Appendix 2 (Tables for Chapter 2)

Table 1: Observations for Attitudes Toward Democracy Attitudes Toward Democracy Elites Mass Media Trust Educational Level Age Gender Religiosity Country Country/Year Year HDI Societal Freedom Religious Fractionalization 1 5 :3795 No Elite Influence:15924 Min. :0.0000 Min. :1.000 Min. :1.000 Min. :18.00 Male :10529 Min. :1.000 Jordan :3133 Jordan.2013 : 1346 Min. :2011 Min. :0.3790 Min. : 4.0 Min. :0.0034 2 Completely Appropriate:2899 Islamist Elites : 1751 1st Qu.:0.3125 1st Qu.:1.000 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:26.00 Female:10247 1st Qu.:1.000 Lebanon:3118 Lebanon.2016: 1146 1st Qu.:2012 1st Qu.:0.6420 1st Qu.: 9.0 1st Qu.:0.0103 3 8 :2543 Secular Elites : 3101 Median :0.3750 Median :2.000 Median :4.000 Median :36.00 Median :2.000 :2409 Lebanon.2010: 1105 Median :2013 Median :0.7210 Median :11.0 Median :0.1978 4 7 :2523 Mean :0.4190 Mean :1.749 Mean :3.356 Mean :38.01 Mean :1.716 Egypt :2268 Jordan.2016 : 1104 Mean :2013 Mean :0.6792 Mean :10.5 Mean :0.2766 5 6 :2480 3rd Qu.:0.5625 3rd Qu.:2.000 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:47.00 3rd Qu.:2.000 Tunisia:2043 .2010 : 1048 3rd Qu.:2014 3rd Qu.:0.7450 3rd Qu.:11.0 3rd Qu.:0.4840 6 4 :1719 Max. :0.8125 Max. :2.000 Max. :6.000 Max. :90.00 Max. :3.000 Sudan :1846 .2011 : 973 Max. :2016 Max. :0.8140 Max. :14.0 Max. :0.7886 7 (Other) :4817 (Other):5959 (Other) :14054

Table 2: Observations for Attitudes Toward Islamic Law Attitudes Toward Sharia Elites Mass Media Trust Educational Level Age Gender Religiosity Country Country/year Year HDI Societal Freedom Religious Fractionalization 1 Min. : 1.00 No Elite Influence:16746 Min. :0.0000 Min. :1.00 Min. :1.000 Min. :18.00 Male :10907 Min. :1.000 Jordan :3234 Jordan.2013 : 1381 Min. :2011 Min. :0.3790 Min. : 4.00 Min. :0.0034 2 1st Qu.: 9.00 Islamist Elites : 1781 1st Qu.:0.3125 1st Qu.:1.00 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:27.00 Female:10750 1st Qu.:1.000 Lebanon:3188 Lebanon.2016: 1157 1st Qu.:2012 1st Qu.:0.6420 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.:0.0103 3 Median :11.00 Secular Elites : 3130 Median :0.3750 Median :2.00 Median :4.000 Median :36.00 Median :2.000 Egypt :2561 Jordan.2016 : 1156 Median :2013 Median :0.7210 Median :11.00 Median :0.1978 4 Mean :11.07 Mean :0.4124 Mean :1.75 Mean :3.339 Mean :38.25 Mean :1.703 Algeria:2383 Sudan.2010 : 1148 Mean :2013 Mean :0.6791 Mean :10.46 Mean :0.2728 5 3rd Qu.:15.00 3rd Qu.:0.5625 3rd Qu.:2.00 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:48.00 3rd Qu.:2.000 Tunisia:2210 Egypt.2016 : 1072 3rd Qu.:2016 3rd Qu.:0.7450 3rd Qu.:11.00 3rd Qu.:0.4840 6 Max. :17.00 Max. :0.8125 Max. :2.00 Max. :6.000 Max. :90.00 Max. :3.000 Sudan :1989 Lebanon.2010: 1066 Max. :2016 Max. :0.8140 Max. :14.00 Max. :0.7886 7 (Other):6092 (Other) :14677

