17 December 1999 Vol 40 No 25 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 2 KENYA Sorry, wrong number Going for broke Civil service chief Leakey's anti-corruption drive could bring in just The bizarre saga of Kenya's cellular phone licences raises questions enough aid to rescue the government about the government's anti- Kenya is almost broke. And the International Monetary Fund, which has been expertly teased with corruption campaign. Although promises of reform by President ’s government several times before, is thinking officials claim the bidding about restarting the flow of aid. On 16 December, as we went to press, an IMF board meeting was was 'World Bank-monitored', some companies report gross to consider reopening negotiations (with several provisos) on US$175 million of low-interest credits irregularities and say the state has under its Poverty Reduction and Growth (formerly Structural Adjustment) facility. An IMF deal lost $50 million revenue. could trigger a further $250 mn. of credits from the World Bank and bilateral donors. The Fund’s Nairobi staff have sent a favourable report, and if the board says yes a mission from SOUTH AFRICA 3 headquarters in Washington will visit Kenya within a month. Aid could be resumed as early as next March, but negotiations are more likely to drag on until mid-year. Without help, the government Dealing with would probably default on several debts next year. If the IMF reopens its cash box, it will be a tribute to, and a boost for, Richard Leakey, the former wildlife director and opposition activist who was dissenters appointed by Moi as Head of the Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet on 23 July, bringing President Mbeki is piling on a team of other Kenyan professionals with him into senior civil service posts. pressure on Inkatha leader and Leakey has notched up some notable administrative reforms. British officials helped organise the Home Affairs Minister Buthelezi June meeting between Moi and World Bank President James Wolfensohn which led to Leakey’s and Democratic Party head . Buthelezi is in the ruling appointment. If Whitehall backs Kenya on the IMF board, the aid talks will get serious, and Kenya’s ANC's suffocating embrace, and diplomats, coordinated by Sally Kosgey, Permanent Secretary in the Foreign Ministry, have done under fire for ministerial errors. their best. Britain’s new Minister of State for Africa, Peter Hain, was (like Leakey) born in Kenya; Leon, spoiling for a debate with his trip there in October included a visit to the house where he lived as a child. Even Hain, who first Mbeki, is kept at arms' length. came to public notice as an anti- activist and is tough on corruption and human rights, may have been touched. Within days of his appointment in July, Vice-President had EQUATORIAL GUINEA 5 visited him to explain the bgorn-again Moi government’s reformist credentials. British officials remembered past promises broken, but also know that financial collapse could mean disaster for Obiang's heritage Kenya’s people. The government denies that President Obiang is gravely ill but Have you been Leakey-ed? recent sightings of him in Nigeria IMF credits were suspended two years ago, after the government failed to investigate seriously the show him thinner and more tired Goldenberg affair (in which more than $300 mn. of state funds were lost, with several senior officials than before. Obiang has confirmed implicated) and to close down its network of ‘extra-budgetary’ accounts. The Fund and the World visiting a renowned US clinic for a 'check-up'. Bank also pressed Nairobi to clean up the way it awards contracts, but questions are still being asked about recent deals, especially the award of the second mobile phone licence (see Box) and other parts of the proposed telecommunications privatisation. RWANDA 6 No one doubts Leakey’s energy and determination. He usually starts work at 6 am and is often there 15 hours later. He has subjected the corruption-riddled coffee and tea boards to a full audit for Advantage, Kigali the first time in years; several senior officials have since resigned. He has strengthened the Anti- At home an anti-corruption drive Corruption Authority, put a finance officer in each ministry to monitor spending, and restarted gathers pace; regionally, lack of privatisation. All of the Kenya Reinsurance Corporation and 35 per cent of Kenya Commercial Bank progress in tracking down are to be sold next year. genocidaires makes Congo peace prospects bleaker; and Kigali has Civil servants take Leakey seriously because he aims to cut the public payroll by a third, and has scored a win in its battle with the unearthed plenty of skullduggery: ‘Has your department been Leakeyed yet?’ civil servants ask each UN over the genocide tribunals. other. Those tempted to skim a contract or divert state funds to a relative’s account now face a real risk of being caught. Moi has told visitors that Leakey’s anti-corruption remit extends to the top. POINTERS 8 Asked if that includes Moi’s business-minded sons, Gideon and Philip, we hear that the President replied: ‘If there is evidence against them . . . they must be taught to behave’. South Africa/ But nobody knows how far up the political food chain Leakey’s power runs. Some hard-nosed ministers and deputies regard his appointment as a smart move by Moi’s tough ally, Nicholas Biwott Zimbabwe, Angola, - even though Leakey, whose first language was Kikuyu, is not an obvious ally for Moi’s friends. Uganda and ACP/EU Kenya needs aid, and if anybody could persuade the donors to unblock it, Leakey is the man. Yet his supporters foretold a purge of old-guard ministers and a merging of ministries when Moi 17 December 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 25

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To enliven Kenya’s official anti-corruption campaign comes the bizarre fixed its cellular phone strategy. Leakey’s team’s failure to stop the saga of the cellular telephone licences. The licence to operate a second licence going cheap shows its political limits. cellular system was awarded last month to a consortium led by Biwott insisted that the announcement, made five months earlier Vivendi, an ambitious French sewerage contractor, and Kenya’s than scheduled, proved that the government was serious about Sameer Investments. The Vivendi-Sameer consortium bid just US$55 privatising telecommunications but ministers are refusing to answer million for its licence. Two competitors submitted bids, for $94 mn. questions in parliament about the award. Naikuni and his Minister, and $120 mn. On the face of it, that cost the Treasury about $50 mn. Wycliffe , have now set up a tribunal to investigate The all-powerful Trade and Industry Minister, Nicholas Biwott, who complaints, both from major companies eliminated in the early stages has taken a very close interest in the matter