power- (the U.S. Air Force’s UFO evaluation of Exeter is within the traffic pattern line coronas,” that is, clear-weather plas- operation, 1952–1969), the Pentagon utilized by Air Traffic Control in the re- mas (luminous clouds of ionized air) considered—and rejected—the possibil- covery of these aircraft at Pease AFB that were generated by electrical charges ity of “astro-stars/planets.” Sup posedly, [Air Force Base], N.H.” The exercise emanating from high-tension power the witnesses had merely seen “stars and was active—according to Blue Book’s lines (Klass 1968, 12–25). This clearly planets twinkling” due to a temperature chief (Quin tanilla 1965)—between did not explain the original Exeter inci- inversion (a meteorological phenome- midnight and 2 AM. However, Ber trand dent, and Klass later backed away from non in which a layer of warm air is noted that he and young Muscarello his “plasma UFOs” theory (see Clark trapped above cold night air and thus is had witnessed the flashing UFO “nearly 1998, 366). capable of causing visual distortions) an hour after two a.m. which would Prank with lighted kite. Skeptical (Clark 1998, 365). The totality of evi- eliminate the Air Force Operation Big UFO buff Martin Kottmeyer (1996) dence was incompatible with that hy- Blast” as an explanation (qtd. in Clark weighed in with the notion that a pothesis, leading Hynek (1977, 154) to 1998, 366). Hynek (1977, 154) con- prankster flew a kite, most likely “a declare, “The astronomical evaluation is curred. large box kite” with “five strobe flashers completely untenable.” Advertising plane. Newspapers in the linked to a sequencer” that “hung along Glare of airport landing lights. One Exeter area ascribed the lights to “a fly- the kite-line rather than a tail” (thus ac- air force officer hypothesized that the ing billboard”—an ad plane—owned counting for the observed sixty-degree Exeter sighting merely resulted from by the Sky-Lite Aerial Adver tising angle). However, not only is the kite hy- the glare of landing lights at nearby Agency of Boston. The Ames bury pothesis cut from whole cloth, but the Pease Air Force Base, a Strategic Air (Massachusetts) News thus claimed the imagined prankster seems to have gone Command (SAC)/North American Air UFO “has finally been identified!” But to considerable effort for such a de- Defense Command (NORAD) bomb er alas, that plane was on the ground be- serted place and time.

Figure 1. A U.S. Air Force KC-97 refueling tanker like this one became an unintentional UFO, sparking the “Exeter Incident” of Sep tember 3, 1965.

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make out the shape of the ell), an investigator and science writer, UFO. Not knowing the recalled the cold case to the other (James craft’s size, its altitude, or its McGaha), an astronomer and former distance from the viewer— military pilot. We brainstormed the case, that is, with multiple un- shared sources, and discussed details— knowns—a witness has no soon agreeing that one particular element basis for estimating any of held the key to the solution. We might these factors. And Exeter call it (with homage to Hardy Boys’ mys- witnesses were indeed afraid: teries) “The Clue of the Sequencing a woman who felt she was Lights.” being chased by a UFO had As it happens, the military pilot of our pulled off the road; a teenage team has actually docked with a craft like witness arriving at the police the UFO at Exeter, and he recognized station was white and shak- the sequencing lights for what they surely ing; and one officer admitted were: those on a U.S. Air Force KC-97 he almost shot at the bright refueling plane. To check his memory lights. and obtain photos (figures 1–3), he vis- Consider that even some- ited an aerospace museum. Like seeing thing as distant as a meteor an old friend, he gazed on a mothballed hundreds of miles away, pass- KC-97 tanker (figure 1) whose fuselage ing out of sight behind trees, is arrayed with a row of five red sequenc- can seem to have landed in a ing lights (figure 2). These would reflect nearby woodland—a com- onto the refueling boom (figure 3), which mon illusion. The brightness (according to the flight manual) when of the Exeter UFO’s lights lowered is inclined at sixty-four degrees. (greater than that of a mere Just this type of craft operated out of airplane and ultimately pro- Strategic Air Command bomber bases viding a clue to its identity) like that of Pease AFB and, in deed, Figure 2. On the underbelly of the KC-97 are (closest to the camera) probably made the craft would surely have been involved in a a set of three high-intensity lights and (farther from the viewer) the seem much closer than it re- SAC/NORAD training exercise like five red panels of sequencing lights. (These were described by eye- ally was. that dubbed “Big Blast” of Sep tem ber witnesses as “five bright red lights” that “flashed on one at a time,” specifically “pulsating: one, two, three, four, five, four, three, two, Consider, too, that some- 2–3, 1965. But what about the “fact” one.”) thing that is frightening that this exercise—which was ongoing tends to loom large in one’s in the skies over Exeter at the time of Other objects. Still other possible consciousness. Chad Marsolek of the the first sightings—had supposedly candidates were proposed—helicopter, University of Minnesota, an expert in ended about an hour before Muscarello balloon, civilian plane—but nothing memory distortion, describes a “weapon- and officer Bertrand had their “close en- seemed likely. focus effect.” This may cause an eyewit- counter”?1 It seems quite apparent that, As Jerome Clark summed up in his ness who is focusing on something although the particular exercise was re- The UFO Encyclopedia (1998, 366) after frightening (such as the barrel of a gun) portedly over, there were still planes in noting the case had received much to lose focus on other elements. As it the sky. Bertrand and Hunt, in fact, wit- notoriety, “The attention en sured that happens, when people view a disturbing nessed a B-47 jet at about the time the this particular close en counter of the image they tend to be confident of their UFO disappeared (Fuller 1966, 67). first kind would be remembered in a accuracy—even when their memory is Perhaps it had just refueled. way few have been. Still, by any stan- wrong (Mar solek 2010). The airborne refueling process of dard the sighting remains puzzling and All of these issues apply to the Ex- the KC-97 is both interesting and rel- impressive.” eter incident. However, much of what evant. Briefly, it involved the KC-97 the eyewitnesses described was still ac- making long circuits of the rendezvous Perceptions curate, as we shall see presently. area. As the jet to be refueled began to People misperceive—especially when approach, the boom was lowered and they suddenly encounter something Solved! the receiver (sequencing) lights were that is unknown, is seen under adverse For forty-five years the incident at Ex- turned on. However, when the jet was conditions, and frightens them. Recall eter remained unsolved. Then, while we in very close proximity, the receiver that at Exeter the un identified lights were working together on some ongo- lights were turned low; otherwise their were so bright that witnesses could not ing UFO research, one of us (Joe Nick- extreme brightness would temporarily

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SPECIAL REPORT]

blind the approaching pilot. (The sequencing stopped as the aircraft hooked up.) There would be some jockeying as the two planes connected, and all of this could look exceedingly strange to an observer on the ground. Thus, on one of its long passes the slow-moving KC-97 could have seemed to be “chasing” the first eyewitness on Route 101. It was subsequently seen by young Muscarello and, later still, Ber - trand, with its boom down at its charac- teristic angle. This boom, which bore its own small wings (again, see figure 3), would actually flutter in the air currents (except when specifically being controlled by the boom operator), which no doubt explains eyewitness Muscarello’s statement that the UFO “acted at times like a floating leaf.” Most notable were the tanker’s five red lights, which were flashing—in the sequence accurately Figure 3. Underneath the KC-97 is also a refueling boom (shown here in stowed position). When down, the boom described by the two witnesses—one, is at an angle consistent with the sixty degrees an eyewitness reported (specifically sixty-four degrees, according two, three, four, five, four, three, two, one. to the flight manual). The sequencing lights would reflect onto the boom, which would flutter “like a floating leaf” The extreme brightness of the lights, when not controlled by the boom operator (note its small wings). (Photos by James McGaha) rendering other features of the object in- distinguishable from the ground, is fur- Note Sheaffer, Robert. 1986. The UFO Verdict. Amherst, 1. Hynek (1977, 154) misstated the situation New York: Prometheus Books. ther corroborative evidence of the UFO’s Story, Ronald D. 1980. The Encyclopedia of UFOs. identification as a KC-97 refueling plane. when he wrote that “Operation Big Blast termi- nated more than an hour before the incident at Garden City, New York: Doubleday. Why did the Pentagon not solve the Exeter began.” He should have said that the op- ———. 2001. The Encyclopedia of Extrater restrial eration was in progress during the earlier sightings Encounters. New York: New Amer ican Library. case at the time? Perhaps in the welter The UFO Phenomenon (Mysteries of the Unknown of paperwork the clue we found so sig- but had reportedly ended about an hour before Bertrand (1965) witnessed the UFO. series). 1987. Alexandria, Virginia: Time-Life nificant went unseen by anyone who Books. could fully grasp its import and who References had time to devote to the case. Natu- APRO Bulletin. 1965. Reprinted as “Exeter (New James McGaha, major, USAF Hampshire) sightings” in Story 1980, 113–14. rally, everything is much clearer in retired, is a former special op- hindsight. Bertrand, Eugene. 1965. Statement, full text in Hynek 1977, 158–59. erations and electronic war- We believe this solves the so-called Clark, Jerome. 1998. The UFO Encyclopedia, 2nd fare pilot and now an as- incident at Exeter. As to the weeks of ed. (in two vols.). Detroit, Michigan: Omni - tronomer and director of the subsequent UFO reports in the vicinity, graphics. Grasslands Observatory in Davenport, Peter B., and Peter Geremia. 2001. they were beyond the scope of our in- Exeter (New Hampshire) sightings. In Story Tucson, Arizona. He has fre- vestigation. (See Fuller 1966; Sheaffer 2001, 170–72. quently appeared as a UFO expert on such tele- 1986, 111–19.) As our work shows, Fuller, John G. 1966. Incident at Exeter. New vision shows as Larry King Live. He is a Commit- York: G.P. Putnam’s Sons. tee for Skeptical Inquiry scientific consultant. “cold cases” may be solvable with per- Hynek, J. Allen. 1977. The Hynek UFO Report. severance and some luck, keeping in New York: Dell. mind that luck is most likely to come Klass, Philip J. 1968. UFOs—Identified. New York: Random House. Joe Nickell, PhD, is a skepti- n to those who go looking for it. Kottmeyer, Martin S. 1996. The Exeter file. The cal investigator and UFOlogist REALL News, Part I, 4(9) (September): 1, 5– who has written extensively 6; Part II, 4(10) (Octo ber): 1, 6. Acknowledgments Marsolek, Chad. 2010. Episode of Monster Quest about extra terrestrial visita- The authors wish to thank James Stemm, (on “Mothman”). History Channel, aired tions in his various books, in- curator of the Pima Air and Space Museum, February 10. cluding Entities and Tracking and Tim Binga, director of the Center for Muscarello, Norman J. 1965. Statement, full text the Man-Beasts. He contrib - in Hynek 1977, 158. Inquiry Libraries, for their help with this in- Quintanilla, Hector, Jr. 1965. Letter, reprinted in uted to The Encyclopedia of Extra terrestrial En- vestigative project. Hynek 1977, 161–62. counters and coedited The UFO Invasion.

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[INTERVIEW

‘Getting People to Think More Deeply’ An Interview with Miracle Detectives Scientist Indre Viskontas

Miracle Detectives is a new television series that examines miracle Memory and Aging Center and edits the journal Neurocase. (She is claims via a team of investigators—one a believer, the other a sci- also an accomplished opera singer, having obtained a master of entist. The show premiered with the launch of the Oprah Winfrey music degree at the San Francisco Conservatory of Music.) Network (OWN) in January 2011. At least two miraculous claims are highlighted in each episode. The believer of the show’s team is Randall Sullivan, journalist and The miracle detective team of Sullivan and Viskontas (a setup akin author of the book The Miracle Detective(Grove Press, 2005). Sullivan to Mulder and Scully in The X-Files) travels to the location of the reportedly experienced his own personal religious event in Medjugorje, event to interview witnesses and also consult with various experts. Bosnia. He is an avowed believer in the existence of miracles. Questioning witnesses who believe a miracle has taken place is The adept foil for Sullivan is neuroscientist Indre Viskontas. as much of an art as a science. Viskontas employs both to examine Broadly trained in psychology, specifically in cognition, at UCLA, the claims made by people who believe these events are miracu- Viskontas specializes in the neural basis of memory and creativity. lous communications from God. In this interview, she shares with She is affiliated with the University of California, San Francisco, Sharon Hill strategies and some insights into working in television.

In the show’s introduction, think more deeply about What’s it like to do an episode band, and so on. you say, “Some would call me what they believe without and a whole season? For the interviews [with a ‘skeptic.’” Do you identify as threat or disrespect. The The shooting schedule was experts and witnesses], I a skeptic? target audience is not ex- grueling. It was a twelve- didn’t always have enough Would I call myself a card- actly on “my side,” and so I hour day on camera. We’d preparation time, and carrying skeptic? No. I have to walk a very fine shoot for twelve hours and sometimes I didn’t know didn’t know of the whole line. then return to the hotel what to expect. That’s part When I talk to people, I of the challenge on a show skeptical community until I room, where I’d still have to try to assess whether their like this. started doing research for do a diary cam session stories are backed up by the show. I hadn’t been in- (talking about your feelings other evidence. I realize How do you go about inter- volved in it previously, so into the camera) and re- people are very susceptible viewing witnesses who have search for the following day. for me to say “Yeah, I’m a to all kinds of memory fail- a story about a miracle? skeptic too” seemed disin- ures. Misremembering Also, I’d be preparing for How do you use that genuous. I know what it things that happened, while the next week’s case at the information? means to be a scientist beat the same time conflating same time, so if I got six I look to question witnesses cause that’s what I’ve been memories from similar but hours of sleep a night that in a way that gets around trained to be. I don’t have a separate events, is very was great. It was nonstop. I them just telling the story good sense of what it common. Of course, most would do so much back- in the same way they’ve means to be a “skeptic.” of us are not very good at ground research on each told it before. Instead, we resisting the temptation to case, downloading and read- try to access other informa- What is the scientist’s infer causality when two ing papers from PubMed, tion they might not share role on the show? events follow each other calling up colleagues, talking in the regular telling. They My goal is to get people to closely in time. about the case with my hus- might have told this story a

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hundred times before. When you start to ask them questions about the event—things they aren’t used to talking about, other aspects they aren’t used to recalling—you can find out if what they are saying makes sense or if they are conflating multiple incidents or coloring the past with their knowledge of what happened after the incident. I assume that people are telling me honestly what they remember, but “My goal is to get people to think more when there is something out of the ordinary [such as an event they may deeply about what they believe without attribute to paranormal causes] there are other ways in which I can corrob- threat or disrespect. The target audience orate their story. For example, I can is not exactly on ‘my side,’ and so I have look at a police report and at specific details of the account. Then I can get to walk a very fine line.” a sense of how accurate a memory is and to what extent the person’s recol- lection is faulty.

How does editing for television affect the presentation of the investigation? Have you been pleased with the editing? For the most part I’ve been pleased. When you have a television show, you need to make a story out of [the content]. There was one episode about a medical intuitive where I felt that . .. [the editors] left out some critical components. We picked a subject with one salient complaint. The intuitive came back with a very long list of potential problems but no mention of that complaint. Many items mentioned on that list were cut out to save time, and the editors decided to keep the relevant bits in—that is, the ones that the subject felt actually did apply to him. They edited out stuff that seemed superfluous. But in the case of an intuitive, this is really problematic! When listing every possible symptom that a person could experience, you’re going to get some hits, but what’s important is the ratio of hits to misses— not simply the hits. The editing is not designed to show that the skeptic is wrong and Randall is right. The goal is to make good television. Especially given the target audience, [the editors] do a SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:43 PM Page 22

think it got there? What are possible explanations? Let’s explore and keep talking.” Once you dismiss them, you’ve lost them. They don’t want to talk to you anymore. When you ask people questions that force them “When you ask people questions that force to come up with answers, they are much more likely them to come up with answers, they are to change their belief system if they realize these much more likely to change their belief questions are unanswerable system if they realize these questions are within their viewpoint. They also want to talk unanswerable within their viewpoint.” about the experience. So, if you question and try to understand what they base their beliefs on, you can lead them in a direction to show them that their beliefs might be fiction, and you good job. If I felt they were my point of view. They’ll cle.” It’s exciting to say, can also develop a rapport really skewing it, I would say, “Most of the time I find “There is something here with them that will encour- have left the show midway. myself siding with Randall, we hadn’t thought about age them to trust you. But we have to remember but you’ve made me think before that’s worth investi- What are your future plans? that the target audience about things that I hadn’t gating further,” or “Look won’t watch a show de- before.” Other times they’ll how interesting the brain is My goal in the future, bunking miracles, and say, “Wow, I never really that it can do this.” That’s through this show or other what’s important here is to thought about that possi- what fascinates me. means, is to share my pas- engage that audience, not bility. It’s changing the way sion for life and to illumi- simply to preach to the I think about my relation- How do you think skeptical/ra- nate what I can about the choir. ship with God because tional advocates can success- human experience. Just as maybe he acts in ways I fully promote their viewpoint? physicist Richard Feynman Is it hard to explain the sci- never considered before.” I’d say don’t simply discount has observed, we can enjoy ence in a one-hour show? It can also be hard to a person’s belief but find beauty at all levels of obser- It’s very hard; it’s one of the hear the criticisms from the what it is that interests you vation, from the micro- biggest challenges. What I skeptical community, such both. For example, a Big- scopic to the abstract. say is, “The evidence sug- as “You weren’t hard foot print: Instead of dis- Knowledge doesn’t take n gests it’s most likely this enough on him!” In some missing it by stating that’s away; it only adds. thing over the other.” That’s cases they’re right; there not what you think it is, Sharon Hill is a geologist who not very satisfying to many were better ways to do it. bring up another discussion specializes in policy, regula- people but it’s the truth. To But I did the best I could, point. Find something in- tion, and public understanding say that God did that or it since one of my goals was teresting [to discuss] that of science. She blogs at was some supernatural to engage the audience, not doesn’t rely on the existence http://idoubtit.wordpress.com thing requires such a be dismissed outright by of a mythical creature or about exposing sciencey- mountain of evidence. them. I think in most cases supernatural explanation. sounding claims. I did a pretty good job of Perhaps you can find some- What has been the bringing things to the table thing in common that you Expanded topics discussed viewer reaction? that people hadn’t thought can start out with: “Isn’t it in this interview can be found online at www.webcitation.org/ The feedback has been about. odd that there is one foot- 60fxts3O5. The full text of the mixed. I get emails from To me, it’s not exciting print here and nothing else interview can be found at: people who say they like to say, “This is not a mira- around it? How do you www.csicop.org/SIExtras.

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[ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell is CSI’s senior research fellow. He has been investigating alleged psychical phenomena since 1969 and is the author (or coauthor or editor) of thirty books.

Psychic Connections: Investigating in Hungary

hile in Hungary from Septem - or less to the field of parapsychology— ber 16–22, 2010—initially to was conducted with the untiring assis- Wparticipate in the fourteenth tance of Gabor Hrasko (who negotiated Euro pean Skeptics Congress (held in arrangements, drove, took photographs, Budapest September 17–19)—I found and much more), and Veron Eles (who time for some interesting investigations. has a definite talent for undercover Massimo Polidoro and I explored work). Here is a very brief account of the great labyrinth beneath Buda Cas- each of four excursions. tle, a network of caves and rock vaults created by hot water springs and used as Experiencing Healing Energy refuge by prehistoric man; it was later Our first visit was to a site called Attila linked by cellars, dungeons, and military Domb (Attila Mound), part of a com- store rooms into a complex that runs for mercialized Kincsem Horse Park near 1,300 yards (Eye witness 2007, 65) and is the village of Tápiószentmárton. The billed as “one of the seven underground site’s supposed connection with Attila wonders of the world” (“The Labyrinth” the Hun is tenuous, but the name Kinc- n.d.). Poli doro and I also went in search sem (“My Treasure”) was that of a of a fabled statue of the Virgin. Legend “wonder mare” of the nineteenth cen- says it was enclosed in the wall of Mátyás tury who never lost a race. The 37.5- Church during the Turkish occupation, acre site was said to have an energy em- and when the edifice was all but de - anation that attracted horses and stroyed in 1686, the statue miraculously endowed them with better health and appeared (Eyewitness 2007, 62). Alas, a greater foaling rate than elsewhere. A Figure 1. Village mayor prepares to catch the author, who however, it would not reappear for us: it “seriously ill” horse was reportedly also seems under the power of a mystical energy. was in a part of the church undergoing healed there (“Attila” 2011; Olsen 2007, are role-playing in response to sugges- renovation, and we could not beg or buy 128–29). From this folklore grew ru- tion and expectation (Nickell 2002). our way in. mors that the site was a “healing János played catcher as we fell backward Another investigation had me ac - mound” that could cure sick people. on cue (see figure 1). companying scholar Benedek Lang to The owner (and local mayor), Kocsi Hrasko, Eles, and I then walked to the Library of the Hungarian Academy János, graciously hosted us and gave us the mound, a gentle knoll where “geo- of Sciences to assist him in studying a a demonstration of the site’s supposed mancers,” or dowsers claim to detect most mysterious manuscript, the Ro - magical energy. He sat Eles and me the crossing of “a strong ley line”—leys honc Codex. This—like the famed down in his on-site restaurant and sug- are imagined lines of “earth energy” that Voynich Manuscript (Schmeh 2011)— gested that our hands, placed flat on a supposedly connect ancient mounds, is written in an unknown language. table, would mysteriously rise and a churches, legendary trees, and other al- Using techniques from my book Pen, warmth or tingling or other effect leged mystical “power” sites (Tietze Ink, and Evidence (Nickell 1990), I pro- would spread from our fingers through- 2004, 12; Olsen 2007; Guiley 1991, vided information relating to the codex’s out our bodies. Eles followed my lead as 329–30; Nickell 2003). This mix of su- authenticity, date of composition, and I played along, and she did so again perstition and pseudoscience will have other issues. Still another excursion took when János took us just outside and sug- no medical benefit of course, although me to the purported birthplace of Harry gested the energy could cause us to fall the site can take advantage of the same Houdini at No. 1 Csengery Street, Dis- backward—much the same as at an factors that are behind the touted suc- trict 7, Budapest. American Pentecostal healing service cesses of faith healing: misdiagnosis, The remainder of my investigative where people supposedly “go under the prior medical treatment, psychosomatic work in Hungary—which relates more power” of the Holy Spirit but actually conditions, spontaneous remissions, the

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entific testing, pointing out that it was he who appeared not to be impartial, he became rather impatient. Nevertheless, he did permit me to photograph an operator who handles psychic-seeking callers (figure 2). Using a computer screen, she matches callers with at-home fortunetellers who, he in- sisted defensively, were at least effective counselors, if not actually psychic. (In a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ex posé of telephone psychics, C. Eugene Em ery, Jr. [1995] describes how some admittedly phony psychics attempted to gently provide traditional counseling as a sub s - titute for supernatural in sights. But callers resisted. For example, one wo - Figure 2. An operator connects hopeful callers with work-at-home telephone “psychics.” man wondered if her husband was going to beat her but rejected the advice wonderful lunch to which he treated us to call 911 or turn to available sources there—beginning with palinka (an al- of assistance. Indeed, only after the coholic peach drink) and including “psychic” concocted a tarot-card read- Kincsem ragout (a stew named for the ing to support her commonsense rec- famous racehorse) along with many ommendation did the caller seem in- other treats—was the most magical clined to accept the advice.) part of our visit. Tapping My Telepathic Powers Hanging Up on Phone Psychics We three investigators next met with I was much intrigued by our visit to Bu- Jeno Torocsik, a Hungarian mathemati- dapest’s Esoteric University and its Psi cian who operates a number of in- Lab, where researcher Paulinyi Tamás teractive television shows. These in clude gave us an overview of the ex periments game shows that, critics complain, are he and his colleagues are conducting. essentially gambling enterprises (since They gave a demonstration (not an ac- they depend more on chance—the win- tual experiment of record) using me as a ning caller being picked randomly— test subject for a ganzfeld experiment. than skill) (“TV” 2006). Torocsik also This involves parapsychologists creating operates several psychic telephone net- an environment of sensory deprivation to works—in Spain, Romania, and the supposedly stimulate the subject’s recep- United States, as well as Hungary. (Do tivity of ESP (Guiley 1991, 225–26). Figure 3. The author serves as the subject of a ganzfeld demon- the psychics know who will win on the This particular laboratory has claimed stration—an experiment in telepathy—in a “psi” laboratory. game shows? Apparently not.) quite significant results, in contrast to placebo effect, and so on. As always, be- We skeptics had a debate with Toroc- others that have reportedly gotten only lievers emphasize any supposed suc- sik over the evidence for and against psy- average or low scores. cesses while ignoring the numerous chics and psychic phenomena. He was For the experiment, a random num- failures. opposed to his “psychics” being tested by ber generator was used to select one of Across the top of the mound is a famed magician and psychical investiga- a set of four pictures. I was then sub- ditch where an archaeological dig took tor James Randi, whose James Randi jected to mild sensory deprivation (in- place in 1924 in a search for traces of Educational Foun da tion (JREF) offers volving diffuse light and white noise) in Attila the Hun’s wooden palace. (His one million dollars to anyone who can, a soundproofed test room (figure 3) grave is also located at the site, accord- under scientific test conditions, demon- where Tamás joined me. Unknown to ing to legend.) Nothing was discovered strate genuine psychic ability. Torocsik me, Eles was chosen as “sender”—that relating to Attila, but of several un - asserted that Randi is not impartial is, one tasked with looking at the target earthed objects, one, attributed to the (when in fact JREF protocols eliminate picture and attempting to convey it to Scythians and now reposing in Hun - tester bias), and he claimed that “psi” me telepathically. gary’s National Museum, is descrip- (psychical phenomena) is too elusive to On request, I made verbal descrip- tively called the Golden Stag. Its name- be tested effectively! When I attempted tions and later a sketch of what I had sake is János’s restaurant, and the to make the case for the necessity of sci- envisioned in my mind’s eye, then was