Table 3: Observations for Attitudes Toward Interest Rates Attitudes Toward Riba Elites Mass Media Trust Educational Level Age Gender Religiosity Country Country/year Year HDI Societal Freedom Religious Fractionalization 1 Min. :1.000 No Elite Influence:16247 Min. :0.0000 Min. :1.000 Min. :1.00 Min. :18.00 Male :10649 Min. :1.000 Jordan :3269 Jordan.2013 : 1413 Min. :2011 Min. :0.3790 Min. : 4.00 Min. :0.0034 2 1st Qu.:1.000 Islamist Elites : 1699 1st Qu.:0.3125 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:2.00 1st Qu.:27.00 Female:10321 1st Qu.:1.000 Lebanon:2942 Jordan.2016 : 1163 1st Qu.:2012 1st Qu.:0.6420 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.:0.0103 3 Median :2.000 Secular Elites : 3024 Median :0.3750 Median :2.000 Median :4.00 Median :36.00 Median :2.000 Algeria:2460 Lebanon.2016 : 1112 Median :2013 Median :0.7210 Median :11.00 Median :0.0659 4 Mean :1.871 Mean :0.4137 Mean :1.753 Mean :3.34 Mean :38.21 Mean :1.712 Egypt :2245 Sudan.2010 : 1018 Mean :2013 Mean :0.6803 Mean :10.46 Mean :0.2638 5 3rd Qu.:2.000 3rd Qu.:0.5625 3rd Qu.:2.000 3rd Qu.:4.00 3rd Qu.:48.00 3rd Qu.:2.000 Tunisia:2217 Palestine.2010: 973 3rd Qu.:2016 3rd Qu.:0.7450 3rd Qu.:11.00 3rd Qu.:0.4840 6 Max. :4.000 Max. :0.8125 Max. :2.000 Max. :6.00 Max. :90.00 Max. :3.000 Sudan :1876 Lebanon.2010 : 970 Max. :2016 Max. :0.8140 Max. :14.00 Max. :0.7886 7 (Other):5961 (Other) :14321

1 Table 4: Observations for Attitudes Toward Gender in Society Attitudes Toward Gender & Society Elites Mass Media Trust Educational Level Age Gender Religiosity Country Country/year Year HDI Societal Freedom Religious Fractionalization 1 Min. : 1.000 No Elite Influence:16787 Min. :0.0000 Min. :1.000 Min. :1.000 Min. :18.00 Male :10884 Min. :1.000 Jordan :3235 Jordan.2013 : 1386 Min. :2011 Min. :0.3790 Min. : 4.00 Min. :0.0034 2 1st Qu.: 5.000 Islamist Elites : 1813 1st Qu.:0.3125 1st Qu.:1.000 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:27.00 Female:10784 1st Qu.:1.000 Lebanon:3124 Jordan.2016 : 1164 1st Qu.:2012 1st Qu.:0.6420 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.:0.0103 3 Median : 7.000 Secular Elites : 3068 Median :0.3750 Median :2.000 Median :3.000 Median :36.00 Median :2.000 Egypt :2502 Lebanon.2016: 1138 Median :2013 Median :0.7210 Median :11.00 Median :0.1978 4 Mean : 6.914 Mean :0.4118 Mean :1.749 Mean :3.327 Mean :38.24 Mean :1.709 Algeria:2327 Sudan.2010 : 1113 Mean :2013 Mean :0.6789 Mean :10.46 Mean :0.2710 5 3rd Qu.: 9.000 3rd Qu.:0.5625 3rd Qu.:2.000 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:48.00 3rd Qu.:2.000 Tunisia:2316 Egypt.2016 : 1053 3rd Qu.:2016 3rd Qu.:0.7450 3rd Qu.:11.00 3rd Qu.:0.4840 6 Max. :16.000 Max. :0.8125 Max. :2.000 Max. :6.000 Max. :90.00 Max. :3.000 Sudan :1981 Lebanon.2010: 1031 Max. :2016 Max. :0.8140 Max. :14.00 Max. :0.7886 7 (Other):6183 (Other) :14783