describes the award as of the competition, such as Deutsche Telekom and Malaysia Telecom, ‘ for Kenya’. and from five of the short-listed companies. The complainants hope It is surely good for Vivendi (with 40 per cent of the new company, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank will use their Kencell) and Sameer and a cluster of unnamed local interests (60 per leverage over aid funds to insist that the pre-qualification and bidding cent). Apart from an apparent $50 mn. discount on the licence, Kencell rounds are re-run according to international competitive standards. should earn a minimum $50 mn. a year. The local Managing Director We hear that all six short-listed companies had recruited senior of Sameer, Naushad Merali, is regarded as a competent and serious politicians, formally and informally, into their consortia. In one businessman whose career took off after he bought Firestone East consortium, United States’ GTE joined forces with Egypt’s Orascom Africa. His Sameer Investments has a nominal capital of KShs10 mn. and the Kenyan Flying Academy (which has good contacts with the ($133,000); the majority of its equity is controlled by an investment Biwott family). We hear that competition among Kenya’s elite for syndicate, Yana Developers Ltd. Another syndicate, Yana Investments, participation in the phone licences was so intense that Intelligence and Sameer hold equity in local banks. There is deep interest in the Director Wilson Boinet found it necessary to tap the telephones of the identity of the senior political figures linked to these syndicates. main contenders, as well as Biwott’s. A considerable chilliness has Vivendi has just paid $510 mn. for a second mobile phone operating developed between the two since then. licence in Egypt. Officials at the Communications Commission of Orascom insist that GTE came under political pressure to withdraw Kenya had confidently predicted that their second cellular licence from the race and so sabotage their higher $94 mn. bid. Another would raise at least $100 mn. Neguib Sawiri, Chairman of a rival powerful contender was the consortium of France-Télécom, IPS bidder, Orascom, confronted the CCK chairman, Samuel Chepkong’a, Diamond Trust and Jubilee Insurance (the latter is run by Amin Juma, at the public announcement: ‘You have just rejected a bid of $94 mn. an Asian businessman close to Kenyan intelligence). South Africa’s How can you throw away this kind of money?’ This murky affair is a MTN, in partnership with Scandinavia’s Telia and Kenya’s Triton, great embarrassment to the World Bank. Government officials were convinced they had won the contract. Not only had they got repeatedly claim the tendering process was ‘World Bank-monitored’. Moi’s sons Gideon and Philip involved, they also seemed to have Unsuccessful bidders say that is patently untrue. Yet the Bank has not inside information about their rivals’ bids. The award announcement yet disavowed the government claims, indeed it has had nothing for Vivendi rendered MTN executives speechless with rage. substantial to say at all on the controversial award. The row over the second cellular licence could damage the prospects The row also embarrasses the respected Permanent Secretary at the of selling a stake in Safaricom (holders of the first cellular licence) Transport and Communications Ministry, Titus Naikuni. He replaced which is jointly owned by Presidential son Gideon and the state’s Biwott’s long-time ally, Stanley Morage, as part of the ‘recovery Telkom Kenya. Britain’s Vodafone was set to buy a 49 per cent stake team’ under civil service chief Richard Leakey, to clean up the in the ailing Safaricom, which has a reputation for high prices and poor notoriously non-transparent telecommunications sector and speed its service. But we hear that the manipulations over the second licence are privatisation. By the time Naikuni was appointed, the government had making Vodafone think again.

reshuffled his government on 6 September (AC Vol 40 No 18). In where Leakey appointed a new chief executive, Joseph Munene - the event the entire cast of ministers was retained, and the donors’ who resigned last week, under pressure from vested interests who chief target, Biwott, was promoted from the East Africa Cooperation manipulated political protests against him. His successor, Brown portfolio to Tourism, Trade and Industry. Leakey insisted that the Ondego, is also keen to cut the graft but is taking a much-higher reshuffle would still improve financial control. Although the profile. It is not easy to recruit honest Kenyan professionals to the ministers kept their ministerial titles, the number of ministries was public service, where the pay is bad and would-be reformers may cut to 15 from 28. Now each has its budget controls. face threats of violence. The ‘economic recovery team’ has already won some victories. The government’s worst performance has been its handling of Several heads of parastatal companies and senior police officers the famine in North-East Province. Local officials and aid agencies have been sacked for ‘governance’ offences. Six accountants in the say that more than 35,000 lives are at risk in Keelang alone. Most Office of the President have been arrested by the fraud unit of the of Turkana hasn’t had rain for three years, and disaster was Criminal Investigation Department, and detectives are investigating predicted there a year ago. But officials in the Office of the the Ministries of Roads and of Public Works. Late last month President insisted that they had allocated enough money for maize Leakey stopped Samuel Gichuru, Managing Director of the Kenya and that the situation was under control. Power & Lighting Company and an old ally of Trade and Industry Far from it. Hopelessly inadequate deliveries were delayed by Minister Nicholas Biwott, importing new generating plant. Gichuru transport breakdowns. Much food aid was stolen by local officials, was claiming that extra generators were needed to compensate for who diverted maize to traders in Eldoret and Kitale, who sold it to a shortfall of hydro-electric power - but it has been raining heavily millers. One food consignment was held up for days, until Shariff for a month, and the dams’ supply is improving. Nassir, the Minister of State responsible for famine relief in the Things went less well at the notorious Kenya Ports Authority, President’s Office, arrived with a state television crew to record his 2 17 December 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 25 kindly hand-outs. He denies there is a famine: to journalists asking politicians in the country. Biwott is also unpopular in the army, the him why people in Turkana were dying, Nassir replied: ‘It is one Kenyan institution where he hasn’t made many inroads. He may because they follow water for long distances, they become tired . be the only one to believe he could follow Moi, whose final term . . it is fatigue which kills them and not hunger.’ expires in 2002; even so his grip on security and business will make Beyond corruption and mismanagement, the chaotic response to him a big man in the new era. the Turkana famine has deeper causes. The Kenya National Activists of the ruling Kenya African National Union are no Produce and Cereal Board (KNPCB) has been appallingly managed. longer sure that Biwott will help Vice-President Saitoti to follow Graft has destroyed the storage and distribution systems. Grain Moi into the presidency. There has been a falling out between needed locally has been exported by officials and their relatives. Biwott and Saitoti, formerly the pillars of the KANU ‘B’ group. Farmers are unwilling to sell maize to the KNPCB this year, Saitoti shunned Biwott during the latter’s political exile and the because it offers KShs400 (US$5.40) a bag, while Tanzanian Ouko affair. Some say Biwott was secretly irritated that Saitoti traders offer KShs2000. Some suspect that senior officials are survived his no-confidence vote in parliament on 30 June. But deliberately encouraging depopulation of the North Rift Valley ethnic politics help explain the split. Saitoti, who used to bill himself and Frontier districts, earmarked for exploration by international as Maasai a decade ago, has been talking up his Kikuyu allegiances oil companies. There are rumours of shadowy local consortia, recently - presumably to win support from the populous Central and linked to powerful local politicians, negotiating land-use deals Nairobi provinces, whose Kikuyu majority wants to see a home-boy with foreign oilmen. in the top job again. The famine highlights the nation’s crisis. For years Kenya has Biwott, a Kalenjin (Geiyo) may fear the fate that met the Anglophile prided itself on being the centre for relief operations in countries Kikuyu lawyer Charles Njonjo, chief engineer of Moi’s succession such as Somalia and Sudan. But aid agencies and international to the Presidency after the death of founding President Mzee Jomo organisations no longer see Kenya as a safe place with a working Kenyatta in 1978. Once Moi was firmly in the seat, Njonjo was infrastructure. Police corruption and rising unemployment are dumped and accused of treason. Only in the last year has Njonjo driving up crime. Leakey and his reformers will make little been brought back into the presidential circle, and Leakey has had headway without an economic upturn. One of their business him made chairman of the Lands Commission. supporters, asked about plan ‘B’ if the IMF and the World Bank If Moi and Biwott are losing enthusiasm for a Saitoti succession, refuse to turn the aid taps on again, replies: ‘There is no plan ‘B’ what are they planning? The notion of changing the constitution to and that’s worrying’. allow Moi another term has been floated by ultra-loyalists such as Nassir, Hoseah Kiplagat, presidential son Gideon, and Mark arap Keeping a straight face on corruption Too. But it would require all the KANU votes in parliament, plus Yet Biwott goes on accusing donors of hypocrisy, complaining that those of at least 40 opposition MPs, to produce the necessary two- they change their conditions each time the government meets their thirds majority. In fact the the tortuous debate on Kenya’s demands. He insists that Moi will not be bullied by donors into constitutional reform is going the other way. Most parliamentarians, making ‘sacrificial lambs of high-ranking officials’ accused of in both KANU and the opposition, want the President’s powers graft - adding, with a straight face, that corruption is ‘an evil curtailed and parliament’s increased. By mid-December, the consuming Africa’. constitutional debate has reached stalemate with oppositionists calling Biwott is a multi-millionaire, with interests in banking, oil, for a return to street protests Several other options are aired in the property and telecommunications. His position at the hub of President’s circle. One is a business ticket - Biwott for president and government and business is more powerful than ever. Biwott’s a Kikuyu for vice-president- enticing Kikuyu in Central Province name was crossed off Western diplomats’ guest lists, and vanished and Nairobi back into KANU. A more plausible idea is to go along from official Kenyan delegations, after Scotland Yard Detective, with opposition plans, strengthen the premiership, and make sure John Troon, examined allegations of his involvement in the that Biwott gets elected prime minister. Whichever they go for, the murder (and its cover-up) of the Foreign Minister, . State House political persuaders have a busy two years ahead. Biwott was sacked from his job as Industry Minister then arrested and detained from September to December 1991. Kenya’s Department of Public Prosecutions said there was not enough SOUTH AFRICA evidence to link him to the Ouko murder. Now Biwott is back and more powerful than ever. He sticks close to Moi, even on the presidential swing through Europe in late Dealing with dissenters October. His message to diplomats was: ‘If you want to talk to Moi, you have to talk through me, Biwott.’ He sticks close to Leakey, President Mbeki is hugging some of his too, following him to the IMF and World Bank meeting in enemies - and shunning others Washington in September, where he put in a cameo appearance at A ruling party with a huge majority may not really need to crush its the governors’ opening reception. He has now taken to telephoning political opponents. Yet President is squeezing as Leakey to enquire about his health. Our sources indicate that hard as he can the only possible rivals to his African National Leakey’s health is remarkably robust, given that he lost both legs Congress - Chief Mangosuthu (Gatsha) Buthelezi of the (mainly when his light aircraft mysteriously crashed on takeoff in 1994. Zulu) , which has 34 seats in parliament, and Some businesspeople and donors are resigned to Biwott’s political Tony Leon of the (mainly white) Democratic Party, with 38 seats. primacy for two more years, and maybe more: ‘Whatever you think Buthelezi is Minister of Home Affairs, Leon is formally leader of the about his record, he’s probably Kenya’s most effective minister. opposition. He’s bright and he gets things done’, according to one. But a recent To Buthelezi, Mbeki applies the old mafia adage: ‘Keep your poll in the Daily Nation found he was one of the most unpopular friends close but keep your enemies even closer’. While Nelson

