National Education Growth Plan 2030
Bay of Plenty – Waiariki and Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū
May 2019 The National Education Growth Plan is a new way of thinking about and co-ordinating the Ministry of Education’s National Education response to school-aged population growth across New Zealand. Growth Plan to 2030 As communities change, so too do the schooling needs of their tamariki and rangatahi. We have developed a National Education Growth Plan which identifies what we know about the anticipated location and patterns of growth in school-aged children between now and 2030, and identified what the Signalling a longer term view provides direction to the wider Government may need to consider to meet this growth. community, including other government agencies, local government, and infrastructure and service providers. This helps Population growth is placing pressure on our school network in to support their long-term planning and investment and provides specific areas of the country. These high growth areas are all increased confidence to the sector that we are anticipating and unique and are experiencing growth in different ways. In some planning for the challenges of a growing population. areas, we are seeing redevelopment and intensification of We will monitor the plans annually and review as required to existing urban areas, while in other areas entire new ensure that we are continuing to provide accurate, reliable and communities are being established. up-to date information and data to inform the right investment decisions into the future. Each growth area, or “catchment”, requires a specific and targeted response. This Plan compiles these responses Investment in our infrastructure has long-term effects and will across the decade to 2030 and provides the basis for decision- shape how well infrastructure functions for future generations, making on investment spend in high growth areas. including delivering educational outcomes desired by the community. We expect to see better value for the investment spend over This National Education Growth Plan shows how sufficient the longer term as we articulate a clearer picture of demand capacity in the school network will be delivered in the right place and response. With a longer term view, we can assess at the right time. whether there are potential investment gaps or affordability issues beyond the 10-year horizon. National Education Growth Plan New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Contents
o NEGP Framework o NEGP Summary o Bay of Plenty – Waiariki o Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū o Disclaimers o Key to Icons National Education Growth Plan New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
The National Education Growth Plan (NEGP) is a new way of thinking about and co-ordinating the Ministry of Education’s response to population growth across New Zealand. The National Education Growth Plan will ensure that sufficient capacity in the school network is delivered as the right type, in the right place, at the A new approach is needed to right time. ensure that the educational needs are met for every A Framework For Planning: Three Broad Profiles of Growth child in New Zealand.
» There are different types of population growth in different areas of New Zealand. Growth in an area can be a result of net migration (people moving into the region) or natural growth from births. By 2030, students will » Characteristics of the area influence the response to growth and, in some cases, there is the ability for expansion and new exceed the number of development. In other areas, increasing capacity may require redevelopment or strategic solutions across a school or groups student places by 100,000 of schools. in high growth areas. » We have identified 20 growth catchment areas within Auckland and 19 across the rest of New Zealand. For each catchment we have categorised them into one of three different profiles of growth: Blueprint for Growth, Complex Growth, Steady Growing. We have an opportunity to These are the three profile definitions: modernise and expand our network to support education now and for decades to come.
Between 2017 and 2030 we have forecast that an additional This is where local government planning 60,000 student places will be needed in Auckland. 12,000 of includes intensive housing development these have been funded through to Budget 18. Map Key: HIGH and expansion into outer urban areas in response to, or causing, a large influx of Predicted MEDIUM people to move into a particular area. Historically, we have funded places through the annual growth in These are opportunities to master plan school age education infrastructure collaboratively Budget process. Seeking funding annually reduces the ability STABLE across agencies to integrate in new to plan ahead and make strategic or innovative changes to children by Territorial communities. the network. Flexibility will enable us to be responsive to DECLINE growth. Authority
Common solution framework across the full network Additional factors influencing solution decisions
Different types of growth require different responses in terms of school network solutions. We have identified a set of responses There are a range of factors influencing the network solution. For example, in some cases additional classrooms can not be and pre-determined triggers for when responses will be implemented. added to existing schools because there is no physical space available. The likelihood of these factors being present vary across the different growth profiles. We have illustrated the prevalence of some common factors. » Redirect students to under-utilised » Merger, relocation, or school type change schools through zoning solution: e.g. new e.g. primary to composite, from single sex zone or shrink zone, managing out-of- to co-ed, English medium to bilingual. zone enrolments. » Considered if changing the network will Enrolment » Zoning solution always first step Network redirect students to other schools with zones considered when schools are at risk of restructure student places. Additional Parental choice Demand to Availability and Constraints on exceeding student places. learners in the influencing expand acquisition of existing site catchment utilisation provision type appropriate land sites capacity
» Build new classrooms in existing » Acquire land and build new school - schools to meet capacity, temporary or from start to finish takes six to ten Blueprint for growth permanent. years. » Considered after zoning options » Considered if the network is Complex Growth Roll growth exhausted and schools still projected to Establish projected to exceed capacity within funding be over-utilised. new schools six years. Steady Growing National Education Growth Plan Summary of the growth catchments
This is where local government planning includes intensive housing development and expansion into outer urban areas in response to, or causing, a large influx of people to move into a particular area. These are opportunities to master plan education infrastructure collaboratively across agencies to integrate in new communities.
