The Pan Central and Eastern European Flood Model

The Pan Central and Eastern European Flood Model Guy Carpenter’s pan central and eastern European (Pan CEE) flood model responds to a need from regional insurers for better tools to assess and quantify potential loss scenarios across country borders.

In the last decade, some countries of the CEE region have suffered significant flood losses. As the portfolios of multi-national insurance and reinsurance companies extend to include greater numbers of countries in the region, there is an ever-increasing need for flood models to address the issue of between-country correlation in the discharge of river basins.

Flood Threat and the The CEE region has suffered significant flood losses in the recent past. The summer floods of 1997 Insurance Landscape affected both Poland and the Czech Republic, generating economic losses of around USD 3.7 billion and USD 1.99 billion, respectively. During the catastrophic European floods of August 2002, flooding of the rivers Danube and Elbe caused economic losses across the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany in the region of €14.4 billion, of which around €3.3 billion was insured1. Although Germany suffered the greatest losses, Austria and the Czech Republic were also hard hit. After this event, large parts of central Europe were under water for several days, resulting in enormous losses for the economy and local insurers, and to re-insurers world-wide.

Many reinsurance programmes protecting against catastrophic flood losses are now purchased on a regional, rather than per-country, basis. Losses on the scale of the 2002 European floods have highlighted the need for reliable tools to assess the frequency and severity of such potential losses for both ceding companies and re-insurers that participate in regional-scale natural catastrophe programmes. Indeed, the modelling of flood loss scenarios across many countries is now becoming a necessary part of the exposure analysis related to regional reinsurance purchases.

INSET ABOVE: River Vltava below the water dam of Orlík, Southern Bohemia.

RIGHT: River Lužnice, city of Soběslav, Southern Bohemia.

Image source: Miroslav Raudenský

1AXCO Insurance Reports Although commercial modelling companies have provided analytical tools with pan European coverage for the perils of windstorm and earthquake, less attention has been given to the development of pan-European flood models. By developing such a model for the CEE region, Guy Carpenter has responded to a demand for sophisticated modelling techniques to address the issue of flooding events that span several countries. In the CEE region, flood exposure clearly plays a significant role in driving the capacity and pricing of reinsurance programmes.

The Pan CEE Model Guy Carpenter’s Pan CEE model enables the probabilistic modelling of the flood peril in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Austria, Poland and Hungary. With the exception of Poland, these countries are part of the Danube river basin and therefore show significant hydrological correlation. These countries also have high rates of insurance penetration and increasing property values, resulting in a growing need for greater reinsurance capacities.

FIGURE 1: Undefended flood boundary map generated for the Miskolc city area (in grey) in Hungary. The map shows a 100- year return period flooding event of the river Sajó and the extent of the resultant flooded area (in light blue). This map shows the submerged portion of the city as a result of this event. Features of the Pan • Hydrological modelling covers all the main river catchments within each country. CEE Flood Model • Hazard module incorporates extensive river gauge station data and detailed digital terrain data. • Austria uses data from the HORA initiative (Austrian flood risk zoning project). • Hungary uses DTM data at a resolution of 5 x 5 m for highly exposed towns.

• Flood defences are modelled in each country. In Hungary, the exact location of all river flood defences is known (use of data from VITUKI - the Hungarian Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute).

• Stochastic event set contains events representative of flooding scenarios with return periods of up to 10,000 years.

• Built environment module uses Corine landuse data and national census information per country.

• Vulnerability functions have been created independently for each country and line of business, based on knowledge of the country’s building stock and value.

• Model input requires standard portfolio information. Detailed information regarding risk-type is desirable for best results.

• Model output • Standard occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curve with influence of deductibles and limits • Average annual loss for input portfolio • Spatial distribution of average annual loss • Modelling of reinsurance structure using Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk® platform

Table 1: Pan CEE Model AUSTRIA POLAND CZECH REP. SLOVAK REP. HUNGARY Specifications Rivers draining Rivers draining Rivers draining catchment area of catchment area of catchment area of Modelled Rivers Odra and Vistula >300km2. >300km2. Danube and Tisza ≥16.5km2 (HORA). Includes Elbe, Vltava Includes Danube, Vah Includes Danube basin and Morava and Hron Length of Modelled 27000 1700 4200 2100 4000 River Network (km) (HORA) DTM 10 m 10 m interpolated (horizontal 25 m 40 m 40 m (5 m in the five main (HORA) resolution) affected towns) Data for 143 river gauge 22 river gauge 59 river gauge 31 river gauge 55 river gauge Hydrological stations stations; discharge stations; discharge stations; discharge stations; discharge Modelling (HORA) 1951 - 2006 1950 - 2006 1960 - 2003 1960 - 2007 Detailed location and River Defence Protection standard Protection standard Protection standard Protection standard protection standard Modelling based on land use based on land use based on land use based on land use from VITUKI Equivalent to Equivalent to Equivalent to Equivalent to Equivalent to Event Set 10,000 years 10,000 years 10,000 years 10,000 years 10,000 years Based on Corine land Based on Corine land Based on Corine land Based on Corine land Based on Corine land Model Unit use database; use database; use database; use database; use database; Resolution resolution of 100m resolution of 100m resolution of 100m resolution of 100m resolution of 100m Uses Corine landuse Uses Corine landuse Uses Corine landuse Uses Corine landuse Uses Corine landuse Built Environment and national census and national census and national census and national census and national census Module databases databases databases databases databases Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential Modelled Lines of Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Business Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Municipal Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Municipal Modelled Coverage Building & contents Building & contents Building & contents Building & contents Building & contents Contacts: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC is the world’s leading risk and reinsurance specialist and a part of the Marsh & McLennan Companies. With 50 offices worldwide, Guy Carpenter creates and executes reinsurance solutions and makes available capital market solutions* for clients across the globe. The firm’s full breadth of services Dr. David Maréchal Paris Office includes line of business expertise in Agriculture; Aviation; Casualty Clash; Construction All Risk and Engineering All Risk; Excess and Umbrella; Life, Accident and Health; [email protected] Marine; Medical; Political Risk and Trade Credit; Professional Liability; Property; Retrocessional; Surety; Terrorism and Workers Compensation. GCFac®, our dedicated Tel: +33 1 56 76 48 40 global facultative reinsurance unit, provides the placement strategies, information and timely market access that are critical to obtaining strategic facultative reinsurance. In addition, Guy Carpenter’s Instrat® unit utilizes industry-leading quantitative skills and modeling tools that optimize the reinsurance decision-making process and help (Principal Model Developer) make the firm’s clients more successful. Guy Carpenter’s website address is www.guycarp.com.

Hamish Dowlen Munich/London Office *Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and [email protected] member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered Tel: +49 89 28 66 03 341 in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance (Principal Broker – CEE region) products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, Luboš Houska financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. [email protected] Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general information only. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we do Tel: +420 221 418 153 not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be general insurance/reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC makes no representations (Broking – Czech & Slovak markets) or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any historical, current or forward-looking statements. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC undertakes no obligation to Elzbieta Mazaraki-Gawronska update or revise publicly any historical, current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events or otherwise. elzbieta.mazaraki-gawronska@ guycarp.com Tel: +48 22 456 42 02 (Broking – Polish market)

Silke Huebner Munich Office [email protected] Tel: +49 89 28 66 03 333 (Principal Cat Modeller – CEE region)

Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd. Tower Place, London, EC3R 5BU Tel: +44 (0)20 7357 1000

For further information please visit our website at: www.guycarp.com