ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 21, No. 1 (BG)

Sept 2019

Bulgaria political briefing: LOCAL ELECTIONS IN BULGARIAN CAPITAL WILL INDICATE THE BALANCE OF THE POLITICAL POWERS Evgeniy Kandilarov

1052 Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

LOCAL ELECTIONS IN BULGARIAN CAPITAL WILL INDICATE THE BALANCE OF THE POLITICAL POWERS

The most important topic at the beginning of the new political season in is the forthcoming local elections scheduled for October 27 2019. If results are not decisive at the first round, a second round will be held on November 3. Within this topic the race for mayor is in the focus of public attention since the local elections in Sofia often show the balance of political powers in Bulgaria. From that point of view the elections in Bulgarian capital are turning out to be a symbolic, important and difficult battle with national charge and impact. This is the main issue that Bulgarians will be paying attention to over the next few months. One day before the beginning of the autumn session of the Bulgarian National Assembly the political emotions ran high after two people who were until now expected to run for mayor of Bulgaria’s capital officially announced their candidatures. The acting mayor of Sofia officially confirmed that she would run again for mayor of Sofia and several hours later, the national Ombudsman announced that she would also join the race for mayor of the . Manolova’s announcement ends months of speculation about her possible candidacy. In Sofia, the ruling right-wing party, GERB nominated Yordanka Fandakova to run for mayor, but a candidate of another right-wing formation (Democratic Bulgaria) will run for mayor of Bulgaria’s capital as well. Fandakova’s main opponent Maya Manolova was a popular figure in the Bulgarian Socialist party in the near past. However, she refused to be nominated by the Bulgarian Socialist Party and preferred to be the candidate of an independent initiative committee instead. Whether BSP will support Manolova at the forthcoming local elections depends on the decision of the Sofia organization of the party, but it will most likely do so. Maya Manolova was elected Ombudsman in 2015. Her term in that post would have come to an end in 2020. Manolova has a master’s degree in law and a master’s degree in economics from the University of National and World Economy. She was a member of Parliament from 2005 to 2015 from the BSP. Manolova was also a Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly at the time of the 2013/14 during the government of the Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski. In 2016, some BSP structures nominated her to be the party’s candidate in that year’s presidential elections, but in August, she withdrew, citing “backroom deals” that had fixed the outcome of the selection. Manolova, whose popularity has been built up by her occupancy of the office of Ombudsman, is certain to be a strong rival to incumbent Sofia mayor Yordanka Fandukova, a

1 deputy leader of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s GERB party, and who said on earlier on September 2 that she would seek a fourth term as mayor. According to a sociological survey of Gallup International among Sofia residents on topical socio-political topics, held in early August, 56% of Sofia residents want a new mayor and 29% - Yordanka Fandakova to remain in office. According to the same survey the poor infrastructure, rebuilding and dirty air remain major problems for Sofia residents. The capital, however, continues to give more opportunities for realization. Among the benefits, the respondents also point to green spaces, the economic development of the city and transport, but the general criticism towards politicians also leads to a desire for political change, which is reflected in the hypothetical clash of the upcoming local elections between the current mayor Yordanka Fandakova and Ombudsman Maya Manolova. 46 per cent of the respondents believe that Sofia has been developing poorly in recent years. Half of the respondents were satisfied with the work of the current mayor. 37% are not satisfied, and 13% cannot estimate. BSP supporters and Democratic Bulgaria have the greatest desire for change, and one-third of GERB supporters cannot categorically nominate Fandakova for another term. According to the same sociological survey, Manolova will receive 8% more votes than GERB’s nominee Fandakova at the local elections and that perhaps half of the supporters of the United Patriots coalition and the Democratic Bulgaria coalition will vote for Manolova at the run-off elections and the other half will prefer Fandakova. The forecasts and the hypotheses related to the local elections in Sofia attract huge attention, because a possible victory of Maya Manolova would undermine the positions of GERB at a local level as well as in this country’s government. However, the local elections are a big challenge to the other political forces as well. The Bulgarian Socialist party performed below expectations at the elections for European Parliament this spring and a defeat at the local elections this autumn would allow the internal party opposition to put more pressure on the party’s leader Kornelia Ninova and the central leadership. VMRO and NFSB, which are still formally part of the United Patriots coalition, have not yet decided on their coalitions for the local elections. However, the two political parties made it clear that they will not enter in coalition with Ataka party. Yordanka Fandukova, a deputy leader of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB party, has been mayor of Sofia since November 2009. Announcing that she will run again for being reelected as a mayor she pointed out that not standing for a further term would be a betrayal of the citizens for whom she had been working for the past 10 years. Fandukova said that her decision to stand had not been taken overnight, but had been well thought through receiving the support of all GERB structures in Sofia, the executive committee of the party and