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shown the four pictures and asked to twin had been male, Eles decided to go pick the one best matching my impres- with that. She also agreed with other sions. As it happened, my selection was gleanings by the medium that culmi- the one Eles had “sent.” This was only nated in the tale of the brother having a one-in-four guess, but everyone was died in a car accident caused by his own amused—both at the outcome and at drunkenness. Eles played her role ad- my pretense of having discovered I was mirably, and the medium swallowed the actually telepathic. bait, hook and all. Joking aside, I had some criticisms to As the medium prepared to commu- share, and the parapsychologists listened nicate with the alleged twin, she earnestly. I thought the person who warned us not to be afraid if she should monitors the experiment by sitting in the fail to emerge from her trance state but room and interacting with the test sub- simply try to revive her by calling her ject should not have seen (or actually name and having some water ready. I been familiar with) all of the two hun- took the warning as an indication that dred or so photos used in the series of the woman was going to put on a good ganzfeld experiments. And I wondered show, and I was not disappointed. She why the researchers did not attempt to knelt to pray, then sat in a chair where further test those subjects who scored she embarked on her voyage to the consistently well (or poorly, for that mat- Other Side (figure 4). Figure 4. Gypsy fortuneteller and medium is about to return ter), to see if their results might represent Suitably “entranced,” she was soon from the Other Side. (Photographs by Joe Nickell) only a statistical fluke or could have some spinning a “message” from the nonexist- other explanation. ent twin to Eles, who seemed obviously way, and the Roma woman was all (This entire subject is complicated moved by the heartfelt outpourings. At smiles. We were smiling too, from our and deserves a more detailed description length, the alleged communication over, different perspective. n and analysis than I am able to provide Eles dutifully attempted to revive the References here. Those who are further interested medium, who appeared to be immersed Attila Hill. 2011. Available online at www. should read the critiques of ganzfeld and in her role, eventually coming to with caboodle.hu; accessed February 24. other psi experiments by CSI’s Ray great histrionics, including a bout of sob- Eyewitness Travel: Hungary. 2007. New York: Hyman [1996; 2008], who is professor bing. After she had finally calmed down, Dorling Kindersley Publishing. emeritus of psychology at the University I asked her about her gifts, and she told Emory, C. Eugene. 1995. Telephone psychics: Friends or phonies? SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of Oregon and an expert in cognition, the us that her maternal grandmother had 19(5) (September/October): 14–17. psychology of deception, and the evi- also been clairvoyant. We were not quite Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Encyclopedia of the dence for paranormal claims, including prepared for what would soon be the Strange, Mystical, and Unexplained. New York: Gramercy Books. parapsychological ones.) most elaborate act of all: her attempt to Hyman, Ray. 1996. The evidence for psychic wrest from us a whopping fee. functioning. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 20(2) Wondering at the Gypsy’s Trance She apparently thought—wrongly (March/April): 24–26. The most sensational of our investigative again—that we were wealthy gorgios ———. 2008. Anomalous cognition. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 32(4) ( July/August): 40–43. adventures was surely our encounter with (non-gypsies) who would cough up a The Labyrinth of Buda Castle. N.d. Advertising a “gypsy” (Roma) fortuneteller and lot of cash. Not a speaker of Hungarian, card, obtained September 17, 2010. medium at her apartment in Budapest. I left it to Hrasko and Eles to conduct Nickell, Joe. 1990. Pen, Ink, and Evidence: A Study of Writing and Writing Materials for the Pen- She wore a colorful scarf and treated us the negotiations, which I could see were man, Collector, and Document Detective. to music from Radio C, the local Roma filled with reasoned if angry discourse Reprinted New Castle, Delaware: Oak Knoll channel, while I idly looked at her well- from our side and more anger, bluster, Press, 2000. worn deck of fortune-telling cards. For and histrionics from the Roma woman. ———. 2002. Benny Hinn: Healer or hypnotist? SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26(3) (May/June): 14–17. an unstated fee (more about that later) I had thought at one point we might ———. 2003. Dowsing mysterious sites. SKEP- she offered to enter into a trance in order throw down some cash and walk out, TICAL INQUIRER 27(3) (May/June): 14–17. to get some important advice that Eles but I did not know that—surrepti- Olsen, Brad. 2007. Sacred Places—Europe—108 Destinations. San Francisco, California: Con- was seeking from the spirit of her de- tiously following our entry into her sortium of Collective Consciousness, 128–32. ceased twin. apartment—she had locked us in! Randi, James. 1991. James Randi: Psychic Investi- Eles had invented the dead twin in a What a gal! Still, I will not use the term gator. London: Boxtree. Schmeh, Klaus. 2011. The Voynich manuscript: conversation with me on the way to the “attempted extortion.” Maybe she just The book nobody can read. SKEPTICAL IN- medium’s apartment. Her original did not want us to be disturbed. In QUIRER 35(1) ( January/February): 46–50. imaginary creation was female; however, time, for a fee of about fifty U.S. dol- Tietze, Harald. 2004. Dowsing Manual. N.p.: Harald W. Tietze Publishing. when the Roma woman (who does lars—excessive, considering the medi- A TV show makes millions with a call-in quiz soothsaying weekly on Radio C) began umistic communication was at best a that critics consider gambling. 2006. Inter - to fish for information and asked if the work of imagination—we were on our national Herald Tribune (November 20).

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NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD] MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

The Lost Girl Investigating a Case of “Psychic Detection”

n September 2005, the Italian media Bariffi, who was around thirty years old lice searched, but three years passed by was flooded with news about a psy- when she disappeared. “When I saw and no trace of her was ever found. Ichic, Maria Rosa Busi, who appar- the photo, I knew that she was dead,” Then a psychic came along who ently led the police to the body of a miss- Busi said. “I’m a clairvoyant. I can tell through magic visions saw and heard ing girl at the bottom of Lake Como. when someone is living or dead.” the girl calling from the depths of the Television and newspapers gave ample Police had no leads, and the missing lake, where rescue workers finally found coverage to the psychic, who claimed persons case languished. Murder was a her. A miracle! that an otherworldly vision allowed her possibility and, since Bariffi had also That is, until we looked deeper into to unravel the three-year-old mystery. battled emotional problems, some sus- the case. Along with CICAP’s col- She said she had been able to “see” the pected suicide. The family even thought league Marco Morocutti we decided to last moments of Chiara Bariffi’s life be- that Bariffi might have gone to Venice investigate. First, we retrieved press fore she drove into the lake in her car in or left the country for Spain. news clippings and articles relating to Busi. We found that she had also late 2002. She even claimed to have Remo Bonetti, a rescue worker who claimed success two years before, after heard a message from the deceased has led similar searches for bodies in finding the body of a woman who com- woman. “I went to the lake, and I saw the past, said that the mystery would mitted suicide in the Lake of Iseo. where it happened.... I heard her, I saw not have been solved without Busi’s However, in her statements she forgot her and I drew a map,” Busi said. “No- help. “Without the directions of Maria to mention that the husband of the body thought she was in the lake.” Rosa no one would have ever been able woman had also committed suicide, The psychic, who claims clairvoyant to find her, unless by accident,” he said. and his body had been retrieved from powers, was first contacted by the par- How “Psychic” Is the Seer? the waters of that lake just before the ents of the victim, who were trying to woman’s suicide. Also, the police had find out what happened to their daugh- This is how the case was first presented found the couple’s car, a purse with per- ter. They sent Busi a photograph of in the media: A girl went missing. Po- sonal documents belonging to the missing woman, and her cell phone by the same lake. Furthermore, before disap- pearing the woman had recorded a tape in which she expressed her intention to take her life. The fact that her body was found in the lake not far from where her husband was found does not seem as impressive once the background circumstances are known. Busi had also been in the news for claiming that the legendary “gold of Dongo,” the supposed treasure of Mus- solini, was buried in the Vittoriale, the museum that was once the house of cel- ebrated poet and Mussolini supporter Gabriele D’Annunzio. Several holes were dug in the park, but no treasure was ever found. “The treasure is there, I say. They just did not look hard enough,” the psychic still claimed. Self-proclaimed psychic Maria Rosa Busi holds up a photograph of Chiara Bariffi. Busi claims she knew Bariffi was dead as soon as she looked at the photo.

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What Really Happened at the Lake Now that the record of the claimed psychic was a little bit clearer, it was time to learn what happened at the time of Bariffi’s disappearance. On the night of November 30 and early morning of December 1, 2002, Bariffi was driving back home from an evening with friends. The drive was less three miles, but part of the trip was along the edge of Lake Como. That night, the weather bulletins tell us, a violent storm passed over the area. It was so strong that it created landslides on surrounding hills. Bariffi would never reach home that night; both she and her car vanished. Her disappearance was not so surprising once we knew a little more Chiara Bariffi is believed to have driven into Lake Como after losing control around this dangerous curve. about the circumstances surrounding it. without telling anyone. So a journalist less impressive than it did in the begin- Both Bariffi’s family and the police friend of Busi suggested to them that ning. Furthermore, as a consequence of supposed that the most likely explana- they contact the psychic and seek her the enormous exposure that Maria tion was that Bariffi’s car crashed help. The woman went to Como, Rosa Busi gained, she was later con- through the railings and plunged into learned the whole story, and then took tacted regarding other missing persons the water below. There was in particular a look at the road. At that moment, ei- cases. In 2006 a small boy was kid- a very dangerous and sharp bend in the ther by some “spirit message” or by napped near Parma, and a month later road overlooking the lake where, in the sheer deductive reasoning, she said that Busi claimed that she saw him alive and past, other cars had broken through and Bariffi had fallen into the lake in the well. After all, she had said that through fallen into the lake. Marco Morocutti very same spot where the police had her clairvoyant power she could “tell went to Como and saw three tomb- searched three years earlier. when someone is living or dead.” It later stones along the road: a grim reminder Maria Rosa Busi, however, had an turned out that the boy had been killed to drivers of how risky that bend can be. advantage over the police. She could by the kidnappers only a few hours after He also talked to residents who ex- count on the generous help of the vol- they took him. plained that there was road work being untary rescue group led by Remo Bo - After that, Maria Rosa Busi again conducted at the time of the disappear- netti, a group that had already found gave directions and drew maps that she ance and that sand was piled up along 120 lost people, most of them dead. said would help in finding a canoeist the railings—a situation that, coupled Unlike the police, the group had no who had disappeared in the Lake of with a slippery road and visibility made time limit and could use all kinds of Pusiano. Six years later, the canoeist is poor by the storm, was clearly a recipe modern technologies in their search. In still missing. for disaster. particular, they employed “Mercurio,” a But it seems that the media never The waters below that particular robot submarine that could reach a learn. Last January, after the month- bend were the first place the police depth of 1,600 feet—a faculty that the long disappearance of Yara Gam birasio, went searching. The only problem was police lacked. a thirteen-year-old girl who was last that the lake in that very spot is ap - It was just a matter of time and pa- seen leaving her school gym, Busi tried proximately seven hundred feet deep. tience before the cameras of the robot a comeback. “I am here because my Another car that had fallen there ten eventually found a car whose license conscience calls me. I feel I must do years earlier was never found. Scuba plate matched Bariffi’s. The lost girl something for that poor little girl,” she divers went looking anyway, but they had been found. said to journalists. “I feel she will be had no success. found; the family should be serene. After a while, the search for Bariffi The Media Never Learn Love will prevail and all will be well.” was interrupted. Bariffi’s parents started So that’s how things really happened at Two months later, the dead body of to imagine that maybe their daughter Lake Como. Once we know all the Yara was found in a nearby field. The was not dead after all but had run away facts, the psychic’s feat appears much killer is still at large.

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[THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York–Lehman College, a fellow of the American Association for the Advance ment of Science, and author of Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. His essays can be found at www.rationallyspeaking.org.

The Hopeless War against Intelligent Design

hose of us who have spent years ar- would ID proponents have to do in apologetic apologetics” has a range of op- guing against creationists of all order to be taken seriously and avoid tions available, all the way up to taking Tstripes inevitably begin to think that being dismissed as simply a bunch of seriously W.V.O. Quine’s suggestion the struggle is hopeless, at least in one conservative Christian ideologues look- that each and every thread of the “web sense: it seems to simply be impossible to ing for any excuse to impose their the- of knowledge,” including the rules of persuade any major proponent of the istic views on the rest of us? logic itself, ought to be up for discus- other side that there is something seri- I realize that it is hard to let go of the sion if there is sufficient reason to ously wrong with what he or she is doing. latter—tempting, and somewhat empir- doubt its accuracy. Now, it is tempting to just shrug one’s ically justified—assumption. But let us Quine was one of the most influen- shoulders and mutter something along try for a moment and see where Shear- tial philosophers of the twentieth cen- the lines of “Well, they are a bunch of id- mur manages to go. First off, Shearmur tury, and he did have a major point to iots blindly driven by their ideology,” gives ID proponents credit over their make to the effect that there are no sa- after which we order a beer with our fel- main intellectual rival within the Chris- cred cows in science, philosophy, or low skeptics and further commiserate the tian tradition, theological modernism— even logic and math. (According to sorry state of affairs when it comes to ra- and rightly so, I think. Shearmur argues Quine, if our best understanding of the tionality in this world. that the theological modernist position, world is incompatible with some of the Except, of course, that that’s a bit too which somewhat lackadaisically recon- laws of logic, so much the worse for the easy. For one thing, you can rest assured ciles science and faith, fails in two major laws of logic.) That said, as Shearmur that someone on “the other side” is shrug- ways: first, because it keeps remaking immediately agrees, going that route ging his shoulders and muttering similar God into whatever image happens to be would be very dangerous for Dembski comments in perfect symmetry—though compatible with the latest science, i.e., it and colleagues: “Such an approach can since often proponents of intelligent de- succeeds through a theological copout; be only defensive—and it is also in sign (ID) are fundamentalist Chris tians second, because it does so without the in- principle a strategy open to any view, they probably wouldn’t do it over a beer. tellectual courage to acknowledge its however silly it might actually be. Its Yes, of course we are right and they are marked retreat from the historical Chris- pursuit simply shows that a view can be wrong, but what exactly makes us so sure tian tradition. In other words, Dembski maintained, not that it is true.” that the charge of ideological blindness and Co. are theologically braver than And indeed, in the end Shearmur ought to stick to them but not to us? their almost-anything-goes mainstream concludes that that is precisely ID’s That is why I found interesting a colleagues within Chris tian apologetics. Achilles’ heel. Even if we take the ef- paper published in the philosophy jour- Okay, but what about the (alleged) forts of Johnson, Dembski, and Behe at nal Sophia by Jeremy Shear mur titled science? Shearmur reconstructs Demb - face value as an intellectually honest “Why the ‘Hopeless War’? Approach- ski’s approach within the context of a pursuit for an alternative type of sci- ing Intelli gent Design” (published on- renaissance (so to speak) of Princeton ence, the fact remains that they haven’t line on December 4, 2010). Shearmur Theological Seminary’s “old” school, as even begun to do anything beyond wishes to take seriously the fact that the developing “a striking line in meta- (highly questionable in itself ) negative ID movement is not fueled by a bunch physics in which he reinterprets ideas critical work. There are no experiments of bumbling idiots but by people like about the Word from St. John’s gospel being done by ID proponents; there is UC Berkeley lawyer Phillip Johnson, into a research program for the under- no organic research program; there is Prince ton Theological Seminary grad- standing of the world.” This really does- no detailed theoretical explanation of uate William Dembski, and Lehigh n’t sound like a promising beginning, intelligent design as a process. The Uni versity biochemist Michael Behe. but Shearmur (who, I should add, is a question then becomes this: Is such a Shearmur is simply trying to see what nonbeliever) valiantly pursues his quest dearth of progress the result of the would happen if one were to take these to give ID its best shot. newness of modern ID (as compared to, people at their word, as genuinely try- Dembski’s program faces one initial, say, William Paley’s pre-Darwinian ver- ing to build a non-naturalistic alterna- huge hurdle, though: if he wishes to sion), or is there an intrinsic reason that tive to modern science by way of out- reestablish modern science in a way that a theologically inspired scientific re- lining a theory of intelligent design that is seriously compatible with the Chris- search program is an oxymoron? Shear- does a better explanatory job of the his- tian scripture, he needs to ac count for the mur doesn’t see why the latter conclu- tory of life than the Darwinian theory problem of error within scripture itself. sion should hold. I can’t imagine any of evolution. The question is then, what Shearmur states that Dembski’s “un- reason why it shouldn’t. n

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[ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER “Psychic Vibrations” has appeared in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for over thirty years. Sheaffer is also author of UFO Sightings: The Evi dence (Prometheus Books, 1998). He blogs at www.BadUFO.com.

UFO Mothership and Fleet over London

nother implausible video show- fake. The burden of proof is on someone ing UFOs has gone viral, spawn- who claims it shows unknown crafts to A ing a flurry of news stories by rule out all prosaic explanations. And major media outlets. For example, the since the film was posted anonymously, Daily Mail in London asks, “Are aliens this makes it all the more dubious. getting less camera shy? UFOs filmed Using the terminology of Myth busters, above BBC building in London” we already know enough to call this (http://tinyurl.com/63cactp). The Huf - video “busted.” But also in the spirit of fington Post reports, “London UFOs: Myth busters, let’s not stop there. Let’s Multiple People Capture Odd Occur- see if we can really blow this thing rence Over British City” (al though not apart. at the same place and time; see http:// British UFOlogist Nick Pope isn’t tinyurl.com/43qfz4r). The video that buying the video’s authenticity (http:// started it all, posted by a photographer tinyurl.com/3j2rloy). That’s bad for the known only as “alymc01,” can be seen video, since Pope, currently on tour to at www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDIF- promote the DVD release of the Holly - ZwJbF0. We see a lot of seemingly ran- wood space alien movie Battle: Los An- dom (and pointless) filming of people geles, buys a lot of dicey things. But ap- on the street. The camera points sky- parently this video looks unimpressive ward, and we see some small UFOs and even to him. Interest ingly, Pope adds, then finally a big one (the “mother- “The slightly suspicious thing, though, ship”) moving in and out of the clouds. is it’s a part of London where it just so One has to admit that the video happens that a large number of film looks pretty cheesy. The big “mother- companies and visual effects companies ship” looks a bit like a lens flare, but it are based. And some of the people do does not act like a lens flare; its move- look a little bit self-satisfied. So I sus- ment is unrelated to that of the camera. pect this is a CGI hoax, and that some- At first I thought that the small UFOs one is showcasing their skills.” A per- were birds, but on closer examination ceptive comment! they appear to be generated artifacts. Surprisingly, the most useful com- Actually, the video is alymc01’s second mentary on this video was found on the UFO video. His earlier video (www.you UFO and conspiracy-oriented website tube.com/watch?v=8nN6mhnD7E0) Above Top Secret (www.abovetopse- doesn’t look nearly as impressive, so it cret.com/forum/thread720773/pg1). was largely ignored. The forum participants, mostly anony- There was a great deal of commen- mous, dug deeply and turned up facts tary, but it did not go beyond comments that the “experts” seem to have over- like “this looks like a computer-gener- looked. Of course, many of the com- ated fake.” And strictly speaking, that’s ments in that very long thread are cred- enough. After all, the burden of proof is ulous and foolish, and I don’t want to not on the skeptic to show that a video is imply that all of the participants are

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credible researchers. But I am definitely ing at 1:00 and after, and stabilizing street in London. If you google search impressed with a few of them. the video. You can see they did a hor- that building You will eventually find “C-Buzz” commented, “100% CGI. rible job motion tracking the camera this page [http://ny.beam.tv/who-we-a movement . . . probably because they 1:18–1:22 the object doesn’t actually go have a rolling shutter camera. If you re/the-mill], which is a tv production behind the clouds, it fades out. Not only watch the UFO you can see it is not company that is in the very same build- that, it looks like he stuffed up creating shaking with the camera perfectly, it ing.” Dave spanners then goes on to this animation because if you have a is shaking independently. However quote from the company’s website: “The look at the bottom left there is actually the “UFO” is shaking [at] the same Mill creates pioneering visual effects for rate and nearly the same magnitude, a lighting effect which probably isn’t its direction and position are just not the advertising, music, television and supposed to be there and a RED orb synchronized. That to me indicates film in dustries. We craft commercials, music videos and generate compelling film and TV. We build installations, pro- jections, applications and create multi- media content and experiences.” “EnigmaAgent” replies with a photo If you place a video on YouTube showing taken from that company’s website of how a UFO video was faked, the hoaxer Managing Director Mike Smallwood, who appears to be the same man seen will contact YouTube to force you to smiling in the video—apparently en- joying this incident way too much. remove your analysis, claiming “Heliocentric” dug further and found a link from the Mill’s website to a partic- “copyright infringement.” ular commercial for Sony. And that same Sony commercial is a “favorite” on the YouTube page of alymc01, who photographed the “UFOs.” The noose tightens! Chillingly, GiftOfProphecy ob serves moving across the building.” It’s hard to several bad motion track points. In that video hoaxers are now using claims order to insert a fake UFO into the see, but it’s there. There’s also a brief video they had to track certain pixels of “copyright infringement” to make “green flash” on the building as well as a as they move and shake around, then YouTube remove videos showing how suspicious-looking red color on the apply that tracking to the UFO so it an original video was hoaxed: moves exactly the same as the camera “mothership.” I’m not enough of an ex- The hoaxer “50nFit” is claiming copy- pert on digital processing to know what (match moving). Sometimes the pixels will move, say 10 pixels in one di- right infringement on the video that this means, but it reeks of digital tamper- rection, yet the computer detected proves his Jerusalem video is a ing. Sharp eyes, C-Buzz! the pixels move 12 pixels, and that hoax. ... Now the videos that prove his “LiveEquation” posts: creates a bad tracking point. Norm - London UFOs are a hoax were ally you can fix bad tracking points removed to avoid complete suspension The video is a scam right and I have by hand, but when there is about 30 [of the debunkers’ YouTube accounts]. evidence. If you start watching the tracking points per second, it be - The “HOAXKiller1” chan nel may video at 1:21 you will see two artificial comes very time consuming. If you be suspended anyway because You- bubble glares and then delay of the apply the motion tracks to the UFO Tube doesn’t understand Fair Use laws, UFO glare. The UFO vanishes into when it has bad track points, it will and allows the deceptive scumbag the clouds first. Then you see 2 fake wobble and shake around similar to hoaxers to retaliate and claim copyright bubble glares and the ufo glare moving what you see in the video. on videos that are for research and in the same direction after the UFO analysis. has already vanished, delay of about 1 “Charlyv” noted, “Fake, stop action in In other words, if you place a video second. It’s actually weird that the frames shows no motion blur, Im pos- UFO cast a glare. That’s a giveway on YouTube showing how a UFO video sible for such recorded speeds in any [sic]. The person who made the video was faked, the hoaxer will contact consumer digital camera, regardless of doesn’t know jack about optics. YouTube to force you to remove your make or resolution.” Then “davespan- analysis, claiming “copyright infringe- “GiftOfProphecy” adds, ners” opens up a whole new angle of in- ment.” This video is clearly fake. You can vestigation: “This is filmed outside coral prove it by watching the video start- bookmakers in clipstone / great portland * * * * *

