מכון ירושלים JERUSALEM למחקרי מדיניות INSTITUTE FOR POLICY RESEARCH

Migration to and from Jerusalem 2017 Michal Korach, Maya Choshen Jubilee Program

Migration to and from Jerusalem 2017

Michal Korach, Dr. Maya Choshen

Jerusalem, 2020 The English edition was made possible through the generous support of our partners:

«§ª·£¶§¥£¸§²ª¸£·¶¢ THE JERUSALEM DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research | Publication no. 521

Jubilee Program

Migration to and from Jerusalem 2017 Michal Korach, Dr. Maya Choshen

Translation from Hebrew to English: Avi Hoffmann

© 2020, The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research The Hay Elyachar House 20 Radak St., 9218604 Jerusalem jerusaleminstitute.org.il [email protected] Contents

Introduction...... 4

Abstract...... 5

Migration to and from Jerusalem...... 7

Immigration to Jerusalem...... 9 Immigration by District...... 9 Immigration by Locality of Origin...... 10 Immigration by Age...... 11 Immigration by Locality and Age...... 11 Immigration by Jerusalem Neighborhood...... 13

Emigration from Jerusalem...... 15 Emigration by Destination Districts...... 15 Emigration by Destination ...... 16 Emigration by Age...... 17 Emigration by Destination and Age...... 18 Emigration by Neighborhood in Jerusalem...... 20

Jerusalem's Migration Balance...... 23 Migration Balance by District...... 23 Migration Balance by Locality...... 24 Migration Balance by Age...... 25 Migration Balance by Locality and Age...... 26 Migration Balance by Jerusalem Neighborhood...... 27

Migration of Ultra-Orthodox Population to and from Jerusalem...... 28 Introduction

This research is part of a series of studies conducted by the Jerusalem Institute for Policy Migration to and from Jerusalem Research for the Ministry of Jerusalem and Heritage, as part of the Jerusalem “Jubilee” Program for the Economic Development of Jerusalem. The first migration study in this program was conducted in 2012 and has been updated every year since. The current study relates to 2017.

The study examines the extent of the migration, the characteristics of the migrants, the localities of origin of the migrants, their destinations and more. The research is based on the annual data of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

4 5 Abstract

Immigration to Jerusalem

In 2017, 11,100 new residents moved to Jerusalem from other localities in Israel. This number was the highest since 2010, when a similar number immigrated. In 2016, 9,700 new residents relocated to Jerusalem.

The largest number of newcomers to the city (40%) originated in areas surrounding Jerusalem (Judea and Samaria and the Jerusalem District), with 34% from areas surrounding Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv District and the Central District). Most migrants to Jerusalem came from the following localities: Bnei Brak (690), Beit Shemesh (670), Tel Aviv (610), Ma'aleh Adumim (400) and Beitar Illit (370). These localities are diverse in character and include secular, religious and ultra-orthodox Israelis.

Almost half (47%) of the migrants to the city were young (20-34 years old). Children and young adults comprised the main age groups: 25-29 (19%), 20-24 (17%), 0-4 (13%) and 30-34 (11%).

Those migrating to Jerusalem from ultra-orthodox localities, or from localities with a large ultra-orthodox population, were mainly families with children. Among the migrants from Tel Aviv, Haifa and Be’er Sheva, the percentage of young people (aged 20-34) was very high (52%-57%). A significant number of these young people moved to the city for higher education.

Emigration from Jerusalem

During 2017, 17,100 residents left Jerusalem for other localities in Israel. This figure was somewhat lower than in 2016, when it was 17,700.

4 5 The areas surrounding Jerusalem (Judea and Samaria and the Jerusalem District) attract most of those leaving the city (46%), while 35% moved to the Tel Aviv area (Tel Aviv District and the Central District).

The main localities to which Jerusalem residents relocated were: Tel Aviv (1,620), Beit Shemesh (1,450), Betar Illit (1,060), Giv'at Ze'ev (620), Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut (540) and Bnei Brak (510), indicating that those leaving Jerusalem were varied and included secular, religious and ultra-orthodox residents. Migration to and from Jerusalem Young people (aged 20-34) were the largest group to leave the city – 44%. The main age groups emigrating were: 0-4 (18% of the total), 25-29 (18%) and 20-24 (14%). Among those leaving for ultra-orthodox localities or localities where there is a large ultra- orthodox population, the high percentage of young people aged 20-24 and children aged 0-4 indicates that those leaving were young couples with small children. Those leaving for non-ultra-orthodox localities were older.

Jerusalem's Migration Balance

The number of people leaving Jerusalem was greater than the number of those moving to it, so the city's migration balance was negative. However, the deficit is decreasing. In 2017 the balance was minus 6,000 (significantly lower than 2016’s balance of minus 8,000). This was the lowest recorded since 2008.

