QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Contents

With the recent Quebec election, another chapter in Canada's constitutional saga was completed. Chronicling the constitutional history of this nation requires an understanding much like that necessitated by epic narratives in which the reader must try to remember how all the pieces fit together: the root causes of the conflicts, the extensive cultural and political background, and the multiple "character roles" that created historical precedents. Like epic narrative, the opposing forces in the recent Quebec election took heroic stances and proclaimed past and future deeds of great proportions. Although for some observers these contemporary events are high drama, for others they are simply more of the same weary sequences of events seemingly without resolution. In terms of the ultimate and frequently deferred outcome, however, the historical relationship between Quebec and the rest of Canada is a vital and engaging drama. (Start : 16:27; Length:16:30)

Contents Introduction Qui a mené la danse? Speaking On Behalf of Canadians Personality and Politics Personality and Preferences Unofficial Political Campaigns The Demographic Connection The Pulse of the People Discussion, Research and Essay Questions

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers.

Comprehensive News in Review Study Modules

Using both the print and non-print material from various issues of News in Review, teachers and students can create comprehensive, thematic modules that are excellent for research purposes, independent assignments, and small group study. We recommend the stories indicated below for the universal issues they represent and for the archival and historic material they contain.

"The Quebec Election: A Time of Choice," Sep 94 "Quebec Separatism: Campaign Stalled?" May 95 "Quebec: The Referendum," Nov 95 "Quebec: The Rules For Separation," Oct 98

Please see the News in Review index for the numerous stories relating to Quebec and constitutional issues.

Other Related Videos Available from CBC Learning Does Your Resource Collection Include These CBC Videos?

Canadian Great Speeches East of Canada: The Story of Newfoundland The Great Divide: Separatism and Partition Memories of October The National Dream Oka Remaking Canada: A Clash of Histories

QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Introduction

When the Quebec election campaign wrapped up on November 30, 1998, some political observers remarked that the election expected to be one of the most dynamic and exciting in Quebec history turned out to be surprisingly low-key. Also surprising was the less than sensational confrontation between "Captain Canada," as Jean Charest was being called, and Lucien Bouchard, the "Prime Minister of Quebec," as the Parti Québécois' English-language material referred to him (premier ministre being the French equivalent of premier). Influenced by polls showing that more than 60 per cent of Quebecers did not want to go through another debate on sovereignty, both leaders chose to downplay the issue. Instead, the campaign focused on the issues of health care, education, and jobs.

With the completion of a by-election on December 14, of the 125 seats in the Quebec National Assembly, the Parti Québécois (PQ) won 76, the Liberals 48, and the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) won only one. While the PQ won a majority of seats to form the new government, commentators agreed that, because the party did not win a majority of the popular vote, it would be unable to call another referendum on sovereignty in the near future. In terms of popular support, more people voted against the PQ than for it. The Liberals won 43.7 per cent of the popular vote, compared with the PQ's 42.7 per cent and the ADQ's 11.8 per cent.

Speaking in a post-election news conference, Jean Charest said, "The members of the Parti Québécois today have to feel very uncomfortable about the results of this election campaign. The result tonight . . . reflects the fact that the people of Quebec, like the people of all Canada, want this country of ours to work and be a success." Mario Dumont of the Action Démocratique was more explicit in his analysis. "He [Bouchard] was not elected to do a referendum on sovereignty. . . . Quebecers want constitutional peace." Reaction in Montreal newspapers reinforced the idea that Quebecers voted more for good government than for a sovereignist party. Montreal's Gazette said, "For all his popularity and Teflon-like qualities, Mr. Bouchard must not read more into his triumph than is really there. Quebecers elected a government yesterday, they did not endorse the independence option. . . ."

In Bouchard's own victory speech he conceded, "[Another referendum is] not for tomorrow. Obviously, the first part of the mandate will have to be devoted to the achievements of a good government." But when questioned the next day about his referendum plans, Bouchard did not rule out calling one during the new mandate—if Quebecers should decide his government has improved their social, cultural, and economic conditions. "There will be a confidence- building in Quebec where I think it will be possible to have a winning referendum. I knew that the polls were showing that almost two-thirds of Quebecers didn't think it was a good idea to hold a referendum in the next year," he said. "But I also know that when the conditions arrive for a winning referendum, that will be a different cup of tea."

