Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA

Early Warning and Response Analysis

July, 2015

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information.

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If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected] Released on July, 2015

2 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2015

Contents

Acronyms ...... 3

Early Warning and Response Summary for July, 2015 ...... 4

Weather Conditions ...... 5

Agriculture…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….6

Nutrition ...... 8

Appendix ...... 10

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ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme

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EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

 There will be a continuation of strong weather systems in some cases and widespread rainfall coverage is expected over some areas of the country in the coming July 2015.

Therefore, in relation to this phenomenon normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated over Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, most parts of Oromiya and SNNPR.

 Heavy falls and flash flood is likely at places in areas where above normal rainfall is expected; consequently, appropriate prevention measure should be undertaken by the

concerned bodies ahead of time particularly in low-lying areas and near riverbanks including in areas where there is soils with poor peculation capacity.

 In relation to the expected gradual weakening of weather systems extended dry spell is likely with a chance of occurrence of erratic rainfall in some places. Consequently, proper water harvesting techniques should be designed ahead of time in order to exploit the expected limited moisture efficiently over the areas.

 Livestock conditions are much improved in June, the first month of the kiremt season, from the poorly performed belg season of the current year when shortages of water and pasture occurred in most belg benefiting parts of the country.

 The severely malnourished children (SAM) admitted to therapeutic feeding programs in May increased slightly by 7.5% from 24 214 in April to 26 045 in May with 83.1% reporting rate, for a total of 14 533 TFP sites.

 Partners continued supporting the government in strengthening emergency nutrition responses in hotspot woredas.

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WEATHER CONDITIONS experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. Most parts of eastern Tigray, parts of northwestern Amhara, parts of southern June 2015 weather conditions Oromiya, northern and western Somali and parts northern and a few areas of southern Afar

127 400 88 45 experienced falls ranging from 25 - 50 mm. 21 62 46 40 300 120 40 Parts of South Tigray, parts of central Afar, 85 200 69 29 123 6 103 100 parts southern Oromiya and most parts of 100 59 48 39 186 129 52 0 122 47 15 0 0 50 Somali received falls ranging from 5 -25 mm. 134 8 269 141 144 98 16 97 326 25 15 79 106 51 There was little or no rainfall over southeastern 49 9 1 119 5 72 11 115 74 38 310 117 101 249 96 margin of Oromiya, southern and southeastern 233 160 44 80 21 85 83 80 267 297 127 104150 180 63 98 Somali. 151 75 190 279 29 46 157 222 138 133 207 343 98 145 199 109 86 168 137 112 271 309 208 114 113 129 147110 64 76 142 122 206 144 204 159 96 131 94 50 0 164 103106 125 11

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Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of June 2015

Source: NMA During the month of June 2015, a few pocket areas of western Oromiya exhibited falls greater than 300 mm. Most parts of the eastern margin of Benishangul Gumuz, parts of western Oromiya, a few area of northeastern Gambella, a few areas of western Amhara and northwestern tip of SNNPR received falls Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for ranging from 200 – 300 mm. Most parts of June 2015 Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of western, Source: NMA central and parts of eastern Oromiya, most parts of Gambela, parts of western Tigray, most parts As indicated in map 2, parts of eastern and South of SNNPR and most parts of western parts of Tigray, most parts of Amhara, most parts of Amhara experienced falls ranging from 100 – Oromiya, SNNPR, northern parts of Benishangul 200 mm. Most parts of Tigray, parts of Gumuz, Gambela, northern and western Somali northern, central and southern Amhara, a few including most parts of northern half and southern parts of Afar exhibited normal to above normal areas of southern and most parts of eastern rainfall. The rest of the country exhibited below Oromiya, southern parts of SNNPR, central normal rainfall. Tigray, northern, central and southern parts of Amhara, northern and southern tips of Afar

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lowlands of most parts of the country 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 30 13 7 suppose to get widespread rainfall together with