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Mandela was still President, officials in both the ANC and Inkatha international organised crime, claiming that South Africa is a believed that a merger was about to be negotiated. That never popular destination for both. happened and now ANC-Inkatha relations are worsening again. ANC militants in kwaZulu-Natal were frustrated when, just after Buthelezi is rattled; he has been accused of ‘utter incompetence’ in the party was unbanned in 1990, Mandela began to woo Buthelezi. running the Home Affairs Ministry, over which he has presided The Inkatha leader accepted three cabinet seats in the ANC-led since Inkatha was given three cabinet seats in 1994; Mbeki and his Government of National Unity but remained fractious. Mbeki and ANC colleagues are building up the pressure. (now Deputy President and an ANC Zulu) kept Buthelezi has tried to evade responsibility for his Ministry’s Buthelezi happy by appointing him to act as President when both faults. Mbeki asked him to keep his job but imposed on him a Mandela and Mbeki were abroad: he did so eleven times, for a few strong new Director General, Billy Masethla, former head of the days each time, and during one of his stints the South African South African Secret Service (SASS), the foreign intelligence Defence Force disastrously invaded Lesotho. organisation. Masethla led uprisings in Soweto in 1976, then During this year’s election campaign, it was widely believed that joined the ANC and Mbeki’s circle in exile. His appointment in Mbeki would offer Buthelezi one of the two deputy presidencies; mid-December almost ruptured relations between Mbeki and Buthelezi believed it, too. Inkatha then won a majority of seats in Buthelezi, who is likely to swallow his pride and stay in the cabinet. kwaZulu-Natal and the ANC asked Buthelezi to cede the premiership to an ANC nominee. Fearing Buthelezi would trade the provincial Gatsha under fire premiership for a deputy presidency, Inkatha activists urged him to Buthelezi’s capitulation will help to end Inkatha’s role as a disruptive say ‘no’. So when Mbeki announced his cabinet in mid-June, Zuma political force, perhaps as any force at all. One of his colleagues got the deputy presidency and Buthelezi was back at Home Affairs, said recently that the party was ‘dying quickly and quietly’. saying he’d prefer another portfolio. Political violence, which claimed over 20,000 lives in kwaZulu- He could have left cabinet then; he’s 70, has diabetes and (say Natal from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, has declined, and senior colleagues) is ‘tired’. Haphazard post-election arrangements Inkatha’s military challenge to the ANC looks almost over. confirmed Buthelezi had been destined for a deputy presidency, The crisis in the Home Affairs Ministry was prompted by Jakkie remodelled into a largely ceremonial post with a staff headed by a Cilliers, Executive Director of the Pretoria-based Institute for deputy DG answering to the DG in Mbeki’s office, the Reverend Security Studies, who wrote in the Johannesburg daily Business Frank Chikane. Buthelezi’s Zulu rebellion looks over. His Day: ‘The Minister is either completely and utterly incompetent or successors could resume the fight by other means. he has no interest in his department. In either case, Buthelezi Mbeki has dealt no less successfully with the official opposition, should be removed and redeployed to an area where he can do less the Democratic Party. With eleven opposition parties in the damage’. Hundreds of residence and work permit applications National Assembly, the ANC’s only regular critic is the DP, whose have not been been dealt with since June’s elections, many of them leader, Leon, is spoiling for a fight. Mbeki won’t come out of his from foreigners whose skills are badly needed. BMW, one of the corner, though. Frustrated, Leon complains the President hasn’t biggest and most prestigious foreign investors, had a set of granted him a slanging match across the Assembly floor, leaving applications delayed for months. him to face Deputy President Zuma, an uninspired debater. The DP Buthelezi blamed his deputy, Lindiwe Sisulu, to whom (he said) claims Mbeki is steering South Africa towards autocracy; the ANC he had delegated all ‘migration functions’ till June. Since the calls the DP ‘racist’. elections, no one had been running that section and matters got even worse. Buthelezi insisted he had only recently found out Liberal enemies about the problems and promised to end the chaos. Yet whistle- Just as poisonous are the battles between the ANC and some white blowing officials say the department has been chaotic and seething liberals, such as John Kane-Berman, chief of the SA Institute of with animosities for several years. Some foreigners known to have Race Relations, and R.W. Johnson, Director of the Helen Suzman shady backgrounds have been given citizenship or permanent Foundation and occasional correspondent of The Times of London. residence, while highly skilled foreigners or bona fide migrants They accuse Mbeki of rejecting the idea of a loyal opposition and have waited for months without response. are smarting because three of their club - Allister Sparks, Raymond In October, a Labour Court judge found the Ministry’s Director Louw (both former editors of the famous old Rand Daily Mail) and General, Albert Moekana, guilty of misconduct. He resigned and John Matisson have been left out of the new twelve-member board relations between Buthelezi and his deputy Sisulu worsened further. of the state-owned SA Broadcasting Corporation. Sisulu (Mbeki’s ANC nominee) was sparring with Deputy Director A recent ANC discussion paper said the power of the ‘English General Khulu Mbatha (a Buthelezi nominee). Buthelezi had liberal section’, exercised mainly through business, capital and the blocked Sisulu from appointing as her special advisor Elsabe media, hadn’t been significantly reduced. True, perhaps, but the Wessels, wife of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Minister English-speakers’ role in politics is ebbing as fast as Inkatha’s. Mohamed Valli Moosa. He accused Sisulu, who was herself The ANC objects to white liberal claims to the moral high ground involved in exile in ANC intelligence, of lobbying for Masethla as and constant sniping at corruption, maladministration, nepotism DG. and the other usual sins of a dominant party. Aggressive politics ANC insiders questioned Buthelezi’s retaining as his own special enabled Leon to boost the DP from seven to 38 members of advisor a shadowy Italian-American, Mario Oriani-Ambrosini. parliament in June, when tens of thousands of Afrikaner voters Then Buthelezi lashed out at Mbeki for deploying a ‘trained spy’, deserted the New National Party for the DP. Now it needs both Masethla, in his department. Mbeki and his advisors want Home black support and tactics to counter Mbeki’s disdainful dismissal Affairs to be turned into a ‘security department’, tightly controlled of it as a political force. and in step with South Africa’s economic policy. Intelligence The ANC has 266 seats. With 38 seats, the DP (supported mostly appraisals emphasise the dangers of illegal migration and by whites, coloureds and Indians) is the official opposition. Inkatha,