While he made it clear that he would be working to foster "winning conditions," Bouchard acknowledged that his government faced some difficult challenges. It has to deal with a deficit expected to top $1-billion, public-sector unions fighting for contract settlements, and a public demanding improved health care. Sounding the death knell for the sovereignty movement in Quebec may be premature, but unless and until "winning conditions" present themselves, the referendum appears to have been deferred.

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Qui a mené la danse?

In his victory speech, Bouchard spoke to a crowd of about 600 supporters inside Quebec City's Convention Centre. He appeared later than scheduled, and it was reported that he appeared visibly shaken. Neither he nor his crowd of supporters appeared particularly elated. Writing in The Globe and Mail, Lysiane Gagnon reported that Bouchard "gloomily read a written statement that sounded like an uninspired Speech from the Throne. Gone was the fire, gone was the passion." In contrast, it was reported that Jean Charest's speech conceding defeat was greeted with enthusiasm and acclamation by his Liberal supporters. Gagnon reported that a foreigner watching the scene on television would have thought Jean Charest had just won the election. Gagnon wrote, "It was a strange election night, with the winners looking like losers and vice versa."

This ambiguous description illustrates the relative nature of winning versus losing and demonstrates the important role context plays in determining what constitutes victory and defeat. For any given competition, there are, of course, the "official" winners, but we must also consider the participants' ambitions, goals, skills, and abilities in order to fully evaluate the results. In addition, we must consider the expectations of others. Because many of these elements may play a larger role in the long run, what constitutes victory and defeat is not necessarily a simple definition. For example, a runner who places last in the 100-metre Olympic final would not receive a medal, but competing in the Olympics is certainly a significant achievement in itself and may perhaps be a new level of achievement for that individual. The runner may also have exceeded all expectations or achieved a personal best.

Win-Win Situations Consider the competitive situations listed below. Suggest how each involves wins and losses but how each also involves many levels of winning. • Candidates compete for a job. • Nations compete in the global economy. • Students compete for acceptance into university programs.

With A View to Winning Bearing these ideas in mind, watch this News in Review report. As you do so, note events or developments that occurred before, during, or after the election that could be categorized as either wins or losses. Then as a class, compile your findings and assess the nature of each win and each loss. In your opinion, of the three leaders— Lucien Bouchard, Jean Charest, and Mario Dumont—who achieved the most? Who achieved the least? Is it possible that all three of these leaders can be considered winners? Did Canadians as a whole win or lose as a result of this election?

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Speaking On Behalf of Canadians

On the evening of the Quebec election on November 30, 1998, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien made the following statement. As you read his statement try to identify Chrétien's main thesis. What "evidence" does he use to support his argument? To whom is he trying to appeal?

The people of Quebec have chosen to re-elect the government of the Parti Québécois. I sincerely congratulate Mr. Bouchard on this personal victory in which he has won his first mandate as Premier. I also congratulate Mr. Charest, who took up the immense challenge of defeating a government after just one term; something that has rarely been accomplished in Quebec, the last time being almost 30 years ago. It was an extremely difficult task for which he had only a very little time to prepare. He and his troops have every reason to be proud of the remarkable battle they have put up, which has them leading the Parti Québécois in the popular vote. I congratulate Mr. Dumont, who has run an energetic campaign with surprising results. Finally, I congratulate all the candidates who took part in this great democratic exercise.

During the campaign, Mr. Bouchard and his party repeated that this election was about choosing a government. This is what Quebecers understood in constantly making it known that they do not want another referendum. This is the fourth time in 22 years that the Parti Québécois has been elected to govern. Each time, the voters of Quebec not only did not reject Canada, they reiterated their attachment to our country in two referendums.

For more than five years, the government that I lead has gone about restructuring the role of the state so as to restore order to our public finances and create a climate favourable to economic growth and job creation. We have made great progress thanks to the support and commitment of Canadians, as well as the co-operation of the provincial and territorial governments who have supported our efforts. We have done it in a spirit of mutual co-operation and sharing, not in a spirit of confrontation. Because this magnificent country, Canada, is dear to us. Because it is precious and must be handled with care. Because our country is our home. It is our family. It is who we are. It must be respected and protected.