Table 5: Observations per Country and Year for Attitudes Toward Democracy 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Algeria 762 0 871 0 776 Egypt 724 0 636 0 908 Iraq 973 0 845 0 0 Jordan 0 681 1346 0 1104 Kuwait 0 0 0 860 0 Lebanon 0 1105 863 0 1146 Libya 0 0 0 415 0 Morocco 0 0 669 0 592 Palestine 0 935 0 0 0 Sudan 0 1047 798 0 0 Tunisia 797 0 692 0 553 Yemen 648 0 0 0 0

Table 6: Observations per Country and Year for Attitudes Toward Sharia 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Algeria 676 0 840 0 866 Egypt 759 0 730 0 1072 Iraq 932 0 828 0 0 Jordan 0 695 1381 0 1156 Kuwait 0 0 0 836 0 Lebanon 0 1066 962 0 1157 Libya 0 0 0 522 0 Morocco 0 0 616 0 672 Palestine 0 984 0 0 0 Sudan 0 1145 841 0 0 Tunisia 708 0 778 0 723 Yemen 682 0 0 0 0

2 Table 7: Observations per Country and Year for Attitudes Toward Gender & Society 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Algeria 660 0 817 0 849 Egypt 735 0 714 0 1053 Iraq 946 0 837 0 0 Jordan 0 683 1386 0 1164 Kuwait 0 0 0 861 0 Lebanon 0 1031 951 0 1138 Libya 0 0 0 507 0 Morocco 0 0 672 0 664 Palestine 0 987 0 0 0 Sudan 0 1110 868 0 0 Tunisia 776 0 820 0 719 Yemen 687 0 0 0 0

Table 8: Observations per Country and Year for Attitudes Toward Interest Rates (Riba) Algeria 737 0 884 0 838 Egypt 708 0 616 0 921 Iraq 866 0 734 0 0 Jordan 0 691 1413 0 1163 Kuwait 0 0 0 847 0 Lebanon 0 970 856 0 1112 Libya 0 0 0 515 0 Morocco 0 0 676 0 665 Palestine 0 973 0 0 0 Sudan 0 1015 858 0 0 Tunisia 720 0 804 0 692 Yemen 664 0 0 0 0

3 Table 9: Ordinal Logistic Regression Model for Effect of Elites, Mass Media, and Development on Attitudes Toward Democracy, Islamic Law, Women & Interest Rates

Dependent variable: Democracy Isl. Law Gender Interest Rates (1) (2) (3) (4) Age 0.002∗∗ −0.005∗∗∗ −0.007∗∗∗ −0.001 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)

Female 0.088∗∗∗ −0.009 −0.815∗∗∗ 0.010 (0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.026)

Education −0.011 −0.032∗∗∗ −0.120∗∗∗ −0.021∗ (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.011)

Islamist Elites −2.636∗∗∗ −3.450∗∗∗ 1.828∗∗∗ 1.064∗ (0.640) (0.576) (0.586) (0.620)

Secular Elites −1.639∗∗ 1.896∗∗∗ 2.778∗∗∗ −2.631∗∗∗ (0.723) (0.656) (0.678) (0.748)

Mass Media 1.366∗∗∗ −1.729∗∗∗ −4.715∗∗∗ −3.231∗∗∗ (0.466) (0.417) (0.430) (0.456)

HDI 1.179∗∗∗ −2.958∗∗∗ −2.037∗∗∗ −3.527∗∗∗ (0.335) (0.308) (0.311) (0.333)

Religiosity −0.044∗∗ −0.410∗∗∗ −0.183∗∗∗ 0.176∗∗∗ (0.021) (0.021) (0.020) (0.022)

Trust −0.322∗∗∗ −0.176∗∗∗ −0.142∗∗∗ −0.048 (0.028) (0.028) (0.028) (0.030)

Societal Freedom 0.040∗∗∗ 0.298∗∗∗ 0.285∗∗∗ 0.055∗∗∗ (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.008)

Religious Fractionalization −0.113∗∗ −2.221∗∗∗ −0.652∗∗∗ 1.208∗∗∗ (0.046) (0.049) (0.047) (0.050)

