25-26 December 2019
Daily Outlook GLOBAL STOCK INDEX
The S&P 500 and the Dow industrials slipped in a shortened, pre-Christmas session on Tuesday, as investors paused after a record-setting rally fueled by improving U.S.-China trade relations that has put the market on course for its best year since 2013. The Nasdaq eked out a gain, helped by a rise in Advanced Micro Devices Inc shares, to register an all- time high close for a ninth straight session. All three major indexes posted record closes on Monday. The benchmark S&P 500 index is set for its biggest annual percentage gain since 2013, with the market’s mood a sharp contrast with Christmas Eve a year ago, which was the tail end of a severe swoon in which the S&P 500 came within a hair of confirming a bear market. Dec. 24, 2018, turned out to be a recent closing low for the S&P 500, with U.S. stocks beginning a rally that would carry through into 2019. The benchmark S&P 500 is up over 28% so far this year, fueled by DJIA optimism over improving U.S.-China trade relations, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and better than feared economic data and corporate profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 36.08 points, or 0.13%, to 28,515.45, the S&P 500 lost 0.63 point, or 0.02%, to 3,223.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 7.24 points, or 0.08%, to 8,952.88. Industrials lagged the most among S&P 500 sectors, while real estate was the top gainer. Volumes are expected to be thin this week as traders settle in for the holidays. The main U.S. stock exchanges closed at 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday and remain shut on Wednesday. In company news, shares of chip company AMD rose 2.4% after RBC raised its price target. Uber Technologies Inc shares rose 0.4% after co-founder Travis Kalanick severed his last ties with the ride- services company. Japanese shares ended nearly unchanged on Tuesday ahead of Christmas holidays, as some investors booked profits to cash in on a recent rally sparked by a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal. The Nikkei index closed up 0.04% at 23,830.58. The Nikkei has advanced 19% so far this year and many investors have been closing out positions this month to book gains on this rally. Trading is expected to be subdued as many financial markets will start closing from Tuesday for Christmas holidays. Japanese shares started higher, taking their lead from a record closing high on Wall Street on Monday, Nikkei after U.S. President Donald Trump calmed nerves by saying Washington is on track to sign a deal with Beijing to de-escalate a bruising trade war. However, gains in Japanese stocks quickly faded as the year- end holiday mood started to set in. Some technology shares continued to gain, including Taiyo Yuden, Yokogawa Electric and Advantest . They rose 2.5%, 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively. Insurers were among the biggest losers, with T&D Holdings falling 1.7%, Dai-ichi Life Holdings down 1.4% and Sompo Holdings losing 1.3%. South Korean shares ended lower on Tuesday, as investors were wary about a swift turnaround in exports and corporate earnings, while steering clear of making big bets ahead of holiday. The Seoul stock market's main KOSPI closed down 13.63 points, or 0.62 per cent, at 2,190.08. Kospi South Korean exports fell again in the first 20 days of December according to official data on Monday, but a recovery in demand from China and stabilising chip prices offered signs that a year-long run of declines may be nearing its end. Hong Kong stocks slipped in the half day Christmas Eve session. The Hang Seng index dropped 0.2 per cent, to 27,864.10, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.1 per cent, to 11,042.49. Hong Kong markets will resume trading on Friday, Dec 27.
China stocks ended higher on Tuesday on hopes that Beijing will roll out more measures to bolster the real economy. The blue-chip CSI300 index closed up 0.7% at 3,992.96, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.7% to 2,982.68. Hang Seng & Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday the government will study taking more measures to lower Shanghai financing costs for smaller companies, including broad-based and “targeted” cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), relending and rediscounting. Chinese government bond futures edged up in early trade on Tuesday following the Premier’s remarks. The largest percentage gainers on the main Shanghai Composite index were Huayi Electric Co Ltd, up 10.09%, followed by Shanghai Fudan Forward S&T Co Ltd , gaining 10.06% and Guirenniao Co Ltd, up by 10.04%. The largest percentage losers on the Shanghai index were ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co Ltd , down 10%, followed by Lushang Health Industry Development Co Ltd, losing 6.4% and Changshu Fengfan Power Equipment Co Ltd, down by 5.87%.