When we listen to our fellow citizens, they tell us that their priorities are the economy and jobs, health care, education, and the future of young Canadians. To the extent that Mr. Bouchard and his colleagues respect these priorities and work to strengthen our nation—that of Quebecers and all Canadians—they will have our full co-operation. But when he talks about creating the famous "winning conditions"— that he refuses to reveal—for holding another referendum on separation, he should know that we will defend and protect our country, our home, our family, with all of our strength. They should have no doubt about it. When the time comes to defend Canada we will be there every step of the way.

For more than 130 years we Quebecers have worked with other Canadians to build a prosperous, tolerant, generous nation, whose extraordinary quality of life has been recognized internationally. And I am convinced that my fellow Quebecers share with all Canadians a deep faith in the future of our country. But as fantastic as Canada is, it is not a finished work. There is more building to be done. Together that is what we must do. Together, that is what we will do.

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Personality and Politics

Some political analysts described the election campaign as a non-campaign in which "virtual separatism" collided with "virtual federalism." In their opinion, it seemed neither the Liberals nor the Parti Québécois were willing to identify or address their ideologies by their true names. Both of the main parties opposed each other on the one fundamental issue that separates them: sovereignty. But both went out of their way to avoid discussing it. Commentators surmised that both leaders could be suspected by their own hard-line party faithful for not being true defenders of their respective "faiths." Some suggested that, as a result, the election ceased to be about principles and increasingly became an election based on personalities.

What do you think was meant by the terms virtual separatism and virtual federalism?

After viewing the video and reading the following descriptions of the three leaders, suggest how each supports the proposition that this was an election based on personality as much as if not more than on principle. Suggest whether you think this is a good or bad thing.

Lucien Bouchard "He [Bouchard] does not have the charisma of René

Lévesque but he has a way of speaking and presenting things that makes them sympathetic to the francophone population. People don't vote for the Parti Québécois, they vote for Bouchard." — Gilles Grondin, federalist and former mayor of Shawinigan South

Jean Charest "The 40 year-old Sherbrooke native, young, smart, successful on a larger stage, has star power, and like Bouchard, he knows how to work a crowd. Greeting a group of high school teachers earlier this month in his home riding south of Montreal, he moved out of a pack of reporters to compliment the young women on their work and wished a young expectant mother good luck on her own ‘development project.' ‘He knows what to say, how to touch all the points,' said the woman afterward, evidently impressed." — Time, November 30, 1998

Mario Dumont "The ADQ fielded candidates in all of Quebec's 125 ridings. But for most Quebecers, leader Mario Dumont is the party. Dubbed ‘Super Mario' by the media, he proved himself a force to be reckoned with." — Maclean's, December 14, 1998

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Personality and Preferences

In the late stages of the election campaign, the polling firm Compas conducted a poll to assess voter preference. One question in particular dealt with the role personality plays as a factor in influencing voter preferences. Paraphrased below is that question:

People say that different politicians have different personalities and values. Please rate each of the three leaders—Lucien Bouchard, Jean Charest, and Mario Dumont—on each of the following characteristics, using a 7-point scale where 7 is the highest score: having sense of humour; being able to bring about change that is smooth and reasonable; having personal honesty and integrity; caring about how average Quebecers live; being a dynamic personality; looking like a leader; sounding like a leader.

Findings Compas reported that Lucien Bouchard equalled or surpassed Charest with respect to each of the seven personality characteristics.

• On a scale of 0 to 7, Bouchard received high scores for looking like a leader. Seventy-eight per cent of respondents scored him 5-7 on the 7-point scale compared with 56 per cent for Charest and 52 per cent for Dumont.

• On sounding like a leader, 79 per cent scored Bouchard in the high range versus 58 per cent for Charest and 47 per cent for Dumont.

• Mario Dumont demonstrated strength according to perceptions of his honesty and integrity. Seventy-four per cent scored him 5-7 on the 7-point scale versus 62 per cent for Bouchard and 49 per cent for Charest. On perceptions about sense of humour, Dumont received 64 per cent versus 54 per cent for Bouchard and 46 per cent for Charest.