Islamist Elites X Mass Media 7.275∗∗∗ 6.724∗∗∗ −4.346∗∗∗ −0.537 (1.305) (1.156) (1.196) (1.255)

Secular Elites X Mass Media 1.858 1.881 −0.990 5.068∗∗∗ (1.464) (1.331) (1.390) (1.520)

Islamist Elites X HDI 4.622∗∗∗ 6.974∗∗∗ −2.567∗∗∗ −2.087∗∗ (0.977) (0.907) (0.914) (0.956)

Secular Elites X HDI 2.459∗∗ −2.860∗∗∗ −4.106∗∗∗ 3.118∗∗∗ (1.017) (0.936) (0.961) (1.059)

Mass Media X HDI −0.866 3.276∗∗∗ 5.954∗∗∗ 4.882∗∗∗ (0.666) (0.605) (0.618) (0.654)

Islamist Elites X Mass Media X HDI −12.012∗∗∗ −12.369∗∗∗ 6.559∗∗∗ 1.361 (2.002) (1.830) (1.872) (1.950)

Secular Elites X Mass Media X HDI −2.777 −3.773∗∗ 0.822 −6.583∗∗∗ (2.057) (1.894) (1.960) (2.144)

Observations 20,776 21,657 21,668 20,970 Log Likelihood −45,850.740 −49,823.310 −50,377.740 −24,477.050 Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01

4 Table 10: Multilevel Logit Models with Fixed Effects for Influence of Elites, Mass Media, and Development on Attitudes Toward Democracy, Law, Gender & the Economy

Democracy Isl. Law Gender Int. Rates (Intercept) 4.95∗∗∗ 21.50∗∗∗ 8.57∗∗∗ 0.99∗∗ (0.78) (1.45) (1.00) (0.32) Age 0.00∗∗ −0.01∗∗∗ −0.01∗∗∗ −0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Female 0.13∗∗∗ 0.03 −1.17∗∗∗ −0.00 (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.01) Education Level −0.01 −0.06∗∗ −0.23∗∗∗ −0.01 (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Islamist Elites −4.34∗∗∗ −8.92∗∗∗ 3.72∗∗∗ 0.46 (0.86) (1.16) (0.81) (0.29) Secular Elites −1.75 2.24 0.96 −1.40∗∗∗ (0.98) (1.35) (0.94) (0.34) Mass Media 1.36∗ −1.00 −3.71∗∗∗ −1.24∗∗∗ (0.66) (0.88) (0.63) (0.22) HDI 2.41∗ −11.84∗∗∗ 0.83 1.14∗∗ (1.07) (1.84) (1.29) (0.42) Religiosity −0.05 −0.65∗∗∗ −0.19∗∗∗ 0.06∗∗∗ (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.01) Trust −0.52∗∗∗ −0.11 −0.05 0.01 (0.04) (0.06) (0.04) (0.01) Islamist Elites X Mass Media 8.93∗∗∗ 13.88∗∗∗ −8.97∗∗∗ −0.56 (1.73) (2.35) (1.64) (0.59) Secular Elites X Mass Media 2.50 0.12 −2.15 2.40∗∗∗ (1.98) (2.72) (1.90) (0.69) Islamist Elites X HDI 7.75∗∗∗ 17.45∗∗∗ −4.92∗∗∗ −0.94∗ (1.31) (1.79) (1.25) (0.45) Secular Elites X HDI 2.98∗ −3.46 −1.61 1.78∗∗∗ (1.39) (1.91) (1.33) (0.49) Mass Media X HDI −0.79 1.51 4.38∗∗∗ 1.89∗∗∗ (0.95) (1.27) (0.91) (0.32) Islamist Elites X Mass Media X HDI −14.66∗∗∗ −24.20∗∗∗ 13.50∗∗∗ 1.03 (2.67) (3.63) (2.55) (0.91) Secular Elites X Mass Media X HDI −3.76 −0.19 3.00 −3.14∗∗ (2.79) (3.84) (2.69) (0.97) AIC 97295.39 115765.20 100702.96 53594.98 BIC 97462.13 115932.82 100870.58 53761.92 Log Likelihood -48626.69 -57861.60 -50330.48 -26776.49 Num. obs. 20746 21627 21635 20938 Num. groups: Religious Fractionalization 12 12 12 12 Num. groups: Societal Freedom 8 8 8 8 Num. groups: Year 5 5 5 5 Var: Religious Fractionalization (Intercept) 0.22 5.36 0.66 0.15 Var:Societal Freedom (Intercept) 0.09 0.16 0.89 0.02 Var: Year (Intercept) 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.00 Var: Residual 6.33 12.29 6.11 0.75 ∗∗∗p < 0.001, ∗∗p < 0.01, ∗p < 0.05

