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Embracer Group Reason: Estimate Changes Company Sponsored Research End of Quarter Game Sales Update Not Rated

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Embracer Group Reason: Estimate Changes Company Sponsored Research End of Quarter Game Sales Update Not Rated Equity Research - 24 June 2020 19:10 CET Embracer Group Reason: Estimate changes Company sponsored research End of quarter game sales update Not rated Q1’20/21e: Sales SEK 1,648m, adj. EBIT SEK 431m Estimate changes (%) Current FY adj. EBIT up 9.7% on strong new game sales 2020e 2021e 2022e SOTP fair value of SEK 104-141 (93-125) per share Sales 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% EBIT (rep) 54.5% 0.0% 0.0% Estimates up on strong contribution from Games segment EPS (rep) 48.3% 0.0% 0.0% Our research suggests that Embracer will enjoy both strong sales from Source: ABG Sundal Collier its new releases and back catalogue in Q1’20/21e. We therefore raise Share price (SEK) 24/06/2020 125.0 our contribution from the Games segment by ~10%, from SEK 1,135m to SEK 1,248m, and it now comprises 75.7% of net sales in Q1e, the IT, Sweden highest since the Koch Media acquisition in ’18. Ultimately, this leads to EMBRACB.ST /EMBRACB ST Q1e sales of SEK 1,648m, a gross margin of 56.3%, EBITDA of SEK 659m and adj. EBIT of SEK 431m. MCap (SEKm) 46,544 MCap (EURm) 4,429.9 Q1’20/21e revisions: Deep Silver, Coffee Stain, Saber Net debt (EURm) -146 Following our end of quarter game sales update, we have adjusted our contribution from the Games segment in Q1’20/21e. We keep our top- No. of shares (m) 372 line estimate for THQ Nordic at SEK 350m, as Desperados III has Free float (%) 60.0 performed slightly below our estimates and SpongeBob Rehydrated will Av. daily volume (k) 942.2 only contribute for one week. However, we increase our Q1 estimates for Deep Silver from SEK 450m to SEK 515m, on the back of a stronger Next event Q1 report: 13 Aug than expected performance by Saints Row the Third Remastered and continued solid back catalogue sales from Metro Exodus. For Coffee Performance Stain, we increase our revenue estimate from SEK 85m to SEK 108m, as 800 Satisfactory on Steam has performed well above our estimates, further 700 fuelled by a strong launch for Deep Rock Galactic. We also increase our 600 estimates for Saber Interactive from SEK 250m to SEK 275m, as World 500 400 War Z GOTY Edition performed above our expectations. We keep our 300 SEK 400m estimate for Partner Publishing intact. 200 100 EV/adj. EBIT of 25.2x-16.1x, SOTP of SEK 104-141 per share 0 Apr 18 Apr 18 Oct 19 Apr 19 Oct 20 Apr Oct 17 Oct Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun Jun 19 Jun Feb 18 Feb 20 Feb Feb 19 Feb Dec 17 Dec 18 Aug 18 Dec 19 Aug 19 Dec We have updated our three SOTP valuations, based on our current FY 17 Aug EBITDA estimates, which now suggest a fair value range of SEK 104- Embracer Group OMX STH PI 141 per share when we apply a range of relevant peer multiples. The 1m 3m 12m increase is due to 1) our increased current FY EBITDA estimates and 2) Absolute (%) 4.5 47.1 62.3 because we think that player engagement will have increased OMX STH PI (%) 8.0 36.5 5.9 permanently in the new steady state following COVID-19. In addition, we Source: FactSet find that Embracer is trading at an EV/adj. EBIT of 25.2x-16.1x for 20/21e-22/23e based on our new estimates. Lead analyst: Jesper Birch-Jensen Stefan Knutsson 2020e 2021e 2022e SEKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e P/E (x) -431.6 215.7 112.4 Sales 5,754 5,249 7,533 9,035 9,545 P/E adj (x) -431.6 215.7 112.4 EBITDA 1,593 1,821 2,673 3,392 3,820 P/BVPS (x) 3.79 3.72 3.60 EBITDA margin (%) 27.7 34.7 35.5 37.5 40.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 13.0 11.3 EBIT adj 575 345 -81 312 580 EV/EBIT adj (x) -558.8 141.3 74.7 EBIT adj margin (%) 10.0 6.6 -1.1 3.4 6.1 EV/sales (x) 6.00 4.87 4.53 Pretax profit 545 409 -105 292 560 ROE adj (%) -1.1 1.7 3.3 EPS rep 4.22 0.91 -0.29 0.58 1.11 EPS adj 4.22 0.91 -0.29 0.58 1.11 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 1.2 2.5 1.6 Sales growth (%) 1,033.7 -8.8 43.5 19.9 5.6 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 1.2 2.5 1.6 EPS growth (%) 140.4 -78.5 -131.9 300.1 91.9 Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Embracer Group Opportunities Risks A large part of the IP portfolio is still not generating any Despite Embracer Group’s broad portfolio, there are risks income, but the pipeline of game launches is strong, associated with