Labour's Record on Health (1997-2010)
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WP02 Labour’s record on health (1997-2010) Working Paper 2 July 2013 Labour’s Record on Health (1997-2010) Polly Vizard and Polina Obolenskaya Preface This is one of a series of papers arising from a programme of research called Social Policy in a Cold Climate, designed to examine the effects of the major economic and political changes in the UK since 2007, particularly their impact on the distribution of wealth, poverty, inequality and spatial difference. The analysis includes policies and spending decisions from the last period of the Labour government (2007-2010), including the beginning of the financial crisis, as well as those made by the Coalition government since May 2010. The programme is funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and the Nuffield Foundation, with London-specific analysis funded by the Trust for London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders. The research is taking place from October 2011 to May 2015. More detail and other papers in the series will be found at: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/case/_new/research/Social_Policy_in_a_Cold_Climate.asp In our first set of papers, we look back at the policies of the Labour government from 1997 to 2010, charting their approach and assessing their impact on the distribution of outcomes and on poverty and inequality particularly. This provides a basis for analysing and understanding the changes that have subsequently taken place under the Coalition. 1 WP02 Labour’s record on health (1997-2010) Acknowledgements We are grateful to numerous individuals and organizations for their support in writing this paper. The Social Policy in a Cold Climate team including Ruth Lupton, John Hills, Tania Burchardt and Kitty Stewart has provided input, comments and guidance. The project’s lead advisor Howard Glennerster has provided specialist expertise and has helped us to shape and develop this paper in numerous ways. The work has also benefited from input and feedback from a project Advisory Group and expert comments from Julian Le Grand (LSE) and John Appelby (Kings Fund) and a discussion with Carl Emmerson (IFS). We are also extremely grateful to Abigail McKnight for editing the series and for substantive comments as the work has progressed. Nic Warner and Joe Johannes have provided critical IT expertise and Cheryl Conner has provided excellent administrative support. Responsibilities for errors in fact, substance or interpretation remains with the authors. We welcome comments on this paper, to [email protected]. 2 WP02 Labour’s record on health (1997-2010) Contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 7 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Goals, Policy Aims and Policies ................................................................................................... 19 Labour’s second term (2001-2005) .................................................................................................. 25 Labour’s third term (2005-2010)....................................................................................................... 28 Health policy in the devolved administrations .................................................................................. 30 3. Resources ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Real expenditure on healthcare ....................................................................................................... 33 Real total (public and private) expenditure on healthcare ................................................................ 36 International comparisons ................................................................................................................ 42 The distribution and allocation of resources across the countries and regions of the UK ................ 45 Resource allocations to local populations determined by their medical needs ................................ 46 5. Inputs and Outputs ....................................................................................................................... 52 How big was the supply side expansion? ........................................................................................ 53 Indirect estimates of the growth in healthcare supply ...................................................................... 53 Official ONS estimates of healthcare inputs, outputs and productivity ............................................. 54 Input growth ..................................................................................................................................... 55 Output growth .................................................................................................................................. 56 The debate about healthcare productivity ........................................................................................ 58 Limitations and caveats ................................................................................................................... 60 Are comparisons between public sector and private sector productivity growth valid and meaningful? ..................................................................................................................................... 61 Supply, demand and need ............................................................................................................... 63 6. Healthcare Outcomes ...................................................................................................................... 66 Access to healthcare ........................................................................................................................ 66 Patient experience and satisfaction ................................................................................................. 75 Variations in healthcare quality and sub-standard care ................................................................... 80 7. Overall Health Outcomes ................................................................................................................. 83 Life expectancy and infant mortality ................................................................................................. 85 Infant mortality ................................................................................................................................. 86 Circulatory disease and cancer mortality ......................................................................................... 88 Mental health and suicide ................................................................................................................ 90 7. Inequalities in Health Outcomes ................................................................................................... 94 Inequalities by area deprivation and social class ............................................................................. 95 Life expectancy ................................................................................................................................ 95 Infant mortality ............................................................................................................................... 102 Cancer and circulatory disease mortality ....................................................................................... 102 3 WP02 Labour’s record on health (1997-2010) Health inequalities by ethnicity and country of birth ....................................................................... 107 Marmot and beyond ....................................................................................................................... 107 8. Lifestyle, Behavioural and Risk Factors ..................................................................................... 111 Smoking and alcohol ..................................................................................................................... 111 Obesity, diet and exercise ............................................................................................................ 112 Teenage pregnancy and risk factors amongst young people ........................................................ 115 Cross-cutting analysis by social class ........................................................................................... 116 9. The UK’s International Position .................................................................................................. 118 Healthcare outcomes ..................................................................................................................... 118 Health outcomes and risk factors .................................................................................................. 124 10. Conclusions: Overall Evaluation and Looking Forward .......................................................... 133 References ........................................................................................................................................ 138 List of tables Table 1: Public sector expenditure on health, United Kingdom, 1991/2-2009/10 (a) .......................... 34 Table 2: Average real annual growth rate of public sector expenditure on health by political administration, the United Kingdom, 1959/51 – 2009/10