National Growth Plans (excluding Auckland) Potential New School Student places New Schools Enrolment Redevelopments Expansions Schemes Low High Expected Total Total Total Total
To 2030 30,590 48,040 40,000 31 10 38 7
We have identified Auckland Growth Plans 39 high growth catchments Potential New across New Zealand Schools Student places New Schools Enrolment Redevelopments Across the catchments of schools, Expansions Schemes we have identified the type of growth that is the primary driver. Low High Expected Total Total Total Total Blueprints for Growth = 18 catchments with the most schools and the highest growth
To 2030 17,255 63,866 60,000 30 21 103 2 Complex Growth = 11 catchments within the next biggest areas of growth with redevelopment of existing schools to support growth
Note: The above numbers and forecast schooling infrastructure are correct as of November 2018 ; however are likely to fluctuate or Steady Growing = 10 areas with change over longer periods change as growth patterns emerge and develop over time. that will require targeted interventions and responses BAY OF PLENTY – WAIARIKI OtumoetaiOtumoetai NewNew Zealand Zealand Education Education Growth Growth Plan Plan 2020 to 2030- 2030
• We will continue to collaborate with our liveable communities partners to Director’s message: What have we done so far? understand the uptake of future residential growth in the Otumoetai Tauranga City is one of the fastest growing urban areas • Enrolment schemes are in place at all of the schools in this catchment, catchment. in the country. This is an exciting time for everyone who apart from the kura and two primary schools. We are exploring • We will also explore the opportunity for a comprehensive review of has a part to play in planning for this growth. enrolment schemes with schools as a tool to manage growth. enrolment scheme boundaries prior to opening the relocated school, to We are proud of the strong Kāhui Ako we have in the • Te Wharekura o Mauao (Y7-13) opened in 2012, with Stage 2 in 2015. ensure efficient utilisation of existing infrastructure. Otumoetai area and the leadership they are showing, especially in delivering learning support. Our Otumoetai • We have approved an increase of 120 students in the maximum roll at Beyond 2030 community tells us that high quality learning Bethlehem College in 2018 to cater for students from Rotorua. Beyond 2030, growth in the school-age population of Otumoetai will continue environments, local options for schooling, and strong • Allocated roll growth funding for 15 classrooms at primary level. but at a slower rate. We expect there will be a need for additional capacity at community ties are all important to them. • Funded $47 million to redevelop Otumoetai College. existing primary and secondary schools within the catchment. The timing and We are also proud to partner with local Councils, NZTA and the DHB to location of this additional capacity will be informed by ongoing monitoring and develop livable communities. We are collaborating with our partners to ensure the master planning currently underway. new and existing communities are focused on improving wellbeing for Planning for short-term growth (3 years) everyone within them. Māori medium We’re planning now to accommodate growth in the short-term, including: I am very pleased to present the following plan for growth for Otumoetai out to In the Otumoetai catchment, there are six kōhanga reo, one full primary kura, • Planning for an additional 520 student places by 2021; 2030. This growth plan complements the other local growth plans for Tauranga and one wharekura. As at July 2017, the kura had a combined immersion roll and Papamoa. We’re committed to ensuring that the educational needs of • Assessing a vacant Ministry site to assess suitability for schooling, and of 229 tauira, while there are also 154 tauira enrolled in Māori medium at the every child in New Zealand are met, and this plan shows how we will do that. the potential relocation (and expansion) of a nearby school onto this site; three rumaki classes in local contributing schools. About 58 tauira from within Ia manuia, • Acquiring sites for a primary and secondary site in Omokoroa to ensure the Otumoetai catchment also travel outside the catchment to attend Māori immersion education. The Otumoetai catchment provides a clear pathway for Ezra Schuster that we have land available in the future should additional provision be required. The timing of any new school will be informed by ongoing tauira from rumaki to Te Wharekura o Mauao. monitoring of rolls and capacity, and a review of existing enrolment Otumoetai’s growth story While there is no formal Māori medium network strategy in place, we plan to scheme boundaries. develop a Tauranga-wide Māori medium strategy to establish the demand and The Otumoetai catchment is characterised by the older established suburbs of • Considering an opportunity to support Māori medium pathways by preference for delivering education in the Māori medium. western Tauranga, new development in the Bethlehem area that is now almost providing specialist technology space at the wharekura. Ngāi Te Rangi and Ngāti Ranginui have been engaging with the Kāhui Ako complete, and the northern corridor that extends beyond the City boundary over the past decade. They have developed learning hubs and mentoring towards Omokoroa. • Working with schools to consider a master planning capacity to which each school can be re-developed. programmes for rangatahi in both literacy and numeracy. They also have a Local schools in established areas have been under increasing pressure as the successful track record of assisting Māori students to achieve NCEA L2 and demographics of these neighbourhoods change to include more families with By 2021, we anticipate capacity will need to be increased to accommodate beyond. These two iwi work across Tauranga Moana as a collective, which 2 school-age children. an additional 120-290 students across the network . Monitoring school rolls also includes Ngāti Pukenga. and utilisation are crucial tools we are using to trigger responses to this Council is planning for new development in Omokoroa to accommodate a growth. quadrupling of the population to 10,000 by 20431. Learning Support The remainder of the catchment is expected to increase from 36,000 in 2018 to The Otumoetai Kāhui Ako is leading the way in delivering positive learning 57,000 by 2043. We know that there will be an increasingly ageing population, Planning for medium-term growth (3-10 years) support outcomes. A strong collaborative ethic within the Kāhui Ako has however the number of young people will grow, including Māori. enabled better facilitation and sharing of data, identification of trends and • We are planning now to accommodate a further 330-1,000 students by management responses, practice changes, and the development of a The Otumoetai network is nearly at capacity. Both the primary and secondary 20303. By implementing the responses we are working on now, and register that captures one plan for each child through their education networks are expected to experience increased pressure in 2019 and growth is timely delivery of new capacity where it is needed, we expect that we pathway. expected to continue. Pressure on the secondary network will continue to can accommodate this growth adequately. New schools in Omokoroa Brookfield Primary is the only school in the catchment that hosts a satellite mount as primary students move into secondary. are anticipated to be required towards the latter part of the decade, unit of Tauranga Special School. There are school-managed learning which will accommodate anticipated growth on the Omokoroa peninsula. Most urban schools are on small sites with limited opportunities for expansion. support spaces at several schools, and any new schools will be built with This challenge underpins our strategic plan for the Otumoetai catchment. provision for learning support space. The Board will then decide whether this will be a satellite or Board-managed space.
1 Tauranga City Population and household projection review 2017, NIDEA 2,3 SNZ Population Projections 2017 release, v2, 5-17yr olds (High and Medium scenarios) Otumoetai New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
This growth plan covers the Otumoetai and Omokoroa area of Tauranga City in the Bay of Plenty - Waiariki education region. In the Otumoetai catchment there are 16 schools including: 15 state schools and a state integrated school; 7 contributing, 5 full primary, an intermediate, a composite, and 2 secondary schools. As at July 2018, this catchment had a combined school roll of 8,363 students, including 409 Māori Medium students and 56 ORS students.
What’s influencing the Growth Plan
Demographic changes Here’s what's already underway that’s giving us a » Local schools in established areas have been under head start to meet growth in the region increasing pressure as the demographics of these neighbourhoods change to include more families with » Enrolment schemes are in place at all of the school-age children. schools in this catchment, apart from the kura Current network will reach full capacity and two primary schools. We are exploring enrolment schemes with schools. » The Otumoetai network is under pressure from roll growth. Both the primary and secondary networks are expected to reach capacity in 2019 and growth is expected to continue. » Te Wharekura o Mauao (Y7-13) opened in Pressure on the secondary network will continue to mount as 2012, with Stage 2 in 2015. primary students move into secondary. Existing site constraints
» Most urban schools are on small sites with limited » Funded $47 million to redevelop Otumoetai opportunities for expansion. This challenge underpins our College. strategic plan for this catchment.
