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Mittel ITALY \ Holding Mittel ITALY \ Holding New Coverage NEW AND DYNAMIC MANAGEMENT IN A SOLID INVESTMENT COMPANY BUY (n.a.) We initiate coverage with a BUY based on high discount to NAV (40%), solid financial structure, lower risk for banking activity than the other Target: € 4.0 (n.a.) banks and upside potential of recently acquired E.Capital and Hopa. Risk: High Target price € 4.0 PS, applying a 15% discount to NAV of € 4.7 PS (which implies a 43% upside). STOCK DATA Price € 2.8 Mittel (MIT) is an investment/merchant bank that is simultaneously and Bloomberg Code MIT IM complementarily active in: Market Cap. (€ mn) 198 • Private equity as an active shareholder in both listed and unlisted Free Float 32% companies Shares Out. (mn) 71 • Advisory services for extraordinary finance operations 52-week range 1.92 - 4.6 • Operating Finance Daily Volumes (mn) 0.03 • Investment Management Advisory concerning the creation of indexes and investments decisions via the application of ESG PERFORMANCE 1M 3M 12M (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria Absolute -9.6% 12.9% -37.3% • Real estate investment typically in residential property development Rel. To Mibtel Index 1.1% 26.9% 7.0% The company’s main features are: MAIN METRICS 2008 2009E 2010E EPS 47.9 65.2 8.2 • A sound financial structure: holding system net cash at € 11 mn and DPS 15.0 15.0 15.0 over € 500 mn of available credit lines. • Much more diversified portfolio than other Italian holdings since NAV 2008 2009E 2010E no one of the assets worth more than 15% of NAV Nav ps ord - € 4.5 4.7 4.7 • Unusual prevalence of unlisted assets (76% of total asset) Listed assets 27% 24% 24% • High dividend yield (5.3%, to be paid this month and with good Controlling assets 39% 42% 42% visibility for the current year thanks to Moncler deal capital gain). MULTIPLES 2008 2009E 2010E In the past 3 years (Sep. 2006-08) the company achieved excellent P/E 4.8 x 4.4 x 34.9 x results: net interest income and adj. net profit +18% and +81% CAGR P/NAV 0.51 x 0.60 x 0.60 x PBV 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 x respectively, mostly on the back of: (a) operating financing activity profits; INDEBTNESS 2008 2009E 2010E (b) good performance of real estate divisions (avg. net profit of € 5.9 mn); Holding system NFP 10.9 14.5 19.1 (c) an increase in dividends received from main shareholdings. D/E n.m. n.m. n.m. Debt to assets n.m. n.m. n.m. The strategy implemented by new Managing Director G. Gorno Tempini appointed in November 2007 focuses on recently acquired E.Capital able to generate recurrent profits and on Private Equity PRICE ORD. LAST 365 DAYS business brillant track record, fuelled by the successful Moncler deal 4.4 1. 18 (last August monetised, 3 years after entry, with IRR of 88%). 1. 13 3.9 1. 0 8 1. 0 3 3.4 0.98 Applying a 15% discount to our NAV of € 4.7 PS, we fix our target 2.9 0.93 2.4 0.88 price at € 4.0 PS. 0.83 1. 9 0.78 We start our coverage with a BUY recommendation based on the: • High discount to NAV (40% vs an avg. of 10% in the last 2 years); Rel vs Mibtel index (RHS) M IT IM Equit y (LHS) • Low 2008 P/BV (0.53x vs 0.58x of the italian investment companies); • Sound holding system financial structure; • Risk for its banking activity lower than the comparables average. ANALYSTS Additional potential upsides/catalysts for the stock are: Luigi de Bellis +39 02 6204 375 – [email protected] • Restructuring of HOPA (which has just been acquired) Martino De Ambroggi; +39 02 6204238; • Partial monetisation of the private equity portfolio and merchant [email protected] banks stakes (19% of NAV). A new buy back program will be approved by BoD on February 12th. February 6, 2009 # 29 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT 1 Mittel – February 6, 2009 MAIN FIGURES € mn* 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Interest margin 1 3 5 4 5 5 Dividends 23 23 0 0 7 8 Net interest margin 24 26 5 5 12 13 Trading 0 -11 1 1 1 1 TOTAL INCOME 25 21 24 23 31 33 Results from Real Estate 7 4 2 4 4 4 Growth -2% -38% -52% 100% 0% 0% Results from Fin and RE 32 25 26 27 35 37 