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Once again, the mass media was re- it. The region between them represents interview people to find out exactly cently filled with breathtaking nonsense a mirage image of distant water. The which buildings are being seen in the about a “ghostly mirage city” allegedly Weather Doctor has a pretty good ex- video and where those buildings are lo- seen from Huanshan City in the east- planation of mirages (see http://tiny cated, thus solving the “mystery”? Aus- ern part of China over the Xin’an River. url.com/3rvko5n). tralian photographer and film producer The phenomenon went viral starting When I was a student at North- Auki Henry did exactly that (see with a dreadful June 26 piece in the western University my dorm room http://tinyurl.com/3jnqkzk). He says, Daily Mail of London, which pro- faced Lake Michigan. The double hori- “The reality was bad Chinese transla- claims, “Ghostly apparition of entire zon of the superior mirage was actually tion combined with hyper-sensational- city appears over Chinese river ... but is it just a mirage?” (http://tinyurl.com /5t94s7f). In fact, it’s neither, as we will see. This story was accompanied by an equally dreadful video (www.youtube .com/watch?v=WwLhXmnbtTM). Why is it that no reporter bothered to do Now the buildings in the video are his or her job and get to the bottom of obviously real because the details are quite sharp. Mirages are very different. this story? News reporters don’t want Mirages are not something imaginary or dream-like. They are a perfectly real to get facts. They want to get ratings. phenomenon of meteorological optics: the behavior of light in the atmosphere, And why let mere facts get in the way where temperatures can often vary dramatically, result in different indices of of a great story? refraction and hence non-straight light paths—think of a fun house mirror. Mirage images are never as detailed as these Chinese images because the different atmospheric layers are not stable a fairly common sight in the spring- ist reporting. All the buildings in the enough to preserve details like that. time, when warmer air would blow in footage are real buildings, not visions, Furthermore, mirage images always from the south over the still quite frigid mirages or illusions, they actually phys- bring into view objects many miles dis- lake. At night, images of lights of cities ically stand exactly where they were tant, not close up like in this video. in Indiana and Michi gan normally filmed. The only thing out of the ordi- There are two different kinds of mi- below the horizon would occasionally nary here is they are surrounded by rages, superior and inferior. The inferior become visible. Similarly, people stand- floodwater and mist.” mirage is caused by cooler air overlay- ing on the lakeshore in southwest Henry has nailed down every signif- ing much warmer air, creating images Michigan periodically re port seeing icant detail. He gives us a map showing that appear lower than they actually are. dramatic nighttime UFOs over the the location of each of the “ghost” It is by far the most common. Usually water—they are probably seeing mirage buildings. And as far as I can tell he did it results in a strip of the sky seeming images of the lights of Chicago pop it without even going to China or in- to bend downward below the horizon. into view. terviewing anyone there. The Xin’an It’s often seen on highways on hot days, Any reporter worthy of that title River was at flood stage, and the waters looking like distant water. The superior would have followed through and de- generated fog that obscured the bottom mirage is more in teresting, and rarer, as termined exactly what was being seen: parts of the building, making the tops objects appear higher than they actually which buildings those were in the video of the buildings appear to be floating in are, resulting in things becoming visible and their location. Certainly at least air. And there’s your big mystery solved. that are normally beyond the curvature some people who live in that area Why is it that no reporter bothered of the earth. That Chinese “ghost city” would be able to identify those build- to do his or her job and get to the bot- is neither type of mirage. Typically with ings and show on a map exactly where tom of this story? News reporters don’t a superior mirage you will see a double each building is. If you are in Huan shan want to get facts. They want to get ratings. horizon: an often slanted false horizon City and you speak Chinese or have an And why let mere facts get in the way on top, with the actual horizon below interpreter, how difficult would it be to of a great story? n

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[ THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE STEVEN NOVELLA Steven Novella, MD, is assistant professor of neurology at Yale School of Medicine, the host of the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, author of the NeuroLogica blog, executive editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog, and president of the New England Skeptical Society.

Have You Had Your Antioxidants Today?

successful marketing campaign be found in nature (especially from can be scarily effective—make a some obscure tropical fruit). Unfortu- A claim enough times and people nately, the evidence does not support will believe it. Then just take the claim the claim that there are any health ben- for granted; it becomes something every - efits to taking antioxidants. one knows and no one questions. Back it The theory behind antioxidant claims up with some “sciencey” razzle-dazzle sounds very compelling. Oxi dants are and link it to a combination of fear and chemicals (free radicals, also called reac- hope, and you can have an entire indus- tive oxygen species or ROS) that are the try based on nothing but marketing products of metabolism; they are highly hype. reactive and can cause damage to pro- Take antioxidants (or rather, don’t teins and cells. This damage is a major take them): if you believe the hype, then contributor to aging and disease. Antiox- you want them in your food; you want idants neutralize these free radicals and to take them as pills; and you want the prevent damage. maximum most powerful Unfortunately, medical science is antioxidants that can rarely so clean and simple. This nice story is true, as far as it goes (the best lies always contain a kernel of truth). Twenty years ago this was the state of our knowledge of ROS and antioxidants, and there was legitimate hope that antioxidants would be a useful therapeutic tool. However, as research continued we learned that the picture is more complex: The body has evolved a natural defense against the onslaught of ROS. These compounds are called free radical scavengers or antioxidants (such as the protein superoxide dismutase and some vitamins like C and E) and their job is to gobble up ROS before they can damage cells. In addition, some ROS actually serve a purpose in the body, for example as signals to cells or as neurotransmitters

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(nitric oxide). In fact, the body has evolved a balanced and complex system to maintain homeostasis between ROS and antioxidants. Influencing that system by taking large amounts of exoge- nous antioxidants may not be such a good idea. In other words, if a balance between ROS and antioxidants has e- If a balance between free radicals and volved, there is no reason to believe that there are any benefits to tipping the antioxidants has e volved, there is no scales in one direction—toward antioxidants. In fact, doing so may cause harm. reason to believe that there are any What does the actual clinical evidence show? Well, to find out we have benefits to tipping the scales in one to go claim by claim. direction—toward antioxidants. The best current evidence shows that antioxidant vitamins are of no use in im- In fact, doing so may cause harm. proving cognitive function or in preventing dementia (Gray et al. 2008). If we look at other specific neurodegenerative diseases, the picture is a bit more complex. Some studies show that vitamin E (but not C) may slightly re duce the risk of motor neuron disease, but only in is also less than definitive. In addition, going out of your way to eat lots of an- women (Wang et al. 2011). Overall, the it actually suggests the potential for tioxidants in food or to take antioxidant evidence is ambiguous and does not sup- harm. A comprehensive review pub- supplements. In fact, doing so may be port a benefit for treatment. lished in 2008 concluded: “We found harmful. This evidence is at odds with In Parkinson’s disease (PD) the pic- no evidence to support antioxidant sup- the overwhelming marketing hype that ture is more complex. There is some ev- plements for primary or secondary pre- has successfully created an irrational de- idence that eating foods rich in vitamin vention. Vitamin A, beta-carotene, and mand for a dubious product. n E may help prevent PD, but taking vi- vitamin E may increase mortality” (Bje- tamin E supplements does not. So per- lakovic et al. 2008). References: haps it is something other than the vi- That’s right—there might be an in - Bjelakovic, G., D. Nikolova, L.L. Gluud, et al. tamin E in these foods that is of benefit, creased risk of death from taking vita- 2008. Antioxidant supplements for preven- tion of mortality in healthy participants and or perhaps eating healthy foods in gen- mins A and E. The data is far from de- patients with various diseases. Cochrane Data- eral is simply a marker for some other finitive, but it shows that we cannot base of Systematic Reviews 2008, Issue 2. Arti- variable that protects against PD. Other assume that supplements, even vita- cle No.: CD007176. Gray, S.L., M.L. Anderson, P.K. Crane, et al. studies show a benefit from taking the mins, are harmless. It also shows that 2008. Antioxidant vitamin supplement use vitamin supplements but not changing we need to be humble with our simplis- and risk of dementia or Alzheimer’s disease diet (Miyake et al. 2011). In other tic theories of biology. Until the re- in older adults. Journal of the American Geri- atrics Society 56(2) (February): 291–295, doi: words, the evidence is ambiguous. search has had time to fully explore a 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2007.01531.x. It is reasonable to conduct further biological question, we should not be Miyake, Y., W. Fukushima, K. Tanaka, et al. 2011. research into antioxidants and degen- confident in our extrapolations to clin- Parkinson’s disease study group. Die tary intake of antioxidant vitamins and risk of erative diseases. Current evidence is ical effect. Therefore, even when the Parkinson’s disease: A case-control study in mixed, without any clear benefit, but theory sounds good, we always need to Japan. European Journal of Neurology 18(1) there is enough positive preliminary ev- do clinical studies to see what the net (January): 106–13, doi: 10.1111/j.1468- 1331.2010.03088.x. idence to continue to study the poten- effects are in humans. Wang, H., É.J. O’Reilly, M.G. Weisskopf, et al. tial of antioxidants in preventing de- When it comes to antioxidants, there 2011.Vitamin E intake and risk of amy- generative diseases. is still the potential that they may be otrophic lateral sclerosis: A pooled analysis of data from 5 prospective cohort studies. Amer- The evidence for taking antioxidant useful in specific situations. At present, ican Journal of Epidemiology 173(6) (March): supplements in the general population however, there is no evidence to support 595–602.

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[SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor and books editor/columnist for the Human ist and a contributing editor for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. He may be reached at [email protected].

The Effect of Teachers Unions on Student Performance

“People who do well under the status quo, hanks in part to Davis Guggen - to escape their local schools. whether it’s the unions, whether it’s the heim’s 2010 documentary, Waiting Although Guggenheim is a liberal politicians . . . will protect a status quo Tfor “Superman,” many Americans are private-sector union member himself, that serves their needs, even if it doesn’t aware of the demoralizing struggles stu- his movie highlights the ominous role serve the needs of students. We have to dents often face in public schools—espe- of public-sector teachers unions in pro- move to a customer-focused school system.” cially in disadvantaged districts. This tecting bad educators and their perverse —Joel Klein, former chancellor poignant film features several desperate rules. Also emphasized is their stubborn of New York City schools families that want nothing more than to opposition to charter schools and, worst (2002–2010) save their children’s lives by helping them of all, their tendency to make constructive change gallingly difficult. Superman also highlights the infamous “Rubber Rooms” of New York City. Beginning in 2009, these Tem - porary Reassignment Centers quar- tered more than seven hundred teachers considered too incompetent to re main in class. They didn’t teach, of course, but they arrived at and departed from the Rubber Rooms every day at the regular time, as if they were still earning their living. They were paid full salaries with full benefits. They had vacations and summers off. In salary and benefits alone, these defective teachers siphoned between $35 million and $65 million per year from their city’s already impoverished school budget—a lot of money that could have been spent on children. Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Chan - cellor Klein tried to detach them from the payroll, but state tenure laws, restrictive collective bargaining contracts, and the United Federation of Teach- ers—which dared to compare its members’ Rubber Rooms to the prisons at Guantanamo—made such a commonsense solution impossible. How could this happen in a community that truly values education? “The New York City school district is

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not organized to provide the best pos- when bad teachers are paid more and non-teaching duties, including lunch sible education to its children,” argues good teachers less than their actual duty and hall duty. They also give teach- Terry Moe, professor of political sci- worth? Politically powerless children, of ers time off for union purposes. ence at Stanford University and senior course. Unions love smaller class sizes, Unions may claim what’s good for fellow at the Hoover Institution (Moe too—but contrary to popular belief, teachers is good for students, but most 2011). Instead, thanks to union-influ- normal class size reductions have almost people, Moe guesses, “would be ab- enced legislation and the contemptible no impact on student learning. solutely shocked” to know what’s really rules contained in the collective bar- “The unions pursue their own inter- lurking in the collective bargaining gaining contract, “the district is literally ests,” Moe confirms, “and policies good contracts that govern their kids’ educa- organized to protect bad teachers and to for the unions are often bad for kids” tion and determine their futures. undermine the efforts of leaders to en- (Moe 2006). Let’s glance at just a few sure teacher quality.” of the diktats that typically show up in How Do Teachers Unions Affect Student Today, the National Education As - collective bargaining contracts: Performance? so ciation (NEA) and American Federa - Arguably, the most maddening rules “I find that teachers’ unions are primarily tion of Teachers (AFT) are 4.5 million require that teachers be paid on a salary rent seeking, raising school budgets and members strong and clearly the most schedule, based on years of experience school inputs but lowering student achieve - powerful interest groups in Amer ican and education—never on performance. ment by decreasing the productivity of education, perhaps in all of politics. Other rules make it nearly impossible inputs.” Union dues alone provide them with as- to dismiss teachers for poor performance —Caroline Hoxby, professor of tounding sums of cash for campaign and mandate complex, time-consuming labor economics at Harvard contributions and lobbying strategies. grievance procedures. Some require prin- University in 1996 They rank first among the top twenty- cipals to give advance warn ing to teach- five all-time donors in federal elections. ers before visiting their classrooms and The professional, peer-reviewed litera- For example, they contributed $59,354 - allow teachers, not principals, to make ture has remained frustratingly silent on ,731—95 percent of which went to De- decisions about transfers and class the issue of how unions affect student mocrats—between 1989 and 2010. assignments. performance. Fortunately, however, two During the 2010 election cycle alone, The rules also limit the number and district- and school-level studies—as op- the NEA spent $40 million, giving $2 duration of faculty meetings and parent posed to those at the state level, which million directly to Democratic candi- conferences that teachers can be re- tend to be highly aggregated and poorly dates. At the same time, the AFT quired to attend and the number of controlled—have been published in top- awarded $2.6 million to Democrats minutes teachers can be required to be quality academic journals. Each con- compared to $8,000 to Republicans. on campus. They guarantee teachers a cludes that collective bargaining for They send armies of well-trained ac- certain amount of “prep time” away teachers has a significantly negative effect tivists to every political district in the from their students and restrict teachers’ on student performance. country. At any time, they can finance highly effective media campaigns on any topic or for any candidate they like. “No other group in the politics of education,” Moe laments, “representing administrators, say, or school boards or disadvan- Unions fight hard for across-the-board taged kids or parents or taxpayers, even comes close to having such weaponry.” teacher pay raises, but who loses So how much of this power is ever converted into policies that actually when bad teachers are paid more benefit education? Unions do cause in- and good teachers less than their creased spending, but money per se has little if any effect on student achieve- actual worth? Politically powerless ment. While student test scores since 1970 haven’t budged, we’ve spent more children, of course. than twice as many inflation-adjusted dollars on every child. Unions fight hard for across-the- board teacher pay raises, but who loses

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The first was a national study pub- ing that increasing pay parity with men Moe concluded that “collective bargain- lished by Caroline Hoxby, who set out in non-teaching occupations began to ing does indeed have negative conse- to explain three related “empirical puz- draw women out of teaching. But the quences for student achievement, and zles” (Hoxby 1996). First, and most gen- evidence proved otherwise. Instead, that the effects are concentrated on pre- erally, why did school inputs (govern- smart people were being “pulled” out of cisely those districts and schools—large ment spending) have a significant effect education because of increasing com- districts, high-minority schools—that, on student outputs (performance) prior pression of teachers’ pay. Good, bad, or over the years have been the worst per- to around 1960—when states began ugly, all teachers are essentially treated formers and most difficult to improve.” granting teachers the right to collectively alike. Why? Because unions not only So, although almost everyone suffers bargain—but not after that time? defend ineffective teachers, they rou- because of teachers unions and collec- Second, why do the data continue to tinely oppose merit pay for exceptional tive bargaining rights, minority kids show no relationship between school teachers. Unions and collective bargain- confined to big cities suffer the most. inputs and student learning, even after ing, Hoxby and Leigh discovered, de- “It follows,” Moe adds hopefully, controlling for students’ socio-eco- serve much of the blame for the dumb- “that efforts to boost achievement in nomic background? Third, why do ing-down of educators as well as their these contexts, as well as to reduce the metropolitan areas with few opportu- hapless students. achievement gap between whites and nities for competition among public But Terry Moe would publish the minorities, need to recognize that col- schools tend to show more generous in- second and most revealing study on lective bargaining may be part of the puts (for example, higher per-pupil point. Therein, he addressed the issue problem—and that it deserves to be spending, higher teacher salaries, and from an entirely new angle. Using a taken seriously as a target of reform.” lower student-to-teacher ratios) yet large, random sample of California Short of actually abolishing teacher col- poorer student performance? school districts—all engaged in collec- lective bargaining rights, he advises that Hoxby initially noted the precise tive bargaining—Moe carefully probed “reducing the restrictiveness of labor timing of legislation facilitating teacher the actual contents of the resulting contracts could have significant payoffs unionization and collective bargaining. labor contracts (Moe 2009). for public education.” She then analyzed district data from He then coded the many rules con- The social stakes are astronomically across the United States—on student tained in the agreements according to high in public education. Parents and dropout rates in particular—to isolate their “restrictiveness,” the degree to students should guard themselves against the impact of union activity on student which they shackled the hands of teachers unions’ many excesses, and performance. school administrators—precisely the America can no longer tolerate educa- As the above quote suggests, Hoxby people we elect to ensure quality edu- tional mediocrity. Yes, we should reward discovered that teachers unions produce cation. The most restrictive rules, by effective educators who in crease their two highly regrettable effects: they cause Moe’s estimation, gave teachers the students’ success. But teachers must ac- taxpayers to spend more on education right to make voluntary transfers (thus cept effective performance standards and and, at the same time, they decrease denying administrators the opportuni- the real-world pressures that attend school productivity. In other words, the ties to send good teachers where they them. In an upcoming column, I’ll ad- overall impact of unions on society and are needed most), limited the number dress reform in teacher compensation education is decisively negative. Unions of students that teachers were required and accountability. n use their political power and the process to instruct, and thwarted the teacher References: of collective bargaining to waste our evaluation process. Hoxby, C.M. 1996. How teachers’ unions affect money. Finally, Moe applied a second vari- education production. The Quarterly Journal Somewhat incidentally, in a later able: the California Academic Per form - of Economics 111(3): 671–718. study Hoxby and Andrew Leigh from ance Index, which assigns each school Hoxby, C.M., and A. Leigh. 2004. Pulled away or pushed out? Explaining the decline of the National Bureau of Economic Re - a score determined by the performance teacher aptitude in the United States. Amer - search explored why, since 1960, the of its students. He then framed the ican Economic Review 94(2): 236–40. share of teachers in the highest aptitude issue concisely as such: “Whether, in Moe, Terry. 2006. Union power and education of children. In Jane Hannaway and Andrew category (top 5 percent of all college using their power to secure rules that Rotherham, eds., Collective Bargaining in Ed- grads) fell from 5 percent to 1 percent, advance the occupational interests of ucation: Negotiating Change in Today’s Schools. and the share of teachers in the lowest their members, the teachers unions are Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard Educa- tion Press. aptitude category (bottom 25 percent of (unintentionally) limiting the public ———. 2009. Collective bargaining and the per- all college grads) rose from 16 to 36 per- schools’ capacity to educate children.” formance of the public schools. American cent (Hoxby and Leigh 2004). After controlling for variables per- Journal of Political Science 53(1): 156–74. ———. 2011. Special Interest: Teachers Unions and Initially, Hoxby and Leigh expected taining to student backgrounds and the America’s Public Schools. Washington, DC: to prove the “pull” hypothesis, propos- traits of particular schools and districts, Brookings Institution Press.

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[SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of six books, including Tracking the Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folklore.

Kinoki Drains Wallet, Not Toxins

I saw an advertisement for something called Kinoki Foot Pads, which seem to detoxify your feet. I wouldn’t in my right mind buy these things, : but what’s the skeptical take on them? Q —R. Hagen

Claims of “detoxification” popular in recent years. fective sales tool is the pads themselves, and “cleansing” have been Kinoki promotional literature de- which do indeed turn unappetizing col- important (and lucrative) scribes how the large, adhesive band- ors within a day or two of being placed : for the New Age and al - ages work: on the body. All that black, disgusting ternative medicine in dus- Formulated in Japan using all-nat- color must be toxins coming from some- A tries. The world is full of ural tree extracts and powerful nega- where, right? Well, maybe not. One dangerous toxins, New Agers claim, and tive ions to rid the body of harmful writer, Chris Wool ston (2008) of the Los in order to get healthy and “balanced” toxins, this foot pad works on the Angeles Times, did a little “not-quite sci- (whatever that means) you need to peri- principle of foot reflexology. Simply place the pads on the soles of your entific experiment: I put a few drops of odically remove impurities from your feet (or a targeted body part such as sterile saline solution on a fresh pad. The body. “High Co lonic Irrigation Colon the shoulder or knee) before going to Cleans ing” is said to remove contami- bed. By morning the pad will have result: a dark-gray, unsightly mess that nants and detoxify your intestines for absorbed toxins accumulated in your looked exactly like the pads I’d been “improved health, more active lifestyle, body from pollution, radiation expo- pulling off my feet. Either moisture and a more enjoyable, exciting life,” ac- sure, etc., turning the white pad to a alone can discolor the pads or the saline shade from gray to black. cording to one typical website. Then industry has some explaining to do. The there’s the old-fashioned toxin removal The Kinoki pads remove “heavy metals, pads also turned dark after a few min- method of sweating—though, as I dis- metabolic wastes, toxins, parasites, chem- utes near a warm fireplace.” cussed in an earlier “Skeptical Inquiree” icals, and cellulite” from the body. No If people feel better after using the column (“Sweating the Small Stuff,” SI, need for expensive liposuction or plastic Kinoki pads, it’s for the same reason that surgery: the pads remove cellulite! And May/June 2010), contrary to popular be- people feel better after using other dis- lief sweat does not actually remove tox- since they absorb radiation, they can credited devices like magnetic insoles or ins. And don’t forget ear candling, a apparently also be used in the event of Power Band bracelets: the placebo effect. bogus procedure by which ear wax and nuclear accidents, like the one that dev- toxins are supposedly drawn out of the astated Japan earlier this year. People subjectively re port feeling better ear using a lit, hollow candle tube (see How exactly this is done is never ex- after getting any treatment, whether ef- “On Ear Cones and Candling,” SI, Sep- plained. How do the pads know which fective or sham. Kinoki pads may not tember/October 2000). of the body’s countless chemicals (many leach toxins from your feet, but they do Actually, the human body does a of them crucial for good health) to re- leach money from your wallet. n pretty good job of eliminating toxins on move? Furthermore, even if the pads its own. Virtually all products claiming worked as described they couldn’t leach Reference to cleanse and detoxify the body are out enough toxins or heavy metals to Woolston, Chris. 2008. Kinoki foot pads’ detox worthless and unnecessary. Still, that make a difference. claims don’t stand up to science. The Los An- geles Times. Available online at www.latimes doesn’t stop their being marketed, and For those not impressed by the plen- .com/features/health/la-he-skeptic22-2008 Kinoki foot pads are one of the most tiful testimonials, perhaps the most ef- sep22,0,2825052.story.

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Much Ado about Nothing

Anti-Stratfordians start with the answer they want and work backward to the evidence—the opposite of good science and scholarship. They reverse the standards of objective inquiry, replacing them with pseudoscience and pseudohistory.

ould a mere commoner have been the greatest and most admired playwright of the English language? In- deed,C could a “near-illiterate” have amassed the “encyclopedic” knowledge that fills page after page of plays and poetry attributed to William Shakespeare of Stratford- upon-Avon? Those known as “anti-Strat - fordians” insist the works were penned by another, one more worthy in their estimation, as part of an elaborate conspiracy that may even involve secret messages en- crypted in the text.