Growth Plan to 2030
2019 2022 2030
375 student 175 student places Potential relocation/expansion Potential new primary school Potential new secondary places of primary school (Omokoroa) Stage 1 school (Omokoroa), 500 student places 1,000 student places
Acquisition of land 120-290 additional students in Further 330-1,000 in Omokoroa catchment students in catchment
» Enrolment schemes are in place at all of the schools in this » Collaborate with Tauranga City and our liveable communities catchment, apart from the kura and two primary schools. We are partners to understand the uptake of future residential growth » Considering an opportunity to support Māori medium exploring enrolment schemes or amendments with schools. and provide a proactive response to growth pathways by providing specialist technology space at Te » We will also explore the opportunity for a comprehensive review » Assessing a vacant Ministry site to assess suitability for Enrolment Wharekura o Mauao. of enrolment scheme boundaries prior to opening the relocated Network schooling, and the potential relocation (and expansion) of an zones » While there is no formal Māori Medium network strategy school, to ensure efficient utilisation of existing infrastructure. solutions existing school onto the site. in place, we plan to develop a Tauranga-wide Māori Medium strategy to establish the demand and preference for delivering education in the Māori medium. Expanding » Most urban schools are on small sites with limited » Acquiring land in Omokoroa to ensure that we have land Provision Type » Any new schools will be built with provision for learning opportunities for expansion. This challenge underpins our available in the future should additional provision be support space. The Board will then decide whether this strategic plan for this catchment. required. will be a satellite or Board-managed space. » Fifteen roll growth classrooms have recently been funded. We » The timing of any new school will be informed by ongoing Roll growth are planning now to accommodate the increase in population Establish New monitoring of rolls and capacity, and a review of existing funding through additional teaching space provision. Schools enrolment scheme boundaries. Papamoa: Blueprint for Growth New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Director’s message: What have we done so far?
Tauranga City has been one of the fastest growing • Enrolment schemes are in place at all of the schools in this catchment, apart • Working with schools to look at master planning capacity. urban areas in the country for decades. Nowhere is this from the kura. Therefore, there is limited opportunity for non-property • Consider whether new primary provision could include Y7-8 level to enable more evident than in Papamoa where the population responses to accommodate future growth. better utilisation of the network in the interim. has exploded in recent years. Successfully • A new Y1-6 primary and Y7-13 secondary school were both opened in 2011, accommodating more people has a cost, but also at the same time as we reduced year levels at a full primary. In 2018, we Beyond 2030 exciting potential. We want to champion the began the decapitation of the last full primary school in the network to address opportunities that this growth presents and help to build Beyond 2030, growth in Papamoa will be concentrated in the Te Tumu area the pressure for space for Y1-6 students. a great city in which to live, work and play. as the existing urban area fills up. We expect to acquire land for a further two • In recent years, there has also been investment in the redevelopment of three primary and one secondary school in the catchment beyond 2030. The timing Our Papamoa community has told us that this is of the primary schools in the area, as a result of ageing infrastructure and of this will depend on how fast development unfolds. important to them, as is being able to access local schools, the outdoors weather-tight issues. lifestyle and enjoy a strong community spirit. As a region, we are planning now so that we have enough space in our existing schools as well as providing Planning for short-term growth (3 years) more space where it is needed. This growth plan focuses on Papamoa and Māori medium By 2021, if our growth projections materialise, we expect there will be an complements the other local growth plans for Tauranga and Otumoetai. In the Papamoa catchment, there is one kōhanga reo, one full primary kura, additional 1,000 students in the local school network. We plan to meet this I am very pleased to present the following plan for growth for Papamoa out to and one composite kura. As at July 2017, the kura had a combined immersion demand in a number of ways: 2030. We’re committed to delivering accessible and equitable education for all roll of 220 tauira. The composite kura has been operating from a temporary our tamariki, and this plan shows how we will do that. • $4 million to deliver the final building stage of Golden Sands Primary, adding location since 2009 and acquisition for a permanent site (possibly outside of at least another 150 student places, and $21 million to establish a new primary this catchment) is underway. About 26 tauira from within the Papamoa Ia manuia, school opening in 2021 (at the earliest) for at least 650 students. catchment also travel outside the catchment to attend Māori immersion Ezra Schuster education. The pathway for rumaki students to progress to Māori medium • Temporary primary accommodation is required in the immediate term to secondary is to attend Te Wharekura o Mauao in Bethlehem. This wharekura accommodate growth prior to the opening of the new primary school. draws tamariki from across Tauranga Moana. Papamoa’s growth story • Planning for the final building stages of Papamoa College to a maximum roll of We are currently in discussions with a provider about the establishment of a 2,000 is underway. In the last 20 years, Tauranga has grown by nearly 50,000 people. Tauranga puna reo and bilingual wharekura in this catchment. 1 City is identified as a High Growth Urban Area , and Council has secured $158 As well as the above, we will continue to: million in MBIE’s Housing Infrastructure Fund to invest in new water and There is no Māori medium network strategy for this area and the development wastewater infrastructure across the city. This infrastructure will accelerate • Collaborate with Tauranga City and other MOU partners to understand the of kura and mixed medium schools has been ad hoc. As a result, we are development of 35,000 dwellings across Tauranga City. uptake of future residential growth and provide a proactive response to growth; initiating a Māori medium strategy for Tauranga Moana. In Papamoa, eight Special Housing Areas have been approved since 2016, fast- • Monitor how school rolls are tracking compared to capacity. Ngā Pōtiki-ā-Tamapahore has been engaging with rangatahi and mokopuna tracking about 2,750 dwellings. Amongst the existing residential area, there are of the Pāpāmoa region for quite some time. They are proactive across the also smaller pockets of undeveloped land which are rapidly being turned into Planning for medium-term growth (3-10 years) catchment and lead various educational programmes, support primary housing. This places pressure on the existing local schools. Further to the east, We are planning now to accommodate a further 485 - 1,080 students by 20302. students in Literacy and Numeracy, and senior secondary students achieve Te Tumu is a greenfields area anticipated to open from 2021 which will see We already have plans underway to manage this growth. NCEA L2. Ngā Pōtiki have built a strong partnership with Kura, Kāhui Ako and another 15,000 people living in Papamoa East. This will require significant businesses throughout Pāpāmoa. • A site acquisition process is underway as we look for another primary school investment in additional schooling provision to accommodate the anticipated site in the east of the catchment. school age population. Learning Support Both the primary and secondary network reached capacity in 2017 and this Papamoa College is the only school in the catchment that hosts a satellite of growth is expected to continue. Temporary classrooms have been provided at Tauranga Special School having a roll of 18. There are school-managed Papamoa College while permanent capacity is delivered. Pressure on the learning support spaces at several primary schools. All new schools will be secondary network will continue to mount as primary students move into built with provision for learning support space with the Board deciding whether secondary. this will be a satellite or Board-managed space.
