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Early Warning and Response Bulletin

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Early Warning and Response Bulletin Early Warning Bulletin Covers the period of March 16-31, 2015 EWRThe 6th round Directorate, of PSNP has been DRMFSS, 88% completed MoA and was dispatched in Somalia www.alone. Thedppc.gov.et 7th round of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR BELG 2015 Based on the global, regional and local pre-seasonal indicators as well as their dynamical/statistical predictions, the following conclusions can be drawn Late onset and near normal cessation of Belg season Positive SST over the Mediterranean Sea This condition may generate interactive weather activities mainly over the Rift Valley and adjoining Regions Anomalous cold SST conditions are predicted both over southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans Belg season is less likely to be within the wetter side as southerly moisture flow will be limited to the Equatorial and southern Hemisphere of East Africa Near normal rain performance is therefore predicted along the major portions of Rift Valley and the adjoining escarpments, and south/southeast Ethiopia Due to the nature of Belg Season and negative influences from the aforementioned regional systems, dry spells may be more pronounced than the wet spells In general, the seasonal rain predicted for much of the Belg growing areas of the country will be close to normal with a possibility of Source:-NMA below normal rainfall anomalies at some places. Weather outlook and its possible impact for the next fifteen days (16 – 31 March 2015) Under normal circumstance, the Belg rain producing systems strengthen towards second half of the month of March and as a result widespread rain is a normal feature for most Belg benefiting areas. Therefore normally at this time of the year different areas of northeastern, eastern, central and southern parts of the country suppose to have better and widespread rainfall. Pursuant to NMA weather analysis the Belg rain producing systems will get more strength as compared to that of the previous first half of March 2015 particularly towards the second half of the second decade of March 2015. Therefore better rainfall is anticipated over some parts of Belg growing areas and the expected situation would have positive contribution to improve the water stress condition which was persisted since the on-set of Belg season 2015. Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected] [2] Generally, during the upcoming second half of March (16 – 31 March 2015) near normal rainfall distribution is anticipated over eastern Amhara, western and eastern Oromiya, SNNPR and Gambela. Moreover central and southern Oromiya will have slight rain shower in relation to the gradual development of cloud cover at places. Consequently this situation would have positive impact on season’s agricultural activities to some extent particularly for land preparation and sowing activities for long cycle crops like sorghum and maize over the aforementioned areas where the activities are under question. Therefore the ongoing land preparation and sowing activities of long cycle crops should be strengthen in appropriate manner in order to use the expected limited moisture efficiently. On the contrary sunny and dry spell is expected over the remaining parts of the country with increasing maximum temperature over the rest of the country. Hence, attention should be given at the time of using fire around barns and near dried grass and bushes in order to avoid fire outbreak. Areas needing attention based on the current Regional Situation Report Oromiya Fire Hazard Pursuant to the report made by the Regional Early Warning (EW) Bureau of Oromiya some areas exhibited fire hazard due to the prolonged dry and sunny situation persisted over the areas. Among the reporting areas Bale Zone (Guba, Dinsho, Gololcha and Guradamole), South West Shewa (Tole Woreda) and West Hararge (Tulo Wereda), areas which were experienced serious fire hazard, attracted the attention of Regional as well as the Federal EW office. Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water:- Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been reported over West Shewa Zone(Adama, Fentale and Jido Combolcha), West Arsi Zone(Shala, Siraro, Shashemene, Arsi Negelle and Kofele lowlands of Bale Zone, West Shewa (Dendi, Ejera, Toki and Kutaya), West Harargea(Darolabu, Hawi Gudina, Gemechis and Adeabulto), Arsi Zone, (Ziway Dugda, Merti Jeju and Dodota). As a result livestock migration in search of pasture and drinking water has been reported from stressed areas to the areas with better performance. For instance: - From Gasera Wereda to Harena Buluki; in case of West Harargie animals migrated to Duguta river. Livestock body condition:- Livestock body condition was not in a good shape in the lowlands of Borna (10 Woredas) due to the persisted water shortage over the