5 Table 11: Multilevel Logit Models with Fixed Effects for Influence of Elites on Attitudes Toward Democ- racy, Law, Gender & the Economy

Democracy Isl. Law Gender Int. Rates (Intercept) 6.82∗∗∗ 13.45∗∗∗ 9.34∗∗∗ 1.82∗∗∗ (0.21) (0.75) (0.35) (0.08) Age 0.00 −0.01∗∗∗ −0.01∗∗∗ −0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Female 0.08∗ 0.03 −1.12∗∗∗ −0.01 (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.01) Education 0.02 −0.05∗∗ −0.26∗∗∗ −0.00 (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.00) Islamist Elites 0.45∗∗∗ 1.45∗∗∗ 0.43∗∗∗ −0.06∗∗ (0.07) (0.09) (0.07) (0.02) Secular Elites 0.29∗∗∗ −0.21∗∗ −0.21∗∗∗ −0.04∗ (0.06) (0.08) (0.06) (0.02) Religiosity −0.05 −0.65∗∗∗ −0.19∗∗∗ 0.06∗∗∗ (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.01) Trust −0.54∗∗∗ −0.08 −0.05 0.00 (0.04) (0.06) (0.04) (0.01) AIC 97563.22 116153.84 101133.56 53789.48 BIC 97650.58 116241.65 101221.38 53876.94 Log Likelihood -48770.61 -58065.92 -50555.78 -26883.74 Num. obs. 20776 21657 21668 20970 Num. groups: Country 12 12 12 12 Num. groups: Year 5 5 5 5 Var: Country (Intercept) 0.23 5.57 1.02 0.05 Var: Year (Intercept) 0.05 0.36 0.11 0.00 Var: Residual 6.38 12.42 6.19 0.76 ∗∗∗p < 0.001, ∗∗p < 0.01, ∗p < 0.05

6 Table 12: Nominal Tests for OLRM on Democracy (Table 9)

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -45, 850.740 91, 755.480 age 8 -45, 849.130 91, 768.250 3.228 0.919 gender 8 -45, 825.040 91, 720.080 51.398 0.00000 education 8 -45, 841.080 91, 752.170 19.310 0.013 elites 16 -45, 772.220 91, 630.430 157.045 0 massmedia 8 -45, 839.600 91, 749.200 22.280 0.004 hdi 8 -45, 759.080 91, 588.170 183.314 0 religiosity 8 -45, 843.350 91, 756.690 14.787 0.063 trust 8 -45, 846.030 91, 762.070 9.414 0.309 societfreedom 8 -45, 816.960 91, 703.930 67.555 0 religfrac 8 -45, 806.070 91, 682.130 89.346 0 elites:massmedia 24 -45, 789.410 91, 680.820 122.657 0 elites:hdi 24 -45, 680.990 91, 463.970 339.509 0 massmedia:hdi 8 -45, 840.780 91, 751.570 19.915 0.011 elites:massmedia:hdi 24 -45, 793.120 91, 688.230 115.249 0

Table 13: Nominal Tests for OLRM on Islamic Law (Table 9)