larger title releases as they have a including a few AAA titles. Together with a strong relatively large impact on sales right after launch. management with a clear M&A agenda, Embracer Group is Moreover, disappointing releases or reviews could dent well suited for future value-adding acquisitions, which end-customer enthusiasm and hurt the company's could mean securing more IPs and portfolio expansion. finances, especially during the launch period. Delays in The acquisition of Koch Media further adds new planned and ongoing gaming projects could adversely distribution/publishing channels, an opportunity to reach affect the group’s profitability. Acquiring established but further and wider with the current portfolio and expected temporarily underperforming gaming brands and gradually pipeline, aligning them for additional growth. improving them increases the potential risk of performing below market expectations. Games segment breakdown, 2019, SEKm Business area breakdown, 2019, SEKm 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 0 THQ Nordic Deep Silver Coffee Stain Partner Owned titles Publishing titles Physical sales Digital sales Publishing/Film Sales Sales Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.5 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description Embracer Group acquires, develops and publishes PC and 2,500 200 console games for the global gaming market. Its core 150 business model consists of acquiring established gaming 2,000 brands and gradually improving them. Much of Embracer 100 Group’s soul stems from entrepreneur, founder and CEO 1,500 Lars Wingefors, who at the age of 16 founded Nordic 50 Games, which we today associate with Embracer Group. 1,000 0 The game changer came in 2013 when most of today’s brand portfolio was acquired from THQ Inc’s insolvency. At 500 -50 the start of 2018, the company acquired Koch Media, which focuses on game development and gives Embracer 0 -100 Group a larger publishing business. quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 24 June 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Embracer Group Estimate changes In terms of Q1’20/21e top-line estimate changes, we’ve elected to keep our THQ Nordic estimate of SEK 350m, seeing as Desperados III has performed slightly below our expectations in terms of copies sold. For Deep Silver, we increase our top-line estimate from SEK 450m to SEK 515m, mainly due to the stronger than expected performance of Saint’s Row the Third Remastered. For Coffee Stain, we increase our top-line estimate from SEK 85m to SEK 108m, due to the very strong performance of Satisfactory on Steam, and Deep Rock Galactic on Steam and Xbox One. Lastly, we increase our revenue estimate for Saber Interactive from SEK 250m to SEK 275m, as the Game of the Year Edition of World War Z has performed above our expectations. ABGSC estimate changes, 20/21e-22/23e, (SEKm) Estimate changes (SEKm) Old forecast New forecast Change Net sales 2020/21e 2021/22e 2022/23e 2020/21e 2021/22e 2022/23e 2020/21e 2021/22e 2022/23e Games THQ Nordic 1500.0 1650.0 1750 1550.0 1650.0 1750.0 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% Games Deep Silver 2000.0 3200.0 3300 2190.0 3200.0 3300.0 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Games Coffee Stain 280.0 310.0 330 317.5 310.0 330.0 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Games Saber Interactive 950.0 1075.0 1215 975.0 1075.0 1215.0 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% Games Total 4730.0 6235.0 6595 5032.5 6235.0 6595.0 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% Partner Publishing/Film 2500.0 2800.0 2950 2500.0 2800.0 2950.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Group 7230.0 9035.0 9545 7532.5 9035.0 9545.0 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% COGS -3433.0 -4122.7 -4150.0 -3558.3 -4122.7 -4150.0 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% Gross profit 3797.1 4912.3 5395.0 3974.2 4912.3 5395.0 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Capitalized costs & other income 1398.6 1687.3 2052.2 1418.0 1687.3 2052.2 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Operating costs -2679.9 -3207.4 -3627.1 -2719.4 -3207.4 -3627.1 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% EBITDA 2515.8 3392.1 3820.0 2672.8 3392.1 3820.0 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Depreciation & amortization -2693.6 -3080.5 -3240.5 -2753.6 -3080.5 -3240.5 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Adj.
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