Assessing the Results Many political experts thought Jean Charest had won the leadership debate. They said he had shown "less rigidity than Lucien Bouchard and more openness to the thinking of third-party leader Mario Dumont." But the polling of Quebec voters revealed otherwise. Compas's polling indicated that Dumont won the debate, with Bouchard a close second and Charest a distant third. Compas asserted that much of Bouchard's advantage over Charest derived from voters' acknowledged preconceptions of the two leaders in addition to their perception, especially among university graduates, that the Premier looks and sounds like a leader.

Activity and Discussion 1. Using the question posed by Compas, conduct and tabulate a similar informal poll in your class based on a further viewing of the video.

2. In your opinion, was this an election based on personalities or on political ideology? What are the implications of the personality versus politics question in terms of a political campaign?

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Unofficial Political Campaigns

Occasionally in Canadian politics there are events and incidents that, although not directly related to a political campaign, have an impact on the issues and on the public's perceptions of the issues. For example, in the late 1980s, a small group of people in Brockville, Ontario, trampled a Quebec flag and received considerable media attention. The event was seen repeatedly on Quebec television, creating a strong emotional response there, reinforcing the perception of an anti-Quebec feeling in English Canada.

In 1998, there were two high-profile incidents that contributed to heightening Quebec nationalist sentiments. In May, the appointment of former PQ candidate David Levine as Chief Executive Officer of the new Ottawa Hospital raised a storm of protest from federalists. Whereas in the Brockville affair the protesters were a tiny group of elderly people, in the Levine affair the protesters were a more widespread group. The protesters included many daily newspapers, educated professionals, town mayors, and Premier Mike Harris of Ontario. Levine was denounced as a traitor and blamed for the country's unity woes. That Levine was a highly respected hospital administrator and admired health professional was given little consideration. For Quebec sovereignists, the attacks on Levine were further proof of anti-Quebec feeling.

In late May 1998, the Quebec English rights group Alliance Quebec elected William Johnson as its new president. Sovereignists reacted to Johnson's strong views, which reportedly resulted in increased nationalist feelings in the province. In September Johnson stepped up Alliance Quebec's initiative to pressure the Quebec government and major businesses such as Eaton's and The Bay into permitting English-language signs. As the possibility of a Quebec election grew stronger, many federalists became concerned that Johnson and Alliance Quebec would further incite Quebec nationalism and hurt the federalist cause. Below you will find an excerpt from a press conference held by Alliance Quebec on September 23, 1998, regarding the English-language signs issue. The press conference occurred one week before the Quebec election was called. As you read this material, consider the impact and influence it might have had on the Quebec electorate, both English and French.

Will English in Quebec be the language of a ghetto? That is what our major retailers seem to think. The habit of treating English like scum dies hard. But English is not "pollution." Enough of having to play hide and seek with the English language. There comes a time. There comes a time to stand up for our rights and for our language. And there comes a time to ask ourselves and all our French-speaking fellow citizens: are we truly part of Quebec and do you accept us as your equal fellow citizens? Or are we aliens in our own land?

. . . Our campaign for the recognition of English has already produced some results. I'm told that, suddenly, English signs are sprouting in some stores where there were few or none before. And, among the worst offenders, both Eaton's and The Bay have given hints that they may put up a few English signs in their main downtown store on Sainte- Catherine Street.

. . . These retailers still treat English as the language of an English ghetto, to be displayed only if they are certain that few of their French customers will see it. They continue to treat English as a dangerous or subversive language that must be severely restricted to only a few spots in Quebec. They act as though our demand that they put up English signs is an unspeakable outrage, an insolent ultimatum. They need to be taught a lesson in civics and civility. The customer is always right.

The Bay and Eaton's both need their consciousness raised. Eaton's, for example, prefers to risk an economic boycott and possible bankruptcy rather than make a clear commitment to post English signs to the extent the law permits. Listen to Eaton's President's wishy-washy language in a press release issued yesterday: "We will therefore pursue our consultations with customers, our management team and industry colleagues to determine what should be done under the circumstances," Mr. Kosich [Eaton's President] wrote. Since he wants to consult his customers, I'm sure that he will appreciate our contribution. Tomorrow, at 6 p.m., we will rally in Phillips Square, we will walk to the downtown Eaton's store, which is supposedly in a "French market," and we will pass on a bit of advice: PUT ENGLISH SIGNS IN YOUR STORES.