4 17 December 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 25 with 34, must count as part of the government. Next comes the 1979. His opponents insist that he has cancer of the prostate, for disintegrating NNP, which stood for apartheid and has 28 seats. which he has sought treatment unsuccessfully in France, Morocco Several opposition parties say they want alliances; the most and China. Deputy Prime Minister Miguel Oyono Ndong Mifumu significant one would be between the DP and the mainly Xhosa says such claims are ‘false and mischievous’. In September, United Democratic Movement, with 14 seats. The UDM is led by though, Obiang Nguema confirmed reports in the Spanish media , former military dictator of the Transkei homeland that he had visited the famous Mayo clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, (then expelled from the ANC for accusing a cabinet colleague of whose specialities include cancer, HIV and heart ailments. A corruption). The UDM and DP would make a credible if ill- series of tests showed that ‘basically, everything is fine’, said assorted 52-member multiracial opposition bloc. Obiang. The ANC has used its huge majority to stop the DP from chairing Obiang has no heir apparent and his sudden departure could lead parliamentary committees that oversee legislation. It has to a long and strenuous power struggle. Oil companies and manoeuvred the DP members off two bodies which the party had neighbouring states look on with mounting concern. The United used effectively - the Judicial Service Commission, which appoints States’ oil major Mobil is approaching completion of a billion- judges (DP deputy leader Douglas Gibson was ousted but a seat dollar development programme in the Zafiro field, which will was found for the ANC’s arch-critic, Louis Luyt, of the SA Rugby boost Equatorial Guinea’s production to at least 120,000 barrels Board) and the Parliamentary Finance Committee (from the chair per day (b/d) during 2000. Triton Energy, also American, was of which the DP’s Ken Andrew was ousted). Mbeki has moved the discussing contractual issues with the Malabo government in presidency to Pretoria and rarely attends parliament. By convention, London at the end of November; its development proposals follow opposition leaders discuss national issues with the President but September’s discovery of the potentially huge Ceiba field, which Leon and Mbeki have not met since the elections. Instead, Mbeki has generated lively new interest in the burgeoning oil sector. is wooing two weaklings, the NNP and the incoherent Pan Africanist Congress. Regional rivals Colin Eglin, the DP’s former leader and now a back-bench MP, The oil beneath the sea has involved Equatorial Guinea in ever says the ANC has set out to ‘denigrate and demonise’ the DP for sharper disputes with its neighbours over maritime boundaries. four reasons: After December’s talks in Nigeria, both sides expressed confidence ● in reaction to the DP’s campaign against corruption, rising crime that a technical commission would complete its work by February. and lack of jobs; Relations with Gabon, which has a long-standing claim to the ● the tripartite alliance of ANC-SA Communist Party-Congress of Corisco islands, remain wary. Tension with Cameroon has SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) is ‘deeply divided’, so Mbeki needs ‘a increased since June, when Malabo protested to the International cause around which the factions can unite’; Court of Justice in The Hague about Yaoundé’s claim to territorial ● the ANC, aware of its failures, is becoming more sensitive to waters around Bioko island. Gabon’s President Omar Bongo, criticism; currently suffering from embarrassing revelations about his private ● the ANC ‘is starting to develop a lust for power’, with tentacles banking arrangements (AC Vol 40 No 23), also has an interest in ‘reaching far into all spheres of government and of civil society’. oil to the south of Bioko; he hosts many Equatorian dissidents in Yet the DP’s performance since the elections has been Libreville (most of the rest are in Madrid and Berlin). ‘underwhelming’, according to one of its leaders. Its new Hoping to calm the regional climate, Nigeria has pushed for a parliamentarians lack experience, there has been little new Gulf of Guinea Commission to be set up. On 19 November, eight legislation for the opposition to criticise and the ANC leader down- states (Cameroon, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, São Tomé plays parliament. Meanwhile, police are investigating DP e Príncipe, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo-Kinshasa and Angola) allegations that its main offices were under 24-hour surveillance by approved a draft declaration favouring such a forum. Cameroonian sophisticated electronic lasers and telephone bugs. DP loyalists officials, though, fear the Commission could turn into a device for ask who would have the motive or the resources to bug their offices Nigerian expansionism and want to limit its powers. Prospective other than the government? Who indeed? members have until November to ratify the treaty, which even then may prove no more than a talking shop. Obiang is the absolute ruler of his country and nobody can be EQUATORIAL GUINEA sure whether he will be in charge next November. His capital is thick with rumours about what might happen should he suddenly die. The constitution provides for the President of the National Obiang's heritage Assembly, the Cámara de Representantes del Pueblo, to take over, pending fresh elections. He is former Health Minister Dario Succession talk could spark political change Tadeo Ndong Olomo. However, the constitution is not always in Africa's newest emirate respected in Equatorial Guinea, which embraced its own form of The government goes on denying that the President is gravely ill multi-partyism in 1992. but speculation continues. When President Teodoro Obiang Family contenders for the leadership include Obiang’s two Nguema Mbasogo met his Nigerian counterpart, Olusegun eldest sons, the favoured but unpredictable Teodorín and the more Obasanjo, on 4 December, officials were shocked at his obvious astute Gabriel, who were promoted to minister of state and minister decline. Oil executives, who met Obiang a month ago, say that he respectively in a government reshuffle in July. Neither has much seemed cheerful but was much thinner and that he tired faster than support in the ruling Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial last year. (PDGE) nor, more significantly, in the President’s Esangui clan, Obiang has dominated political life in Equatorial Guinea since which has been the focus of power since Independence from Spain he seized power from his uncle, Francisco Macías Nguema, in in 1968. Obiang’s closest security advisers include his brother,