1 National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity, an instrument issued under Section 52(2) of the Resource Management Act 1991 2 SNZ Population Projections 2017 release, v2, 5-17yr olds Papamoa: Blueprint for Growth New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
This growth plan covers the Papamoa suburb of Tauranga City in the Bay of Plenty - Waiariki education region. In the Papamoa catchment, there are 7 state schools including: 4 contributing schools, a full primary school, a composite school, and a secondary school. As at July 2018, this catchment had a combined school roll of 4,022 students, including 216 Māori Medium students and 28 ORS students.
What’s influencing the Growth Plan
Large scale residential developments » In Papamoa, eight Special Housing Areas have been approved Here’s what's already underway that’s giving us a since 2016, fast-tracking about 2,750 dwellings. Amongst the head start to meet growth in the region existing residential area, there are also smaller pockets of undeveloped land which are rapidly being turned into housing. » Enrolment schemes are in place at all of the This places pressure on the existing local schools. schools in this catchment, apart from the kura. Therefore, there is limited opportunity for non- Population explosion property responses to accommodate future » Further to the east, Te Tumu is a greenfields area growth. anticipated to open from 2021 which will see another 15,000 people living in Papamoa East. This will require significant » A new Y1-6 primary and Y7-13 secondary investment in additional schooling provision to accommodate school were both opened in 2011, at the the anticipated school age population. same time as a full primary changed to a contributing primary. Current network at full capacity » In recent years, there has also been » Both the primary and secondary network reached capacity in investment in the redevelopment of three of 2017 and this growth is expected to continue. Temporary the primary schools in the area, as a result of classrooms have been provided at the College while permanent ageing infrastructure and weather-tight issues. capacity is delivered. Pressure on the secondary network will continue to mount as primary students move into secondary.
Growth Plan to 2030
2019 2022 2030 225 student Papamoa College New primary school Potential new places Stages 3 & 4 Potential new (Te Okuroa Drive) primary school 500 student places secondary A further 485- Stage 4 400 student places (Papamoa East #2) (Papamoa 1,080 students Golden Sands Additional primary 650 student places Additional 1,000 learners in East) in the network primary site acquired the local school network Master We expect to acquire land for a further two primary and one secondary school in the Te Te Tumu development planning for Tumu area beyond 2030. The timing of this will depend on how fast development unfolds. schools begins 15,000 people » In the Papamoa catchment, there is one kōhanga reo, one full primary kura, and one » All schools in Papamoa are currently » There is limited opportunity for non-property responses composite kura. The composite kura has been operating from a temporary location since 2009 zoned. to accommodate future growth. and acquisition for a permanent site (possibly outside of this catchment) is currently underway. » The new school in Te Okuroa Drive will » Consider whether new primary provision could include have an enrolment zone and nearby » There is no Māori Medium network strategy for this area and the development of kura and Enrolment Y7-8 level to enable better utilisation of the network in school zones will need re-configuring to mixed medium schools has been ad hoc. We are initiating a Māori Medium strategy for zones Network the interim. best manage the student population. restructure Tauranga Moana. Expanding » All new schools will be built with provision for learning support space with the Board deciding Provision whether this will be a satellite or Board-managed space. Type » 2019 - Final building stage of Golden Sands Primary » Temporary primary accommodation is to add another 150 student places. required in the immediate term to » Planning for the final building stages of Papamoa » A site acquisition process is underway as we look for another site in the east of the accommodate growth prior to the College is underway. catchment. Establish Roll growth opening of the new primary school. » 2021 (at the earliest) - Te Okuroa Drive primary opens Availability of » We anticipate the land acquisition process for up to additional two primary sites and one New funding for 400 students. appropriate land secondary site will need to be initiated prior to 2030 for opening post-2030. Schools sites Tauranga: Blueprint for Growth New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Director’s message: Planning for medium-term growth (3-10 years) What have we done so far? Tauranga is growing and the established urban areas of In the medium term, we anticipate an additional 1,000-2,000 school-aged the city are filling up fast as demographics change and Eleven of the 15 state schools in this catchment have enrolment schemes in children will need to be accommodated in the Tauranga catchment by infill housing increases. While this is an exciting time for place, with an additional scheme commencing in 2019. At this stage, there is 2030. With the addition of a new primary and secondary school in the Tauranga, it is also putting our existing schools under no need to progress schemes at the remaining schools as a zone would have network, as well as timely delivery of additional classrooms as required, in pressure. As a region, we are planning now so that we little impact on the capacity issues at these schools. the short to medium term we expect that we can accommodate this growth have enough space in our existing schools as well as We have opened a new full primary school in the growing area of Pyes Pa. adequately. providing more space where it is needed. Taumata School opened for Term 1, 2019 with an initial capacity of 400 As well as the above, we will continue to monitor rolls and collaborate with The Tauranga peninsula has a strong Kāhui Ako for both students. We are already planning for further development of this school as a Council to understand the uptake of development to ensure a proactive mainstream and Tauranga Moana kura. We know that result of the pace of growth. response to growth is provided. we need to accommodate growth in these communities of learning. We want to Recently, 12 additional classrooms have been funded at Tauranga Boys’ Beyond 2030 do that in a way that supports our Kāhui Ako to keep delivering excellent College, as have 19 classrooms at various primary schools across the education outcomes. catchment. In addition to this roll growth investment, significant Beyond 2030, growth is expected to continue at a similar rate. We expect that by 2043 there will be a further 1,000-2,000 school-age children in the I am very pleased to present the following plan for central and