PERCEPTION Vs. REALITY
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DECEMBER 2014 AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF SOUTH FLORIDA’S NEW CONDOMINIUM MARKET A RT E UR LT U C ON CATI U E ED N T E R T L A A I N N M O RE I A E L N T E A S T N T A R T E E T N I MIAMI N O RISE OF A GLOBAL CITY I H S A F & M L I F F Y I N G A O N C L E O N H C E T PERCEPTION vs. REALITY RENTAL TRENDS INTERNATIONAL REPORT arts&culture ISG CITY WATCH Cover Credit: FROM THE ISG PRINCIPALS Welcome to the ISG Miami Report, we are honored to present our current research on the state of the South Florida market. This edition is the most extensive and in-depth Miami Report to date. The speed at which the South Florida Market is evolving is breathtaking. Our intention these last five years has been to define the state of the market and to inform our fellow business associates how these dynamics affect our business environment and define our region. In this report, we have once again assembled all of the recent data on our current market conditions. We have examined new and pre-construction developments sub market by sub market, studied MLS trends, and have included (for the first time) an analysis of the rental market, which is playing such a big part in our economic growth. Our latest edition covers more than statistics. We have diligently charted the many influences that propel Miami’s emergence as a Global City. The future is both exciting and dynamic. In this issue we feature the various areas that demonstrate the evolution of Miami. In this regard, we have also examined the subjective factors that are impacting the worldwide surge of interest in South Florida. In the course of our research, one theme begins to emerge “MIAMI IS THE REASON”. The rationale may vary and be as diverse as the people looking to settle here. It may be the politics, security, culture, economic stability, education, climate or simply the lifestyle, but it is MIAMI as a whole that is the star. Has Miami already achieved the status of “Global City”? Perhaps, not yet. We have much to do in areas like infrastructure, transportation and education before we can rightly take our place as a Global City. However, no one can deny that we are certainly on the right track to distinction. We, at ISG, invite you to follow us as we chronicle the journey of a city on the rise to global prominence. We hope that you will find our material helpful in telling our story to a global audience and useful in promoting your business interests. ISG is committed to continuing to produce the high level of marketing information for which the Miami Report is known. Sincerely, Craig Studnicky & Philip Spiegelman Michael Ambrosio ISG Principals ISG President T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S 4. FEATURED STORY 6. WEALTH REPORT 8. FINANCIAL 12. NEW CONSTRUCTION 24. WORLD CLASS PENTHOUSES 26 . MLS RESALE INVENTORY 32. RENTAL TRENDS 40. POPULATION STATISTICS 42. INTERNATIONAL MARKET 48. TRANSPORTATION 54. CULTURAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 68. ISG CITY WATCH 70. SOUTH FLORIDA 2020 82. ON THE GROUND REPORT FEATURED STORY “Generally speaking, the market has continued a slow and steady recovery that is markedly different from past down cycle recoveries. History would suggest a more vertical recovery especially given the severity of the economic decline. This recovery has been a decidedly different experience PERCEPTION as the slope of recovery has been shallow and the expected acceleration has not materialized.” Stuart A. Miller Quote Chairman of Lennar Chairman REALITY Miami Herald, Monday October 13, 2014 Examining the Difference Between “Proposed” and “For Sale” in the South Florida New Condo Market Once again, buzz is difference between a brewing about the number condo project released to of proposed new condos set market (“For Sale”) versus a to hit the Miami / South proposed project that remains Florida market. Concern subject to the following: comparisons are even being - Land Use Approvals made to the bubble stories - Zoning Approvals of 2005. - Entitlement Approvals The Miami Herald published - Backing of Reputable an article in May of 2005, Developer “PROJECTING”, that 62,000 - Suitable Financing condos were planned for - Changing Business Plans development within the Currently, the estimated Brickell Ave. / Downtown number of new “Proposed” Miami corridor. In actuality, condos East of I-95, in just 17,502 of those proposed Miami-Dade, Broward, and 62,000 condos were Palm Beach is 38,000 developed...less than 40% of (according to the South what was projected. Florida Business Journal, October, 2014). In tracking the data of Miami / South Florida’s current Of those, 16,033 have been brought to market for sale, cycle, we found that the number of proposed new condos since the last business quarter of 2011 (42% of the 38,000 is, once again, different from the number of condos that “Proposed”). To date over 62% of this inventory has have actually been brought to market for sale thus far. been sold. Additionally, proposed condo projects may, eventually, be With less than 6,200 new condo units remaining to be sold, brought to market, once various governmental and South Florida currently has less than 18 months of new condo business issues get resolved. But it is critical to note the inventory for sale according to historical absorption patterns. 