15 0 25 14 5 a frequent heavy falls at places. Thus, there will 16 15 1 6 20 12 9 4 15 19 12 0 15 be a continuation of strong weather systems in 17 5 3 0 0 11 2 23 18 15 6 5 6 25 5 10 13 some cases and widespread rainfall coverage is 20 5 20 11 4 2 23 7 4 5 12 9 6 25 12 9 expected over some areas of the country in the 19 7 20 20 9 9 5 10 8 8 24 22 14 1917 17 7 13 coming July 2015. 23 13 19 16 3 7 12 15 21 17 26 25 10 18 22 10 15 17 13 5 20 23 17 15 13 14 Generally during the month of July 2015, in 15 17 13 6 12 13 12 12 11 22 relation to the above mentioned phenomenon 18 11 14 14 8 0 15 10 7 4 normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated 4 over Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, 2 most parts of Oromiya and SNNPR. Moreover some areas will have heavy falls and flash flood Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the month is likely at places. Therefore, appropriate June 2015 prevention measure should be undertaken by the Source: NMA concerned bodies ahead of time particularly in low-lying areas and near riverbanks including in Pocket areas of southwestern Amhara, eastern Benishangul Gumuz and parts of western areas where there is soils with poor peculation Oromiya received falls in greater than 20 rainy capacity. Near normal rainfall is expected over days. Parts of western Amhara, parts of central Afar, Dire Dawa, Harari and northern Somali. and western Oromiya, northern parts of SNNPR However in relation to the expected gradual received falls in 15-20 rainy days. Northwestern weakening of weather systems extended dry and central Amhara, western parts of Benishangul spell is likely with a chance of occurrence of Gumuz, most parts of eastern Gambela, most erratic rainfall in some places. Consequently, parts of SNNPR, parts of eastern and central proper water harvesting techniques should be Oromiya received falls in 10 - 15 rainy days. designed ahead of time in order to exploit the Western and parts of central Tigray, most parts of expected limited moisture efficiently over the western Amhara, northern and southern tip of areas. On the other hand partly cloudy condition Afar, western half of Gambela, southern SNNPR, will prevail over lowlands of southern and eastern and parts of southern Oromiya including southeastern parts of the country as per normal northern parts of Somali received falls in 5 - 10 condition. rainy days. Therefore, the observed good distribution of rainfall could have positive impact AGRICULTURE on the early season’s agricultural activities in the Crop condition:- Farmers and agro pastoralists in most aforementioned areas and for long season variety meher benefitting parts of the country have been of crops which were sown earlier. weeding and cultivating long cycle and other earlier Weather outlook and possible impact for planted meher crops, preparing meher plots and planting of the seasonal crops sown in the month, July 1-31, 2015 utilizing agricultural inputs supplied by responsible Normally during the month of July the rain agencies and, where convenient, conducted water producing systems will get better strength and harvesting (as in Tigray region) works using the with the exception of south and southeastern opportunities of the June 2015 meher rains which, by

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and large, were conducive for agricultural activities. Godere and Mengesh weredas of Gambela Owing to the favorable rains obtained in the month region. wilting crops are reported to be recovering from moisture stress in some areas of SNNPR including 13  Early planted stalk cereals are at vegetative in kebeles of Halaba special wereda. mid highlands while the same crops planted late in lowlands are from seedling to vegetative Of the total meher plan of Oromia region, 83.6 % has stages in Hareri region. been prepared and 33.8 % planted in Arsi, West Arsi, East and West Hrarghe, Jima, Illuababora, all Shewa  Meher sorghum and irrigated maize are at and Wellega zones of where 84369 qt improved seeds, vegetative stage in Diredawa Administration. 127,394 qt DAP and 400,608 qt Urea fertilizers have already been distributed to farmers for meher crop  Rain fed maize planted in few places of Gode production. zone is at vegetative stage while the same crop planted using irrigation from Wabeshebele, Similarly, of the total meher plan of Amhara region, Genale and Dawa rivers is at seed setting stage 93% has been prepared and 31.3% planted. On the in Somali region. other hand, only 39.6% of the belg plan has been  Despite delay in meher planting resulted from covered with seeds in belg growing weredas of North delay of the seasonal rain, meher land Shewa, North Wello and South Wello zones of the preparations and planting of small cereals and region where not only planting was much below the early maturing maize verities has been plan but also the crops have been suffering moisture extensively conducted within the month in shortage with impacts of losses of production. Tigray region.

Depending on the agro ecological conditions, small cereals, pulses as well as early maturing maize crops  Maize planted through irrigation water pumped planted in the month and/or before are at different from is being wilting and drying growth stages and mostly in good conditions. due to low water contents of the river making water pumping difficult in Asayta, Afambo, , , Bure Mudaytu and  They are generally from germination to Dubti weredas of . vegetative stages in Oromia and Amhara,

from flowering to seed setting stages in Army worm infestations have occurred on 1,113 ha highlands and from seedlings to vegetative crop and pasture lands in Tarmaber, Ankober, stages in mid and lowland areas of SNNPR. Angolelatera, Qewet and Antsokia weredas of North

Shewa zone of Amhara region፣ and on 6 ha maize land  Stalk cereals and oil crops are mostly at in one kebele of Boricha wereda in Sidama zone and vegetative stage and haricot bean intercropped controlled successfully before it cause any damage. with maize is at flowering stage and in good

conditions In Benishangul Gumuz region. Generally, the meher rains so far obtained being mostly Land preparations and in some places favorable for the seasonal agricultural activities, all plantings of teff and finger millet have been round efforts made by farmers and all level concerned conducted, government bodies to boost production and

productivities are indicative of ensuring to meet at least  Sesame is from flowering stage in Dima the meher 2015 crop production targets of the country, wereda and maize is at vegetative stage in