The high negative migration balance in 2017 was mainly credited to the area surrounding Jerusalem (Jerusalem District and Judea and Samaria) – minus 3,400 (57% of the negative balance). The negative balance with the Tel Aviv District (Tel Aviv and Central District) was minus 2,200 (36%).

The localities with which Jerusalem had the highest negative migration balance were Tel Aviv (minus 1,010), Beit Shemesh (minus 780), Beitar Illit (minus 690), Modi'in- Maccabim-Re'ut (minus 390), Kiryat Ye'arim (minus 320), Giv'at Ze'ev (minus 250) and Ramat Gan (minus 230).

The principal age groups which exited Jerusalem were: Ages 0-4, -1,630 (27%); 30-34, -950 (16%); 25-29, -920 (15%) and 5-9, -500 (8%).

6 7 Migration to and from Jerusalem

In 2017, 17,100 residents left Jerusalem for other parts of the country, while 11,100 moved to Jerusalem from other localities in Israel. Because the number of emigrants was greater than the number of immigrants, the migration balance was minus 6,000. The migration balance in 2017 was considerably lower than that recorded in 2016 (minus 8,000) and the lowest since 2008, when the balance was minus 4,900. The population migrating to and from Jerusalem consisted mainly of Jews, and a small number of Arabs (3%-4%).1

Jerusalem's negative migration balance is often a topic in public discourse and in the media with the implication, that Jerusalem is the only one of the country's three main cities with a negative migration balance. However, the data show that both Tel Aviv and Haifa have negative migration balances. In 2017, Tel Aviv's negative balance was minus 1,500, while Haifa's balance was minus 2,400. The proportional migration rate (the migration balance per 1,000 city residents) in Jerusalem was minus 7 in 2017. This meant that the city lost 7 residents per 1,000 to migration. The proportional rate of migration of the Jewish population (as noted, most of the migrants were Jewish) was minus 11. In Tel Aviv and Haifa, the proportional rate of migration was minus 3 and minus 9, respectively.

1 This refers to Israeli Arabs. East Jerusalem Arabs rarely migrate and, if they do, almost never report it, so they are not included in the data.

6 7 Migration Balance of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa, 2013-2017

Jerusalem – total Jerusalem – Jews Tel Aviv – total Haifa – total 0

nce a s) Migration to and from Jerusalem l d a n B

n -5 u sa io o t h r a (t g M i -10

-15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Proportional Migration Balance of Jeruslem, Tel Aviv and Haifa, 2013-2017

Jerusalem – total Jerusalem – Jews Tel Aviv – total Haifa – total

) 0 s t ce n n a de l a si B

n -5 tio a g r M i (per 1,000 r e

-10

-15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8 9 Immigration to Jerusalem

In 2017, 11,100 new residents moved to Jerusalem from other localities in Israel. The number of people relocating to Jerusalem that year was high compared to the number of people immigrating in 2016, when 9,700 new residents moved in. The number of incoming residents in 2017 was the highest recorded since 2010, which saw similar number.

Immigration by District

The districts that provided the most migrants to Jerusalem in 2017 were: Judea and Samaria, 3,000 (27%); Central District, 1,900 (17%); Tel Aviv District, 1,900 (17%) and Southern District, 1,400 (12%). Jerusalem attracted many residents from the areas surrounding Jerusalem (Judea and Samaria and the Jerusalem District) – 40% of those

Immigration to Jerusalem, by District, 2017 5,000

4,000 s t n a

g r 3,000 M i

f o r 2,000 be

Nu m 1,000

0 l d a g g a m m rn rn n f n n r a r i i e e t e e l l a a

n h h a a Aviv l Aviv m H a s s l u t ea un di un di a C e o T e r u r u S T e r o r o No rt S J e J e Ju d u r u r S S

District Area

8 9 moving to the city came from these areas (4,400 residents). Additionally, the share of those entering from the Tel Aviv area (Tel Aviv and Central District) stood out – 34% (3,800 residents). The rise in incoming numbers in 2017 was due to a 20% increase in the number of residents immigrating from the areas surrounding Jerusalem – from 3,700 in 2016 to 4,400 in 2017. There was a 13% increase among those immigrating from the Tel Aviv area – from 3,300 to 3,800.

Migration to and from Jerusalem Immigration by Locality of Origin

The main localities from which the largest number of new residents moved to Jerusalem in 2017 were: Bnei Brak (690), Beit Shemesh (670), Tel Aviv (610), Ma'aleh Adumim (400) and Beitar Illit (370). These localities vary in character and include secular, religious and ultra-orthodox residents. However, there was an increase in the number of residents immigrating from ultra-orthodox communities, or those with a large ultra-orthodox population, such as Beit Shemesh2 and Bnei Brak, as well as Kochav Ya'akov, Elad, Giv'at Ze'ev, Kiryat Arba and Modi'in Illit.