southern Tauranga redevelopment projects are underway at both the colleges and the Tauranga catchment that will require accommodating within the network. out to 2030. This growth plan focuses on Tauranga and complements the other intermediate in order to renew ageing buildings. We expect that the measures we are putting in place now will mean that local growth plans for Papamoa and Otumoetai. We’re committed to supporting Planning for short-term growth (3 years) there will be adequate schooling provision to accommodate this growth to the wellbeing of our tamariki and ensuring they have every opportunity to access 2043. This will continue to be monitored to reduce the risk of over- or an equitable education and achieve to their full potential, and this plan shows By 2021, we anticipate that capacity will need to be increased to under-provision in the network. how we will deliver on that. accommodate an additional 400-700 student places across the network. We will meet this demand through a variety of responses, including building new Ia manuia, capacity. Māori medium Ezra Schuster We are working to address growth in the short-term. Here’s how: In the Tauranga catchment, there are seven kōhanga reo, and five mainstream schools providing education in Māori medium. These schools • We are planning now for an additional 330 student places by 2021; Tauranga’s growth story have a combined immersion roll of 244 tauira across all year levels. About Tauranga has grown by nearly 50,000 people in the last two decades and this • We are investigating sites for a new primary school in southern Tauranga, 191 tauira from within the Tauranga catchment also travel to attend Māori growth is set to continue. Smartgrowth1 is planning now to accommodate to open by 2024, adding about 500 places to the primary network. immersion education in wider Tauranga area. There is no Māori medium another 20,000 people across the City by 2028, and another 50,000 by 2048. • We are considering options for increasing capacity at Tauriko School strategy for Tauranga Moana and the development of kura and mixed Some of this growth will be within existing urban areas and Council has recently where the existing site has limited expansion opportunities and significant medium schools has not been planned strategically. As a result, we are approved an increase in public transport funding to support this. future growth is planned at Tauriko West. NZTA plans for the adjacent initiating a Māori medium strategy. Within this catchment, growth looks like continued infill development in the state highway are a factor in this assessment. Ngāi Te Rangi and Ngāti Ranginui have been engaging with the Kāhui Ako established suburbs, and new development on the southern fringe at Pyes Pa, • We are planning to acquire a site for secondary schooling in the southern over the past decade. They have developed learning hubs and mentoring and to a lesser extent Ohauiti and Welcome Bay. There are also a number of part of the catchment to open within the next decade. Temporary programmes for rangatahi in both literacy and numeracy. They also have a Special Housing Areas that have been approved which will fast-track accommodation at other secondary schools across the city will be required successful track record of assisting Māori students to achieve NCEA L2 development to the south. Council is currently in the process of changing the to accommodate demand in the meantime. and beyond. These two iwi work across Tauranga Moana as a collective, urban limits to incorporate 346ha of undeveloped land in Tauriko West to which also includes Ngāti Pukenga. • We will engage with our Tauranga community about secondary schooling accommodate about 3,000 dwellings. This development could be open from options over the next 12 months. 2021 and will see another 7,200 people living in this area2. Learning Support • We are planning to develop a master plan roll for each school site to Mostly, the Tauranga catchment is made up of urban schools, but rural fringe Tauranga Special School is located in this catchment, as are three satellite enable better utilisation of existing spaces. schools are also facing pressure as the city expands outwards. The primary units to the base school. These have a combined roll of 60 students. There school network is under significant pressure, meaning the opening of a new is limited opportunity for additional capacity at the base school, however school this year is well-timed. The secondary network is expected to have capacity exists at some satellite units. We are supporting learning support sufficient capacity to around early 2020s. provision as demand remains high. Taumata School opened in 2019 with a dedicated Board-managed learning support space, and future secondary provision will also have dedicated learning support space. 1 Partnership between Bay of Plenty Regional Council, Tauranga City Council, Western Bay of Plenty District, NZTA and tangata whenua to deliver a spatial plan for managing growth in the Bay of Plenty. 2 http://econtent.tauranga.govt.nz/data/bigfiles/committee_meetings/2017/march/agen_council_28mar2017_attachment_e_dc55.pdf 3 Statistics NZ population projections, 5-17yr olds, 2013 base Tauranga: Blueprint for Growth New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
This growth plan covers the Tauranga central and southern Tauranga areas in the Bay of Plenty - Waiariki education region. In the Tauranga catchment, there are 22 schools including: 17 state schools, 4 state integrated schools and a private school; 9 contributing, 6 full primary, an intermediate, a composite, 3 secondary schools, a teen parent unit and a special school. As at July 2018, this catchment had a combined school roll of 10,619 students, including 305 Māori Medium students and 172 ORS students.
What’s influencing the Growth Plan Rapid growth » Tauranga has grown by nearly 50,000 people in the last two Here’s what's already underway that’s giving us a decades and this growth is set to continue. Local and regional head start to meet growth in the region council are planning to accommodate another 20,000 people across the city by 2028, and another 50,000 by 2048. » An additional 12 secondary classrooms Large scale residential developments and 19 primary classrooms. » There are a number of SHAs that have been approved which will fast-track development to the south. In Tauriko » Significant redevelopment projects are West a development which could open from 2021, will underway at both secondary schools and potentially accommodate about 3,000 dwellings with an the intermediate in order to renew ageing additional 7,200 people living in this area. buildings. Current network will reach full capacity » The primary school network is under significant pressure, so » We have opened a new full primary the opening of a new school this year is well-timed. The (Taumata School) for Term 1, 2019 with secondary network is expected to have sufficient capacity to an initial capacity of 400 students. around the early 2020s. Planning for Stage 2 is underway.