Now, there are serious, scholarly questions relating to Shakespeare’s authorship, as I learned while doing graduate work at the University of Kentucky and teaching an under- graduate course, Survey of English Literature. For a chapter of my dissertation, I investigated the questioned attribution of the play Pericles to see whether it was a collaborative effort (as some scholars suspected, seeing a disparity in style between the first portion, acts I and II, and the remainder) or—as I found, taking an innovative approach—entirely written by Shakespeare (see Nickell 1987, 82–108). How- ever, such literary analysis is quite different from the efforts of the anti-Stratfordians, who are mostly nonacademics and, according to one critic (Keller 2009, 1–9), “pseudo-scholars.” SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:44 PM Page 39

by Joe Nickell

Through-the-Looking-Glass Syndrome Countless more examples could be given. Anthropologist Like many other crank ideas and conspiracy theories, the no- Grover Krantz believed that Bigfoot—indeed as portrayed tion that William Shakespeare did not write the plays and in the famously faked Roger Patterson “Bigsuit” film of poems attributed to him may at first sight seem absurd. But 1967—was the surviving giant ape Giganto pithecus. Harvard step through the looking glass (to use Lewis Carroll’s term) psychiatrist John Mack ignored evidence of his patients’ fan- and adopt the farfetched premise, and things can look very tasy proneness and “waking dreams” to suggest they had been different. By thus starting with the answer and working back- abducted by aliens. And Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, creator of ward to the evidence—the opposite of the ap proaches of sci- the rationalist detective Sherlock Holmes, was easily duped ence and scholarship—one can seemingly reverse the burden both by séance trickery and schoolgirls’ hoaxed fairy photos of proof and mirror the development of a viable hypothesis. (Nickell 2011, 68–72; Nickell 2007, 251–58; Nickell 1994, I call this process the Through-the-Looking-Glass Syn- 153, 175–76). drome because the individual who suffers from such a bout of As we see, many of the proponents of such ideas are quite contagion has entered a realm in which the very standards of intelligent. How ever, it seems that—just as in jujitsu when objective inquiry are effectively reversed, becoming their super- one’s large size becomes a liability once one has been thrown ficial lookalikes: pseudoscience, pseudohistory, and so on. off balance—a person’s own intelligence can work against People are drawn into this illusory world, it appears to me, him when he is under the spell of the Through-the-Look- by something other than impartial reason. Having investi- ing-Glass Syndrome: the intelligent person may be able to gated questionable claims for more than four decades, I have think up rationalizations and theoretical complexities of marveled at how certain persons have walked, been lured, or breathtaking cleverness, fooling first himself, then others. So stumbled headlong into some strange but profound belief. it is with the Shake speare-wasn’t-written-by-Shakespeare For example, time and again someone has been so attracted minions, as we shall see. to the “haunting” image on the Shroud of Turin that he will not accept it as the red-ocher (iron-oxide) pigmented work Stage Left: The Baconians of a confessed fourteenth-century artist, which has been con- For nearly two centuries after his death, Shakespeare went firmed by microchemical tests and radiocarbon dating. Wish- unquestioned as the author of the plays and poems bearing fully believing that the cloth really wrapped the body of Jesus his name. The first recorded doubter was a Reverend James in the tomb, he sees the forger’s confession as false, the iron- Wilmot who—having undertaken to write a biography of the oxide as a contaminant, and the carbon-dating as an error re- Bard but being unable to turn up a single original manuscript sulting perhaps from a burst of radiant energy that altered in Stratford—expressed his suspicions to a Quaker acquain- the carbon ratio at the moment of Christ’s miraculous resur- tance, who re ported them to his local Philo sophical Society rection (Hoare 1994; cf. Nickell 1998). in Ipswich in 1805. In 1848, Colonel Joseph C. Hart pub-

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So fanatical was Delia Bacon that she once spent a troubled night, armed with lantern and spade, at Shake speare’s grave in Stratford’s Holy Trinity Church planning to literally dig for answers.

lished a book on seafaring that also included his notions on in fact consisted of finding whatever words he wished to various other topics. Hart despised Shakespeare, whom he make up part of his ‘decipherment’ and then finding some ac cused of buying or stealing plays that he “first spiced with ob- combination of basic numbers and factor-numbers that scenity, blackguardism and impurities before they were pro- would yield the desired result. Given so many variables it is duced”; he felt the admirable portions, such as Hamlet’s solilo- possible to extract almost any message from a wordage as quies, were attributable to another (Keller 2009, 138–41). large as Shakespeare’s. ...” The first book-length assault on the Bard was launched in Nevertheless, other Baconians followed. Orville Ward 1857 by a woman named Delia Bacon. Her 675-page The Phi- Owen, a physician in Detroit, caught the bug and spent the losophy of the Plays of Shakspere Unfolded cast Shakespeare as “a remainder of his life utilizing his own supposedly improved stupid, ignorant, third-rate player” in a “dirty, doggish group of method of decipherment. One of Owen’s divined Baconian players.” Surely he could not have written the great works bear- messages urged, “Take your knife and cut all our books asun- ing his name, she concluded. Rather, Bacon (the sister of der, And set the leaves on a great firm wheel/ which rolls and Congre gational minister Leonard Bacon) be lieved the works rolls.” Inspired, Owen constructed two massive reels, turned must have been produced by a secret society of literary figures by (appropriately) a crank, which unrolled a thousand-foot with Sir Walter Raleigh (1552–1618) as head and Sir Francis canvas. Mounted in rows on this were the printed pages of Bacon (1561–1626) as guiding light. She believed, wrongly, text from Shakespeare, Bacon, and others. Owen or a mem- that she was descended from the latter. So fanatical was Delia ber of his three-woman staff operated the machine using Bacon that she once spent a troubled night, armed with lantern “key” words to extricate text dictated to a typist. In time and spade, at Shake speare’s grave in Stratford’s Holy Trinity Owen published five of his six volumes of Sir Francis Bacon’s Church planning to literally dig for answers. Believing she had Cipher Story. Still later he received communications from deciphered cryptic messages in Francis Bacon’s letters that Bacon’s ghost (Schoenbaum 1991, 411–13). pointed to certain secrets—perhaps even manuscripts—hidden Owen’s secretary, Elizabeth Wells Gallup, next launched in a hollow be neath the gravestone, she fully intended to ex- her own unique method of deciphering Bacon’s supposedly cavate but then struggled with her supposed evidence and fi- concealed messages. She in fact employed a “biliteral cipher” nally lost her nerve. She died insane at age forty-eight (Keller actually invented by Bacon. (One of the ciphers I studied as 2009, 141–42; Schoen baum 1991, 385–94). a budding cryptanalyst of about twelve, it employs two fonts Delia Bacon had set the stage, as it were, for subsequent of printing type, say, roman and italic, which we can designate “Baconians”—those who became convinced Sir Francis a and b. The text that will carry the secret text is marked off Bacon had indeed written as “Shakespeare.” Enter a Min- in five-letter units, so that the letter A can be represented by nesota crank named Ignatius T. Donnelly, who had previously aaaaa, B by aaaab, and so on [see Gaines 1956, 6–7].) “proved” that both Aztecs and Egyptians descended from a Unfortunately, Gallup’s supposed decipherments were race that inhabited the (imaginary) “lost continent” of At- subjected to detailed analysis, most thoroughly by the famous lantis. Donnelly pored over a copy of Shakespeare’s complete American code experts Colonel William and Elizabeth plays, the 1623 First Folio (see figure 1), and divined certain Fried man, with devastating results. The type of Elizabethan mathematical formulas (involving a set of “basic numbers” times bore imperfections, became battered, was often mixed and “factor numbers”) that let him “decipher” supposed mes- indiscriminately, which—coupled with the effect of rough sages from the text. When the result was gibberish, as it often paper and other factors—meant that “differences” in type was, Donnelly modified the rules, which made cryptogra- could easily be found, even where none existed (Pratt 1942, phers quick to laugh at his approach. “They pointed out,” ex- 90–91). As Shakespearean scholar Samuel Schoenbaum plains code master Fletcher Pratt (1942, 87), “that his rules (1991, 419) says of Gallup, “What she had discovered was for solution were practically all variables, and that his solution not a biliteral cipher but a biliteral Rorschach test.” Moreover,

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the revealed text bore words that were not in use until after followed by a Marlovian craze—the belief that Christopher Bacon’s death. Gallup did admit, at one point, that to distin- Marlowe (1564–1593), the greatest Elizabethan dramatist prior guish between a and b typefaces, it was necessary to use “in- to Shakespeare, penned “Shakespeare.” The fact that Marlowe tuition” (Pratt 1942, 91–92). The entire quest of the Baconi- was killed in a tavern fight before the majority of the Bard’s ans to find secret texts in Shake speare’s writings is plays had been written did not faze the Marlovians. Having reminiscent of journalist Michael Drosnin’s The Bible Code stepped through the looking glass, their chief advocate, a Broad- books (1997; 2002), which tout “predictions” of modern way press agent named Calvin Hoffman, conjured up an expla- events that were allegedly “encoded” in the Hebrew Bible nation. about three thousand years ago. (See Thomas 2003 for a re- Marlowe’s death, Hoffman imagined, was staged by killing buttal.) some foreign sailor in his stead, while Marlowe fled via France to Italy where he began to write plays before eventually return- Marlowe et al. ing to England in disguise. Everything was supposedly arranged Although there is no convincing evidence that Bacon ever wrote by his aristocratic gay lover who hired an actor, Will Shake - a single play, there were many adherents to the Bacon-as- speare, to allow his name to grace the manuscript. This imag- Shakespeare “theory.” How ever, that conviction was eventually ined scenario was, said the Times Literary Supple ment (January

Figure 1. The 1623 First Folio of Shakespeare’s complete works.

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The fact is that there is no proof (innuendo and coincidence and mystery mongering are not proof) that “Shakespeare” was written by anyone other than William Shake speare.

24, 1956), “a tissue of twaddle,” but surely the reviewer was compounding two words not in themselves names and also being too kind (Schoenbaum 1991, 445–47). descriptive of an action, we may be sure that the name is fic- Beyond Marlowe, some seventy other candidates have titious and intended to be understood as of allegorical signif- been proposed, ranging from Sir Walter Raleigh, Cardinal icance.” This is absurd and begs the question, why then was Wolsey, and Ben Jonson to various earls—of Darby, of Essex, not the hyphenated spelling used for all printed versions of of Rutland, and, of course, of Southamp ton (the latter having the plays? In fact, creative phonetic spelling was common in been Shakespeare’s patron)—and even Queen Elizabeth I Shakespeare’s time, as evidenced, for example, by such differ- (Wilson 1993, 15–20; Keller 2009, 135–36 Schoenbaum ent versions as Will, Willm, William, Willel mum, etc., and 1991, 395–404). Then there is the seventeenth Earl of Ox- Shakspere, Shack spere, Shaxpere, Shagspere, Shake spear, ford, the current favorite of the anti-Stratfordians. Shake-speare, and Shakespeare; likewise, there were eleven different versions of Christopher Marlowe’s surname (Keller The Earl of Oxford 2009, 156–57). In 1920, an English schoolmaster with the unfortunate name In 1987 a moot-court debate on the Oxford-versus- J. Thomas Looney published his “Shakespeare” Identified, set- Shakespeare controversy was held at the American Uni - ting forth the claim that the seventeenth Earl of Oxford, Ed- versity. It was presided over by three U.S. Supreme Court Jus- ward de Vere (1550–1604), was the true author of the plays tices: Harry Blackmun, William Brennan, and John Paul and poems bearing Shakespeare’s name. Intellec tually naive, Stevens. They found in favor of Shakespeare, and Justice the book unsurprisingly attracted many followers. Stevens pointedly concluded that “the Oxfordian case suffers The Loonies adopted “Oxford” as their standard bearer even from not having a single, coherent theory of the case” (qtd. though he had died before King Lear, Macbeth, Antony and in Bethell 1991, 47). Cleopatra, and several other plays were performed. They postu- late that scholars misdated Lear and Macbeth and that the other Will the Real Shakespeare… plays, having been left unfinished, were subsequently completed Or this heading could read, “Will, the real Shakespeare.” by inferior dramatists (Schoenbaum 1991, 430–34). Although the anti-Stratfordians savage Shakespeare (but Their evidence for Oxford as author is as questionable as resent any criticism of themselves or their candidate for au- their belief is impassioned. They discovered, for example, in thorship), the fact is that there is no proof (innuendo and co- a 1578 address to Oxford by fellow poet Gabriel Harvey, a incidence and mystery mongering are not proof) that tell-tale clue: Harvey says, “Thine eyes flash fire, thy will “Shakespeare” was written by anyone other than William shakes spears…” [emphasis added]—an unmistakable refer- Shake speare. And there is much evidence that he was indeed ence to the Bard! Unfortunately, this is a rogue translation of the author. the Latin, which really just says, “Thine eyes flash fire. Thy The famous individual of that name was a historical person- countenance shakes a spear” (Keller 2009, 162–64). age born at Stratford in 1564 and christened (ac cording to the One Oxfordian of the 1940s even enlisted the aid of a spir- Holy Trinity Church baptismal register) on April 26: “Guliel - itualist. The medium used “automatic writing” to link Shake- mus filius Johannes Shak spere”—that is, translating from the speare, Bacon, and Oxford, who supposedly had collaborated Latin, “William, son of John Shak spere” (Schoenbaum 1991, to produce the plays (Wilson 1993, 19–20). 7–8). While there is no record of Shake speare attending Strat- Oxfordians believe the Earl of Ox ford adopted “William ford’s gram mar school, there is no record of anyone doing so Shakespeare” as a pen name. That the hy phenated version is prior to the nineteenth century (Matus 1991, 66); old records used for about half of the quarto editions of the plays led one are frequently incomplete or missing (as I learned during my recent Oxfordian, Charles Ogborn Jr., to write in 2009, years as a certified geneaological specialist). A marriage license “When we come upon a regularly hyphenated English name was issued on November 27, 1582, to “Willelmum Shaxpere et

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Annam Whateley de Temple Graf ton”—the clerk apparently theless, Shake speare did not al ways get things right: for exam- mis-hearing the bride’s surname, which was Hath away; the ple, he gave Bohemia a seacoast and put clocks in ancient matter was resolved by a bond of the next day for “Anne Hath - Rome [Evans 1949].) wey” to wed “William Shag spere.” Subse quent records list the Oxfordians wonder at the absence of any manuscripts, let- baptism of their eldest daughter Susanna (in 1583) and twins, ters, or diaries in Shakespeare’s handwriting, but there is a Hamnet and Judith (1585) (Schoenbaum 1991, 10–12). general lack of such materials from Elizabethan and Jacobean From 1585–1592 transpired the somewhat misnamed “lost dramatists (Keller 2009, 4). They apparently placed little value years,” during which Shakespeare was known to have been in on keeping such items, since collecting literary autographs did London. In 1592 Robert Green alerted his fellow dramatists to not become a serious endeavor until the latter part of the eigh- Shakespeare as a young literary encroacher, calling him teenth century (Matus 1991, 70). ... an upstart Crow, beautified with our feathers, that with To sum up, there really was a Shakespeare, and to believe his Tiger’s heart wrapped in a Player’s hide [quoting from that someone else wrote the plays and poems bearing his Shake speare’s Henry VI1] supposes he is as well able to bom- name—that there was in fact a conspiracy to perpetrate an bast out a blank verse [un rhymed iambic pentameter] as the elaborate hoax—is to gratuitously violate the principle of best of you: and being an absolute Johannes fac totum [ Jack- Occam’s razor, the dictum that the hypothesis with the fewest of-all-trades], is in his own conceit the only Shake-scene in the country. assumptions is to be preferred. But those who have stepped through the looking glass will The pun on his name, coupled with the readily identifiable not be dissuaded. As Schoenbaum (1991, 451) notes, nothing line, represents the earliest mention of Shakespeare as an “will erase suspicions fostered over a century by amateurs who actor and playwright (Wilson 1993, 124–25). have yielded to the dark power of the anti-Stratfordian ob- Additional evidence reveals the continuing life of a very session. One thought perhaps offers a crumb of redeeming real person: comfort: the energy ab sorbed by the mania might otherwise For instance, Shakespeare is by no means without back- have gone into politics.” n ground documentation, albeit mostly of a dry-as-dust legal variety. With occasional exceptions, the christenings, mar- Note riages and deaths of the close members of his family are all 1. From part III, act I, scene iv, line 137. Shakespeare’s correct wording to be found in the still-extant registers of his home parish is “O tiger’s heart wrapt in a woman’s hide!” church, Holy Trinity, Stratford-upon-Avon. As record of his References life as a successful working actor, his name appears high in Bethell, Tom. 1991. The case for Oxford. The Atlantic Monthly October: 45– Ben Jonson’s First Folio’s cast lists of the performances of 61. some of Jonson’s plays by Shakespeare’s company. In the case Drosnin, Michael. 1997. The Bible Code. New York: Simon & Schuster. of some, but by no means all, of Shakespeare’s plays as pub- ———. 2002. The Bible Code II. New York: Viking Press. lished in his lifetime, his name is linked with them formally Evans, Bergen. 1949. Cited in Keller 2009, 48–49. both on the title page and on the surviving official register of Gaines, Helen Fouché. 1956. Cryptanalysis: A Study of Ciphers and Their So- the Stationers’ Company, the official trade union of the book- lution. New York: Dover. Hoare, Rodney. 1994. The Turin Shroud Is Genuine. London: Souvenir Press. sellers and printers of his time. London Public Record Office Keller, Frederick A. 2009. Spearing the Wild Blue Boar—Shakespeare vs. Ox- documents show him to have acted as witness in a court case, ford: The Authorship Question. New York: iUniverse, Inc. complete with his authenticated signature to this effect. Also Matus, Irvin. 1991. The case for Shakespeare. The Atlantic Monthly October: in London’s Public Record Office and elsewhere are to be 64–72. found deeds of his property dealings (with two more of his Nickell, Joe. 1987. Literary investigation: Texts, sources, and “factual” sub- structs of literature and interpretation. Doctoral dissertation, Lexington: signatures), the wills of his London fellow actors and Strat- University of Kentucky. ford friends, which include some kindly remembrances of ———. 1994. Camera Clues. Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky. him, and his own will, the latter of which bears the final three ———. 1998. Inquest on the Shroud of Turin: Latest Scientific Findings. of the six signatures generally agreed as authentically his. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books. (Wilson 1993, 9) ———. 2007. Adventures in Paranormal Investigation. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky. William Shakespeare died about April 23, 1616, and was ———. 2011. Tracking the Man-Beasts. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books. buried on April 25. In 1623 the famous First Folio of his Ogborn, Charles. 2009. Quoted in Keller 2009, 157. plays, collected by fellow actors John Heminges and Henry Pratt, Fletcher. 1994. Secret and Urgent: The Story of Codes and Ciphers. Gar- den City, New York: Blue Ribbon Books. Condell, was published (again, see figure 1), showing a body Schoenbaum, S[amuel]. 1991. Shakespeare Lives. Oxford: Clarendon Press. of work so impressive that many believe it must be the work Thomas, David E. 2003. It’s ba-a-ack! The Bible Code II (book review). SKEP- not of a commoner but an aristocrat. TICAL INQUIRER 27(2) (March/April): 59–60. Wilson, Ian. 1993. Shakespeare, The Evidence: Unlocking the Mysteries of the How did the Bard acquire the vast learning shown in his Man and His Work. New York: St. Martin’s Press. writings? Shake speare’s inherent genius would have been sup- plemented by a serious education in grammar school (where he would have learned some Latin and Greek) and later resi- dence in London, Britain’s intellectual center, where he obvi- Joe Nickell is CSI’s senior research fellow and author (or coauthor or editor) of some thirty books, including ously read omnivorously. Himself an actor, as well as a share- one in progress, The Science of Ghosts. holder in an acting company and a theater, he befriended many playwrights, poets, scholars, travelers, gentlemen, and others (Keller 2009, 12, 271)—sources of knowledge indeed. (Never-

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Paranormal Misinterpretations of Vision Phenomena We can actually see things that aren’t really there in front of our eyes. Simple activities can help us to understand the real causes of such phenomena and to reject paranormal interpretations.

MICHAEL MAUSER

re they auras or afterimages? Vitality globules or white corpuscles? Angels or phosphenes? What we believe often determines what we see and A experience. Some simple activities can help us understand vision phenomena that may be misinterpreted as evidence for the paranormal.

Auras

In a brief review on the aura, a “glowing the illusion as a series of silhouettes and skin against a dark background pro- field surrounding a human being,” Perez shows how an aura might be perceived. vides high contrast and good conditions for after-images. As the eyes and Hines (2011) mention perceptual In either case, the bands can be revealed move slightly but rapidly about (as illusions as among many possible rea- as truly uniform if you cover the borders they always do), an after-image builds sons the belief in auras persists. Dale et with your fingers. The illusion results up around the edge of the hand and al. (1978) suggest two vision phenom- from a process known as lateral inhibi- produces a light blur. ena that may be involved in a perception tion, wherein neurons associated with adjacent photoreceptors on the retina Most people are well acquainted with of an aura: border contrast effects and afterimages, so the only surprise here afterimages. can influence each other to emphasize a border. may be that our eyes are always moving When uniformly shaded fields are without our being aware of it. You can presented adjacent to one another, we With regard to afterimages, I cannot see this jitter by first staring for a minute perceive them as non-uniformly shaded say it better than Blackmore (1996, 37), at the circle where the grid lines cross in with enhanced contrast at the border. who wrote: figure 3, which will “print” the image of This visual illusion was first reported by the grid on your retina. If you then stare If you hold out your hand against a Ernst Mach (1865), and it is often pre- at the plus sign in the square, you should dark background and look at the space sented as “Mach bands” as shown in fig- just beside the skin, you will begin to notice that the afterimage jumps around ure 1 (Ratliff 1965). Figure 2 presents see a faint glow around it. ... Light as your eyes move.

Figure 1. Mach bands

Figure 2. A series of silhouettes Figure 3. Eye movement demonstration (see text for explanation)

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Vitality Globules

William Flexner informs us in the capillaries as numerous short- Introduction to Parapsychology that lived, seemingly erratic, rapidly any normal person can usually see moving dots of light with dark what are variously called prana, tails. vitality globules, or etheric glob- To see the larger blood vessels ules. By “focusing the gaze in- on the retina, close one eye and tently into the sky for a few mo- look straight ahead at a blank wall ments” (Flex ner 2004, 128) you with the other while flashing a will see that the “globule wells out beam of light across the pupil from an invisible source, appears from the periphery. This will cause and moves rapidly away, to give a spot of light to be focused on the place to more globules” (147). periphery of the retina. The spot Flexner writes that when we acts as an internal light source breathe in these globules of “raw casting shadows of the blood ves- energy” our bodies change them sels on the retina. These shadows into “personal vitality” (128), so he are not nor mally seen because the Figure 4: Shadows of parafoveal capillaries on the retina clearly regards them as an atmos- retina adjusts for any constant sen- (Horner 1834)

Under ideal viewing conditions, you can retinal capillaries that surround the fovea see dozens of these white cells moving when staring at a bright surface, particularly after physical exertion. The white at a time and recognize that they always blood cells are relatively large and must deform to fit in the capillaries, causing a trace out the same paths and move in space to open up ahead of them and the much more numerous and smaller red time with your pulse. cells to pile up behind. The red cells absorb more light, so what we see are short, bright streaks with dark tails moving in the short, convoluted paths of the capillaries. Under ideal viewing conditions, pheric phenomenon that is beneficial to sation. For other viewing techniques and you can see dozens of these white cells our health. more information, see Walker (1982). moving at a time and recognize that they We can never be sure exactly what To see the parafoveal cap illaries on always trace out the same paths and someone else is seeing, but what Flexner the retina, put a pinhole (~0.8 mm) in a move in time with your pulse. To im- describes seems a lot like the blue field business card and look at a bright, fea- prove your viewing, you can hold a piece entoptic phenomenon (also called tureless surface (or the sky) while hold- of cobalt glass or blue plastic up against Scheerer’s phenomenon or flying cor- ing the pinhole close to your eye. Rap- a blue sky. A science museum (see www. puscles). We sense light with the retina, idly move the card in small circles, and exploratorium.edu/xref/exhibits/blood_c which is at the back of the eye. Arteries, through the hole you should see a pat- ells_in_the_eye.html) or an ophthalmol- veins, and capillaries are present on top tern similar to that shown in figure 4. ogist may have a viewer (sometimes of the retina, and these plus the blood Note the capillary-free zone at the cen- called an entoptoscope), which is essen- flowing through the capillaries can be ter of vision marking the fovea, where tially just a bright, diffuse source of nar- seen under the right conditions. We see photo receptors are most tightly packed. row-band blue light. For more informa- the arteries, veins, and capillaries as net- Most people have occasionally seen tion, see Sinclair et al. (1989) and Walker works of shadows and the blood flow in the blood cells moving through these (1982).