Immigration to Jerusalem, by Main Localities, 2017

800

600 s t n a

g r 400 M i

f o r

be 200 Nu m

0 i

t t t r l k v it e h d n a n e l m f a s e o i r e i'i ' e a I lli I lli n va t r a it T e e i ' d B e d Zio e B B Aviv h G H a m um i Z e B e M a v as M o A s h A d S M e Locality

2 A large percentage of those immigrating to Jerusalem from Beit Shemesh were ultra-orthodox.

10 11 Immigration by Age

A remarkable number of young people were among those moving to Jerusalem – 47% of the immigrants were aged between 20 and 34. This was slightly higher than the percentage of young people leaving the city – 44%. The main age groups entering the city were: 25-29 (19%), 20-24 (17%), 0-4 (13%) and 30-34 (11%).

Immigration to Jerusalem, by Age, 2017 2,500

2,000 s t n

a 1,500 g r M i

f o

r 1,000 be Nu m 500

0 Immigration to Jerusalem 0-4 5-9 75+ 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

Age

Immigration by Locality and Age

There is a significantly different age distribution between those immigrating from localities with different characteristics. Among those originating in ultra-orthodox localities, or localities with a large ultra-orthodox population, the high percentage of young people (aged 20-34) and of children (aged 0-19) was noticeable. For example, 34%-44% of those moving to Jerusalem from Beit Shemesh, Modi'in Illit, Beitar Illit and Giv'at Ze'ev were 20-34 year olds (a high proportion of them aged 20-24) and 40%-54% were children aged 0-19 (many of them 0-4). This meant that most of the migrants from these localities were families with young children.

10 11 There was also a significantly high proportion (51%-63%) of young people (aged 20-34) from localities that are not in the Jerusalem area, such as: Tel Aviv, Haifa, Be’er Sheva, Rishon LeZion, Ramat Gan, Ra'anana, Rehovot and Petah Tikva. Many of these young people moved to the city to study in institutions of higher education. The percentage of young people coming from Bnei Brak was also very high (54%); a high proportion of these were aged 20-24.

On the other side of the age range, the localities that supplied the highest proportion of Migration to and from Jerusalem migrants to Jerusalem aged 50+ were: Ma'aleh Adumim (25%), Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut (23%), Herzliya (19%), Efrat (19%) and Netanya (19%).

Immigration to Jerusalem, by Main Localities and Age (precentage), 2017

100%

s 80% n t r a g 60% f M i o

e

g 40% a n t

rc e 20% P e 0% i t t t t r v k it d n n a h h e m f a e s e e o r e i'i ' I lli I lli l n r a it e v' a d B e m i d e i a Zio e B B Aviv ' h Ha i m u l Z G B e v as M o A s h T e A d M a S Locality M e

0-19 20-34 35-49 50+

12 13 Immigration by Jerusalem Neighborhood

The highest numbers of immigrants in 2017 were recorded in the following neighborhoods: Ramot Alon (800), Pisgat Ze'ev (630), Nachlaot (630), Kiryat HaYovel (530) and Geula and Mea She'arim (480). Most of the above-mentioned are large neighborhoods in terms of population and thus attracted the largest numbers of migrants. The highest rate of newcomers per 1,000 residents was recorded in the following neighborhoods: Mishkenot Ha'uma (a relatively new neighborhood, still being populated) with 133 newcomers per 1,000 residents, Nachlaot (67), Rehavia (59), City Center (57) and Talbieh (49). These neighborhoods (with the exception of Mishkenot Ha'uma) attract many young people and students and have a lively turnover of arriving and departing residents.

The ranking of the top neighborhoods that attracted the largest number of migrants in 2017 was similar to that of the previous three years.

Immigration to Jerusalem, by Main Neighborhood, 2017 (Number and Proportional Rate of Migrantion)

)

n n io t 1,600 150 tio a s t u la Immigration to Jerusalem g r n p a o p M i

g r 1,200 f l o a

100 t M i

e f t to / o 800 r R a ts

l n be a a

50 n g r i 400 io r t Nu m o mm i p

r o 0 0 w P e , l t t t t t r y v n e a h n m ( a ot a o o e e e o h t v e v i ' i ma g a a r i n u la l C it m r y r y n a e b u A l e l is ' Y o h Z k e ea K i K i a P c h G R a C e h h M os T a H R e H a S

N a M is M ea Neighborhood

Number of Migrants Proportional Rate of Migration

12 13 Immigrants to Jerusalem, by Main Neighborhood, 2014-2017*

2014 2015 2016 2017 680 740 680 800 Ramot Alon (1) (1) (1) (1) 540 600 540 630 Pisgat Ze'ev (3) (2) (2) (2)

Migration to and from Jerusalem 420 520 510 630 Nachlaot (7) (3) (3) (3) 480 440 420 550 Kiryat HaYovel (6) (7) (5) (4) 480 450 420 480 Geula, Mea She'arim (5) (6) (6) (5) 500 460 430 460 Katamon Alef-Tet (4) (5) (4) (6) 380 370 390 420 Rehavia (8) (9) (6) (7)

* The number in parentheses indicates the rank of the neighborhood according to a descending scale (the neighborhood receiving the largest number of new immigrants was designated number 1). The neighborhoods are ranked according to the number of new immigrants in 2017.