Mr. Kosich, just to help you accelerate your review of your signage policy, we will be there Thursday, we will return Friday at 6 p.m., and we will be there Saturday at 11. Our message to your customers will be: do you really want to give your money to a company that has denied your language, your history, your identity for these several years, and even petitioned the Quebec government in 1993 not to allow English on signs? We will picket other Eaton's stores until you have finally, at last, belatedly caught the message: WE WANT ENGLISH ON SIGNS.

. . . Notre anglais est québécois.

Discussion 1. Describe the tone and content of this press release.

2. What role do you think actions like those of Alliance Quebec should play in the political process in Canada?

3. With reference to the recent Quebec political election, suggest whether there is or should be a difference between the "official" and "unofficial" political process.

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED The Demographic Connection

In mid-December 1998, Lucien Bouchard announced his new cabinet. He kept many key ministers but added some younger people and more women. During the election, he made it clear that he wanted to promote women in his cabinet, and after the election appointed nine women, out of a total of 28 cabinet positions, each of whom had never held a cabinet position. This is a record number of women in a Quebec government cabinet. For the first time, Quebec had women in the key positions of minister of justice and minister of municipal affairs. His choice of ministers seemed to emphasize issues other than sovereignty. Michel Auger, columnist for Le Journal de Montreal saw the move as bold and risky, but stressed that this was a cabinet designed to effectively govern a province, not one created to pave the way for another referendum. He noted that "for the first time ever, a Péquiste leader unveiled his team without making a single allusion to sovereignty." Other commentators were not so certain the new cabinet was a sign that sovereignty was on the back burner. Don Macpherson, columnist for Montreal's Gazette, argued that the high profile place afforded women was in fact designed to address the sovereignty movement's biggest problem, the gender gap; a younger cabinet with more female members would put a kinder, more gentle face on the sovereignty movement. Traditionally the sovereignty movement has been led primarily by men.

Prior to the November 30 election, a telephone survey of a 1000 Quebec residents had been conducted by the Angus Reid polling group. The poll indicated that a small gender gap existed between male and female sovereignty supporters. A greater percentage of male voters than female voters supported the sovereignty movement. When asked "If a referendum was held today, would you vote YES or NO to Quebec sovereignty, accompanied by an offer of partnership with the rest of Canada?" 49 per cent of males said YES and 45 per cent of females said YES. Public opinion polls can reveal important trends and characteristics about human populations. In this example a gender gap was revealed as an indicator of voter preference.

This type of analysis can also be used to reveal other indicators of voter preference based on information such as income, age, place of residency, education, religion, ethnicity, and language. Such categorizations are referred to as demography and the statistical characteristics of human behaviour is referred to as demographics. Used effectively, demographics can identify markets and areas of strength and weakness for clients such as businesses, non- commercial organizations, and governments. A sophisticated political campaign strategy tries to identify demographic weaknesses and to counter them by exploiting areas in which the demographics indicate there is strong support.

Prior to the election, the Angus Reid poll revealed a number of other specific demographic strengths and areas of support for the two main parties. They were as follows:

Le Parti Québécois • Fifty-five per cent of voters in the middle age group (35- 54 years of age) were in favour of the PQ • Forty-eight per cent of PQ supporters were male. • Fifty-four per cent were francophones. • At the time of the poll, the Parti Québécois was leading in both the Greater Montreal area (51 per cent PQ, 32 per cent Liberal, 16 per cent ADQ). In the rest of the province, the PQ was also leading; 49 per cent PQ, 38 per cent Liberal, and 12 per cent ADQ.

The Liberal Party • Of older voters (55 years of age or older), 60 per cent were supporting the Liberals. • Of their supporters, 43 per cent were women. • Ninety-eight per cent of anglophones were Liberal supporters, as were 76 per cent of allophones (neither French nor English-speaking by birth). • At the time of the poll, the Liberals were ahead of the PQ on the Island of Montreal: 55 per cent Liberal, 37 per cent PQ, and 7 per cent ADQ.

Discussion 1. With reference to these demographical statistics, suggest ways in which they could have been used to influence the election campaign and the party platforms of the Liberals and PQ. 2. How, in your opinion, did these demographics influence the outcome of the election?