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Angels Who knows what someone has actually seen when he or she claims to have seen an angel or a ghost? But some of the descriptions I have read sound like the person was seeing floaters or other entoptic (within the eye) phenomena. If you are really looking for and expecting to see an angel or ghost, just about any blurry thing you can’t explain will probably do. There are plenty of entoptic phenomena that look like blurry things, but I think floaters, phosphenes, and Purkinje’s blue arcs are the most likely candidates for misinterpreta- Figure 5. Seeing floaters clearly tion. Floaters are cells and tissue suspended in front of the retina. They cast distinct shadows of things on and inside movement of the eye can also result in a shadows on the retina that can be very your eye as shown in figure 5. If you phosphene at the optic nerve because the conspicuous when looking at a bright, move the foil back and forth and up and retina is apparently stretched there featureless surface. If a floater is in your down while continuing to look straight (Friedman 1941). If you do this at night, peripheral vision, you may become ahead, you will be able to gauge the rel- it can be quite noticeable, but only for aware of it moving around but will not ative distance of various things from the the first one or two attempts—and you be able to get a clear view of it because retina as well as see more of the eye’s in- can’t see it very clearly because it is fif- it will move with your eye movement. terior. Moving your head relative to a teen degrees from your center of vision You can dramatically improve the horizontal plane may also result in some where visual activity is substantially less. visibility of floaters by holding a point of the floaters moving closer to the See Walker (1981) for more informa- source of diffuse light close to your eye. fovea where the shadows can be seen tion on phosphenes. Put a small piece of aluminum foil on a more clearly. See Walker (1982) for The photoreceptors can also activate hard surface and twirl a needle point on more information. spontaneously. This is why even in the it to make a tiny hole (~0.2 mm). Cover When you press on one corner of total absence of light you don’t see ab- the hole with matte-surface cellophane your eye, you can activate the photore- solute blackness but instead a mottled tape, and hold the foil close to your eye ceptors, causing you to see a spot of light gray called “dark noise” or “equivalent while looking at a bright light source on the opposite side of the eye. This per- Poisson noise” (Elkins 2000, 241). With through it. Light from the hole will be ception of light when no light is entering a little imagination you can “see” all refracted by the cornea and lens to cast the eye is known as a phosphene. A rapid kinds of things in this noise. Purkinje’s blue arcs are my favorite entoptic phenomenon both because of their beauty and because, as Richard Even in the total absence of light you don’t Gregory (1997, 57) wrote, “Here we are seeing parts of our own brains!” There see absolute blackness but instead a is nothing paranormal about it, but people may be tempted to misinterpret it mottled gray called “dark noise” or because the phenomenon is fleeting and difficult to reproduce. To see these arcs “equivalent Poisson noise.” clearly, go into a windowless room that contains a small LED indicator light With a little imagination you can (preferably red). Close your eyes and “see” all kinds of things in this noise. turn off the lights. After about thirty seconds, open just your right eye and look at the right edge of the LED. You will momentarily see two faint but distinct blue arcs streaking a distance of

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The photoreceptors on our retinas are not perfect transducers: they respond to stimuli other than light; they are noisy (as evidenced in the dark noise mentioned earlier); there is a lag in their response time; and they become saturated, requiring time to recover. Figure 6. Purkinje’s blue arcs (Purkinje 1825)

five or ten degrees from the light toward are seeing. The photoreceptors on our Sitzungsberichte der mathematisch-naturwissen- the right (see figure 6). (Your thumb retinas are not perfect transducers: they schaftlichen Classe der kaiserlichen Akademic der Wissenschaften 52(2): 303–22. Translated in held out at arm’s length has a width of respond to stimuli other than light; they Ratliff 1965. about two degrees.) If you then look di- are noisy (as evidenced in the dark noise Perez, B.M., and T. Hines. 2011. The aura: A brief rectly at the light, you may see a faint mentioned earlier); there is a lag in their review. SkEPTIcAL INqUIRER 35(1) (January/ blue haze around it. If you look to the response time; and they become satu- February): 38–40. left side of the light, you will see a blue rated, requiring time to recover. Vision is Purkinje, J.E. 1825. Beobachtungen und Versuche zur Physiologie der Sinne etc., Neue Beiträge zur spike where the arcs were. Stable images a brain process that starts at the retina, Kenntness des Sehens in subjektiver Hinsicht, 2tes on the retina disappear quickly, but you turning discrete signals on a two-dimen- Bändchen. Berlin: Reimer. can prolong the phenomenon by shifting sional surface into the perceptions of lines, Ratliff, F. 1965. Mach Bands: Quantitative Studies your eye back and forth or by switching surfaces, shapes, and three-dimensional on Neural Networks in the Retina. San Fran - objects in an external world. This process cisco: Holden-Day, 253–71. to your left eye for the reverse view. You Sinclair, S.H., M. Azar-cavanagh, k.A. Soper, et will eventually need to turn the lights on is influenced by expectations and precon- al. 1989. Investigation of the source of the blue and repeat the process when your eye be- ceptions as many visual illusions demon- field entoptic phenomenon. Investigative Oph- comes accustomed to the dark. What you strate (see www.michaelbach.de/ot/). n thalmology & Visual Science 30(4): 668–73. Available online at www.iovs.org. are seeing is due to the action of the References Walker, J. 1981. About phosphenes: Patterns that nerves on the retina that connect the Blackmore, S.J. 1996. In Search of the Light: The appear when the eyes are closed. Scientific photoreceptors in the center of vision (the Adventures of a Parapsychologist. Amherst, New American 244(5): 142–52. fovea) to the optic nerve about fifteen de- York: Prometheus Books. ———. 1982. ‘Floaters’: Visual artifacts that re- grees away. These nerves arc around the Dale, A., D. Anderson, and L. Wyman. 1978. Per- sult from blood cells in front of the retina. Sci- ceptual aura: Not spirit but afterimage and entific American 246(4): 150–62. fovea, which is why you see arcs when you border contrast effects. Perceptual and Motor ______. 1984. How to stop a spinning object by look at the right edge of the light with Skills 47(2): 653–54. humming and perceive curious blue arcs your right eye but only a spike when you Elkins, J. 2000. How To Use Your Eyes. New York: around the light. Scientific American 250(2): Routledge. 136–48. look at the left edge. Because the eyes de- Flexner, W. 2004. Introduction to Parapsychology. velop from the brain, these nerves are New Dehli: Sarup & Sons. considered part of the brain. See Walker Friedman, B. 1941. Mechanics of optic nerve trac- (1984) for more information. tion on the retina during ocular rotation. Michael Mauser is a former Archives of Ophthalmology 25(4): 564–75. teacher and engineer. His Conclusion Gregory, Richard L. 1997. Eye and Brain—The interests in biology, Psychology of Seeing, 5th Edition. Princeton: physics, and psychology Subjective visual experiences can be very Princeton University Press. led him to develop numer- hard to evaluate. The images on our reti- Horner, W.G. 1834. On the autoptic spectrum of ous vision-related activi- nas can result from objects and processes certain vessels within the eye, as delineated in ties while a volunteer at the Arizona Science within the eye itself. If we are ignorant of shadows on the retina. Philosophical Magazine Center. He currently volunteers at the Denver 4: 262–71. Museum of Nature and Science and is work- these phenomena, we will not consider Mach, E. 1865. Über die Wirkung der räumlichen them when trying to interpret things we Vertheilung des Lichtreizes auf die Netzhaut. ing on a science activity book on the senses.

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Civilizations Lost and Found: Fabricating History Part Two: False Messages in Stone

The documentary Lost Civilizations of North America presents a distorted picture of American prehistory. The archaeological evidence presented to support notions of ancient pre-Columbian contact consists of long-discredited frauds. BRADLEY T. LEPPER, KENNETH L. FEDER, TERRY A. BARNHART, and DEBORAH A. BOLNICK

“Our histories should give only what is known to be the truth, and falsehood should always be cried down whenever it is known to exist.” —David Wyrick, accused perpetrator, but likely victim, of the Newark “Holy Stones” forgeries (1860)

As noted in Part One of this discussion (SI, September/ difficulty in determining authenticity, and also to illustrate a conflict that October 2011), the documentary The Lost Civilizations of exists between mainstream anthro- North America (produced by Steven Smoot, Rick Stout, and pologists, and those who have been termed “diffusionists.” Barry McLerran) purports to be an exploration of “the fas- There are numerous problems with cinating world of ancient North America, and why the ar- this justification for intentionally blur- tifacts and evidences of ancient civilizations have been lost ring the distinction among verifiably and largely ignored” (qtd. from the DVD’s website at ancient artifacts, objects of questionable www.lostcivilizationdvd.com/documentary.html). The an- authenticity, and objects that are de - mon strably fraudulent. First, it falsely cient civilizations that are alleged to have left their mark in suggests that there is a legitimate sci- pre-Columbian North America include, at a minimum, entific controversy over the interpretation of these artifacts. Fram ing this al- Egyptians, Hebrews, and Celts. The What Is the Evidence for Lost leged controversy in this way is very documentary acknowledges that “main- Civilizations in North America? similar to creationists attempting to stream archaeologists” do not accept the Interspersed throughout Lost Civiliza - characterize their argument with evo- claim that any of these civilizations had tions of North America are images of a lutionary biologists. As with that more contact with the indigenous North bewildering variety of artifacts, some of familiar canard, there is no real scien- American cultures, yet it features the which are recognized icons of Amer - tific controversy. We are not aware of views of several “diffusionists,” none of ican archaeology while others are less any contemporary anthropologist who whom appear to be archaeologists familiar and even startlingly odd. The thinks there is scientific validity to the (“mainstream” or otherwise). These dif- narrator explains these puzzling juxta- infamous artifacts featured in this doc- fusionists argue that a wealth of arti- positions as follows: umentary, such as the Michigan Relics facts appears to support the “lost civi- Many artifacts are shown throughout (Halsey 2004), the Grave Creek Stone lization” claim, and they purport to this film. Some artifacts are accepted (Lepper 2008), the Bat Creek Stone explain why mainstream archaeologists as authentic by the scientific commu- (Mainfort and Kwas 2004), and the have so assiduously ignored or sup- nity today, and some are not. In many cases authentic artifacts may be Newark “Holy Stones” (Lepper and pressed this evidence for numerous shown alongside controversial ones. Gill 2000) (figure 1). episodes of intercontinental intercourse. This is done in part to underscore the The effect of presenting these bogus

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objects in juxtaposition with ancient masterpieces, such as the Adena effigy pipe (figure 2), also shown in the documentary, is to validate infamous frauds at the ex pense of the authentic artifacts. It ap pears deliberately obfuscatory and is demeaning to the achievements of the ancient Native American artisans. Second, we believe that the documentary’s justification for mixing authentic with “controversial” artifacts wildly exag- gerates the “difficulty in determining authenticity.” In any archaeological analysis, the key to determining the authenticity of a putative ancient artifact is to estab- lish its context. For virtually none of the disputed artifacts shown in the documentary is there any reliable information about its archaeological context. To begin with, none of the artifacts shown, nor any similar pieces that might lend support to the authenticity of the objects highlighted in the video, has been recovered in any modern archaeological excavation using the tools and techniques of late twentieth-century archaeology. This is a crucial point: by and large, artifacts with putative ancient Old World writing were found in New World sites during only a rather narrow window of time (primarily from the mid-nineteenth into the early twentieth century), a period during which there was enormous controversy concerning the origins of the mound builders of the American Midwest and Southeast. In the far more extensive archaeological fieldwork accomplished between 1930 and the present, no such artifacts have ever been discovered by professional archaeologists. We can think of no legitimate artifact category in which archaeologists ceased finding examples of an artifact type once the field became professionalized with applied scientific methodology. In many cases, moreover, information on the historical context of these inscribed objects has demonstrated that they are frauds or forgeries. The video’s narrator asserts, for example, that the Bat Creek Stone was “found using mod- Figure 1. Ostensibly discovered in an ancient mound located in West Virginia, the Grave Creek Stone’s ern methods within the original sur- inscription (top) reflects an impossible mixture of a number of Old World written languages (Grave roundings” (emphasis added) (figure 3). Creek Mound Museum). The artifact on the bottom is one of hundreds of “Michigan Relics” produced Donald Yates, a featured diffusionist in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries that were supposed to prove the presence of who holds a doctorate in classical stud- all manner of Old World people in the New World in antiquity (courtesy of Thom Bell). ies, goes on to assert that naysayers can’t dismiss this artifact because it was re-

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covered in an “official excavation by the Emmert excavated the stone in 1889, low excavation at the monumental Smithsonian Institution,” as if that his methods could hardly be considered Newark Earthworks. He found the alone should be considered sufficient “modern” in any meaningful sense. Fi- “Decalogue Stone” (figure 4), even more evidence—by professional archaeolo- nally, since the archaeologists Robert spectacular and apparently definitive gists or anyone else, for that matter— Mainfort and Mary Kwas discovered proof of his belief that ancient Israelites for its acceptance as genuine. the source used by the forgers of the Bat had built the ancient mounds, just five It certainly is true that John Emmert, Creek inscription, conclusively demon- months later at a different site a few the man who claimed to have found the strating it to be a fraud (Mainfort and miles south of Newark (Lepper and Gill Bat Creek Stone, was in the employ of Kwas 2004), consideration of Emmert’s 2000). the Smithsonian Institution at the time qualifications is moot. It is clear now The Reservoir Stone Mound, also of its discovery. During this period, the that Emmert either perpetrated the known as the Jacksontown Stone Mound, Smithsonian hired an eclectic assort- fraud himself or failed to detect the im- was the largest aboriginal stone structure ment of individuals with varying levels posture because of his dodgy methods. in North America north of Mexico. It of expertise to conduct local operations was forty feet in height and 180 feet in The Newark Holy Stones on the Institution’s behalf. Emmert ap- diameter. First described in 1822 in a pears to have been one of the lesser The artifacts given the most screen time call to preserve the magnificent edifice, qualified excavators, and he was later in the documentary are the so-called it was, nevertheless, largely destroyed fired because of questions about the Newark “Holy Stones.” In fact, the nar- between 1831 and 1832 when the quality of his work (Mainfort and Kwas rator refers to the controversy surround- stones were used in the construction of 1991, 12). Even discounting the obvious ing the interpretation of these artifacts as an extensive series of dikes framing the questions about his competence, since a case study that “demonstrates the divi- reservoir on the Licking summit of the sion between some diffusionists and Ohio and Erie Canal. Estimates vary, most mainstream archaeologists.” If the but between 10,000 and 15,000 wagon producers of the documentary sincerely loads of stone are said to have been believe this statement, then it is difficult hauled away for this purpose. When the to understand why they feature only the bulk of the stones had been removed, a diffusionist side of the argument. What portion of a circular arrangement of ten makes this one-sided presentation par- to twenty eight-foot-tall earthen mounds ticularly perplexing is that one of the sci- was revealed. entists interviewed (one of the authors of In the video, Ancient American mag- this article) has written extensively on the azine’s publisher Wayne May narrates Newark “Holy Stones” and therefore the story of Wyrick’s discovery of the could have ably represented the “main- Decalogue Stone: stream” view (Lepper 1999; Lepper and Gill 2000). Note that the narrator’s use They found one major earth structure of the qualifier in his phase “most main- in the center surrounded by twelve stream archaeologists” leaves the listener small burials. David Wyrick went straight for the middle one with nine with the false impression that there other gentlemen and they began to might be some “mainstream archaeolo- dig that mound down and they un- gists” out there who accept the Newark covered it—and when they did they “Holy Stones” as authentic. We are aware found a wooden coffin made out of of none who have gone on record in sup- oak and opening up that coffin in there was a large skeleton of a man, port of these egregious, if historically in- but also in this coffin was a little box teresting, forgeries. no more than maybe about eight or The Newark “Holy Stones” consist ten inches in size and it was ce- of five separate artifacts, at least two of mented shut. Wyrick and the men, which even many diffusionists ac - while they were all there together, knowledge to be fraudulent (Lepper they pried this box apart and in it was a black stone. They opened this box 1991). The documentary focuses on the and here was this unusual artifact. second of the artifacts to be reported although both of the two surviving “Holy This account of the basic facts of the Stones” are featured in various video discovery is riddled with errors. Some Figure 2. The Adena effigy pipe is a remarkably clips. may seem trivial, but they are important decorated tubular smoking pipe made from David Wyrick, a Licking County, to document because they demonstrate Ohio pipestone. It was found in the Adena Ohio, surveyor and avocational archae- a pattern of carelessness with regard to Mound in Chillicothe, Ohio, which gave its name to the Adena culture, circa between 800 ologist, made his first sensational discov- facts that is depressingly typical of the BCE and 100 CE. (Ohio Historical Society) ery, the so-called “Keystone,” in a shal- diffusionist literature.

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1. The Decalogue Stone was not found sic methods. The only artifacts associ- in the central mound but in one of the ated with the human remains were ten ten to twenty mounds arranged in a ring copper bracelets. The Decalogue Stone at the base of the stone mound. The was found in clay well below the original exact total of these small mounds was depth of the wooden burial platform. never recorded, probably because the May then recounts Wyrick’s efforts entirety of the stones have never been to interpret the Decalogue Stone: removed, leaving some still buried beneath the remnants of the mound. They took it to some scholars—iden- May’s reference to “twelve” leaves the tified that it was probably some type of Hebrew. They took it to some rab- unwarranted impression of an exact bis living in the area and looking at it, count. The fact that May settled so pre- they said yes they could read it and it cisely on the number twelve may have was a complete rendition of the Ten something to do with the mystical sig- Commandments. They called it block nificance of that number in the Judeo- Hebrew. And so then naysayers started picking on Wyrick. He was ac- Christian tradition (twelve tribes of Is- cused of sticking this stone in front of rael, twelve disciples, etc.). these nine men somehow and being able to hide it and conceal it. 2. Wyrick did not undertake his investi- And it wasn’t until sometime in gation with nine other men but with five. the 1900s, lo and behold, in Israel they find, guess what, they found Sources allow us to identify at least block Hebrew. The block-style of He- four of them: Jacob Wyrick, John Nicol, brew was given a name by the ex- Figure 3. The Bat Creek Stone is one of a John Haynes, and John Larett. Nicol’s perts—monumental Hebrew, be cause number of ancient artifacts found in North America bearing inscriptions in Old presence is significant, because he was of the way it was written. Long after Wyrick. After! World scripts. All such artifacts have been directly implicated in the blatant hoax shown to be fraudulent. of two of the subsequent “Holy Stones” In other words, May is claiming that (Lepper 1991). the version of Hebrew found on the Decalogue Stone could not have been 3. Wyrick’s team did not discover the fraudulently produced in 1860 because wooden “coffin.” The “coffin,” originally this form of writing was not known described as a “trough,” was found in 1853 until years after the discovery of the by William Parr (Wyrick 1860). Parr cut stone. This is all nonsense. In fact, off a piece of the wooden trough to retain, Wyrick took the Decalogue Stone di- but he left the rest in the hole to be re- rectly to the local Episcopal Minister, buried. Wyrick and a group of men re- John McCarty, who published a com- turned to the site in August of 1860 to re- prehensively annotated translation of excavate the mound in order to recover the inscription within a week of its dis- the wooden “sarcophagus.” The excava- covery (McCarty 1860). tion that resulted in the recovery of the There were rabbis who could, in deed, Decalogue Stone was Wyrick’s second ex- read the inscription. Abraham Geiger, a pedition to the site and at least the third highly respected German rabbi and time the mound had been dug into. scholar of Hebrew, concluded in the July 27, 1860, New York Times that the Deca- 4. Neither Wyrick nor Parr recovered logue Stone inscription was “the the skeleton of a “large man,” and the bungling work of an unskilled stone Decalogue Stone was not found in the mason and the strangeness of some let- coffin but rather several inches beneath ters as well as the many mistakes and it. Wyrick (1860) reported that Parr transpositions was his fault. The letters found human bones, but they amounted are not antique. This is not a relic of to only “bits of skull,” a few teeth, and hoary antiquity” (qtd. in Alrutz 1980, 41). Figure 4. About 6.8 inches in length and some hair. There would have been no Geiger’s assessment has been con- made from black limestone, the Deca- way to reliably identify either the sex or firmed and elaborated by our colleague logue Stone is named for the fact that it is the size of the person represented by Jeff Gill, who noted specific errors in the inscribed with the Ten Commandments in an ancient-looking form of Hebrew. It was these meager human re mains, and the inscription that could have occurred discovered in 1860 during excavations in bones are not known to be curated in only if someone were working from a the remains of the largest stone mound in any museum collection where they conventional nineteenth-century type- North America. (Johnson-Humrickhouse could be re-studied using modern foren- face Hebrew text and then converting Museum)

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each letter into the corresponding an- one of whom would have had ample slavement of African people and the tique-looking character of the Deca- opportunity to plant the artifact within forced removal of Native Americans logue alphabet. Doing so would result the excavation before the day arranged from their homelands. Ironically, these in a recurring pattern of error, which for the second expedition. Nicol’s sub- ideas would have provided some sup- confirms the modern source for the in- sequent involvement in a similar proven port and nuance for a central theme of scription (Lepper and Gill 2000, 20). hoax casts considerable suspicion in his the Lost Civilizations of North America Frank Moore Cross, Harvard Univer- direction. documentary. sity professor of Near Eastern lan- May’s claims about the significance guages and one of the foremost con- of block Hebrew, also called monumen- How Did Important Evidence of a Lost temporary authorities on ancient tal Hebrew, are specious and unin- Civilization Come to Be ‘Lost’? Hebrew, fully corroborated Gill’s con- formed. “Block Hebrew” is simply what Lost Civilizations of North America ad - clusions, writing that it was clear that palaeographers and epigraphers call vances the unsupportable proposition “the modern forms of the Hebrew Class ical Hebrew orthography from the that the epigraphic evidence supporting character[s] . . . stand ultimately be- Second Temple–era down to the present, diffusionist claims was not simply dis- hind” the Decalogue Stone inscription and there is no coherent correspondence carded after a thorough review by fair- (Cross 1991). Cross offered his opinion between any ancient epigraphic Hebrew minded scholars, but that it was actually that the Decalogue Stone was a and the Decalogue alphabet. accepted and deliberately suppressed by “grotesque” forgery that could not be Finally, by ignoring the historical official historians because “the idea that taken seriously. context in which the Newark “Holy ancient inhabitants knew of and used May’s peremptory dismissal of the Stones” appeared, May and other diffu- Middle Eastern Hebrew symbols un - idea that Wyrick might have been able sionists lose the opportunity to under- der mined the notion that Native Amer - somehow to bury the fraudulent Deca- stand the true nature of the forgeries. icans were isolated savages.” logue Stone in front of the “nine” wit- The Newark “Holy Stones” represented The claim that scholars have dis- nesses is completely unwarranted, since an attempt to encompass the prehistory missed or even destroyed data to sup- the mound in question had been dug of the New World within the biblical port racist interpretations of America’s into on at least two previous occasions. history of the Old World, thereby un- past are made explicitly by Wayne May Moreover, Wyrick’s plan to continue his dermining the dangerous doctrine of in the documentary. His argument rests investigation of the mound was known polygenesis, which sought to provide a on the use of a selectively edited quo- by at least five other individuals, any scientific justification for both the en- tation by John Wesley Powell, who served as the director of the Smithson- ian Institution’s Bureau of American Eth nology and the U.S. Geological Survey: “Hence, it will be seen that it is illegitimate to use any pictographic matter of a date anterior to the discovery of the continent by Columbus for historic purposes.” This quote appears on the screen just as we show it here, ending with a period as if this were the complete thought expressed by Powell. From this it is asserted that scientists knew about Native American writing and conspired to suppress the truth about such writing and its connection to Old World alphabets by forbidding the scientific use of these “pictographs.” This is, of course, patently false, and when his statement is read in its full context it is clear that this was not what Powell meant. The quoted phrase does not end in a period as shown in the documentary. Instead, a semi-colon Figure 5. Petroglyph panels, like this spectacular example called Newspaper Rock (in Utah), are separates the first part of the sentence splendid works of art. While pointing out that petroglyphs and pictographs could not be identified from the rest of Powell’s thought. Pow- as a formal written language, John Wesley Powell nevertheless explicitly recognized their significance for the stories they told of the lives of Native Americans. (K. Feder) ell’s entire statement is repeated here

