Update Unicredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, As
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s. Presentation to Covered Bond Investors - update Version September 2015 Content Executive Summary 3 Introduction 5 Financial Figures 11 Cover Pool & Rating 19 2 Executive Summary Clear signs of economic recovery in both the Czech Republic and Slovakia Solid banking market growth in both lending and deposits, keeping NPL ratios low UniCredit Czech Republic and Slovakia with excellent performance in H1 2015: Balance Sheet increased by 10.9% to 20.4 bln EUR (YtD) Customer Loans up by 4.9% to 12.9 bln EUR (YtD) Profit After Tax up yoy by 25.5% reaching 112 mln EUR, increased ROE up by 10.6% NPL ratio decreased by 0.8% to 5.03% yoy Cover Pool started to benefit from Slovak loan portfolio with additional volume of EUR 507.5 mln Newly issued Covered Bonds, i.e. 250 mln EUR public issue on eurobond market and approx. 560 mln EUR private placements for EIB (substitution for outstanding EIB loans) as a main driver of increase in Securities Issued by 52.5% yoy Moody's Cover Pool rating upgraded by 3 notches to Aa3 3 Content Executive Summary 3 Introduction 5 Financial Figures 11 Cover Pool & Rating 19 4 Introduction The Czech Republic & Slovakia – Macroeconomic trends: More GDP growth in Slovakia, more conservative fiscal policy in Czech Real GDP (yoy) Average CPI (yoy) Average unemployment rate (%) Public sector balance (% of GDP) 5 Source: UCBCS Economic Research Introduction The Czech Republic & Slovakia – FX market EUR/CZK The CNB commitment to keep EUR/CZK at or above 27 remains unchanged Since June 2015, EUR/CZK has been testing the floor at 27.0, forcing the CNB to repeatedly intervene on the market An exit from the intervention policy is expected not earlier than 2H16; a Swiss-like abrupt termination looks extremely unlikely 6 Source: UCBCS Economic Research Introduction The Czech Republic & Slovakia – Banking Market: Lending growth CZ market: Rise in corporate lending is genuine, uptick in retail dynamic rather technical SK market: Retail lending dynamic is firmly in double-digit, signs of pick-up also for corporate CZ market SK market 7 Note: CZ market - CZK equivalent, SK market – EUR equivalent, residents only Sources: CNB, NBS, UCBCS Economic Research Introduction The Czech Republic & Slovakia – Banking Market: Deposit growth CZ market: Corporate deposits capture increased economic activity, total dynamic suffers from an outflow of public sector deposits into the CNB SK market: Deposit dynamics for both corporate and retail are picking up CZ market SK market 8 Note CZ market - CZK equivalent, SK market – EUR equivalent, residents only Sources: CNB, NBS, UCBCS Economic Research Introduction The Czech Republic & Slovakia – Banking Market: Non-Performing Loans CZ market: NPLs are long-term drifting lower for both retail and corporate, recent uptick in retail is just technical SK market: Rise in corporate NPL seems to be solved, retail stagnating at low level CZ market SK market 9 Note: % of total loans in sector, residents only Sources: CNB, NBS, UCBCS Economic Research Content Executive Summary 3 Introduction 5 Financial Figures 11 Cover Pool & Rating 19 10 Financial Figures Balance sheet structure Consolidated Balance Sheet as of 30/06/2015 Major Trends Bln EUR Balance Sheet Customer Loans 20.4 20.4 +13.3% +7.4% Loans and receivables 2.9 2.8 Deposits from banks with banks 18.0 20.4 12.0 12.9 Loans and receivables 12.9 12.0 Deposits from customers with customers 2Q2014 2Q2015 2Q2014 2Q2015 Debt securities in issue Other Financial Assets 2.5 Other Liabilities 4.2 1.0 Customer Deposits Securities Issued Other Assets 2.1 Equity 0.4 +14.1% +52.5% Assets Liabilities 10.6 12.0 2.5 . Balance sheet proves the self funded position of the bank, with loans fully funded by 1.6 deposits and equity . Other Financial Assets mostly consist of CZ and SK government bonds and T-bills held as a liquidity reserve 2Q2014 2Q2015 2Q2014 2Q2015 . Loans with banks are composed of placements of excesses of liquidity within the group (UniCredit Bank Austria) and short term placements with the Czech National Bank . Deposits from banks are formed by long term funding from EIB and long term interbank refinancing lines to UniCredit Leasing . Balance Sheet dynamics are driven by the growth of customer business – loans and deposits . Higher growth of deposits than loans, together with increasing amount of Securities Issued (Covered Bonds) further enhances the structural liquidity position of the bank Methodological note: 11 In order to show growth rates neutralized from FX impacts, all periods are recalculated from CZK to EUR by 27.6 rate. Financial Figures Business development Loans to