This Publication Was Prepared for the NSW Department of Planning and Environment in Association with the Greater Sydney Commissi
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This publication was prepared for the NSW Department of Planning and Environment in association with the Greater Sydney Commission for the purpose of district planning. No representation is made about the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the information in this document for any particular purpose nor should be assumed that the contents of the document represent the views of the NSW Government. The NSW Government its agents, consultants or employees shall not be liable for any damage which may occur to any person or organisation taking action or not on the basis of this publication. Readers should seek appropriate advice when applying the information to their specic needs. This document may be subject to revision without notice. Project director Chris Abery [email protected] +61 3 8825 5877 Project manager Matthew Lee [email protected] +61 3 8825 5895 Project Code DP1602 Client reference 45366417 Date 31 May 2016 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Table of Contents Figures 1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 Figure 1: Variation in store provision rates by District .................................................. 2 1.1 Background ................................................................................................ 1 Figure 2: Average supermarket store provision by LGA (persons per store) ............... 3 1.2 Study brief .................................................................................................. 1 Figure 3: Average DDS provision by LGA (persons per store) ...................................... 3 1.3 Report structure ......................................................................................... 1 Figure 4: Average supermarket store provision LGA .................................................... 4 Figure 5: Average DDS provision LGA............................................................................ 4 2. Retail development thresholds ................................................................ 2 Figure 6: Average supermarket store provision SA3 ..................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 2 Figure 7: Average DDS provision SA3 ............................................................................ 5 2.2 Average Sydney store provision rates ........................................................ 2 Figure 8: Average supermarket store provision SA4 ..................................................... 6 2.3 Supermarket thresholds ............................................................................. 7 Figure 9: Average DDS provision SA4 ............................................................................ 6 2.4 Discount department store thresholds .................................................... 10 Figure 10: Schofields supermarket timing..................................................................... 8 2.5 Summary .................................................................................................. 12 Figure 11: Ropes Crossing supermarket timing ............................................................. 8 3. Retail floorspace distribution ................................................................. 13 Figure 12: Jordan Springs supermarket timing ............................................................. 8 3.1 Retail hierarchies ...................................................................................... 13 Figure 13: The Ponds supermarket timing .................................................................... 9 3.2 Regions for floorspace comparisons ........................................................ 13 Figure 14: Oran Park supermarket timing ..................................................................... 9 3.3 Regional floorspace distribution............................................................... 13 Figure 15: Spring Farm supermarket timing.................................................................. 9 4. Monitoring retail floorspace supply ....................................................... 15 Figure 16: Rouse Hill DDS timing ................................................................................. 10 4.1 Sydney retail floorspace dataset .............................................................. 15 Figure 17: Stanhope Gardens DDS timing ................................................................... 11 4.2 Sydney Retail Census option .................................................................... 16 Figure 18: Carnes Hill DDS timing ................................................................................ 11 4.3 Recommended approach ......................................................................... 17 Figure 19: Oran Park DDS timing ................................................................................. 11 Figure 20: Regions for floorspace distribution analysis............................................... 14 Tables Table 1: Summary of floorspace distribution for selected regions ............................. 14 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Study brief 1.3 Report structure This consultancy has been commissioned by the NSW The overall purposes of the study are as follows: Chapter 2 presents analysis of the relationship between Department of Planning and Environment (“DP&E”) in residential development, population growth and the response to Action 1.7.2 ofA Plan for Growing Sydney (“The Stage 1: Estimate demand for retail floorspace generated attraction of new shopping centre anchor tenants as a basis Plan”) which states: by projected population growth, at Local Government Area for providing catchment population thresholds when (‘LGA’) and District-level scales for 2021, 2026, and 2031; planning new growth areas. “The Government will support local councils to plan for Stage 2: Prepare a comprehensive database of the existing adequate retail and commercial capacity in centres by supply of retail floorspace in the SydneyMetropolitan Area, Chapter 3 draws on the retail supply data to examine the developing demand and supply data sets for office and and refine the results of Stage 1 in light of these findings; distribution of centres with respect to population within retail development”. and defined regions. Stage 3: Provide recommendations on monitoring future The creation of a reliable retail floorspace dataset will help retail floorspace supply. Chapter 4 examines the alternatives for producing and to accurately forecast demand, assess future land maintaining an accurate estimate of retail floorspace requirements and assist councils and infrastructure Stage 3 responds to the following items set out in the study provision for planning purposes, and provides providers to plan for growth. The information will also assist brief: recommendations on the most cost-effective solutions, in the preparation of District Plans. along with information on how this dataset can be • Assess the linkages between residential growth on maintained over time. Sydney’s fringe and the development of corresponding additional retail centres to service these communities; • Develop comparative indicators which spatially identify the distribution of retail centres compared with population; • Provide advice about the benefits that producing a more comprehensive audit based retail demand and supply data set will have for Sydney and NSW; • Recommend best practice for developing and managing the retail floorspace supply database over time including monitoring and review of data; and • Outline the steps involved in developing and monitoring the datasets including the sources and assumptions. Retail demand and supply consultancy – Stage Three report deep end services pty ltd 1 2. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT THRESHOLDS 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Average Sydney store provision rates The average population per DDS ranges from 43,000 persons in the South West and West Central districts, to as Retail development thresholds refer to the size (in Retail development thresholds for new supermarkets and many as 90,000 persons in the North District where DDS population terms) of a surrounding catchment which is DDS’s are generally well below the average provision rate provision is very low. necessary to support the development or expansion of a for these types of stores across metropolitan Sydney as a shopping centre. whole. Figure 1: Variation in store provision rates by District Shopping centres in growth areas are typically established This is because of a willingness by major supermarket and 13,000 100,000 with supermarkets as the main anchor tenant. Population DDS operators to develop stores ahead of demand in thresholds for new supermarkets therefore provide an growth areas, especially where they can gain first-mover 12,500 90,000 indication of timing for the initial provision of grocery and advantage to secure a share of the market at a time