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SPECIAL REPORT USA: The year ahead Madrid, February 2015 BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO USA: THE YEAR AHEAD 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 2. PRESSURE FROM THE FAR RIGHT Only weeks into 2015, clear examples are already emerging of the 3. THE ANTI-LAME DUCK PRESIDENCY major dynamics we can expect to unfold throughout this important 4. DECISION 2016 year in Washington. The U.S. Congress returned to work after the New Year with the Republican Party now controlling both the AUTHORS House and Senate for the first time since 2006. That presents the LLORENTE & CUENCA GOP both the opportunity to more easily fight the Democratic president’s agenda, but also the challenge of showing the country that they are responsible enough to govern at a moment when approval ratings of Congress are at historic lows. At the same time, President Obama has begun his final two years in office eager to prove that he is still relevant despite the major losses his Party suffered in November’s mid-term elections, and facing the reality that attention is already shifting to those trying to succeed him in the White House. Both the President’s dealings with Congress and the emerging primaries for president are beginning to show the internal challenges both parties will have in balancing the interests of their base constituencies while trying to work across party lines to advance substantive policy. The upcoming presidential primaries hold the greatest potential for surprises in 2015. Both parties have open primaries and a legitimate opportunity to retain or recover the White House. While Republicans begin 2015 with energy and momentum from their major victories in November, they also have no clear front-runner for the Party’s nomination and a new level of pressure and expectation of their leadership in Congress that could affect their candidates. The recent exit of their 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, without endorsing anyone shows that whoever emerges will have to earn the nomination through a hard-fought primary. The problem for Democrats, on the other hand, is that they only have one major potential candidate in former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Widely embraced as the front-runner and favored candidate by many key voices in the Democratic Party, Clinton can potentially benefit from not having a challenger and may even delay a campaign announcement until this summer. However, not having to run against anyone and not having any Democratic candidate debates could work against her in the harsh spotlight throughout the fall. In the foreign policy arena, this year Republicans will continue to try to define the President as “leading from behind,” a slogan they’ve used regularly to question his positions on everything from the conflicts in the Middle East to tensions with Russia. With control of both chambers 2 USA: THE YEAR AHEAD of Congress, they’ll be more between Republican leaders and aggressive in trying to rehash the White House to keep the old battles, and hold very public U.S. government open. Those hearings on new ones. Looking members, favorites of the Tea at the Western Hemisphere, Party, are also seeking to be the U.S. Congress will debate more aggressive in fighting the the President’s move to restore President’s executive actions on diplomatic relations with Cuba, immigration and continuing to “Economic concerns in with hardliners trying to stop try to dismantle the Affordable Europe will also be on funding for the implementation Care Act, known as Obamacare Washington’s radar, but of any changes while a collection throughout 2015. of other interests work to further attention on terrorism scale down the embargo through The Tea Party’s early challenge following the attacks in legislation to allow open travel to Boehner led to concessions Paris is more likely to and trade. Economic concerns immediately, evident in that the dominate the political in Europe will also be on House of Representatives began landscape” Washington’s radar, but attention the 114th Congress considering on terrorism following the attacks legislation to fund the Department in Paris is more likely to dominate of Homeland Security (DHS) with the political landscape, as will a bill that would eliminate the the ongoing threat posed by the President’s executive actions on Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and immigration. The Republican bill tensions with Russia. However, the would: hacking of Sony and the recent hacking of Central Command’s • Stop the measures the social media accounts, together President announced in with consumer concerns, will November affecting 5 mean that cybersecurity takes million immigrants, on a much bigger profile in the coming year. • Stop the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program We’ve prepared this memo to that began in 2012 to give break these issues down in greater DREAMers, young people who detail in anticipation of what were brought to the United promises to be an exciting and States as minors by their fluid year. parents, an opportunity to work and study. 2. PRESSURE FROM THE FAR • It would also restrict the RIGHT prosecutorial discretion measures the Department Before he could start the year, of Homeland Security U.S. House Speaker John Boehner established throughout the was already being challenged entire Obama Administration by far-right conservative House Republicans unhappy with • And restart the Secure the U.S. $1.1 billion spending Communities program bill negotiated in December that required information 3 USA: THE YEAR AHEAD sharing from local and state bill to raise the definition of a police agencies with federal full-time employee with the goal immigration officials, and of undermining the employer require those local officials mandate under Obamacare, to hold immigrants until which affects how many people immigration officers pick will get health care through their them up. employer. It’s only the first of many likely attempts in this new “The White House has Even if this bill fails to get to Congress to try to undermine already confirmed that the President’s desk, the far- the health care reform law that the President would right of the Republican Party will defined the President’s first term, continue to look for opportunities and is evidence that the Senate’s veto the immigration throughout 2015 to undermine the Republican majority will also bill if it includes the President’s executive actions, and be aggressive in trying to erase measures to stop his are signaling they don’t believe Obama’s legacy achievements executive actions” delaying the Department of this year. Homeland Security’s budget is a real problem. They’ll also continue If these types of measures do pass to try to roll back the President’s both chambers, the President is agenda in other areas like health ready to veto them, a scenario care and banking regulations. likely to repeat itself throughout 2015 on many issues. The White The battle lines over immigration, House has already confirmed that however, expose the fault lines the President would veto the inside the Republican Party immigration bill if it includes the between their leadership and measures to stop his executive the far-right, and also between actions. Ironically, the Republican the leadership in the House strategy of obstruction has also and Senate. The Republican emboldened the President, who leadership in the Senate will also isn’t waiting for Congress, and try to reverse the President’s is already driving an aggressive policy achievements in a number agenda for the coming year and of areas, but will be more introducing a budget much more tempered by the reality that to the left than his past and more most legislation requires 60 votes centrist approaches in earlier to overcome a filibuster. On years. That dynamic increases the immigration, for example, Senate likelihood of ongoing and tense Republicans have introduced a battles between the President and similar bill to the one in the House Congress throughout the year. but it is separate legislation from the larger bill funding DHS. Senate leadership, however, has 3. THE ANTI-LAME DUCK designated a staunch opponent PRESIDENCY of immigration reform to lead their immigration subcommittee, After the Democratic Party’s so any real progress on the issue heavy losses in November’s mid- this year is unlikely. At the same term elections, President Barack time, the Senate is moving on a Obama responded with an 4 USA: THE YEAR AHEAD aggressive agenda that includes earlier, he is a strong opponent using executive authority where of reform. Congress has either failed or refused to act. Within weeks On Cuba, the incoming Chairman of the elections, the President of the Senate Foreign Relations had announced a major set of Committee, Republican Bob actions on immigration reform, Corker, said recently that the and a historic move to re- embargo has been ineffective “The incoming establish diplomatic relations and promised hearings on the Chairman of the Senate with Cuba. Both will become the President’s announcement to Foreign Relations focus of attempts in Congress to restore relations. That’s a much stop him. better tone than the one from Committee, Republican the Democrat who preceded him Bob Corker, said Ironically, those actions may as Chairman of that committee, recently that the also result in Congress taking Bob Menendez, who is Cuban- embargo has been the two issues seriously enough American and is opposed to any ineffective” to move on legislation they changes in Cuba policy. The might have otherwise ignored. President’s bold move creates an On immigration, moderate opportunity to work with both Republicans are looking for Democrats and Republicans, many alternatives that can help them driven by agriculture and business address their sinking support interests, and potentially achieve among the nation’s growing Latino legislation that goes further than electorate, while helping them he can on his own.

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