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Dynamic Prediction of Australian Rules Football Using Real Time Performance Statistics

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Dynamic Prediction of Australian Rules Football Using Real Time Performance Statistics Dynamic prediction of Australian Rules football using real time performance statistics Donald Forbes BSc (Maths), LLB, Grad Dip (App. Sci) A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Applied Statistics Department of Life and Social Sciences Swinburne University of Technology March 2006 Acknowledgements The opportunity to undertake this research was a once in a lifetime opportunity for an avid sports fan such as myself. I am extremely grateful to the Department of Education, Science and Training for having the foresight to provide an Australian Postgraduate Industry Award (APAI) to support me financially during my tenure. This funding was complemented by Champion Data who have sponsored this project through its entirety and realised the impact that this research could have in the football industry. Special thanks to Ted Hopkins, who has taken a special interest in my work and been a constant source of discussion and debate on football issues. Thanks also to the football department, particularly Glenn Luff, Greg Planner and Darren O’Shaughnessy who have provided me with data and definitions during my research. Without the support of Champion Data this project would not have been possible. Special thanks to my supervisors Stephen Clarke and Denny Meyer. Stephen has been a constant throughout this research and his knowledge and skills have been invaluable. At times I thought I had confused him with the tack I took, yet he was always quick to read my work and provide me with suggestions on where I could improve my work. Denny was a new addition to the stable, only coming on board for the last 18 months of my tenure. She provided a fresh approach to my work as she had no knowledge of AFL football and was not tainted with pre-conceived ideas. Her technical skills were a huge bonus to me in the crucial stages of my analysis and she provided inspiration and encouragement that was greatly appreciated. Finally, I am especially grateful to the love and support I received from my family. To my magnificent wife, Elizabeth, who shares little of the passion that I do for sport, thank you for putting up with countless hours of meaningless football matches. To my daughter, Ashley, it was nice to have someone to watch the footy with and generally you went for the right team. And finally to our latest addition, Oliver, your skill at giving me ii peace to finalise my thesis was unquestionable. You all provided me with inspiration and support during my research and helped me keep things in perspective. Without your patience and love, I doubt that I would have reached this stage. iii Candidate’s Statement This document contains no material which has been accepted for the award to the candidate of any other degree or diploma, except where due reference is made in the text of the thesis. To the best of my knowledge, this document contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made in the text of the thesis. Unless acknowledged, all work found in this thesis has been done by the candidate. Donald Forbes iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... ii Candidate’s Statement ............................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................ v List of Figures ............................................................................................................. x List of Tables ............................................................................................................. xi Abstract .................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background to research ............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Aims of research ....................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Outline of research .................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Quantitative analysis of sport.................................................................................... 6 2.3 Markov techniques used in sport ............................................................................ 12 Chapter 3: Australian Rules football – the game and the information ..................... 16 3.1 History..................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 The game ................................................................................................................. 17 3.3 Development of Champion Data and AFL information collection ........................ 20 3.4 The data ................................................................................................................... 24 3.5 Examples ................................................................................................................. 26 3.6 Summary ................................................................................................................. 31 Chapter 4: Exploratory analysis of the data ................................................................ 34 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 34 4.2 A global competition or individual team approach? ............................................... 34 4.3 AFL club scoring events and their correlation ........................................................ 35 4.4 Scoring and time dependency in the AFL ............................................................... 42 4.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 45 v Chapter 5 Goals scored and conceded in the AFL....................................................... 46 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 46 5.2 Overview of statistical distribution applicable to scoring events ........................... 47 5.2.1 The Poisson distribution .................................................................................. 47 5.2.2 The negative binomial distribution .................................................................. 48 5.3 The AFL competition .............................................................................................. 49 5.4 Individual team goals on offence ............................................................................ 50 5.4.2 Individual team goals on defence .................................................................... 51 5.4.2.1 Port Adelaide defence analysis ................................................................. 52 5.5 Behinds ................................................................................................................... 53 5.6 Scoring shots ........................................................................................................... 54 5.7 Summary ................................................................................................................. 54 Chapter 6: Home/venue advantage in the AFL competition ...................................... 56 6.1 Home and away level HAs – AFL nominated home team ..................................... 56 6.2 Difference in performance advantage according to venue ..................................... 57 6.3 Home and away level HAs – actual home advantage involved .............................. 58 6.4 Impact of home advantage on match performance statistics .................................. 59 6.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 64 Chapter 7: Pre-match prediction .................................................................................. 65 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 65 7.2 Overview of this approach ...................................................................................... 66 7.3 Development of the model ...................................................................................... 68 7.4 Results ..................................................................................................................... 73 7.5 Updating predictions during a match ...................................................................... 76 7.6 Summary ................................................................................................................. 77 Chapter 8: An eight state Markov process to globally approximate Australian Rules football ............................................................................................................................. 78 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................
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