2 the Prime Minister. She pointed out also that her motives for joining the battle for a new term arose from her commitment to the city’s development, new projects, new ideas and attracting new people. Fandukova indicated that the candidate list for the Sofia municipal elections would see new faces – including “leading experts, as well as young people” – nominated for her team. Fandakova said she would work with a new team. She added that not everything has been perfect in her work, that she has made mistakes, but will try to improve it with new people and better projects. Her priorities will be the development of the residential areas, the construction of 8 new parks and digitalization of the municipal administration. Fandukova promised also a new ideas and a new team, and said that she was in excellent shape. Initially Education Minister in Borissov’s first Cabinet, she was GERB’s candidate to succeed Borissov as Sofia mayor when he quit the post to become head of government in 2009 becoming the first woman in this office. Prior to her brief spell in the National Assembly and then the Cabinet, Fandukova, a former high school director, had since 2005 been Borissov’s deputy mayor in charge of culture and education. Fandukova was re-elected mayor of Sofia in regular municipal elections in 2011 and 2015. In October 2019, Fandukova will become the longest-serving mayor in the history of Sofia. While Fandukova previously has won decisive victories in Sofia mayoral elections, in 2019 some factors have changed. Tsvetan Tsvetanov, the organiser of GERB structures and victories in a succession of elections is no longer head of the party’s election staff. Further, Fandukova has been targeted for criticism over the handling of renovation projects in public spaces and streets in the Bulgarian capital city. Furthermore, a chance for the left-wing candidate Maya Manolova is the fact that there will be competition for votes in the centre-right and reformist spectrum in Sofia in the autumn 2019 elections. The reformist Democratic Bulgaria has announced that architect Borislav Ivanov will be its Sofia mayoral candidate. The Spasi Sofia (“Save Sofia”) group, a consistent critic of infrastructure and renovation projects in the Bulgarian capital city, is nominating business administration and economics graduate Boris Bonev. On the other hand, Maya Manolova pointed out that In the motives for her resignation, is that the legislature had neglected the work of the Ombudsman by deliberately delaying or suspending legislative proposals submitted by her. She also said that Sofia municipal councilors were ignoring the problems of the city residents and that the promised reforms in key sectors did not take place. At the same time according to her the money of the citizens of Sofia are sinking without trace in the municipal companies. The government “has erected a high wall of indifference, with which it safeguards business interests”. During the start of her campaign at 4 th of September she criticized the current city government that Sofia is dirty, unclean and

3 breathing very hard. Sofia has been rebuilt. Sofia is difficult to navigate. Sofia is robbed, insecure and shrouded in the tentacles of corruption. Finally, Manolova used a metaphor that In Sofia, “only sharks feel in their waters, so we see their fins in the city center”. According to her that is why all political parties have a fault, but the main fault lies with GERB, which has been running the city for 14 years. Manolova was very keen arguing that currently, “there is no mayor in Sofia but an executive director whose job is only to implement the decisions of a solid friendly circle”. According to sociological surveys, Maya Manolova has by far the highest personal rating among the residents of Sofia. She is the public figure with the highest approval in Sofia, which is about 3% lower than the national figure registered in the summer months At the same time another good chance for her campaign is the fact that the people’s attitude generally against political parties may play a more serious role than previous elections in the capital. In this context, civic engagement, or at least commitment and identification with citizens' interests, can be a successful move. Some analyses compare the situation to the election of Roumen Radev as President in 2016. Radev stood, not as a BSP candidate, but on a ticket backed by the BSP. In a second- round election, he defeated the GERB candidate. If similar situation will happen on the local election in Sofia remains to be seen.

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