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A.P. Møller - Mærsk BBB+ Industry (GICS): Marine Stable Sector (Nordea): Shipping and Transportation

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A.P. Møller - Mærsk BBB+ Industry (GICS): Marine Stable Sector (Nordea): Shipping and Transportation Update Credit Research 4 March 2015 A.P. Møller - Mærsk BBB+ Industry (GICS): Marine Stable Sector (Nordea): Shipping and Transportation Key info Country Denmark Rating downgrade to BBB+ Bloomberg debt MAERSK Corp Maersk posted 2014 earnings in line with our expectations, generating Bloomberg equity MAERSKb DC strong margins and sound cash flow generation. The divestment of its Moody's Baa1/Stable S&P BBB+/Stable Danske Bank stake to fund an extraordinary dividend to its Market cap.(bn) USD 47.96/DKK 319.51 shareholders is not credit positive, but the group's overall credit profile Nordea Markets - Analysts nevertheless remains healthy. Lars Kirkeby +47 22 48 4264 Chief analyst, Credit Full-year 2014 earnings in line with our expectations [email protected] Maersk posted full-year 2014 earnings in line with our expectations, Kristoffer B. Pedersen +47 22 48 79 80 generating strong earnings and sound operating cash flow. The Maersk Line Analyst and APM Terminals segments continued on their positive trend, while [email protected] Maersk Drilling's performance was in line with 2013. Unsurprisingly, Sales by business area – 2014 Maersk Oil generated weaker earnings y/y, but the segment still achieved Other healthy operating margins. Maersk 10% Drilling 4% Not a disaster to distribute Danske Bank stake to shareholders APM The extraordinary dividend distribution to its shareholders is neutral, from Terminals 9% a credit perspective. Maersk's stake in Danske Bank has tied up significant Maersk Line 57% capital and has not contributed much to its operating cash flow. Furthermore, during the previous financial crisis, Maersk provided Maersk Oil 18% significant liquidity support in Danske Bank's equity offering, to maintain its ownership interest. Source: Company data Credit view EBITDA by business area – 2014 We downgrade our view of Maersk to BBB+ from A-, while maintaining Other the stable outlook, reflecting our view of a Satisfactory business risk profile Maersk 5% Drilling 8% and a Modest to Intermediate financial risk profile. The downgrade reflects our view that the overall business risk profile has weakened following the APM Terminals divestment of its grocery retail operations. However, Maersk's overall 9% Maersk Line 35% credit profile is still healthy, with strong credit metrics and sound cash flow generation. Maersk Oil 43% Source: Company data Key credit metrics and ratios (adjusted numbers) USDm 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E EBITDA 15,925 11,929 17,019 16,374 14,109 13,499 14,046 12,935 14,122 15,055 - margin 27% 24% 37% 33% 29% 28% 30% 30% 31% 31% EBIT 11,332 4,608 10,689 9,901 8,465 8,045 6,626 7,147 7,988 8,742 - margin 19% 9% 23% 20% 17% 17% 14% 16% 17% 18% Shareholders' equity 27,952 28,722 32,305 33,792 36,896 39,829 41,542 43,762 46,049 48,641 Debt 21,106 34,998 32,438 34,339 32,080 27,719 23,709 23,659 23,684 23,759 Debt/(Debt+Equity) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 FFO/Debt 38.0% 19.4% 31.2% 23.3% 27.8% 32.8% 59.3% 36.4% 41.1% 44.2% FOCF/Debt -7.5% -7.3% 18.7% -2.5% 3.4% 15.4% 42.2% 7.3% 6.8% 6.0% DCF/Debt -10.1% -8.8% 17.8% -4.8% 0.9% 12.0% 37.4% -20.6% 2.1% 0.9% EBITDA interest coverage 10.9 6.9 10.4 10.1 9.1 9.5 10.7 11.0 12.2 12.8 Debt/EBITDA 1.3 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 ROC 22.6% 8.0% 16.4% 14.7% 12.2% 11.6% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5% 12.2% Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Markets IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT A.P. Møller - Mærsk 4 March 2015 Divesting Danske Bank stake Maersk posted 2014 earnings in line with our expectations, generating strong margins and sound cash flow. The major news in the group's annual report was the divestment of its 20.05% stake in Danske Bank. 2014 earnings in line with our Maersk posted full-year 2014 earnings in line with our expectations, expectations generating strong earnings and sound operating cash flow. The group's turnover remained unchanged from 2013, while adjusted EBITDA (excluding estimated operating lease expenses) increased by 4% and the overall adjusted EBITDA margin strengthened to 30% (2013: 28%). Significantly stronger earnings from Maersk Line maintained its lead on the rest of the industry, delivering Maersk Line strong earnings and higher profitability. The improvement was mainly due to higher volumes and lower unit costs from continued optimisation. The segment's reported turnover and