UK £2 Issue 244, Year 5 February 16, 2020 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Palestinian ’s MPs Iran’s issue after face public slanted US peace plan distrust elections

Pages 3,14 Page 13 Pages 2,17 strives to break out of isolation to reach ‘safer shores’ Khartoum has set as a priority the removal of Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Mohamed Aboelfadl To further shed its pariah status, Khartoum announced February 12 that it would hand al-Bashir to Cairo the International Criminal Court. Al-Bashir is accused of genocide udan’s transitional authori- for his role in the war in Darfur ties, spearheaded by its de- in which approximately 300,000 Undaunted. Iraqi women participate in anti-government protests in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, cisive military wing, are not people were killed. February 13. (AFP) S hesitating to take steps that The announcement came after could help the country reintegrate negotiations in Juba between the with the international community, government and the Revolution- meet its domestic economic chal- ary Front, which represents sev- Undeterred by cleric’s intimidation, lenges and complete Sudan’s demo- eral armed movements. cratic transition. The decisive posture of the mili- Past the initial hesitation after the tary members of the Sovereignty Iraqi women press on with protests ouster of Islamist-backed President Council seems, however, to be ruf- Omar al-Bashir, Khartoum has set fling the feathers of civilian mem- The Arab Weekly staff strations. He denounced protests as women were among protesters killed as a priority the removal of Sudan bers of the Abdalla Hamdok gov- bringing “nudity, promiscuity, drunk- in recent weeks. from the US list of state sponsors of ernment. While the military sees a enness, immorality, debauchery… Iraqi Women’s League spokeswom- terrorism. need for quick and decisive action, London and non-believers.” an Ahlam Kadoom said “the uprising It has had to reckon with a com- civilian leaders are said to favour Demonstrators were undeterred. continues to gather strength and sup- plex set of sanctions that stemmed dialogue, transparency and demo- gainst the wishes of Iraqi Men and women were seen holding port,” despite the “brutal repression from the designation, which, by cratic processes. Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, hands and camping out together in and threats to life.” Demonstrators virtue of its tangled ramifications, Experts said that, wary of the Iraqi women showed a firm Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. On Febru- said they suspect some risks are from has had the impact, for Sudan, of army’s unilateral initiatives (even A commitment to the protest ary 13, men formed a protective cor- pro-Iran militias and security services. some “kind of a diplomatic nuclear when it has overcome its fears of movement that has shaken the coun- don around women protesters as they Female protesters said they are bomb,” as put by Daniel Benjamin, a military takeover), the govern- try’s political and religious establish- marched. aware they are breaking down social a former US State Department coun- ment sought the partnership of ment. “Revolution is my name, male si- barriers and challenging Iran’s societal terterrorism coordinator. the United Nations in implement- Hundreds of Iraqi women took to lence is the real shame!” they chant- and political model. Inclusion on the US blacklist ing the constitutional document the streets of Baghdad and Basra Feb- ed. Some clamoured: “Freedom, rev- “They want us to be a second Iran deprived Sudan of accessing in- to which protesters and the mili- ruary 13, rejecting the code of conduct olution, feminism!” but Iraqi women weren’t born to let ternational economic assistance, tary had agreed, last August. in demonstrations that al-Sadr tried The rallies slammed Iraqi authori- men dictate to them what to do,” pro- impeded foreign investment in the The steps taken by Khartoum to impose. ties for being corrupt, incompetent tester Raya Assi told Agence France- country and delayed the process of are leaving a positive impression Al-Sadr, who has a wide following and serving the interests of neigh- Presse. “They have to accept us the modernisation and reform. internationally. “The fledgeling in but whose stance on the pro- bouring Iran. way we are.” post-al-Bashir Sudan government test movement has shifted from sup- As they took to the streets, women Daniel Benjamin is demonstrating a serious com- port to hostility, said it was immoral demonstrators said they knew de- (With news agencies) mitment to human rights princi- for men and women to mix in demon- fiance can come with a cost. Many P2, 8 ples in its first months in office,” said John Prendergast, co-founder of the Sentry watchdog group. US blacklisting has had the Sudan’s new rulers are hoping impact of some “kind of a After parliament vote, ’s new the trust they are building at home diplomatic nuclear bomb” will allow them a longer grace pe- on Sudan. riod to start implementing reform. government faces financial credibility test Sudanese political analyst Mu- Seeking Israeli help with Wash- hammad al-Asbat said the Suda- Samar Kadi long-standing ruling class accused ever scarce foreign currency reserves ington towards removing Khartoum nese government was moving the of corruption and graft. it has to repay debts, while the people from the list, Lieutenant-General country to “safer shores.” Diab urged the international com- are struggling to secure basic means Abdel Fattah Burhan, president of He added the Sudanese revolu- munity and local opponents to give of livelihood,” he added. Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, met tion “achieved the goals of free- his -backed government a While Lebanon could ask the World with Israeli Prime Minister Biny- dom and justice to a great extent he government of Lebanese chance to rescue Lebanon’s economy Bank and the International Monetary amin Netanyahu on February 3, in and now it must achieve compre- Prime Minister Hassan Diab, from collapse. He vowed to fight cor- Fund (IMF) for technical help to draw Entebbe, Uganda. hensive peace and solving the which narrowly won a vote ruption, while ushering in judicial, up an emergency plan, Hamdan ad- Despite criticism that followed country’s economic problems.” T of confidence during a con- financial and administrative reforms, vised against direct involvement of his move, most Sudanese politi- Observers said opening to major troversial parliament session, will but offered few specifics in his 16- the international monetary groups. cal parties seemed to understand world powers goes beyond ending soon face its first painful test with page policy statement. “We need a timed implementable Burhan’s motivations. its US blacklisting. On February public debt maturities including a Economic expert Kamal Hamdan action plan. It should include revi- Habib Sarnoub al-Daw, member 13, the German parliament lifted $1.2 billion Eurobond due in March, advised defaulting on payments and sions of the taxation system, stream- of the political council of the Umma sanctions against Sudan and re- part of $2.5 billion owed this year. called for rescheduling the debts, lining public spending, recovering Party, said he was optimistic that established bilateral cooperation The new cabinet secured 63 which he said would have less grave embezzled public funds and purging Sudan would “succeed to a great ex- between Berlin and Khartoum, votes out of the 84 lawmakers in repercussions locally than paying the judiciary from corruption and en- tent in removing this international one day before a meeting between the 128-member chamber who at- them. suring its full independence,” Ham- siege” and that “the coming period Hamdok and German Chancellor tended the session February 11. The “Such a scenario has been applied dan said. will witness more progress at the Angela Merkel in Berlin. meeting convened under tight se- in many countries that had similar International donors pledged level of completing the process of For the next stage, the Sudanese curity while anti-government pro- crises in the past decade,” Hamdan some $11 billion in grants and loans transitional justice, which will fa- government hopes to be able to testers threw stones and clashed said. “Priority should be given to se- for Lebanon in 2018, calling for ma- cilitate the government’s mission to hold an expanded international with security forces outside forti- curing depositors’ savings and the jor reforms to unleash the money. lead the country to new elections.” donor conference, which could fied barriers surrounding the parlia- people’s means of living, medication In recent weeks, friendly countries In another move aimed at end- help Khartoum obtain the aid ment building. and education of their children.” said they will not bail Lebanon out ing the blacklisting of Sudan, the packages and urgent loans it needs Lebanon has one of the highest “Holders of Eurobonds who have without major policy and regulatory Sudanese Ministry of Justice said and ensure the success of its tran- debt ratios in the world, standing amassed fortunes from extremely changes. Khartoum agreed to pay $70 million sition to a Western-backed democ- at more than 150% of GDP. Lack of high-interest rates over years should compensation to the families of the racy. economic growth and high unem- acknowledge that the other party is Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly 17 US sailors killed and 15 wounded ployment rates sparked nationwide in an extremely difficult situation Travel and Society section editor. in the 2000 attack by al-Qaeda on Mohamed Aboelfadl is an protests since October against the and that it cannot dispose of what- the US Navy destroyer USS Cole. Egyptian writer. P6, 12 2 February 16, 2020 Top news ‘Moderate’ candidates excluded in run-up to Iran’s legislative elections

Thomas Seibert of the IRGC,” Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Centre, said in a message in response Istanbul to questions. “I think this kind of horizon is also ardliners are expected to understood by the Iranians who, in win big in Iran’s parliamen- protests in the wake of the shoot- tary elections February 21, ing down of the passenger jet, were H ending a string of election shouting slogans against the IRGC victories by “pragmatists” in recent and their willingness to sustain a years and setting the stage for the conflict with the US to divert atten- 2021 presidential poll, analysts said. tion from popular discontent as well Tensions between Iran and the as an eventual de facto rule by them United States over Tehran’s nuclear that might emerge down the road.” programme form the backdrop of the The current parliament, elected in election for the 290-member cham- 2016, has more than 100 reformists ber. More than 50 million voters are and “moderates,” while the rest of the asked to go to the polls amid eco- chamber is split between independ- nomic pressure from US sanctions ents and hardliners. Pragmatists won and a credibility crisis for the regime the last two presidential elections, in following the violent suppression of 2013 and 2017, but President Hassan street protests in November and the Rohani is barred from running again downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet in 2021 after two terms. by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards In the run-up to the parliamentary Corps (IRGC) in January. elections, the powerful Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog that vets prospective candidates, A formality. Iranians walk past an electoral poster of a candidate in the upcoming parliamentary The February 21 vote barred more than 7,000 people out of elections on a street in Tehran, February 12. (AFP) could provide clues for over 14,000 who had applied to enter next year’s presidential the race. The majority of those re- tions and seeks a pliant parliament now,” Vaez said. hardliners to monopolise power,” he race and beyond. jected were reformist and moderate that would allow for internal con- He added that the February 21 vote added, “but, yet again, the context candidates but there were also hard- solidation in the face of external could provide clues for next year’s is that also the reformists have lost The election is a political test for liners among those barred, as well as threats,” Vaez said. presidential race and beyond. much credibility in view of large sec- competing political camps in Iran 90 current lawmakers. Moderates and reformists have “The takeover of the parliament by tions of the population over the past as they stake out positions for the Rohani, whose pragmatist camp championed improved ties with the the hardliners is likely to harbinger a few years” because they failed to de- looming succession of 80-year-old could be weakened in the election, West and expanded social freedoms similar development in 2021 presi- liver on their promise of economic Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. criticised the council’s approach, but they suffered major setbacks dential elections. With the supreme and political improvement after the “These elections are significant saying it had hurt “competition and since US President Donald Trump’s leader’s succession looming on the signing of the 2015 nuclear agree- because they are paving the ground participation.” election in 2016. Trump pulled the horizon, the stakes for the control of ment. for a conservative takeover of Iran’s “The greatest danger for democ- United States out of Tehran’s 2015 these power centres are quite high.” As both hardliners and pragma- elected institutions for the first time racy and national sovereignty is the nuclear deal with world powers, set- Angry protests followed attempts tists struggle to create enthusiasm, since 2012,” Ali Vaez, director of the day when elections become a for- ting the agreement — championed by by the IRGC and hardliners to deny voter turnout will be a key factor. Iran Project at the International Crisis mality,” the government’s website Rohani — hurtling towards collapse the IRGC’s responsibility for the A high participation rate is likely to Group, said by e-mail. quoted Rohani as saying in a meeting and re-imposed sanctions that sent downing of the Ukrainian jet in Jan- be seen by the regime as a vote of The hard-line IRGC, which has with provincial governors in January. Iran’s economy into free fall. uary but Fathollah-Nejad said the confidence in the Islamic Republic gained considerable economic and Vaez said that by weeding out re- “The hardliners in Iran have lost pragmatists also had a problem. despite mounting economic and po- political influence, could see its formist candidates, the regime dem- every election since 2012 but Trump “There is still a lot of public scep- litical problems. Turnout in the 2016 power strengthened as a result of the onstrated its determination to mini- has been a political boon for them by ticism vis-a-vis all wings of the re- parliamentary election was nearly election. mise internal debates. completely discrediting their prag- gime,” he said. 60%. “The tendency is towards a more “The system’s tight grip in vetting matic rivals who invested their entire Pragmatists could “try to portray hard-line polity in the Islamic Re- the candidates shows that it doesn’t political capital in the 2015 nuclear themselves as some kind of an op- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly public with a more prominent role want to take any risks in these elec- deal, which is hanging by a thread position to this kind of effort by the correspondent. Iraqi protesters struggle to keep momentum, reject Allawi, who has yet to form cabinet

The Arab Weekly staff tralised with each city organising tial victories: Prime Minister Adel marches and chants but tent camps Abdul-Mahdi resigned and parlia- have sprung up across public squares ment passed new voting legislation. London to pressure authorities. The protests However, the measure fails to meet have seen women participate in and many of the protesters’ demands, lthough they see their ranks even lead rallies, which is extremely including smaller voting districts, dwindling, street protest- rare in conservative areas. and it has yet to be signed into law by ers in Baghdad say they are No single leader has emerged, a Iraqi President . A committed to their move- fact authorities used to discredit the After two months of political stale- ment even after 550 of them have movement but which activists say is mate, parties named a replacement been killed. a way to protect it against manipula- for Abdul-Mahdi — Mohammed Al- Since October 1, hundreds of tion. lawi, a two-time communications Street impasse. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi thousands of Iraqis have protested The demonstrations have not minister, February 1. However, pro- delivers a televised speech in Baghdad. (Reuters) against a ruling system they see as reached the Sunni-majority west, testers rejected Allawi, saying he was corrupt, inefficient and beholden to where most fear a protest would be selected by the very parties they had Iran. Crowds gathered in Baghdad’s cast as a revival of Saddam Hussein’s spent four months demonstrating of confidence from parliament. That Top Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi usual protest spot of Tahrir Square Sunni-dominated regime or the Is- against. government would be expected to al-Muhandis was also killed in the after calls on social media to rally lamic State’s extremist hold. Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, seen rule only until early parliamentary strike and Tehran responded with against corruption, lack of services playing both pro and anti-Iran fac- elections are held under a new elec- ballistic missiles fired at an Iraqi base and unemployment. tions, immediately endorsed Allawi’s toral law, a major demand of demon- hosting US troops. Over the past four months, activ- The cabinet formation is rife nomination despite the protesters’ strators. To mark 40 days since their ists have faced a growing campaign with horse-trading, a hostile stance. As protesters op- Allawi, who was nominated as a deaths, top officials from the pro- of arrests, kidnappings and assassi- process partially disrupted posed the prime minister-designate, consensus candidate among Iraq’s Iran Al-Hashed al-Shaabi militia had nations that they say is aimed at snuff- by the US killing January 3 of al-Sadr’s die-hard followers — iden- divided political parties, has prom- a memorial service in Baghdad on ing out their movement. Iran’s al-Quds Force leader tifiable by the blue caps they wear ised an independent cabinet of tech- February 11. The rallies spontaneously mush- Major-General Qassem — have waged deadly attacks against nocrats. Al-Hashed sources said the net- roomed into the biggest grass-roots Soleimani. anti-Allawi camps. Al-Sadr controls the largest par- work’s military elite have been hid- uprising Iraq has seen in decades, On February 11, al-Sadr suddenly liamentary bloc and top ministerial ing in Iran since the strike out of fear with crowds hitting the streets of Nor have they gripped the Kurdish announced he was dissolving the positions in the current government of being targeted. Baghdad and Shia-majority southern north, where a separate ruling sys- “Blue Caps,” the organised unit of but one of his senior aides said the Struggling for relevance, discour- Iraq almost daily, except for a 3-week tem governs daily affairs. his supporters accused of attacks in new prime minister must not include aged by the authorities’ intransi- pause in October to allow for an an- As the response to demonstrations Baghdad and the south that left eight members of the political elite in his gence and facing the hostility of al- nual Shia religious pilgrimage. grew increasingly violent, suspicion protesters dead. new cabinet or Allawi would be top- Sadr’s followers, the protesters are The cause has united a vast range focused on pro-Iran militias. Protest- “I announce the dissolution of the pled “in just three days.” struggling to keep the momentum. of Iraqis: university students skip- ers’ demands escalated from an end ‘Blue Caps’ and I do not accept the The cabinet formation is rife with “I’m staying in Tahrir. Iraq is more ping class, clerics in robes thumbing to corruption and unemployment (Sadrist) movement’s presence in horse-trading, a process partially important than my studies,” said prayer beads, old-school leftists and to electoral reform, an independent and of itself at the protests,” al-Sadr disrupted by the US killing January Mustafa, a university student who whole families waving Iraqi flags at prime minister and a total govern- posted on Twitter. 3 of Iran’s al-Quds Force leader Ma- has vowed to carry on. their first protests. ment overhaul. Allawi has until March 2 to form jor-General Qassem Soleimani, who The rallies are relatively decen- In December, they scored two par- his cabinet, which would need a vote played an active role in Iraqi politics. (With Agence France-Presse) February 16, 2020 3 Top news

Palestinian leader goes to the UN but EU warns of violence if has to live without a vote on resolution Israel annexes Valley The Arab Weekly staff call for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borderlines. He described the US plan as an attempt to impose Reuters London US and Israeli conditions for a settle- ment. “If you impose peace it will not Strasbourg alestinian President Mahmoud last, it cannot last,” Abbas said. Abbas urged the UN Security The Palestinians won support from he European Union’s top Council to reject US President the Arab League, the Organisation of diplomat, Josep Borrell, P Donald Trump’s Middle East Islamic Cooperation and the African urged Israel not to annex peace proposal but, contrary to plans, Union. T the Jordan Valley, a large dropped calls for a resolution backing The four EU members of the Se- area of the occupied West Bank, Palestinian demands. curity Council — France, Germany, warning of Palestinian protests if it The draft resolution, which faced a Belgium and Estonia — along with went ahead. near-certain US veto, did not go for- Poland, which left the council at Israel captured the West Bank in a ward because it did not provide the the end of last year, said any Middle 1967 war. The Palestinian Authority Palestinians with enough support to East solution needed to be based on wants to make the area part of a fu- isolate the United States, diplomats lines before 1967, when Israel seized ture state but Israeli Prime Minister at the United Nations said. the West Bank in the Six-Day War. Binyamin Netanyahu announced One diplomat told Agence France- Trump’s plan “departs from these his intention to annex the valley if Presse (AFP) the draft had 11 or 12 internationally agreed parameters,” he is re-elected. votes in favour on the 15-member they said. “This may happen… You can be council. A second diplomat said it The European Union did not issue sure it’s not going to be peaceful,” would have required too many com- a statement among all members be- Split vision. Palestinian President (Front) and former Borrell told the European Parlia- promises to achieve the 14-1 vote the cause of resistance from a handful of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert after a news conference in New ment on February 11. Palestinians may have sought. countries, including Hungary, led by York, February 11. (AFP) About 65,000 Palestinians and right-wing populist Viktor Orban. 11,000 Israeli settlers live in the In New York, Abbas appeared be- Trump I met was not like that,” Abbas “We may have to wait for the post- Jordan Valley and northern Dead Abbas was critical of side Netanyahu’s predecessor Ehud said. Abu Mazen era,” said Lapid, tipped Sea area, said Israeli human rights Trump but seemed to be Olmert to assail the US peace plan. Although careful not to offend the as a possible foreign minister if Gantz group B’Tselem. The main Pales- looking for excuses for The joint appearance weakened the US administration by pressing for im- forms the next government. tinian city there is Jericho, with the US president. arguments of hardliners in the Mid- mediate annexation of settlements, On the Palestinian side, the “post- around 28 villages and smaller dle East who sought to use the criti- Netanyahu said preparations for im- Abu Mazen era” will have to reckon Bedouin communities. The draft resolution circulated by cism of the peace plan to buttress re- plementation of parts of the US plan with shifting public opinion and with Borrell, who recently travelled and Indonesia would have jectionist stances. green-lighting annexation required the ability of any new Palestinian to Washington, reiterated his rejec- criticised Trump’s plan, including Is- Olmert said any negotiations need- more work. leader to fashion a convincing vision tion of parts of US President Donald rael’s retention of Jewish settlements ed to involve the Palestinian leader. Experts said the next stage in any that could serve as a basis for negotia- Trump’s Middle East peace plan, in the West Bank. “It will take some time but these talks about the Palestinian-Israeli con- tions. which would give Israel most of Abbas said the US peace plan did negotiations will take place and the flict will have to wait until after Israeli A poll in the Palestinian territories what it has sought during decades not offer a viable Palestinian state. partner of Israel to these negotiations elections and probably also after Ab- indicated support for a two-state solu- of conflict, including nearly all Pal- “This is the state that they will give will be Mahmoud Abbas, the presi- bas is replaced as Palestinian leader. tion with Israel has dropped to its low- estinian land on which it has built us,” he said. “It’s like Swiss cheese, dent of the Palestinian Authority,” The plan “is not something that was est level in nearly three decades, with settlements. really. Who among you will accept a Olmert said. channelled towards Abu Mazen (Ab- 39% of respondents saying they were “The proposals tabled two weeks similar state and similar conditions?” Olmert is close to Benny Gantz who bas’s nom de guerre) but towards his in favour and 59% stating opposition. ago clearly challenge the interna- Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin went neck and neck with Netanyahu successor who we don’t know yet who Support for a one-state solution, tionally agreed parameters. It is Netanyahu rejected the criticism say- in two inconclusive elections last he is,” Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe long rejected by both Israeli and Pal- difficult to see how this initiative ing: “This is not Swiss cheese. This is year. A third vote is scheduled for Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and estinian leaders, jumped from 28% in can bring both parties back to the the best plan that exists for the Mid- March 2. Olmert, however, said he African Studies at Tel Aviv University, December to 37%, the poll said. Poll table,” Borrell said of Israel and the dle East and for the state of Israel and was not speaking for Gantz. told AFP. results said 64% of Palestinians favour Palestinians. for the Palestinians, too.” Abbas was critical of Trump but Yair Lapid, a partner of Gantz in the a return to armed struggle in response “I made this point to my (US) Abbas urged Trump to disavow the seemed to be looking for excuses for Blue and White alliance, told AFP he to the plan. interlocutors: We need to ask our- plan and return to negotiations that the US president. “I do not know who agreed the plan may only win Pales- selves whether this plan provides a consider existing UN resolutions that gave him this advice. The President tinian acceptance once Abbas is gone. (With news agencies) basis for progress or not.” Tunisia’s new cabinet formation mired in ‘struggle of wills’

Lamine Ghanmi ership for the 5-year term pretending it was voted down, 134-72. those two parties (Qalb Tounes and Fakhfakh is tempted to go ahead to be shielded by one form of legiti- The vote against the Jemli cabinet Destourian),” he said. with cabinet formation or a confi- macy or the other.” signalled a sudden shift of political Fakhfakh’s push to form a cabinet dence vote for his proposed cabinet Tunis Ghannouchi’s deputies warned fortunes in favour of Fakhfakh and without Qalb Tounes and the Free without Ennahda’s backing. Qalb that Fakhfakh could face difficulties Saied, who took centre stage in the Destourian Party was based on the Tounes announced on February 15 unisian Prime Minister-des- if he ignores Ennahda’s demands for government formation process. But assessment that the parties toeing that it would not vote for Fakhfakh’s ignate has a larger share of the cabinet. The Is- they faced the risk of snap elections “the path of the revolution” could to- cabinet. Ennahda’s Choura Council shuttled for weeks between lamist party wanted to include Qalb if Ennahda and other parties with- gether provide the support of at least seemed again headed in the same T the presidential palace in Tounes to lessen the role of other par- held their endorsement of a cabinet 140 MPs, 31 votes more than a parlia- direction, aiming to clinch a more fa- Carthage and the parliament building ties in the government. proposed by Fakhfakh. mentary majority. vourable arrangement with Fakhfakh in Bardo amid a protracted cabinet Fakhfakh had left out Qalb Tounes, The deadline for a parliamentary Ennahda was counted among those without necessarily pushing for early formation process reflecting a wider the second-largest party in parlia- vote on the new cabinet is February parties because it had voted for Saied elections. tug of war for leadership. ment after Ennahda, and the Free 20. By then, Ennahda is likely to con- and its leaders had previously ruled Together with Qalb Tounes and Fakhfakh negotiated with parlia- Destourian Party, led by anti-Islamist tinue exerting pressure to obtain a out any alliance with Qalb Tounes. other allies, Ennahdha could amass ment Speaker Rached Ghannouchi, lawyer Abir Moussi, of his planned maximum of concessions from Fakh- Finding himself increasingly isolat- 114 votes; and Fakhfakh would be who is also president of the Islamist government, hoping to gain support fakh. ed in the face of Saied-backed Fakh- left with 103 votes of which only 60 Ennahda Movement, and Tunisian from “pro-revolutionary” forma- Having received virtually no votes fakh initiative, Ghannouchi reversed are confirmed — not enough to win a President in at least five tions, including Ennahda, to win in the legislative and presidential tack, citing “national interest” and vote of confidence. meetings in two days. He was initially parliamentary acceptance for the elections, Fakhfakh latched onto the the imperative of “political inclusive- expected to unveil the proposed cab- cabinet. electoral legitimacy of Saied, who ness” as he pressed for the inclusion inet February 14 before postponing But most political groups in par- won the presidential race with more of Qalb Tounes in the government. Tunisian President Kais the announcement. liament ended up rejecting a gov- than 70% of the vote. “The cabinet lineup presented by Saied and parliament Fakhfakh, who had positioned ernment proposed by the previous “All parties voted Fakhfakh cannot win the confidence Speaker Rached Ghannouchi himself as “the president’s man,” Prime Minister-designate Habib for Kais Saied be- of Ennahda,” said Abdelkrim Harou- see themselves endowed was increasingly on a collision course Jemli, who was nominated by En- cause he embod- ni, the head of Ennahda’s Choura with different forms of with Ghannouchi, who seemed in- nahda, dealing a severe blow to ies values and Council February 13. legitimacy to lead the tent on thwarting Saied’s design to the party and showing its grow- principles of the With 54 deputies in parliament, En- country. play a greater political role. ing isolation. people, except nahda saw itself in a better position to Analysts said Ghannouchi, speaker Before the vote, Ennahda determine the outcome of the nego- Ennahda is indicating it does not of a fractured parliament, is jockeying leaders had boasted about tiations than the three smaller parties fear new elections. With its support, for wider control of the government’s their ability to get trying to determine the course of the a parliamentary committee read- policies beyond the cabinet forma- parliament cabinet formation, since these parties ied a draft proposal to raise the vote tion process. Ennahda has shifted al- to endorse had the support of only 51 MPs. threshold for MPs to 5% in future liances and tactics several times. “In Jemli’s Ennahda, sensing Fakhfakh’s pre- elections. The move, seen as poten- politics, it is only natural to change 42-member carious position, wanted a larger tially expanding Ennahda’s electoral course,” Ghannouchi said. cabinet; but share of the cabinet. representation at the expense of Islamists do not want to yield to “Ennahda proposed its brightest smaller rivals, is sparking concern political formations that have fewer cadres for positions in the proposed over Islamists ultimate ambitions seats in parliament nor do they want cabinet but Fakhfakh dismissed them over the Tunisian political scene. to relinquish political leadership of without justification,” said Harouni. Zouheir Maghzaoui, leader of the the country to the president. “We call on Fakhfakh to include Echaab Movement, on February 15 “At the essence of the problem is a Qalb Tounes and Al-Karama (Coali- accused Ennhada of “blackmailing” struggle of wills, especially the wills tion) in the government. This is not Fakhfakh and of behaving as if politi- of the president and the speaker of a tactical ploy or to an attempt to put cal power is just a “spoils system.” parliament,” analyst Zyed Krichen pressure,” he added. Who blinks first? Tunisia’s Prime Minister-designate Elyes Fakhfakh, wrote in Le Maghreb magazine. The brinkmanship game could Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly addresses the media during a news conference in Tunis. (AFP) “Each wants to impose his sole lead- continue until the last moment if correspondent in Tunis. 4 February 16, 2020 Top news

