Final Report | Version 27/07/2010
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SPAN-3 Spatial Perspectives at Nuts-3 Level Targeted Analysis 2013/2/6 Final Report | Version 27/07/2010 ESPON 2013 1 This report presents the Final results of a Targeted Analysis conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The partnership behind the ESPON Programme consists of the EU Commission and the Member States of the EU27, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Each partner is represented in the ESPON Monitoring Committee. This report does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the Monitoring Committee. Information on the ESPON Programme and projects can be found on www.espon.eu The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This basic report exists only in an electronic version. © ESPON & Politecnico di Milano, 2010. Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON Coordination Unit in Luxembourg. ESPON 2013 2 List of authors Politecnico di Milano Prof. Roberto Camagni Prof. Roberta Capello Dr. Antonio Affuso Dr. Ugo Fratesi Institut d’Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona Prof. Joan Trullen Dr. Rafael Boix Dr. Vittorio Galletto TERSYN Dr. Jacques Robert ESPON 2013 3 Foreword The main goals assigned to the project were interesting and quite ambitious: to show how the general ESPON approach to spatial analysis can be useful to local policy makers; to build new methodologies and tools which could provide support to policy makers for quantitative assessment and foresight; to provide new evidence on territorial relationships through the use of the above- mentioned quantitative tools; to develop stimulating partnership processes between scholars, local-regional policy makers and European functionaries in charge of EU regional policy. All this implied first the updating of the spatial scenarios developed by the ESPON 2006 3.2 project, using both a qualitative and a quantitative foresight methodology (namely the MASST model), and referring in particular to the post-crisis context, globalization processes and role of emerging economies, energy trends and new roles of rural areas. Secondly, it implied development and estimation of a new econometric tool for transferring the logics of the MASST model from the Nuts-2 level to Nuts-3: the sub- model: MAN-3 (Masst-at-Nuts-3), developed with reference to three countries: Spain, France and Italy. A quantitative foresight on all Nuts-3 regions was run on the basis of the new qualitative scenarios for these countries. Thirdly, the construction of new scenarios for the Barcelona Province (the Diputació, as Lead Stakeholder of the project) was envisaged, building on the general results achieved in the previous phases and on a selective analysis on the economic fabric, recent performance and internal structure of this area. Similar but less thorough reflections were developed on the other two stakeholder areas, namely on the Turin province and the Hérault Department. A final, relevant and consistent part of the research project is devoted to policy messages and recommendations, mainly focusing on the Latin Arc network territories and the Barcelona province. This huge task was accomplished in a short time span, namely 18 months, mainly thanks to the competence and the enthusiasm of all partners and stakeholders, and the continuous support of the ESPON CU. Interesting and intense interactions were organised with local officials and experts, mainly on the multiple aspects of possible policy strategies. Judging from our experience in this project, the intuition of a necessary linkage between the ESPON research work and the natural recipient of the research output, namely regional and local government institutions and policy makers – an intuition at the base of the ESPON « targeted analyses » - proved extremely fruitful and forward looking. ESPON 2013 4 Table of contents 0. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1. MAIN RESULTS, TRENDS, AND IMPACTS ............................................................ 2 1.1. QUALITATIVE SCENARIOS FOR EUROPEAN REGIONS .................................. 2 1.1.1. The Reference scenario ............................................................................................. 2 1.1.2. The Pro-active scenario (“Green Economy”) ........................................................... 4 1.1.3. The Defensive scenario ............................................................................................. 6 1.2. QUANTITATIVE SCENARIOS AT NUTS-2 LEVEL ............................................. 8 1.2.1. National results ......................................................................................................... 8 1.2.2. Regional results ....................................................................................................... 10 1.3. QUANTITATIVE SCENARIOS AT NUTS-3 LEVEL ........................................... 15 1.3.1. The MAN – 3 Sub-Model ....................................................................................... 15 1.3.1.a Scenario Assumptions ........................................................................................... 17 1.3.1.b Results at province level ....................................................................................... 18 1.3.2. Fine Tuning on the Latin Arc provinces ................................................................. 25 1.4. THE PROVINCE OF BARCELONA ....................................................................... 27 1.4.1. Basic facts on the Province of Barcelona ............................................................... 27 1.4.2. Barcelona, from industrial city to knowledge based metropolis ............................. 29 1.4.3. Macroeconomic performance until 2007 ................................................................ 30 1.4.4. Effects of the crisis: 2007-2009 .............................................................................. 31 1.4.5. Barcelona and the other Metropolitan European Areas .......................................... 31 2. OPTIONS FOR POLICY DEVELOPMENT ............................................................... 34 2.1. POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE LATIN ARC ........................................................... 34 2.1.1. General considerations and national policy tasks ................................................... 34 2.1.2. The concept of territorial capital and its relevance for regional policy strategies. 37 2.1.3. Local and regional policies: acting through “Territorial platforms”. ..................... 38 2.1.3.a Infrastructure platforms ......................................................................................... 39 2.1.3.b Knowledge platforms ............................................................................................ 39 2.1.3.c. Identity platforms ................................................................................................. 41 2.2. POLICY SCENARIOS FOR THE BARCELONA PROVINCE AND POSSIBLE INTRA-PROVINCE DEVELOPMENT ...................................................................... 42 2.2.1. Three scenarios for the Barcelona province: policies and ideas for the future ....... 42 2.2.2. Policy Indications for each scenario ...................................................................... 43 2.2.2a. Reference scenario ................................................................................................ 44 2.2.2b. Pro-Active Scenario .............................................................................................. 45 2.2.2c. Defensive Scenario ................................................................................................ 50 2.2.3. Growth rates estimation for intra-province territories ............................................ 50 2.2.4. Policy Indications for the Infra-Province Territories .............................................. 52 3. ISSUES FOR FURTHER ANALYTICAL WORK AND RESEARCH, DATA GAPS TO OVERCOME .......................................................................................................... 56 FIGURES Fig. 1.4.1. - Basic division of the province: Barcelona’s Metropolitan Strategic Plan, Metropolitan Arc, and Rest of the province .................................................................. 28 ESPON 2013 5 Fig. 1.4.2. - Networks of cities in the province of Barcelona ........................................... 29 Fig. 2.2.1. – Infrastructure projects and knowledge-intensive city networks ................... 53 MAPS Map 1.2.1. - Annual average regional GDP growth rates in the Reference scenario ...... 11 Map 1.2.2. - Annual average regional GDP growth rates: difference between the Pro- Active and the Reference scenario ................................................................................ 13 Map 1.2.3. - Annual average regional GDP growth rates: difference between the Defensive and the Reference scenario .......................................................................... 14 Map 1.3.1. Annual average GDP growth rates 2005-2025 in the Reference scenario ... 19 Map 1.3.2. - Annual average GDP growth rates 2005-2025; the Reference scenario in Latin Arc provinces ....................................................................................................... 21 Map 1.3.3. - Annual