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Armengol Nguema Mbasogo Ondo, who with his fearsome a genocide survivor, has also given warning that apologies from the reputation (his nickname is ‘El Mono ’ - the devil) may want the UN are not enough at this stage. leadership for himself. Obiang’s half-brother, António Mba Tribunal insiders acknowledge its flaws, including a woeful lack Nguema Mikue, is Chief of Police and a weighty figure. Obiang’s of communications, highlighted in February when the demoralised uncle, Manuel Nguema Mba, nicknamed ‘El Nervio’ (‘the Guiding ICTR Prosecutor’s Office in Kigali had to explain to the government Spirit’) is Deputy Director of National Security, which may be the and journalists why Bernard Ntuyahaga, a former logistics chief best place for a move on the presidency. and key genocide suspect, had been released by the Tribunal If the ruling family fails to agree swiftly on its candidate, a Registrar’s Office in Arusha. Tanzania promptly rearrested him challenge might come from the conservatives, with whom Obiang but has not yet handed him over. has fallen out since oil was found in 1991. They include former Education Minister Felipe Ondo Obiang Alogo and former Barayagwiza's loophole Planning Minister Guillermo Nguema Ela Mangue Ndong, Barayagwiza, a co-founder of the infamous Hutu hate radio station, founder of the clandestine Fuerza Democrática Republicana (FDR). Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) was to have Given the present ruler's grip on power, only a prolonged and faced a ‘media mega-trial’ in Arusha, alongside RTLM’s leading inconclusive struggle among them could benefit radical opposition ideologue, Ferdinand Nahimana, and Hassan Ngeze, editor of groups such as the Convergencia para la Democracia Social the extremist paper Kangura. Barayagwiza, with eleven other (CPDS) or the separatist Movimiento de Autodeterminación de la suspects, was arrested in Cameroon in March 1996 and transferred Isla de Bioko (MAIB). That uncertain prospect or the possible to Arusha in November 1997. The Appeal Chamber ruled that due emergence of a more insular and reactionary government leaves procedures had not been followed in Cameroon, where the suspect neighbouring states and the oil companies hoping for Obiang’s was not informed of the charges against him; that could apply to survival, if not until his present term ends in 2003, at least until a other suspects, including Nahimana and the detained military more tranquil succession can be arranged. supremo, Théoneste Bagasora. The Appeal Chamber could yet accept new evidence, Del Ponte has said, allowing Barayagwiza’s prosecution in Arusha. RWANDA Meanwhile, Kigali has requested that he be transferred to Rwanda rather than Cameroon, promising he will not be executed if convicted. As the row was raging, President Pasteur Bizimungu Advantage, Kigali and the Vice-President, Major General Paul Kagame, were reshuffling their ministers and officials again. The 3 December The government has won its latest row with cabinet meeting appointed Mike Rwigema as Presidential Advisor the UN over genocide trials for International Cooperation and Amstel Kibugenza as Private Secretary to the Minister of Internal Security. Tracking down the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide continues to Most other departures and arrivals were in the wake of the dominate Rwandan politics. At home, an anti-corruption drive is government’s latest anti-corruption campaign. The departed running alongside fresh allegations of complicity in the genocide ministers are Anastase Gasana, Minister of Institutional Affairs in against some senior officials; in the region, peace prospects in the President’s Office, and Social Affairs Minister Charles Congo-Kinshasa are bleaker, with President Laurent-Désiré Ntakirutinka. In October, the Transitional National Assembly Kabila’s government making no apparent effort to comply with the (TNA) voted no confidence in both; a parliamentary commission Lusaka agreements on handing over genocide suspects. found they had encouraged a vehicle deal which led to the Internationally, Kigali’s relations with the United Nations remain government paying a million US dollars in compensation to fractious after a public row with the hapless International Criminal businessman Jean-de-Dieu Nsengiyunva. Marc Rugenera, Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR, AC Vol 40 No 6). Finance Minister at the time, narrowly escaped a no-confidence The Kigali government suspended all cooperation with the ICTR vote and hung on as Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism. on 7 November after the Appeal Chamber in The Hague annulled Gasana, who served as Foreign Minister before and after the the indictment and ordered the release of Jean-Bosco Barayagwiza, genocide of 1994, has hinted at a conspiracy against him. He has a leading genocide suspect. Kigali initially withheld a visa from long opposed his fellow Hutu, Prime Minister Pierre-Célestin the UN Prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, who is considered as Rwigema, particularly over the running of the main Hutu party, the unsympathetic to Kigali's cause as Secretary General Kofi Annan Mouvement Démocratique Rwandais (MDR). Ntakirutinka and and Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson. A cabinet Rugenera are also Hutu moderates who were politically active meeting on 3 December agreed to lift the visa ban on Del Ponte. under the late President Juvénal Habyarimana. In the meantime, the affair had became a public-relations disaster TNA Speaker Joseph Sebarenzi Kabuye denies that the house for the ICTR when the UN Appeal Chamber decided to release (composed of party nominees rather than elected deputies) has Barayagwiza ‘with prejudice to the prosecution’ (i.e. he could not shown bias and claims it’s finding its teeth. The clean-up appears be tried twice for the same offence) just as a Tribunal mission was to have been sanctioned by Kagame, who has been sensitive to in Rwanda, investigating massacres in Kibuye in the west. Three corruption allegations since facing citizens’ questions at a series of months ago, the ICTR outgoing Prosecutor, Louise Arbour, had recent televised public meetings in Kigali. Most criticism has been made a successful valedictory visit to Kigali, asking the government levelled at the old guard but his many foreign friends were surprised for new pledges of cooperation. Fresh criticism from Kigali has to hear that the young and impressive Patrick Mazimhaka, Minister been led by the newly appointed Prosecutor General, Gerald in the President’s Office and a senior foreign policy advisor, was Gahima, a longtime scourge of Arusha since the Tribunal began in questioned about the disappearance of funds while he was in charge November 1994. Justice Minister Jean-de-Dieu Mucyo, himself at the now defunct Ministry of Reintegration and Rehabilitation.