Turkey under pressure as Erdogan’s ‘declaration of war’ in Idlib raises tensions with Russia

Thomas Seibert sary, by air or ground,” he said. Air- craft striking settlements in Idlib would “no longer move freely.” fter issuing what amount- Reports and Syrian activists said ed to a “declaration of a Syrian military helicopter had war” against Syrian forces, been shot down Febraury 14 west A Turkey finds itself under of Aleppo, the second such incident mounting pressure as tensions with within days. The downing fuelled Russia escalate and the threat of speculation that rebels were receiv- further clashes with ’s military ing modern anti-aircraft weapons looms. from Turkey. The crisis around the Syrian prov- Even though it came just hours ince of Idlib shook the foundations after Erdogan and Russian Presi- of the entente between Ankara, dent Vladimir Putin sought to iron which supports Syrian anti-govern- out their differences in a telephone ment rebels, and Moscow, which call, the speech by Erdogan includ- backs Syria’s President Bashar As- ed sharp accusations against Mos- sad, as the Kremlin, the Russian cow. Foreign Ministry and the Russian The United Nations said about Defence Ministry all accused Tur- 800,000 people are on the move, key of bad faith. with many seeking shelter along Ankara’s threats failed to stem the closed Turkish border in north- the Syrian advance in the region. western Idlib. The Syrian Observatory for Human “I want particularly to underline Rights, a war monitor, reported that that the [Syrian] regime and Russia, Syrian troops had moved close to together with regime-aligned forc- the town of Atarib, west of Aleppo es, take aim at the civilian popula- 15km from the Turkish border. Syr- tion coming from the east,” Erdogan ia’s state news agency SANA said said. “The goal is to clear the region Syrian troops continued their ad- [of civilians] and push the people of vance near the strategically impor- the region towards our borders.” tant M5 highway. The Turkish leader highlighted a controversial principle of his Syria policy: to remove Assad from pow- Faceoff. Turkish soldiers surround a Turkish tank in the town of Binnish in Syria’s north-western The United States is er. Turkey played down that goal province of Idlib, near the Syria-Turkey border, February 12. (AFP) eager to exploit the in recent years to smooth relations Turkish-Russian with Russia. tensions. “The fight for freedom of the Syr- “Nobody will be able to push ing the key role in the entente that parts of the territory. ian people is a fight for survival for back the Syrian Army that has gone it once did. The foreign ministers of Russia In a speech February 12, follow- Turkey’s 82 million people,” Erdog- on the offensive,” Yerhov said. “Pa- “The Turkish-Russian partner- and Turkey, Sergei Lavrov and Mev- ing the death of 13 Turkish troops an said. tience has run out. The Syrian Army ship is in very bad shape. There is lut Cavusoglu, were to meet on the in clashes with Syrian government The Kremlin said Turkey failed has decided to take back every inch hardly any common ground left,” sidelines of the Munich Security forces in Idlib since the start of the to deliver on a promise to neutral- of its territory.” he said. “It is a very one-sided rela- Conference. month, Turkish President Recep ise militants in Idlib, something it Analysts said the developments tionship now. Turkey needs Russia The United States is eager to ex- Tayyip Erdogan spelled out an ulti- called unacceptable. The Russian showed that Turkey’s tactics in but there is nothing that Turkey can ploit the Turkish-Russian tensions matum for Assad’s forces. Foreign Ministry reminded Ankara Idlib had run into serious trouble. offer Russia inside Syria.” over Idlib to rebuild a relationship “I hereby declare that we will its forces were in Syria without “The Turkish approach to have a Kerim Has, a Moscow-based ex- with Ankara that has gone from cri- strike regime forces everywhere the blessing of the Syrian govern- light footprint in Idlib and the idea pert on Turkish-Russian relations, sis to crisis in recent years. James from now on regardless of the Sochi ment and the Defence Ministry said that the presence of 12 observation called Erdogan’s speech a “declara- Jeffrey, the US envoy for Syria, was deal if any tiny bit of harm is dealt Turkish troops were seriously ag- posts would be enough to deter the tion of war” against Syria. “It’s his to meet with Turkish officials. The to our soldiers at observation posts gravating the situation in Idlib. regime has totally failed,” Thomas ‘personal war,’” Has said about Er- US Embassy said they would dis- or elsewhere,” Erdogan said in ref- Russian Ambassador to Tur- Pierret, a senior researcher at the dogan. cuss working together towards a erence to 12 Turkish observation key Alexey Yerhov told the Turk- French think-tank CNRS in Aix-en- Following Erdogan’s speech, political solution to the conflict. points in Idlib set up under agree- ish service of the Russian Sputnik Provence, said by telephone. “So Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi “Today, our NATO ally Turkey is ments with Russia. news platform that the second half Turkey has to try something else Akar struck a softer tone by sug- facing a threat from Assad’s gov- Erdogan said Turkey was deter- of January had seen “more than — a massive deployment of troops.” gesting that Turkey would act ernment and Russia. We are here to mined to push Syrian government 1,000” attacks by militants from Pierret said hostility to the US against “radicals” in Idlib that vio- assess the situation with the Turk- forces beyond the observation Idlib against Syrian soldiers, civil- presence in Syria, which had been late a ceasefire there but Akar also ish government and offer support posts by the end of February. “We ians and Russian military installa- “the cement of the Turkish-Russian said Turkey was sending reinforce- if possible,” Jeffrey said after his ar- will do this by any means neces- tions. cooperation,” was no longer play- ments to Idlib to “take control” of rival in Ankara February 11. Tensions with southern separatists put Yemeni president in a bind

The Arab Weekly staff Socotra Mayor Ramzi Mahrous to the STC claimed were aligned with give the forces 24 hours to return to forces from northern . the government’s ranks. Reports said Yemeni Prime Min- London The matter was reportedly re- ister Maeen Abdulmalik Saed met solved days later but issues be- with President Abd Rabbo Mansour he Saudi military dis- tween the rival factions persisted in Hadi in Riyadh to discuss the im- patched reinforcements to other parts of Yemen, particularly plementation of the Riyadh Agree- the Yemeni island of So- in Aden, the temporary capital of ment. T cotra to support the inter- the Yemeni government. The agreement called for the for- nationally recognised government mation of a new government within of Yemen’s forces as tensions be- 30 days of its signing, to be made tween it and the Southern Transi- An opinion article by up of 24 ministers, 12 of whom will tional Council continue. Hammoud Taleb in Okaz be from the south and 12 from the suggested the situation in A military source said Saudi Ara- north. It will also see tens of thou- Troubled. Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi at an bia sent dozens of military vehicles Yemen might improve if sands of STC fighters placed under emergency meeting of Gulf Arab leaders in Mecca, last May. (AP) to the pro-government 2nd Naval Hadi and his government the command of Yemen’s interior Infantry Brigade, Aden Alghad were replaced. and defence ministries. reported February 12. The army However, the deadline for the its main goal. Agreement in November. staged a military parade to show- After troops loyal to the STC pre- government’s formation passed STC President Aidarus al-Zoubai- Recently, for the first time, a pro- case the vehicles and thanked the vented government forces from and renewed hostilities and accusa- di and Hadi have a history of ani- government Saudi newspaper pub- Saudi-led coalition backing the entering Aden, a Saudi military tions between the two sides halted mosity, stemming from Hadi’s firing lished an editorial suggesting that internationally recognised govern- committee tasked with reviving a progress. Zoubaidi as Aden governor in May Hadi should go. ment against the Houthi rebels, the stalled Riyadh peace agreement be- Nevertheless, another deal be- 2017, which led to Zoubaidi joining An opinion article by Hammoud report added. tween the rival factions was sent to tween the two factions was signed the southern separatist movement, Taleb in Okaz suggested the situ- The reinforcements were sent negotiate with the separatists but in January and led to a prisoner ex- which eventually rebranded itself ation in Yemen might improve if during a tense period between the no progress was reported because change. as the STC. Hadi and his government were re- Yemeni government and the South- of the STC’s insistence that the gov- For decades, many southern Yem- In recent years, and despite both placed. He claimed that elements in ern Transitional Council (STC) ernment’s Presidential Protection enis have felt exploited by leaders in fighting the Houthis, the STC has the Hadi government were “collud- separatist movement, which is sup- forces withdraw from the southern the north, mainly former President been a challenge to Hadi’s authority ing with the coalition’s enemies.” ported by the United Arab Emir- town of Shoqra, Al-Masdar Online Ali Abdullah Saleh and his associ- in the south. In August, separatists However, it was not clear whether ates, ’s main partner in reported. ates. The anti-Saleh sentiment led seized Aden and battled govern- he meant the Houthis or the Mus- the coalition fighting the Houthis. The report stated that the STC ex- to the formation of the Southern ment forces in other southern prov- lim Brotherhood Islah movement. A government battalion on So- pressed its “absolute refusal” to al- Mobility Movement in 2007, which inces, which prompted Saudi Ara- Observers said Riyadh was gaug- cotra defected and pledged alle- low the entry of coast guard forces has the re-establishment of South bia and the ing public opinion with the publish- giance to the STC, which prompted before the withdrawal of forces Yemen as an independent state as to step in. That led to the Riyadh ing of the anti-Hadi editorial. February 16, 2020 5 Top news

Alarm over disconnect between diplomatic maelstrom and situation on the ground in

Michel Cousins Turkey installed air defences at Tripoli’s Mitiga airport and at Misra- ta airport, both of which also func- Tunis tion as military bases. Turkish drone attacks were reported on LNA forces ince the beginning of the near Sirte, possibly ahead of Badi’s year, the disconnect between reported offensive. The drones are events inside Libya and those thought to be based at Misrata. S outside the country could Since the Berlin conference, the not been starker. pace of international activity on There have been international Libya has accelerated. Under the meetings and conferences, all de- direction of the UN Support Mis- signed to bring peace to Libya but, sion in Libya and its seemingly in- inside the country, despite a notion- defatigable head, Ghassan Salame, al truce, the Government of Nation- there was the 5+5 military meeting al Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and the in Geneva from February 3-8 with Libyan National Army (LNA) led by five commanders chosen by Sarraj Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar, which and five chosen by Haftar to find a is the capital, appear to be moving way to a permanent ceasefire. From towards fresh fighting. February 9-10 there was a gathering Arms and equipment, as well as in Cairo of Libyan officials and busi- mercenaries, continue to be sup- nessmen to plan economic reforms. plied by foreign backers to both At the same time, in Addis Ababa, sides, despite promises at the Berlin the focus was on the crisis in Libya Conference on Libya in January not at the African Union summit. to do so. The UN Security Council adopted Buoyed by the presence of Syrian two resolutions on Libya. The first mercenaries and militants deployed extended sanctions on Libya relat- by Turkey, which has provided of- ing to the illegal export of crude ficers and military specialists to oil and allowing member states to direct them, the GNA is believed to inspect vessels in open waters. The Doomed truce. A man checks a shell-pocked wall in a street that was reportedly hit during shelling by be planning a counteroffensive to other endorsed the results of the forces loyal to the Libyan National Army in Tripoli’s Batata neighbourhood, February 13. (AFP) break the LNA’s siege. Berlin conference, calling for a last- ing ceasefire and demanding an end to all intervention by member coun- saying there may not be enough number of displaced in the city, of- The fear that a major battle is just Since the Berlin tries in the Libyan conflict, includ- time to choose delegates. However, ficially put at 150,000, was much ahead continues to push Tripoli conference, the number ing the provision of mercenaries. it is thought that the names will ap- higher, possibly 200,000. residents to seek safety elsewhere. of Syrian mercenaries At the same time, during a hear- pear at the 11th hour and delegates The city faces economic as well The number of Tripoli-registered dispatched by Turkey to ing at the US Senate in Washington will turn up. as social collapse. With the LNA of- vehicles on the streets in Tunisia is Libya is believed to have on US-Libya policy, Democratic On February 18 there is to be an- fensive into its 11th month, the visibly on the increase. more than doubled. and Republican senators expressed other meeting of the 5+5 military United Nations said 220 schools and While the indications are that concern that Russia was making in- committee which, at the last meet- 13 health facilities have been closed. both sides are gearing up for war, There are reports of a major force roads into Libya and said that had to ing, failed to agree to a permanent Maurer said one-quarter of all despite international efforts in the gathering in Misrata, under radical be reversed. ceasefire, and of the economic track Libyans need assistance in ar- other direction, the disconnect commander Salah Badi, intent on The hectic international pace con- in March. eas such as health facilities, water, within those efforts is playing a ma- recapturing Muammar Qaddafi’s tinues. An invitation went out from Neighbouring Tunisia and housing and education. The assess- jor part. hometown of Sirte, which fell to the German Foreign Minister Heiko are coordinating policies on Libya, ment does not consider the closure One observer recently suggested LNA in early January. Maas and Salame for a follow-up to following Algeria’s suggestion to of the oil refinery at Zawia, west of that, like the legend of Emperor Since the Berlin conference, the the Berlin conference on the side- the African Union that it should Tripoli, because of the closure of the Nero playing his fiddle while Rome number of Syrian mercenaries dis- lines of the Munich Security Confer- host a Libya conference. is oil pipeline from the Sharara oilfield burned, the international commu- patched by Turkey to Libya is be- ence, scheduled for February 16. also said to be planning a Libya con- in south-western Libya by forces nity is doing the same while Libya lieved to have more than doubled. The political track meeting, Feb- ference. linked to the LNA in January. burns. Although, perhaps in this In mid-January, the figure was put ruary 26 in Geneva, is to be attend- The diplomatic maelstrom is in Although a large proportion of case it is a complete orchestra that at approximately 1,000. Now, es- ed by 13 members each from the stark contrast with what is hap- petrol and other fuel is imported is playing, with several performers timates of the number range from Tobruk-based House of Representa- pening in Libya where there is little by Libya, the refinery produces a playing completely different tunes 2,500-6,000. tives (HoR) and the Tripoli-based more than lip service to internation- significant amount of petrol, diesel but pretending to follow the same There were unconfirmed reports State Council plus 14 others invited al efforts to end the crisis. and other much-needed fuel for the score. The result is a dangerous ca- of Syrian government fighters head- by the United Nations. Tripoli is suffering in many ways. local market. cophony, not a symphony. ing to Libya to fight with the LNA. The HoR appears to be dragging International Committee of the Red The shutdown was expected to This raises the bizarre prospect of its feet on attending, with the head Cross President Peter Maurer, who result in further power outages and Michel Cousins is a contributor to Syrians fighting Syrians in Tripoli. of its Foreign Affairs Committee recently visited Tripoli, said the associated cuts in the water supply. The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Morocco’s ties with Turkey sour over regional politics, trade

Saad Guerraoui Rabat expressed “its deep aston- a trade deficit of $1.9 billion with ishment at being excluded” from Turkey. Elalamy admitted that Mo- the Berlin Conference on Libya in a rocco’s textile industry had badly London statement issued January 18. suffered from the agreement, with “Morocco played a decisive role in more than 122,000 jobs lost in the orocco’s ties with Turkey the conclusion of the Skhirat Agree- sector from 2014-17. have soured both politi- ments, which are, to date, the only “We intervened three years ago cally and economically political framework — supported by as a ministry to introduce customs M following reports that the UN Security Council and accept- taxes but it is impossible to extend Rabat recalled its ambassador to ed by all the Libyan protagonists — the restriction more than three Ankara and asked for a re-evalua- for the resolution of the crisis in this years and we have arrived in 2020,” tion of a free trade agreement be- brotherly Maghreb country,” the Elalamy told parliament. “Morocco tween the two countries. Foreign Ministry said. is asking either to revise the terms Ambassador Mohamed Ali Lazrak A video broadcast in December on of the agreement or to shred it.” was recalled in January by the Mo- a Turkish state television channel Some Moroccan MPs slammed rocco Foreign Ministry, which is yet about a Sahrawi separatist almost what they called the “Erdoganian to issue an official statement about sparked a political crisis between Anatolia,” an aggressive economic the incident, Moroccan magazine Rabat and Ankara at a time when policy against the Moroccan mar- Telquel reported, citing an anony- Morocco was considering renegotia- ket led by Turkish President Recep mous diplomatic source. tion of a free trade agreement (FTA) Tayyip Erdogan. between the two countries. Economic analyst Mehdi El Fakir Some Moroccan MPs Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut said the FTA needed to be reviewed slammed what they Cavusoglu downplayed the video, following proof of Turkey’s dump- ing policy. “The Turkish govern- Erdoganian strategy. BIM shop in Casablanca. called the “Erdoganian calling it a “misunderstanding” dur- ing a news conference with Moroc- ment would not have accepted to Anatolia,” an aggressive can Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita revise the FTA if the dumping poli- the opening of BIM stores in several market. “The Turkish retail chain economic policy against in Rabat. cy had not been harmful to the Mo- neighbourhoods. has been abnormally in deficit since the Moroccan market led Trade ties between Morocco and roccan economy,” said Fakir. BIM Chief Financial Officer Haluk its creation. It looks like there is a by Turkish President Turkey are going through a crisis Elalamy warned Turkish discount Dortluoglu told Reuters that most disguised dumping policy,” said Fa- Erdogan. because of a huge trade deficit in fa- retailer BIM Stores to raise the pro- of the low-cost retailer’s goods kir. vour of Turkey. Moroccan Minister portion of local goods it sells in its were bought from Morocco. “We BIM continues to support its Mo- Analysts said Morocco’s decision for Industry, Trade and the Green shops across the country to at least are sending only around 15% of our roccan subsidiary although the lat- followed Turkey’s move to send and Digital Economy Moulay Hafid half or face closure. products sold in Morocco from Tur- ter has gone through several mul- troops to Libya to fight alongside Elalamy said that Turkey had agreed “If we get at least 50% of the lo- key. The rest, 85%, are bought from timillion-dollar recapitalisations in forces loyal to the UN-recognised to revise the FTA with Morocco to cal goods sold in BIM stores, we can local producers,” said Dortluoglu. the past eight years. Government of National Accord make it mutually beneficial. understand but this is not the case,” Fakir raised a question about led by Fayez al-Sarraj against an of- The FTA, which entered into force he said. BIM’s loss-making business in Mo- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor fensive by fighters loyal to eastern- in 2006, backfired on Morocco’s He argued that dozens of local rocco despite its ongoing negative to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb based Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. economy as the country posted businesses shut down following financial results in the Moroccan issues. 6 February 16, 2020 Opinion