3. Demographic research is a complex and precise science and therefore can be expensive. In your opinion what might be the impact of demographic research on the democratic process?

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED The Pulse of the People

Despite losing the election, for Jean Charest the final results were a huge vindication following a difficult campaign in which it had been predicted that he would be soundly defeated. For many observers, the results confirmed their belief in the role of average citizens in the democratic process.

In the last week of the campaign, for example, many polls showed Bouchard with a slight lead in the popular vote and a massive 20-point lead among francophone voters. It was a combination that was supposed to amount to a big PQ victory. According to the polls, the Liberal party would be reduced to a handful of anglophone ridings, and Charest himself would be defeated in his Sherbrooke riding. On November 24—less than a week before the election—the Angus Reid polling group reported that the PQ had strengthened its lead following the leaders' debate. Popular support for the PQ was reported to be 46 per cent, with 41 per cent for the Liberals. However, the election results proved these predictions wrong. The Liberals actually increased their number of seats by one, to 48, and eclipsed the PQ 43.7 per cent to 42.7 per cent in terms of the popular vote.

Between November 18 and November 23, a telephone survey of 1000 Quebec residents was conducted by Angus Reid. The following represent just some of their findings. As you read these poll results consider whether each finding, when made public, could influence voter behaviour and the election outcome. In your opinion, did these poll results accurately predict, contradict, or even influence the final election results?

• Following the leaders' debate, the PQ strengthened its lead (PQ 46 per cent, Liberals 41 per cent, ADQ 11 per cent).

• When asked to select who had the necessary qualities to lead Quebec after the next election, Quebecers preferred Lucien Bouchard (57 per cent, as opposed to 37 per cent for Jean Charest).

• Thirty-two per cent of Quebecers believed Mario Dumont won the debate, compared with 31 per cent for Lucien Bouchard, and 16 per cent for Jean Charest. Twenty-one per cent of respondents were not sure.

• When asked to choose between two options as to what Premier Bouchard should do if he were to be re-elected, 73 per cent said that he should "try to improve Quebec's position in the Canadian federation." Twenty-four per cent believed he should start working on establishing the winning conditions necessary for a referendum on sovereignty.

• When respondents were asked to say what they thought Bouchard would in fact do, 64 per cent said he would "start working on establishing the winning conditions." Thirty-two per cent said he would "try to improve Quebec's position in the Canadian federation."

• Overall, 51 per cent of respondents believed Premier Bouchard had been clear on the meaning of the winning conditions necessary to hold a referendum on sovereignty. Forty-eight per cent felt he had not been clear.

• Forty-five per cent of respondents believed Charest had been clear on his party's platform, as opposed to 54 per cent who believed he had not.

• Presented with the scenario of a Liberal win on November 30, respondents were asked their view on what Jean Charest should do relative to constitutional issues. In total, 47 per cent believed "he should put pressure on the rest of Canada to start constitutional negotiations," whereas 49 per cent preferred that Charest simply "leave the constitution aside for a few years." • If a referendum on sovereignty-partnership had been held at the time of the survey, 47 per cent of decided voters would have voted YES, while 53 per cent would have voted NO.

• Sixty-three per cent of respondents believed it was "possible to renew the federation in a way that satisfies both Quebec and the rest of Canada." Thirty-five per cent felt this was "impossible."

What Happened? In polling, there are standard explanations as to why anomalies occur, when public opinions in this case, for example, are either over-represented or under- represented. Such anomalies may be the result of the timing of a poll or sample size; and of course there are always margins of error to be considered. But this time almost all of the polling firms had produced the same results. In the past, pollsters have claimed they have little impact on election outcomes; that their findings represent snapshots of the electorate but don't have an impact on voter behaviour. However, it started to become clear there were some compelling arguments to the contrary as political commentators began searching for explanations. Some acknowledged they were influenced by the polling in the final weeks of the election campaign—and their newspaper headlines and political forecasts reflected this. For example, one of the most common words in the headlines ascribed to a predicted PQ victory during that period was landslide. Moreover, some media organizations predicted that the Liberals might make their worst showing in 25 years. Referring to media reporting of polling results, it has been postulated that voter behaviour might indeed have been shaped by media who in turn were influenced by the polls, and as a result the public tempered its vote, leading to much closer results than the polls had been predicting.