6 17 December 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 25

from the antagonists and an end to ‘hostile rhetoric’. Rwanda has generally stayed clear of the propaganda war, leaving its protégé, Off-side the Goma-based wing of the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Vice-President Paul Kagame is said to be seething after four of Démocratie (RCD), to make endless accusations of ceasefire Rwanda’s best footballers, including team Captain Jean-Paul violations by Kabila and his allies. Nsengiyunva, absconded while on tour in Germany. Kagame had The main RCD spokesperson has been Kin-Kiey Mulumba, been keen on the trip, a reward for victory in a regional soccer formerly Mobutu Sese Seko’s information chief and a Reuters’ tournament in August. The players were carefully warned to be on stringer, whose flood of frontline despatches have failed to convince their best behaviour during their friendly fixtures in the Rhineland- international opinion of the RCD position. Rwanda has not Palatinate, which is twinned with Rwanda. After a disappointing supported assertions by RCD President Emile Ilunga that Uganda start, the tour picked up with a 6-0 win over Bitburg, after which the has now allied with Kabila or by Vice-President Jean-Pierre players are said to have disappeared from a party organised by the Ondekane that his forces had preempted an Interahamwé offensive Rwandan Football Federation. They are now thought to be in Belgium, while a Rwandan woman based in Germany is helping the on Goma, Gisenyi and Ruhengeri. German police with their enquiries. There are now hints of a rebel rapprochement; both wings of the RCD and Jean-Pierre Bemba’s Uganda-backed Mouvement de Libération Congolais (MLC) want Nelson Mandela as mediator We are told, however, that Mazimhaka’s position isn’t in danger. in Congo’s long-awaited national debate. A Uganda-Rwanda The parliamentary commission is more concerned about the summit in Kabale on 8 November supposedly resolved strategic ‘schoolgate’ scandal. A loan of US$26.9 million by the World differences and Rwanda has welcomed the removal from operations Bank’s soft-loan arm, the International Development Association, in Congo of the Ugandan Chief of Staff, Brigadier James Kazini, back in 1993 has never been accounted for and four education whom Rwanda blamed for the battle between the allies at Kisangani ministers have been asked to explain how the money disappeared in August. Ousted RCD President Ernest Wamba dia Wamba has in abortive construction projects. Among those criticised is Prime modified his criticism of former RCD colleagues but is not ready Minister Rwigema, who served briefly as Education Minister after for an alliance. There is little sign of a common agenda. 1994 and is accused of using Ministry funds to establish two Despite denials from Bujumbura and Kigali, Rwanda’s army private schools in his home region, Gitarama. Some of his former may be busy elsewhere. There are continuing reports that Rwandan MDR colleagues have, moreover, hinted at some political offences. troops have joined their Burundian colleagues in operations against The judicial authorities confirm they have a file on the Premier but Interahamwé guerrillas (now sponsored by Kinshasa, it seems) refuse to give details. said to have been active in the western province of Bujumbura Another former Education Minister, Colonel Joseph Karemera, Rurale. President Pierre Buyoya’s government claims to have a stalwart of the ruling Front Patriotique Rwandais and now proof of cooperation between Rwandan Hutu rebels and their Ambassador to South Africa, is also under pressure. Some Burundian counterparts, particularly the Forces pour la Défense de Assembly members say the ‘schoolgate’ commission, headed by la Démocratie (FDD) and the Parti pour la Libération du Peuple another FPR veteran, Major Rose Kabuye, was far more critical of Hutu (Palipéhutu). Survivors of recent attacks have talked of Rwigema than of Karemera, noting that Kabuye herself faced rebels speaking Kinyarwanda. allegations of corruption, which were subsequently dropped, when Rwanda has not publicly defended Burundi’s much criticised she was Prefect of Kigali. policy of herding thousands of Hutu peasants into ‘regroupment Finance Minister Donald Kaberuka’s budget highlighted the camps’. In north-west Rwanda last year, a drive to remove the anti-corruption campaign and hit hard at ‘prestige spending’. He Interahamwé from the hills was accompanied by similar mass cut second cars for ministers, put their houses up for auction and concentrations and Rwanda has since embarked on a large-scale announced the closure of half of Rwanda’s 21 missions abroad. village-building programme there. This might increase food Yet he still rebuffs donors’ queries on military expenditure (still production and help restore security for now but many of the officially a mere 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product), saying villages are likely to prove unviable in the medium term. Yet like that national sovereignty and security will not be compromised. so much else in Rwanda, medium-term development plans are There have long been rumours of contributions by parastatal several rungs down the ladder from security interests. companies to an independent Congo war chest and there are now hints of ‘voluntary war contributions’, with the TNA ready to take the lead in legislating for these. Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at 73 Unlike Uganda (AC Vol 40 No 18) or Zimbabwe, Rwanda has Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Tel: +44 171-831 3511. Fax: +44 171-831 6778. faced little pressure from the Bank and Fund to explain its activities Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. in Congo-K. Yet donors fear Kagame’s determination to keep Administration: Clare Tauben. North and South Kivu secure could mean an expensive, indefinite commitment. They could step up the pressure if Rwanda were seen Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: UK: £250 Europe: £250 to sabotage the Lusaka peace agreement, which it seems to accept Africa: £233 US:$628 (including Airmail) for as long as is convenient, while keeping the military option open. Rest of the World: £325 Mazimhaka recently led a delegation to Harare, urging President Students (with proof): £75 or US$124 All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Robert Mugabe to restrain Kabila. American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. On 9 December, two top United States’ officials, the Assistant Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 Secretary of State for African Affairs, Susan Rice, and the 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 Ambassador to the UN, Richard Holbrooke, arrived in Kigali, to Visit our web site at: http://www.Africa-Confidential.com Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts,UK. help keep the Lusaka process on track. Rice used a live television ISSN 0044-6483 phone-in from the State Department to ask for more commitment 7 17 December 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 25