4 ISG MIAMI REPORT 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 4 PROPOSED PROPOSED 62,000 38,000 DOWNTOWN MIAMI MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD & AND BRICKELL ONLY PALM BEACH COUNTY EAST OF I-95 ACTUAL ACTUAL FOR SALE FOR SALE 17,502 16,033 SOLD 62% SOLD 2014 NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDO OVERVIEW South Florida Condominium Analysis East of Interstate 95 CONSTRUCTION TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL PERCENT TOTAL STATUS TOWERS UNITS SOLD SOLD UNSOLD Delivered 8 1,133 1,046 93% 84 Under Construction 44 8,540 7,209 84% 1,331 Pre-Construction 35 6,360 1,745 27% 4,615 Totals 87 16,033 10,000 62% 6,030 sources: multiple listing service (mls), tax records and on-site sales ISG MIAMI REPORT 5 WEALTH REPORT The Cities that matter to UHNWI’s - Global Survey MOST IMPORTANT NOW 2014 Miami Ranking: 7 7. Miami 1. London 2013 Miami Ranking: 8 $800 psf $6,000 psf 2011 Miami Ranking: 29 2009 Miami Ranking: 29 2. New York $4,000 psf (NYC / Manhattan) 10. Paris $4,400 psf 5. Geneva $3,000 psf For the past eight years, Knight Frank distributes an annual Wealth Report - a collection of data about the Global “UHNWI” community (ultra high-net-worth individuals), defined as those with US $30 million or more in net assets. Sources: Knight Frank Wealth Report Forbes, June 2014, Business Insider March 2014 6 ISG MIAMI REPORT TOP 5 CITIES NORTH AMERICA WHEN EXAMINING NorTH AMERIcaN CITIES OF IMPorTANCE TO UHNWI, MIAMI coMES IN AT #2 – SEcoND 6. Shanghai ONLY TO NEW YorK CITY. $2,000 psf 9. Beijing 1. New York 8. Dubai $1,500 psf 2. Miami $2,500 psf 4. Hong Kong $4,500 psf 3. Washington, D.C. 3. Singapore 4. San Francisco $1,500 psf 5. Toronto ISG MIAMI REPORT 7 “ 53 banking offices hold $12 billion in domestic deposits and $6.7 billion in non-resident alien deposits on Brickell Avenue, and nearly $7 billion in foreign money sits on the balance sheets of Greater Miami banks.” Miami Today, Dec. 11th, 2013 8 ISG MIAMI REPORT WALL STREET OF THE SOUTH Miami is the second most popular America. As the gateway to the rest of banking hub in the U.S. after the country, Miami and its financial center New York City. Currently home to over on Brickell Ave. is at the center of Latin 60 international banks and nearly 100 American investments. alternative investment companies*, Mark Spitznagel, founder and CIO of Miami’s thriving financial district is Universal Investments – the largest Hedge attracting financial institutions from Fund to move to Miami in recent years, said around the world. to Florida.gov, “Florida and Miami Dade Additionally, many of the nation’s County’s business-friendly policies offer wealthy financial leaders are heading to the perfect environment for Universal as the Sunshine State – with their clients’ we expand.” funds - to semi-retire while they work, Even the financial tycoons who live, and play. So why are banks and aren’t bringing their actual businesses to hedge funds setting up shop in Miami Miami are bringing their money here and investors from around the world in a major way – through large real depositing their millions here? estate purchases. Goldman Sachs One major reason are the tax breaks– CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Apollo no individual state income tax or estate Global Management’s Leon Blac have tax exists in Florida. Another reason is both reportedly purchased eight-figure Miami’s obvious connection to Latin residences in Miami Beach. *Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) “Miami Is Wall Street South” Business Insider, February, 2014 Rendering of proposed new Fairholme Capital HQ, designed by Arquitectonica ISG MIAMI REPORT 9 “ Downtown Miami is home to the second largest concentration of international banks that manage $26 billion worth of international bank assets and finances $54 billion worth of trade.” August, 2014 A SAMPLING OF HEDGE FUNDS & FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WITH HEADQUARTERS IN MIAMI Banco Colpatria Red Multibanca Encore Housing Opportunity Fund Colpatria SA WE Family Offices Banco Davivenda SA Atyant Capital (Boca) Banco de Bogata SA FINSER International Group Banco de Credito del Peru Riverloft Capital Management Banco de Nacion Argentina Universa Banco de Brasil City National Bank Banco Industrial de Venezuela USB ESL Fund TotalBank Fairholme Capital US Century Bank Bayview Asset Management 10 ISG MIAMI REPORT MAJOR CORPORATIONS In addition to the aforementioned and more than $209 million in capital banks and hedge funds that have investment.