EBITDA increased y/y by 4% and 27%, respectively, while the segment's reported EBITDA margin strengthened to 15.4% (2013: 12.6%). Maersk Oil negatively affected by Maersk Oil's financial performance was negatively affected by the sharp lower oil prices decline in oil prices during the fourth quarter, albeit partly offset by higher entitlement production. Maersk Oil's entitlement production increased by 7% over 2013, to 251,000 barrels per day, as a result of improved operational performance and production from new projects, as well as a higher share of production from Qatar. Nevertheless, the segment's reported turnover and EBITDA fell y/y by 4% and 11%, respectively, while its reported EBITDA margin weakened to 58.6% (2013: 63.0%). Segment Maersk Line, USDm Segment Maersk Oil, USDm Maersk Line Maersk Oil 30 000 20% 15 000 100% 25 000 80% 15% 10 000 20 000 60% 15 000 10% 40% 5 000 10 000 5% 20% 5 000 0 0% 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Strong rebound in APM Terminals APM Terminals posted higher earnings in 2014, positively affected by volume and margin growth, as well as divestment gains. The segment's reported turnover and EBITDA increased y/y by 3% and 13% respectively, while the segment's reported EBITDA margin strengthened to 22.7% (2013: 20.6%). Stable operations in Maersk Drilling Maersk Drilling's full-year 2014 earnings were in line with 2013. The financial performance benefited from high operational uptime, as well as gains relating to the divestment of the Venezuelan activities. However, the high number of planned rig yard stays and start-up costs contributed negatively to earnings. The segment's reported turnover and EBITDA increased y/y by 7% and 5%, respectively, while the segment's reported EBITDA margin weakened slightly to 43.0% (2013: 43.8%). Nordea Markets 2 A.P. Møller - Mærsk 4 March 2015 Segment APM Terminals Segment Maersk Drilling APM Terminals Maersk Drilling 5000 23% 2500 50% 4000 22% 2000 40% 3000 1500 30% 21% 2000 1000 20% 1000 20% 500 10% 0 19% 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Stable operating cash flow, but The group's reported operating cash flow was in line with the previous somewhat higher capex year, at USD 8.8bn (2013: USD 8.7bn), while net capex increased to USD 6.2bn (2013: USD 4.9bn). The higher capex was mainly attributable to deliveries of newbuilds in Maersk Drilling and Maersk Line, as well as increased oil field developments in Maersk Oil. Outstanding capital commitments Maersk continues to prioritise investments in the core businesses Maersk related to newbuild programme of Line, Maersk Oil, APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling. As of year-end USD 3.2bn 2014, the group's newbuild programme stood at 47 vessels, with expected delivery in the period 2015-18. The outstanding capital commitments related to the newbuild programme amounted to about USD 3.2bn. With a reported operating cash flow of USD 8.8bn for full-year 2014, we are of the opinion that Maersk has ample financial flexibility to pursue its growth ambitions. Distributing the value of its Danske The Maersk board of directors has proposed an ordinary dividend of DKK Bank stake to its shareholders as 300 per share. In addition to the ordinary dividend, the board has proposed extraordinary dividend an extraordinary cash dividend equal to the prevailing market value of the group's 20.05% ownership interest in Danske Bank. Extraordinary distribution to The extraordinary dividend distribution to its shareholders is credit neutral, shareholders is credit neutral in our in our view. Maersk's stake in Danske Bank has tied up significant capital view and has not contributed greatly to its operating cash flow. Furthermore, during the previous financial crisis, Maersk chose to participate with significant liquidity support in Danske Bank's equity offering to maintain its ownership interest. Guidance for 2015 The group expects an underlying net profit slightly below USD 4bn, excluding any effects from the divestment of its stake in Danske Bank. Maersk Line expects a higher underlying result than for 2014, helped by further cost reductions and implementation of the new 2M alliance. Maersk Oil expects a significantly lower underlying result for 2015, mainly due to expectations of lower oil prices. Nordea Markets 3 A.P. Møller - Mærsk 4 March 2015 Credit profile considerations Supportive business risk profile The business risk profile is supported by: elements Maersk being one of the world's largest industrial conglomerates with excellent diversification characteristics Strong international market positions Strong financial profile with ample cash flow generation Excellent operational track record.
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