Editorial Population growth in the gypt’s population hit the 100 million mark February 11. With an average of 2 million babies born each year, the Egyptian popula- tion has tripled since 1967. Urbanisation-related issues, such as Eover-crowdedness, clogged traffic and pollution, are exerting tremendous pressure on the country. Cairo and the province of Giza count no fewer than 19 million inhabitants. Authorities are building a new capital 45km east of Cairo but the demographic problem is unlikely to ease soon, with or without that new metropo- lis. Hala el-Said, Egyptian minister of planning and economic development, said demographic growth is likely to lead to a decline in per capita share of housing, educational and health services and job creation. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has put overpopulation “among the biggest threats facing Egypt,” on a par with terrorism. As with most Arab countries, Egypt has a youthful population with just more than 60% under the age of 30 and the youth unemployment rate is nearly 35%. One-third of the population lives below the threshold of poverty. The government, which has introduced a “Two is Enough” campaign to limit births, is battling sceptical mindsets, especially in the countryside, where large families are considered an asset to © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly maximise sources of income. Across the region, demographic growth is relatively slowing. UN figures state that MENA’s population growth rate was expected to slow from its current 1.7% to 0.8% by the middle of the The big picture in Syria century. By 2030, it will be 1.3%. The overall population number will grow from 338 million in 2000 to 724 million in 2050. Only Lebanon’s population is predicted to shrink. Khairallah Khairallah Growth will be uneven across the region, as What is regrettable is that Lebanon’s political leadership cannot absorb the “countries that are fragile or in conflict and poorer countries tend to have faster-growing complexities of the Syrian situation on a scale larger than small local policies. populations,” the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said. The population of half of MENA countries will here is a distribu- quired of him: destroy Syria. not only summoned Assad to increase 50% from 2015-50 and is likely to double tion of roles in Before the rise to power of a Russian base but was keen to in Iraq, Sudan and the Palestinian territories. In northern Syrian the Ba’ath Party and its empty visit the Umayyad Mosque and absolute terms, Egypt will add 60 million to its at the expense of slogans on March 8, 1963, Syria the Orthodox Patriarchate in population, Iraq 45 million and Sudan 42 million, the Syrian people. was bustling with commercial the city, sending a strong signal during the period. Figures released activity and was set to become that Russia gives importance to The MENA region is in a demographic transition Tby the United Nations indicate a country capable of providing the role of the Sunnis in Syria that constitutes a major challenge but also an opportunity. “With fewer births each year, a that there are 700,000 ad- a model for the region. and cares about the Christian country’s young dependent population decreases ditional refugees from north- Recent developments in minority there. in relation to its working-age population and with western Syria. It is a staggering Syria revealed that Turkey This does not mean that fewer people to support, the country has a figure that reflects the scale of knows what it wants and that Russia is ready to get rid of Iran window of opportunity for rapid economic the tragedy that the world has its goals are specific. This in Syria. Moscow needs the growth, noted a recent UNICEF report. been watching for years. is what the Americans and ground contribution of the Ira- However, nowhere are the Arab world’s popu- It seems Turkey is adamant the Russians also know. Oc- nian and Iran-backed militias, lous states seizing that opportunity. In all on establishing a safety zone casional confrontations take given that its military interven- likelihood, the problem of population growth will 35km deep inside Syrian ter- place between Moscow and tion relies more on the air force compound existing socio-economic pressures. Increasing demand on resources connected to ritory. Ankara is doing this Ankara but these interactions than anything else. population growth can negate whatever progress through an agreement with soon find their way to settle- A country such as Lebanon, is achieved in terms of economic growth. Moscow, which wants to have ments, often at the expense of facing the risk of collapse, must Youth unemployment coupled with deteriorat- the Syrian regime’s forces, the Syrians. avoid using the issue of Syrian ing public services and the perception of govern- with the help of Iranian mili- From the beginning, Turkey refugees as a scapegoat for its ment corruption are already sparking chronic tias, control the major routes has played all the roles that internal problems. Lebanon’s street protests. such as the Aleppo-Hama road contributed to bringing Syria to collapse was caused by the Beyond demographics, populations across the and the Jisr al-Shughour-Alep- its current state. politics of the “Hezbollah era” region expect improvement in their standard of po road. Turkey has accepted hun- that began with the election living, better governance and more efficient management of resources. These are the outlines of dreds of thousands of Syrians of as president of the battle in northern Syria but Turkish President Recep Lebanon on October 31, 2016. that includes Idlib. There are Tayyip Erdogan has also sold Before that era, which Iran’s satellite launch Russian-Turkish understand- many illusions to the Syrians removed all walls separating ings and there is an American before it became clear that he Lebanese state institutions and reflects larger failure eagerness for a Turkish role suffers from many personality Hezbollah, the party’s weapons in the area within the frame- disorders, including delusions had a role in drawing Lebanon espite the usual propaganda rituals that work of a general agreement of grandeur, thinking that the into the Syrian quagmire. The accompany its regime-orchestrated between Washington and region has never seen a more party caused the displacement events, Iran’s celebration of the 41st Ankara. charismatic leader than him- of tens of thousands of Syrians anniversary of the Islamic Revolution Until the picture in north- self. To prove to the Syrians to Lebanon through its direct highlighted Tehran’s problems with the ern Syria becomes clearer, the that their fate is the last thing participation in cleansing areas world and with its own population. DFor the occasion, Iran attempted to launch a tragedy of the Syrian people on his mind, Erdogan finds in the vicinity of Damascus and satellite into orbit. The celebratory intent of the gets renewed daily and their nothing better to do than send along the Lebanese borders of launch was illustrated by the name given to the exodus increases. It doesn’t Syrian fighters to Libya to fight their Sunni inhabitants, just as satellite: Zafar — Farsi for “Victory,” it was called. look like the Syrian war is a battle that has nothing to do the Syrian regime wished. That “Failure” could have been a more appropriate name. over. In fact, it looks like it is with Syria and the Syrians. was also Iran’s wish, which is The satellite exploded and fell to Earth before in its infancy despite all these It is necessary to look at the working to change in the demo- reaching orbit. The attempt triggered suspicions of years. The only constants of big picture and not just at what graphic composition of Syria. an intent by Tehran to use its space programme for the affair are that the regime is going on in northern Syria. Every time the Syrian issue ballistic development purposes, especially that that has been in existence for The big picture shows what is is raised, it is inevitable to Tehran also unveiled a new a short-range ballistic missile. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ 50 years has no future and that going on in Syria is an integral return to the big picture, which website said the Raad-500 missile was equipped with Syria, as we know it, no longer part of the changes in the means, among other things, new-generation engines. exists. region, including the decline of that betting on the Syrian France, among other Western countries, con- Syria is not only fragmented the Iranian role. regime is misplaced. There are demned the launch, “which calls on technologies but requires $250 billion-$300 This does not mean that understandings along broad used for ballistic missiles and, in particular, inter- billion to be rebuilt. Where the Iranian role is no longer lines taking shape within the continental ballistic missiles.” is that money going to come present in Syria. Rather, it context of five foreign occupa- “Iran’s ballistic programme hurts regional stability from? All we know is that the means that Russia is closer tions: Israeli, American, Rus- and affects European security. France calls on Iran to existing regime is not going to to grabbing many threads in sian, Turkish and Iranian. fully respect its international obligations in this matter.” step down and leave Damas- Damascus. Russian President What is regrettable is that In the usual propensity of the regime at exaggerat- cus even if that means the end Vladimir Putin’s visit to Da- Lebanon’s political leadership ing and distorting the facts, Information and of Syria. mascus in early January was cannot absorb the complexi- Communications Technology Minister Mohammad- The title chosen by Sam not a chance one. It was im- ties of the Syrian situation on Javad Azari Jahromi still found reason to celebrate. Dagher for his book on Syria mediately after Iranian Major- a scale larger than small local “But We’re UNSTOPPABLE! We have more Upcom- best summarises the situation: General Qassem Soleimani’s policies. What is even more ing Great Iranian Satellites!” he tweeted, before “Assad or We Burn the Coun- assassination by the Americans unfortunate is that more and euphemistically admitting that “sometimes life does try.” Syria and the Syrians will and we know that the slain more Syrians will be displaced not go the way we like it to go.” be sacrificed for the survival of commander of al-Quds as the war becomes more and Life is bound to continue not going Tehran’s way as long as its rulers follow aggressive and costly Syrian President Bashar Assad Force played a pivotal role in more complex. ambitions that have nothing to do with the demands in Damascus but his survival enabling Assad to remain in of their increasingly discontented population. is not crucial because he has Damascus. Khairallah Khairallah already fulfilled the role re- While in Damascus, Putin is a Lebanese writer. February 16, 2020 7 Opinion Untangling the roots of change in Lebanon Elie Abouaoun and Darine El Hage Published by Al Arab Publishing House Sustainable change requires that the constellation of actors emerging from this organic movement work strategically and be driven by a focused agenda. Publisher and Group Executive Editor he October 17 justice systems to try political cal party system and sectarian realm is an abrupt assas- Haitham El-Zobaidi, nation-wide leaders for their crimes and identity politics, overlooking sination of diversity. More protests, financial wrongdoings, especially when the root societal causes of the important, it will not address PhD crisis and subse- the leaders are the product of problem. corruption, societal seclusion, quent security a power-sharing arrangement Political expedience discrimination — whether Editor-in-Chief incidents in Leba- that mirrors the mosaic of the reigned, paving the way for in laws or practice — or give Oussama Romdhani Tnon shook a 30-year-old community. a dismissive approach by the equal right to non-religiously status quo. Across Lebanon’s It is inconceivable, both government. The establish- affiliated citizens to access religious and political groups, conceptually and logistically, ment’s patronising response power because it will lead Managing Editor new voices emerged, employ- to investigate all previous pays lip service to the de- to another form of populist Iman Zayat ing rights-based language and and current parliamentarians, mands of the people but does authoritarian regime. advocating for accountability. prime ministers, ministers, not commit to real change. Its Even in the world’s so- Senior Editor The chorus of new voices senior bureaucrats and other ineptitude, matched only by called highly developed John Hendel included many who had long potentially involved individu- shrewdness, generated fig- democracies, which either deified deep-seated feudal als, corporations and security leaf solutions that preserved are or claim to be secular, leaders, not just habitual apparatus within a realistic an ailing oligarchy. discrimination and corruption Chief Copy Editor protesters. Amid uncertainty time frame. Lebanon’s court Real change is not as sim- can take root, societies can Richard Pretorius and a new illegitimate govern- system is neither equipped ple as installing a government form fissures and social move- ment, the country can still nor perceived as independent of “independent experts,” ments calling for changes to Copy Editors avoid a wrong turn. or impartial and evidence is commonly called in Lebanon government do not always With public spaces open often inaccessible and una- “technocrats,” particularly if occur on the same timeline as Stephen Quillen to community debates on a vailable. those are beholden to political elections. Kyle Arensdorf way forward, a vibrant youth masters or hostages of the lat- For these initial tremors movement surfaced, eager ter’s’ power dynamics. to lead to real and durable East/West Editor to reverse the narrative of an The popular Outrage against political change, three critical outputs older and incapacitated gen- parties is legitimate. Never- that require collaborative Mahmud El-Shafey eration. Among activists who uprising is a theless, advocates of change thinking and action among the often felt isolated, even from reminder that the should, rather than demonis- different stakeholders should Gulf Section Editor constituencies they fought flames of hope have ing them, call for new and be considered. for, coy whispers of change reformed political organisa- First, come up with an Mohammed Alkhereiji among angry howls turned not been tions embracing realistic and electoral law that steers the into shouts of hope that extinguished; far measurable programmes that various constituencies away Society and Travel drowned out the fury. There address actual problems and from the overplayed sectarian Sections Editor was even a much-adored from it, the sparks concerns instead of clinging politics but still recognises Samar Kadi rendition of “Baby Shark” that of a new to ill-defined conceptual nar- the diversity of identities and reminded us and the world of generation’s hopes ratives. views them as the cornerstone Senior Correspondents Lebanon’s spirit during times Political participation is the of an inclusive citizenship. Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) of adversity. have just been lit. cornerstone of democracy and Such a law would assert (Istanbul) Inasmuch as the crisis did activism, including finding a the compatibility between Thomas Seibert not discriminate along sectar- On the other hand, show group that represents one’s multiple subnational and a Regular Columnists ian lines, those reacting to trials — mostly selective — values, is a sacred political single national identity. Such the crisis on the street found that fail to uphold principles right. Such groups remain an an effort has been initiated by Rashmee Roshan Lall unity despite coming from di- of due process (or no trials important vehicle for change the Adyan Foundation and is Claude Salhani verse backgrounds. Each time at all) risk replacing just ac- and a key stakeholder in the worth investing in. Yavuz Baydar the protests seemed to de- countability with a punitive country’s social compact with Second, reform the judici- volve into clashes — whether and vindictive process. This the people. ary. The newly established between citizens and security would fall short of the goals of The same is true of the un- and promising Lebanon’s Correspondents officers or involving armed advancing justice, reconcilia- defined “sectarianism,” which Judges’ Association put for- Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) groups bent on preserving tion and stability. means different things to dif- ward worthwhile ideas and the old system — Lebanon’s As there is no one-size-fits- ferent people, vilified to the the protest movement would Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) wise, including strong-willed all approach to implementing extent of becoming a ghost benefit greatly by giving the Roua Khlifi (Tunis) mothers, reminded the new accountability, the aftermath enemy. Without proper defini- lead on this matter to the generation of the costs of war of the 2011 uprisings in the tion, decrying sectarianism association, while applying Chief Designer and called for reason. region shows that throwing a is smearing the basic concept pressure as needed once the Seeking justice and ac- handful of senior leaders in jail of diversity as the source of club starts pushing for policy Marwen el-Hmedi countability is vital, not only (or exiling or executing them) all troubles in the country. change. to fight impunity but to revive does not in itself help reform To be sure, manipulating Third, and most pivotal, Designers transitional justice processes the institutional legacies they the fear of some religious or assess a workable solution Ibrahim Ben Bechir and reconciliation following created. Furthermore, this political groups and echoing related to the amount of Hanen Jebali years of conflicts and internal approach does not help mend the rhetoric of the civil war losses resulting from the unrest. The crucial question distorted social norms, nor reinforces segregation and 30-plus years of corrupt and remains the feasibility of the does it prevent future atroci- further empowers religious incompetent politics and force “All means all” slogan that the ties or corruption. If anything, warmongers. a fair burden-sharing scheme Contact editor at: protesters are pushing for. regime decapitation often However, as fanciful and among the various actors — History shows that fragile further polarises societies. politically correct as it looks, government, private sector, [email protected] and volatile societies, par- While Lebanon’s citizenry overlooking that the Lebanese banking sector, Central Bank, ticularly those deeply divided has showed resilience and system reflects an entrenched taxpayers, et cetera. Obvious- by mistrust, have rarely been evolution, a flimsy diagnosis individual religious identity ly, the lesser burden should be able to rely on conventional blamed sweepingly the politi- projecting into the political borne by taxpayers while the heaviest by the banking sector Al Arab Publishing House and central bank. Quadrant Building This last initiative is the 177-179 Hammersmith Road hardest and actors, such as London W6 8BS banks, with a lot of leverage will resist. Therefore, the pro- test movement should focus almost exclusively on setting Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 the agenda for this discussion, Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 making sure it happens and weighing in on the outcome. This popular uprising is a reminder that the flames US Publisher: of hope have not been ex- tinguished; far from it, the The Arab Weekly USA LLC. sparks of a new generation’s [email protected] hopes have just been lit. However, sustainable [email protected] change requires that the con- Tel: 248-679-6624 stellation of actors emerging from this organic movement work strategically and be driven by a focused agenda to address the pressing financial situation. Controversial social issues do need to be discussed Subscription & Advertising: but in a way that does not [email protected] create exclusionary political Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 and social practices under the label of a different political system. Mohamed Al Mufti Marketing & Advertising (Elie Abouaoun is director Manager of MENA programme at the US Institute of Peace. Darine Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 El Hage is a human rights www.alarab.co.uk Opening curtains. People walk past a mural painted by Lebanese artist Roula Abdo, in downtown Beirut. advocate and peace-building (Reuters) practitioner.) 8 February 16, 2020 Viewpoint Iraq

For Iraq, balance and independence are not the same vis-a-vis US, Iran

Tens of thousands demand- Sabahat Khan ing a US withdrawal protested in response suggesting — without hen the United discounting Iran’s encouragement States killed and support for such — that was Iran’s most im- nonetheless a part of Iraqi society portant military that wants the United States out. leader, Major- It is true there are wider US General Qas- strategic interests in Iraq, not least Wsem Soleimani, together with Abu containing Iran’s influence and dis- Mahdi al-Muhandis, commander of rupting the formation of a contigu- Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces, ous Shia Crescent extending from in a dramatic drone strike, Iraq’s Iran through Iraq and Syria into political landscape was rocked. Lebanon. Soleimani had been described The killing of Soleimani was an as the most powerful man in Iraq intensification of the “maximum by Iraqi politicians themselves. pressure” campaign being pursued The reality of Iran’s expansive and by the United States as it seeks to far-reaching influence in Iraq is force a change in Iran’s regional an increasingly controversial and activities and bring it back to the divisive subject for its people as negotiating table over its highly widespread disdain builds against publicised nuclear programme. a political elite seen to be too will- US President Donald Trump has ing to take their cue from Tehran. made known his desire to “end The backdrop of Iran’s intense endless wars” and Iran-allied Shia rivalry with the United States — militias in Iraq have the potential the country that ended Saddam to make America’s stay in Iraq Hussein regime at great cost in short and uncomfortable if they blood and treasure to itself and genuinely wish for that to hap- Iraq — adds to the complex and pen. Despite their rhetoric to the (AFP) Strong perseverance. An Iraqi holds a placard during an anti-government protest in Basra, February 11. often conflicting realities of Iraq’s contrary, Tehran and its proxies strategic environment. have recognised the utility of the The post-Saddam era has seen United States in ensuring a stable Baghdad desperate for continu- and secure Iraq. Slim chances of mould-breaking ous support from both the United Iraq’s anxiety over being caught States and Iran, either of which in the crossfire between the United could have become spoilers as it States and Iran is not misplaced battled to avoid a descent into a but it is far from certain whether cabinet for Iraqi Prime Minister sectarian-based civil war and then an expulsion of US forces is the a potential break-up along ethnic appropriate solution, at least now. lines and the fight against the The return of ISIS remains a threat. To keep the government ing judgment over the interim Islamic State (ISIS). Besides, the prospect of becoming functioning is to work collabora- government’s security strategy The United States and Iran were fully absorbed into Iran’s regional tively. While the United States’ before it has been formed. both fully invested in their own axis, which could be precipitated Nazli Tarzi democratic experiment in Iraq Allawi has not uttered any ways in preventing Iraq from fall- by an American departure, may has fallen into disarray, erasure words in favour or in opposition ing into civil war or splitting up prove to be a total write-off for of the formulas that govern it is a to the hastened departure of and then in defeating ISIS and both Iraq’s future. n independent cabi- fanciful proposal. foreign forces or whether future have viewed Iraq as a focal point That is especially problematic net as promised by Negotiations are under way legislation covers the status of for their strategic rivalry to play because Iran-backed militias are Iraqi Prime Minister after Allawi recently met with Iranian commanders and militia out. believed to have an estimated Mohammed Allawi Abdul-Mahdi. Similar meetings fighters. Anxious that the killing of manpower of more than 150,000, will test the limits have taken place between Allawi Before Allawi can satisfy his Soleimani could provoke a US-Iran which are trying to consolidate of a political order, and other counterparts. Foreign promise of a government free military conflict that would engulf their power by securing com- survivingA by the skin of its teeth. Minister Mohamed al-Hakim and from factional quotas, the con- Iraq itself, its lawmakers passed a missions, government jobs and The constitutional deadline of Kurdish Regional Government sensus candidate must please the non-binding resolution to expel contracts for loyalists and even March 2 grants Allawi a lim- President Nechirvan Barzani also sides that delivered him to power. foreign forces — a move directed at generating protection money from ited window to build consensus had talks on the political process. Representatives of the protest the 5,000 troops Washington has businesses. There is a danger that among rival parties and gain the A new style of governance that movement met with Allawi but stationed in Iraq, officially to fight Iran-allied militias in Iraq, like trust of a population that flatly allows independent and hon- the gesture may not calm the ISIS. elsewhere, could become more dif- rejected him. est politicians to rule is a tall Iraqi streets whose relentless The move would have compro- ficult to control after the death of Railing against the old guard order that, if motioned, would protests have roiled the country mised Iraq’s broader counterterror- Soleimani. would transcend modes of ap- strip ruling parties of their post- for months. Another expected ism efforts and much-needed se- Iran has looked to Iraq to offset pointment that guided previous 2003-made gains. The grip that move to placate the masses is curity cooperation with the United the effects of biting economic sanc- administrations. Those it has kept certain actors have over minis- the formation of a committee to States but the underlying idea was tions imposed by the United States. comfortably seated in power are tries — health for the Sadrists and persecute those responsible for that Iraq needed to avoid becoming Iranian products, from refrigera- unlikely to agree with methods interior for Badr and more — can the death of protesters. an international battleground or tors to cars, dairy and foodstuffs, that upset the existing hierarchy. be unfastened if real and imple- Protesters are not calling for launchpad against Iran. are readily available in the market mentable measures are adopted. improved governance but rather There is, however, a bigger pic- at the expense of Iraqi producers Other matters, such as the a new model that guides cabinet ture to Iraq’s balancing act between and the jobs they would create. United States’ withdrawal from appointments away from undue the United States and Iran: Since The United States imposing No plan towards Iraq, are more pressing concerns sectarian and political considera- October, more than 600 Iraqis have economic sanctions on Iraq on top curtailing corruption for those who dominate local tions. died in anti-government protests of this, which it has suggested to politics. “Allawi’s government No plan towards curtailing that have railed against endemic be likely if it was forced to leave has been unveiled and will set a new time frame for the corruption has been unveiled and corruption, political mismanage- the country, would have a crunch- the process of forming withdrawal of foreign forces,” the process of forming a govern- ment and excessive meddling by ing economic impact in addition to a government remains said Mohamed al Baldawi, deputy ment remains conditional on an Iran, which many see as having removing for Baghdad an essen- of al-Sadiquon parliamentary agreement between parties. Disa- effectively wrestled control of the tial counterweight to Iran’s still conditional on an bloc. greement will prolong the process country’s political agenda and creeping but now highly politicised agreement between Competition will centre not on that under previous administra- direction. influence. the logic that keeps the wheels of tions has been recurrent. The protests, still raging, have Soleimani’s death is undoubtedly parties. government moving but rather on The domino cascade this would been heavily youth-led, unsurpris- a serious setback for Tehran, which the distribution of prized portfo- cause will most certainly delay ing given nearly half of the Iraqi was forced to review its strategy Cabinet overhaul can succeed lios. the 2020 budget and the attempt population is under the age of 17. after the departure of a figure who if endorsed by parliament but Painting the competition as a ri- to have early elections. When Iraqi Prime Minister Adel was indispensable to its activities. chances of Allawi siding with valry between Muqtada al-Sadr’s Allawi’s cabinet shakedown Abdul-Mahdi, then known to be As this happens, Iraq must per- those who approved his nomina- camp and the Popular Mobilisa- may not deliver the independent on his way out because of grow- suade Iran to review its approach, tion are greater than waging a tion Units is a mischaracterisa- state protesters’ demand if min- ing protests, called on US officials its political meddling and patron- one-man revolt against the sec- tion. istries are allotted to members of for discussions over a withdrawal age of militias that have become tarian apportionment system. This best explains why Sadrist the known pool of candidates. after Soleimani’s killing, the United synonymous with corruption, Allawi’s proposed independent members of parliament walked Iran is not willing to stand aside States deflected his demand. together with securing new politi- cabinet may mark a new political out of a parliamentary session after years of swaying cabinet cal assurances from Washington to showdown, between jostling Shia last year in opposition to Abdul- choices to its advantage. keep Iraq out of any fights against factions. Mahdi’s nomination of Falih Smaller actors who fared well in Iran that it cannot afford to host. The prime minister, a two-time Alfayyadh, head of the pro-Iran recent elections, such as al-Sadr’s Iraq must persuade Yet, if Iraq wants truly to avoid communications minister, de- parliamentary Popular Mobilisa- camp, will seize the opportunity becoming a battleground for oth- rives strength not from the street tion Forces (PMF). That deprived shuffle forward but whether big- Iran to review its ers’ fights, its political elite will but from the parliamentary blocs Fatah, the PMF-aligned parlia- ger blocs stand down is yet to be approach, its political need to decide how the country that endorsed his name as a peace mentary bloc, of a bigger slice of seen. However, Allawi’s choices meddling and will effectively lower its tolerance offering, owing to his Dawa party the cabinet pie. will deliver no mould-breaking threshold for local militias. credentials despite his rivalry In the wider policy-making cabinet in the next interim gov- patronage of militias with former Prime Minister Nuri landscape, the two sides are likely ernment for Iraq. that have become Sabahat Khan maintains a cross- al-Maliki, who stood alone in to lobby for Iranian interests. The disciplinary focus in international rejecting Allawi’s succession to political components that Abdul- Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly synonymous with security, defence policy and Adel Abdul-Mahdi. Mahdi sought to balance are pass- correspondent in London. corruption. strategic issues. February 16, 2020 9 News & Analysis Syria Could an Alawite be the future head of a double-edged Syrian opposition?

Special Correspondent ment, back at a time when Damas- cus was on very favourable terms with the European Union. Beirut Fadel was recently chosen to join the 150-member Constitutional ntil surfacing in the Syr- Committee, which started work ian opposition media late in October under the auspices of last year, few had heard of the United Nations. In December, U Nibras al-Fadel, a former he attended a hastily assembled adviser to Syrian President Bashar conference in Riyadh, convened to Assad. The Paris-based economist replace eight members of the High is suddenly in the spotlight, para- Negotiations Committee (HNC) chuted into the High Negotiations deemed to have questionable loy- Committee by Saudi Arabia in De- alties to Turkey and its president, Musical chairs. A 2017 file photo shows a meeting of a delegation of Syria’s main opposition High cember and expected to replace its Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Negotiations Committee with the UN special envoy for Syria during peace talks in Geneva. (AFP) negotiations head, Naser al-Hariri. Fadel was one of the eight new Some say he might replace Hadi faces ushered into the HNC, under al-Bahra, co-president of the Con- the watchful eye of Saudi Arabia. sation, no different from al-Qaeda. ing former dean of the faculty of the political process to its liking. stitutional Committee, who is con- Hariri was excluded from the meet- More important, Fadel is an economics at Damascus University. The Muslim Brotherhood would sidered by many in the opposition ing, explaining why many say his Alawite, hailing from the same Fadel makes a third, although he undoubtedly reject his nomination to be weak and politically inexperi- days are numbered as head of the religious minority as Assad. Few has far less of a profile than either because of his father and the fact enced. Syrian opposition. Alawites have joined the Syrian op- Soliman or Dalila. that he is an Alawite. They have Fadel’s father, Mohammad, is position since the outbreak of the If it does happen, propping an no representation in the Constitu- well known in Syria. A co-founder conflict in 2011, fearing the wrath Alawite as head of the opposition tional Committee, however, but are Few Alawites have joined of the ruling Ba’ath Party, he was of their community or scared off by is a double-edged sword. True, it strongly represented in the Syrian the Syrian opposition since close to former Syrian President the radical Sunni elements among might prompt some Alawites to National Coordination Committee the outbreak of the conflict Hafez Assad and became president the armed groups, who have re- reconsider but not many because for Democratic Change. in 2011, fearing the wrath of of Damascus University. He was as- peatedly promised to slaughter the they know little to nothing about Turkey is unimpressed with Sau- their community or scared sassinated by the Syrian branch of Alawites, who make up roughly 12% Fadel. di Arabia’s attempts at monopolis- off by the radical Sunni the Muslim Brotherhood in 1977. of the Syrian population. A slogan Such a move runs the high risk of ing the opposition, accusing it of elements. At the time, the Brotherhood raised early in the Syrian uprising alienating a wide segment of armed trespassing on territory that has was assassinating any government was: “Christians to Beirut, Alawites opposition groups with an exclu- been mostly in Erdogan’s hands Fadel’s name failed to attract figure it could get its hands on, re- to the grave!” sively Sunni agenda, all on Turkish since 2011. much attention because he left gardless of sect, ranging from offic- All opposition groups failed to payroll. Veterans who have been Whatever little reason Turkey Syria years before the war started ers and pilots to doctors, engineers provide assurances to the Alawites active in opposition ranks would had to cooperate with the interna- in 2011. Meaning he did not defect, and university professors. and other minority groups, explain- reject him, claiming he is a political tional community on Syria has van- like former Prime Minister Riyad Since then, his son Nibras has ing why many rallied behind the re- nobody with no history of service ished, as Ankara’s relationship with Hijab nor did he play any memora- had nothing but spite for the out- gime, fearing the unknown should to the Syrian uprising. They would Russia collapses over the renewed ble role in any of the political par- lawed Islamist group, making him the regime collapse. say he knows little about Syria, hav- assault on Idlib. Freed from all ob- ties and initiatives that surfaced in an automatic nuisance to Turkey One of the Alawites who marked ing lived most of his life abroad. ligations they had made to Russian the nearly decade-long war. and an asset to countries such as a visible exception was actor Ga- Some said he is not really a mem- President Vladimir Putin, the Turks During his tenure in Syria, Fadel Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir- mal Soliman, now working with ber of the opposition, claiming will push for figures who are pro- played a crucial role in negotiating ates and Egypt, who all consider the Egypt-based Cairo Platform. Fadel is connected to Damascus and Erdogan to the bone, earning Fadel the Syrian-EU Partnership Agree- the Brotherhood a terrorist organi- Another was Aref Dalila, the age- would discreetly try to influence an immediate veto from Ankara.

