Design, Planning + Prepared for: Submitted by Cheshire East Council AECOM Economics Bridgewater House, Whitworth Street, Manchester, M1 6LT July 2015 Spatial Distribution Update Report Final Report United Kingdom & Ireland AECOM Spatial Distribution Support TC-i Table of contents 1 Executive Summary 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Approach 1 1.3 Key findings 2 1.4 Options for testing the spatial distribution 5 1.5 Options analysis 10 1.6 Sustainability Appraisal and Habitats Regulation Assessment 13 1.7 Habitats Regulation Assessment 13 1.8 Recommendations 13 1.9 Implications for site allocations 15 2 Introduction and scope 17 2.1 Background to the commission 17 2.2 Council’s approach to date 17 2.3 Key objectives/issues that the commission must respond to 20 2.4 Key Requirements and Outputs 23 3 Methodology 24 3.1 Approach 24 4 Alternative spatial distribution options 27 4.2 Options for testing the spatial distribution 27 4.3 Options analysis 33 5 Summary of issues identified through the Settlement Profiles 36 5.2 Principal Towns 37 5.3 Key Service Centres 38 5.4 Local Service Centres 41 5.5 Conclusions 44 6 Vision and Strategic Priorities 47 7 Consultation and the Duty to Cooperate 49 7.1 Consultation Responses 49 7.2 Duty to Cooperate 50 8 Infrastructure 53 8.2 Public transport 53 8.3 Utilities 54 8.4 Emergency Services 54 8.5 Health facilities 54 8.6 Education 55 8.7 Leisure and culture 56 8.8 Community facilities 57 9 Highways modelling 58 10 Deliverability and Viability 62 10.2 Residential Development 62 10.3 Commercial Development 64 11 Policy and Physical Constraints 67 11.2 Landscape Character 67 11.3 Nature Conservation 69 11.4 Historic Environment and Heritage 72 11.5 Flood Risk 75 11.6 Best and most versatile agricultural land 77 11.7 Open space and green infrastructure 79 12 Other material factors 82 13 Green Belt 84 13.2 Summary of general area assessment 88 13.3 Summary of detailed assessment of smaller parcels 89 i AECOM Spatial Distribution Support TC-ii 14 Development needs 100 14.1 Economic Potential and Employment Land Requirements 100 14.2 Housing Needs 102 15 Development opportunities 104 15.1 Urban potential and edge of settlement analysis 104 16 Sustainable Development 109 16.1 Green Belt Sustainability Appraisal and HRA findings of Aecom reasonable alternatives for spatial distribution 109 17 Summary of constraints and opportunities 111 17.2 Principal Towns 111 17.3 Key Service Centres 113 17.4 Local Service Centres 118 17.5 Other Settlements and Rural Areas 119 18 Conclusions and recommendations 120 18.2 Recommendations 121 18.3 Rejected options 125 APPENDICES 127 Appendix 1: Consultation phases which informed development of the Council’s approach to spatial distribution 128 Appendix 2: Spatial options considered in the development of the Spatial Distribution 129 Appendix 3: Option 1 Proportionate growth of PG6 (settlement review and rationale)132 Appendix 4: Option 2 2011 Census with proportionate growth (settlement review and rationale) 133 Appendix 5: Option 3 Economic strategy-led spatial distribution (settlement review and rationale) 134 Appendix 6: Option 4 Constraints / impact-led spatial distribution (settlement review and rationale) 140 Appendix 7: Option 5 Hybrid spatial distribution (settlement review and rationale) 145 Appendix 7a: Option 6 Recommended spatial distribution (settlement review and rationale) 150 Appendix 8: Establishing the ‘baseline position’ 155 Appendix 9 Settlement Profile: Crewe (demographic, housing and employment information) 156 Appendix 10 Settlement Profile: Macclesfield (demographic, housing and employment information) 160 Appendix 11 Settlement Profile: Alsager (demographic, housing and employment information) 164 Appendix 12 Settlement Profile: Congleton (demographic, housing and employment information) 168 Appendix 13 Settlement Profile: Handforth (demographic, housing and employment information) 172 Appendix 14 Settlement Profile: Knutsford (demographic, housing and employment information) 176 Appendix 15 Settlement Profile: Middlewich (demographic, housing and employment information) 180 Appendix 16 Settlement Profile: Nantwich (demographic, housing and employment information) 184 Appendix 17 Settlement Profile: Poynton (demographic, housing and employment information) 188 Appendix 18 Settlement Profile: Sandbach (demographic, housing and employment information) 192 Appendix 19 Settlement Profile: Wilmslow (demographic, housing and employment information) 196 Appendix 20 Settlement Profile: Alderley Edge (demographic, housing and employment information) 200 Appendix 21 Settlement Profile: Audlem (demographic, housing and employment information) 204 Appendix 22 Settlement Profile: Bollington (demographic, housing and employment ii AECOM Spatial Distribution