14 15 Emigration from Jerusalem

In 2017, 17,100 residents left Jerusalem for other localities in Israel. There had been a gradual decline in the magnitude of the exodus over the previous two years. In 2015, 18,100 left, with 17,700 leaving in 2016.

Emigration by Destination Districts

The districts that attracted the largest number of Jerusalem residents in 2017 were: Judea and Samaria (4,700 – 27%), Jerusalem District (3,200 – 19%), Tel Aviv District (3,100 – 18%) and Central District (2,800 – 16%). The area surrounding Jerusalem (Judea and Samaria and the Jerusalem District) was the most favored destination for those leaving the city, and 46% of the migrants moved there. About one-third (34%) moved to

Emigration from Jerusalem, by Destination District, 2017 8,000

6,000 s t n a

g r 4,000 M i

f o r be 2,000 Nu m

0 l a d g g a m m f rn rn i n n n r a r i e e t e e l l a a

n h h a a Aviv Aviv H a l l m s s u t ea un di un di a C e o T e T e r u r u S r o r o No rt S J e J e Ju d u r u r S S

District Area

14 15 localities surrounding Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv District and Central District). The decrease in the number of people leaving the city in 2017 is mainly due to the decrease in the number of people moving to the area around Jerusalem (from 8,350 in 2016 to 7,850 in 2017, a decrease of 500 people).

Emigration by Destination

Migration to and from Jerusalem The main destinations for those leaving Jerusalem in 2017 were: Tel Aviv (1,620), Beit Shemesh (1,450), Beitar Illit (1,060), Giv'at Ze'ev (620), Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut (540) and Bnei Brak (510). These destinations indicated that the migrants were varied in character and included secular, religious and ultra-orthodox people. In 2017, there was a significant decline in the number of people leaving for Beit Shemesh,3 with 1,450 migrants moving there, compared to 1,970 in 2016.

Emigration from Jerusalem, by Main Localities, 2017

2,000

1,500 s t n a g r

M i 1,000

f o r be 500 Nu m

0 l i t t t t t r v k it n n h n h n e m a a e s e a e r e i'i i'i ' I lli I lli T e l n r a it e v' a m B e G m i d d e i a Zio Aviv e B B ' m u Z G B R a e v as M o M o h A d M a S M e Locality

3 Most of those leaving for Beit Shemesh were ultra-orthodox.

16 17 Emigration by Age

Typically, migrants are young, and this is the case with migrants to and from Jerusalem. Among those leaving Jerusalem, the percentage of young people (aged 20-34) was prominent, and in 2017, 44% of those leaving were young.

The main age groups which left the city were: 0-4 (18%), 25-29 (18%) and 20-24 (14%). This showed that most of these migrants were young people and families with small children.

The age distribution of those leaving was different from the overall age distribution within Jerusalem's Jewish population.4 In 2017, the 0-4 age group represented 13% of the city's Jewish population; 25-29 was 7%, 20-24 was 8% and 30-34 was 7%. Hence, the proportion of young people leaving aged 20-34 (44%) was twice that of the Jewish population in Jerusalem (22%). However, as mentioned above, migrants are generally young, and this phenomenon is not unique to Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv, for comparison, 36% of those leaving in 2017 were young people aged 20-34. Among the young people who left

Emigration from Jerusalem, by Age, 2017 Emigration from Jerusalem + 90 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 Age 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 5% 0 5% 10% Percentage of Migrants

4 The findings refer only to the Jewish population, since most of the migrants were Jewish.

16 17 Tel Aviv, the largest group was 30-34 (57% of all young people who left). Another large age group was 35-44 (21%).5

Emigration by Destination and Age

Examining the main destinations together with age distribution revealed, among those leaving for ultra-orthodox localities or localities with a large ultra-orthodox population, Migration to and from Jerusalem a high percentage were young people aged 20-34 (particularly 20-24) and children aged 0-19 (particularly 0-4). For example, among those leaving for Beit Shemesh, Modi'in Illit and Beitar Illit, 18%-26% were aged 20-24 and 28%-34% were children aged 0-4. This means that most of those leaving for these localities were young couples with young children.

By comparison, of the many leaving for the main non-ultra-orthodox localities, such as Ma'aleh Adumim, Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut and Mevaseret Zion, the age group 20-24 only accounted for 2%-6% of all migrants. The population that moved to these localities was older and the main age groups were: 0-4 (14%-19%), 25-29 (10%-14%) and 30-34 (14%-17%). This means that even among those leaving for these localities, there was a high proportion of young couples with young children. However, the age of marriage and giving birth is higher among the non-ultra-orthodox population than among the ultra- orthodox. Among the ultra-orthodox, the high proportion of young couples in their early '20s was notable, while among the non-ultra-orthodox, the newly-married were in their late '20s and early '30s.