areas. Thus the Regional office tried to provide some amount of livestock feed to the affected areas. However as per the regional report it was not sufficient to settle the problem efficiently. SNNPR Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water:- Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been reported over the lowlands and resulted in livestock migration over South Omo(Hamer, Bena Tsmai, Dasenech and Yangatom), to the nearest river banks. In case of Kembata Tembaro Zone, Halaba Special Woreda, Sidama (Borcha, Loka, Abaya and Bora), Gurage Zone (Meskan/two Kebeles; Mareko 16 Kebeles) shortage of drinking water due to water stress has been observed at different water points (these days most water points are almost dried according to the Regional EW office report). Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] [3] Amhara Shortage of pasture and Drinking Water:- Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been reported over North Shewa (Minjar Shenkora), Wage Hemra (Zikuala and Sekota), North Wollo (Lasta, Habru, Mekate and Bugna), and East Gojam (Enebsesarmidir and Enargina Enawuga). Somali Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water:- Shortage of pasture and drinking water has been reported over Legehida, Slad, Kumbi, Dehan, Segeg, Dekasiftu and Dolo Odo Woredas including Moyale (southern part). As a result unusual livestock movement was observed over some areas like Legehida, Sald, Eastern Bok, Geladi, Berena, Ferfer, Gode, Kelafo and East Imi. NDVI Picture As can be seen from NDIV picture (1 – 10 March 2015 METEOSAT) below normal vegetation greenness was observed over western, central and southern SNNPR, parts of southern and central Oromiya due to the prolonged below normal rainfall condition in the areas. As a result of the stress condition, which is mainly favorable for fire outbreak, most parts of the aforementioned areas exhibited fire hazards based on the Regional EW Burou report. Requirement and Response:- According to the humanitarian Document officially released on 06th March 2015, an estimated 2.9 million people require relief food assistance in 2015. Of the total needy population, Oromia Region holds 38%, Somali Region 31%, Tigrai 12%.and Amhara 6%. The total gross emergency food and non-food requirement for 2015 amounts to USD 386million. Considering available resource amounting to USD 41million, the net total requirement stands at USD 344 million. The net food and TSF requirement totals to 353 thousand Mt, with estimated cost around USD 277million. Additionally, an estimated USD 64.4 million is required to implement prioritized emergency interventions for the non-food sector. Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] [4] The prioritization committee meeting held on March 12th, 2015 have agreed on the following points: The food basket for the 1st Round 2015 will be Cereal, Pulse and oil and all agencies agreed to exclude CSB. PSNP contingency budget will be used in PSNP areas except Somali, Afar Regions, and Pastoral areas of Oromia Regions (Borena zone, part of Bale zone, and pastoral areas of East and West Hararghe zones) will be provided with food ration. In Addition JEOP, H&S and DRMFSS Relief woredas will receive food. DRMFSS will assist a total of 1,435,702 beneficiaries (630,388 by food, 627,588 by contingency budget cash and the rest 177,726 with Relief cash). H&S will assist 838,958 beneficiaries (722,618 food and 116,340 by Relief cash) whereas JEOP will assist 669,038 by food only. With regard to food assistance, DRMFSS will be expected to dispatch 10,688 Mt for 630,388 food beneficiaries; WFP H&S will dispatch 12,248 Mt food for 722,618 beneficiaries while JEOP to dispatch 11,340 Mt food for 669,038 beneficiaries. All agencies are advised to start dispatch as soon as possible. The transfer value of Contingency budget cash will be calculated based on 15kg cereal and 4kg pulses per person per month. Nutrition condition Strengthening emergency nutrition responses in hotspot woredas: Following the release of February hotspot woredas list, Partners were expressed to continue and expand to new hotspot woredas in order to strengthen emergency nutrition responses. During the regular MANTF meeting on 5th March 2015, it was also agreed with partners to ensure that proposals for strengthening emergency nutrition responses are submitted to donors by around mid-March 2015. Accordingly, IMC submitted the proposal to OCHA –HRF to cover priority woredas namely Shalla, Siraro and Aris Nagelle in West Arsi zone, Oromiya region while ACF submitted the proposal to OCHA –HRF to cover Sekota Zuria, Ziquala and Gazgibla woredas of Hag Himra zone of the Amara region. CONCERN Ethiopia is currently providing the support to priority one woredas of Tselemt and also finalizing funding proposal preparations to submit to OCHA-HRF and OFDA to support Janamora, Borena, Lasta, Ebinat and Mekdela woredas in Amhara region.
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