Viewpoint Rising discontent in Syria’s Daraa, Sweida reflects simmering woes

espite their myriad mysterious circumstances. traumatising for the approxi- by regime-linked militias, many differences, the Sweida’s stance not to become mately 700,000 members of the of which have core Iranian ele- communities of embroiled in the conflict was Syrian Druze community and for ments. The online news portal Stephen Starr Daraa and Sweida a calculated decision meant the thousands of Greek Ortho- Syria Direct counted 102 demon- governorates in to preserve the Druze minor- dox Christians inhabiting the strations since that time. southern Syria face ity from a war of unparalleled area. Dozens of the kidnapped “Expressions of dissent have Dthe same difficulties in dealing brutality. As such, it was spared women and children weren’t taken different forms, ranging with the regime of Syrian Presi- the shelling, air strikes, execu- returned for four months and, from sit-ins, blocking of roads dent Bashar Assad. tions and starvation that befell when they were, the celebra- and writing protest slogans on Daraa is famously known as countless other regions up and tions were cynically co-opted public property, coordinated at- the cradle of the 2011 Syrian down the country. by the regime’s propaganda tacks on government forces pre- uprising. Nine years ago, its The leadership of the Syrian machine and state media. sent in southern Syria,” Walid townsfolk were responsible for regime has a long memory when Anger at the regime remains. al-Nofal wrote in Syria Direct. the then-unimaginable scenes it comes to loyalty. For Damas- In January, two people died The protests in Sweida and of defiance against the central cus, refusing to stand with it in Sweida during daily anti- Daraa are fuelled by the same government, including knock- carries a penalty just as severe government protests fuelled grievances. In almost exactly ing down the statue of former as that meted out to those who by demonstrators’ anger with nine years of bloodshed, the President Hafez Assad in March stand against it. And so it proved “corrupt politicians” and the Assad regime has shown no 2011. in July 2018, when the Islamic worsening economic situation. ability or inclination to improve At the time, nowhere else in State (ISIS) launched a coordi- As such, while Sweida and peoples’ lives — whether they Syria risked taking that first, nated attack on Druze towns in Daraa may have their differenc- stood with it or simply stood by rebellious step and, as a con- Sweida, killing around 258 civil- es, these days they find them- during the conflict. sequence, Daraa has endured ians, injuring 180 and kidnap- selves having much more in However, precisely because government shellings, air strikes ping women and children. It was common than they once might the regime is focused only on and worse in the years that fol- one of the single worst atrocities have imagined. securing its own power and not lowed. of the 9-year conflict. Despite all that’s come before, people’s needs, Syrians will con- Neighbouring Sweida, pre- ISIS may have carried out the Daraa is almost exactly where it tinue to rebel. Not necessarily dominantly inhabited by the attacks but guilt for the atroc- was in early 2011. From Nawa in because the regime has killed so Druze community, remained ity doesn’t stop there. “As part north-western Daraa to Busra al- many but because it continues to quiet for much of the Syr- of its campaign in the Yarmouk Sham in the south-east, recent fail regular Syrian communities. ian conflict. Its towns broadly basin, the regime, with Russia’s months have seen protests again It would be helpful for Assad refused to join their neighbours help, evacuated members of become a feature of life in at to keep in mind that it was the in Daraa in the active military ISIS to the eastern desert on the least ten towns and villages. Druze of Sweida who fuelled uprising against Damascus. border of Iraq and Syria,” wrote Violent protests erupted re- the Great Syrian Revolt against It would be helpful Sweida’s young men armed Chatham House’s Lina Khatib cently in Daraa al-Balad when a French occupation in the 1920s and organised themselves into following the attack. man kidnapped by the regime’s and the people of Daraa respon- for Assad to keep in local militias to defend their “It is from this desert that ISIS political security branch was sible for the match that lit the mind that it was the neighbourhoods and towns but fighters advanced to Sweida to found dead after having been uprising of 2011. His regime Druze of Sweida who refused conscription into the conduct the massacre. Although missing for five days. There, ignores the rising anger in the Syrian Army. ISIS attacked some regime people are calling for the fall of south at its peril. fuelled the Great Some elements of Sweida’s checkpoints in the process, the Assad regime. Syrian Revolt against Druze did take up arms against pro-regime forces largely left Demonstrations have taken Stephen Starr is the author of the regime during the war but ISIS alone as it proceeded in its place since early November “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to French occupation many were either killed in attack.” because of arbitrary arrests and the Uprising” and has lived in in the 1920s. fighting or assassinated under This event was enormously confiscation of private property Syria and Turkey since 2007. 10 February 16, 2020 News & Analysis Gulf

‘We are scared,’ former Qatari justice minister tells UK magazine

The Arab Weekly staff

London

espite the image of a “bea- con of openness” has tried to promote, there is D pervasive fear and intoler- ance in the country, a report in the Economist stated. The Economist, a British weekly magazine, quoted Najeeb Nuaimi, a former Qatari justice minister, who is under a travel ban, as saying: “We’re scared. They’ll take your passport or your property and leave you stateless if you talk.” The magazine said Qatari re- searchers who express dissent fear being dismissed. “I can’t even or- ganise a workshop,” a Qatari writer said. Missed opportunity. Former Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani attends the Gulf Cooperation Council’s 40th Summit in Riyadh, last December. (Reuters) Propaganda efforts aimed at giving Sheikh Tamim a larger-than-life image are Doha’s policies upend Qatari-Saudi talks backfiring. The Economist described politi- Mohammed Alkhereiji dulrahman al-Thani made an unan- When the crisis erupted in June with the 2022 FIFA World Cup in cal institutions as “window dress- nounced trip to Riyadh in October to 2017, the Arab Quartet issued 13 de- mind. ing.” It said parliament’s appointed meet with top Saudi officials. Sheikh mands for Qatar, including an end to Western diplomats said Qatari au- members wield little power and the London Mohammed was quoted as saying support for the Muslim Brotherhood thorities hoped the talks would lead 2003 elections have never taken that Qatar was “willing to sever its movement and the curtailing of ties to the restoration of free movement place. alks between Saudi Arabia ties with the Muslim Brotherhood.” with Iran. for its citizens within the GCC, the The policies of Qatari Emir Sheikh and Qatar aimed at ending Ending links with the Brother- Doha, however, maintained close reopening of its land border shared Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, it said, the 3-year-old diplomatic hood was among chief demands is- ties with Tehran triggering suspi- with Saudi Arabia and access to the are the subject of widespread scep- T conflict were abruptly halted sued by the Arab Quartet — Saudi cion of Qatari complicity in Iran’s airspace of the boycotting countries. ticism. without tangible progress towards Arabia, , Egypt and the Unit- attempts at destabilising the region, In 2019, despite controversy relat- “Qataris have doubts about the reconciliation. ed Arab Emirates — involved in the especially in Yemen. The Qataris ed to migrant workers’ treatment in emir’s decisions,” said the maga- The development came as no sur- dispute with Qatar. also boosted relations with the gov- Qatar, FIFA proposed expanding the zine. “They wonder why he squan- prise considering Doha’s unchanged ernment of Turkish President Recep World Cup tournament to 48 teams dered billions on foreign ventures alignment with Turkey’s Muslim Tayyip Erdogan to include the sta- from 32, which would have required and arms deals and struggles to rec- Brotherhood-friendly government Observers said the Arab tioning of 5,000 Turkish troops on neighbouring Gulf countries to oncile with Saudi Arabia, which has and Iran. Quartet is unlikely to be their territory. share hosting duties. However, with led a blockade on Qatar since 2017.” Thomson-Reuters reported that receptive to any last-minute Mohamed Al Hammadi, editor- only and being the vi- Propaganda efforts aimed at giv- talks between Doha and Riyadh, overtures by Qatar. in-chief of Alroeya newspaper, re- able options, expansion plans were ing Sheikh Tamim a larger-than-life which began last October, had col- cently noted that “Turkey’s presi- dropped. image are backfiring. “In Doha,” the lapsed. The report, which quoted six In December, ahead of the annual dent met his Iranian counterpart With billions of dollars invested in Economist wrote, “the image of the unidentified sources, attributed the GCC summit, an invitation to Qatari Hassan Rohani and Qatar’s Emir building the infrastructure needed emir is as ubiquitous as Saddam failure to a fundamental lack of com- Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al- Sheikh Tamim,” on the sidelines of for the World Cup, there is likelihood Hussein’s once was in Baghdad. mitment by Qatar. Thani was viewed with optimism in last year’s Islamic Summit in Kuala Qatar will adopt more flexible stanc- ‘Tamim the Glorious,’ reads the slo- A Gulf diplomatic source said, de- some circles, particularly among Ku- Lumpur. es as the tournament approaches. gan underneath.” spite initial expressions of willing- waiti officials who have been work- “It is claimed the trio agreed at this However, considering Doha’s The magazine criticised a recent ness to compromise, Doha “failed ing to resolve the dispute since June meeting to ‘heat up’ matters in Yem- damaged credibility over its missed Qatari law that sanctions media to capitalise on a golden opportu- 2017 when the Arab Quartet severed en by bringing Muslim Brotherhood opportunity at negotiating a way out criticism, showing that the coun- nity” that would have returned it to ties with Doha. or Al Islah factions closer to the Iran- of the crisis, observers said the Arab try’s ruler “is less tolerant of criti- the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) After the GCC summit, which backed Houthi rebel group, with the Quartet is unlikely to be receptive to cism directed at him.” fold. Sheikh Tamim did not attend, the aim of exhausting coalition forces in last-minute overtures by Qatar. It noted that “Qatar’s newspa- A November report by the Wall Riyadh-Doha talks fell apart, with the country, Hammadi wrote. pers often have the same front- Street Journal said Qatari Foreign matters returning “to square one,” Moreover, it appears that Doha Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf page stories, with near-identical Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Ab- Gulf sources said. entered the recent talks with Riyadh section editor of The Arab Weekly. headlines.” Qatar faces ’embarrassing’ lawsuit in US for terrorism financing

The Arab Weekly staff “The [Nusra] Front subjected groups. In 2009, WikiLeaks pub- Mr Schrier to horrific conditions and lished cables that showed Wash- extreme psychological and physical ington was wary of the organisation London abuse,” the complaint said. “He was because of “its suspect activities beaten and tortured on at least ten abroad and reported links with ex- atthew Schrier, an Ameri- occasions, often by teams of terror- tremists,” as well as “intent and will- can photojournalist held ists, threatened multiple times with ingness to provide financial support hostage in Syria by jihad- summary execution, and forced to to terrorist organisations willing to M ist groups, has filed a law- observe and hear the torture of other attack US persons or interests.” suit against two Qatari entities he prisoners.” Members of the ruling al-Tha- said are responsible for his 221-day ni family sit on the Qatar Islamic ordeal. Bank’s board of directors. The for- PR woes. Qatar Charity billboards in Doha. (AFP) Newsweek magazine reported Qatar Charity has been long mer captive told Newsweek that that the lawsuit, filed in January in suspected of financing Qatari royals are “neck-deep in this.” “They ran a very public social me- wantonly, recklessly or with deliber- Florida, could “deeply embarrass” extremist groups. Schrier also said QIB directly dia campaign soliciting donations ate disregard to the Nusra Front’s as- Qatar’s “monarchy which for years bankrolled Qatar Charity, which al- from all over the Middle East, not sault on Americans in Syria, includ- has sought to foster closer ties with “He was deprived of water and legedly funded al-Qaeda and Ahrar just Qatar, to finance al-Nusra Front. ing Mr Schrier.” Washington.” It also reveals Qatar’s food, held in rooms that were freez- al-Sham. And many of these social media “It’s not just about money,” Schri- use of banking and NGOs to finance ing cold or boiling hot, without light QIB told Newsweek in an email tweets and WhatsApp and YouTube er told Newsweek. “It’s about put- terrorist activities. or ventilation and denied access to that it was “aware of the lawsuit in and Facebook posts literally had Qa- ting this entire saga of my life be- Schrier is seeking damages from bathrooms for days at a time,” the Florida and denies the allegations.” tar Islamic Bank’s name and the ac- hind me and never talking about it the Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) and Qa- complaint added. Schrier claims the bank allowed count number, which was funnelling again.” tar Charity for their alleged ties to the Schrier did not cite the Doha gov- Qatari citizen Sa’d al-Ka’bi to open the money directly to al-Qaeda,” said If he wins damages from the law- financing of Jabhat al-Nusra, a former ernment directly in the lawsuit but an account in the name of his son Schrier. suit, Schrier said the money would al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, and Ahrar said he considered it to be connect- and use it to funnel money from do- “QIB knew or should have known go to other former captives of ji- al-Sham, another jihadist organisa- ed to the activities of the two outfits. nors around the world to al-Nusra. al-Nusra Front was assaulting Ameri- hadist jails and their families and to tion in Syria, which held him hostage Qatar Charity has been long In 2015, Ka’bi was sanctioned by the cans in Syria by torturing them,” the those who helped him escape from from December 2012-July 2013. suspected of financing extremist US State Department. complaint says. “QIB acted wilfully, captivity. February 16, 2020 11 News & Analysis Algeria Government tries to build bridges with protesters as Algeria’s ‘Hirak’ enters second year

Lamine Ghanmi to work with them. In the western town of Mascara, for instance, protesters were able to Tunis return to the streets to demonstrate for the first time since December 12. lgeria’s government re- In Ain Temouchent, demonstrators leased dozens of protesters rallied without backlash from po- from detention, granting lice who had halted several previous A concessions to activists marches. as the pro-democracy movement Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz moved into its second year. Djerad, a former university scholar Demonstrators went ahead with who had publicly voiced support for protests in cities across Algeria on the protesters, said the government February 14 — the 52nd consecutive aims to “(build) bridges of confi- Friday of protests. They chanted: dence with the people.” “Jaybeen al houria” (“We are bring- “The government is resolute in re- ing about freedom”). storing the confidence of the citizens The government’s release Febru- through the revival of human values ary 13 of 40 protesters detained for that were dismissed in the past, the involvement in demonstrations was consecration of the culture of hard the largest concession to their cause word, responsibility and account- since President Abdelmadjid Teb- ability and the enforcement of strict boune released 70 detainees after measures against corruption and his election December 12. mismanagement,” said Djerad. The government had already made several concessions to protest- Financial problems ers, including shelving plans to tap complicate the Algerian into shale gas reserves, scrapping government’s efforts to a tax for low-income civil servants address the social issues. and funnelling more resources to build 1 million housing units in the A year on. Demonstrators march in Algiers, February 14. (Reuters) Tebboune pledged “an extended next few years. It also cut spending hand to the Hirak (pro-democracy on infrastructure projects to allocate housing units and avoid a financial giers in reference to perceived wide- way from recovering. It is similar to movement).” more financial resources to educa- crisis, Djerad said: “It is possible to spread corruption. the recession of 1986 when recov- Algerians have taken to the streets tion and health. seek foreign loans that do not under- Djerad admitted that “Algeria has ery came only after 16 years,” said since February 22, 2019, staging However, financial problems mine the sovereignty of the coun- experienced disastrous mismanage- Algerian financial expert Abdelhak peaceful demonstrations to call for could complicate the government’s t r y.” ment of the state in recent years and Lamiri. political reform. The protests were plans to address social issues. Teb- He cited soft loans from sovereign authoritarian practices that led to “Like the recession of 1986, the triggered by former President Ab- boune had hoped to use the coun- Arab wealth funds and the African the looting and misappropriation of current economic situation is cou- delaziz Bouteflika’s attempt to seek try’s shale gas potential to increase Development Bank as potential op- the wealth of the country and the pled with the most fragile political a fifth term in office but expanded to earnings to avoid borrowing money tions. systemic destruction of its institu- environment.” include calls for an overhaul of the from abroad but that plan received Algeria’s social and economic con- tions and economy.” Analysts said Algeria needs deep country’s political regime. criticism over fears it would harm dition has been deteriorating since The country’s joblessness rate, es- reforms to transform and diversify Authorities have used force to dis- the environment. February 2019 as the government timated at 11.7% overall, is especially its economy. The country’s leaders perse the marches and sometimes Last July, Algeria’s state energy has turned its attention to curbing high among youth, reaching 28%. An are faced with the difficult task of arrested protesters, including lead- company Sonatrach announced it protests. Leading business figures even greater concern among experts peacefully ending protests so they ing organisers, to quell unrest. In was planning to tap into the coun- have raised concerns about increas- is the country’s sharp decline in for- regain stability and focus on eco- areas where protests were not large try’s largest shale gas fields. With a ing bankruptcy and unemployment. eign reserves, which plummeted nomic issues. enough to deter police action, au- projected capacity of 30 billion cubic The economic decline has fuelled from more than $190 billion in 2014 “All popular protest movements thorities thwarted demonstrations metres in the initial stage, the plan the rage of protesters, who blame to $60 billion. in the world had been repressed or altogether. would provide for the equivalent of the country’s ruling elite for wasting Algerian experts said only a big co-opted by the power holders,” However, in what appears to be 40% of Algeria’s current gas output. wealth from the country’s energy re- geopolitical crisis that causes a sharp said political writer Mohamed Ta- a shift in strategy, Tebboune’s gov- However, on February 13, Djerad sources. rise in oil prices could save the coun- har Messaoudi. “Only the Hirak in ernment has been more tolerant seemed more open to outside sourc- “Klitou leblad ya serakine” (“You try from a financial crisis. Algeria is resisting valiantly against of the protests, praising them for es to finance the budget. Asked how looted the country’s wealth, you “Algeria’s economy plunged into repression and attempts to deter the their civic action and attempting the country would finance new thieves”),” chanted protesters in Al- recession since 2014. It is a long citizens from participating.” Viewpoint In Algeria, post-Bouteflika aftershocks continue to resonate

nies — Sonatrach, Naftal and Saidal — Whether a revamped hydrocarbons Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz to the Bouteflika galaxy. have been dismissed in recent weeks. law makes foreign investment more Djerad railed against the legacy Algeria boasts more private Sonatrach, the state oil and gas attractive is anybody’s guess. of his predecessors in an attack firms willing and able to build joint Francis Ghilès monopoly, now has its eighth CEO in Understanding certain CEO unmatched in ferocity. Algerian ventures in such promising fields ten years as Toufik Hakkar replaced sackings and appointments is not deputies gasped at his words. His as food-processing and information Kamel Eddine Chikhi, who lasted less easy. Mohamed Nouas, the CEO words suggest that cleaning out of technology than foreigners realise. lgeria has re-emerged than three months in the job. Such of state-owned pharmaceuticals the Augean stables will continue but The aftershocks of the fall of as a serious actor in managerial instability does little to manufacturer Saidal, was deemed this is occurring with little or no due Bouteflika will resonate for months the Libya crisis after foster development of well-grounded to be competent and doing a good process of law. This is likely to make but two things are worth noting: the almost a decade of near policies. job but that did not stop him from its course erratic. country has re-emerged on the North absence or of policies Until recently, BP was widely being replaced by Fatouma Akacem Many businessmen and political African diplomatic scene where its of former Algerian expected to leave Algeria, not out of in February. activists have been released from knowledge of Tunisian and Libyan PresidentA Abdelaziz Bouteflika and fear of terrorist attack but because Kamel Benfriha, the new CEO of jail but many remain behind bars. affairs, second to none, is being put later de factor ruler General Ahmed the company is repositioning itself Naftal, is as surprised to be where he The courts are often bending to the to good use. Gaid Salah that were dictated more worldwide. The new hydrocarbons is as anybody. He replaced Belkacem will of their political masters but not Since 2011, Algeria has acted as the by personal whim and economic law led it to reverse what ap- Harchaoui. always. However, the future remains de facto guarantor of Tunisian secu- interests than by serious appraisal of peared to be an imminent decision. As for the oil and gas sector, Hak- foggy. rity. That role has been reaffirmed the country’s interests. Were China National Offshore Oil kar was probably appointed by the Not all is negative. Since his and its role in Libya reinforces those By vetoing Turkey’s pretension to Company and the Australian giant senior military leadership but the release, Algeria’s leading business- who wish to see a political solution acquire a military base in southern BHP Billiton to leave, however, that question of stabilising a company, man, Issad Rebrab, has relaunched to a conflict that is destabilising the Tunisia and by actively engaging would be catastrophic but, as yet, which is the largest in Africa, is not projects that had been blocked while region. That role promises to be in shuttle diplomacy between the rumour trumps reality. just a question of CEO, although he was behind bars. Luckily his fraught with danger as long as the opposing factions in Libya, Algerian Security is probably the least of having a man of vision and experi- group, Cevital, the largest private flow of foreign weapons into Libya is President the worries international oil and gas ence would help. The question one in Algeria, was in solid hands — not stopped. and the new chief-of-staff, General companies have in Algeria. Exclu- of whether he can work with the his son’s — while he was jailed. On the domestic front, the popular Said Chengriha, have shaken Algeria sion zones operate around every oil minister of energy is paramount. At Others are not as fortunate. protest movement is far from over out of its diplomatic torpor and and gas field and the frontier is very a time when oil prices are plunging, Restarting factories is not that easy, but its refusal to use violence or reaffirmed its voice in North African heavily policed. Odd attacks cannot Sonatrach faces a host of challenges, especially when foreign partners respond to provocation augurs well affairs. be ruled out but the Algerian Army both domestic and international. are involved. The leadership of for the medium term. Putting the The extent of corruption in the has done its utmost to ensure the The company appears bereft of the Forum des Chefs d’Entreprises economy on track is all the more army, not least the air force with the security of a sector that provides any long-term strategy in explora- (Algeria’s employers’ federation) is important as the price of oil has naming and shaming of senior offic- the country with 95% of its foreign tion and exports, which makes reweaving business links with Tu- dropped from $75 to $55 a barrel ers, is delegitimising the army in the income. operations of key foreign partners nisian, French, British Spanish and since the beginning of the year. eyes of millions of Algerians, many of Algerian production of oil aver- such as Total, ENI and Equinor very Italian partners. Visits to the United However, the endless score set- whom are beginning to question its aged 1.03 million barrels per day last difficult. States and Sweden are to follow. tling between vested interests in professionalism. year, its lowest since 2002. Pipeline Is it adrift? Not quite. Does it have Strictly apolitical, unlike the pre- the nomenklatura, not least the On the domestic front, the situa- gas exports to Spain and Italy de- long-term well-worked-out strate- vious leadership, which was felled army, suggests the country is in for a tion is anything but clear. The CEOs clined 11 billion cubic metres (bcm) gies for exploration and exports? No. by the political crisis last spring, its bumpy ride. of leading companies come and go in 2019 to 21.1 bcm, S&P Global Platts Do its important foreign partners new president, Sami Agli, has taken at a speed that defies any definitive Analytics Data said, partly offset by such as Total, ENI, Naturgy, Equinor his pilgrim’s staff to foreign capitals, Francis Ghilès is an associate reading of where Algeria is headed. higher liquefied natural gas exports, and Statoil know what it is thinking? reminding his peers that not all pri- fellow at the Barcelona Centre for The leaders of three major compa- which rose 2 bcm to 16.4 bcm. Maybe. vate companies in Algeria belonged International Affairs. 12 February 16, 2020 News & Analysis Lebanon Aoun’s claims of international financial support come under political scrutiny

Simon Speakman Cordall e-mail, “They are not confined to civil servants. As a matter of fact, corruption in the private sector is Tunis even more endemic. “ One means of salvation might mid Lebanon’s economic be the $11 billion in pledges made crisis, President Michel at the CEDRE conference in April Aoun reassured a nervous 2018. However, with pledges con- A public that several coun- tingent on Lebanon undertaking tries, especially France, were stand- serious reform, those funds seem ing by to aid the embattled country. distant. However, given the relatively “The French government seems fresh status of Lebanon’s govern- so far convinced that the new ment, only voted in on February Lebanese government might be an 11, as well as concerns about the in- acceptable interlocutor if it com- dependence of a government seen mits to a specific reform plan,” as being too close to the country’s Abouaoun said. “Personally, I think political class, analysts questioned this is wishful thinking at best,” how willing the international com- he added, pointing to the ties that munity might be to help Lebanon’s bound many of the new ministers beleaguered economy. to Lebanon’s political class. Tackling corruption is central to CEDRE failed to differ in sub- any discussion on Lebanon’s politi- stance from previous fundraising cal or economic future. Transpar- conferences. “None of them result- ency International ranks Lebanon ed in a sustainable change because 137th out of the 180 countries sur- the three main bleeding sources veyed. in Lebanon have been well estab- Lebanon’s system of govern- lished a while ago: deficit of the ment, by which positions and min- state-owned Electricite du Liban, Desperately seeking goodwill. Lebanese President Michel Aoun (C) at a meeting to discuss the istries are divided along party and salaries of the public sector and the financial and economic situation in the country at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, sectarian lines, has proven fertile service of the public debt. Short February 13. (AFP) breeding ground for graft, with par- of addressing these three issues, ties providing services and posi- all other plans are doomed to fail. tions in return for political support. If anything at all, CEDRE will only With the Eurobond due within political class, Hage Ali explained. “Lebanon is unlikely to enact sig- This system has undermined the increase the amount of the public weeks, lawmakers have little time “There’s a real effort to portray nificant measures to solve endemic credibility of Lebanon’s political debt,” Abouaoun said. for debate. this government as independent of corruption in the near future but class, with each party’s exploitation The goodwill of the international “At the moment there’s a lot of the political class,” Hage Ali said. this has little to do with the ideo- of its clientelist base seen as contrib- community will be critical to tack- discussion about whether to de- “However, in terms of reform, this logical makeup of the government,” utors to the crisis. The appointment ling Lebanon’s longstanding prob- fault on the bond repayment af- will really depend on the willing- Thomas Abi-Hanna, an analyst of a new government had been in- lems, with even a potential loan ter seeking the IMF advice on this ness of Lebanon’s political class. with risk consultancy Strafor, said, tended to establish a body capable from the International Monetary matter. Another ongoing debate is They need to be seen as taking ac- referring to the composition of the of undertaking wholesale reforms. Fund (IMF) — typically seen as the about joining an IMF programme. tions against corruption. This could government, which is dominated However, analysts already question lender of last resort — apparently This will require surrendering some start with ensuring the independ- by Hezbollah, Amal and their allies. its proximity to the country’s exist- up for discussion among Lebanese degree of sovereignty and I’m not ence of the judiciary, (regarded as “The issue of corruption is not ing parties and their leaders. lawmakers. sure that the Lebanese sectarian being tied to the interests of their isolated to one sect, ideology or po- Looming over all negotiations is “I think the consensus among the leaders agree on how much control political sponsors). Will they do litical party in Lebanon, given that the prospect of the $1.2 billion Eu- international community is really they’re willing to give up,” Hage Ali that? I haven’t seen any major steps politicians across the board engage robond repayment that falls due in one of let’s wait and see,” said Mo- said. that would suggest so,” Hage Ali in corrupt activity. Even if there March. hanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Car- Despite the deterioration of ser- concluded. were political will, tackling these “The multilayered root causes of negie Middle East Centre. “There’s vices and the stagnating salaries Until the scale of the impending endemic issues could take years,” corruption in Lebanon are known a great deal of caution among po- of the positions offered in return catastrophe becomes unavoidable, Abi-Hanna said. to everyone,” Elie Abouaoun, di- tential donors about committing to for political support, maintaining however, there appears to be little rector of the MENA programme at a bailout without a serious commit- the parties’ clientelist base remains indication of Lebanon’s new gov- Simon Speakman Cordall is a the US Institute for Peace, said via ment to reform.” central to the outlook of Lebanon’s ernment changing course. freelance writer. Viewpoint Diab hardly masks allies’ xenophobia on Syrian refugee crisis

son-in-law Gebran Bassil — who and — more important — financial Diab met with EU ambassa- of. It is estimated that, up to 2019, set the policy for this issue in support. dors and blatantly declared that Lebanon received more than $8.2 their many statements and ac- This false sense of entitlement “Lebanon is in urgent need for billion to support refugee and Makram Rabah tions on the matter, undermining has been a feature of cabinets support in all areas, including host community response plans, and rendering any commitment since the start of the Syrian electricity, food and raw materials something which, if properly from Diab as inconsequential. crisis. Yet this use of populism and medicine. Our country urges enhanced, could mean further he cabinet of Lebanese In an interview with the French and xenophobia is not entirely Europe to help in securing these funds for Lebanon. Prime Minister Hassan magazine Valeurs Actuelles a few the fault of the Lebanese state. items to protect social stability.” The figure is, in fact, even Diab won a vote of days before Diab and his cabinet It can partially be blamed on the Although he did not explicitly higher because this $8 billion confidence with just went to parliament, Aoun blamed international community that mention the issue of the refugees, plays an important role in jump- 63 parliamentarians Lebanon’s predicament on the condones it. Diab and the Lebanese state use starting the economy and has a voting in favour of its refugees and on conflicts in the European countries, in particu- the refugees as a weapon, a tactic tremendous trickle-down effect, Tplatform — a plan that promised region. Aoun continues to adopt lar, play along and keep endors- first adopted by Turkish Presi- something Diab and his allies some impossible feats, including the tactic of downplaying the ing the Lebanese refugee plan, or dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who refuse to publicly acknowledge. addressing the thorny matter of political elite’s role in the crisis lack thereof, refusing to confront constantly threatens to facilitate The issue of Syrian refugees, the Syrian refugees. and instead demands that the Beirut over its refusal to assume the exodus of these desperate just like the many crises facing Faced with a nose-diving econ- international community aids responsibility and acknowledge refugees to Europe. the Diab cabinet and Lebanon, is omy and an even worse political Lebanon simply because it is the Hezbollah’s involvement in the In December, Bassil, then a challenging yet surmountable crisis, Diab vowed to ensure the right thing to do. Syrian crisis. This involvement caretaker minister of Foreign one. Nevertheless, to reach this safe return of more than 1 million If this was not enough, Aoun is directly responsible for many Affairs and Emigrants, reminded goal, the Lebanese need to realise refugees to Syria, a task easier also requested that the coun- of the refugees fleeing Syria after his audience at the first Global that the refugees are in Lebanon said than done. tries responsible for the war in their homes and land were oc- Refugee Forum in Geneva that, if to stay at least for a few years and For most of his plan, Diab Syria pay reparations to Lebanon cupied by Hezbollah and other the international community did thus they should not accept their adopted the same pledges of because of the repercussions Iranian militias. not come to the immediate aid state and its so-called policymak- earlier cabinets to deal with the of refugees on the Lebanese Equally, Diab’s cabinet propos- of Lebanon, chaos and instability ers continuing to use the same refugee crisis and, likewise, he economy and infrastructure. es to formulate a plan to ensure would lead to the mass migration tactics and rhetoric which have failed to field any clear map to Coincidentally, Aoun had a the safe and immediate return of of Syrian refugees to Europe. failed time and again. achieve his goal. The main feature number in mind — $25 billion the Syrian refugees to their coun- The refugees, he hinted, would As it stands, Diab, just like Saad of Diab’s refugee plan espouses — the same amount needed for try but not necessarily in that or- bring crime and terrorism with Hariri before him, is proving that — but masks — the xenophobia Lebanon to escape its current pre- der. Diab consciously disregards them. Unfortunately, these scare the Lebanese political elite has of his allies — primarily Lebanese dicament. the fact that the Assad regime tactics seem to work with the failed to grasp that Lebanon is President Michel Aoun and his Obviously, Aoun did not mean does not want these people back, European community, which took not as important as they think his allies Iran, Russia, Qatar first because of demographic con- the easy way out and, rather than and that, until further notice, the and the Assad regime, who are siderations. Most of the refugees risk implementing an inclusive refugees are their problem and no equally responsible for the may- are Sunnis from areas the regime return plan by establishing safe xenophobic rhetoric can change Lebanese President hem and destruction of Syria. The wishes to populate with people zones, decided to keep the refu- that. Lebanese president was rather loyal to them. gees in Lebanon. Michel Aoun blamed insinuating against and target- Second, the return of the If one is to look beyond the Makram Rabah is a lecturer Lebanon’s ing Saudi Arabia and the United refugees requires billions of dol- populist rhetoric of Bassil and the at the American University of predicament on the Arab Emirates. Those countries lars, which the Assad regime is Diab cabinet, the Syrian refugees Beirut and author of “Conflict have recently been aloof towards incapable of supplying and the in- are one of the sources of hard cur- on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, refugees and conflicts Lebanon and, consequently, ternational community is equally rency entering Lebanon, some- the Maronites and Collective in the region. have withdrawn their political unwilling to provide. thing that Lebanon is in dire need Memory” (Edinburgh University February 16, 2020 13 News & Analysis Egypt Credibility gap widens between MPs and public