A different and unique picture emerged among those leaving for Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak. About 70% of those leaving for these cities were aged 20-34. Among the young people who left for Tel Aviv, the proportion of those aged 25-29 (53% of all young people who left) and 30-34 (32% of all young people who left), was noteworthy. Among the young people leaving for Bnei Brak, the proportion of 20-24 year olds (64% of all young people who left) stood out.

The highest percentage of migrants aged 50+ left for Ashkelon (28%), Ra'anana (25%), Netanya (24%), Rishon LeZion (22%), Bat Yam (21%), Modi'in-Maccabim-Re'ut (18%), Herzliya (18%) and Tel Aviv (14%).

5 We regret not having separate data for the 35-39 and 40-44 age groups.

18 19 Emigration from Jerusalem, by Main Destinations and Age, 2017 2,000

1,500

s 0-19 20-34 35-49 50+ t n a g r

M i 1,000

f o r be

Nu m 500

0 i t t t t t r v k i n n a h h n iv m f a e s e e i r e v i'i i'i ' I lli I lli l n e Te l r a it e v' a B e d d e i a Zio A e B B ' H a m um i Z G B e v as M o M o h A d M a S Destination M e

Emigration from Jerusalem, Emigration from Jerusalem by Main Destinations and Age (precentage), 2017

100%

ts 80% n

igr a 60% M o f

g e 40% t a n e

r c 20% e P 0% i l t t t t r v k it h h n n a n e m f a e s e e i r e i'i i'i ' I lli I lli l n T e r a it e v' a B e d d e i a Zio Aviv e B B ' H a m um i Z G B e v as M o M o h A d M a S Destination M e

0-19 20-34 35-49 50+

18 19 Emigration by Neighborhood in Jerusalem

The neighborhoods in Jerusalem that lost the largest number of residents (migration between localities only) in 2017 were: Ramot Alon 1,550 (9%), Pisgat Ze'ev 1,180 (7%), Geula and Mea She'arim 950 (6%), Gilo 800 (5%), Kiryat HaYovel 690 (4%) and Nachlaot 670 (4%). These neighborhoods are large in terms of population size and, as a result, had the largest number of people leaving. The ranking of the main neighborhoods that lost the largest number of residents in 2017 was similar to the previous three years. Migration to and from Jerusalem

The highest proportional emigration rate (number of emigrants per 1,000 residents) was recorded in Nachlaot (66 per 1,000), Talbieh (62), City Center (61) and Rehavia (59). The proportional emigration rate in 2017 was also similar to that of the previous three years, and these four neighborhoods are high in the ranking every year. These neighborhoods house many young people and students, and each year there is a lively turnover of departures and arrivals.

Emigration from Jerusalem, By Main Neighborhoods, 2017 (Number and Proportional Rate of Migrants) 1,600 80

1,200 60

800 40

400 20 Number of Migrants

0 0 Proportional Rate of Migrants l i t t t t r y v o a n h a m a ot o e il e e o v e v i ' i a g a r i u la, v' a l C it m r y G n t a e i b c h A l e l is Y o h Z e ea G K i P c h G R a C e h T a r d R e H a S

N a M o

M ea Neighborhood

Number of Migrants Rate of Migrants

20 21 Emigration from Jerusalem, by Main Neighborhoods, 2014-2017*

Neighborhood 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,550 1,520 1,550 1,450 Ramot Alon (1) (1) (1) (1) 1,030 1,050 1,150 1,190 Pisgat Ze'ev (2) (3) (2) (2) 920 1,050 1,040 950 Geula, Mea She'arim (3) (2) (3) (3) 840 850 880 810 Gilo (4) (4) (4) (4) 760 760 700 690 Kiryat HaYovel (5) (5) (6) (5) 750 753 680 620 Katamon Alef-Tet (6) (6) (7) (6) 520 711 720 570 Romema (10) (7) (5) (7)

*The number in parentheses indicates the rank of the neighborhood according to a descending scale (the neighborhood that lost the largest number of residents received the number 1). The neighborhoods are Emigration from Jerusalem arranged according to their ranking in 2017.

Examining emigration by neighborhood and age yields different age distributions depending on the neighborhood. Generally, those leaving ultra-orthodox neighborhoods or neighborhoods with a large ultra-orthodox population are younger compared to non-ultra- orthodox neighborhoods. Those leaving ultra-orthodox neighborhoods are characterized by both a high percentage of children (mainly 0-4 years old) and a high percentage of young people (mostly 20-24 years of age), hence these migrants were mainly young couples with small children. For example, in the neighborhoods of Ramat Shlomo, Geula and Mea She'arim, Romema, Mekor Baruch and Zichron Moshe 17%-29% of the emigrants were 0-4 and 21%-30% were 20-24.