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25-26 December 2019
Closing Prices – 24 December 2019
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE .DJI 28515.45 36.08/0.13% .N225 23830.58 9.47/0.04% /.SPX 3224.10 0.09/0.00% .KS200 2190.08 13.63/0.62% /.IXIC 8952.88 7.24/0.08% .HSI 27864.21 42.20/0.15% JPY= 109.39 0.01/0.09% /.SSEC 2982.68 19.93/0.67% KRW= 61.12 0.50/0.82% /CLc1 (Oil) 1163.710 0.37/0.03%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FORECAS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL PREV. REV. T Mon/23-Dec-19 07:00 KR Exports 20 Days YoY Dec -- -9.6% 07:00 KR Imports 20 Days YoY Dec -- -11.2% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit MoM Nov 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY Nov 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 11:30 JP All Industry Activity Index MoM Oct -4.3% -4.3% 1.5% 1.9% 12:00 JP Coincident Index Oct F 95.3 -- 94.8 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Oct F 91.6 -- 91.8 20:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Nov P 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 20:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Nov P -0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Nov 0.56 -0.31 -0.71 -0.76 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders Nov P -2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 20:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Nov P 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 20:30 CA GDP MoM Oct -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 20:30 CA GDP YoY Oct 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 22:00 US New Home Sales Nov 719k 730k 733k 22:00 US New Home Sales MoM Nov 1.3% -0.4% -0.7% Tue/24-Dec-19 06:50 JP BOJ Minutes of October Policy Meeting All IT Holiday (Christmas Eve) All DE Holiday (Christmas Eve) 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Dec -6 1 -1 Wed/25-Dec-19 06:50 JP PPI Services YoY Nov -- 2.1% All AU Holiday (Christmas Day) All HK Holiday (Christmas Day) All KR Holiday (Christmas Day) All CH Holiday (Christmas Day) All CA Holiday (Christmas Day) All FR Holiday (Christmas Day) All IT Holiday (Christmas Day) All DE Holiday (Christmas Day) All GB Holiday (Christmas Day) All US Holiday (Christmas Day) Thu/26-Dec-19 All AU Holiday (Boxing Day) 12:00 JP Construction Orders YoY Nov -- 6.4% All HK Holiday (The First Weekday after Christmas Day ) All CA Holiday (Boxing Day) All FR Holiday (Boxing Day) All DE Holiday (Boxing Day) All CH Holiday (St Stephen’s Day) All GB Holiday (Boxing Day) 20:30 US Continuing Claims Dec-14 -- -- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-21 -- -- Fri/27-Dec-19 04:00 KR Consumer Confidence Dec -- 100.9 06:30 JP Jobless Rate Nov 2.4% 2.4% 06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Nov 1.57 1.57 06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions 06:50 JP Industrial Production MoM Nov P -1.5% -4.5% 06:50 JP Industrial Production YoY Nov P -- -7.7% 06:50 JP Retail Sales MoM Nov -- -14.4% 06:50 JP Retail Sales YoY Nov -- -7.1% 08:30 CN Industrial Profits YoY Nov -- -9.9% N/A CN BoP Current Account Balance 3Q F -- $54.9b
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25-26 December 2019
27-Dec - 30-Dec N/A DE Retail Sales MoM Nov -- -1.90% 27-Dec - 30-Dec N/A DE Retail Sales NSA YoY Nov -- 0.8% 16:00 EZ ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 16:30 GB UK Finance Loans for Housing Nov -- 41219 18:00 CA CFIB Business Barometer Dec -- 56.1 23:00 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Dec-20 -- -265k 23:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Dec-20 -- -1085k 23:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Dec-20 -- 1509k 23:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Dec-20 -- 2529k Sat/28-Dec-19 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Dec-27 -- -- 28-Dec - 03-Jan N/A GB Nationwide House PX MoM Dec -- 0.5% 28-Dec - 03-Jan N/A GB Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Dec -- 0.8%
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25-26 December 2019
Dow Jones (DJ – Mar) Exp. Date: 20 Mar 2020 28647 RESISTANCE 28614 28559
28471 SUPPORT 28438 28383
BUY 28490 @researchvaf @rekhmen SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 28470
28555 T/P: 28580
CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 24 Dec 28556 28582 28494 88 28504 28504 40 0.14 --
WEEKLY DECEMBER 2019 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 28582 (24/Dec) 28471 (23/Dec) 28582 (24/Dec) 27309 (03/Dec) 28582 (24/Dec) 22563 (04/Jan)
Nikkei (NIK – Mar) Exp. Date: 12 Mar 2020 23873 RESISTANCE 23836 23803
23733 SUPPORT 23696 23663
BUY 23765 @researchvaf @rekhmen SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 23745 23800 T/P: 23835
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE CHANGE% VOLUME
24 Dec 23790 23800 23730 70 23770 23770 Flat 0.00 --
WEEKLY DECEMBER 2019 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 23860 (23/Dec) 23725 (23/Dec) 24105 (16/Dec) 22900 (03/Dec) 24105 (16/Dec) 19205 (04/Jan)
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25-26 December 2019
Kospi 200 (KOS – Mar) Exp. Date: 12 Mar 2020 294.18 RESISTANCE 293.31 291.63
289.08 SUPPORT 288.21 286.53
BUY 289.45 @researchvaf @rekhmen SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 289.10 290.95 T/P: 291.95
CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 24 Dec 292.40 292.45 289.90 2.55 289.95 289.95 2.00 0.68 ---
WEEKLY DECEMBER 2019 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 293.65 (23/Dec) 289.90 (24/Dec) 293.65 (23/Dec) 272.70 (05/Dec) 293.65 (23/Dec) 250.95 (06/Aug)
Hang Seng (HAS – Jan) Exp. Date: 30 Jan 2020 28050 RESISTANCE 27984 27929
27808 SUPPORT 27742 27687
BUY 27860 @researchvaf @rekhmen SELL --- SUGGESTION S/L 27800 27930 T/P: 27980
CHANGE DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE VOLUME % 24 Dec (HAS-Jan) 27990 28011 27888 123 27956 27956 15 0.05 --- 24 Dec (HAS-Dec) 27897 27919 27798 121 27874 27874 23 0.08 ---
WEEKLY DECEMBER 2019 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 28073 (23/Dec) 27798 (24/Dec) 28073 (23/Dec) 25965 (04/Dec) 30336 (15/Apr) 24814 (15/Aug)
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23 December 2019
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