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with the part excised in the documen- is one of the more egregious of several pre-Columbian Norse presence but on tary in italics: non sequiturs present in the documen- the interpretation of historical docu- Hence, it will be seen that it is ille- tary. Powell’s purpose was to unite ments—specifically, two Norse sagas gitimate to use any pictographic American archaeology and ethnology in (Eric the Red’s Saga and the Green - matter of a date anterior to the dis- the study of the mounds, not to suppress lander’s Saga), both of which had been covery of the continent by Columbus evidence. That is not to suggest that he committed to paper fully two centuries for historic purposes; but it has a le- did not have predispositions, opinions, after the events discussed were sup- gitimate use of profound interest, as these pictographs exhibit the beginning and biases. Who does not? Yet Powell posed to have taken place. of written language and the beginning did as much as anyone at the close of the Archaeologists, with a focus on ma- of pictorial art, yet undifferentiated; nineteenth century to make American terial evidence, tend to subscribe to es- and if the scholars of America will collect archaeology and ethnology more exact- sayist Ambrose Bierce’s definition of and study the vast body of material ing sciences. His critical comments on written history: “An account mostly false, scattered everywhere—over the valleys and on the mountain sides—from it can limitations attending the use of certain of events, mostly unimportant, which are be written one of the most interesting kinds of anthropological data still bear brought about by rulers, mostly knaves, chapters in the early history of man kind. reading today. and soldiers, mostly fools” (Bierce [1911] (Powell 1881, 75) 2003). Essentially, material remains—the Why Are Archaeologists Skeptical about things people made, used, and then either In other words, while Powell felt it Old World Visitors to the New World? “illegitimate” to interpret pictographs lost or discarded—represent the gold (figure 5) directly as a form of written This brings us to a subject touched on standard in archaeological analysis. So, history, he nevertheless felt they were of only briefly in the documentary: the while the two aforementioned sagas enormous importance and should be Norse settlement of North America claimed that lands to the west of the collected and analyzed precisely be- circa 1000 CE. The clear implication in Norse settlements in Greenland had cause they represent the beginning of a the documentary is that since it can be been discovered, explored, and briefly written language (exactly what the doc- demonstrated that the Norse were here settled, most in the archaeological com- umentary claims Powell and others one thousand years ago, it is also possi- munity were skeptical of taking the sagas were attempting to hide) and a history ble that Middle Easterners were in the literally without material evidence as could be derived by those who studied New World two thousand years ago. confirmation. them. Powell was not attempting to In fact, before the 1960s, archaeolo- This all changed when, in the early suppress archaeological evidence but gists were generally skeptical about 1960s, artifacts and even structures un- simply trying to subordinate theory to claims of a pre-Columbian Norse dis- questionably of Norse origin were the collection of data. covery and settlement of the New found by archaeologists working in Clearly, Powell got it wrong on some World primarily because these claims New foundland at the site of L’anse aux issues. For example, while he correctly were based not on material remains Meadows. Items such as a ring-headed noted that the “pictographs” produced by found in North America reflecting a bronze pin, a soapstone spindle whorl, the civilizations of Meso america were more “conventional” than those seen in North America, he incorrectly surmised that theirs wasn’t a true system of writing. This error, however, does not warrant the implication made in the documentary that his goal was to suppress Powell’s purpose was to unite American any evidence showing that the native archaeology and ethnology in the people of North America were capable of developing civilization. Exactly the study of the mounds, not to suppress opposite is true. As a matter of fact, evidence. That is not to suggest that Powell worked to dispel the myth of a mound-building people distinct from he did not have predispositions, Native Americans, a conclusion he based not on armchair theorizing but on opinions, and biases. Who does not?? masses of data from extensive Amer ican ethnological and archaeological fieldwork. It is incredible that anyone would suggest, as the producers of Lost Civ - iliza tions clearly do, that Powell “robbed” Native Americans of their history. This

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iron boat rivets, and the remnants of Finally, we wish to make one addi- Powell, John Wesley. 1881. On limitations to the turf houses were excavated, all in the tional point. It is not surprising that use of some anthropologic data. In First An- nual Report of the Bureau of Ethnology, Smith- clear context of the remains of an entire when individuals in the nineteenth cen- sonian Institution 1879–80 (Washing ton, DC: ancient settlement (Ingstad and Ing stad tury, for whatever reason, wished to con- Government Printing Office), 73–86. 2000). These material remains looked vince their contemporaries that the Sutherland, P.D. 2000. The Norse and Native North Americans. In Vikings: The North At- nothing like any that had been found at mounds had been constructed by Middle lantic Saga, eds. W.W. Fitzhugh and E.I. native sites but matched, in detail, ob- Easterners, the most obvious and, to be Ward (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Insti - tution Press), 238–47. jects found in known tenth- and frank, easiest way to attempt this was to Wyrick, David. 1860. The recent mound ex - eleventh-century Norse sites in Green- manufacture fake artifacts, like the humations. Saturday Evening Post (Sep tem - land, Iceland, and Scandinavia. Radio- Newark “Holy Stones,” with inscriptions ber 8): 6. carbon dates proved that the New- on them. It would have been far more dif- foundland village had been occupied ficult (in reality, virtually impossible) to before 1000 CE, placing it in time concoct entire sites with trash pits, house Bradley T. Lepper is the roughly contemporaneous with the remains, and burials—all reflecting the curator of archaeology events described in the sagas. Subse - morphology, artifact types, skeletons, and for the Ohio Historical So- quent research throughout northeastern burial practices appropriate for and diag- ciety in Columbus, Ohio. Canada has revealed additional mate- nostic of Hebrews dating to the first cen- rial evidence of a Norse presence there tury. Let’s not be too hard on the fabrica- about one thousand years ago (Suther- tors of these frauds, hoaxes, and forgeries; land 2000). As a result, archaeologists they did the best they could—and they’re now fully accept that the Norse came still fooling some people even today. Kenneth L. Feder is pro- to the New World, explored, and, in One additional category of evidence fessor of anthropology at Central Connecticut some cases, settled there five centuries discussed in Lost Civilizations will be State University. He is a before Columbus. ex amined in the third article in this se- fellow of the Committee The Norse example is an instructive ries: genetic data used to trace the ori- for Skeptical Inquiry and lesson in assessing the underlying claim gins of the Native Americans in general a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER con- made by the Lost Civilizations docu- and the mound builders in particular. n sulting editor. mentary. It is, unfortunately, a lesson lost. If interlopers from the Middle East References arrived in North America two thousand Alrutz, Robert W. 1980. The Newark Holy Stones: The history of an archaeological years ago, one would expect there to be tragedy. Journal of the Scientific Laboratories, Terry A. Barnhart is pro- abundant material evidence of their Denison University 57: 1–57. fessor of history at East- presence. If a handful of Norse explorers Bierce, A. [1911] 2003. The Devil’s Dictionary. ern Illinois University in New York: Bloomsbury. and settlers left behind recognizable el- Cross, Frank Moorel. 1991. Personal correspon- Charleston, Illinois. ements of their material culture scat- dence to Lepper (September 15). tered across Canada, certainly a large Halsey, John H. 2004. Forgeries, fakes and frauds. Michigan History (May/June): 20–27. contingent of Hebrews moving into Ingstad, H., and A.S. Ingstad. 2000. The Viking Ohio and building the literally thou- Discovery of America: The Excavation of a sands of mound sites found there would Norse Settlement in L’Anse aux Meadows, New - Deborah A. Bolnick is as- foundland. St. John’s, Newfoundland: Break- have, just like the Canadian Norse, left sistant professor of an- water Books. thropology at the Univer- behind villages littered with material Lepper, Bradley T. 1991. ‘Holy Stones’ of Newark, sity of Texas at Austin. objects diagnostic of their culture and Ohio, not so holy after all. SKEPTICAL IN- QUIRER 15(2): 117–19. easily distinguishable from that of the ———. 1999. Newark’s ‘Holy Stones’: The res- native people already there. Their mate- urrection of a controversy. In Newark ‘Holy rial culture would be found abundantly Stones’: Context for Controversy, ed. P. Malenke (Coshocton, Ohio: Johnson-Humrickhouse Disclaimer virtually anywhere archaeologists—or, Museum), 15–21. for that matter, anyone else—dig. They ———. 2008. Great find in West Virginia noth- We are well aware that a claim underlying the Lost Civilizations documentary—that the certainly would have left behind more ing more than a fraud. Columbus Dispatch (November 11): B7. mound-building people of the Amer ican Mid- than a handful of inscribed tablets. But Lepper, Bradley T., and Jeffrey B. Gill. 2000. The west were migrants from the Middle East there is no such evidence for the pres- Newark Holy Stones. Timeline 17(3): 16–25. 2,000 years ago—may be in formed by religious doctrine. It is our position in this paper, how- ence of Hebrews or any other Old Mainfort, Robert C., and Mary L. Kwas. 1991. The Bat Creek Stone: Judeans in Tennessee? ever, that whatever inspires this claim is not World people in pre-Columbian Ohio. Tennessee Anthropologist 16: 1–19. nearly as important as the fact that it is plainly In this case we are confident in turning ———. 2004. The Bat Creek Stone revisited: wrong. As such, we will leave it to others to assess the role played, if any, by religion in shap- the old cliché on its head: here, at least, A fraud exposed. American Antiquity 69: 761–69. McCarty, John W. 1860. Philology of Holy ing Lost Civilizations and focus instead on sci- the absence of evidence is, indeed, evi- Stone No. 2. Cincinnati Daily Commercial entific evidence relevant to that claim. dence of absence. (Novem ber 7).

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Disputing ‘Seven Deadly Medical Hypotheses’

The article “Seven Deadly Medical Hypotheses” by Reynold Spector, MD, in our March/April 2011 issue prompted considerable comment and controversy within the skeptical community. Several physician-skeptics wrote critical blog posts, and others let us know they were uncomfortable with much of what Spector had written and the certainty with which he expressed his conclusions. We invited four of the critics to submit short letters for this section. Reynold Spector then responds. —EDITOR

DAVID H. GORSKI hypothesis at all but rather two opinions, Most hypotheses fail and are forgotten, the second of which is a straw man and even for those that succeed, the me- tacked on to allow Spector to gleefully dian time between first publication of a here’s an old recurring Saturday attack both opinions as one: “Either the discovery or hypothesis and its validation TNight Livesketch in which a Scots- investigator does not need a specific hy- in large randomized clinical trials ranges man bellows, “If it’s not Scottish, it’s pothesis and/or can use an inadequate from fourteen to forty-four years (Con- crap!” As I read Reynold Spector’s method to test the hypothesis.” topoulos-Ionnidis et al. 2008). Com- “Seven Deadly Medical Hypotheses” Spector cites an editorial as support pared to this, genome-wide association (Spector 2010), I couldn’t shake the for the existence of this DMH (Glass studies (GWAS) have only been in exis- image of him in a kilt roaring, “If and Hall 2008). However, although the tence for a relatively short time. Ironically, it’s not a randomized, double-blind authors of the cited editorial did make Spector argues that GWAS should be re- clinical trial based on the hypothetical/ the provocative argument that in the age placed by “direct sequencing of the por- in ductive method, it’sdeadly crap!” Un- of genomic medicine specific hypotheses tions of the genome of interest, compar- fortunately, Spector fails to demon- might not always be necessary anymore ing patients with proper control subjects.” strate convincingly why most of his and that instead science can focus on an- That is exactly what is happening now seven hypotheses even merit the label swerable questions, nowhere do they ad- (Berger et al. 2011) as next generation “deadly.” Sadly, Spector’s overwrought vocate using “inadequate methods” to sequencing (NGS) techniques drive the application of the word deadly to hy - test hypotheses or answer questions. cost of genome sequencing low enough potheses that are not even, by Spector’s That is Spector’s opinion, and the straw to make such studies feasible. I also note definition, “deadly” torpedoes what man that gives him the opening to at- that many of the assumptions behind might have been a provocative exercise tack “hypothesis-less” studies. Yet hy- GWAS that Spector dismisses are also in skepticism. What is left are weak or pothesis-generating studies are very im- assumptions behind—you guessed it!— erroneous conclusions based on dubi- portant to the process of discovery, next generation sequencing experiments ous arguments. because they are how we develop new of the sort that Spector apparently ap - Because there are so many question- lines of investigation that might one day proves of. Right now, the National Insti - able arguments in Spector’s article, I will come to fruition as useful treatments tutes of Health is funding a huge initia- be forced to “cherry pick” a couple. More that can pass FDA muster, standards de- tive, The Cancer Genome Atlas complete discussions of other examples signed for a very late point in the discov- (TCGA, see http://cancergenome.nih. can be found elsewhere (Gor ski 2011a). ery process. gov), in which dozens of cancer genomes His first Deadly Medi cal Hypothesis It’s a long and winding road from hy- are being se quenced—without hypothe- (DMH) is as good an ex ample as any. pothesis generation to hypothesis testing ses!—generating numerous prom ising Unfortunately, DMH #1 is not even a to treatment to treatment validation. hypotheses to test, the results of which

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might one day be true personalized med- David H. Gorski, MD, PhD, FACS ample of his reasoning and his ignoring icine (which, by the way, was another of Managing Editor, Science-Based Medicine the state of medical knowledge. The Spector’s misguided not-so-deadly hy- Leader, Breast Cancer Multidisciplinary Team benefits and risks of HRT were dis- potheses). Co-Leader, Breast Cancer Biology Program, Bar- cussed at length with patients and on Speaking of cancer, the most offen- bara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute rounds in the 1980s when I was a med- sive DMH is the last one, namely that Associate Professor of Surgery, icine resident. Are the benefits of HRT “from a public health perspective, can- Wayne State University School of Medicine greater than the potential risk of cancer cer chemotherapy (chemo) has been a from estrogen? As noted at the time in References major medical advance.” Note how assessing HRT risks: Berger, M.F., M.S. Lawrence, F. Demichelis, et al. Spector is careful to insert the phrase 2011. The genomic complexity of primary Hip fractures, Colles’ fractures, and “from a public health perspective.” human prostate cancer. Nature 470: 214–20. coronary heart disease, and breast This, too, is a straw man, as no one ar- Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D.G., G.A. Alexiou, and endometrial cancers are impor- T.C. Gouvias, et al. 2008. Life cycle of trans- tant conditions in postmenopausal gues that chemotherapy is a major pub- lational research for medical interventions. women that might be influenced by lic health advance; rather it is an ad- Science 321: 1298–99. the use of hormone replacement vance in the treatment of individual Crislip, M. 2011. Deadly indeed (blog entry). Sci- therapy. ... A 50-year-old white ence-Based Medicine (February 25). Avail able woman has a 16% risk of suffering a patients with certain kinds of cancer online at www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p hip fracture, a 15% risk of suffering that respond to chemotherapy. I’ve dis- =11155. a Colles’ fracture, and a 32% risk of cussed at length the slanted perspective Glass, D.J., and N. Hall. 2008. A brief history of the hypothesis. Cell 134: 378–81. suffering a vertebral fracture during inherent in this DMH, including its Gorski, D.H. 2011a. Skepticism versus nihilism her remaining lifetime. These risks misleading characterization of chemo - about cancer and science-based medicine exceed her risk of developing breast therapy (Gorski 2011a) and why we (blog entry). Science-Based Medicine (Febru- or endometrial cancer. She has a 31% ary 28). Available online at www.science- risk of dying of coronary heart dis- “haven’t won the war on cancer yet” basedmedicine.org/?p=11185. ease, which is about 10 times greater (Gorski 2011b). If Spector had simply ———. 2011b. Why haven’t we cured cancer yet? than her risk of dying of hip fractures written that chemotherapy, while capa- (blog entry). Science-Based Medicine (Febru - or breast cancer. These lifetime risks ary 14). Available online at www.science- ble of curing many hematologic malig- provide a useful description of the basedmedicine.org/?p=10761. comparative risks of conditions that nancies and a handful of solid malig- Spector, R. 2011. Seven deadly medical hypothe- might be influenced by postmen - nancies (such as testicular and anal ses. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 35(2): 40–48. Venook, A. 2005. Critical evaluation of current opausal hormone therapy. (Cum mings cancer), does a poor job on its own of treatments in metastatic colorectal cancer. The et al. 1989) prolonging life in patients with inoper- Oncologist 10(4): 250–61. And the risk for cancer was uncer- able solid malignancies, I would have Wadman, M. 2011. Fifty genome sequences reveal breast cancer’s complexity. Nature (on line tain, as discussed in a 1989 New Eng - had little argument with him. Appar - April 2). doi:10.1038/news.2011.203. land Journal of Medicine editorial: “Evi- ently such a universally accepted con- dence that estrogen increases the risk of clusion wasn’t provocative enough, MARK CRISLIP breast cancer has been surprisingly diffi- however, so he declared chemotherapy cult to obtain” (Barrett-Connor 1989). In an utter failure—from a public health he article “Seven Deadly Medical the 1980s the risks of HRT were uncer- perspective, of course!—ignoring can- THypotheses” has fundamental flaws. tain and the benefits appeared consider- cers for which chemotherapy improves The argument, as I understand it, is that able. I spent significant time convincing disease-free and overall survival and medical researchers fail to use the hypo- my mother, based on the information of quality of life even when they are ad- thetical/deductive approach to decide the time, to take her Premarin. vanced (Venook 2005) and the useful- upon research agendas and therefore At no time does Reynold Spector ness of chemotherapy in adjuvant and waste a “vast quantity of re source to dis- describe, based upon the information neoadjuvant settings. prove them.” we had at the time, why evaluation of No doubt Spector thought he was The argument as presented is circu- HRT, or the other deadly hypotheses, being provocatively “skeptical.” Unfor - lar. The author uses information from should not have been pursued. It is the tunately, most of his DMHs are neither completed studies to prove the studies data gathered from the present he uses deadly nor, truth be told, hypotheses. At should not have been done in the first to discredit the past. If he had used the worst, they are the sorts of dead ends place. He fails to consider the state of hypothetical/deductive methods based that science eventually corrects, which knowledge at the time the studies were on information known at the time, or is how science works. Appar ently, Spec- done and the cumulative nature of better, information from today, to pre- tor doesn’t have the patience to deal medical knowledge. dict what was and what will not be with the messiness of science-based The author’s criticism of Hormone worth pursuing, it would be more im- medicine. Replacement Therapy (HRT) is an ex- pressive. Hindsight is always 20:20.

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Spector makes similar arguments for Susan M. Rubin. 1989. Lifetime risks of hip, Of course, scientists and other skep- his other six deadly hypotheses. Well, one Colles’, or vertebral fracture and coronary tics can and do disagree with one an- heart disease among white postmenopausal deadly hypothesis, five re jected hypothe- women. Archives of Internal Medicine 149 other when it comes to interpreting ses, and one opinion. The last hypothesis, (11): 2445–48. data. Our primary objection to Spec - “cancer chemo therapy (chemo) has been Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth. 1989. Postmeno pausal tor’s discussion of HRT is not his con- estrogen replacement and breast cancer. New a major medical advance,” which Spector England Journal of Medi cine 321(August 3): clusion but his tone of certainty, his de clared false, is not a hypothesis gener- 319–20. oversimplification of an enormous body ated by researchers but by the author’s of research, and his unwillingness to after-the-fact opinion, and he fails to rec- Mark Crislip, MD question received wisdom from the ognize the benefits of failure. Editor, Science- Based Medicine WHI. Even some investigators who (www.sciencebasedmedicine.org) The author states “when one dispas- share his belief that the relative risks of sionately weighs the minimal prolonga- HRT warrant concern acknowledge tion of ‘good’ [the quotes around “good” AVRUM Z. BLUMING and that the absolute risks from this treat- demonstrating there is nothing dispas- CAROL TAVRIS ment are small. In one worst-case sionate in the author’s analysis] life in analysis, researchers calculated that a patients with metastatic cancer . . . ver- n the May/June 2010 issue of the fifty-year-old woman taking estrogen sus the very distressing side effects of ISKEPTICAL INQUIRER, we published and progestin for ten years has a 96 per- chemotherapy with ‘targeted’ chemo- “The Alarms of Hormone Replace ment cent chance of remaining free of breast therapy drugs, the case is close.” Therapy: Are They Supported by the cancer versus 98 percent if she does not If it had been 1990, Spector could Data?,” which criticized the headlines take HRT. have been writing about AIDS and proclaiming that HRT significantly in- We refer interested readers to our SI HIV therapy. AIDS is infinitely simpler creases the risk of breast cancer. Readers article and its longer, more detailed ver- than cancer, yet a decade of false starts might understandably be puzzled by the sion, “Hormone Replacement Ther apy: and dead ends, of failed hypotheses, led discrepancy between our perspective and Real Dangers and False Alarms,” The to progressive understanding of the that of Reynold Spec tor’s “Deadly Hy- Cancer Journal, March/April 2009, pp. pathophysiology and treatment of HIV pothesis Two,” in which he says that it is 93–104. This paper contains 210 refer- and resulted in the era of HAART, a “well-documented fact that estrogen is ences and a timeline of studies on HRT where the expected life ex pectancy of a carcinogen and causes breast cancer.” from 1942 to the present. The free, full- those with HIV is often close to normal. To support this claim, Spector relies on text article is available online at: http:// Medicine advances slowly and er - the findings of the Women’s Health journals.lww.com/journalppo/Fulltext/ ratically, and unfortunately more in - Initia tive (WHI). But the WHI is one 2009/04000/Hormone_Replacement_ sights are often gained from failure of the studies we criticize in great de tail, Therapy__Real_Concerns_and.1.aspx. than success. Only after enormous ef- showing that its findings regarding fort can we retroactively identify which breast cancer have been inconsistent. Avrum Bluming, MD medical interventions warranted the Virtually all of its alarmist conclusions— Oncologist, hematologist, internist gold standard, large, randomized, pla- that HRT in creases the risk of dementia, Former clinical professor of medicine, Univer- cebo-controlled trials demanded by stroke, cardiovascular disease, breast can- sity of Southern California Spector. Doing so prospectively is not cer, and even “deaths from all causes”— Carol Tavris, PhD as easy as he suggests. were a result of selection bias or post hoc Social psychologist, writer, and lecturer Medicine is pushed forward not by statistical manipulation. CSI fellow, Los Angles, California pseudoscientists and worse but by caring, Is estrogen the carcinogen that Spec - hardworking, and committed health care tor so unequivocally thinks it is? Our HARRIET HALL professionals who are doing the best they paper reviews the mounting evidence can under often tight funding limitations that questions this common wisdom. hen I first skimmed Reynold Spec- and great uncertainty. Spector’s dismis- Even the WHI results have not sup- Wtor’s article “Seven Deadly Medical sive attitude toward the blood and ported that association, finding a modest Hypotheses,” I found myself agreeing sweat expended by the researchers— (and usually statistically nonsignificant) with most of his points yet feeling and, often forgotten, the patients who rise in relative risk only for the combina- somehow disturbed. On a closer read- volunteer their life and health to ad- tion of estrogen-progestin therapy. In ing, I realized my discomfort was be- vance medicine by participating in clin- fact, a recent reanalysis of updated WHI cause he sounds more like a denialist or ical trials—is disappointing. data reported that postmenopausal ad- a contrarian than like a judicious skep- References ministration of estrogen alone decreases tic. His seven hypotheses are stated in Cummings, Steven R., Dennis M. Black, and the risk of subsequent breast cancer. words that subtly misrepresent the