Among those leaving the City Center, Nachlaot and Rehavia, the very high percentage of young people aged 20-34 was noteworthy. In these neighborhoods, 58%-65% of the residents were 20-34 years old, half of them 25-29. On the other hand, the percentage of 0-4 aged children was very low, at 7%-12%.

20 21 The high percentage of young people also stood out among those leaving the Ramat Shlomo, Sanhedria, Tel Arza, Har Nof and Romema neighborhoods. About half of them were aged 20-34. In these neighborhoods, the proportion of those aged 20-24 was considerable.

The neighborhoods with the highest percentage of persons leaving aged 50+ were: Beit Hakerem, Baqa, Abu-Tor and Yemin Moshe (18%), Talpiot, Arnona and Mekor Chaim (17%), Ramat Sharett, Ramat Denya and Holyland (16%). Migration to and from Jerusalem

22 23 Jerusalem's Migration Balance

In 2017, the number of people leaving Jerusalem was greater than those moving to it, and so the city's migration balance was negative. Jerusalem's migration balance stood at minus 6,000 and was significantly lower than that recorded in 2016 (minus 8,000) and in 2015 (minus 7,800). The migration balance in 2017 was the lowest recorded since 2008, when the balance was minus 4,900.

Migration Balance by District

The highest negative migration balances were recorded within the following districts: Jerusalem District minus 1,800 (29%), Judea and Samaria minus 1,700 (28%), Tel Aviv District minus 1,300 (21%) and Central District minus 900 (15%). The migration balances

Jerusalem's Migration Balance, by District, 2017

District Area Jerusalem Judea and Samaria Tel Aviv Central Haifa Southern Northern Surrounding Jerusalem Surrounding Tel Aviv 0

-1,000

-2,000

Migration Balance -3,000

-4,000

22 23 within the Northern, Southern and Haifa districts were noticeably low, ranging between minus 110 and minus 140. Therefore, it emerges that the exodus from Jerusalem is mainly to the benefit of the area surrounding Jerusalem (Jerusalem District and Judea and Samaria) and the migration balance with this area was minus 3,400 (50% of the total). With the Tel Aviv area (Tel Aviv District and Central District), the balance was minus 2,200 (37%).

Migration to and from Jerusalem Migration Balance by Locality

The localities with which Jerusalem had the highest negative migration balance were: Tel Aviv (minus 1,010), Beit Shemesh (minus 780), Beitar Illit (minus 690), Modi'in- Maccabim-Re'ut (minus 390), Kiryat Ye'arim (minus 320), Giv'at Ze'ev (minus 250) and Ramat Gan (minus 230).

An examination of the localities with which Jerusalem had a negative migration balance shows that the city lost population from all sectors – secular, religious and ultra- orthodox.

Jerusalem's Migration Balance, by Main Localities, 2017 Tel Aviv Beit Shemesh Beitar Illit Modi'in Kiryat Ye'arim Giv'at Ze'ev Ramat Gan Tzur Hadassah Modi'in Illit Mevaseret Zion

-200

-400

-600 Migration Balance -800

-1,000

24 25 Migration Balance by Age

Migration to and from Jerusalem, by Age, 2017

+ 90 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 Emigration Immigration 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 Age 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 5% 10% 15% 20% Percentage of Migrants

Jerusalem's Migration Balance Jerusalem's Migration Balance, by Age, 2017

+ 90 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54

Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 15% 10% 5% 0 5% 10% 15% Percentage of Migration Balance

24 25 The main age groups that were lost to Jerusalem as a result of the negative migration balance were (according to age group): 0-4, minus 1,630 (27% of the negative balance); 30-34, minus 950 (16%); 25-29, minus 920 (15%); and 5-9, minus 500 (8%).

Migration Balance by Locality and Age

An examination of the migration balance by locality and age indicates that the population Migration to and from Jerusalem lost by Jerusalem was to the benefit of ultra-orthodox localities or those with large ultra- orthodox populations, such as Beit Shemesh, Beitar Illit and Modi'in Illit, the migrants being comprised mainly of young couples with young children.

In contrast, the residents that Jerusalem lost to Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan were mostly young people of a slightly older distribution.The 20-34 age group comprised 65%-82% of the negative migration balance from Jerusalem (among them was a considerable proportion of 25-29 year olds). Jerusalem's migration balance with Modi'in-Maccabim- Re'ut and Mevaseret Zion is more diverse in terms of age distribution – about a quarter to a third of those comprising the migration balance came from the following three groups: 0-19, 20-34 and 35-49.