Growth Plan to 2030
2019 2022 2030
175 student 150 student 75 student Possible relocation Potential new secondary opens places places places of primary school 2025 (at the earliest) Taumata 1,000 student places Primary School Potential Potential new 400 student Stage 2 primary (southern places Taumata Tauranga) Additional 1,000- School 500 student places 2,000 student Consultation Additional 400-700 250 student places required about places student places required secondary schooling » We are considering options for possible relocation of a school given » We are initiating a options » Eleven of the 15 state schools in this catchment have enrolment proposed future roading network changes. schemes in place, with a twelfth scheme commencing in 2019. At Māori Medium strategy. » We are engaging with our Tauranga community about secondary Acquisition of this stage, there is no need to progress schemes at the remaining » We are supporting schooling options over the next 12 months. primary site in Enrolment schools as a zone would have little impact on the capacity issues learning support southern zones at these schools. Network » We plan to develop a master plan roll for each school site to enable provision as demand Tauranga, and changes better utilisation of existing spaces. remains high. Taumata primary and School has opened with secondary sites Expanding a dedicated Board- Provision in south-western » Temporary accommodation is required in the immediate term to » We are investigating sites for a new primary school in southern managed learning Type Tauranga accommodate growth prior to the opening of the new primary school Tauranga to open by 2024, adding about 500 spaces to the primary support space. in southern Tauranga. network. » Temporary accommodation at secondary schools across the city will Roll growth Establish » We are planning to acquire a site for secondary schooling in the be required to accommodate demand until a new school opens. funding New Schools south-western part of the catchment to open by 2025 (at the earliest). TARANAKI, WHANGANUI, MANAWATŪ New Plymouth: Steady Growing New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Director’s message: The majority of primary schools have now maximised their capacity. • We are supporting schools with restricted spaces to effectively manage The last 10 years has seen accelerating growth in the New Schools with capacity are clustered in the central south-western area. their enrolment schemes to reduce the risk of overcrowding. Plymouth area supported by the agriculture and oil and gas These schools are expected to accommodate the infill growth in this area • The secondary schools will require investment to meet the needs of the sectors. This is an exciting time for the city but it is also a time as enrolment schemes take effect. The other schools with limited capacity growing secondary population. We are already replacing buildings no of change, as the city considers options for diversifying the have rapidly increasing rolls. longer fit for purpose. We will continue to work collaboratively with the economy. What have we done so far? secondary sector and closely monitor rolls and growth uptake, including The underlying student population has increased, as have what role integrated schools should play to manage this peak growth. school retention rates that are well supported by secondary- • Between 2013-2017, we have spent $6.5 million on 16 additional • While there is no site acquisition currently underway, we will continue to tertiary partnerships. This will result in continued pressure on teaching spaces across the wider catchment. We established a work closely with Council to predict when and where we require land to our schools. We have also seen an increased demand for both Māori medium wharekura at Te Pi'ipi'inga Kākano Mai I Rangiātea in 2014 and built make provision for the longer-term developments. and Catholic education. four new specialist teaching spaces. In Budget 18, an additional teaching space was announced for Vogeltown School. We know the New Plymouth community is supportive of the growth we’re Beyond 2030 • We have supported schools to implement eight new enrolment schemes experiencing, but also cautious that we have the right infrastructure in place to Growth beyond 2030 looks likely to be at a slower pace. Following recent and ran a series of workshops to ensure the operation of the enrolment manage it appropriately. We plan to use our existing school network to its fullest growth, the region is now considering future growth drivers to reposition schemes supports the best use of the schooling network. potential and utilise the strong network of walking and cycle ways within the city itself going forward. This makes the future growth path uncertain, however to help our learners get safely to their local school. Planning for short-term growth (3 years) Council’s long-term planning for greenfield development and associated investment in infrastructure points to the likelihood of additional schooling I am delighted to present this plan to support planning for the ongoing growth • If growth projections materialise as expected, we will need to provision being required across the New Plymouth region beyond 2030. within the city and surrounds. Having the right provision in the right place at the accommodate an additional 420-530 student places at the primary level. right time will help deliver an education system that enables every New This is likely to occur at existing urban schools where infill development Zealander to achieve and be the best they can be. has seen the schools’ rolls increase significantly. We expect there will Māori medium Ngā mihi, be a need for the acquisition of land for future primary provision south of the city in the next 2-3 years. New Plymouth has the region’s second highest Māori student Jann Marshall population however only 3% of these students access Māori medium • At the secondary level, an additional 70-140 student places will be education (MME). The region’s Māori population accounts for a third of New Plymouth’s growth story needed by 2021. We expect rolls in our single-sex and Catholic the student population and is projected to continue to increase. secondary schools to be nearing capacity by 2021, with surplus capacity New Plymouth has been identified as a High Growth Urban Area1, exceeding available at the co-ed college. Māori medium is accessible in the south west of the city but has limited 10% growth over a 10 year period. The city is projected to increase by an capacity and limited opportunities for expansion. In this catchment, • In 2020, we will begin discussions with secondary schools to implement additional 7,000-12,840 people out to 2030, taking the population to there are two te kōhanga reo and one composite kura. The kura has a approximately 89,000-97,0002. enrolment schemes. This presents an opportunity to be innovative, and roll of 99 tauira enrolled in Māori medium immersion (Levels 1 and 2). we are already engaging with school and community leaders to Council is planning for more growth within the city through intensification and infill determine what the future of secondary provision could look like. The pathways for MME are very limited and we have a growing Māori housing. New urban areas are also proposed to the south-west, south and north- population. We will be listening to our iwi partners to determine how to • We will be working with all secondary schools to ensure network east of the city in the Upper Carrington and Junction structure plans, and the best support the aspirations of whānau within the education system. Frankley and Cowling Roads urban growth areas. Longer-term urban solutions (such as enrolment schemes, transport provision and We anticipate the need for land acquisition to support this initiative. development is proposed for Glen Avon and the Smart Road urban growth area, integrated school maximum rolls) support the best use of the existing Learning Support with new transport infrastructure required before this proceeds. network. We know we have increasing demand from students accessing To the northeast, there is ongoing development in the coastal corridor between • We’ll also continue to support the revitalisation of schools to improve specialist learning support facilities. In response to this, we will need Fitzroy and Waitara, particularly around Bell Block and Puketapu. Oakura, a their education environment and parental appeal. additional provision for these children. We have revitalised some of the small coastal town south-west of the city, has received significant infrastructure Planning for medium-term growth (3-10 years) property at Spotswood College, including a large purpose-built facility investment from Council to cater for growth. This area is anticipated to continue designed to meet the needs of the increasing number of students with to grow rapidly as a result. Peak growth is currently predicted between 2024-2026. Beyond this, growth in the school-age population plateaus. Here’s how we’ll manage this: very high learning support needs. New Plymouth has a strong boarding community at both state and state integrated secondary schools. Boarding facilities provide approximately 600 out- • We have identified existing schools that have sufficient space to of-town secondary students with places at the city’s schools. accommodate an increase in students and will work closely with these schools to deliver additional capacity as demand increases. 1 National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity, an instrument issued under Section 52(2) of the Resource Management Act 1991 2 Statistics NZ population projections, 2013 base (Medium and High scenario) New Plymouth: Steady Growing New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
This growth plan covers the New Plymouth network in the Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū education region. In the New Plymouth catchment, there are 30 schools including: 24 state and 6 state integrated schools; 15 contributing primary schools, 6 full primary, 2 intermediates, 2 composite schools and 5 secondary schools. As at July 2018, this catchment had a combined school roll of 11,562 students, including 96 Māori Medium students and 128 ORS students.
What’s influencing the Growth Plan
Infill suburb intensification Here’s what's already underway that’s giving us a head start to Central City, Mangorei, Whalers Gate and the meet growth in the region Frankley/Cowling areas are identified as high infill growth areas. 70% of primary schools have enrolment schemes or maximum rolls. Further enrolment schemes are in the exploratory/implementation stage. Green field developments The Upper Carrington and Junction areas in the north-eastern suburbs are experiencing both green Additional roll growth teaching spaces will be added to field and infill growth. This is our primary growth high growth areas of the network. area. Bell Block and Puketapu have large planned developments. Invested in additional learning support provision. Satellite township growth Exploring the possibility of expansion of the MME pathways. Design innovative re-purposing of existing Growth in Oakura is driven by existing investment in spaces. infrastructure and is expected to continue.