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truth, and he attacks them with dogma- more skeptical. We need to carefully easy. Gorski talks about the “messiness tism where nuance is called for. evaluate the evidence for any medical of science-based medicine.” Crislip His main thesis is that “many med- claim. We need to do better-designed states “medicine advances slowly and er- ical and nutritional hypotheses are ill- studies. But it’s not always possible to ratically.” Hall states that “scientists are conceived.” That may be true, but sci- do the ideal study; sometimes we have doing the best they can.” What they do entists are doing the best they can. to go by the best available evidence not understand is that one of the rea- Does he imagine that they could some- from epidemiologic and other less de- sons for this sorry state of much of the how discipline themselves to only study sirable studies. We had to figure out clinical literature is that many published hypotheses that will turn out to be true? that smoking caused lung cancer without studies do not have a clear hy pothesis, After falsely characterizing hormone forcing subjects to smoke or not smoke are underpowered, or use inadequate replacement as an avoidable error, he in a randomized controlled prospective methods (e.g., epidemiology/observa- perpetuates the myth that HRT kills study. tion studies attempting to “prove” causal 5,000 women yearly from breast cancer. Spector’s article was doubly disap- connections). Exam ples include the The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) pointing because he had so many excel- hundreds of epidemiology/observation study showed no difference in overall lent points that were sabotaged by the studies on hormone replacement ther- mortality; so if HRT killed 5,000 way he presented them. Medical science apy (HRT) (see be low) or megavitamin women from breast cancer it would is far from perfect, but it is a cooperative, therapy (Spec tor 2009), most of which have to have saved another 5,000 from self-correcting endeavor that constantly yielded incorrect or inconclusive results other causes of death. criticizes itself and is constantly improv- and essentially none of which satisfied Deadly Hypothesis Four is that ing. We need continued rational skepti- the Hill criteria for validity (Spector and “screening tests beyond the standard cism and constructive dialog, not over- Vesell 2000; 2006). Genome-wide asso- medical examination are necessary for simplified contrarian polemics. n ciation studies, or GWAS, are another identifying disease or the risk of disease example. We have known for decades in apparently healthy, asymptomatic Harriet Hall, MD, “The SkepDoc” how to do good clinical science, but the adults.” The utility of screening tests is Editor, Science-Based Medicine methodologies are often not followed for Contributing Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER not an ill-conceived hypothesis, much reasons previously enumerated (Spec tor less a deadly one. A routine history and CSI fellow Contributing Editor, Skeptic magazine and Vesell 2002); flawed studies are pub- physical on an asymptomatic patient are lished and confusion reigns. Much of next to useless for detecting pre-sympto- the confusion could be eliminated by matic disease or risk of disease. That’s REYNOLD SPECTOR practicing valid science. The notion that why we have tried to devise useful Responds all these unscientific studies are hypoth- screening tests to diagnose certain dis- esis-generating is ludicrous. eases and risk factors before symptoms t is clear from reading these letters Bluming and Tavris challenge the develop, so early treatment might have a Tthat the correspondents do not un- notion that HRT increases breast can- chance of altering the course of disease. derstand how to evaluate the medical cer in post-menopausal women. Let me literature—how to discriminate the No screening test was ever a dopted with- give a broad overview of the multifac- wheat from the chaff. They do not un- out credible data and plausible reasoning. eted and overwhelming data that sup- derstand the hierarchical nature of It is a gross oversimplification to call ports the view that HRT causes human proffered evidence. For example, I “screening tests are necessary” a false hy- breast cancer: pothesis. Instead, Spector should have at- doubt any of the correspondents under- tacked the myth that screening tests are stand Hill’s criteria for assessing causal 1. Estrogen causes cancer of the breast categorically good and always save lives. relationships in epidemiology/obser - in female animals. Sometimes they fail to improve patient vation studies (see below). I recom- 2. Unopposed estrogen causes cancer of outcomes or even do more harm than mend they read Spector and Vesell the uterus in humans with a risk of good, and we then abandon them. All the (2006) or the online methodological up to twenty times more than aver- tests Spector questions (mammography, supplement to my paper on nutrition in age. That is why unopposed estrogen PSA tests, genetic screening) were first SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (Spector 2009). is not given to any woman with a questioned in the very medical literature They should also consult the FDA reg- uterus. he disparages. ulations for what constitutes proof in 3. The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) What Spector characterizes as “a drug development. and then the Million Woman Study chronic scandal” is nothing of the sort. Let me be concrete. Three corre- (Beral et al. 2011) both showed that It is a reflection of the complexity of the spondents claim I don’t understand that HRT in women with a uterus in- scientific process. Yes, we need to be the evaluation of clinical science is not creased breast cancer by 40–90 per-

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FOLLOW UP]

cent. The longer the use and the earlier cians used HRT broadly. I find his ar- than standard chemotherapy in terms of the start of HRT, the higher the risk gument unconvincing—in fact worri- both quality of care and longevity (Temel of developing breast cancer. some. First, we have known for decades et al. 2010). The scandals associated with 4. The Million Woman Study also that estrogen causes breast cancer in an- the so-called targeted chemotherapy— showed about a 40 percent increase imals and cancer of the uterus in such as the ineffective, incredibly expen- in incidence of breast cancer for hys- women. There was also substantial data sive, and risky Avastin in breast cancer terectomized women who took es- suggesting but not proving that HRT treatment—escalate (Tucker 2011). Fi- trogen for eight years (Beral et al. causes breast cancer in women. Second, nally, the authors of a recent long, 2011). The much smaller WHI the FDA wisely rejected (in the 1990s) thoughtful article (Smith and Hillner study of unopposed estrogen was the manufacturer’s claims that HRT de- 2011) argue persuasively, as I did, that stopped early because of increased creased cardiovascular and central nerv- there is tremendous overuse of chemo- strokes for women on estrogen. The ous system disease. These claims were therapy. The authors point out that “some women in that study were on estro- based on epidemiology/observation oncologists choose chemo therapy in gen for only three and a half years, studies, but they didn’t meet the Hill order to maximize their practice income. and the results are inconclusive criteria and turned out to be wrong. The A system in which one half the profits in ( Jungheim and Colditz 2011). FDA ap proved claims only for HRT oncology [practice] are from drug sales is 5. After the publication of the WHI decreasing post-menopausal symptoms unsustainable.” Where is the well-being study on HRT, the use of HRT fell and fractures. The FDA wisely ignored of the patient in this? A thoughtful, em- precipitously and soon after breast the unbridled industry-driven hype, un- pathetic reader will weep. n cancer incidence declined, consistent like many gullible physicians. Third, References with HRT causing breast cancer there were many HRT skeptics, including this correspondent (Spector and Beral, V., G. Reeves, D. Bull, et al. 2011. Breast (Beral et al. 2011). cancer risk in relation to the interval between 6. Anti-estrogens in post-menopausal Vesell 2000) and National Institutes of menopause and starting hormone therapy. women decrease breast cancer inci- Health Director Bernadine Healy, who Journal of the National Cancer Institute 103: began the WHI studies in 1991 to an- 296–305. dence by a whopping 60–80 percent Goss, P.E., J.N. Ingle, J.E. Alès-Martinez, et al. (Goss et al. 2011). swer the HRT questions definitively. 2011. Exemestane for breast-cancer preven- 7. The International Agency for Re- Now, twenty years later, we know that tion in postmenopausal women. New Eng land HRT causes breast cancer, strokes, clot- Journal of Medicine, in press. search on Cancer considers HRT Jungheim, E.S., and G.A. Colditz. 2011. Short- (either unopposed estrogen or estro- ting, uterine cancer (with use of unop- term use of unopposed estrogen. A balance of gen/progesterone combinations) hu - posed estrogen), cardiovascular disease, inferred risks and benefits. Journal of the and so forth. HRT should not be used American Medical Association 305: 1354–55. man carcinogens (cancer causing Smith, T.J., and B.E. Hillner. 2011. Bending the agents) (Jungheim and Colditz chronically; excellent nonhormonal cost curve in cancer care. New England Jour- 2011). So do the FDA and U.S. ways to prevent fracturing have been nal of Medicine 364: 2060–65. available since 1996. Spector, R. 2009. Science and pseudoscience in Supreme Court. adult nutrition research and practice. SKEP- 8. The labeling of HRT, approved by In fact, I believe a good physician TICAL INQUIRER 33(3) (May/June): 35–41. the FDA, recommends HRT for the should use only proven therapies for ———. 2010. War on cancer: A progress report which the risk/benefit ratio favors the for skeptics. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 34(1) shortest possible time at the lowest ( January/February): 25–31. possible dose. patients. That was never the case with Spector, R., and E.S. Vesell. 2000. The pursuit of 9. Bluming and Tavris concede that in HRT, a known carcinogen. Fortu nately, clinical truth: Role of epidemiology studies. when my sister asked me if she should Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 40: 1205–10. a worst-case scenario, there might be ———. 2002. Which studies of therapy merit a 2 percent increased risk of breast take HRT for her menopausal symp- credence? Vitamin E and estrogen therapy as toms in the mid-nineties, I said no; it’s cautionary examples. Journal of Clinical Phar- cancer in women on HRT for ten too risky and its benefits are uncertain. macology 42: 1–8. years. This amounts to two hundred ———. 2006. Pharmacology and statistics: Rec- I also wrote about this over ten years ago thousand more cases of breast cancer ommendations to strengthen a productive (Spector and Vesell 2000). partnership. Pharmacology 78: 113–22. per ten million women on HRT for To answer the questions on cancer Temel, J.S., J.A. Greer, A. Muzikansky, et al. 2010. ten years. At the peak of HRT use, Early palliative care for patients with chemotherapy, I recommend my SKEP- many times more women were tak- metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. New TICAL INQUIRER article “The War on England Journal of Medicine 363: 733–42. ing HRT. What are Blum ing and Cancer” (Spector 2010). More over, the Tucker, F.C. 2011. Drugs and profits. New York Tavris thinking? Times (May 25). problems with chemotherapy keep sur- Crislip writes an apologia for why, facing. For example, it was shown that for Reynold Spector, MD before the definitive studies of HRT lung cancer patients, hospice care with Clinical Professor of Medicine, Robert Wood began to be published in 1998, physi- minimalist chemotherapy was better Johnson Medical School (New Jersey)

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[REVIEWS

Slaying the Beast of the Gévaudan BLAKE SMITH

here are many legendary monsters, but very few of these bear the Tonerous burden of the phrase based Monsters of the Gévaudan: The Making of a Beast on a true story. Of these few, perhaps no By Jay M. Smith. Harvard University Press, monster has inspired more wild specu- Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2011. lation than the creature that terrorized ISBN: 0674047168. 392 pp. Hardcover, $35. France in the 1760s—a monstrous killer that was responsible for perhaps more than a hundred deaths. As a skeptical investigator of such mysteries, I have had a long fascination with this animal—often referred to as the Beast of Gévaudan, or in French as La Béte. I had it in mind to do a lengthy investi- So many books have been written the Ripper” killings of the late 1800s af- gation of the historical basis for the about La Béte that it is difficult to tease fected the La Béte tale by prompting the creature when I found that Jay M. out the facts; even at the time the crea- theory that the killings were performed Smith’s new book, Monsters of the Gé- ture(s) were killing people, the reports by a serial killer. Smith does a good job vaudan, has rendered such an exercise described very conflicting details. The of summing up the problem with this moot. clergy at the time bemoaned the loose kind of modern interpretation of the Far more than a monster story, morals of young people and urged legend outside of historical context: “In Smith’s book breaks down the tale of everyone to get back onto a stronger the case of the beast, the gradual decon- imperiled villagers and impotent public moral track, or else the attacks would textualization of its story meant that it and military responses to the threat continue. Local politicians tried not to eventually became available for ‘recon- within the geopolitical context of look inept in the face of this dire threat textualization’ in new narrative genres France’s position after its devastating and formed hunting parties to try and that reflected contemporary concerns loss to England in a war that effectively run the animal to ground. Amateur zo- or offered the possibility of entertaining stripped away much of the empire’s ologists speculated wildly about what reinterpretation of a story with fantastic military clout and standing in the the true nature of the animal could be. appeal” (264). world. This is no simple story of vil- Broadsheet newspapers printed lurid Smith’s book also does a fantastic lagers being wiped out by animal at- details of the killings as well as various job of retelling the story of La Béte tacks. Instead, Smith shows that the pieces of fantastic art describing the within its historical context. His pas- lurid story of La Béte is perhaps one of beast and its supernatural antics. sion for that period of French history is the first examples of media frenzy cre- Moreover, as the nascent popular apparent in the way he makes these ating a monster far more spectacular press ran its stories of the beast and the characters and their motivations clear than its likely mundane basis. (If hap- failed attempts to protect the region to modern readers. But what about the less villagers being torn to pieces by an- from attack, local would-be heroes and big question? What was La Béte? imals can be considered mundane— hunters from other parts of France dis- In the opening Smith makes a very and Smith makes a pretty good case covered the perils of bad publicity. compelling case that the terrorizing that it could be at the time.) But not Throughout the past century, the monster was a pack of wolves that had only does the book give us the social overwhelming question about La Béte become unafraid of people. This isn’t a context, it also demonstrates how the has been what was it? At the time, book about solving the mystery of what politicians, clergy, and aristocrats of the guesses about the creature’s identity particular animal was responsible for region attempted to utilize the beast’s ranged from wolf to bear to hyena. A these killings. Instead it explains that attacks for their own political gain. werewolf was also suggested. The “Jack such killings were not even rare events

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NEW AND NOTABLE] Listing does not preclude future review.

THE BIG BOOK OF UFOS. Chris A. Rutkowski. Not an encyclopedia but indeed a big book of UFOs, covering a useful chronological overview of reports by decade, along with more in-depth discussions of abductees, conspiracies, and a significant section on skeptics, including Phil Klass and CSI. Dundurn Press, 2010, 386 because a convergence of new technologies, pp., $19.99. economics, politics, and weather led to an environment where people were vulnerable, HEAVEN IN THE AMERICAN IMAGINATION. Gary Scott Smith. Smith examines and carnivorous animals in a famine region how Americans (both historically and presently) interpret and imagine heaven, drawing upon art, psychology, folklore, poetry, fiction, and other sources. Oxford took advantage of the situation by eating University Press, 2011, 338 pp., $29.95. humans. After all, with the emergence of European tales of the “big bad wolf,” it LEGENDS OF THE FIRE SPIRITS: Jinn and Genies from Arabia to Zanzibar. would be quite surprising if wolves never Robert Lebling. A well-written and fascinating survey of folklore about genies posed a danger. Smith points out that far around the world; from ancient pre-Islamic legends to modern interpretations. from being innocuous, wolves were probably Counterpoint Books, 2010, 298 pp., $16.95. responsible for hundreds to thousands of LONE STAR SPOOKS: Searching for Ghosts in Texas. Nate Riddle. An examina- deaths in the previous century to the killings tion of Texas ghosts and hauntings, including some first-hand research and a sig- of La Béte: nificant section on skeptical research and methodologies. Schiffer Publishing, The threat was ubiquitous. Rabies-infected 2011, 160 pp., $16.99. wolves claimed well over a thousand French lives in the early modern centuries, PAYBACK: Why We Retaliate, Redirect Aggres sion, and Take Revenge. David and in spite of the modern “dogma” that Barash and Judith Lipton. Evolutionary biologist Barash and psychiatrist Lipton healthy wolves never attack humans, man- examine revenge in humans and other animals—why we do it, the different forms eating wolves unhampered by disease killed it takes, and the consequences. Oxford University Press, 2011, 209 pp., $24.95. at least 1,875 people in these same years. Because of huge gaps in the ad ministrative MARGARET MEAD: A Biography. Mary Bowman-Kruhm. A succinct biography of records before the nineteenth century, the famous anthropologist traces her life and career, providing many interesting Moriceau is inclined to put the true num- details and some new material. It concludes with an assessment, a discussion of ber of human fatalities in the early modern the various criticisms and controversies generated by her work, and speculations period closer to a staggering 9,000.” (12) on what she would say about today’s cultural landscape. Prometheus Books, 2011, Combining details of the killings, char- 199 pp., $17. acter sketches of the aristocrats and hunters PERFIDIOUS PROVERBS AND OTHER POEMS: A Satirical Look at the Bible.Philip who sought to kill the beast, and modern Appleman. An award-winning poet and writer presents poems written over a period analysis of how the legend itself has mor- of thirty years in the conviction that satire is perhaps “our most effective way of phed over time, this book provides the an- lighting candles in the darkness and communicating effectively to those who are swers to most of the questions I had about immune to reason.” Prometheus Books/Humanity Books, 2011, 140 pp., $14. the case. Yes, there really were killings; yes, there really were animals to blame; and no, THE PRACTICAL PSYCHIC: A No-Nonsense Guide to Developing Your Natural Intuitive Abilities. Noreen Renier. Renier, the career psychic detective whose it probably was not a hyena or a werewolf claims have been discussed (and often debunked) in these pages, offers advice that was responsible for the many gruesome on how average folk can be psychic; her “exercises” and tests are especially re- deaths. But even knowing the culprit was a vealing for their lack of scientific rigor. Adams Media, 2011, 246 pp., $14.95. natural animal, the tale of the developing legend is still fascinating. SEEKING THE TRUTH: How Science Has Prevailed over the Supernatural If you enjoy mysteries and history, this Worldview. Richard H. Schlagel. In this sweeping intellectual history, the Elton book has much to offer. While the tragedy Professor of Philosophy Emeritus at George Washington University reconstructs the tremendous achievements of science, showing how it has brought fundamen- of the deaths this creature caused may have tal conceptual revolutions “in contrast to the archaic, reactionary” nature of reli- diminished over the past two centuries, this gions. Prometheus Books/Humanity Books, 2011, 518 pp., $39. book does a great job of giving context to the killings and their rise to infamy a more PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS: Skeptical Giggles from The Skeptical Inquirer. Robert poignant and understandable story than I’ve Sheaffer. Illustrations by Rob Pudim. A highly welcome collection from Sheaffer’s previously encountered. This book is a must- long-running column in SI (nicely illustrated with Rob Pudim’s humorous draw- have for monster enthusiasts, media buffs, ings), taking amusing and acerbic looks at alien antics, implausible science and medicine, psychic powers and predictions, astonishing animals, doomsdays and n and Francophiles. conspiracies, the sacred and the profane, and a final category, “beyond description.” Create Space (available on Amazon.com or, at a discount, via the author’s Blake Smith is a skeptical researcher, web program- blog, BadUFOs.com). 2011, 319 pp., $19.95. mer, and cohost of the MonsterTalk podcast (www.monstertalk.org). —Benjamin Radford and Kendrick Frazier

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[INBOX

maintained forever. We can’t been used for that purpose.” In even keep secrets in the CIA! fact, there was one. Many people would have to be In 1933–1934 Chicago held involved over an extended time a World’s Fair, themed “A Cen- period: demolitions experts, hi- tury of Progress.” One of the at- jackers, FBI and Interpol inves- tractions was something called tigators, etc. What if one of the “The Sky Ride.” Two 600-foot- WTC aircraft hijackings had tall towers supported cars which been thwarted by passengers as passengers rode between at the in the case of Flight 93? One of 200-foot level. the towers would still be standing After the Fair completed its with demolitions evidence that run the towers were razed. The would have to be removed. Even West tower was brought down a flight cancellation or delay by dynamite, the East by ther- would have created havoc. What mite. Look at the Wikipedia if WTC 7 hadn’t caught fire? entry for the Sky Ride. Certainly this could not have I lived in Chicago in the been guaranteed. Would they 1940s and visited the park that have proceeded with the demo- was once the fair grounds many lition? What if the demolition times. One of the tower stumps triggers failed due to damage was still there. from the aircraft? The list could Aside from that, a very good go on for pages. All of this so we article. could go to war in Afghanistan? Joe Ferrari Give me a break! White Plains, New York Robin McMeeking Pinckney, Michigan If I could say one thing to the 9/11 Truthers, it would be this: As I read Bartlett and Miller’s ar- Remember that the official ex- 9/11 Conspiracy jet fuel had entered the buildings ticle on the 9/11 Truth move- planation for 9/11 is itself a con- Theories: Ten Years Later diagonally, would the buildings ment (“A Bestiary of the 9/11 spiracy theory. There, now, aren’t have toppled in the direction of Truth Movement: Notes from you happy? I would like to thank you for your the Front Line,” SI, July/August), the weakened corners instead of Richard S. Russell fine article on 9/11 (Dave it occurred to me that the more falling on their footprints, there - Madison, Wisconsin Thomas, “The 9/11 Truth Move by causing far more damage to extreme and ridiculous 9/11 ment: The Top Conspiracy The- the surrounding area? Truther claims are themselves a ories a Decade Later,” July/Aug - government conspiracy to dis- Something else I’ve won- Thank you for the great article ust 2011). I have struggled for dered ever since the event: Was credit the more plausible claim “A Bestiary of the 9/11 Truth years looking for a solution as to there not even one architect or that the government chose to in- Movement: Notes from the why the towers fell and had a structural engineer somewhere in vade Iraq and steal the second Front Line.” The authors’ dissec- hard time believing the planes the country who could see that largest reserve of oil in the world. tion of the people who are in- brought them down. I also had a the risk of collapse was such that But, hey, I’m probably just volved in the 9/11 Truth move- hard time believing explosives those 343 firemen needed to get one of those conspiracy nuts. ment and their backgrounds, were set at the base of the towers out of there? R. Allen Gilliam motivations, and the roles they because the collapse seems to Don Keith Winter Park, Florida play is truly eye-opening. It an- occur story by story. Your an - Waterloo, ON, Canada swers some of my puzzlement atomy of the WTC collapse and bewilderment over seem- makes more sense than anything I just read Dave Thomas’s 9/11 ingly educated, intelligent, and I have read on the subject. Out- I found it easy to dismiss the Truth move ment article. Good competent people (such as the standing article. Thanks again. demolition theories without re- stuff. I don’t hold a brief for the Architects and Engineers for Richard E. Browning, PE quiring analytical refutation. conspiracy seekers, but I think he 9/11 Truth group) who can be so rbrowning@industrial- These theories introduce far may be wrong on one point. I willfully and deliberately igno- tech.com greater problems to address than thought I’d call it to your atten- rant. The biggest among the anything they purport to solve. It tion before one of the Truthers three groups described by the au- seems the “mastermind” would brings it up to try to discredit thors is the “illiterati,” whose Dave Thomas’s very specific an - almost certainly have to be the your effort. “contributions, almost entirely atomy of the collapses at the president of the United States. On page 38 Thomas says, devoid of genuine intent to find World Trade Center was ab- What would we do to such a “Thermite is simply not practical truth, are almost always nakedly sorbing. president if he were found out? for carrying out a controlled and transparently propagandis- I do have a couple of ques- Clearly he would have to believe demolition, and there is no doc- tic” and whose membership is “as tions. If the planes loaded with that absolute secrecy could be umentation of it ever having much a social and recreational