Support TC-iii information) 208 Appendix 23 Settlement Profile: Bunbury (demographic, housing and employment information) 212 Appendix 24 Settlement Profile: Chelford (demographic, housing and employment information) 216 Appendix 25 Settlement Profile: Disley (demographic, housing and employment information) 220 Appendix 26 Settlement Profile: Goostrey (demographic, housing and employment information) 224 Appendix 27 Settlement Profile: Haslington (demographic, housing and employment information) 228 Appendix 28 Settlement Profile: Holmes Chapel (demographic, housing and employment information) 232 Appendix 29 Settlement Profile: Mobberley (demographic, housing and employment information) 236 Appendix 30 Settlement Profile: Prestbury (demographic, housing and employment information) 240 Appendix 31 Settlement Profile: Shavington (demographic, housing and employment information) 244 Appendix 32 Settlement Profile: Wrenbury (demographic, housing and employment information) 248 Table 1 Key Findings 2 Table 2 Options subject to testing 6 Table 3 Options subject to Sustainability Appraisal and HRA testing 9 Table 4 North and South balance of housing 10 Table 5 Differences between the objective-led strategic options 11 Table 6 Discarded options 14 Table 7 Analysis of recommended option against completions/commitments 15 Table 8 Factors influencing spatial distribution in submitted LPS 17 Table 9 How the spatial distribution study has addressed the Inspector's concerns 21 Table 10 Options subject to testing 29 Table 11 Options subject to Sustainability Appraisal and HRA testing 32 Table 12 North and South balance of housing 33 Table 13 Differences between the objective-led strategic options 34 Table 14 Analysis of Spatial Distribution Option 6 and settlement statistics 45 Table 15 Pre-Submission Core Strategy Main Issues and Council's Response relating to spatial distribution 49 Table 16 Consideration of Duty-to-Cooperate issues which have had an influence on the spatial distribution 50 Table 17 Maximum CIL rates used for testing in Cheshire East viability study (not actual Borough CIL charges) 62 Table 18 Summary of Cheshire East residential sites viability modelling 63 Table 19 Summary of Cheshire East commercial sites viability modelling 65 Table 20 Areas of nature conservation value within and adjacent to the Key Service Centres 71 Table 21 Areas of nature conservation value within and adjacent to the Local Service Centres 72 Table 22 Best and most versatile agricultural land adjacent to the Key Service Centres ........................................................... 78 Table 23 Best and most versatile agricultural land adjacent to the Local Service Centres ........................................................ 78 Table 24 Consideration of other material factors which have had an influence on the spatial distribution 82 Table 25 Green Belt Update Study Table 5-1: General Area Assessment Results 88 Table 26 Urban potential sites 105 Table 27 Edge of settlement sites 106 Table 28 Employment sites with potential for further consideration 107 Table 29 Settlement totals of employment sites with potential for further consideration .......................................................... 108 Table 30 Crewe 111 Table 31 Macclesfield 112 Table 32 Alsager 113 iii AECOM Spatial Distribution Support TC-iv Table 33 Congleton 113 Table 34 Handforth 114 Table 35 Knutsford 114 Table 36 Middlewich 115 Table 37 Nantwich 115 Table 38 Poynton 116 Table 39 Sandbach 116 Table 40 Wilmslow 117 Table 41 Local Service Centres 118 Table 42 Other Settlements and Rural Areas 119 Table 43 Option 6 Recommended approach 122 Figure 1 Distribution of Housing Development and Envisaged Delivery Timescales 20 Figure 2 Methodology diagram .................................................................................. 25 Figure 3 Approach to establishing rationale for new spatial distribution .................... 26 Figure 4 Residential sub market areas/Draft CIL charging zones ............................. 64 Figure 5 Commercial sub market areas/Draft CIL charging zones ............................ 66 Figure 6 General Extent of the Existing Green Belt Showing Sites Proposed to be removed .................................................................................................................... 85 Figure 7 Safeguarded land ........................................................................................ 86 iv AECOM Spatial Distribution Support ES-1 1 Executive Summary 1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 AECOM have been commissioned by Cheshire East Council to assist in considering the methodology and factors used to determine the spatial distribution of development to date, in the light of the Inspector’s Interim Views issued in November