Jerusalem's Migration Balance, by Main Localities and Age, 2017

Locality Tel Aviv Beit Shemesh Beitar Illit Modi'in Kiryat Ye'arim Giv'at Ze'ev Ramat Gan Tzur Hadassah Modi'in Illit Mevaseret Zion 0

-200

-400

-600 Migration Balance 0-19 20-34 35-49 50+ -800

-1,000

26 27 Migration Balance by Jerusalem Neighborhood

The neighborhoods in Jerusalem where the highest negative migration balance was recorded (inter-locality migration only) in 2017 were: Ramot Alon (minus 650), Pisgat Ze'ev (minus 560), Geula and Mea She'arim (minus 470), Gilo (minus 420) and Ramat Shlomo (minus 340). The ranking of the principal neighborhoods which recorded the highest negative migration balance in 2017 was similar to that of the three preceding years.

The highest proportional rate of negative migration balance (per 1,000 residents) was recorded in Ramat Shlomo (minus 23 residents per 1,000), East Talpiot (minus 15), Kiryat Menachem (minus 15), Ramot Alon (minus 14) and Gilo (minus 14).

Jerusalem's Migration Balance, by Main Neighborhoods, 2014-2017*

Neighborhood 2014 2015 2016 2017 -870 -780 -880 -650 Ramot Alon (1) (1) (1) (1) -490 -450 -620 -555 Pisgat Ze'ev (2) (4) (2) (2) -440 -600 -620 -470 Geula, Mea She'arim (3) (2) (3) (3) Jerusalem's Migration Balance -290 -330 -510 -420 Gilo (6) (7) (4) (4) 320- -460 -410 -340 Ramat Shlomo -(5) (3) (6) (5) -280 -300 -270 -340 Kiryat Menachem (8) (10) (11) (6) Romema -260 -410 -440 -280 (9) (5) (5) (7)

* The number in parentheses indicates the ranking of the neighborhood according to a descending scale (the neighborhood which recorded the highest negative migration balance received the number 1). The neighborhoods are arranged according to a declining rank of the 2017 migration balance.

26 27 Migration of Ultra-Orthodox Population to and from Jerusalem

In 2017, the number of ultra-orthodox Jews who left Jerusalem was estimated to be Migration to and from Jerusalem approximately 5,200, accounting for 30% of all Jewish (and other6) emigrants.7 This figure disproves the popular view that it is mostly secular people who leave the city.

The number of ultra-orthodox Jews moving to Jerusalem was estimated at 2,700, representing 24% of all Jewish immigrants.

The migration balance of the ultra-orthodox population was therefore negative and was estimated at minus 2,500. The ultra-orthodox population constituted 42% of the total negative migration balance of the Jewish population. Indeed, the migration balance of the ultra-orthodox population (42%) reflected overall demographic makeup of the city’s population in 2017 (43% of the overall Jewish population).

The main locations to which they left and/or from where the ultra-orthodox population came to Jerusalem were: Beit Shemesh, Giv'at Ze'ev, Beitar Illit, Bnei Brak, Modi'in Illit, Kiryat Ye'arim, Safed, Kochav Ya'akov and Elad.

Most of the emigrating ultra-orthodox were young couples with young children – 26% of them were 20-24 years old and 25% were children aged 0-4, another 16% were aged 25-29.

The ultra-orthodox moving to Jerusalem were also young, but somewhat older than the ultra-orthodox who left. The main age groups among ultra-orthodox immigrants: 20-24 (22%), 0-4 (18%) and 25-29 (14%).

6 The other population includes non-Arab Christians and those with no religious classification. All the data in this section relates to the Jewish population and the “other.” 7 The estimate of the migration of ultra-orthodox from the city is based on the Jewish population in neighbor- hoods where most residents are ultra-orthodox (ultra-orthodox homogeneity level 1-5). These neighborhoods were determined by the percentages of voting for the ultra-orthodox parties in the elections to the 19th Knesset held in January 2013. See: Distribution of Population by Level of Ultra-Orthodox Homogeneity – 2013, Central Bureau of Statistics. http://www.cbs.gov.il/www/publications15/religion/religion_area15.pdf.

28 29 Ultra-Orthodox Migration to and from Jerusalem, by Age, 2017

1,500

1,200 Emigration

Immigration 900

600 Number of Migrants 300

0 4 9 - - 75 29 39 44 49 64 24 14 19 34 54 69 74 59 ------5 0 + 35 70 20 10 15 25 30 40 45 55 60 50 65

Age

Ultra-Orthodox Migration to and from Jerusalem, by Age (Percentage), 2017 30%

Emigration Immigration

20% Migration of Ultra-orthodox Population to and from Jerusalem

10% Percentage of Migrants

0% 4 9 - - 75 64 14 29 34 44 49 54 59 69 19 24 39 74 ------0 5 + 25 55 60 10 20 30 35 40 45 50 65 15 70

Age

28 29 The main age groups of ultra-orthodox that the city lost were: 0-4, minus 840 (34%); 20-24, minus 730 (29%); and 25-29, minus 470 (19%). Of the ultra-orthodox population who comprise the negative migration balance in Jerusalem in 2017, 82% were younger than 29. Interestingly, the only age group that had a (low) positive migration balance among the ultra-orthodox population was 75+, with a net gain of 30 individuals.