Lusaka peace accord in the DRC. Or Harare of the plane were caked in thick mud, indicating Pointers could drop Rautenbach quickly and, along with the plane had been on a dirt strip. It has since Kabila’s ministers, start to unravel the complex emerged that senior Ugandan officials were web of interests and equity stakes that link the linked to this plane, which had been hired SOUTH AFRICA/ ZIMBABWE Rautenbach empire with Congo’s principal through Meridian Air in Kenya. mining houses via a number of secret entities in HRW also noted that a plane on a United the British Virgin Islands and discretionary Nations’ list of Angolan sanctions-busters, Busting Billy trusts on the Channel Island of Jersey. Interocean Airways, run by a South African, Andrew Smullan, was leased to the Ugandan The South African police investigation into Airforce in 1998. Kampala has been Zimbabwean entrepreneur Billy Rautenbach ANGOLA downplaying such reports. In November, risks escalating into a diplomatic clash between Uganda’s respected military intelligence chief, Pretoria and Harare. Rautenbach is a close Lieutenant Colonel Noble Mayombo, led a associate of Zimbabwe’s Justice Minister Readjusted delegation to Luanda to explain why such Emmerson Mnangagwa and is held up as a key sanctions-busting planes had Ugandan The loss of six zeros from the kwanza reajustado commercial ally for Harare's strategy in the connections. Africa Confidential understands this month will sharply reduce the number of Congo-Kinshasa war (Vol 40 No 22). that Luanda was told there would no longer be millionaires in Angola. The appreciation of the Rautenbach’s Ridgepointe company has also such flights from Uganda but Angola still exchange rate from KZR5.5 million to 5.5 new taken over some of Congo’s richest mineral suspects UNITA may be getting Rwandan help. assets in an opaque deal negotiated with kwanzas to the dollar isn’t likely to improve President Laurent-Désiré Kabila’s Minister living conditions: inflation has been running at of State Pierre-Victor Mpoyo. 20 per cent a month this year and Central Bank EUROPEAN UNION/ACP A South African police raid on Rautenbach’s Governor Aguinaldo Jaime insisted the new house, office and four aircraft on 18 November currency will bring down prices. It is the latest was followed by a statement from Pretoria’s in a series of economic reforms which Luanda is Brussels dawn Director of Public Prosecutions, Bulelani showcasing to prove to the West that it's serious It was dawn in Brussels on 9 December when Ngcuka, that Rautenbach was on a list of 20 about improving economic management. ministers from the European Union and the businesses linked to organised crime that the Washington has signed a military cooperation African, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) nations government was targeting. And then on 14 agreement with Luanda and Britain has pledged wearily ended their negotiations. They had December, court documents submitted by to seek out and close down any bank accounts failed to agree on a text to replace the latest Ngcuka’s office showed that as well as a series connected to the UNITA rebels. Britain and the Lomé Convention, which expires at the end of of alleged tax frauds, police were investigating United States are the main investors in Angola’s February. They must meet again, probably in Rautenbach in connection with the illegal supply oil industry, one of the fastest growing in the January, to wind everything up. The European of weaponry across South Africa’s borders and world despite the devastating civil war. Commission (especially its newer members) his alleged involvement in the murder of a Hence Luanda’s fury at the London-based has grown less keen on favouring former South Korean, Yong Koo Kwon, the Daewoo Global Witness organisation’s critique of the colonies; new Development Commissioner Poul Motor Corporation’s President in Southern oil business which it argues is fuelling the war Neilsen (Denmark) seemed confused by Africa. One of Rautenbach’s business interests and fostering corruption. President José journalists’ detailed questions. At the previous is Hyundai Motor Distributors, which is licensed Eduardo dos Santos’ office is threatening to negotiating session in Santo Domingo, to produce vehicles for that South Korean sue Global Witness for ‘criminal and civil libel’. Dominican Republic, in November, Finnish manufacturer. Global Witness' last report partly prompted De Development Minister Hatu Hassi went home Rautenbach, who is currently in Zimbabwe, Beers to ban the purchase of Angola's gems. without an explanation, leaving his speech to be vehemently denies all the charges according to read by a Portuguese diplomat; Finnish sources his spokesman. Ngcuka’s statement about the tell us Hassi left because proceedings were UGANDA investigation into the murder of the Daewoo running late, not unusual at the ACP. chief came in the midst of Rautenbach’s legal The EU wanted agreements compatible with attempts to get the return of documents seized the free-trading rules of the World Trade by Ngcuka’s department in the 18 November Muddy Organisation but had apparently not asked the raid. A judgement on that and whether the Allegations of Ugandan complicity in supplying WTO for a waiver allowing temporary police investigation into Rautenbach will arms to the União Nacional para a preferences for the ACP. The ACP wasted time continue is expected next week. Independência Total de Angola rebels are by failing to agree whether the next Convention Although Rautenbach has lost popularity with always met with flat denials from President should be signed in Lomé, Togo or Suva, Fiji. Kabila’s ministers, he is still influential in the Yoweri Museveni’s government. Yet a series The sticking point was the bill the EU would Zimbabwean cabinet or at least the Mnangagwa of recent incidents show, at least, an alarming pay for the five years of the agreement. faction of it. When Congolese ministers wanted laxity by the Ugandan authorities. The ACP ministers were disappointed by a to sack Rautenbach, who was appointed Britain’s Minister of State for Africa, Peter proposal that the European Development Fund Chairman and Chief Executive of the state Hain, told parliament on 7 December that be allocated only Euro 13.5 billion (US$13.7 mining house Gécamines last December, Ukrainian pilots were flying supplies to UNITA bn.), E.500 million less than the Commission’s Mnangagwa interceded on his behalf. In the with the connivance of regional states; he proposed sum. Some European ministers event, Rautenbach was replaced as Chairman mentioned Uganda and Zambia. New York- pointed out that E.9 bn. of that had gone unspent by Belgian George Forrest but retained the based Human Rights Watch, in a report launched in the last round of the ACP agreement which Chief Executive’s post. We hear that at the start in Luanda on 16 December, has published details started a year late in 1997. The EU had wanted of Rautenbach’s troubles in South Africa, of Ugandan involvement with UNITA sanctions- to insist that ACP status should depend on Mnangagwa tried to intercede on his behalf but busters. The 11-76 aeroplane of Azoz-Avia ‘good governance’. On ACP insistence, co- to no avail. Mnangagwa’s group now faces impounded in Lusaka since 14 August had been operation will be suspended only if there is some awkward choices. It could press its case inside UNITA areas. Airport officials in Lusaka ‘serious corruption’: the next meeting may for Rautenbach against South Africa, some were doubtful that the crew’s story that they had clarify whether that means honesty in ACP officials argue that the matter could affect the flown from Gambia was true since the wheels matters or in government generally.

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