Pollsters have also offered two more explanations for what happened. The first is a phenomenon called "the ballot box premium." Polls measure the attitudes of the whole population of eligible voters. But on election day only 73 per cent of eligible voters actually voted. Twenty-three per cent did not. Pollsters believe that because PQ supporters are on average younger than Liberal supporters, a portion of the 23 per cent who did not vote might have been PQ supporters. This would explain the discrepancy between those who were counted as PQ supporters and those who actually voted for the PQ.

The other explanation involves the dynamics occurring during the final days of the campaign. According to some pollsters, voters saw the predictions of a PQ landslide and did not want to create the "winning conditions" for a referendum. As a result, many people changed their vote from the PQ to either the Liberals or Action Démocratique in the final moments of the campaign. Anecdotal evidence seemed to support this phenomenon. Lysiane Gagnon, a political columnist for La Presse, but writing in The Globe and Mail, said, "A woman I know, who wanted the PQ to form the government, also wanted a strong opposition. Once she was sure that the PQ would be safely returned to power, she voted for the Liberals." Pundits explained that this sort of voting behaviour was based on Quebecers' desire to avoid a referendum at any cost, and they did that by reacting to the polls.

Satirical Reading For a humorous view of how election results might be influenced by perceptions of who is or who is not winning, locate a copy of the short story "The Candidacy of Mr. Smith" in Sunshine Sketches of a Little Town by Canadian humorist Stephen Leacock. After reading this story, discuss how close to the truth this comic situation might be.

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers. QUEBEC ELECTS BOUCHARD: REFERENDUM DEFERRED Discussion, Research and Essay Questions

1. On January 20, 1999, the English-rights group Alliance Quebec announced it was taking the Parti Québécois government to court over access to health and social services in English. Louise Beaudoin, the cabinet minister responsible for French Language in Quebec took issue with the Alliance for turning to the courts to settle its disagreements with the government. Research why Alliance Quebec is taking this particular approach and the impact it is having on the sovereignist movement. Begin your research at the Alliance Quebec Web site at www.aq.qc.ca.

2. Forum Action Québec is a non-profit, non-partisan organization founded by young English-speaking Quebecers to promote and facilitate dialogue between Quebec's linguistic communities. Neither federalist nor sovereignist, it offers an alternative to groups who affiliate themselves with political parties and ideologies. Find out to what extent this non-partisan approach is working. Visit Forum Action Quebec at www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/2508/.

3. The chief electoral officer of Quebec can be accessed on the Internet at www.dgeq.qc.ca/anglais/index.html. What are the issues and laws this office oversees? What is its role in the democratic process?

4. Working as a class, create a timeline that chronicles Quebec's governments over the last century. For each government, record such items as the leader, political party, main aspects of the government platform, date and length in office, and significant events and issues that shaped French-English relations. How has Quebec politics changed over the last 100 years? When you are finished display it in a prominent place in your school.

5. Of the 656 candidates in the election, 121 were women —approximately 21 per cent. The Parti Québécois had 31 female candidates, the Liberals 30, and the Action Démocratique 21. A record 29 women won in their ridings: 20 for the PQ, and 9 for the Liberals. Despite these impressive results, what barriers might still inhibit women's participation in politics?

6. In the 1994 Quebec election, Jacques Parizeau, who was much less popular than Lucien Bouchard, led the PQ to 77 seats and 44.75 per cent of the popular vote. (In the recent election the PQ won 76 seats and 42.7 per cent of popular support.) The Liberals under Daniel Johnson, also not as popular as his successor, Jean Charest, won 47 seats and 44.40 per cent of the popular vote. (Charest's Liberals won 48 seats and 43.7 per cent of the popular vote.) Fourteen months later the PQ called a referendum on sovereignty, which lost by a whisker. Compare Bouchard and Charest's performance with their predecessors' and prepare a class debate on one of the following questions. Did Bouchard perform better than Parizeau? Did Charest perform better than Johnson? Is a winning referendum less of a possibility today than it was in 1994?

Indicates material appropriate or adaptable for younger viewers.