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pursuit as an exercise in critical cause there was no significant Harrit would be interested in a real Chandler since August of 2010 at inquiry.” impact, because 90 percent of the thermitic collapse, but 9/11 www.nmsr.org/nmsr911c.htm. Under this definition, I find resistance was being eliminated Truthers have simply ignored this That he concludes his response to that “illiterati” are everywhere in by other means. new and relevant information. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER with non- our society, not just confined to The problem is not that I (or That’s probably because the real scientific polemics is most revealing. the conspiracy theory circle. You my peer reviewers) don’t know thermitic demolition required thou- can find them in the comments the difference between static and sands of pounds of thermite for just section of any article published dynamic loads. The problem is a small radio tower—how much What Is Acupuncture? online. Some high-profile, highly that Dave Thomas, and the edi- would have been needed for the In “What is Acupuncture?” (SI, charged topics generate hun- tors of this magazine, have made Twin Towers and WTC 7? July/August 2011) Novella dreds or even thousands of com- the a priori decision to defend or- David Chandler argues that makes it clear he has no love for ments. In a random sampling thodoxy in the name of skepti- my explanation for the towers’ acupuncture, but I think he you will find that only a few of cism and heap scorn on the true rapid (but not “free fall”) collapses misses some important positives the comments are thoughtful, skeptics of the blatantly ideolog- is flawed because it was based on for acu puncture in his analysis. fair, and even-handed. Most ex- ical official myth of 9/11. assumptions with “no observational First, as he accurately points out, press a point of view entirely fil- or experimental basis,” and that I David Chandler acupuncture is quite likely not tered through the narrow, some- postulated a “series of unobservable, [email protected] Chinese in origin. Otzi, the five- times radical, prism of the high frequency micro-jolts, not de- thousand-year-old European commenter’s worldview. Some tectable with the frame rate of an Dave Thomas replies: who melted out of an Italian are ramblings seemingly unre- ordinary video camera.” That is not Alpine glacier, has what appear lated to the article, and some are I appreciate Richard Browning’s correct. I based my model on com- to be acupuncture points tat- emotional outbursts; some are kind re marks. mon knowledge and the laws of tooed on his skin. This is very obviously written by people who Don Keith asks some good ques- physics. I used the height and mass early science—a systemic view of never actually read the article. tions. The consensus is that even if of tower floors, the stiffness of tower healing long before humans un- They attack, belittle, and insult there was some tilt at the start of the columns and supports, and the derstood the circulatory system the author and the other com- tower collapses (and there was), any principle of conservation of energy or nervous system. Whether they menters. There is no intention or asymmetry in the collapse of the to estimate the dynamic forces ap- had it right or not, healers were even pretense to engage in con- first panels would quickly be oblit- plied by the falling upper sections. I plotting what appeared to be structive debate to forward and erated with the increasing down- applied the law of conservation of complex relationships between share ideas. The “illiterati” are ward pace of the gravitational av- momentum to calculate the drop in symptoms and various non-local everywhere. It’s quite depressing! alanche. The Towers’ failure speed due to the resistance of each areas of the body and were quite mechanism caused them to fall floor panel throughout the collapses. Mio Sam Lao precise about it. down on an area somewhat larger I used these speed changes, and Princeton, New Jersey Second, while Novella finds than their footprints, rather than Newton’s Second Law of Motion, to only two studies among the great falling over like a felled tree. As re- deduce collision times for each floor number of acupuncture studies gards advance warning of the panel, and calculated (not “as- SI readers should be aware that that meet his criteria as showing tower collapses, there was at least sumed”) that these were brief, on Dave Thomas’s critique of my no bias, this criticism can be ap- one failed attempt. This incident is the order of a few milliseconds in analysis of the destruction of plied to the majority of clinical nicely summarized at the Screw my one-dimensional, simplified WTC 1, the North Tower of the studies. But the meta-analysis Loose Change blog (search on analysis. If the frame rate of the World Trade Center, is based on provided by WHO (Acupuncture. Ganci). Briefly, before the collapses, video Chandler used was far too assumptions that have no obser- Review and Analysis of Reports an “engineer type person” warned large to see the rapid and subtle ve- vational or experimental basis. on Controlled Clinical Trials, Xia - NYFD Battalion Chief John Pe- locity changes predicted by my He achieves his large forces by orui Zhang, Acting Coordinator, ruggia that the buildings were in model, that is not the model’s fault. postulating a series of unobserv- TRM & EDM World Health imminent danger of collapse. Pe- But the biggest mistake Chan- able, high frequency micro-jolts, Organization) shows that for ruggia promptly dispatched EMT dler makes is to state that there is no not detectable with the frame many conditions, acupuncture is Zarillo to warn Chief Ganci at the observational support for my model, rate of an ordinary video camera. significantly more effective than command post across the street from which explains how the collapsing As a reality check, I have done a conventional medical treatment. WTC 1. Zarillo told Ganci about towers encountered considerable re- video analysis, titled “What In fact, in the German study that a Gravity-Driven Demolition the collapse danger, but Chief Ganci sistance, making them fall at less- Novella cites (M. Haake et al.’s Looks Like” (see www.911speak only had about enough time to say than-gravitational accelerations. “GERAC for Chronic Low out.org), showing a known, “Who the f___ told you that?” be- My model predicts that the early Back Pain”) both real and sham purely gravitational demolition. fore WTC 2 collapsed. collapses were at 2/3 g and the final acupuncture were more than In that demolition, as the upper Joe Ferrari’s good correction re- stages at 1/3 g. There is observa- twice as effective as conventional section of the building impacts garding a real thermitic demolition tional confirmation of my model, treatment in reducing low back the lower section, there is signif- of a radio tower from Chicago’s from measurements of the fall of pain. (Real acupuncture was icant, measurable, macroscopic 1933–34 World’s Fair is appreci- WTC 1 showing that the accelera- slightly more effective than the deceleration of the falling sec- ated. It did happen, and it was doc- tion for the first few seconds was ef- sham version.) Placebo or not, tion, just as one would expect. umented in the November 1935 fectively 2/3 g. Who provided this acupuncture works. However, in the case of WTC 1, edition of Popular Mechanics. confirmation? David Chandler. deceleration is noticeably absent. You’d think that 9/11 thermite ad- My detailed explanation of all Robert Veitch There was no deceleration be- vocates like Steven Jones or Niels this has been available to David Minneapolis, Minnesota

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[LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Steven Novella, MD, replies: Popper, Kuhn udice or Preference?” (“Sci ence plenty of female role models to . . . and Ziman Watch,” SI, July/August 2011) inspire them and make it seem Veitch makes a number of incorrect failed to discuss the important natural for women to be in the statements in his response to my Thanks to Massimo Pigliucci for influence of the lack of role mod- field and to be respected for their acupuncture article. First, he char- his column about “Popper vs. els applying to women’s (and mi- contributions. acterizes what was being practiced Kuhn,” which brought up many norities’) choices concerning a Thus I personally expect five thousand years ago (whether interesting issues (SI, July/Au- scientific career. The psycholog- more women to pursue high-end acupuncture or not) as science. gust 2011). The point he made ical effect of never having seen a science in the next twenty years, However, there is nothing in the that “science works well precisely woman with a PhD in mathe- simply because the number of historical record of any culture to in- because there is a division of matics (and not seeing any pa- women in such careers is reach- dicate that scientific methods were labor” between “puzzle solving” pers by one until later in my ing a critical mass. It is now con- being employed at that time. Veitch and “criticism” is particularly in- career) was a strong negative sidered more normal and accept- confuses “complex” and “precise” triguing. during my time in graduate able for a woman to be in such a practices with scientific practices. Some years back I taught a school from 1973–1978. Fortu- career than it ever was before. However, there are many examples college course called “Technol- nately, another woman entered That really matters for many of complex, elaborate, and precise ogy and Human Values.” On my the PhD program at the same women. disciplines that are completely fab- required reading list was Public time, and we were office mates. ricated and devoid of any real sci- Knowledge: An Essay Concerning Together we constituted 66.7 Lucy Dechene, PhD ence, such as astrology. In fact, the the Social Dimension of Science by percent of the female enrollment Department of Mathematics analogy is appropriate, as the ori- John Ziman (Cambridge Uni- in the mathematics PhD pro- Fitchburg State University gins of acupuncture are closely tied versity Press, 1968). Of course, gram at the University of Cali- Fitchburg, Massachusetts with astrological beliefs. Ziman wrote many fine books fornia, River side, for most of my Further, I never claimed there about what science is and how graduate career. My office mate Kenneth W. Krause replies: are only two studies of acupuncture it’s done. Still, his exploration in graduated a year before I did and Yes, as the new study from Ceci and devoid of bias. There are many good Public Knowledge of the concept thus became the first woman Williams suggests, women have studies, but there are far more very that “science is public knowledge” with a PhD in mathematics I come a very long way in high-end had ever known. poor-quality studies. The WHO offers many valuable insights into science. But we should take care not how science works in the real Both my office mate and I meta-analysis is highly criticized as to diminish the plight of our less for- world. went through crises of doubt and being political and misrepresenting tunate predecessors. In the context of Ziman’s definition branches serious considerations of quitting. the evidence. A recent and rigorous a discussion regarding the historical off into many fruitful areas, with I was able to buck her up at cru- review of systematic reviews of reality of true discrimination, the notion of a scientific consen- cial times and she did the same acupuncture (E. Ernst, M.S Lee, vague and reduced complaints sus—a social factor—at the core. for me. I think neither of us and T.Y. Choi’s “Acupuncture: Does about the "psychological disincen- The concept offers key insights would have finished had the It Alleviate Pain and Are There tive" of not seeing enough women into how scientists are trained, other not been in the program. Serious Risks? A Review of Re- around the university might ring the interplay between scientific When one is constantly being views, Pain, April 2011) shows hollow. Some women who have ac- that research has failed to demon- claims and challenges, and many told how “weird” one is for pursuing such a “man’s” field and how tually been victimized might even strate that acupuncture is effective other elements within the scien- unlikely it is that one will succeed, feel insulted, which I know was not for any pain indication. It is essen- tific community. Pigliucci’s “divi- it is really hard to persist and to Dechene's intent. And now, as Ceci tially an elaborate placebo. sion of labor” clearly functions within that community. have confidence in one’s ability. and Williams also point out, we ap- Finally, Veitch misinterprets the Ziman’s long essay sparked I’m sure the experience of minor- pear to be faced with a similar but Haake back pain study (which is many valuable class discussions ity PhD students is similar. opposite problem: "bias in favor of not surprising—most of the media about the nature of science. I The more women and mi- women." Discrimination against also did). The study was not de- highly recommend it to those in- norities enter high-end science anyone on the basis of gender (or signed to compare acupuncture to terested in a somewhat different and advance in their fields, the race), I would add, is categorically conventional treatment. Patients “take” on the subject. (The book more appropriate role models unacceptable. were selected who had already failed no longer seems to be in print, there are. So in the last thirty- That said, Else-Quest con- whatever care they were receiving, but many college libraries have eight years, there has been a great cluded in her earlier study that "girls and in that arm of the study they copies.) improvement in removing this will perform at the same level as continued their already-failed care. psychological disincentive for their male counterparts when they They were not given any conven- Evan E. Filby, PhD women to pursue PhDs in sci - are encouraged to succeed, are given tional treatment as part of the trial. Idaho Academy of Science ence. In 1978, I was the first the necessary educational tools, and Their group assignment was not woman with a PhD in mathe- have visible female role models blinded, and their outcome was used matics hired by my current uni- excelling in mathematics” (my only as a baseline. The only blinded Women in Science versity. Now fully half of my de- emphasis). I wonder, though, if in comparisons in the study—among partment consists of women order to be accepted according to true, sham, and placebo acupunc- I was surprised that Kenneth W. with mathematics doctorates. All one’s individual merits, one would ture—showed no significant differ- Krause’s otherwise excellent arti- of my younger female colleagues be well advised to think of him- or ence. In other words, acupuncture cle “Women and High-End had women as thesis advisors, herself as an individual first, rather does not work. Science: Nurture or Nature, Prej- too. Now all of our students have than as a member of any group.

64 Volume 35 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:44 PM Page 65

Séances and Sinkings posing secrets but for violating the gion when it should be consid- resource dis tribution and envi- 1735 Witchcraft Act, although “it ered as irrelevant to holding a ronmental damage that we have The assertion that Helen Duncan was said”—belatedly, as I pointed public office? The proclamations already begun to see. Unless we was prosecuted during World out—that she had revealed the seem to have no bearing on per- quickly find ways to cope with War II for illegally exposing the sinking of the Hood and Barham. sonal conduct and, for some, the growing demands on our dimin- 1941 sinkings of the HMS Whereas Paul asserts that “The public disgrace that follows. ishing resources, there may not Barham and HMS Hood cannot Loss of the Barham was revealed be any future generations to Arthur R. Thomas be entirely correct (Joe Nickell’s only after the war” (i.e., 1945), a worry about this problem. member of the HMS Barham as- Gloucester, Massachusetts “The Séances of ‘Hellish Nell,’” Don Mayer sociation observes (confirmed by SI, July/August 2011). Palos Verdes, California The loss of the Barham was other sources) that it was otherwise. Mumler’s Ghost? revealed only after the war, via The sinking (which occurred on No- vember 25, 1941) was “officially film footage (endlessly reused) In the article “Photos of Ghosts” Viewing the Past? showing the vessel rolling onto published” in January 1942. He suggests that survivors could have (SI, July/August 2011) Massimo its side as its magazines blew up. Polidoro states photographer Werdegar’s letter regarding Mas- The secrecy was feasible because contacted relatives even before the of- simo Pigli ucci’s column “On ficial announcement and that “it William Mumler died in 1884. after loosing its torpedoes, U- Earlier in the article he discusses Time Travel” (Letter to the Edi- 331 was too tied up avoiding was local knowledge at the time that tor, SI, July/August 2011) dis- the ship had sunk” (quoted by BBC Mumler’s photograph of the being rammed and then depth “crowd of mourners at the Lon- cussed the possibility of a time charged to realize its success. News, online). As to the Hood, as viewer that would not disturb the Paul notes, “British authorities made don Cenotaph on Armistice That the Barham was a little- past. no effort to hide the loss.” Day.” Since the Cenotaph was known, slow, ram-bowed, un- However, we cannot observe Unfortunately (as I noted in my completed in 1920 and Arm - modernized World War I war- without affecting that which we investigative article), there is an istice Day originated on Novem- ship helped keep its terrible observe in some, possibly minus- online petition calling for Duncan ber 11, 1918, I guess it must have destruction under wraps. cule, way. If the time viewer ex- to be pardoned, but I believe only been Mumler’s ghost that took The crew of the new Bis- tracted photons from the past, the misinformed and the gullible that photograph. then the effect of those photons marck was entirely aware that will sign it. on the past would change. De- after having lobbed just five E.A. Grens pending on how it worked, the salvos of twenty armor piercing Rio Vista, California time viewer might, in fact, ob- rounds, they had blown up the Religious, or Not? scure the vision of some animal “Mighty” Hood, a ship that had or person, bringing it to injury or been the terror of war games I enjoyed Keith Taylor’s forum Immortality’s Implications death. If used in the same place despite being twenty years old. column “Deliberate Ignorance” over a period of time, it might The Nazi propaganda machine (SI, July/August 2011). However, Regarding the review “Escaping siphon off enough photons to wasted no time in informing the I saw a statement I just had to damage vegetation. world that Hitler’s fleet had sent check. On page 53, he says, “The Mortality” by Daniel Grassam the exceptionally handsome last refuge for deniers of hard (SI, July/August 2011), I am al- Van Knowles pride of the Royal Navy to the facts is religion; every congress- ways baffled by the proponents Lexington, Kentucky bottom. British authorities made man except Pete Stark of Oak- of life extension for humans who no effort to hide the loss. Not ac- land claims a belief in a supreme never seem to consider the prac- knowledged was Admiral John being.” Until just a few years ago tical implications of “immortal- [FEEDBACK Tovey’s gross error of dividing his there were six members in the ity.” Will these immortals be eat- powerful battle fleet of four bat- House who were listed as unaf- ing food, drinking water, driving The letters column is a forum on mat - ters raised in previous issues. Letters tleships and battle cruisers into filiated. Given the general atti- cars, discarding trash, buying houses, and continuing to exploit should be no longer than 225 words. two weak divisions. tude of many about atheists and Due to the volume of letters we receive, There was wide discussion in agnostics, that seems like a sen- the earth’s diminishing resources? not all can be published. Send letters the press about how the national sible choice. There used to be five After they retire, will they be col- as email text (not attachments) to let- tragedy (too similar to the explo- to eight members of Congress lecting pensions or Social Secu- ters@csicop. org. In the subject line, sions that killed almost all routinely listed as non-affiliated rity for, let’s see, forever? Our provide your surname and informative aboard three battle cruisers at or unaffiliated (http://newsweek aging population is already put- identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jutland in 1916) could have hap - .washingtonpost.com/onfaith/fai ting enormous strain on the do- Jones evolution art icle.” In clude your mestic (and world) economy and name and ad dress at the end of the let- pened, the common myth being thfacts/2007/01/religious_affili- ter. You may also mail your letter to the that the Hood lacked sufficient ation_on_capit.html). the environment, so how can we editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, deck armor. The real cause of the In the current Congress, none expect that an exponentially in- NM 87122, or fax it to 505-828-2080. explosions was the dangerously are unaffiliated, but there are five creasing number of people in a unstable formulation of British or six who refused to answer. new leisure class will have any- gun propellant. That choice suggests something thing but an overwhelmingly neg ative impact on the planet? Gregory Paul has changed in the assessment of Even a modest increase in life ex- Baltimore, Maryland the religious-political climate. Has this country become more pectancy will necessarily and Joe Nickell replies: intolerant of atheists and agnos- profoundly accelerate the growth Cause Page: Committee for Skeptical The bogus medium Helen Duncan tics, or are we just hearing more of human population on the Inquiry/Skeptical Inquirer magazine was not actually prosecuted for ex- people making an issue of reli- planet and the resultant crises of Fan Page: Skeptical Inquirer

Skeptical Inquirer | November / December 2011 65 SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:44 PM Page 66

[ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD

HIDDEN MESSAGES by Dave Thomas SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by Tim Farley The following letters are a simple substitution cipher. If R stands for L, it will do so everywhere. Solution is by trial November 15, 1966: Five people sighted what and error. Hint: Look for patterns in words; for example, the was later known as "Mothman" while driving in scrambled phrase “JRXJ JRQ” might represent “THAT THE.” West Virginia.

PUZZLE December 9, 1531: The Our Lady of Guadalupe Marian apparition gave rise to what is now "ZBFGINF OKMBDFBIE XHIA FGK EIHA, the second most-visited Catholic shrine in the world. JHISHKCC BC EIF JICCBYUK."—XHDER TDJJD December 10, 1986: Creationism court case Edwards v. Aguillard was argued before the United States Supreme Court.

December 13, 1976 in The New Yorker an article titled "Microwaves" by Paul Brodeur helped CLUE: M = V launch the modern health scare around electromagnetic fields.

PREVIOUS PUZZLE SOLUTION (July/August 2011): “THE ROOT OF ALL SUPERSTITION IS THAT MEN OBSERVE WHEN A THING HITS, BUT NOT WHEN IT MISSES."—FRANCIS BACON Hidden Messages Puzzle Contest Submit your solution by e-mail to [email protected] SUPER-SECRET WORD: PRECLUSION or via postal mail to: Benjamin Radford The Last Laugh (Instructions: www.nmsr.org/secretword.htm) P.O. Box 3016 Corrales, NM 87048 Winner will be chosen at random from the first three correct submissions received by both email and postal mail. This issue’s prize: a DVD of the documentary Giving Up the Ghost, about modern ghost hunters, from Exspiro Productions BIZARRO

Bizarro (New)©2008 Dan Piraro King Features Syndicate STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT, AND CIRCULATION (Required by 39 U.S.C. 3685) Date of filing: September 14, 2011. Title: Skeptical Inquirer. Frequency of issue: Bimonthly. Complete mailing address of known office of publication: 3965 Rensch Rd., Amherst, NY 14228- 2713; P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Publisher: CSI (Committee for Skeptical Inquiry), Inc., 3965 Rensch Rd., Amherst, NY 14228-2713; P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Editor: Kendrick Frazier, 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122-1339. Managing Editor: Benjamin T. Radford, PO Box 3016, Corrales, NM 87048-3016. Owner: CSI (Committee for Skeptical Inquiry), Inc., 3965 Rensch Rd., Amherst, NY 14228-2713; P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security holders: None. Average number of copies of each issue during the preceding 12 months: (a) Total number of copies (net press run) 43,080. (b) Paid and/or requested circulation: (1) Paid/requested outside-county mail subscriptions stated on form 3541: 19,291. (2) Paid in-county subscriptions stated on form 3541: 0. (3) Sales through dealers and carriers, street vendors, counter sales, and other non- USPS paid distribution: 8,178. (4) Other classes mailed through the USPS: 811. (c) Total paid and/or requested circulation (sum of b[1], [2], [3], [4]): 28,280. (d) Free distribution by mail (samples, complimentary, and other free): (1) Outside-county as stated on form 3541: 869. (2) In-county as stated on form 3541: 0. (3) Other classes mailed through the USPS: 100. (4) Free distribution outside the mail (by carriers or other means): 1. (e) Total free distribution (sum of d) 970. (f) Total distribution (sum of c and e) 29,250. (g) Copies not distributed: 13,830. (h) Total (sum of f and g): 43,080. Percent paid and/or requested circulation (c divided by h times 100): 96.68%. Number of copies of the single issue published nearest to filing date: (a) Total number of copies (net press run) 44,225. (b) Paid and/or requested circulation: (1) Paid/requested outside-county mail subscriptions stated on form 3541: 20,362. (2) Paid in-county subscriptions stated on form 3541: 0. (3) Sales through dealers and carriers, street vendors, counter sales, and other non-USPS paid distribution: 7,552. (4) Other classes mailed through the USPS: 946. (c) Total paid and/or requested circulation (sum of b[1], [2], [3], [4]): 28,860. (d) Free distribution by mail (samples, complimentary, and other free): (1) Outside-county as stated on form 3541: 869. (2) In-county as stated on form 3541: 0. (3) Other classes mailed through the USPS: 100. (4) Free distribution outside the mail (by carriers or other means): 1. (e) Total free distribution (sum of d) 970. (f) Total distribution (sum of c and e) 29,830. (g) Copies not distributed: 14,395. (b) Total (sum of f and g): 44,225. Percent paid and/or requested circulation (c divided by h times 100): 96.75%.

66 Volume 35 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Nov. Dec 11_SI new design masters 9/27/11 12:44 PM Page 67

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Casanova 430, Lima 14, Peru www.chicagoskeptics.com president. PO Box 5122 New York, NY Tel.: 916 489-1774. Email: terry@sand- [email protected]. PO Box 111794, email: [email protected] KENTUCKY 10185. www.nycskeptics.org bek.com Carrollton, TX 75011-1794. POLAND Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York www.ntskeptics.org San Diego Asso ciation for Rational Inquiry Lokal Biurowy No. 8, 8 Sapiezynska Sr., and Skep tics (KASES) Kentucky. 880 (ISUNY) Upper New York. Michael Sofka, 8 (SDARI) President: Paul Wenger. Tel.: 858- VIRGINIA 00-215, Warsaw, Poland Albany Road, Lexing ton, KY 40502. Providence St., Albany, NY 12203 292-5635. Program/general information Contact Fred Bach at Email: fredw- Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., ROMANIA 619-421-5844. www.sdari.org. [email protected]; www.kases.org; Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old Fundatia Centrul pentru Constiinta Critica Postal ad dress: PO Box 623, La Jolla, CA or (859) 276-3343 Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. Tel: Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., Norfolk, Tel.: (40)-(O)744-67-67-94 92038-0623 (315) 446-3068; Email: info@cnyskep- VA 23529 email: [email protected] LOUISIANA tics.org, cnyskeptics.org 201 Milnor Ave., COLORADO WASHINGTON RUSSIA Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Syracuse, NY 13224 The Denver Skeptics Meetup Group. Inquiry and Scientific Methods Society for Sensible Explan ations, Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin, 119899 Russia, Moscow, Elaine Gilman, President. Skype address: (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. OHIO Western Washington. Tad Cook, Secre tary. Vorobevy Gory, Moscow State Univ., elaine.gilman. 965 S. Miller Street, 302, Tel.: 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry Email: [email protected]. PO Box 45792, Philosophy Department Lakewood, CO 80226. (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, Seattle, WA 98145-0792 US. Baton Rouge, LA 70808 SENEGAL http://skeptics.meetup.com/131/ President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; Email: http://seattleskeptics.org PO Box 15376, Dakar – Fann, Senegal MICHIGAN [email protected]. PO Box 282069, CONNECTICUT PUERTO RICO Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michi- Columbus, OH 43228 Tel.: +221-501-13-00 New England Skeptical Society (NESS) gan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. Sociedad De Escépticos de Puerto New England. Steven Novella M.D., Presi- Tel.: 734-525-5731; Email: Skeptic31 South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland Rico, Luis R. Ramos, President. 2505 dent. Tel.: 203-281-6277; Email: @aol.com. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. and counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942- Parque Terra Linda, Trujillo Alto, Puerto [email protected]. 64 Cobblestone 103, West land, MI 48185-2366 5543; Email: [email protected]. PO Rico 00976. Tel: 787-396-2395; Email: Dr., Hamden, CT 06518 Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 [email protected]; Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Gary www.theness.com www.southshoreskeptics.org www.escepticor.com Barker. Tel.: 517-799-4502; Email: bark- [email protected]. 3596 Butternut St., Saginaw, MI 48604 The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org