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -49, 823.310 99, 714.620 age 15 -49, 693.630 99, 485.260 259.369 0 gender 15 -49, 794.600 99, 687.190 57.433 0.00000 education 15 -49, 743.620 99, 585.250 159.374 0 elites 30 -49, 743.620 99, 585.250 159.374 0 massmedia 15 -49, 160.470 98, 418.940 1, 325.686 0 hdi 15 -49, 794.600 99, 687.190 57.433 0 religiosity 15 -49, 779.180 99, 656.350 88.274 0 trust 15 -49, 779.180 99, 656.350 88.274 0 societfreedom 15 -49, 779.180 99, 656.350 88.274 0 religfrac 15 -48, 720.470 97, 538.950 2, 205.677 0 elites:massmedia 45 -47, 446.030 95, 050.050 4, 754.570 0 elites:hdi 45 -47, 446.030 95, 050.050 4, 754.570 0 massmedia:hdi 15 -49, 517.820 99, 133.640 610.985 0 elites:massmedia:hdi 45 -47, 795.320 95, 748.640 4, 055.988 0

7 Table 14: Nominal Tests for OLRM on Gender (Table 9)

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -50, 377.740 100, 821.500 age 14 -50, 344.940 100, 783.900 65.593 0 gender 14 -50, 346.920 100, 787.800 61.638 0.00000 education 14 -50, 364.550 100, 823.100 26.378 0.023 elites 28 -50, 343.130 100, 808.300 69.212 0.00002 massmedia 14 -50, 364.580 100, 823.200 26.310 0.024 hdi 14 -50, 305.960 100, 705.900 143.552 0 religiosity 14 -50, 343.820 100, 781.600 67.846 0 trust 14 -50, 371.400 100, 836.800 12.677 0.552 societfreedom 14 -50, 371.400 100, 836.800 12.677 0.552 religfrac 14 -50, 220.030 100, 534.100 315.426 0 elites:massmedia 42 -50, 332.890 100, 815.800 89.703 0.00003 elites:hdi 42 -50, 270.670 100, 691.300 214.143 0 massmedia:hdi 14 -50, 367.930 100, 829.900 19.625 0.142 elites:massmedia:hdi 42 -50, 335.230 100, 820.500 85.024 0.0001

Table 15: Nominal Tests for OLRM on Interest Rates (Table 9)

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -24, 477.050 48, 996.100 age 2 -24, 438.960 48, 923.920 76.185 0 gender 2 -24, 471.880 48, 989.760 10.347 0.006 education 2 -24, 472.950 48, 991.900 8.201 0.017 elites 4 -24, 468.310 48, 986.610 17.489 0.002 massmedia 2 -24, 472.790 48, 991.580 8.527 0.014 hdi 2 -24, 462.940 48, 971.880 28.223 0.00000 religiosity 2 -24, 452.040 48, 950.090 50.016 0 trust 2 -24, 472.680 48, 991.350 8.750 0.013 societfreedom 2 -24, 420.790 48, 887.590 112.517 0 religfrac 2 -24, 469.610 48, 985.210 14.889 0.001 elites:massmedia 6 -24, 461.010 48, 976.020 32.081 0.00002 elites:hdi 6 -24, 454.060 48, 962.110 45.991 0.00000 massmedia:hdi 2 -24, 470.840 48, 987.680 12.421 0.002 elites:massmedia:hdi 6 -24, 456.580 48, 967.160 40.944 0.00000

8 Table 16: Nominal Tests for OLRMs with Elites on Democracy

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -45, 703.570 91, 461.130 age 8 -45, 701.910 91, 473.810 3.321 0.913 gender 8 -45, 677.570 91, 425.130 52.001 0.00000 education 8 -45, 694.260 91, 458.530 18.609 0.017 elites 16 -45, 625.730 91, 337.460 155.673 0 religiosity 8 -45, 695.790 91, 461.590 15.548 0.049 trust 8 -45, 698.430 91, 466.850 10.279 0.246 country 88 -45, 122.990 90, 475.980 1, 161.157 0

Table 17: Nominal Tests for OLRMs with Elites on Islamic Law

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -48, 750.290 97, 568.590 age 15 -48, 626.500 97, 351.000 247.588 0 gender 15 -48, 721.240 97, 540.490 58.100 0.00000 education 15 -48, 675.030 97, 448.070 150.522 0 elites 30 -48, 635.030 97, 450.070 160.534 0 religiosity 15 -48, 710.030 97, 518.070 80.521 0 trust 15 -48, 735.020 97, 450.220 150.700 0 country