Growth Plan to 2030
2019 2022 2030
Planning Consultation Implementation Potential new Potential new primary 225 primary provision provision in northeast, 150 Potential land student in south, 350 student places – student acquisition of up places 350 student places timing to be places to two primary – timing to be determined based on Revitalisation school sites – determined based monitoring for deprived TBC on monitoring areas
» Growth within the existing state schools can mean the network » We will work with the sector to co-construct enrolment structure no longer fits the purpose of a quality, accessible, schemes, re-configure enrolment schemes and support equitable and resource efficient education network. We will schools to implement enrolment schemes to ensure the best explore with schools whether re-organisation remains a viable » Secondary schools will require investment to meet the Enrolment use of the existing state network. option as part of a wider network solution. Network needs of the growing secondary population. We are zones » Revitalisation of schools has the potential to improve efficiency solutions already rationalising buildings no longer fit for purpose of schools across the network. and understand the need to provide a schooling network where all students’ needs are met and that is Expanding reasonably accessible where possible. We will continue » We will establish new schools where and when required. Provision Type to work collaboratively with the secondary sector and closely monitor rolls and growth uptake. » We plan to build permanent capacity where it is needed. We » We are collaborating with the New Plymouth District Council will also deliver temporary spaces to schools where and when and their partners to understand the future residential short term capacity is required. growth and proactively plan to ensure the right provision is Roll growth Establish New in the right place at the right time funding Schools Palmerston North: Steady Growing New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Director’s message: What have we done so far? • The secondary schools will require investment to meet the needs of the growing secondary population. We are already replacing buildings no Palmerston North is a city steadily growing. The underlying • We have provided seven additional teaching spaces across the catchment. longer fit for purpose. We will continue to work collaboratively with the student population has increased, as have school retention We established Manukura in 2016 and Budget 18 allocated $20 million to secondary sector and closely monitor rolls and growth uptake, including rates that are well supported by the secondary-tertiary build the school on a permanent site. what role integrated schools might play to manage this peak growth. partnerships. • In 2017/18 we supported schools to implement or amend four enrolment The growth in primary school rolls over the last five years schemes and held a series of workshops to ensure the operation of the Beyond 2030 has not yet peaked, and we expect the city’s secondary enrolment schemes supports the best use of the schooling network. We are Growth beyond 2030 looks likely to be at a slower pace. Recently, school rolls to grow accordingly. We plan to use our currently in the process of implementing a further three enrolment schemes Palmerston North has experienced significant growth, which has been existing school network to its fullest potential and invest in and are closely monitoring school rolls. supported by the healthcare and social assistance, manufacturing and new infrastructure where required. • We own land on Ruapehu Drive in Poutoa. However, we are considering logistics sectors. The region has significant development projects in I am delighted to present this plan outlining how we will manage growth in whether this is the best location for a new school given the location of recent defence, health, food technology, and research. Council’s long-term Palmerston North. Like the other growth plans across the country, this plan will growth. planning for green field development and associated investment in deliver the right provision in the right place at the right time, giving our children infrastructure points to the likelihood of additional schooling provision being the opportunity to be the best they can be. Planning for short-term growth (3 years) required across the Palmerston North catchment beyond 2030. Ngā mihi, • Stats NZ projections do not account for the recent growth experienced in Palmerston North. We expect peak growth at the primary level will be in Jann Marshall 2019/2020, and our best estimates show we’ll need between 200-1,000 Māori medium additional student places. This is most likely to occur at existing urban The Palmerston North/Manawatū region’s Māori population accounts for a schools where infill development has seen the schools’ rolls increase third of the total student population and is projected to increase. The highest Palmerston North’s growth story significantly. We expect there will be a need for the acquisition of land for at Māori student population within the region is in Palmerston North, where least one new primary school in this catchment. 11% of the Māori students access Māori medium education. In 2017, Palmerston North was identified as a growth area, exceeding 10% growth over a 10 year period. The city is projected to increase by an additional • At the secondary level, we will need between 235-320 student places by Whilst Māori medium education is accessible through Kura Kaupapa Māori 7,000-12,800 people out to 2030, taking the total population to 95,000- 2021. We know that secondary school capacity in our single sex secondary and Level 1 and 2 classes within English Medium state schools, there has 103,0001. schools has already been exceeded. We will work with the schools to ensure been additional demand for designated character education to meet the solutions support the best use of the existing network. We’ll also continue to needs of Māori secondary students. The majority of growth within the city is expected to occur in Kelvin Grove and support the revitalisation of schools to improve their education environment Manukura has been established as a result of whānau demand for Whakarongo to the north-east, Ashhurst to the east, and Poutoa on the and parental appeal. southern side of the Manawatū river. Growth in the Kelvin Grove area is alternative academic and sporting pathways. A second campus of the expected to slow as the area fills up, with the adjacent Stoney Creek area • We’ll continue to monitor roll growth and work with Palmerston North City Hamilton kura, Tai Wānanga is also situated in Aokautere. accelerating. In the longer term, greenfield developments are planned in the and Manawatū District Councils to understand development uptake and west of the city. ensure the right provision is in the right place at the right time. Learning Support In the last five years, state primary school rolls have increased by about 700 Planning for medium-term growth (3-10 years) We know we have increasing demand from students accessing specialist learning support facilities. In 2018 Palmerston North had 242 ORS and High students. As a result, the majority of urban primary schools have now reached Peak growth for the secondary population is currently predicted between 2024 Health Needs students, a 6% increase on the previous year. or exceeded their capacity. As these students move into secondary, there is and 2026. Beyond this, growth in the school-age population is expected to some capacity. Co-ed options are fully accessible across the city. However, the plateau. Four schools have specialist learning support facilities. Central Normal single-sex secondary schools are at capacity, have small enrolment schemes School, Freyberg High School and Awatapu College have direct funded • We have identified existing schools that have sufficient space to that do not reflect the school catchments, and consequently have many of out- specialist units with a combined roll of 116 students. Arahunga Special accommodate an increase in students and will work closely with these of-zone students. School (Whanganui) has a satellite unit at West End School catering for 15 schools to deliver additional capacity as demand increases. We are students. Arahunga Special School has also established an outreach Palmerston North has well established school boarding facilities that serve the supporting schools with restricted spaces to effectively manage their service based at Queen Elizabeth College to support students in the wider rural area between Ruapehu and Levin. This adds significant student enrolment schemes to reduce the risk of overcrowding. numbers to the secondary population. mainstream schools across the city. • We expect new primary provision will be required in the Poutoa area to the southeast in the next decade. Additional primary provision in the north may be required in the next decade. We will continue to monitor rolls and 1,2 Statistics NZ population projections, 2013 base (Medium and High scenario) development uptake to inform potential timing in both of these locations. Palmerston North: Steady Growing New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
This growth plan covers the Palmerston North catchment in the Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū Education Region. In the Palmerston North catchment, there are 54 schools including: 46 state, 7 state integrated, and a private school; 19 contributing primary schools, 21 full primary, 3 intermediates, 8 secondary schools, a teen parent unit and 2 composite schools. As at July 2018, this catchment had a combined school roll of 16,346 students, including 530 Māori Medium students and 214 ORS students.