Ultra-Orthodox Migration Balance, by Age, 2017 Migration to and from Jerusalem Age 29 34 39 44 49 54 64 14 19 24 59 69 74 ------9 4 75 - - 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 10 15 20 0 5 + 200

0

-200

-400 Migration balance -600

-800

-1,000

In comparison, among the non-ultra-orthodox population, the main age groups lost by the city were: 30-34, minus 870 (25%); 0-4, minus 790 (22%); 25-29, minus 450 (13%); and 35-39, minus 440 (13%). Of the non-ultra-orthodox population lost by Jerusalem, 42% were younger than 29. The only age group that had a positive migration balance among the non-ultra-orthodox population was 20-24, with a net gain of 230 individuals.

An examination of the migration movements of the ultra-orthodox population in 2016- 2017 indicates that in 2017 there was a decrease in the number of ultra-orthodox who left the city and an increase in the number of ultra-orthodox who moved to the city. The migration balance in 2017 stood at minus 2,500 and was considerably lower than in 2016 (minus 3,500). However, the share of the ultra-orthodox population in the total migration balance, minus 42%, remained similar to 2016, at minus 44%.

30 31 Jerusalem’s Migration Balance, by Sector and Age, 2017

Age 44 49 69 14 34 19 24 39 54 59 64 74 29 ------4 9 75 - - 15 35 40 45 65 70 10 25 30 20 50 55 60 0 5 + 300

0

-300

-600

-900

Migration balance -1,200 Non Ultra-Orthodox Ultra-Orthodox -1,500

-1,800

Migration of Ultra-Orthodox to and from Jerusalem, 2014-2017 (Estimate)

Year Immigration Emigration Migration Balance

2,500 5,000 -2,500 2014 24% 29% -37% Migration of Ultra-orthodox Population to and from Jerusalem

2,700 5,900 -3,100 2015 26% 33% -40%

2,300 5,800 -3,500 2016 24% 33% -44%

2,700 5,200 -2,500 2017 24% 30% -42%

30 31 Board of Directors Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research

Daniel Halperin, Chairman

Sallai Meridor Avraham Asheri Dr. Ehud Shapira Ora Ahimeir Anat Tzur Dr. Ariel Halperin Gil Ribosh David Brodet Prof. Hanoch Gutfreund Ruth Cheshin Prof. Nava Ben Zvi Ra'anan Dinur

Lior Schillat, Director General Migration to and from Jerusalem, especially the numbers of those leaving the city, are popular topics in public discourse and in the Israeli press. The headlines are frequently negative, and refer to the "abandoning of the city." However, it is important to note that alongside those leaving Jerusalem there is a movement of new residents relocating to the city, and that a negative migration balance is not unique to Jerusalem, but is also characteristic of other major Israeli cities, such as Tel Aviv and Haifa.

The policy of the Local Authority has great ability to influence the scope of migration, as compared to other growth factors, such as natural population growth and Aliya from other countries, which are more difficult to influence. Therefore, the Local Authorities invest extensive resources in the development of residential areas, commerce, services, and infrastructure for the benefit of the city's residents and to attract people from other areas.

The topic of migration to and from Jerusalem has been studied by the Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research since its inception more than 40 years ago. Over the past 20 years, two types of research on the subject have been conducted:

1. The analysis of statistical data pertaining to migration to and from Jerusalem, based on the migration statistics of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. 2. Field studies which examine the characteristics of those moving to and from Jerusalem and their motivations.

The current study examines the scope of the migration to and from Jerusalem as well as the characteristics of the migrants in 2017, based on data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. The migration balance for that year was -6,000, and was significantly low in comparison with previous years, and the lowest figure recorded since 2008. The research findings are intended to assist decision makers and policy makers responsible for developing and strengthening the city.

The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research, which was established in 1978, is a leading and influential think tank that promotes Jerusalem’s social, economic, and urban sustainability. The Institute is where reality shapers turn to in order to promote and define policy issues in Israel in general and in Jerusalem in particular. The Institute’s activities and research helps institutions and bodies shape and implement innovative and effective policy. They bring Jerusalem, with all its various components, to the world - and the world to Jerusalem. Jerusalem is a source of inspiration, a research field, a laboratory, and a space of influence for the Institute. The Institute's agenda includes developing the city for the benefit of its residents, enthusiasts, and believers and strengthening the city's global standing and leveraging it. The Institute’s work in Jerusalem reaches a wider national and global scale, and then is implemented in Jerusalem for the benefits of the city and its residents.

JERUSALEM INSTITUTE FOR POLICY RESEARCH Radak 20 Rehavia, 9218604 Tel. 972-2-5630175 Fax 972-2-5639814 521 EMAIL [email protected] WWW.JERUSALEMINSTITUTE.ORG.IL