Special Correspondent

Cairo

aving followed the perfor- mance of the representa- tives of his constituency in H the parliament for years, Mohamed Sedki, a civil servant in his late 40s, said he decided not to vote for the same representatives again in the next election. “Sorry to say, some members of parliament are in the legislature to serve their own interests only,” Sedki said. “We pinned a lot of hope on them but they betrayed all these hopes.” Sedki’s view is an indication of the desperation of many Egyptians with parliament. The 596-member legislature was elected in 2015 at a time of extreme polarisation. Egypt was just out of the rule of a Muslim Brotherhood- affiliated president, battling terror- ism and experimenting with a new constitution that gave unprecedent- ed powers to lawmakers. The political parties were on their deathbed and most of those elected ran as independents and promised to mind the interests of voters, not people in power. There is no way to accurately as- sess the overall approval rating of parliament. However, opinions of (DPA) people such as Sedki give insights Not just raising hands. Egyptian MPs vote during a parliamentary session in Cairo on proposed constitutional amendments, last April. into how the public views their law- makers and the legislature. sions but pointed out: “You will re- that the lawmakers are in the legis- entourage of business moguls. be able to run in the elections. The Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel A’al turn to the voters in a few months’ lature not to please or defend their The military is running Egypt’s af- Salafist parties fielded candidates in expressed the public’s desperation time. Your success in deceiving constituents but to defend those in fairs from behind the scenes, as it the 2015 elections and some of them with parliament on February 11 them once does not mean that you power. had in the previous seven decades won seats. when he asked lawmakers to carry will deceive them all through.” “Most of the MPs do nothing but but the corrupt capitalism that used Public wistfulness for Mubarak’s out their supervisory duties and re- The failure of the MPs to protect defend the government instead of to be in control under Mubarak is days, because of skyrocketing com- spect their constituents. the public interest, especially in bringing it to account,” Sedki said. over. The Islamists, especially the modity prices, makes the return of tax laws and other aspects of day- This is giving rise to fears that the Muslim Brotherhood, are over, too. politicians from his era to the politi- to-day life, has been a sore point. next elections could result in radical However, with the parliament cal stage possible. The military is running Parliament has not stopped plans to political changes in Egypt. failing to maintain public support, On February 12, one of these poli- Egypt’s affairs from behind slash subsidies, raise fees the gov- Over the past ten years, Egypt has the same forces stand a good chance ticians won a by-election in one of the scenes, as it had in the ernment charges citizens for ser- changed its political skin, with the of returning to the political scene, the constituencies of Giza province previous seven decades. vices and specify budgets for edu- collapse of political Islam that had even as some political analysts rule by a landslide. cation and health. masqueraded as a viable alternative this out. MP Sami Ramadan described as “Sorry to say, some government The MPs have failed to prevent to former President Hosni Mubarak “The fact is that the election laws “normal” disapproval by constitu- officials and ministers refuse to be the muzzling of the media, defend and his one-time ruling National do not allow the members of Islam- ents of some MPs. questioned by the MPs,” Abdel A’al the right to stage peaceful assem- Democratic Party. ist parties to seek candidacy,” said “You cannot please everybody,” said. “The MPs have to blame them- blies or rescue those in jail only be- Mubarak’s downfall in 2011 political science researcher Ammar Ramadan said. “I have carried selves for this.” cause they criticised the authorities ended an important chapter in Ali Hassan. out my duty as an MP and feel He said most MPs forget their on Twitter or Facebook. Egypt’s political life, ending con- If this is true, the members of satisfied with the performance constituents on numerous occa- The view among some citizens is trol imposed by his party and the nation’s Salafist parties will not of the parliament.” Cairo-Rome arms deal could pave the way for thaw in relations

Amr Emam patrol vessels, 24 Eurofighter jets, role the Egyptian Army played in the several advanced jet trainers and a ousting of Islamist President Mu- satellite at a cost of $10.7 billion. hammad Morsi. Cairo Egyptian authorities have not Involved in a fight against a branch confirmed the deal. If finalised, the of the Islamic State in Sinai and strug- possible arms deal between agreement would add to the billions gling to protect its extended border Egypt and Italy could lead of dollars in arms deals Egypt has with neighbouring Libya, Egypt was to improved relations be- reached over the past five years with forced to seek other suppliers. A tween the two countries. France, Russia, China and other sup- “Egypt is the most powerful mili- Relations between Cairo and Rome pliers. tary in the region and it cannot de- soured after the killing of an Italian pend on one or two arms suppliers researcher in Egypt. Giulio Regeni The agreement would only,” Salem said. was studying Egypt’s professional include Egypt purchasing This is apparently also about de- unions when he disappeared Janu- veloping political and economic am- ary 25, 2016. His body was found six Italian FREMM ity between Cairo and Rome. Italian about a week later on a highway out- multipurpose frigates, 20 officials have lashed out at human side Cairo. offshore patrol vessels, 24 rights conditions in Egypt, against Since then, the two countries have Eurofighter jets, several jet the background of the Regeni case, been locked in a cycle of accusations trainers and a satellite at a several times in recent years. Rome and defensive postures. Italy ac- cost of $10.7 billion. complained of the recent arrest of an cused Egypt of hiding information Egyptian human rights researcher, about the perpetrators of the crime. Underlying the deal is Egypt’s who studies in Italy, on arrival in Testing the waters. A worker stands in front of a FREMM (AFP) Egypt denied the accusations and desire to diversify its armaments, Cairo Airport from Italy. multipurpose frigate under construction. tried to demonstrate full coopera- which marks a departure from its However, the urgency for fence- tion in investigations into Regeni’s policy of dependence on one sup- mending between the two countries Egyptian natural gas market. ment of National Accord, which killing. plier, military strategists said. seems to be far stronger than it is Egypt actively fights illegal immi- rules Tripoli. In November 2018, Italy handed “Diversifying the sources of ar- for conflict, analysts said. Italy has gration across the Mediterranean. Turkey’s interference in Libya, in- Egypt a list of security officials it ac- maments is a very important thing a vested interest in the role Egypt It has prevented its citizens from il- cluding sending Syrian mercenaries cused of direct responsibility for Re- for the Egyptian Army,” said retired is playing in the Eastern Mediterra- legally boarding boats heading to to back the Tripoli-ruling govern- geni’s death. General Nasr Salem. “This diversi- nean region, with Cairo working to Europe. It has tightened security on ment, is as worrying to Rome as it is However, a possible deal for the fication helps Egypt avoid political become an energy hub. its coasts to prevent Africans, escap- to Cairo, analysts said. purchase by Egypt of Italian mili- pressures that may come with arms In addition to the discovery of ing poverty and unrest in their coun- “There are fledgling understand- tary equipment, including warships, imports.” huge natural gas reserves off its tries, from trying to cross the Medi- ings between Egypt and Italy on Lib- frigates and fighter jets, suggested Egypt depended on the United Mediterranean coast, Egypt has es- terranean. ya,” said Nadia Helmi, a professor of a change of course for relations be- States for most of its arms for almost tablished the Eastern Mediterranean Developments in Libya also ap- political science at Beni Suef Univer- tween the two states, analysts said. three decades after the 1979 peace Gas Forum, involving Cyprus, Israel, parently spurred Italy to come sity. “Italy sent its foreign minister “It is actually a reflection of warm- treaty with Israel, having shifted Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian ter- close to Egypt, especially with Lib- to Benghazi to meet with Haftar last ing ties between the two states,” said from dependence on the Soviet Un- ritories. It struck deals to import gas yan National Army Field-Marshal December demonstrating its open- Akram Badreddine, a political sci- ion. from Israel and Cyprus, with plans Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by ness to the other side in the Libyan ence professor at Cairo University. In 2013, however, the United States to process it at its liquefaction plants Egypt, overrunning most of Lib- conflict.” The agreement would include withheld military aid and rejected and then export it to Europe. ya’s oilfields and laying siege to Egypt purchasing six Italian FREMM Egyptian requests for the purchase Italian state-owned petroleum Tripoli. Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly multipurpose frigates, 20 offshore of some arms, in protest against the company Eni is a major player in the Italy used to favour the Govern- contributor in Cairo. 14 February 16, 2020 Viewpoint Palestine Israel

Welcome to Trump’s Washington where ‘yes’ means ‘maybe’

Netanyahu has learnt not to get ahead of the volatile Ameri- can president, let alone to criti- Geoffrey Aronson cise him, and certainly to avoid giving the mercurial president reason to publicly dispute Israeli hat happens policies on the key element of when Wash- the president’s own plan. ington throws All true, that is until Wash- out the old ington put the brakes on any Palestine precipitous Israeli declaration on playbook but West Bank annexation. Trump’s Whas no idea of what to do next? advisers, including his son-in- That’s the position the Trump law, followed by Washington’s administration finds itself in ambassador in Jerusalem, after announcing its Deal of the warned Israel to keep its powder Century to resolve the dispute dry on any such announcement. between Israel and an erstwhile In quick order, Trump dashed Palestine. Netanyahu’s hope for a quick Trump’s plan savages the declaration before Israel’s March Same direction, slower pace. A 2018 file picture shows US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman (L) and rules of the game that have elections announcing the exten- Senior White House Adviser Jared Kushner during the opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem. (AFP) long guided Israeli-Palestinian sion of Israeli law and jurisdic- diplomacy. Washington, under tion over 30% of the West Bank. his direction, abandoned a hard- Friedman showed who the real won, albeit ineffective, inter- boss was when he warned Net- Trump team pressing Israel to delay national consensus in favour of anyahu that “the application of a policy based on unilateral US Israeli law to the territory which recognition of the “facts on the the plan provides to be part of Is- annexation, seeking support for plan ground” — notably the transfer rael is subject to the completion of more than 500,000 Israelis to [of] a mapping process by a joint settlements established in the Israeli-American committee. Any countries. By allowing Israel to would hurt him more than help West Bank and Jerusalem since unilateral action in advance of annex the areas immediately, him if he defied the White House June 1967, settlements whose the completion of the committee on the timing of annexation. Gregory the chances for outside sup- main strategic purpose is to pre- process endangers the plan and port would be diminished in his Speaking February 10 at a tree- vent the creation of a sovereign American recognition.” Aftandilian estimation. planting ceremony at a Jordan Palestinian state anywhere west It’s fine when Washington acts Israeli settlers reacted angrily to Valley settlement, he said: “We of the Jordan River. unilaterally but quite another the delay. The head of the Yesha will do this [annexation] with the Trump has embraced this when Israel attempts to beat fter the unveil- Council, which oversees 150 set- agreement with the Americans objective with a breathtaking Washington at its own game. ing of the Deal of tlements in the West Bank, David because what we are doing is not enthusiasm and disdain for the Without a doubt Netanyahu the Century at the Elhayani, told the Washington unilateral.” essential Palestinian demand for had good reason to believe White House in Post that not only did Kushner While this episode showed that sovereignty and independence. Washington would support an late January, which mislead Netanyahu, he “took a the Trump team can exert pres- His plan has turned the tables Israeli declaration on annexa- witnessed a love fest knife and put it in Netanyahu’s sure on Israel when it needs to, it upside down — on Jerusalem, tion but he is not the first leader betweenA US President Donald back.” has done nothing to assuage the settlements and refugees — in its to have his carefully choreo- Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Friedman, who has had long concerns of the Palestinians. attempt to chart a new course for graphed plans with Washington Binyamin Netanyahu, it seemed ties to the settler movement, got First is the obvious omission Israeli-Arab diplomacy. upended by the White House’s that the latter was going to move on board with the new Trump of Palestinian input in the overall Learning to play by new rules indecision and indiscipline. full speed ahead with annexation policy. Speaking to the right- peace plan, not to mention the bi- is always difficult but diplomacy Since a US seal of approval for of settlements in the West Bank. wing Jerusalem Post on February lateral committee that is working is particularly difficult when annexation is the raison d’etre of After all, Trump said the United 7, he acknowledged that there on details of the map of the West the new rules are not clear or the American plan, Friedman’s States would endorse Israeli sov- was some confusion following Bank. This was brought home consistent. threat to withhold recognition of ereignty over these settlements, the White House ceremony but to the Palestinians February 10 Washington’s critical diplo- any uncoordinated Israeli move including the Jordan Valley, as added that “there has not been when Netanyahu stated clearly at matic shortcomings are certainly on annexation marked a surpris- part of the overall peace plan, any substantive disagreement on the tree planting ceremony in the not restricted to the Palestinian ing escalation and an unplanned which was music to Netanyahu’s these issues.” Jordan Valley that Trump’s plan issue. The Trump team dem- threat to scuttle the effort. ears. to recognise Israeli sovereignty in onstrated it lacks the ability to For the first time during US Ambassador to Israel David these areas “does not depend on manage a successful diplomatic Trump’s presidency, and just Friedman, who attended the the agreement with the Palestin- engagement or to maintain pol- at a historic moment when US White House ceremony, said Netanyahu made the ians.” icy discipline anywhere — from recognition of Israel’s facts on Israel “does not have to wait” political calculation In addition, Kushner has ac- North Korea to Syria and Iran. the ground appeared to be at before it could extend sovereign- that it would hurt him cused the Palestinian Authority, So, within hours of the plan’s hand, Washington and Jeru- ty to the Jordan Valley and the which rejected the Trump peace White House announcement, salem find themselves in the settlements in the West Bank. He more than help him if plan, of inciting violence. He it quickly became clear that middle of a spat about — of all added that, if Israel applies Israeli he defied the White charged that Palestinian Presi- the Deal of the Century is not things — Israel’s policy towards law to those areas, “then we [the dent Mahmoud Abbas “calls for immune from the disarray and settlements. It brings back fond United States] will recognise House on the timing a day of rage in response [to the maddening lack of discipline that memories of the bad old days Israeli sovereignty” there. of annexation. peace plan] and he said that even characterises Trump’s overall ap- when Barack Obama and Netan- Netanyahu said he was excited before he saw the plan.” proach to foreign policy. yahu sparred over Washington’s by the prospect of extending Is- He explained that it was neces- This comment provoked an an- The White House announce- abortive demands for a settle- raeli sovereignty to the areas and sary to convert the “conceptual gry response from Palestine Lib- ment celebrated Washington’s ment freeze. would convene a cabinet meeting map” into a “detailed rendering” eration Organisation Secretary- historic recognition of Israel’s Washington’s demand for a very soon to endorse the annexa- so Israel could “apply its laws in a General Saeb Erekat, who said territorial appetite for the West pre-annexation joint committee tion plan. precise manner and the US could that “those who introduce plans Bank and the associated cam- to prepare maps is a smoke- However, it appeared that recognise such application.” for annexation and… the legali- paign to undermine the territo- screen. Israel has no need to Friedman and Netanyahu were In a message directed at the sation of occupation and settle- rial basis of a Palestinian state. prepare maps, they’ve been in getting ahead of the game. Jared settlers, Friedman added: “I think ments are the ones who bear full The maps presented with such the drawer — metre for metre — Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the residents of Judea and Sama- responsibility for deepening the fanfare and enthusiasm demon- for decades. An American effort, the main architect of the peace ria would want Israel to get those cycle of violence and extremism.” strated that Palestine — in Ameri- particularly by this administra- plan, did not want annexation [details] right.” Moreover, in the Trump budget can eyes at least — has become a tion, to have an adversarial dia- to proceed immediately. Un- Friedman later told a right-wing proposal for the fiscal year 2021, series of isolated bits of territory logue around maps is laughable. doubtedly, he had the support of think-tank in Jerusalem that, the US president is trying to zero in a sea dominated by Israel and Who in Trump’s White House is Trump to slow things down. while Israel, as a sovereign state, out funding for the Palestinian its settlements — a place where going to sit opposite Israel and Kushner stated in several can do what it wants, if Trump’s Authority, only dangling $25 mil- Palestinians, rather than Israeli fight over every dunam for a subsequent interviews that the “position is simply ignored, then lion within a new “Diplomatic settlers, are an encircled and Palestinian state? White House did not want Israel we are not going to be in a posi- Progress Fund” that could pos- embattled minority. Just as the US withdrawal from to annex any of these areas until tion to go forward” with the plan. sibly go to Palestinian security Israeli Prime Minister Biny- Syria is not really a withdrawal, the work of a “bilateral US-Israeli This delay on annexation put forces if “there is progress on a amin Netanyahu thought he so, too, the green light from committee” that would map out Netanyahu in a political quanda- plan for Middle East peace.” This had in his pocket Washington’s Washington to Israel for a quick specific areas of the settlements ry. He certainly wanted to extend is undoubtedly insulting to the endorsement of a quick declara- move on annexation was not re- and allow for a contiguous Pales- sovereignty in these areas ahead Palestinians. tion of annexation based on this ally green but closer to flashing tinian area was finished. Kushner of the March 2 Israeli election Hence, while the Trump team map. So, too, did US Ambassador yellow. added that the process of creating to solidify his support among is trying to slow down Israeli to Israel David Friedman, who Washington still supports an- such a detailed map could take the Israeli right wing, especially annexation plans, it is shooting has laboured with great success nexation, to be sure, and, as with a couple of months — in other the settler community, but he itself in the foot by continuing to pair US policy with Israel’s Syria, the kerfuffle over Wash- words, after the Israeli elections did not want to go against the to disparage and alienate the right-wing settlement lobby. ington’s support for annexation in early March. US president who has done him Palestinians. Netanyahu, like Russian Presi- will be sorted but it turns out Although Kushner was using a many political favours, especially dent Vladimir Putin and North that this support is conditional… technical argument to delay the after calling Trump “the greatest Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is at least until it isn’t. annexation plan, he appears to friend Israel has ever had in the in the Pardee School of Global a tireless student of Trump. He want to slow the process down White House.” Studies at Boston University and has, arguably, the most success- Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resi- to elicit political support for the In the end, Netanyahu made a former US State Department ful relationship with Trump of dent scholar at the Middle East plan from Arab and European the political calculation that it Middle East analyst. any world leader. Institute in Washington. February 16, 2020 15 Spotlight The West and Islam Trump’s invisible wall is not just for Muslims

given every month in 2017-18 to travel bans have never been States for certain groups of from Muslim and dark-skinned nationals of Iran, Libya, Soma- rooted in national security — people from certain countries. migrants. It is meant to disguise Rashmee lia, Syria and Yemen fell 72%. they’re about discriminating There are orders to reduce the the painful reality that the gains Roshan Lall In the first week of February, against people of colour. They annual quota of refugees that of US economic growth are un- Trump extended travel and are, without a doubt, rooted America is willing to take. evenly distributed, that Trump immigration restric- in anti-immigrant, white su- The administration has made it as president has only aggravated he battle to replace tions to another premacist ideologies.” practically impossible for asylum income inequality with his 2017 Donald Trump in six countries. Admittedly, the Trump claims at the US border to have tax law and that a strong safety the White House got As of administration’s overall any chance of successful resolu- net and affordable healthcare properly under way Febru- policy betrays a broader tion. Brick by brick, the impedi- remain a distant dream in the with the Democratic ary 22, hostility to any category ments Trump has placed to entry world’s richest country. Party primary elec- people of foreigner — legal, il- into the United States have had Ttion in New Hampshire, so it’s from legal or asylum-seeker the cumulative effect of an im- worth examining the state of Kyr- — seeking to enter penetrable if invisible wall. Trump’s signature campaign gyzstan, the United States but It is more consequential than The virtual wall takes promise from 2016: the wall. Myanmar, the original targets the nearly 200km of physical the United States back How’s that been going? Eritrea, — Muslims — have border wall completed by the Well, the wall is up — virtually Nigeria, been distinct and Trump administration. The vir- to a century ago, — and is taking over many more Sudan and symbolic and they tual barrier will serve as a great- when being white was aspects of American public dis- Tanzania have always been er deterrent than the 130km of key to acquiring US course than originally proposed. will no longer the foundation wall that Trump’s new budget Illegal immigration through the be able to of the virtual proposal for this fiscal year citizenship. US-Mexico border, Trump’s al- permanently border wall. says he wants to build. And, leged justification for building a migrate to the On that were Trump to be re-elected in In their 2016 book, “Framing wall, continues to fall. United States foundation November, it’s almost ir- Immigrants: News Coverage, However, the US president but are allowed have been relevant that he Public Opinion and Policy,” continues to throw up bureau- short-term laid the finish Chris Haynes, Jennifer Merolla cratic barriers even to legal travel. bricks that the full and Karthick Ramakrishnan ex- entry and immigration. The This, too, is constitute the virtual 725km plored the discourse about im- number of refugee admissions a “Muslim ban” wall. The bricks are a of bar- migration in the United States. to the United States fell to the of sorts. Except for Myanmar, steady stream of riers They said attitudes towards lowest level on record last year, where Muslims account for administrative planned immigration change when the fewer foreign students and tour- 4% of the population, Mus- decisions. by 2021. economy is faring badly or when ists were going to the United lims are more than one- There are The vir- politicians bring up the issue. States and fewer green cards quarter of the population orders to tual wall Ramakrishnan suggested the were being issued, the US State of the countries newly tar- bar entry would be politicians are the more influ- Department said. geted by Trump. Tanzania, to the the more ential. By Trump’s own, some- By some estimates, Trump’s for instance, is 30% Muslim United important what disingenuous, account, vow to bar all Muslims from and Kyrgyzstan is 86%. and the the US economy is doing very entering the United States has A pattern is emerging greater deter- well. So the focus on immigra- taken effect in the past two from Trump’s travel rent to travel tion is clearly based on a darker years in the form of varying and immigration to the United vision of foreigners as criminals, levels of travel and immigration restrictions. The States by competitors and a burden on the restrictions on an estimated target countries Muslims and American state. 7% of the world’s population. either have dark- dark-skinned The virtual wall takes the More than 135 million people in skinned people people. United States back to a century seven, mainly Muslim countries or large numbers That’s partly ago, when being white was key have been affected. of Muslims because Trump’s to acquiring US citizenship and The Migration Policy Institute, or both. As virtual wall suggests to there were barriers to immigra- a Washington think-tank, said US Senator those who live and work tion for all but Caucasians and the number of permanent visas Kamala Harris, in its boundaries a deep Western Europeans. In the 21st a Democrat and abiding sense of secu- century, though, it merely high- from Califor- rity. It is a false sense, premised lights the growing dissonance nia, recently on the assumption that the between Trump’s America and The target countries posted on American people are either the country’s founding ideals. Twitter: too stupid or too lazy to notice either have dark- “Trump’s that their problems do not arise Rashmee Roshan Lall is a skinned people or columnist for The Arab Weekly. Her blog can be found at large numbers of Emerging pattern. File picture shows protesters taking part in a demonstration against US President www.rashmee.com and she is Donald Trump’s travel ban outside a federal courthouse in Seattle. (AP) Muslims or both. on Twitter: @rashmeerl. Teenager’s attack on Islam tests France’s stance on religion

