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Financial Market Analysis (Fmax) Module 2

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Financial Market Analysis (Fmax) Module 2 Financial Market Analysis (FMAx) Module 2 Bond Pricing This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in IMF Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) courses. Any reuse requires the permission of the ICD. The Relevance to You You might be… § An investor. § With an institution that is an investor. You may be managing a portfolio of foreign assets in a sovereign wealth fund or in a central bank. § With an institution that is in charge of issuing sovereign bonds. § With an institution that is a financial regulator. Defining a Bond – 1 A bond is a type of fixed income security. Its promise is to deliver known future cash flows. § Investor (bondholder) lends money (principal amount) to issuer for a defined period of time, at a variable or fixed interest rate § In return, bondholder is promised § Periodic coupon payments (most of the times paid semiannually); and/or § The bond’s principal (maturity value/par value/face value) at maturity. Defining a Bond – 2 Some bond have embedded options. § Callable Bond: The issuer can repurchase bond at a specific price before maturity. § Putable Bond: Bondholder can sell the issue back to the issuer at par value on designated dates (bond with a put option). Bondholder can change the maturity of the bond. Central Concept: Present Value The Present Value is… § The value calculated today of a series of expected cash flows discounted at a given interest rate. § Always less than or equal to the future value, because money has interest- earning potential: time value of money. The Bond Pricing Formula – 1 Consider a bond paying coupons with frequency n. § Cash flows: coupon C paid with frequency n up to year T, plus the principal M, paid at T. § How much is the stream of cash flows worth today? To answer this question we need to calculate the present value of the cash flows. § The present value is the price we are willing to pay today in order to receive the stream of cash flows. The Bond Pricing Formula – 2 Bond Price is equal to Present Value of all the cash flows you receive if you hold to maturity. nT CM =+ P å snT(2.1) s=1 æöæöyy ç÷ç÷11++ èøèønn P: bond price; C: coupon payment (assumed constant); n: number of coupon payments per year; T: number of years to maturity; y: interest rate used to discount the cash flows; yield-to-maturity (YTM) or market required yield; M: par value (or face value, or maturity value) of the bond. The Bond Pricing Formula – 3 Bond Price is equal to Present Value of all the cash flows you receive if you hold to maturity. CC CCM+ P =+21 +++L nT- nT æöy æöyyy æö æö ç÷1 + ç÷111+++ ç÷ ç÷ èøn èønnn èø èø nT CM =+ å s nT s=1 æöæöyy ç÷ç÷11++ èøèønn éù êú CMêú1 =1-nT+ nT (2.2) æöy êúæöæöyy ç÷êúç÷ç÷11++ èøn ëûèøèønn The Bond Pricing Formula – 4 Three special cases of the bond pricing formula: M § A zero-coupon bond: P = nT æöy ç÷1+ èøn éù êú C êú1 § An annuity (coupons only): P =1 - nT æöy êúæöy ç÷êúç÷1 + èøn ëûèøn C § A perpetuity (coupons only, infinite maturity): P = æöy ç÷ èøn The Bond Pricing Formula – 5 The bond pricing formula tells us… § The higher the coupon rate, the higher the coupon payments, and the higher the bond price. § The higher the YTM, the lower the bond price. The higher the YTM, the more you discount the bond cash flows; this ultimately lowers the bond price. Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 1 The most important bond yield measure is the yield-to-maturity (YTM). The YTM is the internal rate of return (IRR) of a bond investment. § The IRR is the interest rate which ensures that the net present value (NPV) of an investment is equal to zero. § Hence, the YTM is the interest rate which ensures that the NPV of a bond investment is equal to zero. Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 2 Let us compute the present value of the bond cash flows assuming that the annual YTM is equal to 10%. The market bond price is US$ 655.9. Recall the bond pricing formula (2.2): éù êú nT CMC1 M =+=êú-+ P å snTnTnT1 s=1 æöæöyyæöy êú æöæö y y ç÷ç÷11++ç÷êú ç÷ç÷ 1 + 1 + èøèønnèøn ëû èøèø n n Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 3 C denotes the coupon payment and is calculated as follows: cM* C = (2.3) n c = the coupon rate M = the face value of the bond n = the number of intra-year coupon payments: with semiannual coupon payments, n=2. Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 4 We can use (2.2) and (2.3) to compute the bond price, assuming that the annual YTM is 10%: æö0.07*1000 éù 2*15 ç÷ êú 2 1000 35 1 1000 =+=èø êú-+ P å s 2*15*1 30 30 s=1 æöæö0.10 0.100.10 êú æöæö 0.10 0.10 ç÷ç÷11++êú ç÷ç÷ 1 + 1 + èøèø222 ëû èøèø 2 2 =>769.4 655.9 The computed price is higher than the market bond price: 10% cannot be the YTM. Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 5 Let us compute the bond price assuming that the annual YTM is 12%: æö0.07*1000 éù 2*15 ç÷ êú 2 1000 35 1 1000 =+=èø êú-+ P å s 2*15*1 30 30 s=1 æöæö0.12 0.120.12 êú æöæö 0.12 0.12 ç÷ç÷11++êú ç÷ç÷ 1 + 1 + èøèø222 ëû èøèø 2 2 = 655.9 The annual YTM is 12%, as the computed bond price is equal to the actual market price (US$655.9). Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Maturity – 6 Finally, let us recall: CC CCM+ P =+21 +++L nT- nT æöy æöyyy æö æö ç÷1+ ç÷111+++ ç÷ ç÷ èøn èønnn èø èø C and M are known. § If you know P, you can derive the YTM (y). § If you know the YTM, you can derive P. The YTM is an alternative way to express the bond price. Yield Measures: Bond-Equivalent Yield The Bond Equivalent Yield: • In the previous example, we used a yield-to-maturity of 12%, which is the bond- equivalent yield. • To get the bond-equivalent yield, you have to multiply the effective semiannual rate (6%) by 2 (to get 12%). • But the bond-equivalent yield is just a market convention to quote the bond yield. • The effective annual yield-to-maturity is calculated differently. Yield Measures: Effective Yield The effective annual yield-to-maturity Y is the actual yield received by the investor; it takes into account the compound interest as well. Example: you invest $1 at an annual yield (YTM) of 12% (bond–equivalent yield). After 6 months you get: 0.12 $1 ∗ 1 + = $1.06 2 After 12 months you get: 0.12 * $1∗ 1 + =$1.1236 2 The effective annual yield-to-maturity Y is: 0.12 * Y= 1 + −1=0.1236=12.36%>YTM=12% 2 Yield Measures: The Current Yield Another bond yield measure is the current yield. § The current yield is calculated as the annual coupon payment divided by the bond price; § For example, the current yield for an 18-year, 6% coupon bond selling for US$700.89 per US$1,000 face value is… 60 CY ===0.0856 8.56% 700.89 Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Call Callable bond: the issuer can repurchase bond at a specific price before maturity. § YTM is calculated assuming that the bond will be held until maturity. § How to calculate the yield of a bond which is callable? § We need to calculate the yield-to-call (YTC). Yield Measures: The Yield-to-Put and Yield-to-Worst Yield-to-put (YTP): It is the yield on a putable bond. Price of putable bond is like the price of a standard coupon bond, but with a modified maturity (T*), and where the maturity value M is the put price (PP). CC C CPP+ P =+ +++L PB æöy 22*21T* - T 1+ æöyyæöy æö ç÷ç÷11++ç÷1+ ç÷ èøn èønnèøn èø Yield-to-worst (YTW): It is the smallest of the possible yield measures that can be computed for a given bond issue. Yield Measures: Bond Investment Risks Interest Rate Risk: Risk that the bond value changes following a change in interest rates. § An increase in the YTM after purchase of the bond leads to a capital loss. Reinvestment Risk: Risk of not being able to reinvest all future coupon payments at the initial YTM. § Zeros have no reinvestment risk. Default Risk: Risk that the bond issuer is unable to make the required payments to the bondholder. Bond Pricing Example 1 – Coupon Bond Applying the formula: éù êú nT CMC1 M =+=êú-+ P å s nT1 nT nT s=1 æöæöyyæöy êú æöæö y y ç÷ç÷11++ç÷êú ç÷ç÷ 1 + 1 + èøèønnèøn ëû èøèø n n éù êú 40 45 1000 45 1 1000 =+=êú-+ å s 401 40 40 s=1 æöæö0.06 0.06æö0.06 êú æöæö 0.06 0.06 ç÷ç÷11++ç÷êú ç÷ç÷ 1 + 1 + èøèø22èø2 ëû èøèø 2 2 = 1,040.2 +=306.5 1,346.7 Alternatively, you could use Excel: § Write out the cash flows over time and discount them back to the present, or..
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