Customers Mln EUR, quarterly averages +12.5% . Dynamics in retail as well as in 13,258 13,574 corporate lending are expected to 12,066 12,179 12,640 2,739 remain high in 2015 due to the Retail - mortgage 2,526 2,639 2,317 2,415 511 economic recovery 504 502 471 498 1,955 1,913 Retail - other lending 1,937 1,890 1,910 . Despite a high lending growth rate, Corp - RE financing increases in deposit are fully covering 6,609 6,827 5,929 5,947 6,187 the liquidity need, even improving the Corp - other lending Leasing commercial funding gap 1,411 1,429 1,513 1,553 1,584 . Deposit strategy focused on 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 transactional accounts, with low interest rate sensitivity and with a Primary sources* from Customers positive impact on concentration risk +15.1% . Over 1 blnEUR of Primary sources 12,582 13,111 consist of bonds issued and held by 11,389 11,329 11,794 Retail & bank's customers as an alternative to 5,060 5,121 Private Banking 4,642 4,683 4,821 deposits * Deposit from customers + own issues held by non-banks Corporate 6,746 6,647 6,972 7,522 7,990 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Commercial Funding Gap 105.9% 107.5% 107.2% 105.4% 103.5% 12 Financial Figures Capital structure and ratios as of 30/06/2015 (consolidated) Mln EUR 11,549 Capital RWA 1,301 Retail 442 Mortgage 12,881 2,986 Corporates SME 3,779 Corporates Credit Risk Specialized Lending 11,549 1,885 Institutions 1,913 Government 372 213 Other 1,877 571 Tier I Capital Market Risk 488 Operational Risk Provisions minus 788 . Basel III regulatory limit set by regulator at Expected Loss 36 CVA 56 14% including capital conservation buffer and local SIFI . Capital adequacy ratio increased from 14.35% at the end of 2014 due to profit retention (55% of net profit was retained – 100 mln EUR) Capital adequacy ratio: 14,85% 13 Financial Figures Profitability Mln EUR ytd Revenues Net Interest Net Non-interest +9.7% . Successful business strategy with the help of +5,8% +16.8% economic recovery in both countries supports the 278 304 growth of revenues, with NII growing substantially 179 189 due to business volume growth 99 115 . Net Non-interest Income increased yoy on a good result in proprietary trading 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 . Increase of Operating Costs influenced by impairment release of 9 mln EUR in 2014. Excluding this effect Operating Costs HR Costs Other Admin Costs the growth of the OPEX is 4.5%. +12.3% +3.4% +6.2% . Risk costs improved substantially thanks to focused risk management and with the support of economic growth . PBT, PAT show significant yoy growth -56 -58 -59 -63 -111 -125 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 GOP Loans loss Provisions PBT PAT +7.9% -33.1% +30.3% +25.5% 167 180 141 -28 108 112 -41 89 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 14 Financial Figures Performance ratios ROE Cost/Income Ratio Revenues on avg RWA 2.7 -0.4 -1.0 1.9 0.3 -0.2 11.0% 10.6% 40.0% 39.0% 40.9% 4.6% 4.9% 4.7% 8.4% 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 . ROE increased to double digit figures thanks to growth of net profit . Cost/Income Ratio in 2Q14 was effected by one-off impairment release, excluding this effect the ratio was at 43%, hence improving thanks to over-proportional growth of revenues over costs 15 Financial Figures Risk management and risk ratios NPLs NPL ratio Coverage Ratio Cost of Risk . Cost of Risk decreased thanks to -7.7% +2.64 successful write-backs, which -0.80 -0.13 also led to decreases in NPL 727 5.84% 54.1% 0.34% 671 5.03% 51.5% volume and ratio 0.21% . Coverage Ratio growing further above the strategic target of 50%. In terms of segment structure, 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 2Q14 2Q15 proportion of SME increased due to re-segmentation between MID-SME in Slovakia . Exposure by industry without Exposure by segment Exposure by industry significant changes yoy Leasing Financial Institutions Others Private 2.3% Individuals 11.5% 15.0% Large Corp 20.8% 24.1% Leasing Retail 11.5% 22.7% 2.3% Retail 15.8% 2.6% RE Construction 2.7% 19.0% Automotive 3.2% 13.8% 2.3% Mid Corp Transport 4.8% 9.9% 4.1% 6.7% 4.6% RE Services Energy FVE* SME Wholesale Financial 16 * Photovoltaic power stations Financial Figures NPL ratios in real estate portfolios IPRE CZ Retail Mortgage CZ Retail Mortgage SK ) R +0.3% -4.2% +11.3% +7.0% +15.8% +7.8% U E n l 1,779 1,785 1,556 1,154 1,709 1,455 1,071 m 1,307 ( 925 s n a o l f o e m u l o V 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 +0.25 -0.28 -0.13 -0.41 -0.06 -0.11 6.9% 6.7% 6.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.1% 1.7% o i t a r L P N 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 4Q13 4Q14 2Q15 .