Contemptuous of millions of she told TMC television in the ing Germany. One well-known treme right, Muslim complaints compatriots though they were, only interview she has given. French commentator, Franz-Ol- about collective vilification are Mila’s remarks may have been Later, she discussed her sexu- ivier Giesbert, has asked in the inextricably linked to outrage Colin Randall no more than those of an im- ality with another follower, tell- conservative news magazine Le at the routine demonisation of mature girl wanting to sound ing her she was a lesbian. They Point whether growing intoler- their faith. tough. They assumed dispro- agreed they did not especially ance was turning France into After two years of delay, Ma- t last, the French portionate significance, igniting like Arab or black girls, prompt- “the new Pakistan.” cron is reportedly about to an- have a distraction a furious debate on freedom ing the earlier user to return and What Mila makes of endorse- nounce proposals for combating from strikes over and blasphemy soon after the call her a “dirty dyke,” a whore ments and criticism from other a “political Islam” incompatible pension reform, ugly fifth anniversary of the killing and a racist. quarters is unclear. After trying with France’s republican values clashes between of 12 people by the French- “He insulted me in the name for years to detoxify her anti-im- and for the organisation of Islam police and protesters Algerian brothers Cherif and of Allah,” Mila said. “I said I migration party National Rally, in France. Many in the country andA general discontent. Said Kouachi at the Paris offices didn’t like Islam, that it was formerly the Front National are counting on the president to The country is preoccupied by of the satirical magazine Charlie a religion of hatred.” She told and known for its anti-Islam, act in line with his repeated as- l’affaire Mila, which began as a Hebdo, which had published TMC she denied racism since anti-Semitic streaks, Marine Le sertions that there should be no crude online spat between teen- caricatures of the Prophet Mo- she was attacking a religion Pen let the mask drop, tweet- confusion between extremism agers but grew into a full-scale hammad. not an ethnic group and made ing: “This young girl is braver and worship. national debate on competing The video was widely shared, it clear she regretted only her than the whole political class in But perhaps there is no need notions: unfettered freedom of bringing Mila a torrent of abuse choice of words, not their mes- power over the past 30 years.” for French Muslims to judge the expression versus the right to and death threats, forcing police sage, though she did apologise French Justice Minister Nicole merits of the opposing Twit- worship without fear of insult. to place her under protection to those who “practise Islam in Belloubet said “insulting a ter hashtags, #JeSuisMila and As French President Em- and officials to move her to peace.” religion is an attack on freedom #JeNeSuisPasMila. manuel Macron finally inches another school. Support for her Blasphemy is not prohibited of conscience,” though she later Even without scholarly guid- towards his long-promised came from an unlikely front of in France except, and then only backtracked. In a rare comment ance, they could easily choose initiative on Islam in France, intellectuals and the far right theoretically, in Alsace and from the mainstream left, the between contrasting views from a 16-year-old schoolgirl has — while a government minister Moselle, a legacy of their previ- former presidential candidate the French Muslim Council. Its almost by accident — thrown a and the left offer mixed mes- ous attachment to neighbour- Segolene Royal said she re- president, Mohammed Mous- hefty spanner in the works of sages or silence as if unsure of fused to regard a “disrespectful saoui, said that “no matter those striving to build a society the correct response. teenager” as a paragon of the how offensive,” Mila’s remarks in which Muslims and non-Mus- Mila attended a secondary freedom of expression. could not justify death threats. lims co-exist in mutual tolerance school with a large Muslim Richard Malka, a lawyer who Another senior official, Abdallah and respect. population in Villefontaine, east After two years of acts for Charlie Hebdo, sprang to Zekri, insisted she had brought With a few scurrilous words on of Lyon. French media have delay, Macron is Mila’s defence, saying she had them upon herself, invoking the an Instagram video, Mila trashed avoided fuller identification but used “words of her age and a biblical phrase: “They who sow Islam and much about the faith her address and phone num- reportedly about to still childish passion to express the wind reap the whirlwind.” that Muslims hold dear. ber have been posted on social announce proposals the evil she thinks of a religion,” After expressing hatred for media. demonstrating her belief that Colin Randall, a journalist based religion generally and claiming The origins of l’affaire Mila, on for combating a after centuries of combat and a in London and France, was chief the Quran was full of hate, she January 18, are banal. She react- “political Islam” revolution, the French had rid reporter, executive news editor signed off with expletives a hoo- ed angrily to a boy’s unwelcome incompatible with themselves of the duty of “ob- and Paris bureau chief of the ligan possessing Islamophobic advances on Instagram. “I didn’t ligatory respect” to God. Daily Telegraph and executive thoughts might use when spray- hesitate to put him in his place France’s republican Inconveniently for intellectu- editor of the National at its ing graffiti on a wall. because it wasn’t the first time,” values. als and rabble-rousers of the ex- launch in 2008. 16 February 16, 2020 Viewpoint Turkey In Idlib, Washington is taken hostage by its own illusions

as Russia remains invited in Syria, there is no real way to challenge the legitimacy of the Assad regime. Yavuz Baydar Damascus is not a real threat to NATO or to the Arab League. The real threat remains, albeit weak- nkara’s deliberate ened, from the armed Islamist military escalation, “cause.” Yet, instead of coordi- marked by an incur- nating a decisive, joint action to sion into Idlib, which cleanse northern Syria of these is legally recognised armed Islamists, first Rojava and Syrian territory, set then Idlib have been seen as the variousA elements in motion among arena for wrestling between Wash- the major actors involved in the ington and Moscow. One can also growing conflict. add the European Union to this On one side, Moscow finds equation. itself facing the bitter lesson that Statements by US Secretary of Turkish President Recep Tayyip State Mike Pompeo, followed by a Erdogan is not as tame as Russian rapid visit to Ankara by US Envoy President Vladimir Putin had ex- to Syria James Jeffrey, make it clear pected. He finds that the inherent, that international politics is sadly historic mistrust between Turkey being overshadowed by folly. and Russia is once more con- The astonishing pro-Erdogan firmed. There is no surprise that rhetoric was based on the premise Putin feels a formidable challenge that the Turkish military presence from Erdogan in the geo-political on Syrian soil was legitimate, a ri- chess game and this may be a diculous position that has nothing tougher game from now on. to do with international law. For Putin, Turkey, as ruled by Er- The challenge Putin is facing dogan, is a significant component with regards to Erdogan has been in the Russian strategy to weaken noted here, yet the Trump admin- the Western bloc, especially istration’s shortsightedness is also NATO. However, the nature of this clearly inconceivable — except, significance makes it difficult for Geo-political chess game. Turkey’s National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar (2nd R) and Turkish perhaps, that it is a consequence of Moscow to simply sweep Ankara Army’s top commanders arrive to inspect troops at the border with Syria, in Hatay, February 3. (AP) the chaos reigning in Washington. aside as it stages the crucial steps This is exactly the playground to help Syria re-establish control of Erdogan would prefer remained its territory. regime or will he be forced to make all this against Erdogan’s strategy ing to do with demanding justice unchanged. Turkey’s mighty presi- Will the strongman of Russia sacrifices to establish a terror bal- in Syria and Libya. The more he for the crimes against humanity dent, whether one claims he is or have to choose between full-scale ance, carving Idlib in two — north compromises, the more his own committed in the Syrian civil war is not weaker these days, thrives support for the Bashar Assad and south of the M5 highway — Damascus strategy would be dam- but rather to continue a political on making maximum use of major thereby allowing Erdogan to push aged. war based on an obstinate desire divisions and battles of will on the through his will? By constantly using the refugee to continue flying the totalitarian international stage, playing one Much speaks for the former: If flow argument, Erdogan keeps flag of the Muslim Brotherhood against the other, successfully. he has drawn clear enough conclu- a frightened European Union tradition. Putin’s strategy, which is There is nothing surprising in his By constantly using sions from the latest escalation dependent on his moves and keeps built on the annihilation of jihad- by now well-known pattern. The the refugee flow of words and deeds by Erdogan, Ankara’s doors open to the West. ists on Syrian soil, will clash with amazing part is that other global Putin would have to deal with his In addition to this, by insisting Erdogan’s — sooner or later. leaders, far more powerful and able argument, Erdogan counterpart’s trademark untrust- on a permanent presence (this is The irony — and this cuts across than Erdogan, choose to fall into keeps a frightened worthiness. Here we are talking certainly Ankara’s intention for the entire Syrian quagmire since this trap, prey to their illusions. European Union about empty promises made with northern Syria) in Idlib, he would 2011 — is that the Russian strategy smiles or Erdogan, even later, hold the sword of Damocles over is identical to the one staged by the Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish dependent on his completely going against his own Assad. United States. Washington should, journalist and regular columnist moves. word. Putin would have to weigh The latter has, of course, noth- by now, understand, that as long for The Arab Weekly. Russian-Turkish relations fracture over Syria, Libya

has steadily become more forceful. the Ottoman Empire fought 11 wars. brothers in Libya.” Peskov said. “Also, perhaps first and On February 4, Russian Foreign During the Cold War, NATO member While the diplomats of both foremost, we’re talking about the Minister Sergei Lavrov called on Turkey faced Warsaw Pact countries countries attempt to smooth over fight against terrorism that the Syr- John C.K. Daly Turkey to “abide strictly” by the in the Balkans and, in the east, the relations, Erdogan seems to be ian armed forces are waging on the agreements reached by the presi- Soviet Union in the Caucasus. going out of his way to irritate his territory of their country.” dents of the two countries in Sochi For all the stress in the bilateral northern neighbour. Speaking at a Further afield, Erdogan is posi- yria’s 9-year civil war has last October in which Turkey agreed relationship however, Moscow news conference in Kiev on Febru- tioning his government as a staunch attracted a steady stream to establish a demilitarised zone and Ankara shared a joint interest: ary 3 following talks with Ukrain- defender of Muslims everywhere, of outside players, includ- in Syria’s last rebel enclave and a the diminution of US power in the ian President Volodymyr Zelensky, from denouncing the US govern- ing jihadis, the United crackdown on jihadist group Hayat Middle East. Turkey distancing Erdogan reiterated his support for ment’s Deal of the Century Mid- States, Russia and Turkey. Tahrir al-Sham. itself from NATO was a heaven-sent Ukrainian sovereignty over the dle East peace plan to criticising While the United States In return, Russia would pressure opportunity for the Russian govern- Crimea, taken over by Russia in China’s repression of its Uighur Srecently downsized its presence, the Syrian government to aban- ment, which sowed further discord 2014. population in Xinjiang. the other three remain commit- don plans for a military offensive last year when Ankara purchased Worse still in Moscow’s eyes, Er- As for Erdogan cavalierly ted to their vision of victory, with into the northern province, which and installed the Russian S-400 ad- dogan, while reviewing an honour denigrating his mutually beneficial Russia and Turkey hammering out would, in all probability, have pro- vanced antiaircraft missile system guard, proclaimed in Ukrainian — to relationship with Russia in favour a pragmatic agreement delineating duced millions more Syrians fleeing batteries, which provided NATO the delight of his hosts — “Glory of an embryonic imperialist policy, their respective zones of interest. into Turkey, already overburdened with the conundrum in that all to Ukraine.” Last, but hardly least, stretching from Syria to Libya, it Now that agreement is unravelling. with approximately 3.6 million Syr- alliance equipment is supposed to Zelensky said he had signed a mil- would seem that he has forgotten On February 3, for the first time, ian refugees. Lavrov said: “Unfor- be interoperable among members. itary-financial cooperation agree- one of Turkey’s more pithy prov- Turkish President Recep Tayyip tunately, at this stage, the Turkish Washington in a fit of pique halted ment with Erdogan stipulating that erbs, “Dostkaragunde belli olur” — Erdogan ordered direct military side could not meet some of the Turkey’s participation in its F-35 Turkey would provide Ukraine with “A friend is known on a black day.” attacks on the Syrian Army in north- commitments aimed at radically stealth fighter programme. $36 million to purchase military and One thing seems certain: With western Syria near the Turkish resolving the problem in Idlib.” Even if Putin and Erdogan recon- dual-purpose goods from Turkey. Russia having directly intervened border in response to the killing of Expanding the Russian govern- cile their interests in Syria, events For the moment, it seems that militarily in Syria since September eight Turkish soldiers in Idlib prov- ment’s complaints about Turkish in Libya have the potential to Putin will largely maintain a digni- 2015 and more recently signing a ince by shelling from Syrian govern- policies further afield he added: further harm their bilateral relation- fied silence, as Russia is deeply en- 49-year lease for Syria’s Tartus Med- ment forces in an offensive against “The second aspect connected ship. Erdogan backs the Islamist- twined with Turkey as a major trade iterranean port and agreeing to in- the war-torn country’s last rebel with risks and threats originating dominated government in Tripoli, and energy partner with enduring vest $500 million in upgrades there, stronghold, held by the jihadist ter- from the Idlib de-escalation zone supported by Western powers in the influence along Russia’s southern Erdogan and NATO are unlikely to ror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the involves moving hundreds of mili- United Nations, against the rebel border, no small concern in an era see a Russian withdrawal similar local branch of al-Qaeda. For those tants, including al-Nusra and Hayat army led by Field-Marshal Khalifa of US-led sanctions hobbling the to the United States, whatever Tur- with a sense of irony, Idlib is one Tahrir al-Sham members, to Libya Haftar and supported by Russia that Russian economy. key’s regional ambitions are. of four de-escalation zones created for taking part in escalation of fight- controls most of the country. That said, Turkish military opera- Through the fog of war only one in 2017 in Syria through the joint ing in that country.” The troops sent by Erdogan are tions in northern Syria produced a thing seems certain: as fighting in- efforts of Russia, Iran and Turkey. Idlib is only the most recent Syrian Arabs, part of the same sur- hardening of the Russian govern- tensifies the rhetoric becomes more Russian criticism of what it views dispute between Russia and Turkey. rogate proxy forces that he used ment’s support for Syrian President bellicose and strident. As Peskov as Turkish unilateral action in Idlib Earlier low points in relations to invade Kurdish northern Syria. Bashar Assad. In an unambiguous spoke, the Turkish Defence Minis- included the downing on Novem- Besides worsening relations with display of support for Syria, which try said in a statement that Turkish ber 24, 2015, of a Russian S-24 jet Russia, Erdogan’s Libyan interven- has vowed to continue fighting ter- armed forces “neutralised” another fighter that Turkey insisted strayed tion could find Turkey confronting rorist groups in Idlib and elsewhere 55 Syrian troops in Idlib. into its airspace from Syria and the France, Egypt and the United Arab notwithstanding Turkish threats, For Erdogan, surveying the deep- Through the fog of assassination on December 19, 2016, Emirates, all of which back Haftar, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov ening Syrian quagmire of his own war only one thing of the Russian Ambassador Andrei as well. stressed that the Syrian govern- making, an increasingly important Karlov in Ankara. Despite the potential risks of ment had every right to engage in question must be whether Moscow seems certain: as The Russian-Turkish rapproche- such a policy Erdogan is standing anti-terrorist operations on its own will match its hardening rhetoric fighting intensifies ment was always problematic, firm, stating: “We will not hesitate territory. with additional military assistance. the rhetoric becomes given the two countries’ centuries- to teach a deserved lesson to the “This is a matter of fulfilling long record of armed conflict. From putschist Haftar if he continues the the Sochi Accords and the obliga- John C.K. Daly is a Washington- more bellicose and the time of Tsar Peter the Great to attacks on the country’s legitimate tions that the parties assumed in based specialist on Russian and strident. the end of World War I, Russia and administration and our accordance with this document,” post-Soviet affairs. February 16, 2020 17 Viewpoint Iran Revolution Day in Iran: Nothing to celebrate!

Under the pressure of US economic sanctions, the Islamic Republic is gradually moving Ali Alfoneh towards economic bankruptcy. In particular, Iran’s oil exports are reportedly down to 10%, which s the regime in Teh- leaves a $20 billion gap in next ran is commemorat- year’s budget. ing the revolution of The regime has kept inflation 1979, which over- at 40% and regime officials con- threw the imperial gratulate themselves that there order and estab- is “no famine” in Iran. However, lishedA the Islamic Republic, one there is no guarantee that Iran can’t help wondering what there will not experience hyperinfla- is to celebrate. tion, as Venezuela has, and the Forty-one years after the regime is indeed preparing itself revolution, the Islamic Republic for such a scenario. is ideologically and, increas- This is the persistent vegeta- ingly, economically bankrupt. tive state that the regime cel- Bankruptcy, however, does not ebrated on Revolution Day. necessarily equal collapse and Even that vegetative state is perhaps it is survival, although endangered and there is no guar- in a persistent vegetative state, antee that it can be sustained. Internal struggles. Iranian President Hassan Rohani (L) delivers a speech during a rally to which the regime celebrates. Addressing crowds at Azadi commemorate the 41st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. (Reuters) Iranian Brigadier-General Hos- Square on February 11, Iranian sein Nejat, cultural deputy of President Hassan Rohani, whose the Islamic Revolutionary Guard political allies are barred from Corps (IRGC), illustrated the running in the February 21 parlia- Hardliners poised to hold sway ideological bankruptcy of the re- mentary elections, warned: “Had gime in his analysis of November the previous regime tolerated 2019 protests against the govern- free and fair national elections, ment’s removal of fuel subsidies there would be no revolution.” in next Iranian parliament that turned into riots. Revolution, Rohani empha- sised, only happened because “the gate of election was closed.” cipitate public unrest. Hence, I election when many reformist Rohani urged the people to vote: believe Khamenei wants to have deputies were excluded. One There is no guarantee “Let us not turn away from bal- all state institutions, including poll suggested turnout in Tehran that Iran will not lots and elections. We must go Gareth Smyth parliament, following a similar could be just 21%. experience to the ballots under any circum- way of thinking.” Participation is important to stance.” Khamenei offered what Iran’s leadership as evidence hyperinflation, as The “gate of election,” how- ran’s Islamic Republic amounted to an outline of his of citizens’ commitment to the Venezuela has, and ever, remains closed under the turned 41 on February 11 legacy a year ago, on the revolu- system. The state broadcasting Islamic Republic. How else can and on February 21 Iranians tion’s 40th anniversary, with a company established a 24-hour the regime is indeed one characterise the Guardian are to elect the republic’s statement titled “The Second radio station devoted to election preparing itself for Council’s systematic disqualifi- 11th parliament. The elec- Phase of the Revolution.” In coverage and targeting first-time such a scenario. cation of candidates, including tion comes as Iran faces this, he called on young people voters. supporters of Rohani’s and out- Iunprecedented US economic to lead Iran closer to the Islamic Golkar said he expected a 55- going parliamentary Speaker Ali sanctions and as Ayatollah ideal. 60% turnout in small towns and “In the course of the past 40 Larijani? Why should voters even Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme “Within Islam, 40 is often seen rural areas with a lower turnout years, the West has changed its bother to vote and who should leader, is, at 80, preparing his as the age at which a person in larger conurbations: “Away methods of overthrowing [the they vote for? To quote Rohani, legacy and planning a smooth reaches maturity, as it was with from the cities, there are more Islamic Republic],” Nejat said. what kind of choice is it if all the succession. the Prophet,” said Golkar, refer- local factors — rivalries between “The new regime change method candidates belong to the same The watchdog Guardian Coun- ring to the Prophet Mohammad tribes, families and so on — and is through social movements faction? cil has been stringent in vet- beginning his divine mission these encourage voting. The based on the poor: Illiterate Rohani’s Revolution Day ad- ting parliamentary candidates, aged 40. leadership will see an overall people, who live in the outskirts dress was transmitted live by deeming around one-third of “In this important document, turnout of 50-55% as a success.” [of major population centres] and Islamic Republic of Iran Broad- current deputies unfit for con- Ayatollah Khamenei set out the Khamenei may still authorise [whose minds] are polluted in casting, which showed endless tinuing in office. Among well- goal of transferring leadership to some reformist candidates to the cyberspace.” crowds at Azadi Square. The known figures axed is Ali Mota- a new, younger generation. We stimulate interest but the bulk The regime, which in the same sickening show of burning hari, 62, a Tehran representative have seen this happening within of exclusions will stand and words of Grand Ayatollah Ruhol- flags and chanting death to this since 2008 and son of the late the judiciary under Ebrahim the Guardian Council is widely lah Khomeini, belongs to the and that foreign government. Morteza Motahari, a close collab- Raeisi [judicial chief since March expected to engineer a field “shantytown dwellers” and not However, video footage from orator of the 1979 leader Ayatol- 2019] and we are now going to of younger principlists in next “palace dwellers,” is considering an Iranian parachutist landing lah Ruhollah Khomeini. see it with the new parliament.” year’s presidential election. the economically disadvantaged at the square during Rohani’s “Reformists” and “pragmatist” Conservative candidates are These moves towards a more as foreign agents. speech shows a very differ- supporters of Iranian President blaming the Rohani government unified political elite increase Remarkably, Nejat does not ent picture: Empty streets and Hassan Rohani have been sys- for economic woes and exhort- the challenges facing any explain why people are poor slightly higher population den- tematically excluded, ensuring ing resistance to the United renewed diplomacy aimed at and illiterate four decades after sity in front of Rohani’s podium. the new 290-member parliament States. Their motivation was easing tensions centred on Iran, the establishment of the Islamic The Iranian public knows there will be dominated by “princi- enhanced by the January 3 kill- including over its expanding Republic. Nor does he explain is not much to celebrate and so plists” who eschew Rohani’s ing of Major-General Qassem nuclear programme. Whether or what enrages the poor on the does Rohani. strategy of economic liberalisa- Soleimani in a US missile strike not US President Donald Trump internet: Video footage of the son tion and opening to the interna- in Baghdad. fails to secure re-election in of the Iran’s former ambassador Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at tional economic system. Rohani faced hostile chants November, Iran will have a more to Caracas who lights his Cuban the Arab Gulf States Institute in “Ayatollah Khamenei’s first when speaking at a rally Febru- hard-line, defiant parliament. cigar with a $100 bill. Washington. priority is a smooth succession,” ary 11 in Azidi Square in Tehran, Some deputies already call said Saeid Golkar, assistant pro- marking the revolutionary an- for Iran to leave the Nuclear fessor of political science at the niversary. Non-Proliferation Treaty, under University of Tennessee and an Several conservative lists have which the International Atomic expert on Iran’s conservatives. been prepared, one by allies of Energy Agency inspects its nu- “While the choice of a new former President Mahmoud Ah- clear facilities. Even if a Demo- leader will be made by the 88 madinejad. Another centres on crat wins in the US presidential members of the Assembly of former Tehran Mayor and twice election in November, Iran may Experts, there might well be dif- presidential candidate Moham- set fresh conditions for return- ferent views within the political mad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has ing to the 2015 nuclear agree- elite, including the [Islamic] a network of young supporters, ment, abandoned by Trump in Revolutionary Guard [Corps] particularly from his home prov- 2018, or demand greater conces- and clerics. ince of Razavi Khorasan. sions for agreeing on a successor “So there is a danger that a If hardliners are confident, treaty. drawn-out process might pre- Iran’s reformists face a long However, domestically, being haul. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, clearly in charge will leave the vice-president under Moham- principlists without domestic mad Khatami (1997-2005), asked fall guys at a time when the pub- colleagues to concentrate on lic mood is volatile in the face Being clearly in building up organisations in civil of 39% inflation and high youth society. unemployment. Time will tell if charge will leave the With limited competition, the their victory is pyrrhic. principlists without parliamentary election of Febru- ary 21 is likely to see a lower Gareth Smyth is a regular domestic fall guys at a turnout than the 62% of 2016 contributor to The Arab Weekly. time when the public and 64% of 2012. One compari- He has reported from the Middle Towards bankruptcy. An Iranian cleric chants slogans after the mood is volatile. son might be 51% in the 2004 East since 1992. killing of Major-General Qassem Soleimani, February 11. (Reuters) 18 February 16, 2020 Economy