What’s influencing the Growth Plan
Steady and diverse growth across the catchment Here’s what's already underway that’s giving us a head start to Areas within the catchment are experiencing both green meet growth in the region field and infill growth. Economic development across the Manawatū catchment has also seen new building growth 68% of schools within the city boundaries have in satellite towns such as Ashhurst, Hiwinui and enrolment schemes or maximum rolls. Further Tokomaru enrolment schemes are in the exploratory/ Primary network near full capacity implementation stage. State primary school rolls have increased by about 700 students in the last five years. The majority of urban Manukura opened in 2016 in response to demand primary schools have now reached or exceeded their for Māori medium secondary education. Currently capacity. has a roll of 185 students and is at capacity. Parent choice influencing utilisation Single-sex secondary schools are at capacity, have Additional roll growth teaching spaces will be small enrolment schemes that do not reflect the added to high growth areas of the network. school catchments, and consequently have many Innovative repurposing of existing spaces. out-of-zone students.
Growth Plan to 2030
2019 2022 2030
Planning Consultation Implementation Possible land Potential new primary Potential new primary acquisition in north provision in southeast provision in north of catchment 400 places 350 places – timing to Revitalisation 150 student 150 student be determined based for deprived places places on monitoring and areas review
» We will work with the sector to co-construct enrolment schemes, » Growth within the existing state schools can mean the network » While there remains capacity to deliver Māori medium re-configure enrolment schemes and support schools to structure no longer fits the purpose of a quality, accessible, equitable education through immersion units within mainstream state implement enrolment schemes to ensure the best use of the and resource efficient education network. schools, there has been additional demand for designated character education to meet the needs of Māori secondary Enrolment existing state network. » We will explore with schools whether re-organisation remains a Network students. zones » We will monitor enrolment schemes to ensure best use of the solutions viable option as part of a wider network solution. school network. Expanding Provision » Revitalisation of schools has the potential to improve Type efficiency of schools across the network.
» We will establish new schools where and when required. We » The secondary schools will require investment to meet the needs of the » We plan to build permanent capacity where and when it is will assess the best location for a future school in the southeast, growing secondary population. We are already rationalising buildings no needed. including whether the currently owned site is most suitable. longer fit for purpose and understand the need to provide a schooling » We will also deliver temporary spaces to schools where and Establish » We are collaborating with the Palmerston North City Council network where all students’ needs are met and that is reasonably Roll growth when short-term capacity is required. New and their partners to understand future residential growth and accessible, where possible. We will continue to work collaboratively with funding Schools proactively plan to ensure the right provision is in the right place the secondary sector and closely monitor rolls and growth uptake. at the right time. National Education Growth Plan New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030 Disclaimers • The National Education Growth Plan (NEGP) identifies what we know from a range of sources about the anticipated location and nature of patterns of growth in school-aged children. The NEGP also identifies measures that the Government may need to consider in order to meet this growth in the period through to 2030.
• The NEGP focuses only on high growth areas and the immediate demand for state school infrastructure to 2030. However, we will continue to work with proprietors to recognise and understand the demand for state integrated schooling in particular catchments and ensure that state integrated provision is considered within the context of our catchment planning.
• The NEGP is split by region, and within large regions split into smaller catchment areas. The catchment plans identify drivers of growth, the impact on the current network and forecast where new capacity is needed across the compulsory school network.
• The NEGP comprises 39 catchment plans covering the areas of highest student population growth. Growth in these catchments is having the biggest impact on existing schools, and is increasing demand for new infrastructure across New Zealand’s state school network.
• Delivery of this plan to meet the demand for student places in the NEGP will be sought through Budget 19 and subsequent Budgets. Future investment in infrastructure to meet demand will be subject to Cabinet agreement.
• Delivery solutions and responses will be informed by our ongoing monitoring of developments in and across catchments and regions and their associated impact on the forecast student demand.
• The Ministry has developed the New Zealand Catchment Planning Model (NZCPM) to forecast the student place demand and distribution for education infrastructure. The model compares the forecast demand with the space available in schools (supply), including approved new space, to identify the potential future requirement for additional student places (demand).
• Forecast demand for student places is based on regional analysis and catchment modelling and is current at November 2018. These forecasts will change as growth patterns emerge and develop over time, and as key input data is updated, such as school roll data, population projections, and large-scale developments.
• Population projections and forecast student demand are derived from Statistics New Zealand data in the first instance. At a catchment level, we add local insights such as the extent of housing development and student movements across a catchment.
• The catchment model overlays a number of data sources to enable us to make specific infrastructure decisions within school catchments for student places. This model factors in the lead times of major infrastructure projects and is not designed to roll up at a macro level, unlike other Ministry projection tools.
• Catchment maps show the location of all schools within the catchment, including those schools that have opened in 2019. The catchment maps show roll growth between 2007-2017.
• Information related to schools, learning support or Māori medium education is limited to what was known and understood as occurring in the catchment at the time this plan was written. Comprehensive national plans for Māori medium education and the provision of specialist schools and associated satellite units are being developed and sit outside this plan.
• The NEGP is a flexible, dynamic and live document. It is subject to change as growth patterns change. We will monitor the NEGP annually and review as required to ensure that we are continuing to provide accurate, reliable and up-to-date information and data to inform the right investment decisions into the future. National Education Growth Plan New Zealand Education Growth Plan to 2030
Key to Icons:
Parental choice Funding required for influencing utilisation additional student places
New school or student Network structure places are delivered on solutions the ground
Additional learners in the Enrolment schemes catchment
Redevelopment and Demand to expand refurbishment provision type
Availability and Large scale residential acquisition of appropriate development land sites
Constraints on existing site capacity