Redbubble Limited 1Q19 Beat (>10%), Capital Raise And
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This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized publication, disclosure or other distribution is strictly prohibited. Redbubble Limited Software and Services Owen Humphries | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | Australian Equity Research +61.2.9263.2702 21 November 2018 BUY Raising Target Price unchanged PRICE TARGET A$2.25↑ from A$2.20 1Q19 beat (>10%), capital raise and Price (21-Nov) A$1.30 Ticker RBL-ASX transformational acquisition of Teepublic Redbubble (RBL) reported a positive 1Q19a result (GPAPA +11% beat) and completed 52-Week Range (A$): 0.61 - 2.07 Market Cap (A$M): 329 a A$60.6m institutional placement at A$1.50ps to fund the horizontal acquisition of Dividend /Shr (AUc): 0.0 TeePublic (www.teepublic.com) for US$41m (A$57.7m, $49.3m upfront, $8.4m deferred Dividend Yield (%) : 0.0 until FY21). We reiterate our BUY rating and increase our DCF-based TP to A$2.25 (from Enterprise Value (A$M): 283 A$2.20). Cash (A$M): 46.3 Long-Term Debt (A$M): 0.0 We consider the transaction transformational as it a) scales RBL to being the global leader serving independent artists (FY20 GTV >$450m, gross profit >$130m); b) FYE Jun 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E spring loads the business into profitability (EBITDA FY19: $6m, FY20: $17m); and c) Sales (A$M) 182.8 274.8↑ 364.9↑ 451.9 bolsters the balance sheet into a strong net cash position (FY19 $32m, FY20 $41m). Previous - 237.6 296.9 - The company reaffirmed its FY19e guidance of constant currency revenue/GPAPA Gross Profit (A$M) 63.9 98.9 130.6 161.9 growth of >30% and opex growth of +19%. Operating EBITDA (excluding TeePublic) is EBITDA (A$M) (3.8) 5.8↑ 16.5↑ 31.6 expected to be in the range of $2m-$4m with FCF <-$2m. Previous - 3.3 10.7 - Earnings revisions: Our FY19, FY20 and FY21 gross profit increases +19%, +26% and Net Income Adj (1.3)↑ 6.3↑ +27%, primarily driven by the integration of Teepublic into our earnings forecasts. (A$M) (6.5) 17.7 Previous - (3.1) 2.4 - • Teepublic is currently the fastest growing on-demand ecommerce marketplace for independent artists and generated FY18 revenue, gross profit and EBITDA of A$35.9m EPS Adj&Dil (3.13) (0.46)↑ 2.3↑ 6.4 (AUc) (FY17 A$26.9m, +33% growth), $14.1m (FY17 $10.5m, +34%) and $4.6m (FY17 Previous - (1.38) 1.1 - $4.0m) respectively. TeePublic's revenue is predominately sourced in the US (85% rev.) Net Debt (Cash) (31)↓ (41)↓ (A$M) (21) (51) with T-shirts (71% rev) the major contributor. TeePublic has experienced stellar revenue Previous - (21) (25) - CAGR since inception in 2013 with growth accelerating in 1Q19 as pro-forma revenue EV/EBITDA (x) (81.1) 51.5 17.5 8.8 and gross profit increased +57% and +65% respectively. 2.2 • The acquisition of Teepublic builds scale across artists, content, products, fulfilment 2 and technology, however we identify a number of synergy benefits through various P&L line items. These include: revenue (expand TeePublic brand into new geographies 1.8 and languages [French, Spanish, German], launch Teepublic app, expand product 1.6 offering to 66 [currently 45], artist content [31k artwork]); COGS (volume discounts from fulfillers as acq. doubles the size of RBL's T-shirt business in the US, fulfiller 1.4 consolidation), marketing (optimised paid search, own category key words) and opex 1.2 (streamlined operations, legal, tech, finance etc.). We expect these to be additive to 1 revenue/earnings in the medium term, however our forecasts do not incorporate any synergy benefits at this stage. 0.8 • RBL released a positive 1Q19a quarterly report (+11% GPAPA beat) which Jul-18 Jan-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Apr-18 demonstrated continued acceleration in GTV (+41%, constant currency [cc] +31%), Feb-18 Sep-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Nov-18 Aug-18 May-18 RBL gross profit (+43%, cc +34%) and GPAPA (+42%, cc +33%). Growth was aided Source: FactSet by a) successful back to school campaigns in the Northern Hemisphere (wall art, homewares, stickers); b) continued elevated growth in its European markets Priced as of close of business 21 November 2018 (Germany/Spain >+66%, France +96%); and c) an uplift in key categories such as Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited has received a fee stickers (+71% growth) and t-shirts (+34% growth, 42% of GTV). Key marketplace as a Joint Lead Manager and Underwriter to the Redbubble metrics remained buoyant with customers (+32% vs. pcp), selling artists (+33%) and Limited capital raising announced on 24 October 2018. website traffic (+29%) all improving during the quarter. Continued on next page... Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 7 of this document. This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized publication, disclosure or other distribution is strictly prohibited. Redbubble Limited Raising Target Price Importantly Mobile is rapidly becoming a larger proportion of group GTV (Mobile cont.: 36%, Desktop 64%) and increased +61% in 1Q19 (Desktop +29%). Importantly, mobile conversion rates improved +13% during the period. The growth in RBL’s mobile channel should aid an acceleration in overall group GTV as it becomes a larger source of website traffic. On the conference call the company highlighted that it has experienced some softness in organic search traffic due to Google changing its algorithms. While expected to be short lived, it may have an impact on organic/unpaid growth (~55% of group GTV) into the seasonal peak retailing period (Oct/Nov). We have factored this into our forecasts with FY19 GTV growth of +31% versus 1Q19 of +42% and paid marketing growth exceeding GTV growth. Operating leverage is a clear focus for investors given the growth in GPAPA (1Q19 +42%). RBL guided to opex growth materially below revenue growth for the remainder of FY19 (2Q-4Q revenue growth +30%, opex growth +15%). We note RBL’s opex has been relatively stable since 2Q18 (2Q18: $13m, 3Q18: $13m, 4Q18: $15m, 1Q19: $14m). In our view, the acquisition and associated capital injection shifts the mindset of RBL from managing the business to breakeven to managing it for long term growth. We expect RBL to invest in expanding languages, geographies, products and marketing while also investing in its tech stack to deepen its moat and barriers to new entrants. While we forecast profitable growth over the medium term, we foresee RBL accelerating its growth investment to take advantage of the large and disruptive globally opportunity. RBL trades at a material discount to its global high growth marketplace peers (EV/GPAPA -80% discount to Etsy [17.5x, RBL 3.5x]) and we expect a multiple re- rating as the company scales into profitability during FY19-FY20. Despite some potential softness following the Google algorithm change, we expect investor sentiment to improve as conviction increases in RBL’s/our FY20 estimates (GTV: >A$450m, gross profit: >$130m, EBITDA ~$17m, [>50% growth], cash balance: >$40m). After incorporating the accretive acquisition and dilution from the equity raise (-19%) into our forecasts, our price target increases to A$2.25ps (previously $2.20ps). Figure 1: Pro-forma Revenue and group EBITDA (fully consolidated for FY17-FY19) A$m Pro-forma Revenue ($Am) Group EBITDA ($Am) 600 551 CGAu est. 50 CGAu est. Redbubble 43.6 500 111 TeePublic 452 40 31.6 85 400 365 30 440 66 20 16.5 300 290 51 367 219 10 5.8 200 36 299 168 0.3 2.0 27 239 0 115 183 100 71 -3.8 49 141 -10 -6.0 -4.8 28 -8.2 0 -20 FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates 2 Buy unchanged Target Price A$2.25 from A$2.20 | 21 November 2018 Software and Services 2 This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized publication, disclosure or other distribution is strictly prohibited. Redbubble Limited Raising Target Price Figure 2: Financial forecasts for RBL RedBubble Limited $ 1.30 Profit & Loss ($m) - Jun YE 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Valuation ratios 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Gross Transaction Value 175.4 231.3 343.8 454.5 562.4 EPS (cps) -2.0 -3.1 -0.5 2.3 6.4 Sales Revenue 141.0 182.8 274.8 364.9 451.9 EPS Growth (%) nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf Gross Profit 50.1 63.9 98.9 130.6 161.9 Enterprise Value ($m) - pro-forma301.4 308.2 297.8 288.3 278.2 Paid marketing -12.2 -16.8 -25.5 -35.1 -42.6 EV/Revenue 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 GPAPA (GP post mkting) 37.9 47.1 73.5 95.5 119.3 EV/Gross Profit 6.0 4.8 3.0 2.2 1.7 Opex -42.7 -50.9 -67.7 -79.1 -87.7 EV/GPAPA 8.0 6.5 4.1 3.0 2.3 EBITDA -4.8 -3.8 5.8 16.5 31.6 EV / EBITDA (x) -62.8 -81.1 51.5 17.5 8.8 D & A -6.5 -7.8 -8.7 -9.3 -9.5 EV / EBIT (x) -26.6 -26.6 -122.7 40.2 12.6 EBIT -11.3 -11.6 -2.4 7.2 22.1 FCF yield (%) -1.9% 0.4% 3.8% 5.7% 9.0% Net Interest Expense 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 DPS (cps) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPBT -10.8 -11.2 -1.8 8.0 23.1 Tax expense 6.7 4.7 0.6 -1.7 -5.4 Balance Sheet ratios 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F NPAT (Normalised) -4.2 -6.5 -1.3 6.3 17.7 Net Debt (cash) -27.8 -21.1 -31.5 -40.9 -51.1 Non-recurring -3.6 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTA per share ($) 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.14 NPAT (Reported) -7.8 -10.1 -1.3 6.3 17.7 Price / NTA (x) 10.9 16.7 15.6 12.1 9.4 Shares on issue 208.4 208.4 253.3 253.3 253.3 Gross Profit Margin (%) 35.5% 35.0% 36.0% 35.8% 35.8% EFPOWA (m) 203.7 208.9 275.0 275.0 275.0 GPAPA margin 26.9% 25.8% 26.7% 26.2% 26.4% EBITDA Margin (%) -3.4% -2.1% 2.1% 4.5% 7.0% Interim Analysis 2H16A 1H17A 2H17A 1H18A 2H18A EBIT Margin (%) -8.0% -6.3% -0.9% 2.0% 4.9% GTV 62.6 98.6 76.8 129.8 101.5 NPAT Margin (%) -2.9% -3.6% -0.5% 1.7% 3.9% Revenues 52.3 78.7 62.3 102.3 80.5 Gross Profit 18.5 28.3 21.8 35.3 28.6 Cash Flow ($m) - Jun YE 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F EBIT -6.7 -4.1 -7.2 -1.3 -10.3 Operating EBITDA -4.8 -3.8 5.8 16.5 31.6 EBIT margin (%) -12.7% -5.3% -11.5% -1.2% -12.8% - Interest & Tax Paid 0.6 0.9 1.2 -0.9 -4.3 +/- change in Work.