Massive gas discovery Briefs pushes UAE closer US to extend waiver for Iraq to self-sufficiency to import Iranian

industrial facilities. energy ADNOC said the agreement called for it and DUSUP “to deploy capital, The United States has agreed to Jareer Elass technology and expertise to develop extend a waiver for Iraq to import and produce shallow gas resources Iranian energy supplies, including and to conduct exploration to assess gas, two Iraqi government officials massive natural gas further volumes and firm up devel- said. discovery on the bor- opment costs.” Washington has repeatedly ex- der of Abu Dhabi and The Jebel Ali discovery dovetails tended the exemption for Baghdad Dubai is likely to speed perfectly with the Emirates’ gas am- to use crucial Iranian energy sup- up the United Arab bitions. In November 2018, the Abu plies for its power grid, for periods Emirates’ aspirations Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council of 90 or 120 days. One of the forA attaining gas self-sufficiency and greenlighted ADNOC’s 5-year (2019- officials said the latest extension to becoming a net gas exporter. 23) growth plan and integrated gas would last 120 days. In reaching those targets, the strategy that called for $132 billion The extension was agreed be- United Arab Emirates could dis- in capital expenditures to expand cause Iraq had shown it was taking pense with piped Qatari gas supplies the company’s oil and gas produc- steps towards becoming more self- that have been helping it meet its tion facilities. reliant for its energy needs, one of electricity needs for more than a That growth plan, Abu Dhabi Moving into a new phase. A General view of the ADNOC the officials said, and less depend- decade. Crown Prince Mohammed bin headquarters (L) and Emirates Towers (R) in Abu Dhabi. (Reuters) ent on Iran, whose energy sector is The United Arab Emirates an- Zayed al-Nahyan said, included “its under harsh US sanctions. nounced that Abu Dhabi state oil gas strategy to [enable ADNOC to] crude output. The United Arab Qatari gas through the Dolphin pipe- and gas firm Abu Dhabi National become self-sufficient and a net gas Emirates consumes approximately line project since 2007. (Reuters) Oil Company (ADNOC) had discov- exporter.” The United Arab Emirates 7.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ered the Jebel Ali shallow gas field has said it intends to be gas self- of gas, requiring an estimated 30% Mubadala Investment Company is a between Abu Dhabi and Dubai. With sufficient by 2030 and have enough of its gas demand to be met by 51% stakeholder in Dolphin Energy, Dubai’s Damac estimated gas reserves of 80 trillion spare output to become a net gas imports. Dubai alone uses around the joint venture that owns and op- cubic feet (tcf), the Jebel Ali field is exporter. 1.5 bcf/d, the majority of which is erates the Dolphin pipeline carrying reports first loss in the largest global gas discovery in 15 Recent discoveries in Abu Dhabi satisfied by liquefied natural gas gas from Qatar’s North field to cus- years and thought to be the fourth- and Sharjah boosted the United (LNG) imports. tomers in the United Arab Emirates nearly a decade largest gas discovery ever. Arab Emirates’ positioning in global Much will depend on further ap- and Oman. US-based Occidental The discovery was the result of rankings of oil and gas reserves. In praisal of the Jebel Ali field to deter- Petroleum Corporation and France’s Damac Properties, Dubai’s larg- ADNOC’s first exploration efforts in November, the Emirates’ Supreme mine the full extent of the reserves Total both hold 24.5% shares in the est private real estate developer, Dubai and involved the state firm Petroleum Council announced that and how much gas can be extracted. joint venture. announced its first annual loss drilling exploration and appraisal the seven-member federation’s oil One estimate suggests that the field Qatari gas has continued to flow in nearly a decade as a property wells. That the find involves shallow reserves rose by 7 billion barrels to has the potential to satisfy the Unit- through the Dolphin pipeline to the downturn grips the Gulf city state. gas reserves is significant because 105 billion barrels and its conven- ed Arab Emirates’ gas demand for United Arab Emirates despite the The emirate, renowned for its the gas can be extracted relatively tional gas reserves increased 58 tcf 30 years. A rapid first development two-and-a-half-year diplomatic and skyscrapers including the world’s easily at low development costs. to 273 tcf. phase of the Jebel Ali gas field could economic blockade that Abu Dhabi, tallest building, Burj Khalifa, has ADNOC and Dubai Supply Author- “We are honoured to have free Dubai from its LNG imports by Riyadh and others have imposed on the most diverse economy in the ity (DUSUP) signed an agreement enabled the UAE to move from the as early as 2025. Doha. The Dolphin supply contract Gulf but its property sector has to jointly explore and develop Jebel seventh- to the sixth-largest oil and Development of Jebel Ali and is to expire in 2032 but the United been sliding. Ali’s gas resources. gas reserves in both global rank- other recent gas discoveries in Arab Emirates may well be swim- The last time Damac, which built Gas from the field “will be sup- ings,” said UAE Minister of State and Abu Dhabi and Sharjah will push ming in its own gas by then and the Trump International Golf Club plied to DUSUP to support Dubai’s ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber. the United Arab Emirates closer to already drastically reduced Qatari in Dubai, previously posted a loss economic growth ambitions and The United Arab Emirates became gas self-sufficiency and could end supplies. was in 2010 because of the global enhance its energy security,” a state- a net gas importer in 2008 as it faced Qatari piped gas supplies that it has financial crisis. ment from ADNOC said. DUSUP is growing domestic power needs at been reliant upon for more than a Jareer Elass reports from The company reported a loss responsible for delivering gas the same time it was using gas to decade. The United Arab Emirates Washington on energy issues for of $10 million for 2019 compared to fuel Dubai’s utilities and reinject into its oil fields to enhance has been receiving up to 2 bcf/d of The Arab Weekly. with a net profit of $313 million in the previous year, as revenues dropped 28.2% to $1.2 billion, a New gas discoveries promise statement said. (Agence France-Presse) to change regional landscape Libya’s blockade losses exceed Sabahat Khan feet of gas per day, around one-third Israel has begun exporting natural Weeks ago, an agreement was signed of which is imported to meet demand, gas to Egypt via a subsea pipeline from between Israel, Cyprus and Greece for $1.3 billion particularly for power generation. its Leviathan offshore gas field in the the EastMed gas pipeline project that Dubai Dubai, for which the shallow reservoir Eastern Mediterranean. The Egypt- may carry as much as 30 billion cubic Economic fallout continues from near Jebel Ali will be prioritised for Israel gas partnership involves the pur- feet of natural gas every day from off- the shutdown of Libya’s vital oil ew discoveries of gas re- development, consumes around 1.5 chase of more than 3 trillion cubic feet shore gas fields in the Eastern Mediter- fields, with losses surpassing $1.3 serves around the Middle billion cubic feet of gas a day, much of gas worth an estimated $19.5 billion ranean to Europe via Greece. billion, the national oil corporation East are changing the region- of it from Qatar, which remains under over the next 15 years by Egypt. The Israel has initiated discussions with announced. N al landscape and outlook for embargo from the Saudi-led coalition. supply rate from Leviathan will rise Egypt and India to export surplus gas The latest contest over oil assets gas pricing, supplies and the geopoliti- Recent discoveries place the United from 74 billion cubic feet per year to to India, one of the world’s largest im- in Libya started in January when cal balances those supplier-buyer link- Arab Emirates’ gas reserves as the 166 billion cubic feet per year by 2022. porters of LNG along with China. India powerful tribes loyal to eastern- ages create. world’s sixth-largest and bolster its Israel aims to export gas to Egypt from is said to have 18,000 megawatts of based forces laying siege to Tripoli A growing number of regional play- prospects for achieving self-sufficien- its Tamar offshore gas field this year as gas-based power projects lying idle as seized large export terminals and ers are emerging alongside traditional cy within a few years. well. it battles to renegotiate a standing con- choked off major pipelines. heavyweight Qatar, which has been With gas fields in Hail and Ghasha tract with Qatar — prices for LNG have the world’s most important supplier off the coast of Abu Dhabi set to start plummeted since it was last renegoti- (The Associated Press) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the production over the same time frame, Natural gas is expected to ated in 2015. international market, and Iran, which discoveries such as Jebel Ali, said to be account for the biggest China is expected to account for has the world’s second-largest proven the fourth-largest in the region and the share in the global energy close to half of growth in global LNG Lebanon to natural gas reserves. US sanctions, biggest find anywhere since 2005, po- mix in the years ahead. demand in the next five years and however, mean Tehran cannot unlock sition the country strongly to develop will soon overtake Japan as the largest request IMF their full economic potential. onshore liquefaction facilities and be- Last year, Egypt convened the natural gas importer. LNG prices have Abu Dhabi National Oil Company come a net exporter. They should also East Mediterranean Gas Forum with suffered considerably against the price technical help (ADNOC) recently announced the dis- help to cultivate gas-dependent indus- the participation of Jordan, Cyprus, of crude oil in recent years; however covery of huge gas reserves, estimated tries at home, such as petrochemicals, Greece, Italy, Israel and the Palestinian almost all of the world’s major econo- Lebanon will ask the Interna- to be 80 trillion cubic feet, between for which ADNOC is aiming to triple territories to build regional coopera- mies have ambitious targets to bolster tional Monetary Fund for technical Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The discovery output by 2025. tion and develop a common approach the share of natural gas into their en- assistance to draw up a stabili- comes after Abu Dhabi announced Recent finds could also help the to the region’s gas resources. ergy mix. sation plan for its financial and major finds last November as well, in- United Arab Emirates, a key OPEC Egypt operates gas liquefaction sta- It is ironic that the price of LNG has economic crisis, including how cluding an estimated 58 trillion cubic member and the world’s fourth-largest tions in Idku and Damietta, which been falling owing to, among other to restructure its public debt, a feet of conventional gas — taking its crude supplier, mitigate the potential form the foundation of its strategy to factors, the explosion in shale produc- government source said. total proven reserves to 273 trillion cu- effects of depressed oil prices and pro- become a gateway for the region’s nat- tion in the United States as well as un- “Lebanon is… seeking advice bic feet — and 160 trillion cubic feet of duction cuts being weighed by OPEC ural gas supplies to international mar- certain demand in a global economy from the IMF on whether to pay unconventional gas, together with the to address flailing oil demand. kets. Egypt is exporting 1 billion cubic being hampered by trade wars and the Eurobond maturity amid discovery of another 7 billion barrels of Natural gas is expected to account feet of gas to Europe every month via now a potential global epidemic in the concerns that any reprofiling of crude oil. for the biggest share in the global en- ten shipments, a number it wants to shape of coronavirus. Lebanon’s debt should be con- Sharjah National Oil Corporation ergy mix in the years ahead because it double once it restarts the Damietta Turkish naval and drilling activity in ducted in an orderly way to avoid (Snoc) and Italian energy company Eni is a more efficient and cost-effective plant. the Eastern Mediterranean as well as damaging the country’s banking announced the discovery of the Maha- alternative to more polluting and car- Europe’s demand for natural gas a controversial maritime delimitation system,” the source said, referring ni reserve, Sharjah’s first new onshore bon-intensive fuels, such as coal and stands at approximately 200 billion agreement with Libya reinvigorated to a $1.2 billion Eurobond matur- natural gas discovery in more than oil. Power generation and industrial cubic feet per day and is growing but regional rivalries, however, and serve ing on March 9. three decades. sectors will be the primary drivers of many of its leaders want to reduce de- as a reminder that the discovery of nat- The United Arab Emirates is estimat- growth in natural gas demand around pendence on Russia, which supplies ural resources in the Middle East will (Reuters) ed to consume around 10 billion cubic the world over the coming decades. around one-third of European imports. also intensify geopolitical fault lines. February 16, 2020 19 Economy Performance of Islamic banking in Morocco is below expectations

Mohamed Alaoui experts warned of shortcomings, including overlapping functions of Islamic banks in transactions that Rabat include “advance payments” in ad- dition to the high price of Islamic inancial data indicate that, banking services compared with tra- two years after being author- ditional commercial banks. ised in Morocco, Islamic banks Competing banks provide continu- F have not met the objectives of ous facilities, which made them more the government for the very competi- popular and efficient among custom- tive banking sector, leading to a new ers, in contrast to the limited incen- plan for the banks’ operation. tives and poorer services in Islamic Nabil Badr, deputy director of Bank- banks. ing Supervision at Morocco’s central To cope with the competition, Is- bank, told parliamentarians that the lamic banks added employees, whose total amount of financing for Islamic numbers have jumped from 30 at the banks was approximately $258 mil- start to 519. However, that was not lion. He said that the issuance of enough to draw customers, presum- sukuk — Islamic bonds — by the banks ably because not many Moroccans would have a role in enhancing their were familiar with Islamic financing ability to affect financial matters but mechanisms or participatory bank- to what extent depends on regula- ing, as it is locally known. tions related to the sukuk. Until last June, financing through the Islamic banks was estimated at about $620 million, an increase of Abdulsamad Issami, about 25% over the previous year. Competitive sector. A view of a branch of Assafa Bank. (Al Arab) director of Umniah Badr acknowledged that the de- Bank velopment of Islamic banks requires time, as well as greater public aware- French-inspired legislation in Mo- tries allowed Islamic banks to offer plement. ness of Islamic financial services and rocco, plus the taxes and fees that products not permitted in Morocco, He stressed the need to increase the “Customer expectations far the banks offering a better range of Islamic banks in the Gulf countries do such as tawarruq transactions, which size of the committee in charge of Is- exceed the capabilities of products. not face.” Also, traditional Moroccan consist in lending the funds needed lamic finance at the Bank Al-Maghrib, the newly emerging Islamic Despite the sector’s weak per- banks tend to provide a sophisticated for the purchase of an asset whose Morocco’s central bank, and relieve banks in the country.” formance, Badr said he remained set of services that Islamic banks can- value is equivalent to the amount bor- committee members of other duties optimistic that Islamic banking in not offer. rowed, then the customer resells the so they can focus on the sector. Morocco would eventually succeed, Mohamed Karrat, professor of asset for a profit in exchange for pay- Despite its short life and small Officials said Islamic banks’ returns pointing out that similar banks in Islamic jurisprudence of financial ing back the value of the loan. scope, the Moroccan experience in Is- in Morocco have been counterpro- countries with a long experience in Is- transactions at the Faculty of Sharia Badr insisted that Morocco’s expe- lamic finance has become a reference ductive, their activities minimal and lamic financing took decades to reap in Fez, considered that Islamic banks rience regarding the compatibility of for other countries, Badr said. Central they have not received much approv- significant revenues, “which means need to step out of their traditional Islamic banking with Islamic princi- Bank of Algeria officials have met al from Moroccans. that their development in Morocco is role and be more open to other ser- ples was ahead of other experiences with Moroccan central bank officials Islamic banking in Morocco began going to be gradual as well.” vices, such as financing educational because Morocco has benefited from to get acquainted with the regulatory with Assafa Bank and Umniah Bank “Customer expectations far exceed institutions or financing health care them and worked to avoid shortcom- and legislative framework regulating with branches in several Moroccan the capabilities of the newly emerging such as surgeries or issuing sukuk as ings. Islamic banks even though Algeria cities. They were joined by Al-Yusr Islamic banks in the country due to an alternative to conventional bonds. Karrat pointed out that the Moroc- adopted Islamic banking before Mo- Bank, the Finance and Development several considerations,” said Abdulsa- Badr pointed out that it was not can experience is characterised by its rocco. Bank and Al-Akhdar Bank, in addition mad Issami, director of Umniah Bank. possible to compare Morocco’s expe- reliance on a gradual policy to better to an Islamic bond window last year. He listed obstacles Islamic banks rience in Islamic banking to that of absorb Islamic finance because there Mohamed Alaoui is a Moroccan Since the start of the experiment, have encountered, including “the other countries. He said some coun- are aspects that require years to im- writer. Saudi and Emirati investments to develop solar power projects in Egypt

Mohamed Hammad ergy projects in Egypt by Saudi and imports solar energy converters Emirati companies should increase from Germany and solar panels from in line with Cairo’s plans to diversify China — Saudi and Emirati compa- Cairo its energy mix. nies, however, could import neces- Nashar said Gulf companies have sary components from internation- audi and Emirati investments the required high financing capa- ally approved sources. are helping create solar en- bilities, in addition to obtaining de- The investment boom in the re- ergy projects in Egypt after velopment loans from international newable energy sector in Egypt en- S Egyptian authorities estab- institutions, including the European couraged the creation of business lished a legal framework for private Bank for Reconstruction and Devel- partnerships for the Egyptian mar- investments in renewable energy. opment and the International Fi- ket. The Egyptian company Infiniti Diversifying energy mix. Workers set up solar panels at the Saudi and Emirati companies re- nance Corporation. created a joint venture with Emirati Benban plant in Aswan. (Reuters) portedly plan to invest in three new company Masdar to create Infiniti projects with a capacity of 150 mega- The Benban project Power dedicated to renewable en- The Emirati solar power company production, which currently repre- watts (MW) in addition to acquiring contributes about 1.5% of ergy projects in Egypt as a first step a 50-MW project belonging to the with the idea of later expanding to Alcazar is seeking to expand activi- sents about 10% of the country’s to- Italian company Enerray. the total electricity other African markets. ties in Egypt after it created four so- tal electricity output of about 50,000 The Egyptian government en- generated in Egypt, while By working with Infiniti, Masdar lar energy stations. The company MW annually. acted a law allowing state-owned the Aswan High Dam plans to expand in Egypt and pro- is competing for two tenders for a The challenge for Cairo lies in that Egyptian Electricity Transmission contributes about 7% and vide financial backing for the new solar farm and a wind farm in the it expects to reach, in two years’ Company, affiliated to the Ministry 2% is from wind farms. company to increase production West Nile region, in addition to its time, a level of output equivalent to of Electricity, to buy electricity pro- from 234 MW to about 1,000 MW projects in the Benban Solar Park, overall electricity output generated duced by private companies under a The Islamic Trade Finance Corpo- within five years. with a production capacity of about from renewable sources during the new tariff. Experts said the price tier ration of the Islamic Development Osama Junaidi, chairman of the 200 MW. past six years. of 8.4 cents per kilowatt should at- Bank set aside $1.1 billion in financ- Energy Committee of the Egyptian Alcazar, whose operations are Meeting that challenge requires tract investments. ing packages to invest in projects in Association of Young Businessmen, supported by the Mubadala Invest- drawing investors in the renew- The Benban Solar Park in southern Egypt, $700 million of which is ear- said the development boom that ment Company of Abu Dhabi, has able energy sector to expand their Egypt is the first project designed to marked for the energy sector with Egypt is experiencing opens invest- petitioned the Egyptian Ministry of activities, as well as continuing to attract foreign investment in renew- the rest meant to fund internal trade. ment opportunities for Gulf compa- Electricity for permission to build purchase energy generated by pri- able energy. The facility includes 32 Renewable energy projects are nies. a 500-MW wind farm with invest- vate companies at current levels, electricity production stations and considered as development projects Saudi company ACWA Power has ments of about $550 million. even with the expected production has a capacity of about 1,465 MW and have priority in obtaining fi- established solar power plants in Despite the surge in electric- increases stemming from the global and investments that exceed $2 bil- nancing internationally. Egypt with a total capacity of 120 ity production from solar energy in boom in natural gas discoveries. lion. International financing bodies MW and has plans for a new power Egypt, the sector is still at its infan- This expected boom will keep nat- The Benban project contributes require that companies producing station in Luxor in southern Egypt. cy. Cairo’s strategy calls for increas- ural gas prices at stable and attrac- about 1.5% of the total electricity electricity from solar energy obtain The company is implementing a ing electricity production from re- tive low levels and render energy generated in Egypt, while the Aswan equipment designed and manufac- $2.3 billion project in Dairut, also newable sources to about 20% of the production from renewable sources High Dam contributes about 7% and tured in accordance with strict inter- in southern Egypt, with a planned total electrical production capacity competitive. 2% is from wind farms. national standards and norms. capacity of 2,250 MW. Production is by 2022 and to about 42% by 2035. Solar energy expert Wael al-Na- While there are no factories in expected to come online during the The plan requires huge capital in- Mohamed Hammad is an Egyptian shar said investments in solar en- Egypt that meet that criteria — Egypt first quarter of 2021. flows in the next two years to double writer. 20 February 16, 2020 Society Sports Facing discrimination, Kurdish team withdraws from Turkish competition

Constanze Letsch Sefinc said the decision to with- draw from the league was not easy. “It was difficult to say goodbye to Istanbul the players and the coaches. Those were emotional moments. I did nce again, politics in Tur- not want it to come to this but we key reached the football have written countless requests to pitch. The team of the the [TFF] because of the referees’ O predominantly Kurd- mistakes and the injustices. They ish border town Cizre, Cizrespor, never even replied,” he told the withdrew from the Turkish foot- Turkish newspaper Gazete Duvar. ball league, accusing the Turkish Despite the TFF’s silence con- Football Federation of racism and cerning the racist abuse Cizrespor discrimination. faced, the club was regularly fined The club’s players and execu- and its supporters were banned tives justified their decision with from the stadium because of their unwillingness to further deal throwing plastic water bottles or with the abuse of nationalist foot- cursing. Sefinc recalled that Cizre- ball fans and partisan referees. spor was fined because the team’s “We do not have enough power supporters purportedly shouted to stand up to the lawlessness of curses from the stands during a the [Turkish Football Federation] match from which Cizrespor fans TFF and the Central Referee Com- had been already banned. mittee,” the team said in a state- Cizrespor is not the only Kurd- ment. ish team that has experienced rac- “Due to the injustices we have ist attacks and discrimination. In faced in our own stadium as well 2016, executives of the Diyarbakir- as at away games, due to the rac- based team Amedspor were beaten ist and nationalist behaviour of by a mob in Ankara after a match referees and with the decision of against Ankaragucu. the president of our club, Maruf In 2018, the TFF banned Ger- Sefinc, we will pull our team Cizre- man-Kurdish Amedspor midfield- spor out of the league.” er Deniz Naki for life, accusing Founded as an amateur team in Denouncing injustice. Maruf Sefinc, president of Cizrespor football team, speaks during a news him of “separatist and ideological 1972, Cizrespor has competed in conference. (Courtesy of Maruf Sefinc) propaganda.” Naki had called for the TFF’s Third League since 2015. people to protest Turkey’s military Sefinc, a 32-year-old business- offensive into northern Syria’s Af- man from Istanbul, has been with moured vehicles provided by secu- at least 66 Cizre residents, includ- and confronted with nationalist rin region on social media. Naki the club since then and became rity forces. Similar scenes occurred ing 11 children, were killed during slogans. “In international football, had previously been handed an its president two years ago. He during a match in Bayburt in 2017, the security operations. Human black players are being subjected 18-month suspended prison sen- said Cizrespor had been the vic- where at least four Cizrespor play- Rights Watch further documented to racism but the racism in Turkey tence for “terrorist propaganda” tim of systematic discrimination ers were wounded in physical at- that about 130 people — armed mili- has reached a very violent point.” for publicly criticising the Turkish for years: denial of penalties and tacks. tants and civilians — were “deliber- When Sefinc, along with 15 other government’s military offensive goals, unjust referee decisions and While the discrimination against ately and unjustifiably killed” while teams from across Turkey, applied against Kurdish militants in Tur- constant racist abuse from fans Turkey’s Kurdish population has trapped in basements and sur- for new facilities two years ago, key. and the TFF. A disciplinary inves- never entirely ceased, it has been rounded by Turkish security forces. Cizrespor was the only one that Following the withdrawal of Ciz- tigation has been opened against on the increase again since the During the curfew, Cizrespor was overlooked. “If you discrimi- respor, Amedspor President Metin him by the association. breakdown of a ceasefire between was unable to play in its home sta- nate and don’t gear young people Kilavuz published a letter to the the Turkish state and the Kurdis- dium and players’ salaries dried towards sports, you’ll leave them TFF, stating: “There is no longer tan Workers’ Party in 2015. up. However, the end of the secu- to drugs and terrorism. Even if you a Cizrespor towards which you Cizrespor is not the only What followed was the worst vi- rity operations did not bring relief. don’t give material support, you can direct your racist songs and Kurdish team that has olence that Turkey’s predominant- Because of the renewed crack- shouldn’t put stones in our way,” slogans and your violence. There experienced racist attacks ly Kurdish south-east had suffered down on Kurdish rights in Turkey Akpunar said. is no longer a Cizrespor against and discrimination. in two decades. Blanket curfews and the increasingly harsh stance The withdrawal from the league which you can whistle without a were imposed on several jurisdic- of the government, the team has ends an attempt to bring Turks conscience and against which you The decision followed a long list tions in the region, including Cizre. faced enmity from nationalist foot- and Kurds closer together through can write up unfair goals. We invite of racist incidents. Almost a year The trauma looms large for many ball fans and the TFF. sports. While most of the club’s those who caused [this decision] ago, when Cizrespor played in the residents. “During almost every away game 33 players were from the south- to start acting with conscience and southern town of Serik, the team The town, near the banks of the we were subjected to verbal abuse eastern province of Sirnak, where common sense again, even if they was confronted with nationalist Tigris and the borders with Iraq by the opponent’s fans,” former Cizre is located, there were players have very little of it left.” songs and physical violence from and Syria, was badly hit in the Cizrespor coach Metin Akpunar from other cities, such as Rize or Serik fans. The Cizrespor team was scale of destruction and the casu- told German news site DW. He said Istanbul, many of whom are ethnic Constanze Letsch is a contributor forced to exit the stadium in ar- alty toll. Human Rights Watch said they were treated like terrorists Turks. to The Arab Weekly in Istanbul. Women’s football league reflects change in post-al-Bashir Sudan

Reuters hadi and Eldifaa teams graced the country’s oldest sports stadium in Khartoum for the league’s opening Khartoum match. “Not all of Sudanese society ac- udan’s recently launched cepts (women’s football) but a women’s football league re- small group does and they support flects the transitional gov- us,” said Eltahadi player Nariman S ernment’s aspirations for Lino. “We will continue and do gender equality in the country and what we can until the rest of the allows female players to push for Sudanese people accept it.” wider acceptance in football and all The league includes 21 teams other sports. from across Sudan and the match was officiated by female referees. A previous attempt at an unoffi- Sudanese Prime Minister cial women’s league featured only Abdalla Hamdok has three Khartoum teams. said female participation “At the start we struggled, firstly across society is a with acceptance of the idea (of women’s football) and then with priority for his government. Free to play. Sudanese al-Difaa, in yellow, and al-Sumood women play football in Omdurman, Sudan. (AP) the fact that we couldn’t even find Under deposed Muslim Brother- a pitch to train on,” said Duria Ta- hood-affiliated President Omar al- qialdin, Eltahadi’s manager. Hamdok has said female participa- ment and we will work to provide cil, attended the opening football Bashir, who was toppled in April af- “The union gave us a space, not tion across society is a priority for the infrastructure for (it),” said Wa- match as a special guest. ter months of protests, Sudan was even really a pitch, but we cleaned his government, citing the promi- laa Elboushi, the minister of youth “Our dream is to move for- governed using a strict interpreta- it up and made it into one. We nent role of women in the protests and sport in the transitional cabi- ward. We want to participate in tion of sharia and largely neglected named it the graveyard because that brought down al-Bashir. net. the (women’s) World Cup, and we women’s participation in sports. anyone who came to play us there “There is now the political will Aisha Musa, one of two female want to raise Sudan’s name up But both male and female fans would lose.” to make women’s sports one of the members of Sudan’s 11-person joint high,” said Huda Ali, a goalkeeper cheered in the stands as the Elta- Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla pillars of the country’s develop- military-civilian Sovereignty Coun- for Eltahadi. February 16, 2020 21 Society