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provided that the current active efforts of all concerned zone of Oromia region; Halaba special to increase production and productivity is maintained wereda, Mareko wereda of Guraghe zone, and the seasonal rain proceeds normal. lowlands of Demboya, Tembaro, kedida Gamela, Kachabira and Angacha weredas of LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS Kembata Tembaro zone of SNNPR; and Livestock conditions are much improved in Shinile zone of Somali region where there are June, the first month of the kiremt season, from livestock movements with in and out of the the poorly performed belg season of the current region to neighboring weredas of Oromia. year when shortages of water and pasture occurred in most belg benefiting parts of the Risks of water and pasture shortages are country. However, there are areas of the country reported in some places of Eastern and where the shortages still persisted due to the Southern zones of Tigray region where late adverse impacts of the belg season and/or onset and below normal meher rains had lowland areas so far received below normal created adverse effects on availability of kiremt rains. These include Afar region where water and pasture. With this regard, crop livestock migrated to neighboring Oromia, residues are not expected in the 6 belg Amhara and Tigray regions are not yet returned growing weredas in Southern zone of the back due to low improvements in availability of region due to very low belg crop prodaction water and pasture. Regional reports indicate that emanated from poorly performed belg season livestock are even recently migrated from zone 2 of the current year. (except wereda) to boardering weredas of the above specified neighboring regions in NUTRITION search of water and pasture. With an effort to alleviate the situation, water rationing has been underway using a total of 14 water trucking 1: Nutrition situations The emergency vehicles in Elidar, , Kore, Serdo, Irepti, nutrition situation at national and regional Dalole and Hargele weredas where livestock level continue to be monitored and assessed body conditions are deteriorating. For similar by the Emergency Nutrition Coordination reasons, livestock migrated from Diredawa Unit (ENCU) of the DRMFSS office in Administration to neighboring weredas of collecting and analyzing variety of nutrition Oromia region are still there since the situation related information. has not yet much improved in the administration. Nutrition response Availabilyty of pasture and/or water is at stake in Kurfachele wereda of East Hareghe 2. Ad hoc nutrition coordination meetings zone, 9 and10 lowland weredas of Bale and were organized seeking the nutrition partners’ Borena zones, respectively, Liben, Sebaboru commitment to expand their interventions in the uncovered woredas. 76 out of 97 woredas and Gorodola weredas of Guji zone, are now covered/committed, either 78.3% Adamitulu Jidocomblcha and Fentale weredas coverage. 21 woredas are still not covered, of East Shewa zone and many places of Arsi mostly in Somali and Afar regions.

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TFP admissions TSFP services

The severely malnourished children (SAM) From January to June 2015, a total of 346 244 admitted to therapeutic feeding programs in beneficiaries (183 010 from January to March May increased slightly by 7.5% from 24 214 and 164 234 from April to June 2015) in April to 26 045 in May with 83.1% benefited from the TSFP programs, among reporting rate, for a total of 14 533 TFP sites. them 179 451 (51.8%) under 5 children and We could expect more increase in new 166793 (48.1%) Pregnant and lactating admissions if the reporting rate increases. And women (PLW), 60 out of 97 woredas are the TFP admissions have continuously covered. increased from January with 18 308 to 26 045 SAM cases in May 2015. Ad Hoc surveys

Compared to the months of May of 2014, new GOAL and ACF completed two surveys in admissions increased by 24% in 2015 of Gambela (Jikawo woreda) and Hareri which SNNPR increased from 6,232 to 7,408 (Hundene woreda) regions. The nutrition by 18.9% while in Oromia from 8,513 t311 situation was classified as serious in Jikawo by 56.3%. woreda of Gambela region and normal in SNNPR and Oromia are the 2 regions more Hundene woreda of Hareri region, with the concerned by the new admissions increment, result of 11.7% GAM and 2.0% SAM for either 15% increment respectively compared Jikawo6.4%; GAM and 0.3% SAM for to the April figures. SAM cases in SNNPR Hundene. increased by 54% from 717 in April to 1,106 in May and 33% from 1,044 in April to 1,385 Following the HRF and OFDA-GOAL call in May in Oromia region. The increments in for proposals, nutrition partners are urged to the two regions can be attributed to the late expedite nutrition proposals preparation and onset of Belg rains or failure in some parts of submission for the emergency nutrition the country as well as unpromising meher response in the hotspot priority woredas. And rains that contributed to the hunger gap HRF call for proposal has been extended to season. 17 July 2015.

From January to May 2015, the most affected zones in Oromia are: Arsi, Bale, Borana, East and West Hareghe and West Arsi; in SNNPR are Awassa Zuria, Gedeo, Gurage, Hadiya, Kembata Tembaro, Segen Hizboch, Sidama, Silte and halaba Sp woreda; while in Amhara are North and south Gondar, North and south Wello and Wag Himra.

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