Growth -57% -21% 4% 1% 31% 5% Operating costs -19 -18 -19 -19 -22 -23 Growth -56.6% -20.9% 4.4% 1.1% 30.9% 5.4% Gross operating profit 13 7 7 8 13 14 Profit before tax 23 64 118 7 12 13 Growth -65.3% 183.6% 85.1% -94.2% 71.2% 8.4% Taxes -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 Tax rate 6% 2% 2% 16% 18% 17% Minoritiy interests -6 -31 -70 0 0 0 Net income reported 15 32 46 6 10 11 Growth -74% 106% 45% -87% 67% 9% Margin 64% 120% 905% 123% 78% 82% Net income adjusted 4 15 4 5 11 12 Growth -17% 295% -75% 26% 142% 8% Margin 15.3% 55.3% 71.1% 96.4% 88.8% 92.0% STOCK DATA 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E EPS - € cents 23.3 47.9 65.2 8.2 13.8 15.1 Growth -74% 106% 36% -87% 67% 9% Adj. EPS - € cents 5.6 22.1 5.1 6.5 15.7 16.9 Growth -17% 295% -77% 26% 142% 8% DPS ord - € cents 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Nav ps ord - € 5.00 4.52 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.65 VARIOUS - € mn 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Capital employed 393 366 328 317 305 294 INDEBTNESS 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E NFP 29 49 123 130 140 152 D/E n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Interests cov n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. MARKET RATIOS 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E PNAV 1.1 x 0.5 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x PBV 0.8 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x P/E 22.6 x 4.8 x 4.3 x 34.0 x 20.3 x 18.6 x P/E Adj 94.2 x 10.4 x 54.7 x 43.3 x 17.9 x 16.6 x P/CF 22.2 x 4.8 x 4.3 x 30.3 x 18.9 x 17.4 x REMUNERATION 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Div. Yield 2.9% 6.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% Roe 3.7% 7.6% 10.6% 1.3% 2.2% 2.4% ROCE 3.9% 8.6% 14.0% 1.8% 3.2% 3.6% Source: EQUITA SIM estimates and company data * Year end September IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT 2 Mittel – February 6, 2009 MITTEL NAV INVESTMENT CASE: INITIATING COVERAGE WITH BUY AND TARGET PRICE OF € 4.0 Assets € mn Listed Assets 82 Direct Participations 69 We initiate coverage of MIT with a BUY and target price of € 4.0 PS (based on Real Estate 40 NAV), which implies 43% upside from current levels Operating Finance 96 Merchant Banks 60 MIT is well positioned to be a winner in today’s volatile environment. We Total assets 347 consider the firm’s diversified model (no one of the assets worth more than 15% NFP 11 of NAV) and sound financial structure (with holding system net cash we HOLDING COSTS -30 calculate at € 11 mn) as key points of differentiation. Total NAV 328 Nr. of Shares (mn) 71 NAV per Ord share € 4.7 Current discount 40% Source: EQUITA SIM estimate MITTEL – NAV Asset Sector Stake % # shares € PS € mn % Valuation method Intesa Sanpaolo Banking 0.13% 15.0 2.3 35.1 11% Market Value UBI Banca ScpA Banking 0.68% 4.3 9.1 39.5 12% Market Value RCS Media Group SpA Media 1.3% 9.3 0.7 6.9 2% Market Value TOTAL LISTED SHAREHOLDINGS (1) 81.5 25% Merchant Banks partecipations Merchant bank stakes n.m. 60.5 18% Costs + spread E.Capital Partners Financial Services 100.0% 50.0 15% M&A deal price (P/E 09-10 = 10 – 9.2 x) Property Assets Real Estate 100.0% 40.0 12% Cost + incremental exp as June 08 Mittel Generale Investimenti Financial Services 100.0% 46.2 14% Adj 2009E P/BV 0.7x Azimut-Benetti Luxury Motor Yachts 5.5% 29.2 9% BV as Sep-08 (EV/EBITDA 07-08E 8.2 – 5.8x) Astrim Real Estate Services 13.5% 12.6 4% BV as Sep-08 (EV/EBITDA 07 16.7 x) Tethys (Hopa) Holding 34.0% 10.0 3% BV as Sep-08 (30% discount to NAV as june-08) Moncler (Brands Partners 2) Retail 2.0% 6.0 2% Deal Price Oct-08 /EV/EBITDA 07-08E = 10.2 – 8.5x) Fondo Progressio Investimenti Private Equity Fund 13.5% 5.5 2% BV as Sep-08 Istituto Atesino di Sviluppo S.p.A. Holding 1.8% 2.7 1% BV as Sep-08 (P/BV 07 1.2 x) SIA-SSB IT Services 0.3% 1.4 0% BV as Sep-08 (EV/EBITDA 07 6.5 x) Vimercati Industrial 4.1% 0.6 0% BV as Sep-08 (P/E 07 = 24.5 x) Publimethod Holding 5.7% 0.6 0% BV as Sep-08 (P/E 07 = 5.7 x) TOTAL UNLISTED SHAREHOLDINGS (2) 265 81% ATTRIBUTABLE NFP (3) 11 3% Adj.
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