Global leaders address health, well-being, energy at Abu Dhabi think-tank event

Caline Malek Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Fourth Industrial Revolution is “It’s a huge country compared to transforming society, although ob- the UAE,” Hamdan said. “Every stacles remain. Abu Dhabi single GCC country has its own “You can’t combine different rules and regulations.” data sets between government and rom the future of health, fi- For women globally, the status the private sector in many coun- nance and energy to wom- quo needs to be revamped, said tries,” said Taavi Kotka, founder of en’s empowerment, well- Kerry Kennedy, president of Rob- Proud Engineers in Estonia. “It’s as F being and food, more than ert F. Kennedy Human Rights. “It’s simple as that. China and Sweden 1,500 international and regional not working because there is an in- are very similar but Germany says leaders discussed their changing stitutional proclivity to put men on it’s a big privacy concern, which Transformative move. A general view of the MBC building at world in Abu Dhabi. the board and as CEOs and we have is totally wrong. It’s like asking Media City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 5, 2018. (AP) The two-day event, organised by to stop that,” she explained. someone to build a car but you US economic think-tank the Milk- Norway set a goal 15 years ago to can’t use the wheels.” en Institute, included private and have its public boards include at least 40% women. Today, that fig- public action-oriented meetings The two-day event, and solutions-focused conversa- ure is 42%. MBC media group organised by US economic tions. “This is because, once they put “Gulf countries moved on with women on the board, they saw think-tank the Milken education at such a fast pace that how great it was so it’s about the Institute, included private moves to Riyadh as is really interesting for society,” mandate,” Kennedy said. “It’s not and public action- said Baria Alamuddin, editor-in- going to work by just letting the oriented meetings. chief of Media Services Syndicate, market do it itself because it’s not during a talk titled “How to Boost working for women’s empower- Officials from Masdar in Abu Saudi Arabia seeks the Local Economy? Just Add ment.” Dhabi spoke of the development Women.” Experts spoke of the food revo- of renewables, with a total of 5 “This also allowed women’s lution fuelled by shifting consum- gigawatts of installed power and participation in the economy to er preferences, emerging nutrition projects in 30 countries. “There’s to ‘reinvent’ itself a huge opportunity within the sec- [develop] faster, although it still science, geopolitical changes and needs a lot because it’s about health and environmental crises. tor,” said Niall Hannigan, chief fi- Mohammed Alkhereiji ally gained a larger audience than 18-20% region-wide, differing “We can tap into a lot of tools and nancial officer at Masdar, during a the Doha-based network. between states. But it’s incred- technologies that are coming on- panel discussion titled “The New MBC is considered close to deci- ible, even ministers in the UAE are line,” said Matthew Crisp, presi- Energy Order: A Shift Towards Re- London sion-makers in Riyadh. When Saudi women today.” dent and CEO of Benson Hill. newables.” Arabia’s rapprochement with Iraq She spoke of an urgent need for “What we are seeing as well is audi-owned MBC Group, the began several years ago, MBC es- women in the workforce to be pro- that investors are looking for a Middle East region’s largest tablished MBC Iraq, a variety chan- vided with childcare. “Women as Participants debated how stable transparent framework, multimedia conglomerate, is nel specifically for the Iraqi market. heads of state will also lead to less the Fourth Industrial underpinning the wider GCC mar- S set to move its base of opera- As a result of Turkey’s frosty conflicts and wars, which we have Revolution is ket. You have the ingredients that tions from Dubai to a new complex relations with Gulf Cooperation too much of nowadays, starting transforming society, will continue to fuel the growth in Riyadh. Council countries, the MBC Group with the US,” she added. although obstacles and we see that continuing, along MBC Group (Middle East Broad- pulled all Turkish-produced soap Lamees Hamdan, former curator remain. with the emergence of megapro- casting Centre) signed an agree- operas from its airwaves in March of the UAE Pavilion at the Venice jects that create opportunities for ment with Saudi Culture Minister 2018, neutralising part of Ankara’s Biennale, mentioned the need for “This was inaccessible 10 years individual developments and the Prince Badr bin Farhan that will see soft power. more support for female entrepre- ago to companies outside of three development of private corporate MBC shift its headquarters to Ri- neurs in the region, adding that multinational organisations. The offtakes.” yadh as a hub for its 24-hour news she was only able to access a loan cost curve around technologies, High-ranking public figures channel Al Arabiya and its breaking “MBC Group will become for her business after the govern- such as artificial intelligence, ma- from throughout the Middle East news channel Al-Hadath. — in gradual stages, over ment helped. chine learning, the cloud and data and Africa were joined by current A planned Media City in Ri- the coming five years — a “If you’re going to leave it to the analytics, have collapsed and, for and former US government offi- yadh will host cultural, media and cornerstone in Riyadh’s private sector, I don’t think they’re the first time, they’re becoming ac- cials, along with CEOs, educators, technology businesses, as well as new creative zone for art, going to make changes,” she said. cessible to such companies.” health-care experts and influenc- China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba, media and “Having women in positions of The United Arab Emirates re- ers in the arts and culture. Saudi satellite channel Al Ekhbari- entertainment,” said MBC decision-making is very important cently jumped ten spots in the Experts included spiritual guru ya reported. CEO Marc Antoine but everything changed with digi- Global Food Security Index be- Deepak Chopra, CEO of the Chopra Abu Dhabi’s National newspa- d’Halluin. tal and social media and there’s cause of what UAE Minister of Institute; and Paul Ryan, former per said MBC CEO Marc Antoine more democracy in launching a State for Food Security Mariam speaker of the US House of Repre- d’Halluin told employees in a com- The announcement of the Media company no matter the gender. It’s Almheiri called political will. sentatives, as well as Prince Turki pany circular: “While we always City in Riyadh led to speculation a great time for people with ideas “It is there, along with partner- Al Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, try to reinvent ourselves, antici- that it would be in competition who don’t necessarily have the ships and passion,” she said. “All chairman of the board at the King pate key trends, identify the ‘Next with Dubai’s highly successful Me- contacts.” are vital for food security. We’re Faisal Centre for Research and Is- Big Thing’ and never sleep on our dia City, the region’s leading media She spoke of the ease of do- going through a paradigm shift lamic Studies. laurels… it’s only logical for MBC hub. Associated Press correspond- ing business and scaling up in the with how we eat and how we grow Group to be an integral part of the ent Abdullah al-Shehri said the United States, where a uniform food.” Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly amazing ‘New Saudi’.” issue is not black and white, how- system exists, as opposed to the Participants debated how the contributor in Abu Dhabi. “MBC Group will become — in ever. gradual stages, over the com- “It is not necessarily competi- ing five years — a cornerstone in tion but more of a complementary Riyadh’s new creative zone for relationship or a form of synergy,” art, media and entertainment,” Shehri said, adding that some net- d’Halluin said. works will remain in the United The “new Saudi” d’Halluin re- Arab Emirates. That includes Sky ferred to includes the cultural News Arabia, a joint venture be- shift the country is undergoing tween UK-based Sky and the Abu through the Vision 2030 reform Dhabi Media Investment Corpora- programme, which is designed to tion. reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence Shehri, who has been reporting on its energy sector, diversify its on Saudi Arabia since 1978, said Ri- economy and improve the quality yadh’s Media City will change the of life for all Saudis. media landscape in the kingdom. Vision 2030-related initiatives “It’s not just about office space. include smart cities, resorts on the With MBC relocating to Saudi Ara- Red Sea coast and Riyadh’s Media bia, the journalistic freedom that City. has become part of their culture MBC Group has been described will also be transported here,” he as the Middle East’s equivalent said. “It is my understanding that of AT&T’s WarnerMedia, home of this project comes with a larger CNN, or Rupert Murdoch’s News threshold in terms of journalistic Corporation. MBC Group today freedom and it is in preparation for boasts 18 satellite channels send- hosting non-Saudi media outlets ing out news, films, music and va- and organisations. riety programming. “Initially you are going to see Saudi Arabia introduced its first MBC and probably networks origi- channel, MBC 1, in London in 1991 nating from Egypt and Lebanon and in 2002 moved to Dubai’s Me- and any media organ with Saudi dia City. capital,” Shehri added. During the 2003 US-led invasion Media City will be in the Diplo- of Iraq, MBC began 24-hour news matic Quarter of Riyadh, in an area channel Al Arabiya to report on the of 60,000 sq. metres. The MBC Solutions-focused discussions. Managing Director of Cleo Capital Sarah Kunst (L), Managing Director war and serve as a counter-narra- Group declined to comment for of Thiel Capital LLC Jack Selby (C) and Co-Founder and Managing Partner, CRE Venture Capital Pule tive to Qatar’s Al Jazeera. It eventu- this report. Taukobong. (Milken Institute) 22 February 16, 2020 Culture Tripoli artisans continue to polish a 150-year-old woodcraft tradition

Samar Kadi

Beirut

ohammad al-Masri in- herited a carpentry workshop and the pro- M fession from his father 20 years ago and has continued the well-established legacy of producing classic furniture until he enrolled in a programme for modernising and reinvigorating the woodcraft industry in Tripoli, Lebanon. Masri’s furniture is now featured among Minjara Editions, a brand of modern furnishings produced by Tripoli’s wood artisans in collabo- ration with Lebanese designers as part of the EU-funded Private Sec- tor Development Programme. “For a long time, we were limited to producing classic and tradition- al designs that looked almost the same,” Masri said at an exhibition showcasing the first Minjara col- lection in Beirut. “Under the pro- gramme we were able to change such traditional mentality, meet young designers and use modern equipment and means of produc- tion.” “We learned a lot. For instance, what I enjoyed the most while working on the designs was em- A ray of hope. Minjara’s custom-made furniture on display. (Minjara) bedding metals, marble and fabric in my work with wood, something I’ve never done before. We have ac- has been facing a lot of challenges. materials where carpenters and they can benefit from. It is basically a very easy collaboration with the quired a more modern vision and The EU decided to provide its sup- designers can check samples of dif- complementary to theirs,” Schmitt craftsmen in Tripoli, especially know-how to adapt to the market port to an important productive ferent materials which they can noted in terms of finishing and quality. demands,” Masri said. sector which needed it and Tripo- use in their creations like different A recent exhibition at a tradition- It wasn’t that difficult for them to The $16.3 million programme, li’s wood carving and wood furni- kinds of wood, plastic, glass, stone, al Beiruti house displayed products implement and understand our de- begun in 2016 and implemented ture was selected,” Schmitt said. metal, et cetera,” Schmitt said. of collaboration between more signs.” by Expertise France, aimed at sup- “One of the challenges was to than 20 artisans and designers un- Designer Sahar Bizri said she porting struggling Lebanese crafts. reconnect Tripoli with the current The exhibition at a der the brand name Minjara. Items “would definitely repeat” the ex- While Tripoli’s wood carving and trend. With the creativity mainly included a trolley, tables, chairs, perience of collaborating with Trip- furniture sector has a legacy dat- in Beirut, the challenge was how traditional Beiruti house stools, benches, mirrors, a rocking oli’s wood craftsmen. ing back 150 years as traditional art to connect the creative centre in displayed products of chair and a wood carpet. “We were both excited and nerv- and a main source of livelihood, it the capital city with the production collaboration between Architect and furniture designer ous at the same time because we declined during the civil war (1975- centre Tripoli,” he added. more than 20 artisans Ahmad Bazazo worked with Masri were working with people that 90) and economic recession forced Along with bringing together and designers on a set of two stools and a low we’ve never met before but it artisans and producers to reduce or Lebanese designers and wood arti- under the brand name table with a backgammon board turned out to be a wonderful col- stop their activities. sans from Tripoli, a physical facil- Minjara. dubbed “Jeu de Base.” The set’s laboration where we had many The development programme ity was established at the Rachid elements were revisited in an art things in common,” Bizri said. sought to support the wood and Karami International Fair in Tripoli The space has a shared workshop deco static, giving them a modern The landmark show was taken furniture sector in Tripoli in view in an old building designed by Bra- equipped with 25 modern car- look. to Beirut from Paris, where it was of its local socio-economic effects, zilian architect Oscar Niemeyer, pentry machines that carpenters “Backgammon is a favourite pas- displayed in early September at the competence and its impressive where designers and manufactur- can use. “The shared workshop, time played by old and young alike. the residence of the Lebanese am- potential, explained Julien Schmitt ers meet to develop and showcase however, doesn’t substitute for It is something which is found in bassador. Minjara collections will of Expertise France. their creations. the workshops of the carpenters. the street, in homes and in cafes be permanently exhibited at the “We know for a fact that, since 10 “It is mainly a platform of ser- It has modern equipment that the and transcends social and econom- showroom in Tripoli and are avail- or 15 years, this sector specifically vices that comprises a library of carpenters don’t have and which ic boundaries,” Bazazo said. “It was able online (www.minjara.com). Moroccan artist’s exhibition depicts his life’s experiences

question because when one re- acting with since our childhood. Saad Guerraoui members a beginning, he under- “All these components teach you stands later that he forgot another arts. I think the most important Casablanca beginning.” thing that you can learn in arts is Baala never specialised in any to learn how to observe and value olourful paintings and artistic form. He went from draw- your entourage.” sculptures by Moroccan ing to painting, using collages, Baala sees with a keen eye what artist Mo Baala in his solo sculpture and graffiti. we would like to hide from him. C exhibition “Beginnings” “Baala’s paintings are amazing. He touches everything, of course. depicting his life experiences are He seems to be mixing the colours He hears unknown languages ​​and on display at Galerie d’art L’Atelier quite well besides the drawn char- sounds unheard of by traditional 21 in Casablanca. acters that take you to a different musicians and exhilarates the aro- At “Beginnings,” which runs universe,” said Yassine, a 44-year- mas of saffron spices and pepper- through March 16, Baala’s recent old engineer. “The most captivat- mint. works showcase an array of tal- ing painting is the one that depicts He also creates installations ents with roots in the traditional his life story in English writing.” hosting his musical performances arts and crafts of Morocco, Africa Baala’s sculptures are no coinci- and explores the photographic and elsewhere. His passions for dence because of the abundance medium, street art and action reading, cinema, music and phi- of limestone in Taroudant where painting. losophy fuel his creative universe. he grew up. Recycling, textiles, music and Essential encounters and the in- “We have some of Morocco’s best lyricism have a primordial place ternet also played a crucial role. limestone craftsmen in Taroudant. in his creations. He paints on all I grew up among some of them the supports that come to hand, and enjoyed watching them carve whether they are sewing patterns Mo Baala sees with a keen the limestone,” Baala said. or pieces of cardboard. eye what we would like to The self-taught artist has a sixth In May 2018, Baala had a solo hide from him. He touches sense that crowns all the others exhibition titled “Be Your Heart” A different universe. A painting on display at Mo Baala’s solo everything, of course. but he deflects the image. in Marrakech. The show was at exhibition “Beginnings.” (Saad Guerraoui) “A self-taught artist is just a con- the crossroads between poetry “The exhibition is inspired by notation,” he said. “To teach your- and the visual arts where Baala the simple question that people self arts is impossible because we took viewers on a poetic jour- he created. old and there he discovered the keep asking me: When did you enter in a collaboration with our ney and unveiled his inner world Born in 1986 in Casablanca, the world of the souks, the profusion start arts?” Baala said. “I always friends, family, architecture, the through the expressiveness of the Marrakech-based artist moved to of materials and colours of which find it difficult to answer their components we have been inter- forms and dreamlike characters Taroudant when he was 5 years he used as a source of creativity. February 16, 2020 23 Culture Rare Short Film Festival brings together promising Arab talents in Alexandria

Hassan Abdel Zaher won the Silver Mask in the catego- ry. Egyptian entry “My Naughty Cairo Grandpa” won the Golden Mask in the Short Documentary Film Cat- he sixth Alexandria Short egory. Film Festival brought to- Short films from the United Arab gether promising regional Emirates, Iraq, Algeria and other T film-makers with 65 en- Arab countries also competed. tries in various categories, turning Hypatia, a Hellenistic Neopla- the event into a fierce contest and tonist philosopher, astronomer learning experience for directors and mathematician, who lived in and cinema-makers. Alexandria, then part of the East- The festival aims to draw atten- ern Roman Empire, was the sym- tion to the importance of short bol of the festival. films, which are not common in Some entries participated out- the Arab region but this is the only side the main contest of the festi- cinema event in Egypt dedicated val, which included workshops, solely to short films. The number discussions and forums involving of films in this year’s late-January cinema specialists from various edition was almost double the pre- countries, who exchanged views vious one. and expertise on film techniques “This proves that the festival is and methods for securing funding. moving on the right track,” said Workshops focused on the dif- Marwa Abu Eish, a member of the ferent stages of making short festival jury. “It is gaining success- documentaries and the selection es year after year.” of relevant topics. “These activities make the fes- tival, especially interesting and Egyptian entry “My unique,” said Egyptian film critic Naughty Grandpa” won the Nader Adli. “They are tailored to Golden Mask in the Short the needs of those participating in Documentary Film i t .” Category. The Alexandria Short Film Festi- val strives to gain publicity and as Most entries received no finan- much popularity as major events cial support or sponsorship from such as the Cairo International official cultural institutions. This Film Festival and El Gouna Film On the right track. Egyptian actress Salwa Mohamed Ali (C) receives a certificate of recognition gives the festival a personal aura, Festival. The latter is gaining inter- during the opening of the Alexandria Short Film Festival. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) which was enhanced by the fact national reputation and attracting that most of those submitting en- some of the best international cin- tries were young film-makers. ema talents. films to the fact that most of the self by watching other people from tic violence and parents’ abuse of Six films from Egypt, two from A series of provincial film festi- films were relevant to what hap- the balcony of his flat. their children. It is a 27-minute Saudi Arabia, seven from Leba- vals take place in different Egyp- pens in real life. “The topics of the Short films are cinema produc- work that took Basily eight months non, two from the Palestinian ter- tian cities, including a festival in films are not fictional but copies of tions that tell a story in a con- to make. ritories, four from Tunisia and one the Suez Canal city of Ismailia. real life,” he said. densed manner. The length of the “The festival is a very rich expe- from Syria competed for the top The Alexandria Short Film Fes- Some of the short films focus on films ranged between 6-30 min- rience for me,” Basily said. “It is a awards. tival is sponsored by the Depart- crafts that are dying in the Arab utes. very simple event but one that is A joint Tunisian-Libyan produc- ment of Culture in Alexandria and region. One film told the story of Budding Egyptian cinema di- full of lessons for young film-mak- tion, “Prisoner and Jailer,” which is free to the public. It drew an un- a female bodybuilder who defies rector Antonius Basily produced a ers like me.” tells the story of two controversial precedented number of people to widespread social disapproval of film about relations between a boy men from Libya, won the Golden screenings this year. that type of sport for women. An- and his father. Hassan Abdel Zaher is a Mask in the Short Feature Film Adli attributed the keenness on other told the story of a lonely man Called “Once There Was a Boy,” Cairo-based contributor to Category. Lebanese film “Manara” the part of viewers to watch the who discovers the world and him- the film advocates against domes- The Arab Weekly. Syrian artist Sana Atassi paints the 24 faces of Eve

Nidal Koshha pressions of anxiety, waiting, sad- that idea.” ness, joy, boredom and entertain- Most of the exhibition paintings ment. They show profound human were in medium and large sizes, Damascus figures in various poses and with some of which were as large as a different expressions. They are ref- mural. The various sizes take ex- yrian plastic artist Sana erences to the various stages in the hibition visitors to different spaces Atassi is a graduate of the artist’s career and personal life. and depths. Cinematic Sciences and Arts “The exhibition is not an expres- Some paintings must have had S Programme offered by the sion of multiple women,” Atassi a great effect on visitors because General Organisation for Cinema said. “There are not 24 women in they stopped to examine them in Damascus. She specialised in ad- the exhibition, as it might seem for a long time. They must have vertising and works in animation. at first, but only one woman in 24 sensed a different artistic form that She is featured in two exhibitions situations. That woman is me. touched their sensitivity in a sig- in Damascus and Beirut. Her first “What I presented in the exhibi- nificant way. solo exhibition, which took her tion is a set of different human sit- “When I paint, I feel like I am a year to put together, displayed uations that I lived through, sweet spending energy that lives in me a comprehensive sample of her and bitter, the choices I made and and looking for some way to get work. Atassi is one of the new faces that marked my life. In turn, I out,” Atassi said. “The shapes and on the Syrian art scene and she has turned those marks into colours the colours are this energy. I try to distinguished herself with a special and shapes in these paintings.” convey on the canvas my feelings sensitivity, specifically in dealing Atassi said she works with a mir- and my thoughts in my daily life. with the topic of women. ror and tries to capture her feelings Because of the difficult circum- The exhibition opened January and thoughts. “It can be said that stances that we are all experienc- 14 at Dar Al-Assad for Culture and the paintings represent 24 faces of ing these days, I go through a lot of Arts in Damascus. Twenty-four the same person that capture fleet- emotional experiences.” paintings focusing on femininity ing moments of my life,” she said. “In light of the great and violent were on display. “They are simply the product of my upheavals of our era that are ravag- life with its pains, dreams and feel- ing us intellectually and morally, ings.” I find that these factors combined Syrian plastic artist Sana Atassi Atassi said she relies on acrylic nourish my desire to paint more and has a penchant for subtle col- Smooth balance. A painting by Syrian plastic artist Sana Atassi. (Al Arab) and more, as I’m able to frame “I wish I had spaces larger ours and sometimes resorts to these emotions in different paint- than an exhibition wall. black and white. Colour was obvi- ings,” she said. “Sometimes I feel Painting is revealing what’s ously a special formal aspect of the mono-colour techniques in paint- delving into quiet and deep worlds. that the white empty space of the inside you, and sometimes exhibition. ing nor collage or other techniques “I try to express each specific canvas is not sufficient for what I what’s inside me requires “I love working with acrylic,” she that we see used that take the idea that has a deep human mean- want to express and I want to say something bigger than a wall.” said. “I believe that it can express painting to strange horizons that I ing that I experienced without re- a lot. a beautiful artistic atmosphere and feel will confuse the recipient and sorting to multiple colours,” Atassi “I wish I had spaces larger than great horizons. It makes my job constitute an obstacle to the clear said. “I lean towards hues of black an exhibition wall. Painting is re- Atassi chose to illustrate the in- technically simpler. I relied on sim- understanding of the idea.” and white and this is what you no- vealing what’s inside you and ner worlds of women by focusing ple colours because I do not tend to In her paintings, Atassi creates a tice in my paintings, a reduction of sometimes what’s inside me re- on female faces as they react to complicate things. I prefer simplic- smooth and calm balance through colours favouring these two col- quires something bigger than a life’s joys and worries. With an ob- ity in the formation and creation of harmony and fluidity of forms and ours only. For me, colour is what wall.” vious feminine touch, her paintings the idea. colours. She is not looking to daz- explains or presents the idea and illustrate inner dramas through ex- “I do not, however, support zle as much as she is interested in I use it according to the essence of Nidal Koshha is a Syrian writer. 24 February 16, 2020 Mosaic

Agenda

Dubai: Through April 4

Organised by Dubai Culture and Arts Authority, the tenth Live Our Heritage Festival is based on the theme “An Eye on Emirati Heritage.” The event includes traditional crafts and national folk songs, a heritage workshop and other entertain- ing activities.

Beirut: February 18-March 14

Al Bustan International Festival of Music and the Performing Arts is a musical celebration that takes place at various venues in Beirut and promotes music from all over the world. The festival includes orchestral concerts, choral music, opera and dance performances.

Dubai: February 26-March 9

The Dubai Food Festival is a gastronomic celebration and a chance for visitors to explore Members of the Tunisian Symphonic Orchestra perform at the Opera Theatre in Tunis. (Tunisian Ministry of Culture) the city through food from street fare to fine-dining experi- ences. The festival celebrates cuisine from around the world.

Classical music attracting Hurghada, Egypt: March 2-9

Egypt Sensual Festival 2020 offers dancing, workshops and wider audiences in Tunisia performances from artists who will teach and dance with visi- tors. The event features pool Roua Khlifi popular acclaim. Music and Opera Pole Director parties, beach parties, boat Hichem Amari stressed the musical, parties, workshops, shows and Tunis cultural and educational role of the music performances. symphonic orchestra. long queue of music lovers “One of the concerts we played gathered outside the Opera this year was dedicated to baroque El Kef: Theatre in Tunis waiting music. People are familiar with the March 14-21 impatiently for the doors genre but don’t know it is baroque. A Sicca Jazz, an annual music fes- to open. Inside, the theatre plunged The orchestra’s programme is de- into silence before musicians of signed to help reinforce musical ed- tival in El Kef, in north-western the Tunisian Symphonic Orchestra ucation,” Amari said. Tunisia, brings musicians from started playing, enchanting the au- He said the orchestra seeks to ap- all over the world to perform dience in a 2-hour concert that fea- peal to the audience by combining and interact. This year’s pro- tured classical music and renditions various genres, including popular gramme includes indoor and of modern pieces. contemporary compositions. street concerts. During the past few years, con- “An orchestra does not exist with- certs of the Tunisian Symphonic out its audience, which it needs to Orchestra have become much-an- get closer to, but this should not low- Marrakech: ticipated events, attracting audi- er the quality of the shows,” Amari March 19-22 ences of all ages. Founded in 1969, said. “We don’t aim to sell concerts the orchestra boasts a rich history, but we want to gain an audience that Part of the performance of the Tunisian Symphonic Orchestra at the The second Beat Hotel Mar- having featured renowned Tunisian will remain faithful. That is why we Opera Theatre in Tunis. (Tunisian Ministry of Culture) rakech will take place in the musicians and performed on inter- also try to incorporate masterpieces foothills of the Atlas Mountains. national stages. of film soundtracks.” The festival features interna- Today, the national orchestra has Violinist Rim Belhedi said the au- of classical music. This affected the instruments, which makes it diffi- tional artists and DJs in addition been restructured and integrated dience has been growing larger as type of the audience in a positive cult to play certain symphonies but, to global cuisine and well-being into the Music and Opera Pole, a Tunisians have shown more interest w a y.” when it comes to and Tuni- activities. The event will take newly founded department that in- in learning instruments. An Academy for Symphonic Mu- sian genres, we have high-level mu- place at Fellah Hotel. cludes the Tunisian Choir and the “Since its foundation, the Tuni- sic, under the department of Opera sicians,” Amari said. Tunisian Music Orchestra. sian Symphonic Orchestra has a and Music, was founded in 2019 to Belhedi also noted the orchestra’s The Tunisian Symphonic Or- loyal audience that has increased offer professional training for bud- shortage of trainers and woodwind Cairo: chestra has been treating Tunisian notably in recent years. One reason ding musicians and to involve them musicians. March 20-April 10 audiences to rich and diverse pro- for that is the establishment of more in concerts. grammes twice a month, featuring music schools and because more “The academy seeks to train mu- Downtown Contemporary Arts international musicians, includ- families are encouraging their chil- sicians of all ages to become mem- During the past few years, Festival is an international ing renowned Venezuelan violinist dren to learn instruments,” Belhedi bers of the orchestra by organis- concerts of the Tunisian multidisciplinary contemporary Alexis Cardenas and his quartet. said. ing classes, concerts and involving Symphonic Orchestra event that includes local, re- The group also presented sym- “This is a new thing and, as a re- them in the orchestra’s shows. The became much-anticipated gional and international music, phonic renditions of film sound- sult, more families have a tradition academy had its first show last year, events. theatre, dance, visual arts and tracks that gained both critical and of taking their children to concerts which was also open to different films by artists from Egypt, the disciplines, including dance and “We don’t have teachers. When Arab world and beyond. The theatre along with classical music,” musicians take on the role of teach- festival takes place in various Amari said. er, it does not leave them much time venues in Cairo. Academy student Meriem Jeddou, for practising,” she said. “I think we 19, stressed the importance of aca- should re-examine and reconsider Tunis: demic learning for young musicians. the educational system, which does April 2-12 “It helped me grow as a violinist. It not allow children to explore their familiarised me with teamwork and musical talents.” The 15th Jazz a Carthage, an gave me the chance to meet incred- Amari said he hopes to attract annual music festival, brings ibly nice and talented musicians. Be- more musicians and instruments to together renowned interna- ing part of an orchestra is not as easy enrich the orchestra with more con- tional and local musicians for as it seems to be,” Jeddou said. certs planned for the rest of the year. concerts, gatherings and street She added: “I think classical mu- “I will feel I would accomplish my performances. Concerts will sic is pretty popular in Tunisia. In job as a director the day we manage take place in Gammarth, Tunis fact, most of our concerts are sold to have musicians who are perma- and Sidi Bou Said. out. More and more people in Tuni- nent members and teachers to train We welcome submissions of sia are getting familiarised with the young musicians of Tunisia. This is calendar items related to magic of classical music, especially important for the survival of the or- cultural events of interest to young people.” chestra in terms of quality and sus- travellers in the Middle East The Tunisian Symphonic Orches- tainability,” Amari said. and North Africa. tra, however, lacks woodwind musi- cians. Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel Please send tips to: A Tunisian violin player performs at the Opera Theatre in Tunis. “One of the challenges that the and Culture contributor to [email protected] (Tunisian Ministry of Culture) orchestra faces is the lack of wind The Arab Weekly.