Table 18: Nominal Tests for OLRMs with Elites on Gender

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -49, 927.320 99, 920.640 age 14 -49, 891.590 99, 877.170 71.467 0 gender 14 -49, 896.430 99, 886.860 61.781 0.00000 education 14 -49, 905.600 99, 905.200 43.437 0.0001 elites 28 -49, 892.640 99, 907.290 69.352 0.00002 religiosity 14 -49, 893.960 99, 881.910 66.728 0 trust 14 -49, 921.090 99, 936.180 12.462 0.569 country

9 Table 19: Nominal Tests for OLRMs with Elites on Interest Rates

Df logLik AIC LRT Pr(>Chi) -24, 344.220 48, 730.440 age 2 -24, 304.910 48, 655.820 78.631 0 gender 2 -24, 339.410 48, 724.830 9.619 0.008 education 2 -24, 339.760 48, 725.530 8.920 0.012 elites 4 -24, 331.190 48, 712.370 26.076 0.00003 religiosity 2 -24, 320.140 48, 686.290 48.160 0 trust 2 -24, 340.050 48, 726.110 8.340 0.015 country 22 -23, 985.220 48, 056.430 718.016 0

10 Table 20: Classification of Political Parties

Islamist Parties Secular Parties 1 Movement of Society for Peace [Algeria] National Liberal Front[Algeria] 2 Islamic Renaissance Movement [Algeria] National Democratic Rally [Algeria] 3 al-Wafd (Delegation Party)[Egypt] Workers’ Party [Algeria] 4 Freedom & [Egypt] The [Algeria] 5 The Virtue Party (al-Fadyla) [Egypt] Rally for Culture & Democracy [Algeria] 6 The Dignity Party (Hizb al-Karama) [Egypt] The Free Egyptians’ Party (Hizb al Masriyeen al Ahrar) [Egypt] 7 Al Nour Party (Hizb al Nour) [Egypt] Coalition of Youth Revolution [Egypt] 8 Islamic Call Party (al da’wa) [Egypt] New National Party [Egypt] 9 The [Iraq] Democratic Front Party (al Gabha al Dimuqrati) [Egypt] 10 [Iraq] Justice Party (Hizb al-Adala) [Egypt] 11 Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq [Iraq] Peasants & Workers’ Party [Egypt] 12 The (Tawafuq) [Iraq] Centrist Party (al-Wasat) [Egypt] 13 Iraqi [Iraq] Egypt Arab [Egypt] 14 The Muslim Brotherhood [Iraq] Tomorrow Party (Hizb al-Ghad) [Egypt] 15 [Iraq] Building & Development Party (Hizb al Binaa w al-Tanmiya) [Egypt] 16 Islamic Charitable Associations[Iraq] Arab Democratic Nasserist Party [Egypt] 17 Islamic Arab Nationalist [Iraq] People’s Party [Egypt] 18 [Lebanon] Independents (Secular) [Egypt] 19 Islamic Charitable Projects Association [Lebanon] Amr Moussa’s Party [Egypt] 20 Hamas [Palestine] (Wifaq) [Iraq] 21 Islamic Jihad Movement [Palestine] Communist Party [Iraq] 22 Independent Islamists [Palestine] al-Iraqiya List [Iraq] 23 National Congress Party [Sudan] [Iraq] 24 Popular Congress Party [Sudan] Iraqi Front for National Dialogue [Iraq] 25 The National Party (Umma) [Sudan] al-Hadba Coalition [Iraq] 26 Muslim Brotherhood [Sudan] Front [Iraq] 27 Yemeni Gathering for Reform (Hizb al-Islah) [Yemen] Kurdistan Democratic Party [Iraq] 28 Party of Justice & Development [Yemen] Kurdistan Democratic National Union [Iraq] 29 Annahda [Tunisia] Tajdeed Party [Iraq] 30 The Change Movement (Gorran) [Iraq] 31 National Reform Trend[Iraq] 32 Jordanian Democratic People’s Party (Hashed) [Jordan] 33 All Jordan Youth Commission [Jordan] 34 National Current Party [Jordan] 35 Arab Baath Party [Jordan] 36 Social Left Movement [Jordan] 37 Jordanian United Front [Jordan] 38 Economic Struggle [Jordan] 39 al-Resalah Party [Jordan] 40 al Riyadah Party [Jordan] 41 Social and Economic Party [Jordan] 42 Democratic Current[Jordan] 43 Lebanese Unification Movement [Lebanon] 44 [Lebanon] 45 Lebanese National Movement[Lebanon] 46 Progressive Socialist Party [Lebanon] 47 [Lebanon] 48 Syrian Social Nationalist Party [Lebanon] 49 The [Lebanon] 50 el- [Lebanon] 51 [Lebanon] 52 [Lebanon] 53 Baath Arab Socialist Party [Lebanon] 54 Dashnak Party (Armenian Revolutionary Federation) [Lebanon] 55 Lebanese Phalanges (Kataeb) Party [Lebanon] 56 National Liberation Party [Lebanon] 57 Popular Nasserite Organization [Lebanon] 58 Lebanese Democratic Movement [Lebanon] 59 Ramgavar Party [Lebanon] 60 National Dialogue Party [Lebanon] 61 [Lebanon] 62 [Lebanon] 63 Arab Liberation Party [Lebanon] 64 Avant Garde Social Democratic Party [Lebanon] 65 Palestinian People’s Party [Palestine] 66 Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine [Palestine] 67 [Palestine] 68 Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine [Palestine] 69 Palestine Democratic Union (Fida) [Palestine] 70 Palestinian National Initiative [Palestine] 71 Independents [Palestine] 72 Third Way [Palestine] 73 Umma Reform & Renewal Party [Sudan] 74 Umma Federal Party [Sudan] 75 Democratic Unionist Party [Sudan] 76 Sudan Communist Party [Sudan] 77 Baath Party in Sudan [Sudan] 78 Progressive Democratic Party [Tunisia] 79 Democratic Forum for Labor & Liberties [Tunisia] 80 Congress for the Republic [Tunisia] 81 Free Patriotic Union [Tunisia] 82 Democratic Modernist Pole [Tunisia] 83 al-Moubadara Party [Tunisia] 84 Tunis Horizonz Party [Tunisia] 85 Tunisian [Tunisia] 86 Movement for Renewal (ettajdid) [Tunisia] 87 Tunisian Communist Labor Party [Tunisia] 88 al-Watan Party [Tunisia] 89 The Glory Party (al-Majd) [Tunisia] 90 al-Iradah Party [Tunisia] 91 Progressive Struggle Party [Tunisia] 92 Unionist & Cultural Nation Party [Tunisia] 93 al-Mustaqbal Party [Tunisia] 94 National Democratic Movement [Tunisia] 95 People’s Petition for Freedom, Justice & Development [Tunisia] 96 Free Constitutional Tunisian Party (PLDT) [Tunisia] 97 el-Fadila Movement [Tunisia] 98 General People’s Congress [Yemen] 99 Joint Meeting Parties [Yemen] 100 Democratic Nasserite Party [Yemen] 101 Union of Popular Forces [Yemen] 102 League of the Sons of Yemen Party [Yemen] 103 Yemen Socialist Party [Yemen] 104 Arab Socialist Baath Party [Yemen] 105 Independents [Yemen] 106 National Rally of Independents[Yemen] 107 Socialist Union of Popular Forces [Yemen] 108 Independence Party (Istiqlal) [Yemen] 109 Party of Authenticity & Modernity [Yemen] 110 Unified Socialist Party [Yemen] 111 Labour Party [Yemen] 112 Front of Democratic Forces [Yemen] 113 Party of Progress & Socialism [Yemen] 114 Front of Independence & Shura [Yemen] 115 Unified Socialist Party [Yemen] 116 Labour Party [Yemen] 117 Front of Democratic Forces [Yemen] 118 Party of Progress & Socialism [Yemen] 119 Front of Independence & Shura [Yemen] 120 Unified Socialist Party [Yemen] 121 Green Left Party [Yemen] 122 National Ittihadi Congress [Yemen] 123 Constitutional Union Party [Yemen] 124 Avant-Garde Social Democratic Party [Yemen] 11